DOCSLIB.ORG

'1E and on the Giannini Foundation J'

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
'1E and on the Giannini Foundation J' l i37 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LIBRARY UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA DAVIS, CALIF. 95616 University of California College of Agriculture Agricultural Experiment Station Berkeley, California ii. I ! J INFLATION AND AGRICULTURE by J. M.lTinley Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, ~tk Associate Agricultural Economist in the Experiment Station '1e and on the Giannini Foundation j'. ' - A Paper Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Western Farm Economics Association,, Reno" Nevada June 23, 24, and 25, 1937 re INFLATION AND AGRICULTURE J. M. Tinley College of Agriculture University of California What is inflation? The Encyclopaedia of tho Social Sc.iences states that the meaning an economist associates with the terms "inflation" or its opposite, "deflation," is apt to vary in accordance with his views regarding the money-credit-price mechanism. It then proceeds to enumerate a dozen or more definitions or variations of definitions by economists like Keynes, Cassels, and Laughlin. Still other definitions are given by Kemmerer, Hardy, and Mohr. To be in style I shall be presumptious enough to present my own dofinition or rather understanding of the term. The layman usually applies the terms inflation and deflation to increases or decreases in the general level of prices, regardless of the causes of such changes. Economists, however, usually apply the terms mainly to rapid price changes originating on the money•credit side of tho equation of exchange -­ changes in the volume of circulating media (including velocity) in relation to the volume of trade. Within recent years some economists (especially some New Deal economists) have given the terms a somewhat new meaning. They visualize some sort of a norm or stubiltzod price level. Whenever prices rise above the norm, wo have inflation; when they decline below tho norm, we have deflation. Movements back from below towards normal are called reflation. This form of reasoning implies that there is something economically sound and desirable in .e a stabilized commodity price level. It is always as well to keep theoretical definitions as closely in line with general usage as possible. I will, therefore, apply the term inflation to all tendencies for prices to rise, but at the same time point out that there are several categories or variations of inflation which are associated with the immediate causes of the increase in prices. I will mention and describo brief­ ly what I believe to bo the five most important vo.riations. (1) Inflation Arising from Business Recovery, During economic depressions prices of large numbers of commodities (especially raw materials) 3.nd wages of most laborers decline to extremely low levels -- below any kind of a long-time normal. Prices of other commodities and wages of certain types of labor decline to only a minor extent. When recovery sets in, the prices of commodities which experienced the decline and wages begin to rise -- as~ result the index of prices generally will rise. The influence is largely, if not entiroly, on the side of demand and supply of commodities. What expansion of credit does tako place is in responso to in­ creased demands of trade, but does not proc<:}de it. This may bo called a. form of reflation. (2) Inflation Arising from Increased Costs and Rostriction. Sinco 1933 prices of agricultural products havo increased consider­ ably. Although devaluati,on of tho dollo.r, relief expenditures, and tho usual - process of rooovory wore partly responsible, tho moro important influonco wo.s 2. tho reduction of supply of farm products under tho policies of tho A.A.A. and after tho droughts of 1934 and 1936.· From 1935 onwards., lo.bar hc,s boon striving., - with considernblo success, to obtain higher daily wugos o.nd shortor working hours -- another form of restriction. Whore labor ho.::: been successful, in­ dustries ho.vo used higher wdgos as an excuse to rniso prices. Tho result ho.s been o. very mo.rkod increase in wholesale and retail prices during tho past two years -- an increase still in process. The total volume of circulating media ho.s increased, but a.gain nftor and not boforo tho demunds of tro.do for more money ri.nd credit. While many economists would not apply the term inflation to this phenom­ enon; the rise in prices still gaining momentum is fraught with serious conse­ quences if not checked. The inflexibility of prices of most industrial products and most forms of public--utili ty rates preceding and during the depression v.ra.s a clear evidence of a considerable degree of monopoly control. In its efforts to stimulate recovery the Administration evidently concluded that to attempt to break down the rigidity of industrial prices would be impossible or too protracted a process. Instead