Statistical Office of the European Communities Statistics for the euro M 3/99

In this issue of Sigma...

A single currency for everybody... On 1 January 1999 we entered the third stage of EMU and the euro found its place for the first time in the financial markets. This is a change that affects all Europe's citizens and hos a big impact on the economy. A lot of work has been done already but o lot still remains. It is a fascinating venture, but building a unified Europe with a single currency is a mighty challenge that requires a lot of people to work together. Many organisations, such as Eurostat, the European Central Bank and NSIs are working hard to provide the euro-statistics demanded by political and other decision-makers, the financial markets and the media.

In view of all this, we thought we should dedicate an issue of Sigma to statistics and the euro. We tried to answer key questions by interviewing some of those most closely involved in the process of making sure that such statistics were and remain up to scratch.

To this end, we asked Alberto De major role to play in the construc­ Michelis, Eurostat Director respon­ tion of the euro statistical system. sible for economic statistics and Alberto De Michelis, Eurostat economic and monetary conver­ Director, and Luca Ascoli from the Sigma - the bulletin of European statistics gence, to set the scene. He explains Eurostat unit, covering financial sta­ produced in Luxembourg by Eurostat the challenges Eurostat and all tistics, explain how the new statisti­ Chief editor other institutions concerned face in cal requirements imposed by the Amador Rodriguez Prieto this area, and highlights the impor­ single currency are being tance of accurate, efficient and addressed. Assistant chief editor comparable euro-data for the third Fons Theis stage of EMU. For a national perspective, we Editorial team turned to Jacques Pécha, Head And we could not dedicate an Barbara Jakob, John Wright of the Balance of Payments Division Steffen Schneider issue of Sigma to euro-statistics with­ in the Foreign Department of the out going to the European Central Bank of France, and John Assistant Bank. In Frankfurt we recorded the Virginie Schultz Kidgell, a UK ONS Director and views of Eugenio Domingo until recently CMFB Chairman. Layout Solans, Executive Board Member, Claudia Daman and Peter Bull, Head of the On a practical level, we asked the Statistics Directorate. Technical aspects Commission's DGs I and II for Quentin Masquelier Then we talked to Johnny Aker- concrete examples of how they use and apply euro-statistics. And we Cover holm, Chairman of the Economic Frédéric Guyon and Financial Committee (EFC) couldn't avoid the media angle: Le working group on statistics, and Monde gives us a general view of Published by public attitudes on how media pro­ Office for Official Publications of the Rafael Alvarez, new Chairman European Communities "^ of CMFB. These institutions have a mote the new currency.

Catalogue number CA-AB-99-003-EN-C Also in this issue... Svante Öberg. And we wind-up the © ECSC-EC-EAEC issue with sport: the First European Brussels · Luxembourg 1999 .. Two contributions from the Dutch Volleyball Tournament for Printed in Luxembourg CBS, the first on integration of Statisticians in Maastricht from 29- labour and energy into national 31 October. Views expressed in Sigma are those of the authors, accounts, the second on its cente­ not necessarily those of the European Commission nary... The Swiss Federal Statistical \[\\\\B next issue... Sigma is available free of charge from: Office describes its office move...... The last in our regular profiles of Eurostat We introduce the new Director- official statistics in EU Member Press & Communications Team General of Statistics Sweden, States - Belgium. Bech A4/20 L-2920 Luxembourg Fax: +352 4301 35349 Fons Theis Assistant chief editor SIGMA COMMENT ) Euro for export 28 Allan Gert Dalvin of the Commission's DG I (External relations) The euro and statistics - challenges old and new gives an example of how euro-statistics are used in practice Alberto de Michelis, Eurostat Director, sets the scene Putting the curve on track 30 Lars Boman of the Commission's DG II (Financial and economic SIGMA THEME J affairs) describes another application of euro-statistics

Euro statistics forali 32 The media perspective: Serge Marti of Le Monde describes public interest in euro-statistics The euro area - a new dimension for statistics 3 Barbara Jakob goes to Frankfurt to meet two representatives of Statistics in support of the single currency 33 the ECB, Eugenio Domingo Solans and Peter Bull Marie Wolkers of the Institut de l'Euro describes the work of promoting the euro Rowing the statistical boat 9 Barbara Jakob interviews Johnny Akerholm, Chairman of the Let Eurostat take care of the 'pennies'... 35 Economic and Financial Committee working group on statistics An idiosyncratic view of euro-statistics by French journalist François Naudin Statisticians in the shadows I 2 John Wright visits the Bank of Spain to meet Rafael Alvarez, ( FOCUS ON MEMBER STATES new Chairman of CMFB

Dear friend 17 Integration of labour & energy statistics into 35r Alberto De Michelis, Eurostat Director, writing to a fictitious friend the Dutch national accounts

Enter the euro-coordinators! 19 Statistics Netherlands looks back a century 40 Luca Ascoli describes how Eurostat responds to requirements Jacques Van Maarseveen reports on 100 years of the Dutch NSI imposed by the single currency Ecology, art and statistics in Switzerland 42 All roads lead to CMFB 21 The SFSO moved to new premises John Wright seeks a national view from Jacques Pécha, Head of the BoP Division in the Foreign Department of the Bank of France New head of Statistics Sweden and two key NSI departures 43 A near miracle for statistics 25 Another national view: John Wright in conversation with John Statisticians on the ball! 44 Kidgell, Head of National Accounts, UK ONS The European Volleyball Tournament for Statisticians Comment M A 3/99

socially in Europe, the ESS has The euro and statistics: to face up to a number of chal­ lenges in the short and medium and new term. challenges old On the one hand, there is a need to complete the range of by Alberto De Michelis short­term indicators for the euro­ zone and for the EU by making he European Statistical them as up­to­date and as acces­ System (ESS) has been under T sible as possible for analysts enormous pressure in recent and those who have to make the years in coping with the decisions. With our Euro­SICS demand for information in con­ project (Statistical Indicators on nection with decisions concern­ a Common Site), we are on the ing the euro. The focus of this verge of getting there: Eurostat pressure has been on economic will be able to provide a group statistics in particular, since of special users with about 500 these were the statistics that monthly and quarterly indicators those responsible for making for EU 15, EUR­11 and individ­ decisions in Europe were using ual countries. These indicators as the reference for the conver­ will cover a period ranging gence criteria. between five and 20 years and will be updated on a daily basis When the Maastricht Treaty was as soon as they become avail­ signed in 1992, Eurostat felt able in each country or are cal­ inclined to review the statistics culated for the euro­zone. In that were affected by the addition, a thorough method­ Treaty. The data were analysed ological documentation for from three angles: reliability ie these indicators will be part of their compilation using first­rate the databank. methods; comparability, based on their compliance with the It would also be a good idea to reference methodologies; and keep up our efforts to improve availability, in accordance with the quality of these indicators, a strict and definite schedule. especially the national accounts, We had to prepare in a very ness of the European statistical of the CNIS, France's national because our economies are short time and in acceptable cir­ system." council for statistical informa­ developing as they merge at cumstances the changeover to tion, that there could be no European level and become This challenge was taken up by the third phase of monetary sound policies on employment global at world level, and our Eurostat and by all our partners, union in accordance with the or other areas unless we could statistical techniques are official statisticians in the convergence criteria. The statis­ rely on an assessment of the cir­ advancing as the sources of Member States and at the tics that met these criteria need­ cumstances that was as unbi­ data change and become grad­ European Monetary Institute ed to be credible in the eyes of ased as possible, particularly in ually less national. (EMI), which subsequently politicians, the media and the the form of a chart of economic became the European Central Finally, we need to lay the general public. indicators for the euro­zone. Bank (ECB). groundwork in statistical terms In the summer 1995 edition of Fact and reality for the introduction of a euro­ Sigma, Yves Thibault de Silguy, In January 1999 the Ecofin zone information system, then European Commissioner Council approved a document which will not be just the sum responsible for economic and from the Economic and EMU has become a fact, and of national data but an origi­ monetary affairs but also for Financial Committee calling for the euro­zone is also a reality as nal system, special to the Eurostat, wrote in the editorial: the speedier introduction of a far as statistics are concerned. In euro­zone in terms of the "I do not think it is an exagger­ complete, rapid and reliable order to allow the European methods used to collect the ation to say that the design and system of short­term indicators institutions and the governments data and to compile the statis­ formulation of effective mecha­ for the euro­zone. At the same of the Member States to follow tics. This is a very ambitious nisms for producing both the time, Mr Strauss­Kahn, the coordinated policies and the project, and if it is going to principal and the secondary French Minister for Economic ECB to apply monetary policy succeed, it will need the indicators required for EMU will Affairs, Finance and Industry, with proper awareness of what resources and commitment of be the acid test of the effective­ was telling the plenary assembly is happening economically and everybody. ■ G M A 3 / 9 9 Statistics for the euro

