Searching for a Theory That Fits the Data: a Personal Research Odyssey
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When John Maynard Keynes Likened Jan Tinbergen's Early Work in Econometrics to Black Magic and Alchemy, He Was Expressing a Widely Held View of a New Discipline
Cambridge University Press 0521553598 - Probability, Econometrics and Truth: The Methodology of Econometrics Hugo A. Keuzenkamp Frontmatter More information When John Maynard Keynes likened Jan Tinbergen's early work in econometrics to black magic and alchemy, he was expressing a widely held view of a new discipline. However, even after half a century of practical work and theorizing by some of the most accomplished social scientists, Keynes' comments are still repeated today. This book assesses the foundations and development of econometrics and sets out a basis for the reconstruction of the foundations of econo- metric inference by examining the various interpretations of probability theory which underlie econometrics. Keuzenkamp contends that the probabilistic foundations of econometrics are weak, and, although econometric inferences may yield interesting knowledge, claims to be able to falsify or verify economic theories are unwarranted. Methodological falsi®cationism in econometrics is an illusion. Instead, it is argued, econometrics should locate itself in the tradition of positi- vism. HUGO KEUZENKAMP is professor in applied economics at the University of Amsterdam and director of the Foundation for Economic Research in Amsterdam. Until recently he was the editor-in-chief of Economisch Statistische Berichten, a Dutch weekly periodical on economic policy. He has published widely in journals, including Economic Journal, Journal of Econometrics and Journal of Economic Surveys. © Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 0521553598 - Probability, Econometrics and Truth: The Methodology of Econometrics Hugo A. Keuzenkamp Frontmatter More information Probability, Econometrics and Truth The methodology of econometrics Hugo A. Keuzenkamp © Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 0521553598 - Probability, Econometrics and Truth: The Methodology of Econometrics Hugo A. -
Econometrics As a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: on Lawrence R
Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics Erich Pinzón-Fuchs To cite this version: Erich Pinzón-Fuchs. Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics. 2016. halshs-01364809 HAL Id: halshs-01364809 https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01364809 Preprint submitted on 12 Sep 2016 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Documents de Travail du Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics Erich PINZÓN FUCHS 2014.80 Maison des Sciences Économiques, 106-112 boulevard de L'Hôpital, 75647 Paris Cedex 13 http://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/ ISSN : 1955-611X Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics Erich Pinzón Fuchs† October 2014 Abstract Lawrence R. Klein (1920-2013) played a major role in the construction and in the further dissemination of econometrics from the 1940s. Considered as one of the main developers and practitioners of macroeconometrics, Klein’s influence is reflected in his application of econometric modelling “to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies” for which he was awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel in 1980. -
Keynesian Economics and the Oslo School Ib E
Nordic Journal of Political Economy Volume 36 2010 Article 3 Keynesian economics and the Oslo School Ib E. Eriksen and Arild Sæther Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Agder, Kristiansand, Norway. E-mail adress: [email protected] Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Agder, Kristiansand, Norway. E-mail adress: [email protected] This article can be dowloaded from: http://www.nopecjournal.org/NOPEC_2010_a03.pdf Other articles from the Nordic Journal of Political Economy can be found at: http://www.nopecjournal.org ISSN 0345-8555 Keynesian economics and the Oslo School 1 Ib E. Eriksen and Arild Sæther Keynesian economics and the Oslo School1 Abstract The economic crisis of the 1930‟s hit Norway when Ragnar Frisch returned from the US to accept a professorship at University of Oslo. On his return he wrote newspaper articles proposing tax relief and monetary policies to fight the economic crisis. Frisch abandoned his monetary policies and developed his Oslo School emphasising mathematical models, econometrics, national accounts, and detailed state governance. For the next four decades this School dominated economic policy in Norway where market forces had been substituted with administrative decision making. Keynes, with his General Theory, pointed out that a market economy with an active government can secure full employment. When the ideas of the Oslo School were challenged at the end of the 1970‟s, by academics and through the poor performance of the economy, it collapsed. A decentralised market economy was reintroduced and The Keynesian paradigm emerged as the preferred theory compared to the approach of the Oslo School. -
