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The Strategic Impact of Energy Dependency THE STRATEGIC IMPACT OF ENERGY DEPENDENCY Edited by Brian MacDonald Vimy Paper 2009 The Conference of Defence Associations Institute THE STRATEGIC IMPACT OF ENERGY DEPENDENCY L’IMPACT STRATEGIQUE DE LA DEPENDANCE ENERGETIQUE Edited by Sous la direction de Brian MacDonald Vimy Paper 2009 Cahier Vimy 2009 The Conference of Defence Associations Institute L‘Institut de la Conférence des associations de la défense The Vimy Papers Initiated in 2006, the Vimy Papers are published on an annual basis by the Conference of Defence Associations Institute. Each volume offers expert analysis by respected Canadian and international scholars and military professionals dealing with a specific and important subject related to Canada‘s strategic interests and national defence. Previous volumes can be obtained from the CDA Institute: 2006 - Creating an Acquisition Model that Delivers 2007 - Defence Requirements for Canada’s Arctic 2008 - Canadians and Asia-Pacific Security The views expressed in this volume are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the CDA Institute. The Conference of Defence Associations Institute The Conference of Defence Associations Institute, based in Ottawa, Canada, provides public information services on national security and defence issues by conducting studies, seminars and symposia, and publishing their results in print and on its website. The CDA Institute is a charitable and non-partisan organization whose ability to prosecute its mandate depends on private donations. The Conference of Defence Associations Institute 222 Somerset Street West, suite 400B Ottawa (Ontario), Canada K2P 2G3 Phone: +1 (613) 236-9903 Fax: +1 (613) 236-8191 Web: www.cda-cdai.ca - Email: [email protected] Library and Archives Canada Cataloguing in Publication The strategic impact of energy dependency / edited by Brian MacDonald. (Vimy paper ; 4) Includes bibliographical references. Text chiefly in English, some French. ISBN 978-0-9698881-9-2 1. Energy policy--Canada. 2. Canada--Military policy. 3. Energy industries-- Political aspects. 4. Security, International. 5. Geopolitics. I. MacDonald, Brian, 1939- II. Conference of Defence Associations Institute III. Series: Vimy paper ; 4 HD9502.A2S82 2009 333.79 C2009-905941-X Acknowledgements Financial Support The publication of this volume was made possible in part through grants from the Department of National Defence. Cover Production The cover photograph was provided by the Combat Camera section of the Department of National Defence. Cover post-production by LCol (Ret'd) Gordon Metcalfe, CD Authors and Staff As the editor of this book it has been my pleasure to work with an outstanding group of authors, and I thank them for their patience and understanding as we have made the various mutual adjustments that are always part of a book making process. I would especially like to acknowledge the support of the Conference of Defence Associations Institute‘s key staff and stakeholders, and particularly the unwavering enthusiasm and encouragement of its President John Scott Cowan, Executive Director Alain Pellerin, and of Richard Evraire, Chairman of the Conference of Defence Associations (whose skills as a gifted copy-editor in both official languages had been unknown to me before I began editing the Vimy Papers). And I acknowledge a particular debt to our Executive Secretary, Gord Metcalfe, whose graphics skills were invaluable, and especially to Peter Forsberg, our Public Affairs Officer, and Arnav Manchanda, our Defence Policy Analyst, all of whom cheerfully carried out the myriad of little, and not so little, administrative and behind-the-scenes tasks that soak up so much time but are absolutely essential to a book‘s construction. Finally, I would also like to thank our indefatigable translator, Laurentin Lévesque, who undertook translations and retranslations with good humour and professionalism. Table of Contents Foreword John Scott Cowan 1 Introduction Brian MacDonald 8 The Canadian Forces’ Bedevilling Dependency on Oil Gary Rice 15 Energy and the Arctic Peter Johnson 32 Ripple Effects: Russia, the Energy Card, and the Medvedev Doctrine J.L. Black 51 European Energy Security: Moving Beyond the Riga and Bucharest Summits Andrew Monaghan 70 New Players in the Energy Great Game: India’s Increasing Global Presence Divyabh Manchanda 82 Energy Security in the Coastal Zone James Kraska 96 The New American Administration and The Problem of the Security of Energy Supplies Charles Doran 111 The Energy Security Challenge: Developing an Integrated American Response Brian Wilson and Jeff Luster 126 Implications for Canadian Defence Policy James Boutilier 141 Conclusions John Scott Cowan 150 Notes on Contributors 161 Table des matières Avant-propos John Scott Cowan 4 Introduction Brian MacDonald 11 La dépendance agaçante des Forces canadiennes à l’égard du pétrole Gary Rice 15 L’énergie et l’Arctique Peter Johnson 32 Des effets en chaîne : la Russie, la carte de l’énergie et la doctrine Medvedev J. Larry Black 51 La sécurité énergétique de l’Europe : au-delà des sommets de Riga et de Bucarest