The European Central Bank (ECB) ¡s not only the watch­ dog of the euro - maintain­ ing price stability through w A new dimension the conduct of monetary policy - it is also one of the key players in the field of '** for statistics euro-statistics, as both pro­ Eugenio Domingo: "One of of monetary union but even variables and such vital series ducer and user. Sigma's the first tasks of the EMI - start­ before the establishment of as harmonized consumer BARBARA JAKOB went to ed even before it came into the EMI at beginning of Stage prices soon after the key deci­ Frankfurt to talk to existence - was to establish Two, in January 1994", sions on monetary union were prospective needs for the con­ Peter Bull confirms. "For taken in May 1998.) Executive Board member duct of policy in Stage Three of nearly two years the heads of EUGENIO DOMINGO SOLANS EMU, catalogue existing statis­ statistics departments of the Somewhat lucky tics and establish what needed central banks had met in a and the head of the statis­ to be done to close the gap sub-committee of the commit­ "We didn't know what the between the two. But even if all tee of central bank governors tics directorate, PETER BULL monetary policy strategy of the necessary statistics had in Basle and discussed these the ECB would be", Peter been available from national issues before the EMI was set // ik lothing is more Bull continues. "In particular, sources - and they had been up. It was during that time - I I ^important for the we didn't know whether it closely harmonized in terms of was then Bank of England conduct of monetary poli• would have a target for mon­ definition, coverage, frequen­ member of the group - that cy than good statistics", etary growth. And if so what cy etc - much work would still we first considered what the says a statement in the definition of monetary growth have been required, because statistical requirements for Statistical requirements would be targeted. And we in certain key areas more infor­ monetary union were likely to for monetary union docu• didn't know the details of the mation was needed for proper be, checked the availability of ment. It is very clear - not monetary instruments it would consolidation at monetary data from national sources, least from this interview - use; if was particularly rele­ union level. identified the main gaps and that EMU has changed vant to us whether they would established priorities for filling the nature of statistical include a system of minimum "This is a feature of money and them." requirements. banking statistics. While reserves. We could not of employment in a monetary course know what the reserve "Existing statistics would not The EMI released a detailed union is the sum of employ­ base would be or the details have sufficed in developing the statement of statistical require­ ment in each participating of how such a system would monetary policy of the ECB", ments in July 1996 (the so- Member State, money and work. Eugenio Domingo states. called implementation pack­ credit aggregates are not sim­ He explains: "Although those age). The view was that it ply the sum of conventional "But if we had waited until we preparing the statistics for mon­ would take at least two years national aggregates, even if knew these things before we etary union were, broadly to carry out the changes. It harmonized. You need to stated the requirements it speaking, seeking the type of was hardly possible to start include cross-border holdings would have been impossible information that EU central the supply of statistics before of monetary instruments and to fulfil them. So we made a banks were already using in mid-1998 because the com­ the taking of credit, and you large number of informed the conduct of policy, there position of monetary union - need to be able to net out the guesses or assumptions about were many differences in critical for some aspects of inter-bank position across the what would be required. detail. This made if difficult to implementation - would not monetary union. These compile satisfactory aggre­ be known until about then. Yet changes had to be designed "Fortunately it turned out that gates." it was seen as necessary to and implementation begun the guesses were almost have key data by the autumn, long before the composition entirely correct. The only with back data on the new The Statute therefore gave the of the euro-area was known." changes we had to make to EMI a specific responsibility to basis as far as possible, to aid the implementation package detailed policy planning. promote the harmonization of Early preparation were some details in respect statistics. And according to (Eurostat began publishing of calculation of minimum Article 5 of the Statute, this is a "Work did, indeed, start a euro-area aggregates cover­ reserves. But otherwise it continuing task of the ECB. long time not only before start ing a range of real economic worked. It might not have Statistics for the euro M A 3/99

us to provide a properly inte­ grated consolidated set of monetary statistics.

"That was a real problem because we did not know which countries would form part of monetary union. NCBs and reporting institutions had to make all the preparations on the assumption that any or all of the EU Member States might proceed to monetary union."

All this had to be done without any legal framework. The EMI Council endorsed the propos­ als that were made but it could not really compel Member States to implement the prepa­ rations. The EMI Council had no power to issue regulations or legal instruments of any kind. So all the preparations proceeded on a voluntary basis.

Because of this lack of a legal basis and the time pressure, progress of harmonization depended very much on the goodwill of the key players - the EMI, the NCBs, Eurostat and the NSIs. Peter Bull: "No country changes its statis­ tical system easily. Everybody done; we might have been promoting the harmonization deposits within the euro-area. thinks that his or her own sta­ faced with really big difficul­ of statistics. Neither, of course, would the tistical system is the best. There ties..." credit aggregates take account were, indeed, a lot of lively dis­ "The consolidation point is of cross-border lending within cussions in the early days of "In some ways we have been more complicated and subtle. the euro-area. the EMI working group on sta­ lucky", Domingo Solans For example, ihe national tistics and the CMFB about admits. "The EMI had to do a money stock included holdings "So we had to change the exactly this sort of point - what lot of work without knowing of deposits by residents of a structure of banking statistics in was the best approach in an the exact details. And it did a country with resident banks or such a way to enable us to area, for example, such as bal­ good job in setting up the banking institutions in that compile that measure of ance of payments statistics? implementation package." country. But a concept of money stock at euro-area level. And there was a great deal of money stock in the euro-area The banking institutions had lively argument about various Something special needs to include holdings by throughout their balance sheets key aspects. residents of all euro-area coun­ to identify claims on and liabil­ Peter Bull explains what real­ tries of deposits with all bank­ ities to residents of other euro- Helpful deadlines ly makes statistics for the euro- ing institutions located in the area countries, as well as area a special case and there­ euro-area. If we simply added claims and liabilities vis à vis "I think it would have been fore calls for a second step, the up domestic money stock it residents of their own country, much more difficult to get any­ so-called 'consolidation'. "The would be incomplete because and distinguish them from where had there not been treaty says that the tasks of the it would not take account of claims on and liabilities to the deadlines. We all knew that EMI and the ECB shall include cross-border holdings and rest of the world. This enabled we must produce the imple- G M 3/99 Statistics for the euro National monetary