Macroeconomic Dynamics at the Cowles Commission from the 1930S to the 1950S
MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS AT THE COWLES COMMISSION FROM THE 1930S TO THE 1950S By Robert W. Dimand May 2019 COWLES FOUNDATION DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 2195 COWLES FOUNDATION FOR RESEARCH IN ECONOMICS YALE UNIVERSITY Box 208281 New Haven, Connecticut 06520-8281 http://cowles.yale.edu/ Macroeconomic Dynamics at the Cowles Commission from the 1930s to the 1950s Robert W. Dimand Department of Economics Brock University 1812 Sir Isaac Brock Way St. Catharines, Ontario L2S 3A1 Canada Telephone: 1-905-688-5550 x. 3125 Fax: 1-905-688-6388 E-mail: [email protected] Keywords: macroeconomic dynamics, Cowles Commission, business cycles, Lawrence R. Klein, Tjalling C. Koopmans Abstract: This paper explores the development of dynamic modelling of macroeconomic fluctuations at the Cowles Commission from Roos, Dynamic Economics (Cowles Monograph No. 1, 1934) and Davis, Analysis of Economic Time Series (Cowles Monograph No. 6, 1941) to Koopmans, ed., Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models (Cowles Monograph No. 10, 1950) and Klein’s Economic Fluctuations in the United States, 1921-1941 (Cowles Monograph No. 11, 1950), emphasizing the emergence of a distinctive Cowles Commission approach to structural modelling of macroeconomic fluctuations influenced by Cowles Commission work on structural estimation of simulation equations models, as advanced by Haavelmo (“A Probability Approach to Econometrics,” Cowles Commission Paper No. 4, 1944) and in Cowles Monographs Nos. 10 and 14. This paper is part of a larger project, a history of the Cowles Commission and Foundation commissioned by the Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics at Yale University. Presented at the Association Charles Gide workshop “Macroeconomics: Dynamic Histories. When Statics is no longer Enough,” Colmar, May 16-19, 2019. -
'1E and on the Giannini Foundation J'
l i37 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LIBRARY UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA DAVIS, CALIF. 95616 University of California College of Agriculture Agricultural Experiment Station Berkeley, California ii. I ! J INFLATION AND AGRICULTURE by J. M.lTinley Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, ~tk Associate Agricultural Economist in the Experiment Station '1e and on the Giannini Foundation j'. ' - A Paper Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Western Farm Economics Association,, Reno" Nevada June 23, 24, and 25, 1937 re INFLATION AND AGRICULTURE J. M. Tinley College of Agriculture University of California What is inflation? The Encyclopaedia of tho Social Sc.iences states that the meaning an economist associates with the terms "inflation" or its opposite, "deflation," is apt to vary in accordance with his views regarding the money-credit-price mechanism. It then proceeds to enumerate a dozen or more definitions or variations of definitions by economists like Keynes, Cassels, and Laughlin. Still other definitions are given by Kemmerer, Hardy, and Mohr. To be in style I shall be presumptious enough to present my own dofinition or rather understanding of the term. The layman usually applies the terms inflation and deflation to increases or decreases in the general level of prices, regardless of the causes of such changes. Economists, however, usually apply the terms mainly to rapid price changes originating on the money•credit side of tho equation of exchange - changes in the volume of circulating media (including velocity) in relation to the volume of trade. Within recent years some economists (especially some New Deal economists) have given the terms a somewhat new meaning. They visualize some sort of a norm or stubiltzod price level. -
The Austrian Theory of Money by Murray N
The Austrian Theory of Money By Murray N. Rothbard [Reprinted from The Foundations of Modern Austrian Economics, Edwin Dolan, ed. (Kansas City: Sheed Andrews and McMeel, 1976), pp. 160-84.; The Logic of Action One: Method, Money, and the Austrian School (Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 1997), pp. 297-320. The pagination on this edition corresponds to the Logic edition.] The Austrian theory of money virtually begins and ends with Ludwig von Mises's monumental Theory of Money and Credit, published in 1912.1 Mises's fundamental accomplishment was to take the theory of marginal utility, built up by Austrian economists and other marginalists as the explanation for consumer demand and market price, and apply it to the demand for and the value, or the price, of money. No longer did the theory of money need to be separated from the general economic theory of individual action and utility, of supply, demand, and price; no longer did monetary theory have to suffer isolation in a context of "velocities of circulation," "price levels," and "equations of exchange." In applying the analysis of supply and demand to money, Mises used the Wicksteedian concept: supply is the total stock of a commodity at any given time; and demand is the total market demand to gain and hold cash balances, built up out of the marginal-utility rankings of units of money on the value scales of individuals on the market. The Wicksteedian concept is particularly appropriate to money for several reasons: first, because the supply of money is either extremely durable in relation to current production, as under the gold standard, or is determined exogenously to the market by government authority; and, second and most important, because money, uniquely among commodities desired and demanded on the market, is acquired not to be consumed, but to be held for later exchange. -
