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Full text available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/0200000013 The U.S. Information Economy: Value, Employment, Industry Structure, and Trade Full text available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/0200000013 The U.S. Information Economy: Value, Employment, Industry Structure, and Trade Uday Apte Naval Postgraduate School USA [email protected] Uday Karmarkar University of California USA [email protected] Hiranya Nath Sam Houston State University USA eco [email protected] Boston { Delft Full text available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/0200000013 Foundations and Trends R in Technology, Information and Operations Management Published, sold and distributed by: now Publishers Inc. PO Box 1024 Hanover, MA 02339 USA Tel. +1-781-985-4510 www.nowpublishers.com [email protected] Outside North America: now Publishers Inc. PO Box 179 2600 AD Delft The Netherlands Tel. +31-6-51115274 The preferred citation for this publication is U. Apte, U. Karmarkar and H. Nath, The U.S. Information Economy: Value, Employment, Industry Structure, and Trade, Foundation and Trends R in Technology, Information and Operations Management, vol 6, no 1, pp 1{87, 2012 ISBN: 978-1-60198-610-8 c 2012 U. Apte, U. Karmarkar and H. Nath All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior written permission of the publishers. Photocopying. In the USA: This journal is registered at the Copyright Clearance Cen- ter, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923. Authorization to photocopy items for internal or personal use, or the internal or personal use of specific clients, is granted by now Publishers Inc for users registered with the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC). 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Please apply to now Publishers, PO Box 179, 2600 AD Delft, The Netherlands, www.nowpublishers.com; e-mail: [email protected] Full text available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/0200000013 Foundations and Trends R in Technology, Information and Operations Management Volume 6 Issue 1, 2012 Editorial Board Editor-in-Chief: Charles Corbett UCLA Anderson School of Management Los Angeles, California 90095-1481 USA [email protected] Editors Uday Apte (Naval Postgraduate Ananth Iyer (Purdue University) School) Sunder Kekre (Carnegie Mellon Rajiv Banker (Temple University) University) Gabriel Bitran (MIT) Ton de Kok (Technical University Roger Bohn (UC San Diego) Eindhoven) Gerard Cachon (University of Panos Kouvelis (Washington University) Pennsylvania) Christoph Loch (INSEAD) Morris Cohen (University of Haim Mendelson (Stanford University) Pennsylvania) Mohanbir Sawhney (Northwestern Sriram Dasu (University of Southern University) California) Avi Seidman (University of Rochester) Awi Federgruen (Columbia University) Josep Valor (IESE Business School) Marshall Fisher (University of Jo van Nunen (Erasmus University) Pennsylvania) Garrett van Ryzin (Columbia Art Geoffrion (UCLA) University) Steve Graves (MIT) Luk van Wassenhove (INSEAD) Vijay Gurbaxani (UC Irvine) Andrew Whinston (University of Texas, Wallace J. Hopp (Northwestern Austin) University) Candice Yano (UC Berkeley) Full text available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/0200000013 Editorial Scope Foundations and Trends R in Technology, Information and Operations Management will publish survey and tutorial articles in the following topics: • B2B Commerce • New Product & Service Design • Business Process Engineering and • Queuing Networks Design • Reverse Logistics • Business Process Outsourcing • Service Logistics and Product • Capacity Planning Support • Competitive Operations • Supply Chain Management • Contracting in Supply Chains • Technology Management and Strategy • E-Commerce and E-Business Models • Technology, Information and Operations in: • Electronic markets, auctions and exchanges { Automotive Industries • Enterprise Management Systems { Electronics manufacturing • Facility Location { Financial Services { Health Care • Information Chain Structure and Competition { Industrial Equipment • International Operations { Media and Entertainment • Marketing/Manufacturing { Process Industries Interfaces { Retailing • Multi-location inventory theory { Telecommunications Information for Librarians Foundations and Trends R in Technology, Information and Operations Man- agement, 2012, Volume 6, 4 issues. ISSN paper version 1571-9545. ISSN online version 1571-9553. Also available as a combined paper and online subscription. Full text available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/0200000013 Foundations and Trends R in Technology, Information and Operations Management Vol. 6, No. 1 (2012) 1{87 c 2012 U. Apte, U. Karmarkar and