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The Blue Dot List: Our Newest Feature for Finding Top Stocks

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The Blue Dot List: Our Newest Feature for Finding Top Stocks 20 » 19 Q2 STOCK GUIDE The Blue Dot List: Our newest feature for finding top stocks Stock Guide // 2019 Q2 At MarketSmith, our team is always looking for ways to improve our product and help our members invest better. Our newest featured stock list is quickly becoming a favorite among both long-time members and our in- house team: RS Line Blue Dot, better known around here as “The Blue Dot List.” Check out this issue’s feature article for a full rundown of what Blue Dot stocks are and why you should be checking this new list frequently. For our featured interview this month, we talked to Joe Fahmy, a profession- al Investment Advisory Representative with nearly two decades of trading experience. Joe has been using MarketSmith for years to find and evaluate new stock trades through a fundamental and technical lens. He shares some of his experiences in the market, as well as his predictions for Q2. Finally, we’re excited to introduce a new regular feature to our Stock Guide readers. In Good Trade/Bad Trade, we’ll talk to one of our in-house experts about two of their recent trades—one winner and one loser—and see what they did right and wrong. This month’s subject is MarketSmith Product Coach Andrew Rocco, who dives into some revealing technical analysis of Baozun (BZUN) and talks about his mistakes buying into the volatile Tesla (TSLA). As always, if you have any questions or comments about your investing research or any MarketSmith features, please call one of our product coaches at (800) 831-2525 or email us at [email protected]. We’re here to help you make more money in the market. Best Returns, The MarketSmith Team MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q2 S & P 500 INDEX S & P 500 Index CLOSE 2834.4 3050 2940.91 2950 2916.50 2850 2815.15 2791.47 2800.18 2750 2717.49 2722.27 2691.99 200 DAY 2650 MOVING AVERAGE 2594.62 2603.54 50 DAY 2550 2553.80 MOVING AVERAGE 2450 2350 2346.58 2250 DAILY VOLUME AND 50-DAY AVERAGE DAILY VOLUME LINE 2.5 B 1.4 B 850 M 500 M 30 13 27 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 31 14 28 12 26 9 23 7 21 4 18 1 15 1 15 29 APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 2019 FEB MAR NASDAQ COMPOSITE NASDAQ Composite CLOSE 7729.32 8300 8133.30 8107.38 8100 7933.31 7806.60 7900 7700 7604.24 7486.51 7500 7319.58 7419.56 7332.92 7300 200 DAY MOVING 7100 AVERAGE 6900 6922.83 50 DAY 6805.96 6830.76 MOVING AVERAGE 6700 6500 6300 6190.16 6100 5900 DAILY VOLUME AND 50-DAY AVERAGE DAILY VOLUME LINE 4 B 2.5 B 1.6 B 850 M 30 13 27 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 31 14 28 12 26 9 23 7 21 4 18 1 15 1 15 29 APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 2019 FEB MAR 2 Table of Contents Market Charts ..........................................................2 The MarketSmith Blue Dot .............................................4 Blue Dot Special* .......................................................6 Tegna Inc (TGNA) .....................................................7 Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI) ......................................7 Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) .....................................8 Gray Television Inc (GTN) .............................................8 S S & C Technologies (SSNC). .9 Palo Alto Networks (PANW) ..........................................9 A Conversation with Joe Fahmy .......................................10 Earnings & Margins* ....................................................13 Arista Networks Inc (ANET) ...........................................14 Camtek Ltd (CAMT) ...................................................14 Cabot Microelectronics (CCMP) ......................................15 Fortinet Inc (FTNT) ....................................................15 Good Trade/Bad Trade: Andrew Rocco ................................16 Feature Highlight: Stock Ideas Button .................................20 Resources ...............................................................22 Connect with Us ........................................................23 *All screen results are computer-generated and were run on March 29, 2019. 