Decadal dynamics of Arctic continental water cycle in the framework of MONARCH-A

A.-L. Dhomps*,1,2, E.A. Zakharova1,2,3, A.V. Kouraev1,3, S. Biancamaria1,2, N.M. Mognard1,4 (1) Université de Toulouse; UPS (OMP-PCA); LEGOS; Toulouse, France, (2) CNRS, LEGOS, Toulouse, France, (3) State Oceanography Institute, St. Petersburg Branch, St. Petersburg, Russia, (4) CNES; LEGOS, Toulouse, France, * Contact: [email protected]

INTRODUCTION Global (North of 50°N latitude) summer monthly fields of surface water extent from SSMI Timing of freeze/thaw periods over rivers and lakes from combination of SSMI and altimeter

Alaska Alaska S=0.54

High latitude regions are predicted to suffer much greater warming than lower latitudes as a result of Algorithm from Fily et al. [2003] R²=0.72 River ice: in situ and satellite data Ice phenology for lakes and internal seas

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climate change. This will cause drastic changes in the carbon and water balance of the region, with + Brightness Temperature at 37 GHz for horizontal ICE EVENTS DURATION, DAYS r

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season, land cover, greenhouse gas fluxes and albedo. Ob' + Emissivity (Prigent et al. [1998] ) Gorki n

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variables and their mutual forcing and feedback mechanisms associated with changes in terrestrial carbon n r

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and water fluxes, sea level and ocean circulation and the marine carbon cycle in the high latitude and g

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1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 MONARCH-A project. The Project Coordinator is Research Director Prof. Dr. J.A. Johannessen. Siberia North • Open water Coast s=-0,058 R²=0,542 WP 1: Changes in terrestrial carbon and water fluxes (S. Quegan, USFD) Siberia West Coast WP 2: Changes in sea level and ocean circulation (D. Stammer, UHAM) s=0.000 R²=-0.008 Seasonal and inter-annual variability of wet zones extent in Western Siberia WP 3: Changes in marine carbon cycle (T. Johannessen, UiB) Major Russian basins (HydroSHEDS) Kara Sea Coast from radar altimetry and their implication for hydrological modeling WP 4: Synthesis and Interaction with the Scientific Community.(J.A. Johannessen, NERSC) P=-0.005 R²=-0.061 WP 5: Management (J.A. Johannessen, NERSC) Wet zones: 21 watershed of Ob’ river Barents Sea Coast s=-0.013 No River name Watershed area, No River name Watershed 2 WP 1.1 Decadal change in snow properties. R²=0.124 km area, km2 Yenisey ShuchyaShuchya 1 Taz 155666 12 Tym 30902 Samburg WP 1.2 The decadal dynamics of high latitude water bodies Samburg 2 Vakh 76504 13 Ket 94828 Sidorovsk Ob PoluyPoluy PurPur FWS July trend over 1989-2009 (% of water) 3 Pur 103329 14 Vasyugan 63092 Poluy SevernayaSevernaya SosvaSosva PurPur Poluy Urengoy Ob' WP 1.3 Decadal changes in permafrost location and depth s=0.011 NadymNadym TazTaz Nadym LyaminLyamin PimPim 4 TromYugan 51820 15 Bolshoy Yugan 33366 Nadym Pur R²=0.142 KazymKazym NazymNazym TromYuganTromYugan WP 1.4 Land cover and fire and their representation in models 5 Nadym 54152 16 Severnaya Sosva 91149 Poluy Yenisey 6 Poluy 19557 17 Konda 70592 VakhVakh Taz TymTym s=-0.016 Nadym Ob' 7 Shuchya 11831 18 Tavda 86629 KondaKonda WP 1.5 Reanalysis of the water and carbon balances of the major high-latitude catchments and their R²=0.587 TavdaTavda 8 Kazym 34634 19 Tura 78385 Irtysh KetKet BolshoyBolshoy YuganYugan Volga TuraTura link to climate 9 Nazym 11169 20 Om 62734 VasyuganVasyugan VasyuganVasyugan s=-0.012 10 Lyamin 15528 21 Inner watershed 115524 Ob' R²=0.331 11 Pim 12055 OmOm Lena

