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Demographic Trends and Patterns in the Soviet Union Before 1991

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Demographic Trends and Patterns in the Soviet Union Before 1991 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND PATTERNS IN THE SOVIET UNION BEFORE 1991 The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is an interdisciplinary, nongovernmental research institution founded in 1972 by leading scientific organizations in 12 countries. Situated near Vienna, in the center of Europe, IIASA has been for more than two decades producing valuable scientific research on economic, technological, and environmental issues. IIASA was one of the first international institutes to systematically study global issues of environment, technology, and development. IIASA’s Governing Council states that the Institute’s goal is: to conduct international and interdisciplinary scientific studies to provide timely and relevant information and options, addressing critical issues of global environmental economic, and social change, for the benefit of the public, the scientific community, and national and international institutions. Research is organized around three central themes: – Global Environmental Change; – Global Economic and Technological Change; – Systems Methods for the Analysis of Global Issues. The Institute now has national member organizations in the following countries: Austria Italy The Austrian Academy of Sciences The National Research Council (CNR) and the National Commission for Nuclear Bulgaria and Alternative Energy Sources (ENEA) The National Committee for Applied Systems Analysis and Management Japan The Japan Committee for IIASA Canada The Canadian Committee for IIASA Netherlands The Netherlands Organization for Czech and Slovak Republics Scientific Research (NWO) The Committees for IIASA of the Czech and Slovak Republics Poland The Polish Academy of Sciences Finland The Finnish Committee for IIASA Russia The Russian Academy of Sciences Germany The Association for the Advancement Sweden of IIASA The Swedish Council for Planning and Coordination of Research (FRN) Hungary The Hungarian Committee for Applied United States of America Systems Analysis, Hungarian The American Academy of Arts and Academy of Sciences Sciences DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND PATTERNS IN THE SOVIET UNION BEFORE 1991 Edited by Wolfgang Lutz, Sergei Scherbov and Andrei Volkov London and New York International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg, Austria First published 1994 by Routledge 11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2003. Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge 29 West 35th Street, New York, NY 10001 © 1994 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue reference for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data has been applied for ISBN 0-203-04169-0 Master e-book ISBN ISBN 0-203-20365-8 (Adobe eReader Format) ISBN 0-415-10194-8 (Print Edition) Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work. Contents Foreword ix List of Figures xi List of Tables xvii Contributors xxv Introduction xxxi I Fertility Trends and Patterns 1 Nuptiality and Fertility in USSR Republics and Neighboring Populations 3 Ansley J.Coale 2 Survey of Fertility Trends in the Republics of the Soviet Union: 1959–1990 19 Wolfgang Lutz and Sergei Scherbov 3 Three Types of Fertility Behavior in the USSR 41 Alexandr Anichkin and Anatoli Vishnevsky 4 Quantum and Timing of Births in the USSR 57 Leonid E.Darsky 5 Ethnic-Territorial Differences in Marital Fertility: A 1985 Survey 71 Galina Bondarskaya v vi Contents 6 Fertility Transition in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania 89 Kalev Katus 7 Changes in Spatial Variation of Demographic Indicators in Russia 113 Sergei V.Zakharov 8 Contraception and Abortions: Trends and Prospects for the 1990s 131 Alexandr Avdeev II Family Dynamics and Changing Attitudes 9 Family and Household Changes in the USSR: A Demographic Approach 149 Andrei Volkov 10 Marital-Status Composition of the Soviet Population 167 Irina Ilyina 11 Marital and Fertility Experience of Soviet Women 185 Frans Willekens and Sergei Scherbov 12 Teenage Marriages in Latvia 211 Andis Lapinš 13 Large Families in Low-Fertility Regions: A Social Portrait 219 Lidia Prokophieva 14 Public Opinion on Fertility and Population Problems: Results of a 1990 Survey 231 Valentina Bodrova 15 Public Opinion on Family Policies in Lithuania 249 Vlada Stankuniene and Vida Kanopiene 16 The Social Roles and Status of Women in the USSR 263 Natalia Rimashevskaya Contents vii III Components of Mortality Trends 17 Life Expectancy and Causes of Death in the USSR 279 Evgeny M.Andreev 18 A Comparison of Soviet Mortality in the Working Ages: 1959–1988 295 Barbara A.Anderson and Brian D.Silver 19 Soviet Mortality by Cause of Death: An Analysis of Years of Potential