Measures of Underlying Inflation and Their Role in the Conduct of Monetary Policy
PROCEEDINGS June 1999 MEASURES OF UNDERLYING INFLATION AND THEIR ROLE IN THE CONDUCT OF MONETARY POLICY Proceedings of the workshop of central bank model builders held at the BIS on 18-19 February 1999 BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS Monetary and Economic Department Basel, Switzerland Note: The papers included in this volume are to be considered as working papers. They should be cited as working papers and considered preliminary drafts of any subsequent publication. They are reproduced here to make them easily available to anyone having an interest in the subject of the workshop because participation in the workshop is restricted to central banks. Although all papers have been screened for relevance to the subject matter of the workshop, they have not been subject to a rigorous refereeing process nor edited for form or content by the Bank for International Settlements. Copies of publications are available from: Bank for International Settlements Information, Press & Library Services CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland Fax: +41 61 / 280 91 00 and +41 61 / 280 81 00 This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 1999. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISBN 92-9131-072-7 PROCEEDINGS June 1999 MEASURES OF UNDERLYING INFLATION AND THEIR ROLE IN THE CONDUCT OF MONETARY POLICY Proceedings of the workshop of central bank model builders held at the BIS on 18-19 February 1999 BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS Monetary and Economic Department -
ΒΙΒΛΙΟΓ ΡΑΦΙΑ Bibliography
Τεύχος 53, Οκτώβριος-Δεκέμβριος 2019 | Issue 53, October-December 2019 ΒΙΒΛΙΟΓ ΡΑΦΙΑ Bibliography Βραβείο Νόμπελ στην Οικονομική Επιστήμη Nobel Prize in Economics Τα τεύχη δημοσιεύονται στον ιστοχώρο της All issues are published online at the Bank’s website Τράπεζας: address: https://www.bankofgreece.gr/trapeza/kepoe https://www.bankofgreece.gr/en/the- t/h-vivliothhkh-ths-tte/e-ekdoseis-kai- bank/culture/library/e-publications-and- anakoinwseis announcements Τράπεζα της Ελλάδος. Κέντρο Πολιτισμού, Bank of Greece. Centre for Culture, Research and Έρευνας και Τεκμηρίωσης, Τμήμα Documentation, Library Section Βιβλιοθήκης Ελ. Βενιζέλου 21, 102 50 Αθήνα, 21 El. Venizelos Ave., 102 50 Athens, [email protected] Τηλ. 210-3202446, [email protected], Tel. +30-210-3202446, 3202396, 3203129 3202396, 3203129 Βιβλιογραφία, τεύχος 53, Οκτ.-Δεκ. 2019, Bibliography, issue 53, Oct.-Dec. 2019, Nobel Prize Βραβείο Νόμπελ στην Οικονομική Επιστήμη in Economics Συντελεστές: Α. Ναδάλη, Ε. Σεμερτζάκη, Γ. Contributors: A. Nadali, E. Semertzaki, G. Tsouri Τσούρη Βιβλιογραφία, αρ.53 (Οκτ.-Δεκ. 2019), Βραβείο Nobel στην Οικονομική Επιστήμη 1 Bibliography, no. 53, (Oct.-Dec. 2019), Nobel Prize in Economics Πίνακας περιεχομένων Εισαγωγή / Introduction 6 2019: Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer 7 Μονογραφίες / Monographs ................................................................................................... 7 Δοκίμια Εργασίας / Working papers ...................................................................................... -
Who Will Win the Nobel Prize in Economics? Here’S a Forecast Based on Citation Indicators
EUGENE GARFIELD INSTITUTE FOF3 SCIENTIFIC IN FORM AT ION8 3501 MAFIKETST Pnil_AOELPHt A PA 19104 Who Will Win the Nobel Prize in Economics? Here’s a Forecast Based on Citation Indicators Number 11 March 12, 1990 Speculations on who will win the Nobel Prize have appeared in the popular press. 7he Scierrrist~’s success in forecasting the 1989 prize in physiology or medicine is discussed, as is the correlation between citations, receipt of Nobel Prizes and other prestigious awards, and subjective expert judg- ment. Baaed on primary author data in the 1966-1986 .%&d Sciences Citationbukrm, the 50 most-cit- ed economists “of Nobel class” are identified and compared with peer judgments. Forecasting the Nobel Prizes be fairly accurate indicators of Nobel stat- ure. The Lasker Award and the Gairdner Recently, the newspaper The Scientist@ Award are two of these so-called Nobel pre- published a list naming 20 researchers who, dictor prizes. Further, prizewinning capacity it predicted, were $‘of Nobel class” and and big citation tallies have been found to most likely to win the prize in physiology be highly correlated.4 or medicine. I About two weeks later, the So, 7he Scientist used as its selection cri- 1989 award was amounted and, as it hap- teria exceedingly high citation counts (pick- pened, two scientists on the list were select- ing names from a list of the 500 most-cited ed by the Nobel committee: J. Michael Bish- scientists of 1973-1984), receipt of Nobel op and Harold E. Varmus, both of the Uni- precursor prizes, and preferably both, to for- versity of California, Sart Francisco. -