=> 9 deliverables in WP 1.1 and WP 1.2 from LEGOS/CNRS s=0.002 InnerInnerInner watershedwatershedwatershed FWS July significant trend over 1989-2009 R²=0.105 FWS July trend per basin Wet zones: inter-annual variations

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Water level variations over the large Arctic rivers and lakes from satellite altimeters r Snow extent, snow depth, dates of start and end of the snow season, and snow water equivalent p Taz (black

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l Significant variability from year to year.

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Over Rivers: exemple for Ob Over Lakes c a 20 Wet zones extent (%) similar in spring Time series by pentads and months from 1989 to 2009 R Global (over 50°N) on EASE-grid ML (25km²) Input to the preparation of 0 and autumn, AltiKa satellite altimetry b) though in volume it is very different

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r d u Nadym (red) Ghz (SSMI-NSIDC) P 0 + Ground Temperature averaged pentads over 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 the period 1983-1994 (ISBA) + Surface Air Temperature pentads (NCEP) Water level (m, over ellipsoid); Averaged data for 2002-2009 OUTLOOKS maximal and minimal values, and seasonal amplitude. Distance in km - starting from the northernmost virtual station 20 • Snow Water Equivalent are compared to models. Date of star of the snow season • Further correlation with river runoff will be made. Average (1987-2008) dates (in pentads since pentad 15 • Fields of surface water extent will be compared to other datasets and 20 years variability will be 42, July 29) of snow appearance. studied more deeply. 10 • SWE will be used to force the hydrological model for 3 watersheds of North-Western Siberia.

5 distance, km Pentad 1st to 5th 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 January 2008 REFERENCES Snow water equivalent -5 + Snow Depth Hmin,m over ellipsoid Bartsch A., D. Sabel, S. Schlaer, 2011, “ SARWater Bodies V1 product guide ”, ESA DUE Permafrost. -10 Hmax Biancamaria, S., N. Mognard, A. Boone, M. Grippa, A. Josberger, 2008, "A satellite snow multi-year average derived from SSM/I for the high latitude + Snow density from ISBA averaged amplitude regions ", Remote Sensing of Environment, vol. 112, 2447-2568 pentads over the 1987-2008 period Fily M., A. Royer, K. Gopta and C. Prigent, 2003, “ A simple retrieval method for land surface temperature and fraction of water surface determination -15 from satellite microwave brightness temperatures in sub-arctic areas ”, Remote Sensing of Environment, vol. 85, 328- 338. Pentad 20th to 24th Grippa M., N. M. Mognard, T. Le Toan and S. Biancamaria, 2007, “ Observations of changes in surface water over the western Siberia lowland ”, Water level variability (m, above geoid) Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 34, L15403, doi:10.1029/2007GL030165. February 2008 Mialon, A., A. Royer, M. Fily, 2005, “ Wetland seasonal dynamics and interannual variability over northern high latitudes, derived from microwave of the Eurasian lakes and reservoirs. satellite data ”, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 110, D17102, doi:10.1029/2004JD005697. Depth (mm) Density (kg/m3) Water equivalent(mm) Red line - mean values, light blue bars -standard deviation. Zakharova E.A., A.V. Kouraev, S. Biancamaria, M.V. Kolmakova, N.M. Mognard, V.A. Zemtsov, S.N. Kirpotin, B. Decharme. Snow cover and spring flood flow in the northern part of Western Siberia (the Poluy, Nadym, Pur and Taz rivers). Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2011, Volume 2, p. 1498-1511, DOI: All Y axis on this figure have the same vertical scale 10.1175/JHM-D-11-017.1 European Geoscience Union General Assembly 2012 April, 22th- 27th, 2012 Vienna, Austria