Life Lost 339 W.Ward Kingkade 20 Trends in Infant Mortality in the USSR 359 Natalia Ksenofontova 21 Spatial Differences in Life Expectancy in European Russia in the 1980s 379 Vladimir M.Shkolnikov and Sergei A.Vassin 22 Changing Mortality Patterns in Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia 403 Juris Kruminš IV Changes in Population Structure 23 Population Dynamics: Consequences of Regular and Irregular Changes 423 Evgeny M.Andreev, Leonid E.Darsky, and Tatiana L.Kharkova 24 Demographic Regularities and Irregularities: The Population Age Structure 441 Sergei Pirozhkov and Gaiané Safarova 25 Beyond Stable Theory: Intercohort Changes in USSR, USA, and Europe 461 Nathan Keyfitz Index 477 Foreword Each day brings new examples of collaboration between East and West in different spheres of science. The book that you hold in your hands is an example; it is no ordinary book. This book is devoted to demographic processes in the USSR. Demography is a field that involves observation of some general features of human development, and that could explain why, in the former USSR, this field of science was partly closed to researchers: the similarity in demographic processes in different social systems could have disturbed some of the sociological myths of socialist development. Nevertheless, the search for demographic patterns took place on both sides of the Iron Curtain. It was not scientists’ fault that linguistic and political barriers prevented them from knowing the work of their foreign colleagues. The seminar held in 1990 in Tbilisi, Georgia, which provided material that serves as the basis of this book, was virtually the first time that demographic scientists from East and West could work together. The success of the seminar and this book underscore the simple fact that, with joint effort, we can achieve more. For Western readers it may mark their first opportunity for learning about demographic processes in the former USSR, as evaluated by experienced scientists after they finally got access to data. I hope that the authors of this book will broaden and deepen their joint research. I know that after such a successful beginning readers will join me in wishing them no less success in the continuation of their work. Stanislav S.Shatalin Moscow September 1992 ix List of Figures 1.1 Average age of females at first marriage in Scandinavia, Estonia, and Latvia, from 1900 to 1985. 7 1.2 Total fertility rates in Scandinavia, Estonia, and Latvia, from 1900 to 1985. 8 1.3 Index of proportion married (Im) in Scandinavia, Estonia, and Latvia, from 1900 to 1985. 9 1.4 Average age of females at first marriage in European republics and Eastern European countries, 1900–1985. 10 1.5 Total fertility rates in European republics and Eastern European countries, from 1900 to 1985. 11 1.6 Average age of females at first marriage in Central Asian republics, China, and Xinjiang province, China. 12 1.7 Total fertility rates in Central Asian republics, China, and Xinjiang province, China, selected dates. 13 1.8 Average age of females at first marriage in Central Asian republics and other non-European republics, 1895–1980. 14 1.9 Total fertility rates in Central Asian republics and other non-European republics, from 1895 to 1985. 15 2.1 Trends in total fertility rate in selected Soviet republics, 1959–1989. 27 2.2 Three-dimensional view of the evolution of age-specific fertility rates in the USSR, 1959–1988. 29 2.3 Three-dimensional view of the evolution of age-specific fertility rates in Armenia, 1959–1988. 29 2.4 Three-dimensional view of the evolution of age-specific fertility rates in Uzbekistan, 1959–1988. 30 2.5 Age patterns of fertility in selected republics and years. 31 2.6 Cumulative cohort fertility in the USSR. 33 xi xii List of Figures 2.7 Cumulative cohort fertility in Latvia. 34 2.8 Cumulative cohort fertility in Georgia. 34 2.9 Cumulative cohort fertility in Kirghizia. 35 2.10 Parity distributions at age 30 for cohorts born 1946–1950, 1951–1955, and 1956–1960. 38 2.11 Parity distributions for most recent cohorts for which data are available for a given age. 39 3.1 Crude birth rate (conventional and age-standardized) in Estonia, Azerbaijan, and Tajikistan, from 1959 to 1989. 45 3.2 Age-specific fertility rates in Estonia, Azerbaijan, and Tajikistan, in 1959 and 1988. 48 3.3 Total fertility rates and mean ages of mother in Estonia, Azerbaijan, and Tajikistan, from 1958 to 1985. 51 3.4 Distribution of births by order in Estonia, Azerbaijan, and Tajikistan, in 1959 and 1989. 53 3.5 Average number of children borne by different female generations by the ages 35 and 40 and the period TFR in Estonia, Azerbaijan, and Tajikistan. 54 4.1 Interval between second and third births among Russian women. 63 4.2 Intervals between second and third births among married women of three nationalities, second child born between 1970 and 1974.
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