efforts were made to extend to agriculture (under the A.A.A.) and to labor (under the N.R.A. and Wagner Lubor Act) the privilege of also exacting a me~suro of monopoly benefit. Unfortunately the whole process works in a vicious circle. Universal monopoly is an absurdity. Furthermore., prices tend to be forced inn direction opposite to the one they should move in under conditions of advancing technology. ► In a competitive economy improvements in the arts in agriculture as well as in industry should result in gradually declining costs and hence grudually declining prices. An upward movement in prices, in the face of technological advances, .e tends to concentrate tho benefits of such improvements in relatively fow hands. We have injected into our economy a greater degree of rigidity and inflexibility, which ~~11 undoubtedly give rise to grovving ni.aladjustmonts. From this stand~ point alone the future is ominous. The rapid increase in farm prices since 1933 Wl:\S largely due to the fact that agriculture got a head start on other branches of industry. Wagos of labor (agricultural as well as industrial) and prices of industrial com.~odities ure now gaining an upward momentun1. On the other hand, supplies of several im­ portant farm products ( e.g. wheo.t, corn, and hor~s) h:we been reduced to such low levels that an increase in the output of such products is in the no.tional interest. This will tend to check a further rise in farm prices. It is thus not unlikely thnt the next yec.r or two may find reo.l buying power of form products little greater tho.n in 1932 o.nd 1933. (3) Po.per Money Inflation. A third form of inflation tnk0s plo.ce when the printing press is set to work turning out paper money, the value of which is cut entirely froo of the gold bo.se • Most of us are familio.r with the infln tion in Gorrmmy after tho World War. This type of inflnt:Lon need not be given serious consideration here. There is o.lwo.ys. of course, the possibility that we mo.y indulge in this form of economic "ha.ra-kiri, 11 but it is improbo.ble., at le[\st in th0 neo.r future. If it comes about, it will probo.bly indico.to tho complete bronkdown of our economic - systom and proso.ge sor.10 form of oconoraic c.nd socio.l revolution. (4) Secular Trends of Prices. Another type of inflntion is that ref'er1·od to in economic writings us o.n upwo.rd socula.r trend of pricos -• a gruduo.l upward movomont covoring o. - long period of' time. Since 1730 thoro have boon throo auch movomonts:. o.nd we may be in a fourth now. These movements all culminated in a rapid war-time inflation, rapid post-war deflation, and then a gradual downward secular move­ ment covering twenty years or more followed again by a gradual upward mo~ement, Economists like Warren, Fisher, Cassel, and others claim that these secular movements arise out of the relation between the growth of world stocks of monetary gold and the volume of world tro.de. Other economists, hovv-over, while o.groeing to the importance of tho gold-tro.do ratios, ospecially prior to 1900·, maintain that this explanation alone is insufficient. Thoy maintain thnt normal business psychology is inflationary, thut unless intorruptod, prices over a long poriod of timo will tend upwo.rds. During tho past 150 yours tho threo upward movements were ondod by wo.rs. During vro.rs tho normo.l debtor­ croditor rolo.tions within and botwoen oountrios a.re rodica.lly upsot and pro• duction forced into non•peaoetime cho.nnels. They claim tho.t the post-wo.r downwo.rd trends aro duo to tho f'nct that norrr.o.l economic foroos aro opera.ting to iron out the wo.r mo.lo.djustmonts. As soon ns this process is complotod, prices again start upwn.rd in response to our optimistic inflationary psychology. Such seoulo.r inf'lutiormry or doflo.tiono.ry trends nro important in that they a.ro so gro.dua.l thut people genoro.lly do not know what is happening and because it is difficult to tako uppropria.to corroctivo moasuros. Tho post-war difficulties of' farmers (ospeoia.lly those connectod with fa.rm indobtodnoss) could in la.rge moo.sure bo truced to tho incronso in lund w.luos during tho . e upwo.rd secular movement starting in 1897 • (5) Credit Inflation on a Gold Base. The fifth category of inflation is that which takes place where deposit currency is expanded# although the country remains on the gold standard and the expansion is within the usual legal gold reserves, This type of' in­ flation is often advanced by economists such as Hawtrey as an explanation of the business cycles. Since the World War the possibility of this typo of inflation has incroasod and the probable results have become more serious.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • The Austrian Theory of Money by Murray N
