International Community Stresses Peaceful Solution to Korean Nuclear Issue
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A WAY FORWARD with IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy
A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 Cover photo: Associated Press Photo/Photographer: Mohammad Berno 2 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY CONTENTS List of Abbreviations 4 List of Figures 5 Key Findings 6 How Did We Reach This Point? 7 Roots of the U.S.-Iran Relationship 9 The Results of the Maximum Pressure Policy 13 Any Change in Iranian Behavior? 21 Biden Administration Policy and Implementation Options 31 Conclusion 48 Contributors 49 About The Soufan Center 51 3 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS BPD Barrels Per Day FTO Foreign Terrorist Organization GCC Gulf Cooperation Council IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile IMF International Monetary Fund IMSC International Maritime Security Construct INARA Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act INSTEX Instrument for Supporting Trade Exchanges IRGC Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC-QF Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - Qods Force JCPOA Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action MBD Million Barrels Per Day PMF Popular Mobilization Forces SRE Significant Reduction Exception 4 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Iran Annual GDP Growth and Change in Crude Oil Exports 18 Figure 2: Economic Effects of Maximum Pressure 19 Figure 3: Armed Factions Supported by Iran 25 Figure 4: Comparison of Iran Nuclear Program with JCPOA Limitations 28 5 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. -
Country Report Iran March 2017
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Country Report Iran Generated on November 13th 2017 Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square London E14 4QW United Kingdom _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For 60 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square The Economist Group London 750 Third Avenue E14 4QW 5th Floor United Kingdom New York, NY 10017, US Tel: +44 (0) 20 7576 8181 Tel: +1 212 541 0500 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7576 8476 Fax: +1 212 586 0248 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Hong Kong Geneva The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 1301 Cityplaza Four Rue de l’Athénée 32 12 Taikoo Wan Road 1206 Geneva Taikoo Shing Switzerland Hong Kong Tel: +852 2585 3888 Tel: +41 22 566 24 70 Fax: +852 2802 7638 Fax: +41 22 346 93 47 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] This report can be accessed electronically as soon as it is published by visiting store.eiu.com or by contacting a local sales representative. -
Iran Case File (April 2021)
IRAN CASE FILE April 2021 RASANAH International Institute for Iranian Studies, Al-Takhassusi St. Sahafah, Riyadh Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. P.O. Box: 12275 | Zip code: 11473 Contact us [email protected] +966112166696 Executive Summary .....................................................................................4 Internal Affairs ........................................................................................... 7 The Ideological File .............................................................................................8 1. Women and the “Political Man” ............................................................................... 8 2. Khatami and the Position of Women ......................................................................10 The Political File ............................................................................................... 12 1. The Most Notable Highlights of the Leaked Interview .............................................12 2. Consequences and Reactions .................................................................................13 3. The Position of the Iranian President and Foreign Ministry on the Interview ..........14 4. The Implications of Leaking the Interview at This Time..........................................15 The Economic File ............................................................................................. 16 1. Bitcoin’s Genesis Globally and the Start of Its Use in Iran ........................................16 2. The Importance of Bitcoin for Iran -
People's Anti-Violence Rallies Foiled Enemies' Plot
