Newsletter of the TWIN CITIES CHAPTER of the AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY May 2010 Vol. 31 No. 9 Editor: Kevin L. Huyck

The May meeting of the Twin Cities Chapter is Tuesday, May 18, 2010 at the Chanhassen WFO. If inclement conditions occur on the day of the event the picnic will be moved in- doors to the NORSHC conference room on the southwest side of the building. http://maps.google.com/?q=1733+lake+dr+west+55317+(National+Weather+Service,+Chanhassen).

science fair judges. Without your help, we wouldn't be the great May Meeting: Year-in-Review, Plan- (and growing) chapter that we are. Your contributions were ning 2010-11, Elections, oh, and a Picnic. invaluable. Thank you. -Cb Come join us behind the WFO in Chanhassen on Member Tidbits May 18th for our annual picnic, review, Officer Editor, Kevin Huyck, has accepted a position with Meridian Elections and planning Environmental Technology, Inc in Grand Forks. session for the next Congratulations to Mike Bardou who is heading to Chicago. Chapter year. This will be Mike will be part of an expanded Aviation forecasting program at your last chance to visit the WFO. His presence will be missed at MPX and within the with the fine and friendly Chapter. members of the Chapter in a fun and organized way until September. We're also electing Officers so if you didn't already If you have news you would like to share with the Chapter, get your absentee ballot in you'll have a chance to vote for the please contact Meredith [email protected]. people who you think will best represent the Chapter in the coming year. There will also be food, a party sub from Subway. News and Notes Come join us for this celebration of a year well done. Plus you'll get to be in all sorts of swell photos! Please bring $7.00 for the food and beverages. Exact change only, please. NWS for Storm Reports, Updated! As Chris pointed out in the President’s Corner: Chris Bovitz April newsletter the National Weather Service is conducting an [email protected] experiment to determine whether Twitter can be utilized as a storm reporting method. Since Chris's story last month I've And we've come to the end of another discovered that the Twin Cities Weather Forecast Office is also year. participating in the experiment. For more details including I know I said I felt I had finished my instructions f o r participation p l e a s e v i s i t term as president, but since no one else http://www.weather.gov/stormreports/. has come forward, I decided to come out of near-retirement for one more year. But Call for Bloggers this is it. Well, assuming I'm re-elected. Member Nicolle Morock is starting her own company, Then this would be the last. But I digress. Whatever-Weather.com. The company goal is to become the one- I think we've had one of our best years in ... well, as long as stop shop for meteorologists, their employers, and weather geeks I've been paying attention. We've extended our reach into areas in general. In addition to hosting free job postings, the site offers where we typically haven't, and I hope we continue that next a store, a discussion forum, and blogs. Nicolle is currently seek- year. I'd like to think that we're in our ascending node. And with ing bloggers on any topic. If you would like to share your in- the expected addition of affiliation with the National Weather sights in a blog format, please contact her at Association, I think we're in for an even better year next year, [email protected]. Some examples of past blog topics in- and, frankly, I'd like to be around for it. So yeah, there's a little clude: new technology coming online, and a hiring manager writ- selfishness there. Sorry about that. ing about qualities for which he/she looks in a candidate for em- I don't have much else to say than to thank everyone who ployment. Also, please contact her if you are a hiring manager helped volunteered their time this year with all facets of our and would like to post jobs on the site. group, from the elected officers to the committee chairs to all the -- News and Notes continued on Page 3 Forecast Office on his research. During the winter there were Meeting Minutes: April 27, 2010 several days with significant cold air incursions following frontal The April meeting of the Twin Cities Chapter of the AMS was passages. BUFKIT profiles suggested abundant moisture for called to order at about 7:10 pm on April 27 at St. Cloud State cloud coverage in the mornings on the given days but surface ob- University. President Chris Bovitz and Newsletter Editor Kevin servations for the events studies showed clear to few clouds dur- Huyck, two