    The Austrian Theory of Money By Murray N. Rothbard [Reprinted from The Foundations of Modern Austrian Economics, Edwin Dolan, ed. (Kansas City: Sheed Andrews and McMeel, 1976), pp. 160-84.; The Logic of Action One: Method, Money, and the Austrian School (Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 1997), pp. 297-320. The pagination on this edition corresponds to the Logic edition.] The Austrian theory of money virtually begins and ends with Ludwig von Mises's monumental Theory of Money and Credit, published in 1912.1 Mises's fundamental accomplishment was to take the theory of marginal utility, built up by Austrian economists and other marginalists as the explanation for consumer demand and market price, and apply it to the demand for and the value, or the price, of money. No longer did the theory of money need to be separated from the general economic theory of individual action and utility, of supply, demand, and price; no longer did monetary theory have to suffer isolation in a context of "velocities of circulation," "price levels," and "equations of exchange." In applying the analysis of supply and demand to money, Mises used the Wicksteedian concept: supply is the total stock of a commodity at any given time; and demand is the total market demand to gain and hold cash balances, built up out of the marginal-utility rankings of units of money on the value scales of individuals on the market. The Wicksteedian concept is particularly appropriate to money for several reasons: first, because the supply of money is either extremely durable in relation to current production, as under the gold standard, or is determined exogenously to the market by government authority; and, second and most important, because money, uniquely among commodities desired and demanded on the market, is acquired not to be consumed, but to be held for later exchange.
    [Show full text]
  • Measures of Underlying Inflation and Their Role in the Conduct of Monetary Policy
    PROCEEDINGS June 1999 MEASURES OF UNDERLYING INFLATION AND THEIR ROLE IN THE CONDUCT OF MONETARY POLICY Proceedings of the workshop of central bank model builders held at the BIS on 18-19 February 1999 BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS Monetary and Economic Department Basel, Switzerland Note: The papers included in this volume are to be considered as working papers. They should be cited as working papers and considered preliminary drafts of any subsequent publication. They are reproduced here to make them easily available to anyone having an interest in the subject of the workshop because participation in the workshop is restricted to central banks. Although all papers have been screened for relevance to the subject matter of the workshop, they have not been subject to a rigorous refereeing process nor edited for form or content by the Bank for International Settlements. Copies of publications are available from: Bank for International Settlements Information, Press & Library Services CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland Fax: +41 61 / 280 91 00 and +41 61 / 280 81 00 This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 1999. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISBN 92-9131-072-7 PROCEEDINGS June 1999 MEASURES OF UNDERLYING INFLATION AND THEIR ROLE IN THE CONDUCT OF MONETARY POLICY Proceedings of the workshop of central bank model builders held at the BIS on 18-19 February 1999 BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS Monetary and Economic Department
    [Show full text]
  • Core Inflation: a Review of Some Conceptual Issues
    II Core Inflation: A Review of Some Conceptual Issues Mark A. Wynne This paper reviews various approaches to the measurement of core inflation that have been pro- posed over the years using the stochastic approach to index numbers as a unifying framework. It begins with a review of how the concept of core inflation is used by the world’s major central banks, including some of the inflation-targeting central banks. The author provides a comprehensive review of many of the measures of core inflation that have been developed over the years and highlights some of the conceptual and practical problems associated with them. (JEL E31, C43) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2008, 90(3, Part 2), pp. 205-28. he notion of core inflation has played In this paper I critically review various an important role in the deliberations approaches to measuring core inflation by linking of monetary policymakers for the past these approaches in a single theoretical frame- 25 years. However, despite the central work, the so-called stochastic approach to index Trole of this concept, there is still no consensus numbers. I evaluate the competing merits of the on how best to go about measuring core inflation. different approaches and argue that a common The most elementary approach, and the one that shortcoming is the absence of a well-formulated is probably the most widely used, consists of theory of what these measures of inflation are simply excluding certain categories of prices from supposed to be capturing. The notion that they the overall inflation rate.