H. Nath DOI: 10.1561/0200000013 The U.S. Information Economy: Value, Employment, Industry Structure, and Trade Uday Apte1, Uday Karmarkar2 and Hiranya Nath3 1 Naval Postgraduate School, Monetery, CA 93943, USA, [email protected] 2 UCLA Anderson School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA, [email protected] 3 Sam Houston State University, Huntsville, TX 77340, USA, eco [email protected] Abstract This study examines the evolution of the United States (U.S.) economy after 1999, extending our previous studies [4, 8] up to 2007. The U.S. economy has moved steadily toward services and information-intensive sectors in terms of Gross National Product (GNP), employment, and wage distribution. Information-intensive services, the nexus of these two major trends, now compose the largest portion of the U.S. economy in terms of GNP value, jobs, and wages. In addition, we study the growth of international trade in services and information sectors, which is likely to become increasingly important in the future. Finally, we examine the factors underlying the shifts observable in the economy and the impact on competition, strategy, and sector structure. An online technical appendix that discusses the definitions and conceptual framework, and describes the data sources and the detailed calculations used to measure the size and structure of the U.S. information economy in 2002 is available at http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1561/0200000013 app. Full text available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/0200000013 Contents 1 Introduction 1 2 The Information Economy: Literature and History of Research 5 3 The U.S. Information Economy 13 3.1 Data and Methodology 13 3.2 Main Findings 18 3.3 Information{Material Decomposition at the Industry Level 22 4 Employment and Wages in the U.S. Economy 27 4.1 Data and Methodology 27 4.2 Main Findings 29 4.3 Sector-wise Employment and Wage Patterns 36 5 International Trade in Information-Intensive Services 41 5.1 Data and Definitions 41 5.2 Main Observations 42 ix Full text available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/0200000013 6 Drivers of Economic Evolution and Sector Growth 59 6.1 Productivity 59 6.2 Industrialization 61 6.3 Technology and Process Change 62 6.4 Design and Innovation 63 6.5 Logistics and Distributed Production 64 6.6 Demographics 65 7 The Consequences of Economic Evolution 67 7.1 Competition 67 7.2 Services Trade and Off-Shoring 71 7.3 Wage Distribution 72 7.4 Convergence and Sector Restructuring 73 7.5 Organizational Restructuring 78 7.6 Continuing Evolution and New Developments 79 8 Summary, Conclusions, and Future Research 81 References 83 Full text available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/0200000013 1 Introduction Most of the large economies in the world are already dominated by services, in that services compose more than 50% of national income. We are now in the midst of another major evolutionary trend: that from a material or physical to an information economy. This change is most visible in developed economies, but is occurring in all economies. Some of the research studies that have examined, established, and mea- sured this trend for the United States (U.S.) are those by Machlup [60], Porat [73], Apte and Nath [8], and Apte et al. [4]. Choi et al. [32], fol- lowing the same methodology as Apte and Nath, demonstrate that a similar evolution has taken place in South Korea, which, while having a relatively larger manufacturing sector than the U.S., was also effec- tively an information economy by 2000 and has continued to trend in that direction until 2005. In this monograph, we explore the confluence of these two trends by examining the double dichotomy of products versus services and infor- mation versus material (noninformation), which divides the economy into four supersectors. Figure 1.1 provides some illustrative examples of industries in the four supersectors. Note that certain physical man- ufacturing and service examples (e.g., computers, telecom) fall in the 1 Full text available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/0200000013 2 Introduction Fig. 1.1 A 2 × 2 decomposition of the U.S. economy with sector examples. information sector following the definition by Porat [73]. It also should be pointed out that many industries do not really lie entirely inside one cell. For example, both Machlup and Porat arrived at nearly identical conclusions about the health care industry: It breaks down just about evenly across the material and information sectors. In previous articles, we have examined the way in which Gross National Product (GNP) in the U.S. divides across these sectors using data on U.S. GNP from 1967, 1992, and 1997 [4]. The current arti- cle revisits the earlier estimates and extends them to 2007.