The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process
1017-01 BPEA/Sims 12/30/02 14:48 Page 1 CHRISTOPHER A. SIMS Princeton University The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process This is a paper on the way data relate to decisionmaking in central banks. One component of the paper is based on a series of interviews with staff members and a few policy committee members of four central banks: the Swedish Riksbank, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England, and the U.S. Federal Reserve. These interviews focused on the policy process and sought to determine how forecasts were made, how uncertainty was characterized and handled, and what role formal economic models played in the process at each central bank. In each of the four central banks, “subjective” forecasting, based on data analysis by sectoral “experts,” plays an important role. At the Federal Reserve, a seventeen-year record of model-based forecasts can be com- pared with a longer record of subjective forecasts, and a second compo- nent of this paper is an analysis of these records. Two of the central banks—the Riksbank and the Bank of England— have explicit inflation-targeting policies that require them to set quantita- tive targets for inflation and to publish, several times a year, their forecasts of inflation. A third component of the paper discusses the effects of such a policy regime on the policy process and on the role of models within it. The large models in use in central banks today grew out of a first generation of large models that were thought to be founded on the statisti- cal theory of simultaneous-equations models. -
Core Inflation: a Review of Some Conceptual Issues
II Core Inflation: A Review of Some Conceptual Issues Mark A. Wynne This paper reviews various approaches to the measurement of core inflation that have been pro- posed over the years using the stochastic approach to index numbers as a unifying framework. It begins with a review of how the concept of core inflation is used by the world’s major central banks, including some of the inflation-targeting central banks. The author provides a comprehensive review of many of the measures of core inflation that have been developed over the years and highlights some of the conceptual and practical problems associated with them. (JEL E31, C43) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, May/June 2008, 90(3, Part 2), pp. 205-28. he notion of core inflation has played In this paper I critically review various an important role in the deliberations approaches to measuring core inflation by linking of monetary policymakers for the past these approaches in a single theoretical frame- 25 years. However, despite the central work, the so-called stochastic approach to index Trole of this concept, there is still no consensus numbers. I evaluate the competing merits of the on how best to go about measuring core inflation. different approaches and argue that a common The most elementary approach, and the one that shortcoming is the absence of a well-formulated is probably the most widely used, consists of theory of what these measures of inflation are simply excluding certain categories of prices from supposed to be capturing. The notion that they the overall inflation rate. -
Core Inflation: a Review of Some Conceptual Issues*
CORE INFLATION: A REVIEW OF SOME CONCEPTUAL ISSUES* Mark A. Wynne DG Research European Central Bank Kaiserstraße 29 60311 Frankfurt am Main April 1999 Core Inflation: A Review of Some Conceptual Issues Abstract: This paper reviews various approaches to the measurement of core inflation that have been proposed in recent years. The objective is to determine whether the ECB should pay special attention to one or other of these measures in assessing inflation developments in the euro area. I put particular emphasis on the conceptual and practical problems that arise in the measurement of core inflation, and propose some criteria that could be used by the ECB to choose a core inflation measure. * I thank Vítor Gaspar, David Lebow, Fabio Scacciavillani and seminar participants at the ECB for comments. This paper is part of a larger project on the measurement of core inflation in the euro area. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Central Bank or the European System of Central Banks. 1 1. INTRODUCTION The notion of core inflation has played an important role in the deliberations of monetary policymakers for the past twenty-five years. However, despite the central role of this concept, there is still no consensus on how best to go about measuring core inflation. The most elementary approach, and the one that is probably the most widely used, consists of simply excluding certain categories of prices from the overall inflation rate. This is the so-called “Ex. food and energy” approach to core inflation measurement, and it reflects the origin of the concept of core inflation in the turbulent decade of the 1970’s.