    [Show full text]
  • Core Inflation: a Review of Some Conceptual Issues*
    CORE INFLATION: A REVIEW OF SOME CONCEPTUAL ISSUES* Mark A. Wynne DG Research European Central Bank Kaiserstraße 29 60311 Frankfurt am Main April 1999 Core Inflation: A Review of Some Conceptual Issues Abstract: This paper reviews various approaches to the measurement of core inflation that have been proposed in recent years. The objective is to determine whether the ECB should pay special attention to one or other of these measures in assessing inflation developments in the euro area. I put particular emphasis on the conceptual and practical problems that arise in the measurement of core inflation, and propose some criteria that could be used by the ECB to choose a core inflation measure. * I thank Vítor Gaspar, David Lebow, Fabio Scacciavillani and seminar participants at the ECB for comments. This paper is part of a larger project on the measurement of core inflation in the euro area. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Central Bank or the European System of Central Banks. 1 1. INTRODUCTION The notion of core inflation has played an important role in the deliberations of monetary policymakers for the past twenty-five years. However, despite the central role of this concept, there is still no consensus on how best to go about measuring core inflation. The most elementary approach, and the one that is probably the most widely used, consists of simply excluding certain categories of prices from the overall inflation rate. This is the so-called “Ex. food and energy” approach to core inflation measurement, and it reflects the origin of the concept of core inflation in the turbulent decade of the 1970’s.
    [Show full text]
  • Effects of Inflation Targeting Policy on Inflation Rates and Gross Domestic Product in Ghana
    European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol.6, No.21, 2014 Effects of Inflation Targeting Policy on Inflation Rates and Gross Domestic Product in Ghana Albert Puni Department of Administration, University of Professional Studies, Accra, P.O. Box LG 149, Legon Bright Addiyiah Osei Research Centre, University of Professional Studies, Accra, P.O.Box LG 149, Legon Email:[email protected] Charles Barnor Department of Banking and Finance, University of Professional Studies, Accra, P.O. Box LG 149, Legon Abstract Inflation targeting has been widely adopted in both developed and developing economies. The Bank of Ghana (BOG) formally adopted an inflation targeting regime as a major monetary policy framework in May 2007, becoming the second African country to do so after South Africa. This research paper sought to investigate the effect of inflation targeting policy on inflation rates and gross domestic product. The research adopted the quantitative method by comparing the effect of inflation targeting policy on inflation rates and gross domestic product in the pre inflation targeting period (2000-2006) and the post inflation targeting period (2007-2013). The resultsrevealed that there was a significant difference between the mean inflation rates for the two periods. The inflation rate for the post inflation targeting period is significantly less than the pre-inflation targeting period. It was also revealed that inflation targeting did not have a statistically significant effect on economic growth in Ghana. The study concluded that policy makers are encouraged to explore other policy alternative including inflation targeting regime to maximize production in the economy.
    [Show full text]
  • Austrian Economics Golden Opportunities Fund
    Austrian Economics Golden Opportunities Fund Prepared for Inflation And Deflation Ronald-Peter Stöferle & Mark J. Valek Executive Summary I Quo Vadis… The Fund and its Objectives ► Real (inflation-adjusted) growth in uncertain times ► Active protection against Inflation/Deflation ► Absolute Return, Global Macro approach ► Target return 8% p.a. ► Modest Drawdown-Risk (Ø Volatility between 10 and 12%) ► Diversification to traditional bond and equity portfolios …Inflation or Deflation? Our Investment Approach ► Identifying the respective inflation momentum utilizing the „Incrementum-Inflation-Signal“. ► Strategies are implemented based on our know-how in the Inflation/Deflation portfolio via precious metals, equities and commodities. ► Budget for tactical opportunities for other themes using Austrian School perspective. Sources: Societe Generale, Incrementum AG 2 Executive Summary II Austrian Economics for Investors Our Investment Philosophy ► Insights of the Austrian School of Economics are the intellectual foundation of our macro-analyses. ► In contrast to traditional tenets the Austrian School recognizes the “fiat money” and fractional reserve banking system as the major cause of the ongoing crisis. Conservative Risk Profile Characteristics of the Fund ► No benchmark, Absolute Return approach ► Active asset allocation for Inflation or Deflation by means of diversified basket of securities ► Significantly lower volatility (between 10-12%) compared to mining stocks (about 50%) and silver (about 35%) ► UCITS IV Funds Sources: Societe Generale,
    [Show full text]
