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Global Flows in a Digital McKinsey Global Institute McKinsey Global Institute Global flows in a digital trade, finance, How age: people, anddata connect worldthe economy April 2014 Global flows in a digital age: How trade, finance, people, and data connect the world economy The McKinsey Global Institute The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), the business and economics research arm of McKinsey & Company, was established in 1990 to develop a deeper understanding of the evolving global economy. Our goal is to provide leaders in the commercial, public, and social sectors with the facts and insights on which to base management and policy decisions. MGI research combines the disciplines of economics and management, employing the analytical tools of economics with the insights of business leaders. Our “micro-to-macro” methodology examines microeconomic industry trends to better understand the broad macroeconomic forces affecting business strategy and public policy. MGI’s in-depth reports have covered more than 20 countries and 30 industries. Current research focuses on six themes: productivity and growth; natural resources; labor markets; the evolution of global financial markets; the economic impact of technology and innovation; and urbanization. Recent reports have assessed job creation, resource productivity, cities of the future, the economic impact of the Internet, and the future of manufacturing. MGI is led by three McKinsey & Company directors: Richard Dobbs, James Manyika, and Jonathan Woetzel. Michael Chui, Susan Lund, and Jaana Remes serve as MGI partners. Project teams are led by the MGI partners and a group of senior fellows, and include consultants from McKinsey & Company’s offices around the world. These teams draw on McKinsey & Company’s global network of partners and industry and management experts. In addition, leading economists, including Nobel laureates, act as research advisers. The partners of McKinsey & Company fund MGI’s research; it is not commissioned by any business, government, or other institution. For further information about MGI and to download reports, please visit www.mckinsey.com/mgi. Copyright © McKinsey & Company 2014 McKinsey Global Institute April 2014 Global flows in a digital age: How trade, finance, people, and data connect the world economy James Manyika Jacques Bughin Susan Lund Olivia Nottebohm David Poulter Sebastian Jauch Sree Ramaswamy Preface The global web of economic interconnections between about services, people, and data and communication countries and companies is growing ever larger and more flows. Our approach has been to combine macro analysis complex. Yet often the public discussion focuses on using available data with microdata where possible, narrow metrics, such as exports, or individual flows such and to bring to bear industry and geographic expertise as cross-border financial flows or immigration. Much less and examples to illustrate the trends we see in the data. research has been done to analyze the comprehensive However, we believe that businesses and policy makers web of cross-border interactions that increasingly should work together to improve the data that are characterize our world. This report contributes to available so that collectively we can more fully understand addressing that gap. their impact. We regard this report as a first foray into an area to which we will return as we know more. We hope In this report, the McKinsey Global Institute and the that others will join us in this effort. McKinsey High Tech Practice examine the evolution of global flows of goods, services, finance, people, and the This research was led for MGI by James Manyika, a data and communication flows that underlie the others. senior partner based in San Francisco, and Susan Lund, We compiled a comprehensive dataset on the inflows and a partner in Washington, DC, and for the McKinsey High outflows in each of the five categories for 195 countries Tech Practice by Jacques Bughin, a senior partner in from 1990–2013, drawing on both public and proprietary Brussels, and Olivia Nottebohm, a partner in Silicon data sources. We focus specifically on how two major Valley. David Poulter, a consultant based in Silicon Valley, forces are shaping global flows: the shift in the weight of and Sebastian Jauch, a consultant based in Munich, the global economy toward emerging economies, and the led the project team. The team comprised Alex Katz, spread of digital technologies and Internet connectivity. Patrick MacKenzie, Soyoko Umeno, Frederic Wagner, and Amber Yang. We thank MGI colleagues Michael Chui, We look at how the network structures of these flows are Sree Ramaswamy, Jan Mischke, and Jonathan Ablett broadening and deepening, and how countries and cities for their advice and input. Research