and bop aggregates mentation package by mid-'9ó otherwise there would not be Peter Bull: "Strictly speaking the NCBs can no national balance of payments for several pur­ time to implement the changes. longer calculate data for Ml, M2 and M3 at poses. They are also required for the IMF. But We had to assume the third national level. Although they know what we can't look at these BoP and relate them stage of EMU starting on 1 deposits their residents hold with domestic directly to euro-area BoP. January 1999. The deadline banks, they do not know what their residents gave a tremendous spur to hold with banks in other euro-area countries; "There was a lot of debate on how difficult or concentrated effort. nor do they know what other monetary instru­ easy it would be to continue to compile nation­ ments residents hold. So there is (for example) al BoP. That is one aspect of the BoP vision "People knew that we would no German M3 that is completely consistent exercise that the CMFB is currently carrying just have to agree on funda• with euro-area M3. out. And it was one of the considerations mental things by spring 1996 which originally led the Monetary Committee "In fact, a matter of current discussion is what at the latest, and that involved we call national contributions to euro-area group on statistics to be formed. The debate everybody in making compro• aggregates. All Member States need to compile continues..." mises. I guess we were helped

SHARED RESPONSIBILITIES INGREDIENT TO THE ECONOMIC BACKGROUND n order to fulfil the tasks of the ESCB, the ECB also has a statistical obligation. IResponsibility for euro-statistics is shared between the ECB and Eurostat. While // A nother large area of European statistics within the responsibility of Eurostat money and banking statistics ore fully within the competence of the ECB at Min which we have an interest and press our requirements on Eurostat is European level, the ECB shares responsibility for balance of payments, the interna• national accounts, the components of income, output and expenditure, prices and tional investment position ond financial accounts with Eurostat. Price and cost and costs, including the HICP, government accounts -the whole range of general eco• other economic statistics are solely within the responsibility of Eurostat. Both insti• nomic statistics that provides ingredients to the background of monetary policy. tutions hove to work closely with the national authorities responsible for collecting This corresponds to the second pillar of our monetary policy strategy: to look at a statistical information in Member States. Peter Bull on the relationships involved range of economic variables, in particular from the perspective of assessment of and how the 'division of labour' works in practice: the prospects of price stability."

"The main lines of responsibility between us and Eurostat for statistics at European The ECB and the EU national central banks together form the ESCB (the ECB and level are that money and banking statistics and associated statistics are the the NCBs of Member States in the euro area form the Eurosystem). The coopera• responsibility of the ECB (and previously the EMI). tion with NCBs is comparable to the relationship between Eurostat and NSIs. The central banks collect data from reporting agents. The compilation of the data at "There ore two large areas of joint responsibility between ECB and Eurostat: bal• European level is done by the ECB. The conceptual work and development of sta• ance of payments and financial accounts, partly because there are policy aspects tistics are a joint enterprise. "Central banks have a lot of very experienced peo• of both that are of interest to the Commission as well as to the ECB. In the balance ple", Peter Bull continues. "We seek their advice on all matters concerning statistical of payments area there are important links with trade and industry policy - the concepts and the future development of statistics. We do this through our committee type of consideration that is of particular interest to the Commission. At the some structure. The ECB has a number of committees. Each is responsible for an area of time the ECB wants BoP statistics viewed as part of the background to the conduct work relating to the ECB's functions. The statistics committee that I chair comprises the of monetary policy and as an influence on monetary and financial conditions. heads of statistics in the NCBs and we meet five to six times a year and discuss all Within the BoP there is specialisation between the two organisations: the ECB is matters concerning conceptual development of statistics and implementation of statis• responsible for monthly BoP statistics right across the accounts and otherwise, tico! requirements." broadly speaking, for the financial account. Within the quarterly BoP statistics Eurostat takes responsibility for the current account and the new-style capital account ie capital transfers etc. Eurostat and the ECB regularly attend each other's committees. The CMFB plays a key role in the process of cooperation: the ECB is a full member of the CMFB and "But there are two exceptions. Within the current account, the ECB takes responsi• in one form or another has participated in this committee from the start. bility for investment income statistics because of the rather close link with the financial account. And within the financial account, Eurostat retains a responsibility in "Good coordination and cooperation with Eurostat and the NCBs is vital for us", Eugenio the area of direct investment because it has a particularly close link with the struc• Domingo adds. "It is essential for the success of the ECB, and in some way thot of the ture of industry and the commercial policy aspect. euro and the EU."

"There is also joint responsibility in financial accounts. Eurostat is the custodian of In a wider perspective there is cooperation with international organisations, partic• the ESA 95, part of which is devoted to financial accounts. The ECB is responsible ularly close in the case of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the BIS for the production of quarterly financial accounts for the monetary union area. (Bank of International Settlements). Statistics for the euro M A 3/99

by the fact that the members of tors. But there are some limita­ our working group on statistics tions and needs to be covered had very clear instructions in the future. But lack of fully from the top of their institutions comparable back data is - the governors who formed almost inevitable following the Council of the EMI - to such a structural break, and in make progress and to enable such circumstances the past the EMI to come to conclu­ might, in some respects, be of sions. If we hadn't had that limited value. The euro has support from the top of the meant a big change and so the NCBs and the deadlines, we importance of having back would probably still be talking data exists but is limited for about some aspects of the con­ understanding the new situa­ solidated balance sheets of the tion since the start of Stage monetary financial institu­ Three of EMU." tions." Focus on Hard nuts had to be cracked, for example the deadline for the essentials transmission of data. Peter Bull explains: "We guessed at "We focussed on the essen­ an early stage that monetary tials", says Peter Bull, reflect­ data would be required within ing on the preparation period a month of the end of the and its challenges. "We knew reporting period. But some that some things were extreme­ NCBs were not in the habit of ly important and some were doing that. For quite good rea­ somewhat less so. We also sons: many Member States knew that we wouldn't have had in effect a pegged time to do everything. Our first Pete f Bull (56) worked mainly as an economist in the Bank of exchange rate with the priority was to make sure we deutschmark and therefore did England from 1964. He joined the Financial Statistics Division in 1984 and had key monetary aggregates not conduct their own mone­ headed it from 1987 until he entered the EMI as head of statistics in / 9 94. ready, as they are an impor­ tary policy. They followed the He was appointed Director of Statistics in the ECB in 1998. tant element in policy plan­ Bundesbank and it wasn't so ning. vital for them to have a formal to support monetary policy ", position statistics, financial independent view on domestic Eugenio Domingo admits. accounts for the euro-area (a "Having these data ready by monetary growth. Indeed, "But by mid-autumn it was massive task), securities' issues the start of monetary union domestic monetary growth clear that we would have and redemptions, seasonally- would have been too late might have been beyond their them. The final policy prepara­ adjusted data... Just now we though. What the implementa­ control because of the pegged tions were not held up by lack face difficulties in interpreting tion package correctly foresaw exchange rate and the ease of data. It was possible to state national accounts data as ESA was that there would be a big with which money flowed what we meant by price stabil­ 95 is introduced. Many data drive to finalise the policy across borders. It wasn't a top ity, choose a reference value series in the area of conjunc- preparations in the latter part priority to produce monetary for monetary growth, and tural business statistics need to of 1998, and that our col­ statistics and publish them in a define the measure of money be more comparable and time­ leagues would need to know timely way. For this reason a stock to which it would apply. ly. Government finance statis­ what monetary growth had 15 working-day deadline for By the start of Stage Three the tics at annual frequency are been at least for the previous transmission of data to the ECB range of data available was not good enough to interpret year. So we asked for data on was a serious difficulty in some quite impressive. what is happening in key the closest possible approxi­ Member States." aspects of the public sector. mation to the new basis back "I do not want to sound com­ to September, to be available Some doubts placent. I realise that there "Lack of long runs of back data by September 1998. were and still are many on the same basis as the new "In my early weeks at the ECB, improvements to come - more statistics is, of course, a disad­ "We also attached a lot of I often doubted whether we detailed quarterly monetary vantage - though here I should importance to BoP. We thought would have key statistics of suf­ and balance of payments recall that Eurostat has done its it would not be possible to ficient quality available in time data, international investment best with real economy indica­ have BoP based on extra-mon- M 3 / 9 9 Statistics for the euro