Andrew Monaghan 70 Nouveaux acteurs dans le grand jeu de l’énergie : la présence mondiale croissante de l’Inde Divyabh Manchanda 82 La sécurité énergétique dans la zone côtière James Kraska 96 La nouvelle administration américaine et le problème de la sécurité des approvisionnements en énergie Charles Doran 111 Le défi de la sécurité énergétique : l’élaboration d’une réponse américaine intégrée Brian Wilson et Jeff Luster 126 Implications pour la politique de défense du Canada James Boutilier 141 Conclusions John Scott Cowan 155 Nos Collaborateurs 164 Foreword John Scott Cowan For all of human history, and, according to the archaeological record, throughout pre-history as well, access to resources has been a strategic issue. Much of human confrontation and conflict has been over access to resources, frequently exacerbated by resource scarcity. In pre-history the resources deemed strategic were at first game and naturally occurring foodstuffs, followed later by land, water, domestic animals and workers. In antiquity, certain metals got added to the equation. But energy only became strategic with the industrial revolution. That first high-density transportable energy source was coal, and while its distribution was not uniform, with some states being especially favoured and others much less fortunate, its supply was so widespread and so extensive that the question of scarcity never arose, and indeed even today coal reserves are immense. In the 19th century there were so many sources that the only strategic consideration beyond keeping sea-lanes open was price. Today, the developed world has a huge appetite for energy and the developing world hopes to follow suit as fast as it can. And that energy has come to mean largely oil, with lesser but still significant roles for four other well established energy sources: coal, natural gas, hydroelectric, and nuclear. Immature technologies, such as wind, solar, biofuels and tidal power will increase in importance, but to a lesser extent and less quickly than their advocates hope. Costs aside, the first two are episodic, the third has a dubious net energy equation and the last, while potentially the most promising, has been resistant to easy technological solutions for its capture and conversion. In terms of total energy production, Canada is self- sufficient, in the simplistic sense that its entire production of energy and fuels roughly equals its total consumption. But this is misleading. Much of Canada‘s oil and gas is exported to the US from western Canada, as pipeline capacity is inadequate to supply the eastern portion of Canada from our own sources. Consequently, Canada is just as dependent as the United States (or China for that matter) upon free passage of trade on the high seas and upon stability in other oil-producing regions. Indeed, most oil markets are very tightly coupled. So in terms of grand strategy, Canada, like its closest allies, the US and European NATO members, remains vulnerable to oil being used as a weapon, and must be clearly engaged and vigilant about events in potentially problematic oil-producing zones such as the Middle East and Russia. And we are engaged in both because it validates our role in alliances and because we need constancy and predictability of trans-national energy supplies ourselves. So unrest and conflict in Iraq, truculence in Iran, a transitional kleptocracy in Russia, endless conflict between Israel and its unwelcoming neighbours, piracy off the coasts of failed states, and the recent prominence of an extreme fundamentalist movement in parts of the Muslim world (Dar al Islam) which hopes fervently for the collapse of the rest of the world (Dar al Harb), are all features which must inform and modify any Canadian approach to grand strategy. On the whole, however, Canada does grand strategy only by proxy, letting others lead and then demonstrating our sovereign status by deciding whether or not to join initiatives launched by others, and, when doing so, by retaining a degree of control over the extent of our participation and the attendant constraints (and ROE, in the case of military participation). In the twenty years since the end of the Cold War, Canada has not reached even a modest consensus on a cohesive Canadian vision of our contemporary interests, let alone a grand strategy to further them. Indeed, it is only very recently that it has become somewhat fashionable to acknowledge that we have interests. The previous mythology was that, not being a former colonial power, we had no interests, and our role in the world was exclusively to promote ―Canadian values‖, which were somehow to be preferred over the values of the other liberal democracies. Nonetheless, the beginnings of convergence across the political spectrum are apparent. Even the ―realists‖ seem to accept that some export of Canadian values may contribute to a more hospitable international milieu, and thus further our interests. And the ―idealists‖ are beginning to suspect that the post Cold War world might be dangerous even for benign Canada, and that, in keeping us secure and provided for, hope is not a plan.
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