californiawinning.com

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144th : Preview

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Location, Time:

Pimlico Race Course, 5201 Park Heights Avenue, Baltimore, Maryland, 877-206- 8042 (For Tickets), Saturday, May 18, Race # 13 @ 6:20 P.M. EDT (watch on NBC network, NBCSports.com, or NBCSportsapp)

Weather:

Current reports (as of 12 p.m. EDT, Tuesday, May 14) present a forecast of mostly cloudy, and a 20% chance of rain on Saturday, with winds from the north at 6 m.p.h.. A lot can change in four days: let’s hope so for the better.

The Race:

It is about 1 3/16 miles (about 9.5 furlongs~1900 meters) race, on the main [dirt] track, with eight equine athletes in the 2018 version, all of whom are three year old colts, participating. All of the Triple Crown races are uncommonly long races, beyond the norm for most of the contestants and the combination of the distance of the races coupled with their closeness in time seems to be designed to prevent a Triple Crown winner, (yes I know, they spelled his name wrong, it’s not me this time) and notwithstanding.

Only eleven of the last twenty-two winners have gone on to win the Preakness. Post positions will be drawn at 5 p.m. EDT Wednesday, May 15 at Pimlico.

The winner’s share this year is $900000. Obviously there is no potential for a Triple Crown winner this year as the “winner” of the Kentucky Derby, Country House, will not participate in The Preakness. The Twelve Contestants and the Very Early (Not M/L) Odds (courtesy CBS Sports):

Notable horses “missing” from this field: Country House, Beach, McKinzie, and to name a few.

Always Mining 8/1

Anothertwistafate 12/1

Bodexpress 16/1

Bourbon War 10/1

Improbable 2/1 (likely favorite)

Laughing Fox 20/1

Market King 20/1

Owendale 10/1

Signalman 14/1

War of Will 3/1

Win Win Win 8/1

Warrior’s Charge 16/1

In essence, we have three co-favorites and nine “longshots.”

As noted above, post position draws will be made at 5 p.m. EDT, Wednesday, May 15, and the californiawinning.com Preakness Analysis will be sent to all purchasers not later than 5 p.m. Friday, May 17.

Bodexpress has never won any race. Seven other entries have never won a graded race: Alwaysmining, Anothertwistafate, Bourbon War, Laughing Fox, Market King, Win Win Win and Warrior’s Charge.

The “Official” M/L Odds:

The official M/L odds will not be out until some time after post positions are drawn, 5 p.m. Wednesday. It is notable that favorites win The Preakness a lot: 52% of the time.

The Winning Post Position Stats -1908 to the Present

Since 1908, there have been 112 runnings of The Preakness. Here are the aggregate number of wins for each of post positions 1-8:

#1 10 #2 12 #3 12 #4 13 #5 11 #6 16 #7 14 #8 10

Total: 98/111 winners in posts 1-8

Though I may be anything but a statistician, even a lay person can see that the post position appears to be largely irrelevant in terms of predicting the winner of The Preakness, at least with respect to post positions 1-8. I say that because the range of 10 to 13 winners is so small.

How Many Trainers Have Multiple Entries in the Race?, and other trainer miscellany…

Brad Cox has two entries in The Preakness: Owendale and Warrior’s Charge

Bob Baffert, trainer of , has seven previous Preakness wins. G Wayne Lukas, trainer of Market King, has six previous wins in The Preakness, the current record, so someone could forge ahead with that record after the race.

NOTE: I will have my full graded analysis of all twelve entries in the Preakness ready for transmission to you by 5 p.m. EDT Friday, May 17, 2019. Of course, you can make your purchase by making the payment of $20 at: californiawinning.com, “Today’s Full Race Card” OR

PayPal.me/SailorBoston. Thank you to all of you who have already purchased The Preakness Analysis. In addition, I will handicap the four races that precede The Preakness for fans of the Pick 5 wager. Those races will be handicapped by listing the three top horses in each race. (Those races will not present a full graded handicap of the entire field as in the case of The Preakness.) The analysis for those races will be available for purchase for an additional $20. Thank you.