etary union transactions during rates charged by banks on 1998. So we postponed these personal loans, mortgages to January 1999. For 1998 and lending to SMEs. We col­ we arranged to aggregate net lected these data using avail­ balances in each category A new era for Europe able sources at national level. from national statistics. In fact, We know that these data are that did not work very well. not fully satisfactory concern­ The reason was that there are '* ing comparability. At the very large asymmetries within moment the footnote in the the euro-area and this fact was monthly bulletin explaining reflected in the aggregates that the nature of these data is were intended to show net almost as long as the table! transactions with the rest of the We shall have to move to a world but clearly were not better harmonized basis doing so. Finally, we asked before long. Member States as far as they possibly could to construct "We know we have to work extra monetary union balance on data relating to non-mone­ of payments data also for tary financial institutions. The 1998. These we published for data going into the money the first time in April. We are and banking statistics come now publishing monthly BoP from the so-called monetary statistics. financial institutions (MFIs), which is the name we gave to "Some other things we had to the banking sector in ESA leave aside - capital issues 95. There is a very large num­ and redemptions, for example. he first stage of economic and mone­ any competence for carrying out foreign ber of these institutions, some We completed a pilot exercise Ttary union - of which the objective of exchange intervention. 1 1,000. But there is also a that is now going into produc­ the progressive realisation had been con­ large number of financial insti­ The main tasks of the EMI were: tion and we expect to start firmed by the European Council in June tutions that don't meet the def­ publishing those numbers later 1988 - began on 1 July 1990, the date ► to strengthen central bank cooperation inition of monetary financial this year. on which, in principle, all restrictions on and monetary policy coordination, and institutions. These may include the movement of capital between ft to make the necessary preparations mortgage financing institu­ "In financial accounts for the Member States were abolished. required for the establishment of the tions, leasing companies etc monetary union the consolida­ European System of Central Banks specialising in medium- and tion problem arose again. We For the realisation of Stages Two and (ESCB), for the conduct of the single long-term credit and perhaps could not construct financial Three, it was necessary to revise the monetary policy and for the creation financing themselves by issu­ accounts until we obtained Treaty establishing the European of a single currency in this stage. ing bonds or taking loans quarterly detail in the mone­ Economic Community to establish the from banks, but without taking In June 1997 the European Council tary statistics, in BoP and capi­ required institutional structure. deposits or issuing instruments adopted the Stability and Growth Pact tal issues and redemptions fig­ Negotiations resulted in the Treaty on that are close substitutes for aimed at complementing and specifying ures, and also the first results European Union signed in Maastricht on deposits. At the moment, I'm the Treaty provisions with a view to on the financial accounts side 7 February 1992. This Treaty, incorporat­ afraid, we know very little ensuring budgetary discipline in EMU. from implementation of ESA ing the Protocols on the Statute of the about them. European System of Central Banks and 95. So we shall not be able to After the European Council's decision on publish these until later this of the European Monetary Institute, which Member States fulfilled the neces­ "The same is true for many year. came into force on 1 November 1993. sary conditions in May 1998, the EMI collective investment institu­ completed its task and the ECB was tions. Money market funds are The establishment of the EMI on 1 A long agenda established on 1 June 1998. part of the MFI sector, but we January 1994 marked the start of the have limited information second stage of EMU. The EMI's transito­ On 1 January 1999 the third and final "There are some other areas about equity funds, long-term ry existence also mirrored the state of stage of EMU came into force with the where we made short cuts. We bond funds etc, and clearly monetary integration within the irrevocable locking of the exchange rates knew that we would have to need to extend it. Community. The EMI had no responsibili­ of the currencies of the 11 Member have data on retail interest ty for the conduct of monetary policy in States participating and with the conduct rates - rates actually paid by "Seasonal adjustment is one the EU - this remained the preserve of of a single monetary policy under the banks on deposits by individu­ more area we are working on the national authorities - neither hod it responsibility of the ECB. als and companies and also intensively. To start with we Statistics for the M 3/99 8 euro

did not have seasonal adjust­ al data that are currently the "In monetary statistics we have Finding the balance ment of monetary aggregates. only comparable good quality established an homogeneous We do have them now, but statistics, it's extremely difficult MFI sector, from which we "At the minimum, data must we may find that the seasonal to assess the development of obtain good­quality statistics. not mislead policy­makers pattern is rather unstable for the fiscal stance. But there is a We have revisions every month so that they take the wrong some time. This is a reason strong interest from the but they have not so far led us decisions; and they must why the reference value is in Economic and Financial to question the essential quality give a reading on the cur­ terms of growth over a back­ Committee in looking at the robustness of the data. They do rent or, at least, a recent ward­looking 1 2­month peri­ fiscal position in the euro­ describe what is going on. period", Eugenio Domingo od and why we take a three­ area. And there is a strong continues. "Quality and timeli­ month moving average. interest from us, too, because "The ECB decided to define ness are both vital in this with respect to the proper con­ price stability in terms of the respect. "Although there is a large duct of monetary policy we HICP. Eurostat had put great degree of estimation in the need to know exactly how the effort into the HICP, initially "There may be a trade­off earlier numbers, we have in fiscal stance is developing. because of its importance to between quality and timeli­ fact produced and, indeed, the process of assessing con­ ness; data available published monthly estimates "So the Monetary Committee vergence. But that meant it was promptly are of no use if for the three main monetary /EFC report to Ecofin (acces­ by far the best indicator of later they have to be revised aggregates Ml, M2 and M3 sible an http://ue.eu.int/ prices in terms of its compara­ to give a different interpre­ back to 1980, and therefore emu/en/index.htmj laid great bility across the EU and relia­ tation. But, of course, we have a fairly long back stress on quarterly govern­ bility. So the HICP was well must strive to make data series." ment finance statistics", he suited to be the standard more timely. Here, Eurostat continues. "We know that this against which maintenance of and their data suppliers Of course, Peter Bull also is very difficult to achieve. But price stability would be estab­ have made successful efforts has some hopes in the areas Eurostat has done a lot of lished. We were grateful to with the HICP. of statistics for which Eurostat work on it already and is have this good­quality measure is responsible. "There is, for preparing a Commission of prices available and Eurostat "However, although we example, a long way to go in Regulation. publishes it very promptly. stress timeliness, we do not labour market statistics", he consider that monetary poli­ says. However, he does see "That is for the moment a "There have been big cy should respond to every progress in labour cost statis­ rather important gap ­ one improvements in the availabil­ twist and turn in the record­ tics and in the area óf pro­ that will be difficult to fill. ity of other sources of data. ed data. Indeed, in consider­ duction and foreign trade. Clearly that's true for BoP sta­ ing the monetary aggre­ "It's only around a year since "But we did the essentials. tistics. We are now publishing gates, we focus on a three­ Eurostat started publishing And we did provide the basis monthly BoP statistics com­ month moving average euro­indicators and the range for policy­making." piled on an extra­monetary growth rate, compared with has increased enormously union basis. BoP statistics are 12 months earlier, mainly to since then", he recalls. Telling the right story an extremely important area smooth out some volatility in and there is still room for the series. "In national accounts, ESA What makes Peter Bull, who improvement. But, again, we 95 is being implemented. We is obviously aware of the gaps, think they are telling substan­ "Moreover, we have made know that will bring big so çpnvinced that the available tially the right story for the clear that our aim is price improvements in the quality of data form a solid basis for pol­ euro­area as a whole. stability maintained over the statistics. We just face an icy planning? medium term, partly in awkward period in which it "There are gaps and there are recognition of the fact that will be harder to interpret sta­ "The main strength of the pre­ areas where improvements the HICP might be subject to tistics than it has been in the sent statistical system is that it have been achieved. I'm confi­ short­term volatility, which past. meets the essential require­ dent these gaps will be filled." we cannot and, indeed, ments for monetary policy to should not, try to control. We "A very important area that be formulated", he states. In "It's true, a lot of tasks remain", always try to set data in con­ needs further improvement is two areas of key importance ­ Eugenio Domingo con­ text and discern develop­ government finance statistics. monetary statistics and the firms, "but the essentials have ments in them. By its nature, This was a priority for the HICP as the measure of price been covered by Eurostat and monetary policy is forward Economic and Financial stability ­ Peter Bull is con­ by us and we had the neces­ looking, but must rest on a Committee group on statistics vinced of the need to have sary variables to set up a strat­ secure assessment of the pre­ (formerly the Monetary good quality in a timely fash­ egy and formulate monetary sent and recent past. That is Committee group). With annu­ ion at his disposal. policy in a proper way. what really matters." ■ M 3/99 Statistics for the euro