3 MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q2 l Feature Article Feature Article: The MarketSmith Blue Dot MarketSmith’s newest stock list is already one of its most popular among subscribers. It’s called RS Line Blue Dot, and if you’re not checking it for new stock ideas, you could be missing out. Here’s How It Works Stocks make the RS Line Blue Dot list when they satisfy two criteria: first, they’ve hit a 52-week high in their Relative Strength line. This is where you’ll notice a translucent blue dot appear on the Relative Strength line of the stock’s chart. Second, the stock is currently building a base. If both of these conditions occur, the stock goes on the list for 90 days. You can access the list by clicking on the “Open Stock Ideas” button in the top-right corner on any MarketSmith chart. What does that mean? Two things. The first thing stocks on the Blue Dot list have shown is that they are outperforming the market (specifically, the S&P 500) in the strongest way possible. This is important because the highest-potential stocks will show strength by outperforming the market in any market conditions. If the market’s down, good stocks will outperform by treading water and setting up for a spike when the market character changes to an uptrend. In good market conditions, the best stocks will offer the biggest gains relative to other high-performance names. Ultimately, it’s all about maximizing opportunity; since you can only buy a finite amount of stocks, it makes sense to prioritize the best ones. 4 MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q2 The second important characteristic of Blue Dot stocks is that they’re building a base, which means you’re not chasing an extended stock that has less potential for short-term growth. After all, even the best stocks take time to retrench after sizeable runs. A stock that’s currently in a base will have a clear buy point in MarketSmith thanks to the Pattern Recognition feature. Blue Dot Case Study: KEYS Let’s look at a recent Blue Dot stock. Keysight (KEYS) is a company that stands to benefit from the forthcoming adoption of the 5G standard in wireless data. To bring 5G networks and smart devices to market, wireless service providers and electronics makers use Keysight’s technologies to test and optimize their designs. The company itself was showing very bullish fundamentals in late 2018: accelerating earnings, steady sales and a strong ROE. KEYS started forming a cup-shaped base in August 2018; as it began to form the right side of the base, its Relative Strength line hit a new high eight times during December 2018 and January 2019! Keep in mind, KEYS was outperforming the S&P during the December market correction that dragged down stocks across the board—a classic sign that a stock is one to watch when a new uptrend starts. To recap, as KEYS neared its buy point in January 2019, it had very strong fundamentals and eight recent Blue Dot appearances in MarketSmith—a rare combination of superior technical and fundamental strength aligning at the right time. On January 24, 2019, KEYS broke out in volume 91% above average and rose 4.5% from the day prior. It closed up in price 19 out of the next 21 trading days before entering a +20% profit target zone. Stocks don’t get much easier to hold than that. 5 Blue Dot Special Find the strongest Blue Dot stocks This screen builds on the Blue Dot list criteria to screen for stocks in a strong industry group with 90th-percentile fundamentals, strong liquidity and positive demand. Screen created by Arnie Gutierrez, MarketSmith Product Coach COMPANY (SYMBOL) INDUSTRY GROUP RS RATING PAGE Tegna Inc (TGNA) Media-Radio/Tv 99 7 Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI) Media-Radio/Tv 99 7 Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) Medical-Biomed/Biotech 99 8 Gray Television Inc (GTN) Media-Radio/Tv 99 8 S S & C Technologies (SSNC) Computer Sftwr-Financial 99 9 Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Computer Sftwr-Security 99 9 Visit MarketSmith.com/learn/stockguide to load the criteria for this and other Stock Guide screens directly into your MarketSmith screener. *All screen results are computer-generated and were run on March 29, 2019. This screen can also be found on marketsmith.com in shared screens. 6 Tegna Inc (TGNA) MarketSmith.com // 2019 Q2 TEGNA INC(TGNA) NYSE 216.1 SHRS / 213.9 FLT / AVG VOL 2.32MIL $14.10(OH -9%) MEDIA-RADIO/TV tegna.com OPERATES 49 TELEVISION STATIONS AND AFFILIATED ONLINE SITES 3/19 EXPECTS Q1 2019 REVENUES GROWTH OF LOW-SINGLE DIGITS. COVERING ONE THIRD OF THE U.S. POPULATION. SHORT INT 5.7 DAYS -22% GROWTH RATE -3% DEBT 220% 2.28 X BK VALUE FUNDS 52% OPTIONS ON AM/MS EARNINGS STAB 17 NEW CEO 6/17 INVENTORY TO. BANKS 1% UP/DOWN 1.5 EPS RANK 80 TIMELINESS A R&D N/A MGMT 1% EX-DIV 3/7 PE 8 (0.4XS&P) ACC/DIST B RET ON EQUITY 34% ALPHA 0.08 YIELD 2.0% 5 YR PE 6 - 17 SMR RATING A CASH FLOW $2.24 BETA 0.98 EARNINGS (DEC) HI LO GROUP REL STR 87 RS EPS COMPOSITE RATING 99 13$ 2.02 $ 14 8 GrayTelA GTNA 97 99 QTR 4 QTR 1 PRICE 14 1.22 17 12 GrayTelevi GTN 96 99 SCALE 15 1.44 20 13 NexstarMed NXST 96 99 ScrippsEWA SSP 96 77 16 16 1.69 16 11 15.58 17 1.08 16 11 Sinclair SBGI 94 94 18 1.83 15 10 QTR 3 19 1.31 EST -28% ↓ 20 2.12 EST +62% ↓ QTR 2 14 13.59 12.49 12.16 12 11.10 11.25 10.80 10.53 10.46 10.37 10.24 10 10.00 10.11 92 R S LINE 8 VS SP500 VOLUME 8 M 3 M 1.1 M 13 27 11 25 8 22 6 20 3 17 31 14 28 12 26 9 23 7 21 4 18 1 15 1 15 29 MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 19 FEB MAR EPS DUE 5/8 QUARTER ENDED MAR 31,18 QUARTER ENDED JUN 30,18 QUARTER ENDED SEP 30,18 QUARTER ENDED DEC 31,18 EARNINGS $ 0.33 VS 0.25 +32% 0.36 VS 0.29 +24% 0.40 VS 0.23 +74% 0.74 VS 0.32 +131% SALES MIL.
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