  • Inflation As a Distribution Problem,As Well As a Monetary Phenomenon
    Inflation as a Distribution Problem, as well as a Monetary Phenomena ( Macro Economic Analysis of Inflation and Stagflation in Less Developed Economies ) H. Nazeman Faculty of Economics, A.T.U. , Tehran This paper intends to address the problem of inflation in less developed, and transitional economies, and where the institutions of market is not fully developed and well functioning. Following the introductory analysis of the issue from Post Keynesian view and the Monetarist orthodoxy, it will be demonstrated that current Neo classical analysis based on rigid Monetarist views fails to address the problem properly in the socio- economic environment of the less developed economies, and as a result its policy prescriptions do not succeed. Inflation as a major macro-economic problem in developed economies can be viewed either as an institutional problem deeply rooted in the structural behaviour of society, or as a short run monetary phenomenon simply because of a mismanagement of public finance and monetary system. While Post Keynesian views are mostly focused on the structure of the economy and the nature of distribution, the socio-economic structure of the economy and the role of relevant social institutions. Although the Keynesian / Monetarist argument on effectiveness of stabilization policy may simply be treated as an interesting academic debate in western developed countries, the issue of persisting inflation and subsequent government policy makers, and the professional economists. Consequently a realistic analysis of the problem should consider both structural aspect of the phenomenon in terms of the capacity of social institutions and distribution pattern prevailing in the economy, as well as the short run behaviour of economic agents.
    [Show full text]
  • Some Issues in Monetary Economics January 1970
    Some Issues in Monetary Economies* By DAVID I. FAND Public policies are continuously sought which will assist in guiding the economy between the perils of inflation and the dangers of unemployment and under-production. During the last five years the perils of inflation have become increasingly apparent, and during the past year stabilization actions have been taken to reduce the rate of advance of the price level. At the present time there is growing concern that these actions may lead the economy into a recession, What are the vehicles and avenues of stabilization policy which can best restore the econ- oniy to a satisfactory course, that is, a high and rising level of output and employment with a reasonably stable price level? Unfortunately, students of this problem are not in ~ubstan- tial agreement on an answer. Economists have tended to fall into two conflicting schools of thought regarding economic stabilization — the income-expenditure approach and the modern quantity theory of money approach. Until recently, the dominant school has been the modern version of the income-expendi- ture theory which has evolved from the work of John Maynard Keynes in the 1930’s. Policy- makers in the 1950’s and 1960’s generally adopted the theoretical framework of this school for the formulation of economic stabilization actions. Primary emphasis was given to fiscal actions — Federal government spending and taxing programs — in guiding the economy be- tween inflation and unemployment. During the last two decades, proponents of the modern quantity theory of money have increasingly challenged the basic propositions of the income- expenditure school.
    [Show full text]
  • INFLATION and ITS CONTROL Everett E
    INFLATION AND ITS CONTROL Everett E. Peterson, Extension Economist, University of Nebraska, and Richard G. Ford, Extension Economist, Federal Extension Service' The authors of the many speeches and writings on inflation can be divided roughly into two opinion groups. One group argues that a little inflation is good because it stimulates economic growth and bene- fits most people and that steps can be taken to care for those few who are injured. The second group holds that any inflation is bad, that creeping inflation will get out of hand, and that stable prices are con- sistent with full empoyment and economic growth. The following quotations are typical of current writings on inflation: Let us not minimize the explosive potentials of this economic outlaw. In its exaggerated form-when inflation shifts from a creep to a gallop- it has bred dictators, toppled governments, ruined nations. And, when it gets so out of hand, it can kill the goose that lays the golden eggs of eco- nomic growth by discouraging the savings with which we buy the machines to increase our productivity. Even in its creepiest form, inflation robs the needy by decreasing the purchasing power of money. The things that a pension or small salary will buy shrink with each creep forward of an inflationary movement. Thus, schoolteachers, pensioners, and those elder citizens who live upon income from a fixed amount of capital, find themselves poorer and poorer. The savings upon which so many of our people rely for their support in old age, or to gain earlier independence, are constantly diminished in value.