When it comes to the information requirements of EMU, JOHNNY AKERHOLM, Under-Secretary of State in the Finnish Ministry of Finance, knows what he's talking about. As Chairman of the Economic and Financial Committee (EFC) working group on statistics he formulated recommendations to Eurostat and the ECB on how to improve the statistical information system. Sigma's BARBARA JAKOB talked to him during one of his visits to Luxembourg. Rowing THE statistkal boat

// 'tatistics is the foun- with the euro, the 1 1 «^dation of EFC's work Member States participating [see panel on page 10]", in Stage III are tied together explains Akerholm. "It's in a completely new way. quite clear that if such a com­ Although Eurostat, OECD mittee is to follow economic and the UN have worked for developments its work must years on a common statisti­ be based largely on eco­ cal basis, until recently every nomic statistics." country had its own statisti­ cal framework. But as soon Creation of the EFC working as you have a common, sin­ group on the information gle currency you need sound requirements of EMU was in monetary policy for the area line with the initiative of the as a whole, based on reli­ French Finance Minister who able and comparable tools last summer drew attention to follow economic develop­ to the lack of common and ments." comparable statistics within the euro-area. The idea was Key concerns to create a group with the task of identifying new infor­ To this end, the EFC working mation needs for economic policy within the zone. group on statistics formulat­ ed detailed recommenda­ EMU certainly affects the tions for approval by the requirements imposed on the Ecofin Council at the begin­ statistical information sys­ ning of the year, and now tem. "All the countries taking being implemented. Major part in Stage III of EMU now concerns of the group were: find themselves in the same rowing boat", as Johnny I Quick progress needed on Akerholm puts it. "Then, of quarterly national ac• course, you need the same counts: rules, including the need to Before joining the Ministry of Finance in 1996, JohlUiy AkeíhollTI "The most important gap report things in the same worked for the Finnish Central Bank. Here his 20-year experience cov• way. You need to look at now being corrected", ered heading the Bank's policy department, the foreign exchange policy what the 'boat' is doing as a Akerholm explains, "was and finally the economics department. whole and examine the dif­ that not all countries last ferent 'rowers' in a coherent year were able to report Three years with OECD as a staff member in country studies and time way. quarterly on national accounts. And another lack spent on research in the Central Bank were very much governed by sta• "EMU is perhaps not chang­ of information - important tistics - and he has used them a great deal since. "My expertise is on the ing the statistical require­ because of the Stability and demand side", he says, making him an ¡deal candidate for membership ments for economic analysis Growth Pact that gives devel­ of the EFC working group on statistics. as such", he continues, "but opment of the public sector a Statistics for the euro M 3/99 10

significant role - is that very labour at both national provision of data on cross- few countries, if any, have and European level by the border flows within the Economic and good statistics of what is year 2000. A specific euro-area should be con• Financial happening to the public sec­ work programme should sidered in the light of the Committee tor during any one year. It's be defined in 1999 for new circumstances of mon• very difficult to follow what implementation starting in etary union. The EFC's role was defined is going on in the short 2001. in the Maastricht Treaty. term." Hence, the group's Two 'musts' According to Article 114 (ex- recommendation: "In addition to the deficien­ article 109c) it was to be set cies on the public sector and Finally, Johnny Aker• up at the start of the I High priority should be the labour market, the most holm draws attention to Stage III of EMU, replacing given to statistics on public important needs are for two preconditions of key the Monetary Committee. finances. The objective is short-term statistical indica­ importance to the process: According to the Treaty it the production of quarterly tors. There is a Regulation on for proper monitoring of tasks are: national and financial this but several countries accounts data for general have derogations; this economic conditions, data • to deliver opinions at the government. means that in practice it timeliness is an absolute pre­ request of the Council or of might be years before we requisite, as are adequate the Commission, or on its "Another thing that is quite have good short-term statisti­ resources for implementation own initiative for submission surprising", Akerholm cal indicators." An important of the EFC's recommenda­ to those institutions continues, "is that statistics recommendation in the tions. covering the labour market report therefore is: • to keep under review the and cost development are > Publication and dissemi• economic and financial situa• very different from country I The Council Regulation of nation of data should be tion of the Member States to country. In definitions, May 1998 concerning timely at predetermined and of the Community and to coverage, the frequency of short-term business statis• report regularly thereon to release dates at all levels publication and in many tics should be fully imple• the Council and to the (national and European), other respects, they vary a mented by the year 2001 Commission... and the main suppliers lot - and that becomes a for manufacturing, con• should guarantee electron• • ... to contribute to the severe deficiency when you struction and retail trade. ic access and distribution preparation of the work of have an area with a com­ to all users. the Council... and to carry mon currency and monetary Akerholm goes on: out other advisory and policy." "Another factor is that the ► 7b respond to these priori• preparatory tasks assigned to role of internal trade is ties, adequate resources it by the Council ► To permit a better view of changing because of the should be available to labour developments, common currency. From an • to examine, at least once those involved in the col• Member States should economic policy point-of- a year, the situation regard• lection, production and accelerate the implementa• view it is no longer more ing the movement of capital dissemination of data." tion of a continuous interesting to know, say, the and the freedom of pay• Labour Force Survey (LFS) level of trade between ments, as they result from "Particular progress has been providing quarterly results Germany and France than the application of this Treaty made in the last six months", qn employment and unem• that between the German and of measures adopted by Akerholm claims. "One ployment at the latest by Lander. the Council; the examination the year 2000. Sunday morning a few shall cover all measures months ago I was searching Furthermore, the compila• "And we know from the relating to capital movements tion of a European-level experience of introducing for some information on the and payments; the labour cost Index for both Intrastat that statistical infor­ Internet. Either I couldn't find Committee shall report to the EUR-II and EU 15, using mation has suffered. it, or the data I did find on Commission and to the existing data, should be Therefore we should avoid Eurostat's web-site were not Council on the outcome of speeded up as a tempo• making the same mistake 'fresh' enough. Today the sit­ this examination. rary solution for early again. We should rationalise uation is a lot better." In practice, the committee's 1999. But further efforts and try to cover only new major role is preparation for should be directed needs." Hence the recom­ To accomplish its task the EFC decisions by Ministers in the towards the development mendation: was producing this summer a Ecofin Council. of more comprehensive report to Ministers describing and comparable indica• > Concerning the balance of the follow-up to its recommen­ tors and accounts for payments and trade, the dations. VI 3/99 Statistics for the euro 11