Chapter members, four professors, and two students ing the period when clouds were forecast. This is a significant were in attendance. After a short round of introductions the issue for aircraft operations at Minneapolis International Airport March minutes were reviewed by memory since the text was un- available at the meeting. Since the hard copy of the minutes and the treasurer's report were left at the homes of the two officers no votes were taken to approve the reading of the March minutes or the Treasurer's Report. The next order of business on the agenda was a vote on two proposed constitutional amendments. The first would make the position of Newsletter Editor a committee chair position instead of an officer. The second amendment splits the position of Secretary/Treasurer into two officer positions. Both amendments passed unanimously. There was no new in- formation on the petition to the National Weather Association. The petition has been mailed to NWA Headquarters in April. In March there were several sponsored activities that were briefly reviewed. These events included the Minnesota Skywarn Workshop, the Northern Plains Convective Workshop, the Min- nesota State Science and Engineering Fair, and a speaking en- Chris presents umbrellas to Russ and Shawn gagement to cover severe weather preparedness for a local manu- since overcast skies would necessitate Instrument Landing Sys- facturing company. In May we have several events upcoming; tem operations which would slow the operating tempo of the May 1, South Central/Southwest Minnesota Regional Science take-offs and landings at the airport. Operating costs for modern Fair (Elementary Division), May 18, May TCAMS meeting at airliners are rather high and each minute of additional flying time the MPX WFO for our picnic, elections, year in review, and plan- due to clouds is significant making accurate forecasts of cloud ning session for the 2010-11 year. The business part of the meet- coverage very important. With the clear skies the hypothesis that ing was adjourned at 7:27pm was developed was that perhaps the clouds were comprised of The first presentation of the evening was from Russ Joseph on 100% ice crystals which might have had different optical proper- ties than the standard liquid droplets or water/ice mixed phase clouds. Editor's Notes

It seems we've come to another logical end. It is the end of our Chapter year, the end of my time as Newsletter Editor, the end of the Newsletter Editor being an elected position, and the end of my time in the Twin Cities. None of these changes are altogether unexpected. I knew when I was elected to Russ discusses the the C program used as a first guess for the high temp this role in 2008 that I would pass it on at some point and that my a study of the Sundgaard Method and Determining Weaknesses. career would eventually take me away from the Twin Cities Russ undertook a study of a method that a local television met- where I've spent the best six years of my life. eorologist and former St. Cloud student Sven Sundgaard uses as In discussions with the other Officers a decision was made that a first guess for the afternoon high temperature. To study the perhaps the Newsletter Editor shouldn't be shoehorned into a method Russ used the 12Z sounding information from Chan- single officer role but rather should be anyone in the Chapter hassen, MN for 2009. Russ found that the method was generally who has interest in taking on the challenge. We put the question too cool. Main reasons for the forecasting technique's failures to the membership at the April meeting and all in attendance are likely linked to warm air advection in the cases where the agreed that it was a good decision. We hope that by making the technique proved too cool and rainfall and heavy cloud cover in Editor the chair of the Newsletter Committee that more people instances where the technique was too warm. will participate in this very important and rather enjoyable task. The second presentation was by Shawn DeVinny who spoke It seems that each Spring presents a challenge for all members about a few situations from the winter of 2008-2009 where cloud of the weather community. Between science fairs, wrapping up cover was forecast but clear skies were reported. Shawn collab- Chapter business for the year, preparation for the coming severe orated with the Aviation Focal Point at the Minneapolis Weather -- Editor's Notes continued on Page 3 – News and Notes con't from page 1 you please read through the Technical Implementation Notice at http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/tin10-20gfs_mos.txt.