    [Show full text]
  • Austrian Foundations for the Theory and Practice of Finance
    JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE EDUCATION • Volume 10 • Number 2 • Fall 2011 70 Austrian Foundations for the Theory and Practice of Finance Gregory M. Dempster1 Abstract An Austrian perspective on financial theory and practice could address some fundamental problems of epistemology and method in mainstream approaches and help inform a reconstruction of the field of finance education. This paper outlines the development of a distinctive Austrian approach to finance that rests on the foundations of fundamental uncertainty, reasonable views of individual and collective expectations, social capital and embeddedness, methodological subjectivism, and organic, evolutionary processes. Introduction The Austrian School of Economics has a long and distinguished history of dealing with problems of epistemology and method in economics that the mainstream of the profession has predominately ignored. The discipline of finance (a specialized sub-field of economics that deals with the principles of the acquisition, management, and use of money capital, by individuals and firms, as a source of liquidity and investment funding), though typically better grounded in real-world practice than its parent discipline, nonetheless suffers from epistemological problems, as well as methodological inconsistencies, that an Austrian perspective could potentially address. The goals of this paper are threefold. First, it represents an attempt to draw out the philosophical implications of the Austrian approach for the study of financial markets by focusing attention on the advances in theory and method attributed to certain “leading lights” of the School. Second, it will provide a survey of recent contributions to financial theory and practice that have been made by Austrian economists on the basis of the underpinnings that are laid down in the first section.
    [Show full text]
  • Price Inflation and Stock Returns
    View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by University of St. Thomas, Minnesota Price Inflation and Stock Returns Jeffrey Oxman Working Paper # 2011-OCBFINCWP-02 Copyright © 2011 by Jeffrey Oxman. All rights reserved. Do not quote or cite without permission from the author. Working papers are in draft form. This working paper is distributed for purposes of comment and discussion only. Its contents should be considered to be preliminary and may not be reproduced without permission of the copyright holder. Price Inflation and Stock Returns J. Oxman February 8th, 2011 Abstract This letter is intended to demonstrate that price inflation and stock returns display differing relationships depending on the measure of inflation used. Using data from 1966 – 2009, it appears that no correlation exists between any measure of price inflation and stock returns or dividend yield in the period 1983 – 2009. We do find a negative correlation between monetary inflation and dividend yield for the full sample. We also question the regularity that price inflation and stock returns are negatively related in post-World War II. This appears to depend on the specification of the model used. Introduction Price inflation – that is an increase in the general level of prices – is a well known concept. Much like the intrinsic value of a firm’s shares it is not directly observable. It is typically measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) but that is not the only measure of inflation available. The purpose of this letter is to illustrate the differences between three potential measures of inflation – the CPI, the implicit Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) deflator, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) – and relate the importance of the difference in terms of the inflation and equity premium puzzle.
    [Show full text]
  • Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and the Phillips Curve
    Working Paper Series Congressional Budget Office Washington, D.C. Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and the Phillips Curve Yiqun Gloria Chen Congressional Budget Office [email protected] Working Paper 2019-07 August 2019 To enhance the transparency of the work of the Congressional Budget Office and to encourage external review of that work, CBO’s working paper series includes papers that provide technical descriptions of official CBO analyses as well as papers that represent independent research by CBO analysts. Papers in this series are available at http://go.usa.gov/ULE. This paper has not been subject to CBO’s regular review and editing process. The views expressed here should not be interpreted as CBO’s. The author thanks the following CBO staff for their comments and suggestions: Robert Arnold, Wendy Edelberg, Kim Kowalewski (formerly of CBO), and Jeffrey Werling. The author also thanks Alan Detmeister of UBS, Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs, David Lebow of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and James Stock of Harvard University for their useful feedback. www.cbo.gov/publication/55501 Abstract This paper studies the current state of inflation dynamics through the lens of the Phillips curve and assesses the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations. I first estimate a Phillips curve model with both past inflation and a constant anchor as explanatory variables over the 1999– 2018 period for a variety of measures of consumer prices. My results show that the Phillips curve has shifted away from an accelerationist form toward a level form, but that shift is incomplete, particularly for core inflation.
    [Show full text]