June 2019 »The Deal of the Century and Jordan’s Dilemma By Suha Maayeh Trump’s “Deal of the Century“ is already making Amman apprehensive. supposed to end the decade long Jordan, a key Middle East ally for the EU Israeli-Palestinian conflict by and the US, has reasons to worry. It suggesting the final borders of Israel, fears the deal will resolve the conflict at Israeli-Palestinian political relations, its own expense and further tilt the the status of Jerusalem and the delicate demographic balance in this future of 5.4 million Palestinian country of 10 million in favor of the refugees. Although the content of Palestinian majority. the deal has not yet been revealed, Those concerns are prompted by Palestinians fear that it would end rumors already feeding a perception their hope for an independent that Jordan could turn into an Palestinian state in the 1967 borders alternative homeland for Palestinians, in the framework of a two-state- or that it would be asked to resettle solution. While Saudi-Arabia and the Palestinian refugees or forge a United Arab Emirates seem to be confederation with the West Bank. supporting the deal, Jordan – a major Jordan vehemently rejects such US ally in the Middle East and the scenarios, yet at the same time it is state with the longest Arab-Israeli facing immense pressure from allies to border – feels it has been left out of make painful concessions in return for consultations by the American side financial assistance, at a time the and it has voiced its disapproval of country’s economy is in the doldrums, any deal that would not realize the and resentment is running high against two-state solution. With a the eroding living conditions, Palestinian-majority population, corruption and deteriorating political Jordan, which is, however, a major reforms. recipient of US aid, will face a serious Officially, Jordan continues to pay lip dilemma if the “Deal of the Century” service to the two-state solution will follow along the above leading to an independent Palestinian mentioned lines. state on 4 June 1967 lines with East Jerusalem as its capital. It considers it Jordan is fretting about the U.S as the only path towards ending the envisioned middle east peace plan, Israeli Palestinian conflict. Such option pitched as the deal of the century to is clearly challenged, and with the US end the seven- decade old Israeli shift from the two- state solution and Palestinian conflict. Israel’s continued expansion of Although the details of the plan have settlements in the West Bank, it not been divulged yet, the leaks are Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. June 2019 2 2 remains unlikely that the Palestinians than 1.25 USD a day, according to a will have a sovereign state. FAFO study2. Buffeted by regional turmoil, Jordan Palestinians in Jordan still hold on to has so far weathered the crises that the right of return which is enshrined in rocked neighboring countries, but the 194 UN resolution. There are Trump’s much anticipated peace plan concerns that the deal of the century could add fuel to the fire and risk would strip them of their right and Jordan’s fragile security, which is key to dismantle the UNRWA, which provides Israel, the Gulf States, the EU and the services to five million Palestinian US. refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and “Jordan is in a very difficult position, the West Bank and Gaza- and lead to wedged between an Israeli government unrest in the region. that doesn't support a Palestinian state, UNRWA runs the largest school and its own allies -- the US, Saudi systems in the Middle East, with nearly Arabia, UAE -- who each seem to be 700 schools, and has been the main leaning toward a 'solution' that is [in provider of primary education to Jordan’s view] actually no solution at refugee children since 19503. Jordan all” said Curtis Ryan, a professor of has already felt the pinch last year, political science at Appalachian State when the US, the largest contributor to University in North Carolina. “Jordan UNRWA, suspended its contribution. may be forced to choose between its There are 121,386 students studying in own domestic population and its major 171 UNRWA-run schools in Jordan and regional and global allies, or at least the without aid, the students risk being left US and some Gulf States, although EU out of school. states are not likely to sign on for this “Revoking the right of return means 'deal' either. This is why it is an that the UNRWA will be dismantled and impossible situation— Jordan can’t say this will deprive the majority of the 2.2 yes, but it may have a hard time saying million registered Palestinians who live no. And then much depends on just below the poverty line, from the basics how supportive or vengeful its US and