WWW.TEHRANTIMES.COM I N T E R N A T I O N A L D A I L Y 16 Pages Price 40,000 Rials 1.00 EURO 4.00 AED 39th year No.13540 Thursday NOVEMBER 28, 2019 Azar 7, 1398 Rabi’ Al thani 1, 1441 Rouhani promises Iran believes IFFHS Awards: IIDCYA CEO warns to help quake-hit in a strong Faghani best Asian about rise in imported people 2 neighborhood 2 referee of 2019 15 children’s literature 16 Domestic production to save Iran $10b in 2 years People’s anti-violence TEHRAN — Iranian Industry, Mining munications equipment, and $400 million and Trade Minister Reza Rahmani said via indigenizing production of car parts, that relying on domestic production will of which $300 million has been already save $10 billion for the country in the next achieved. two years, IRIB reported. “Today, all available potentials and Speaking in a ceremony on indigeniz- capacities in the country are being used rallies foiled enemies’ plot ing production of telecommunications to materialize the target of domestic equipment on Tuesday, the minister said production and the Ministry of Indus- that of the mentioned $10 billion, some try, Mining and Trade will spare no See page 2 $500 million is predicted to be earned effort in this due”, Rahmani further through domestic production of telecom- emphasized. 4 731 banks, 70 gas stations destroyed in recent unrest: minister TEHRAN — Interior Minister Abdolreza religious centers and burned 307 auto- Rahmani Fazli says 731 banks and 70 gas mobiles and 1076 motorcycles,” he added. -
Zarif, Ansarullah Official Hold Talks in Oman
WWW.TEHRANTIMES.COM I N T E R N A T I O N A L D A I L Y 16 Pages Price 40,000 Rials 1.00 EURO 4.00 AED 39th year No.13563 Wednesday DECEMBER 25, 2019 Dey 4, 1398 Rabi’ Al thani 28, 1441 Top commander felicitates Expediency Council still Stramaccioni, Congratulations on birth anniversary of evaluating FATF-related Esteghlal; an unsolved the birth anniversary of Jesus Christ to all Jesus Christ 2 bills 2 problem 15 monotheists in the world Iran, India to expand transit co-op through Chabahar port TEHRAN – Iranian Transport and Urban between Iran and India has been followed Zarif, Ansarullah official Development Minister Mohammad Esla- in a variety of aspects and a number of new mi and Indian Minister of External Affairs agreements have been reached, the most Subrahmanyam Jaishankar met on Monday important of which were in transportation in Tehran to discuss expansion of transport and transit with Chabahar in focus. and transit cooperation between the two In the past few years, the development countries, especially through Chabahar port. of Chabahar port has been pursued very Speaking to the press after the meet- seriously, so that trade activities in the hold talks in Oman ing, the Iranian minister noted that the port have more than tripled in the past See page 2 development of economic cooperation two years, according to Eslami. 4 Tehran rejects Reuters’ claim on unrest death toll TEHRAN — An official at Iran’s Supreme accusations is basically very easy,” he National Security Council (SNSC) has said, describing the act as a psychological denied a claim by Reuters that said the operation against the Islamic Republic. -
Iran: World's Largest Untapped Frontier Market
Iran: World’s Largest Untapped Frontier Market Iran: World's Largest Untapped Frontier Market IRAN IN BRIEF Population 78.4 million (2nd Stock exchange $100bn largest after Egypt) (Tehran) Area 1,648,195 sq km (2nd No of listed 314 largest in Middle East) companies GDP (2014, $404bn ($401bn of Literacy (10-49 97% current price) UAE) ages) GDP (2014, PPP) $1,334bn ($1.508bn Young population 60% under 30 years of Turkey) old GDP per capita $17,114 ($16,100 of Major industries: Manufacturing & (PPP) Brazil) mining, oil & gas, services, agriculture Crude oil reserves 4th world‘s largest Key exports Crude oil, petroleum products Natural gas 1st world‘s largest Gross official $110bn reserves reserves Crude oil 2nd largest in OPEC External debt 1.8% of GDP production 2 Iran: World's Largest Untapped Frontier Market CONTENTS Iran in Brief 2 Iran in Numbers 6 Summary 8 Recent Key Developments At a Glance 9 Economy 11 GDP and Oil Exports 11 Foreign Investments: Inviting Global Oil Majors 14 Inflation and Exchange Rate 16 Government Finances 18 Economic Outlook 20 Key Macroeconomic Indicators 22 Politics 23 Political System 23 Presidential Elections 24 Nuclear Program 25 Comprehensive Nuclear Deal 27 Framework Nuclear Deal 28 Landmark Interim Agreement 29 International Sanctions on Iran 30 Key Industry Focus 33 Oil & Gas 33 Mining and Manufacturing 36 Banking and Financial Services 39 Power 41 Transport and Aviation 43 Telecom 45 Retail Market 47 Pharma and Health Care 49 Education 52 Tourism and Hospitality 55 Digital Economy 58 Opportunities Across Asset Classes 60 Public Equities 60 Private Equity 64 Real Estate 65 Annex I. -
The Intelligence Organization of the IRGC: a Major Iranian Intelligence Apparatus Dr