business statistics and admin­ The quality of the BoP data State­of­play istrative sources. was still clearly insufficient with obvious inconsistencies within In addition, a Leadership However, most Member and between national and n mid­June 1999 the Group (LEG) was constituted Economic and Financial States would not be able to euro­area balance­of­payments I with several voluntary NSIs Committee working provide all the relevant statis­ statistics and between them preparing the methodology group on statistics made tics before mid­2003. and national accounts. These for the compilation of annual an assessment* of the inconsistencies severely limited Social Accounting Matrices current state­of­play on Labour market the usefulness of the data. euro­statistics. Here is (SAM). how Eurostat and the developments and International harmonization of Furthermore, discussions with NSIs answered the business accountancy guide­ labour cost indices key users took place on the points made: lines, in accordance with need to develop a European A continuous Labour Force worldwide standards for com­ Labour Price Index. Quarterly Survey is actually implement­ piling national accounts would ed in 10 Member States; pre­ be welcome with a view to national accounts liminary studies are being Short­term statistics improving the quality of eco­ undertaken in France and In accordance with Council nomic and financial statistics. Italy (pilot surveys) and in On the basis of current Regulation (EC) No Luxembourg; there is no real progress, it was likely that 2223/96, Member States progress so far in Germany most Member States were on Publication were currently changing over and Austria. As a result, reli­ track to meet the recommen­ to the ESA 95 national Progress had been made in able employment and unem­ dation in terms of manufactur­ accounts system, which reducing the delays of trans­ ployment data for the euro ing, construction and retail included specific requirements mission, timeliness and quality area on a quarterly basis can trade. However, for data on on production of quarterly of major short­term indicators not be compiled; so far, they new orders received by indus­ national accounts. Member as well as in setting up a cal­ are only available on an try some countries would States had provided their first endar of release dates. A first annual basis. probably not be able to deliv­ data complying with the new er such data. Plans to send step had been made with the ESA 95 requirements in the Member States have under­ proxies instead should be publication by Eurostat of spring, with most doing so, as taken to produce quarterly intensified. euro­indicators on the Internet. required, in April. labour cost indices and But further developments were Mony statistical offices were Eurostat published first esti­ needed. Member States with a dero­ still not providing data as gation under the Regulation mates for European totals in promptly as required by the Another positive development (Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg Q4 1998 in April 1999 and Regulation, though progress in enhancing the accessibility and Austria) had agreed not data on Ql 1999 were pub­ had been achieved recently. of statistics was the publica­ to make full use of it. lished in July 1999. It is tion by the ECB of compre­ expected that, over time, data Some progress in further hensive statistics on the euro­ As a consequence, first quar­ will become available with developing qualitative busi­ area in the appendix to its terly national accounts cover­ less delay. ness surveys in the service monthly bulletin. ing the main aggregates for sector had been made. A har­ the euro­area and EU1 5 were More comprehensive monized scheme for covering available with a 70­day delay and comparable the major branches had been Adequate resources after the period concerned. A agreed with Member States. second estimate was pub­ indicators and In those areas, particularly lished after 90­100 days. By labour accounts Balance­of­payments regarding qualitative surveys, mid­2000, 'flash' estimates the labour force survey and Eurostat has agreed so far and trade for the euro­zone and some new orders for industry, where with 10 Member State NSIs a Member States should be With a view to simplifying progress could be considered work programme for the available within 45 days. Intrastat, Eurostat had submit­ insufficient, the lack of ade­ improvement of national ted several proposals to the quate resources devoted to the Statistics account estimates on labour Council. So far, three concrete priorities identified in the rec­ (number of employed per­ on public finances results had been achieved, ommendations had been sons, hours worked, compen­ while one proposal on the advanced by Member States Progress was on track to sation of employees) by mak­ simplified use of the nomen­ as a major explanation. ■ ensure that the first indicators ing full use of the results of the clature was still under discus­ on some key items were avail­ continuous Labour Force sion between the Council and * See reports on: able from the start of 2000. Survey, as well as of relevant the European Parliament. http://ue.eu.int/emu/en/index.htm Statistics for the euro M A 3/99 12

Four years ago Yves-Thibault de Silguy the then European Commissioner in charge of Statisticians economic and monetary union, wrote in Sigma. "I do not think it is an exaggeration THE shadows to say that the design and formulation of effective mech­ anisms for producing both the principal and the secondary indicators required for EMU will be the acid test of the effectiveness of the European Statistical System." A catalyst of this 'acid test' has been the Committee on Monetary, Financial and Balance of Payments Statistics (CMFB), which has played a crucial role in the development of euro-statistics (see panel on next page). Its new Chairman, RAFAEL ALVAREZ, Head of Statistics at the Bank of Spain, gives his view to Sigma's JOHN WRIGHT of where CMFB has been, where it's at and its future...

afael Alvarez says Alvarez may work in the Kidgell endorses. So, when­ Wearing their professional R"statisticians have to shadows but he likes to relax ever possible, it's off with the 'hats', both present and for­ be useful - not famous". with his head in the clouds. suits and on with the hiking mer Chairmen of CMFB are The CMFB Chairman has boots! also passionate about the role He makes the remark when I more in common with his pre­ of CMFB in building and ask if the EU public should be decessor, John Kidgell [see There's more of a contrast maintaining a bridge grateful to statisticians for article on page 25], than sta­ when it comes to their work­ between statisticians who their contribution to the launch tistics. They share a passion ing environments. Kidgell, work for the National of the euro. for walking the hills - Kidgell the national accountant, Statistical Institutes (NSIs) and those from the National He adds: "The most important on the moors of northern inhabits a modern office block Central Banks (NCBs) - a thing for the statistician is not England, Alvarez in the in Pimlico by the River Thames bridge that has been of public gratitude - it is to be of Spanish sierras. in Central London. Alvarez, immense benefit in creating public service. We should be the Central Bank statistician, a successful statistical cli­ happy if the statistics we pro­ Says Alvarez: "One prob­ is based in a stately building mate for monetary union. duce are useful: that's the lem of being so busy nowa­ in Madrid that is so grand most a statistician can expect days is that we are cutting and palatial in the Spanish - being in the shadows but in down severely on 'normal' manner that it almost defies Such close coordination was­ a positive way." life." It's a sentiment I'm sure description. n't always the case... G M 3/99 Statistics for the euro 13

