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Asia's Response to Climate Change and Natural Disasters

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Asia's Response to Climate Change and Natural Disasters Asia’s Response to Climate Change and Natural Disasters and Natural Change Climate to Response Asia’s Asia’s Response to Climate Change and Natural Disasters Implications for an Evolving Regional CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & Architecture CSIS INTERNATIONAL STUDIES A Report of the CSIS Asian Regionalism Initiative project directors 1800 K Street, NW | Washington, DC 20006 Charles W. Freeman III Tel: (202) 887-0200 | Fax: (202) 775-3199 Michael J. Green E-mail: [email protected] | Web: www.csis.org editors and coordinators Robert S. Wang Jeffrey D. Bean authors Victor D. Cha Charles W. Freeman III Michael J. Green Sarah O. Ladislaw Freeman David Pumphrey Teresita Schaffer Amy Searight / Green Robert S. Wang Stacey White July 2010 ISBN 978-0-89206-604-9 CSIS CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & Ë|xHSKITCy066049zv*:+:!:+:! CSIS INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Asia’s Response to Climate Change and Natural Disasters Implications for an Evolving Regional Architecture A Report of the CSIS Asian Regionalism Initiative project directors Charles W. Freeman III Michael J. Green editors and coordinators Robert S. Wang Jeffrey D. Bean authors Victor D. Cha Charles W. Freeman III Michael J. Green Sarah O. Ladislaw David Pumphrey Teresita Schaffer Amy Searight Robert S. Wang Stacey White July 2010 About CSIS In an era of ever-changing global opportunities and challenges, the Center for Strategic and Inter- national Studies (CSIS) provides strategic insights and practical policy solutions to decisionmak- ers. CSIS conducts research and analysis and develops policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke at the height of the Cold War, CSIS was dedicated to the simple but urgent goal of finding ways for America to survive as a nation and prosper as a people. Since 1962, CSIS has grown to become one of the world’s preeminent public policy institutions. Today, CSIS is a bipartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C. More than 220 full-time staff and a large network of affiliated scholars focus their expertise on defense and security; on the world’s regions and the unique challenges inherent to them; and on the issues that know no boundary in an increasingly connected world. Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn became chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 1999, and John J. Hamre has led CSIS as its president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed in this publica- tion should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2010 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. ISBN 978-0-89206-604-9 Cover photo credits: (Top) Indonesian NGO workers offload supplies from a U.S. Navy helicopter on Sumatra in Operation Unified Assistance on January 18, 2005, during international relief ef- forts following the Indian Ocean tsunami. DoD photo by Petty Officer 1st Class Alan D. Monyelle, U.S. Navy, U.S. Department of Defense, http://osd.dtic.mil/photos/Jan2005/050113-N-9885M-296. html. (Bottom left) NASA satellite photo of Tropical Cyclone Ului in the South Pacific Ocean, on March 18, 2010, http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=43180. (Bottom right) Wind farm at Bangui Bay on the Ilocos Norte, Philippines, http://www.flickr.com/photos/ adrcataylo/3146364197/. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Pubication Data Available on request Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20006 Tel: (202) 775-3119 Fax: (202) 775-3199 Web: www.csis.org contents Executive Summary v 1. Introduction 1 Charles W. Freeman III and Michael J. Green 2. The Politics of Climate Change in Asia 3 Charles W. Freeman III and Amy Searight 3. Secure, Low-Carbon Pathways in Asia 13 David Pumphrey and Sarah O. Ladislaw 4. Asian Regional Institutions and Climate Change 44 Teresita Schaffer 5. Disaster Management in Asia: The Promise of Regional Architecture 61 Stacey White 6. The Geometry of Asia’s Architecture: Traditional and Transnational Security 99 Victor D. Cha 7. Conclusion 117 Robert S. Wang Abbreviations and Acronyms 119 Acknowledgments 121 About the Contributors 123 | iii executive summary In this volume, we examine how Asia as a region has responded to the nontraditional and trans- boundary security threats of climate change and natural disasters. We discuss its implications for the evolution of regional institutions to meet future challenges. While climate change is generally acknowledged as a threat to the region, Asia as a whole has not responded forcefully or in unity to this challenge. Many governments do not see this threat as urgent or of high priority, given pressing and often competing demands for sustaining livelihood and economic growth, especially among the more populous developing countries. They look to the United States and other advanced industrial countries to take on greater responsibility for meeting this global challenge. At the same time, however, there is increasing