רמה כ ז מל ו תשר מה ו ד י ע י ן ( למ מ" ) רמה כרמ כ ז ז מל מה ו י תשר עד מל מה ו ד ו י ד ע י י ע ן י ן ו רטל ( למ ו מ" ר ) כרמ ז מה י עד מל ו ד י ע י ן ו רטל ו ר The Intelligence Organization of the IRGC: A Major Iranian Intelligence Apparatus Dr. Raz Zimmt November 5, 2020 Main Argument The Intelligence Organization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has become a major intelligence apparatus of the Islamic Republic, having increased its influence and broadened its authorities. Iran’s intelligence apparatus, similar to other control and governance apparatuses in the Islamic Republic, is characterized by power plays, rivalries and redundancy. The Intelligence Organization of the IRGC, which answers to the supreme leader, operates alongside the Ministry of Intelligence, which was established in 1984 and answers to the president. The redundancy and overlap in the authorities of the Ministry of Intelligence and the IRGC’s Intelligence Organization have created disagreements and competition over prestige between the two bodies. In recent years, senior regime officials and officials within the two organizations have attempted to downplay the extent of disagreements between the organizations, and strove to present to domestic and foreign audience a visage of unity. The IRGC’s Intelligence Organization (ILNA, July 16, 2020) The IRGC’s Intelligence Organization, in its current form, was established in 2009. The Organization’s origin is in the Intelligence Unit of the IRGC, established shortly after the Islamic Revolution (1979). -
Country Report Iran September 2017
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Country Report Iran Generated on November 13th 2017 Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square London E14 4QW United Kingdom _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For 60 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where the latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 20 Cabot Square The Economist Group London 750 Third Avenue E14 4QW 5th Floor United Kingdom New York, NY 10017, US Tel: +44 (0) 20 7576 8181 Tel: +1 212 541 0500 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7576 8476 Fax: +1 212 586 0248 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Hong Kong Geneva The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 1301 Cityplaza Four Rue de l’Athénée 32 12 Taikoo Wan Road 1206 Geneva Taikoo Shing Switzerland Hong Kong Tel: +852 2585 3888 Tel: +41 22 566 24 70 Fax: +852 2802 7638 Fax: +41 22 346 93 47 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] This report can be accessed electronically as soon as it is published by visiting store.eiu.com or by contacting a local sales representative. -
Takfiris in Tehran: the Sectarian Face of Iranian Counterterrorism by Mehdi Khalaji
MENU Policy Analysis / PolicyWatch 2637 Takfiris in Tehran: The Sectarian Face of Iranian Counterterrorism by Mehdi Khalaji Jun 24, 2016 Also available in Arabic ABOUT THE AUTHORS Mehdi Khalaji Mehdi Khalaji, a Qom-trained Shiite theologian, is the Libitzky Family Fellow at The Washington Institute. Brief Analysis While the severity of the Sunni extremist threat inside Iran is debatable, the regime's recent operations against suspected terrorists highlight its pattern of exploiting sectarian sentiment to bolster its regional adventurism. n June 14, Iran's Ministry of Intelligence launched a series of operations leading to the arrest of ten O "Wahhabi takfiri terrorists" in Tehran and three other provinces. Following the initial announcement of the crackdown on June 19, Intelligence Minister Mahmoud Alavi provided further details about the captured suspects two days later. According to him, "their plan was to attack several crowded spots using remote bombs and car bombs"; they had prepared a list of fifty targets in all. Agents also reportedly seized about one kilogram of explosive material and used "sophisticated measures" to prevent the delivery of two tons more to "terrorists." Video clips claiming to show the sting have been posted to the website of Fars News , a media outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The actual scope and severity of this threat remain uncertain for now, but the rhetoric surrounding the regime's response holds clear domestic implications. In addition to treating terrorist infiltration as a political football in recent years, various officials have been using loaded words like "takfir" to rally the public behind Tehran's sectarian regional agenda. -
Iran's Foreign and Defense Policies
Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies Updated May 8, 2019 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R44017 SUMMARY R44017 Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies May 8, 2019 Iran’s national security policy is the product of many overlapping and sometimes competing factors such as the ideology of Iran’s Islamic revolution, perception of threats Kenneth Katzman to the regime and to the country, long-standing national interests, and the interaction of Specialist in Middle the Iranian regime’s factions and constituencies. Iran’s leadership: Eastern Affairs x Seeks to deter or thwart U.S. or other efforts to invade or intimidate Iran or to bring about a change of regime. x Has sought to take advantage of opportunities of regional conflicts to overturn a power structure in the Middle East that it asserts favors the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni Muslim Arab regimes. x Seeks to enhance its international prestige and restore a sense of “greatness” reminiscent of ancient Persian empires. x Advances its foreign policy goals, in part by providing material support to regional allied governments and armed factions. Iranian officials characterize the support as helping the region’s “oppressed” and assert that Saudi Arabia, in particular, is instigating sectarian tensions and trying to exclude Iran from regional affairs. x Sometimes disagrees on tactics and strategies. Supreme Leader Ali Khamene’i and key hardline institutions, such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), oppose any compromises of Iran’s national security core goals. Iran’s elected president, Hassan Rouhani, and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif support Iran’s integration into regional and international diplomacy. -
Iran to Unveil Homemade Nuclear Batteries Soon and You Dwell In
2 December 10, 2017 DOMESTIC NEWS Iran to Unveil Homemade Kayhan Group of Newspapers Editorial Dept. Tel.: 33911561, 33110251-9 Nuclear Batteries Soon And you dwell in Ext.: 2334, 2336, 2337 the abodes of those Advertising Dept.: 33110251-9 Ext. 2336 who were unjust to Subscription Ext.: 2322 themselves, and it is Facsimile: 33114228 & 33111120 clear to you how We Website: www.kayhan.ir/en dealt with them and E-mail: [email protected] P.O. Box: 11365/9631 We have made (them) Address: Martyr Shah Cheraghi Street, Ferdowsi Avenue, examples to you. Tehran – Islamic Republic of Iran The Holy Qur’an (14.45) In the Name of the Most High Viewpoint PRAYER TIMINGS Noon (Zohr) 11:51 Evening(Maghreb) 17:11 Ball in British Court for Improvement Dawn(Fajr)“ Tomorrow” 05:34 of Ties with Islamic Iran Sunrise “Tomorrow” 07:04 By: Kayhan Int’l Staff Writer The technology, he said, could be used in producing cardiac pacemakers and “Beware of the Old Fox” is a famous saying among Iranians, who have no trust laptops with additional applications whatsoever in Britain in view of the irreparable harm done to Iran, its people, its in the oil sector and the relocation of national interests, its sovereignty, and its territorial integrity, over the past two satellites. A worker rides a bicycle in front of the reactor building of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, just outside the centuries by the crafty colonial power of yesteryears. The official expressed hope that the southern city of Bushehr on October 26, 2010. Today the ‘Old Fox’ is without doubt a mere shadow of its colonial past but its country would take further steps toward cunning persists as it follows the present predator, the US, hoping to have for itself developing and commercializing TEHRAN (Dispatches) – Head of the county’s health and energy sectors soon. -
Viral Tragedy in the Islamic Republic of Iran By-Apurbaa Sengupta, Research Intern, AIDIA 1 August 2020
Viral tragedy in the Islamic Republic of Iran By-Apurbaa Sengupta, Research Intern, AIDIA 1 August 2020 Introduction: The spread of a virus, as fatal as the Coronavirus, constitutes an enormous threat to mankind anywhere in the world. The beginning of the new decade observed the entire world plunge into an extraordinary global public health crisis, the first of its kind in centuries. A respiratory disease, popularised worldwide as the Coronavirus broke out from the Huanan Seafood Market in the Chinese province of Wuhan and eventually trickled into every corner of the world1. The politically instable and disturbed region, such as the Middle East was not an exception. Within two months of the viral outbreak, the Islamic Republic of Iran acquired the second position after China, in terms of the worst affected countries and emerged as an epicentre of the epidemic2. The country which had for so long been debilitated by international sanctions and economic fallouts now wrestled to cope with a health emergency. What further exacerbated the plight of Iranians was a belated, haphazard government response to counter the looming threat and politicisation of the invisible enemy by leaders to gain political dividends. The initial outbreak of the global infection: The location of Iran is several thousand kilometres away from the original epicentre of the global infection. How then did the invisible global enemy reach the Islamic Republic? Iran reported its first confirmed case of Coronavirus on February 19, 20203. Reports from the authorities suggest that the widening outbreak began in the holy city of Qom and the authorities acknowledged the presence of the virus only after the city reported two COVID deaths.