Alvarez remembers his sur­ lem is to talk to each other... institutional users have How does he summarise prise in the early days of to banish prejudice... to for- requested for the follow-up to CMFB's role? CMFB when the first get the stereotype." monetary union." Chairman, Hans Van Wijk "As a forum for the ECB and - "very combative, every 'A real success' What would he like to see the Commission to establish inch the Central Banker" - accomplished at the end of collaboration between statis­ suggested to him, on the his two-year Chairmanship? ticians. CMFB has no comi- / ask him about his priorities occasion of an election to tology powers. It is a bridge as new Chairman of CMFB? the executive board, that he "Quarterly macroeconomic between statisticians from should propose someone statistics! two systems - the ESS repre­ "lo continue the work of my from an NSI - instead of the sented by Eurostat and NSIs, predecessor, John Kidgell obvious choice of a Central "Apart from that, what for on one hand, and the ECB The legal structure for euro- Banker. "That seemed unusu­ me is challenging is the ques­ and Central Banks on the statistics is more or less com­ al then, but was a helpful tion of seeing for the first other. It has been a real suc­ step towards this new cli­ plete, so the priority now is time the integration of bal­ cess, in my opinion, in estab­ mate of cooperation." just to maintain the present ance of payments and lishing a field of shared com­ situation while opening new national accounts, including petence." Now the committee compris­ aspects. Implementation of financial accounts, in a sin­ es about 25 Central Bankers ESA 95 will be a priority gle system - the transaction What, I ask, are the and 20 national statisticians, and a challenge. approach and the balances strengths and weaknesses of Kidgell being the first of the approach. present data supply in the latter to occupy the chair. "Also to promote and contin­ field of euro-statistics and the Eurostat and the Statistics ue to study the question of "This is a novelty that pre­ challenges that lie ahead? Directorate of ECB are also the balance of payments - sents a challenge not only represented. Each Member the problem of asymmetries for the producer but also for "The strengths flow from the State is entitled to two votes: is very important, with con­ the user who has to be famil­ legal basis - establishment one expressed by the NSI, sequences for measuring iar with the conceptual of coordination between the the other by the NCB GDP. Then to keep track of aspects of the statistics. I ESS and the ESCB-wide sta­ the problems that can arise never thought we would see tistical system. One strength Alvarez feels strongly with the excessive deficit the day when we were is consolidation of EDP statis­ about coordination and procedure in the Stability forced to link both approach­ tics and lack of criticism of progress through coopera­ Pact, and to smooth the way es - transaction accounts them when the decision on tion, more so, he admits, for Eurostat to provide all the and balance sheet monetary union membership because he represents a data that the ECB and other accounts." was adopted in 1997. We country with a recent history of isolation from mainstream Europe. Crucial role of CMF He says: "Of course, differ­ ences created by different c the beginning of rhe decade the EC Key objectives of CMFB over the last two years nationalities, cultures and ACouncil was asked, on Eurostat's initiative, have been to: languages count. But they to create the Committee on Monetary, ► ensure the ECB had the statistics necessary to count less every time we Financial and Balance of Payments Statistics operate monetary union from the outset meet. Consider that 10 or (CMFB). Aim was to enhance the cooperation I provide advice to both Eurostat and the ECB 1 5 years ago having a meet­ between NSI and Central Bank statisticians (EMI up to 1998) on issues that rely on macro- ing with colleagues from with a view to implementing statistical economic statistics other countries - especially instruments for the conception, follow-up ► contribute to the development of policy in areas and evaluation of EMU. for a Spaniard - was very where these statistics are used, and exceptional. Now within I provide a forum for cooperation and debate on At first the approach - as far as the definition CMFB we have developed a the many difficult technical issues. league of friendship of com­ of statistical objectives was concerned — was mon understanding, of com­ rather coolly received by some independently- The committee provides key checks and balances mon approach, that stands minded parties. But step-by-step CMFB man­ in the ESS, particularly in the government debt above questions of nationa­ aged to find its place within the official statisti­ and deficit procedure. By being transparent about lity. cal world to become the central mechanism for its procedures and the advice it gives to Eurostat cooperation involving Eurostat, the ECB (and and the ECB it helps to build user and public "The only thing that people up to 1998 its predecessor the European confidence in the statistics used to support the need to do to avoid a prob­ Monetary Institute), NSIs and Central Banks. management of the euro. Statistics for the M 3/99 14 euro

don't talk much about that indicators - and most of the mentation of the first step of now because it has been a current indicators do not ESA 95." success and I hope it will allow proper analysis. It is remain so in the future. That clear that there is a short­ / understand that Central said, there is room for coming in this area - in, for Bankers have their own sta• improvement in this field. example, services, unem­ tistical committee under ECB ployment and employment - auspices. What does this "The new monetary statistics in referring to the right peri­ do? produced by the ECB and od in a timely way. NCBs... the culmination of "Yes, this committee compris­ five years' work to have "The purpose of the es practically the same them ready in time - this is Regulation is to try to meet Central Bankers as repre­ very positive: the ECB hav­ most of these requirements. sented on CMFB, so their ing the tool that it requested But - and this is very normal tasks are complementary to at the very beginning. Also - the community of the user CMFB's work. There is an positive is the quality requests more and more and exclusive field for the ECB achieved by Eurostat. Some more. It is important not to and NCBs: monetary statis­ questions remain open to dis­ postpone the production of tics - a balance sheet of the cussion but both the data these new sets of indicators. monetary creating sector - and their timeliness have If you attended to all the and also information on how improved recently. derogations that some coun­ the foreign exchange is tries have requested it would working. "What", he admits "is not so be impossible to have all the positive is the question of the necessary information be­ "These are the statistics that heterogeneous quality of fore 2001 or 2002. have been developed in this trade and output statistics committee. Maybe 'pure' sta­ and some gaps in services "We especially need more tisticians - those from the statistics. I am not an expert service indicators. The ser­ NSIs familiar with the in this field but my col­ vice sector is a crucial area process of sampling, surveys leagues, the economists, of activity that explains such etc - are surprised when stress the necessity of having a lot about investment, con­ they hear this because it more detailed information. sumption...everything..." seems more like the work of Another deficiency is the an accountant. But these are lack of seasonally-adjusted 'A hectic period' statistics we really need." results - the priority has been in other areas but this Now the euro is launched A big question this: to what is now receiving attention will life be easier for CMFB? extent do you think the suc• from Eurostat and the ECB. cess of the euro depends on Alvarez: "We have been statistics? "Also there are positive and living in a very hectic peri­ negative aspects to od. The community of statisti­ "Heavily. For the first time, Eurostat's provision of aggre­ cians outside the NCBs has mainly because of the gated statistics for the euro- not been fully aware of the Maastricht Treaty, policy­ area. Distribution by the difficulties we have faced. makers - the high-ranking Internet is very positive, but The activity begun last officials that represent coun­ a problem remains in January has had to be sta­ tries in the EFC - seem to improvements that have to bilised and it will take time have been aware of the be made in line with the to obtain an informed view necessity of statistics. request by the Economic and of how things have devel­ Statisticians were aware of Financial Committee (EFC) - oped. NSI statistician have this necessity in the context and that depends on imple­ also been subjected to com­ of monetary union and were mentation of the Regulation pletely new demands in the working on it, but this high- on short-term economic indi­ context of EMU. So I hope profile interest created a spe­ cators. that life will be easier very cial impetus. soon, but not now - perhaps "Analysts need short-term it will be after definition of "Some requirements linked indicators - euro-area-wide the future of BoP and imple­ to EMU have put statistics on 3/99 Statistics for the euro I G M 15

the map but have also creat­ "All this has led to a very He goes on: "Apart from the forget that also the EFC ed problems for the statisti­ hectic period for producing problem of timeliness, I am referred to the fact that pro­ cians because their work can statistics." confident that the request of ducers had to receive the be checked, subjected to the EFC to produce more necessary budget for pro­ tests of quality and the pres­ But surely such a challenge is accurate, homogeneous and ducing this information; so I sure of public opinion and very positive for a statisti­ timely indicators with more am confident that once policymakers. But that deci­ cian? coverage will have an extra­ everyone is completely sions can be made affecting ordinary impact on the com­ aware of the necessity of monetary union and pass a "I like it. munity of producers. Don't euro­statistics they can be legal test on the basis of good statistics... well, that's "Maybe right now we do completely new." have some lack of purpose because we are just in the >'U Φ How do you think statisti­ middle of the storm; but Ä cians have reacted to this maybe, without being com­ challenge ­ to being brought pletely aware of it, we are down from their ivory tower; creating new standards for have they welcomed it? the future. Maybe this ques­ tion of statistics for European Alvarez: "I cannot speak monetary union can be used for others but personally I as a reference for other pos­ believe that at the beginning sible monetary areas ­ as a there was surprise and very good experience for shock. I don't know why... sharing with our colleagues maybe it's a condition of the in other places in Europe and Africa and South profession... but at the very America." beginning we were a bit iso­ lated, and we were being asked to do things in a dif­ A long­term ferent way. future