RIDGE 2 Changeover Date Set Newsletter Contributions Welcome Even though we're in a transitional period we are still looking The new, experimental RIDGE 2 radar display we first covered for contributors for our newsletter. Join the folks Anthony, Tony, in the March 2009 issue is nearing the end of its experimental Chuck, Matt, and Bryan by contributing something to the news- phase. On June 24, 2010 the final version of the RIDGE 2 dis- letter. We all have our own interests in weather and meteorology play will become available and on July 6, 2010 the RIDGE 2 to share. With the new digital-only format for this newsletter pages will replace the current RIDGE display at length isn't an issue, we can include numerous articles and fea- http://radar.weather.gov. After the RIDGE 2 products transition ture . All we need are the interested individuals to help out to operational status the beta pages at http://radar.srh.noaa.gov and put pen (or pixel) to paper. You don't have to be a master will be discontinued. novelist to contribute and our editorial staff will work with con- For more details about this change you can read the Service tributors to polish their works in preparation for publishing. If C h a n g e Notification a t you have questions or would like more information please con- http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/scn10-25ridge2.txt. tact Meredith by email at [email protected]. VORTEX 2 Intercepts its First Tornado of 2010 --If you have news, notes, or other information you'd like to From the reports we're getting in Minnesota it sounds like share email Meredith at [email protected]. VORTEX 2 intercepted their first tornado of 2010 on May 14. th The researchers deployed on May 10 but the storms were mov- – Editor's Notes con't from Page 2 ing too fast to conduct a safe deployment, although some data was collected. Patrick Marsh has some details on his blog at weather season, safety lectures, school presentations, Skywarn http://www.patricktmarsh.com/2010/05/day-134-vortex-ii- training, and all the rest we sometimes meet ourselves coming tornadoes/ and more details will likely follow soon from the and going at the door. The same can be said for me and thank's VORTEX 2 crew and you can follow their blog at goes to Chris for producing last month's newsletter when time https://secure.nssl.noaa.gov/v2talk/. It's a good thing the team slipped away from me. found a tornado when they did since the next few weeks look Everyone's efforts are valuable and they enrich not only the pretty quiet across the Plains. Nice job! participant but also those in leadership roles. Perhaps at the picnic this year you reflect on what we've accomplished this year Fire Weather Receives Bullet Treatment and consider becoming more involved in the Chapter. As more The National Weather Service has added Fire Weather Watches members participate we can add new activities and outreach. and Warnings to the list of Non-Precipitation products using an I'd like to thank all the folks who've helped me along as Editor. experimental bulleted format. The Fire Weather Products will First to Kurt and Rainie Scholz. Kurt and Rainie both spent join the Winter Weather Messages and other Non-Precipitation more years than I know working on this newsletter and left it in messages currently using the bulleted format. This change al- great shape for their successors. Karen Hatfield picked up the lows users to more readily identify the threats pertinent to the mantle after Kurt moved on to other challenges. Karen relocated message and assess the threat quickly. The experimental format to Oklahoma only one month after taking over as Editor. I found will be used from May 12, 2010 until October 29, 2010 except in her encouragement as I took over irreplaceable. situations when local offices may temporarily revert to the non- I'd also like to thank the numerous contributors who have bulleted format to maintain mission critical warning services. Of regularly or irregularly submitted content to help fill out this note, MPX has issued five Red Flag Warnings this spring, the newsletter and make it something of interest with an abundance highest tally on record for the time period! Thanks to Matt of good information. Of that group I'd like to thank Anthony Friedlein for sharing that information with me. Stender in particular. Anthony's column is missing this month More information about the bulleted format test point your (you can tell since the newsletter is so short); this is the first browser to http://products.weather.gov/detaile.php?selrow=398 month I can recall not seeing one of his history articles. I am or you can read the Public Information Statement announcing the always excited to see what nuggets he's unearthed from our a d d i t i o n o f t h e F i r e W e a t h e r p r o d u c t s a t weather past and am rarely disappointed. http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/pns10bullet_warnings.txt Lastly, I'd also like to take a moment to thank my bride, More Changes Coming to GFS MOS Products Pamela. As most writers know the first person to read your Tuesday, July 13, 2010 starting with the 12Z run there will be manuscript is usually your partner. The same is true in my case. several changes to the GFS-based short-range (MAV) and exten- I am blessed to have as my wife a woman who is a talented ded-range (MEX) MOS guidance BUFR products. Among the writer in her own right and is more than capable of holding up changes planned is the extension of the MEX product to 264 her end of a disagreement about whether I can mix metaphors or hours (11 days) for 2-meter temperature, min/max temperature, confuse tenses. Her contributions have been invaluable. 2-meter dewpoint, wind speed and direction, and 12-hour prob- I have met many people through my association with this ability of precipitation. Another planned change is to swap out Chapter. My time here has been very rewarding and I am the Total Sky Cover with Opaque Sky Cover in the MAV guid- thankful for all the good friends I have made. I will certainly ance. The Opaque Sky Cover was originally discussed in the stay in touch with the Chapter through Chris, Meredith, Bryan, T e c h n i c a l Implementation N o t i c e and Matt and I'll check up on the Chapter from time to time.. http://www.weather.gov/os/notification/tin07-34juncloud.txt. Thanks for allowing me this opportunity to serve. I'll never For more details about this change and how it might impact forget it. -Kevin