awareness of the potentially catastrophic risks associated with climate change, particularly among those affected or likely to be affected. A number of countries have set their own targets and, often with external assistance and within regional organizations, have undertaken measures to increase energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions to curb pollution while enhancing energy security. Indonesia and some of its neighbors in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have begun to address the effects of transborder haze. Moreover, some governments aspire to take the lead in global climate change negotiations to enhance their prestige, while others seek economic gains from emerging “green industries.” In contrast to climate change, Asia’s response to natural disasters has been more vigorous. A series of major disasters that started with the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 has generated an outpouring of international assistance and proliferation of regional initiatives. In 2005, ASEAN members signed the first legally binding treaty in the world for comprehensive interstate disaster management. In 2010, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum decided to elevate its task force on emergency preparedness to a permanent working group. Governments and regional institutions are also looking beyond immediate humanitarian relief missions to developmental issues of mitigation and adaptation to reduce disaster risk. There is increasing focus on slow-onset disasters related to climate change that may affect critical water sources in the Himalayas and along the Mekong River Basin. Our study cautions, however, that these initiatives have not cemented the region’s ability to respond to future disasters. We discuss problems related to the lack of coordination at different levels, the uncertain role of the military and continued gaps in resource and expertise in key organizations. We recommend steps be taken to rationalize the multitude of initiatives to improve coherence but, more importantly, to develop greater technical expertise and on-the-ground capability among existing institutions. Although Asia lacks, and is not likely to develop, a single umbrella organization such as the European Union or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, our study concludes that the region’s patchwork of overlapping institutions can work to address problems in response not only to local environmental hazards and natural disasters but also to other security threats, through arrange- | v ments like the Six-Party Talks on the Korean Peninsula. Responses are effective when there is consensus on common threats and interests and when individual governments and institutions are willing to take on responsibility for forging collective action. These informal arrangements and the pluralistic structure of overlapping regional institutions are often more flexible and able to circumvent the constraints of political rivalries and formal organizations, as in the cases of Cyclone Nargis in Burma or the Sichuan earthquake in China. Moreover, we see strong bilateral ties as complementing rather than undermining these multilat- eral arrangements. Nonetheless, we also acknowledge that such ad hoc arrangements face issues of duplication and seldom address broader and longer-term regional challenges, such as climate change or other security issues. Current efforts should focus on strengthening and, in some cases, further institutionalizing existing arrangements to increase transparency and accountability and bring sharper focus on Asia’s long-term challenges. Looking further ahead, particularly with respect to U.S. policy, we believe that the U.S. role will continue to be critical in supporting the region’s response to many of the natural disasters it will face. At the same time, the United States should seek to focus Asia’s attention increasingly on the long-term threat of climate change and other slow-onset disasters. Not only is the region expected to be a major victim of the consequences of climate change, but it is also a major source of the threat itself. We recommend that the United States not only continue its bilateral and mul- tilateral programs to increase energy efficiency and the use of alternative energy and clean coal technology but also begin to explore broad, secure, low-carbon pathways within the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate. We recommend that the partnership expand its membership and mission by including other major emitters like Indonesia and countries that expect to be severely affected by climate change to address the related threat of fresh water short- ages and flooding along the Mekong River basin and coastal waters. We conclude that U.S. leader- ship in the partnership can also generate the momentum needed to achieve a global agreement on climate change. vi | asia’s response to climate change and natural disasters introduction 1 Charles W. Freeman III and Michael J. Green It has become something of an axiom in policy circles to refer to the twenty-first century as the “Asian Century.” The numbers certainly bear out that assertion.
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