assistance was are positioned in these networks. As part of this project, provided by the MGI economics research team, including we built a new McKinsey Global Institute Connectedness Eduardo Doryan Jara, Alan Fitzgerald, Jan Grabowiecki, Index that gauges how different countries and regions Carlos Molina, and Moira Pierce. in the global economy are connected to global flows. Our index builds on the work of others, including the We thank the academic advisers who helped shape Globalization Index produced by Pankaj Ghemawat and this research and provided challenges and insights and Steven A. Altman, as well as globalization indexes from guidance: Martin N. Baily, Bernard L. Schwartz Chair Ernst & Young, AT Kearney, and the Swiss Economic in Economic Policy Development and senior fellow and Institute. One unique feature of our index is that it adjusts director of the Business and Public Policy Initiative at for country size, avoiding the situation in which large, the Brookings Institution; Matthew Slaughter, associate diversified economies appear less connected to global dean of the MBA program and the Signal Companies activity because flows are a relatively small part of the Professor of Management at Tuck School of Business at ove r a l l G D P. Dartmouth University; Michael Spence, Nobel laureate and William R. Berkley Professor in Economics and Business Any attempt to build a comprehensive view of all global at NYU Stern School of Business; Laura Tyson, S. K. flows of economic relevance is an ambitious project. We and Angela Chan professor of Global Management at acknowledge that our analysis is far from complete. Data Haas School of Management, University of California at limitations—both over time and also across all aspects Berkeley; and Hal R. Varian, chief economist at Google of the flows—have constrained our ability to draw a fully and emeritus professor in the School of Information, Haas comprehensive picture. We know a great deal in a data- School of Business and the Department of Economics driven sense about trade and financial flows, but less at the University of California at Berkeley. In addition to McKinsey Global Institute Global flows in a digital age: How trade, finance, people, and data connect the world economy these close academic advisers, we have benefited from We would also like to thank Alan Wheatley, former global insights and feedback provided by J. Bradford Jensen, economics editor of Reuters, for his input on early professor of International Business and Economics at the report drafts. McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University, and AnnaLee Saxenian, dean and professor in the School MGI’s operations team provided crucial support for this of Information and professor in the Department of City research. This includes senior editors Janet Bush and and Regional Planning at the University of California Lisa Renaud; Rebeca Robboy and Gabriela Ramirez at Berkeley. in external communications; Julie Philpot, editorial production manager; data visualization and design We are grateful for the input and industry expertise experts Marisa Carder, James Newman, and from many McKinsey colleagues in various geographies Mary Reddy; Tim Beacom, knowledge operations and sectors around the world, including Henrik Arwidi, specialist; and Deadra Henderson, manager of personnel Vicente Assis, Chinta Bhagat, Jaap Bouwer, Susan Colby, and administration. Toos Daruvala, Wouter De Ploey, Alex Dichter, Dan Ewing, David Fine, Katy George, Timo Glave, Andrew Grant, This report contributes to MGI’s mission to help business Brian Gregg, Wieland Gurlit, Maryanne Hancock, and policy leaders understand the forces transforming the Staffan Hertzell, Endre Holen, Eric Kutcher, Eric Labaye, global economy, identify strategic locations, and prepare Alan Lau, Dan Leberman, Nicolas Leung, Diaan-Yi Lin, for the next wave of growth. As with all MGI research, this Vik Malhotra, Jürgen Müller, Thomas Netzer, Gordon Orr, work is independent and has not been commissioned or Kausik Rajgopal, Louis Rassey, Stefan Rehbach, sponsored in any way by any business, government, or Christian Riis-Hansen, Paul Roche, Nick Santhanam, other institution, although it has benefited from the input Jimmy Sarakatsannis, Hugo Sarrazin, Jürgen Schröder, and collaborations that we have mentioned. We welcome Colin Shaw, Marc Singer, Ozgur Tanrikulu, Oliver Tonby, your emailed comments on the research at Fransje van der Marel, Arend Van Wamelen, and [email protected]. Dilip Wagle. This independent MGI initiative drew from MGI research, the experience of our McKinsey colleagues more broadly, James Manyika and McKinsey’s Technology, Media and Telecom Practice Director, McKinsey Global Institute and its collaboration with Google, which included San Francisco data
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