to survive. UNRWA employees will also Gulf allies choose to be,” he added1. lose their jobs and this will increase Jordan has been left out of the unemployment and poverty. When all discussions involving the deal, but it hope is gone, the refugees may take to has high stakes in the outcome, more the streets and this could lead to than any other Arab country. political upheaval,” said Nadia Saad el Palestinians make up more than 50 Deen, a researcher and an expert on percent of the country’s population. It is Palestinian issues4. also home to 2.2 million registered Besides, Jordan remains wary that the Palestinian refugees with United peace plan would alter its status in Nations Relief and Works Agency Jerusalem as the custodian of the holy (UNRWA) or 42 per cent of refugees, sites, a Hashemite legacy since 1924, the largest in the diaspora. administered by consecutive kings. The Poverty is also rampant at the Hashemites trace their direct lineage to Palestinian camps, but those who came the Prophet Mohammad, a source of from the Gaza strip, which was ruled by religious legitimacy to enhance their Egypt, who do not have citizenship rule. rights, are three times more likely than other Palestinians in Jordan to be among the destitute poor, living on less 2https://www.unrwa.org/sites/default/files/insight s_into_the_socio- economic_conditions_of_palestinian_refugees_in_ jordan.pdf 3 https://www.unrwa.org/userfiles/2012112174018 1 Email interview with Curtis Ryan, professor of .pdf political science at Appalachian State University in 4 Interview with Nadia Saad Eldeen, an expert on North Carolina, June 2, 2019. Palestinian issues, May 30, 2019. Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e. V. June 2019 3 3 King Abdullah has been anxious about football team, mostly of Palestinian the deal, which he sees as an existential origin, and Al-Faisaly fans, generally of threat to his country. He repeatedly Jordanian origin. affirmed his consistent position known as the three No’s: ‘No alternative “The Palestinians are not prepared to homeland, no settlement and no give up their right of return, and if they meddling with the Hashemite are resettled in Jordan, they would Custodianship over Jerusalem’5. want more rights and wider political In a recent meeting with Trump's son- representation. Solving the conflict by in-law and senior advisor, Jared forcing Jordan to shoulder the burden Kushner, he also stressed his firm will stoke tensions and create an stance in support of the two-state identity crisis between Jordanians of solution6. Palestinian origin and east bankers,” The talk about the plan comes at a said Oraib al Rintawi, director of al combustible time in Jordan, a key US Quds Center for Political Studies.” This ally and the second country after Egypt will undermine the stability of the that has a peace treaty with Israel since country and also transform the conflict 1994. from being Palestinian-Israeli conflict to Jordan is struggling with a debt that a Palestinian- Jordanian conflict7.” makes up more than 96 per cent of its Calls for Jordan to boycott the GDP, double digit poverty and upcoming Manama economic unemployment. Resentment is also workshop, where Kushner is expected running high over the price hikes and to disclose part of the peace plan, have the introduction of new taxes, part of mounted in recent weeks. So far the IMF-led austerity measures, which is government has not decided whether it making it difficult for ordinary would take part in the upcoming Jordanians to put food on the table. workshop, which will be seen as a The country is also grappling with the stamp of approval for the deal. influx of Syrian refugees that has “It is a catch-22, said Jawad Anani, a further strained the country’s scant former deputy prime minister. “We are resources. in a tough position, having to choose Promises of Gulf economic aid without between pragmatism and the economic a political solution to the Israeli - pressures. But this also raises Palestinian conflict would seem like a questions on what will happen to sellout to the Palestinian cause, Jordan ten years from now if the deal something both components of society; passes? What will happen to rights of the Jordanians and Palestinians reject. Jordanians who feel that they are a The majority of Palestinian refugees are marginal population? Will the political Jordanian nationals and enjoy system survive?8”. citizenship rights including access to The dilemma in the country is growing, services and the labor market. But East caught between its own interest to Bank Jordanians are favored in the preserve the Jordanian identity and the public sector, army and other security badly needed gulf aid, which comes jobs. Thanks to the gerrymandering of with strings attached.