"In a way, CMFB was an Alvarez continues: "Time­ answer to the requirement to liness remains a problem ­ provide this information and sometimes national indica­ for the first time to establish tors are produced but do not a coordination that had not arrive with the user at the lhe Bonk Ol Spam ­ 'a stately building... so grand and palatial... existed before. This coordi­ right time. The ECB has nation ­ within the Member requested statistics as soon that it almost defies description '. The Bank's history goes back two centuries. States and also Europe­wide as possible and there has The Banco Nacional de San Carlos, the first modern Spanish bank and direct ­ helped us all to do our been a special initiative to forerunner of the current Banco de Espana, was founded in 1782 by Royal best to understand each provide the information on other's techniques. Politi­ the same day as it is pro­ Warrant. Its capital was private but it was established under Royal patronage, duced. As far as I know, the cians especially used to which accounts for its name. The Banco de España finally became known as think that a statistical ECB opinion is that there is such in 1856. In 1874 it was granted a monopoly over issuing banknotes. The requirement had a simple room for improvement and answer. But statisticians Eurostat has created its ini­ provincial banks then had to choose between remaining commercial banks, know it is very difficult to tiative to disseminate the without the power to print banknotes, or joining the Banco de España with the establish a method without information it receives going into the detail and through the Internet, in a status of branches. This was the origin of the branch network that the Banco without, most importantly, very quick way. So that can de hpaña eventually had throughout Spain. In 1887 it had 55 branches, a producing harmonized fig­ solve the problem. number rising later to 70. With the restoration of democracy in the second half ures. It is important to start with a convention in the "The Internet can solve all the of the 1970s, the Banco de España completedits transformation into a Central most harmonized way. The problems", he laughs, Bank with full responsibility for the regulation and supervision of the financial single answer to the ques­ adding perhaps not too seri­ system. The Bank now, of course, has joined the European System of Central tion is rarely possible in sta­ ously, "It can also create tistics. most of the problems!" Banks along with the Central Banks of the other nations participating in EMU. Statistics for the euro M 3/99

developed fully to every­ It is difficult to explain that one's satisfaction." to a young statistician today. Clearly, CMFB has been a success but does he think it "Today the situation is com­ has a long-term future? pletely different. Using a sta­ tistical source or information "I think so. produced for another pur­ pose... having the instrument, "I think that maintaining coor­ the tool, the computer and dination between the two the facility for storing and areas of statistics - those pro­ transmitting in a very quick duced by the NSIs and those and secure way - such from the NCBs - will continue things are showing us the to be a necessity. Of course, I future. And within the con­ cannot anticipate the future ceptual field there will also but implementation of the new be many changes because system of national accounts of the growing complexity of will take a lot of time. financial transactions." x\lV3J"6Z might be a Central Banker now but he began his "Do not forget that every 25 The long haul... professional life with the Spanish NSI in Madrid. He explains: years more or less there is a "I was fortunate because I started work in national accounts, new system of national Alvarez, relaxed and which, in my opinion, prepare your head for looking at a prob­ accounts, so we are in year urbane in the grandeur of his lem in a very integrated way. zero under the new system Central Bank surroundings, and full implementation will "Finally, after 12 yeats in the NSI, I had the opportunity of does not appear under strain be made step-by-step. Also, in moving to the Bank of Spain to contribute to the production of but as the interview draws to the field of balance of pay­ the financial account. This was an extraordinary collaborative a close he drops a hint of the ments there are many compli­ experience that produced a new tool for economic analysis cations. .. burden that the whole euro- derived from the organisation of all the statistical information statistics' exercise has available. I think that at the time the usefulness of that work was imposed... "It will take a long time to inte­ not perceived as such. Now financial accountants are seen as sta­ grate the different cultures of tistical specialists in their own right. "One of my problems is that the producers. Countries have is very difficult for me to put "I believe the link between the statisticians and 'the other side', as very different systems. The well as between statisticians in different fields, is really important final aim of harmonization aside my work. I take it home — and I can assure you that my own life is an example of this! can only be achieved by con­ with me more than I would tinuous contact and the inter­ like. "I have the feeling that what I am doing here is not so different change of ideas among the from what I was doing in the NSI. Maybe it is different in the mosaic of nationalities, lan­ "I think this is tied up with the way we collect information. We are not dependent on surveys guages, methods of work and nature of the work of the sta­ because there is a legal obligation on providers of most of the frameworks. tistician. It seems to me that information we receive to supply it -'»not for statisrics but for other kinds of people are bet­ policy and supervisory reasons. And so, in this particular way, ter prepared to get work out "So I am fully convinced that, we are more fortunate than our NSI colleagues. of their minds once they have while we at CMFB are not at left the office. Maybe it's my So do yon regard yourself as statistician or economist? the beginning, we are almost fault, but working with num­ at the beginning!" "That's obvious — first, a statistician, but also a Central Banker. I bers is so complicated that have been here about 21 years but am still very much a statisti­ they take more and more of Does he envisage any big cian. .. always a statistician — it is ven' difficult to change your your life..." changes during his 'hat'. Chairmanship? "Statisticians might not be seen as being at the centre of many But the new Chairman of the things, but I know that the success of many institutions depends "One change I can imagine CMFB is a man used to the long heavily on a very good statistical basis. Sometimes it is difficult is that stemming from new haul. "Today I am not in the best to get this over to the new generation of statisticians. Sometimes technology. I remember how of form, but when younger I statistics is hard work but, when I put everything in perspective, I prepared tables as a junior used to walk 20-25 kilometres a I am very happy in this profession." statistician - in handwriting. day on the hills." β SIGMA 3 / 9 9 Statistics for the euro

In a letter to an imaginary friend, ALBERTO DE MICHELIS, Eurostat Director responsible for economic statistics and economic and mon­ etary convergence, describes the challenges that the euro has the data produced by the is very technically and scientif­ finance ministries of the ically competent, which gives posed for Eurostat - and the challenges that lie ahead. Member States were not really us a reliable basis for our comparable and did not really deliberations and decisions. conform to the European Secondly, the formal involve­ System of Integrated Economic ment in this decision-making Accounts. Because of this, process of two national statisti­ Eurostat launched an opera­ cal institutions rendered our tion in 1994-95 to harmonize actions and decisions more these statistics, make them credible in the eyes of the am sure that, as a Eurostat 'vet­ despite what some might think, more reliable and certify them. politicians, the financial mar­ Ieran', you have not forgotten now that inflation has fallen In other words, we had to fight kets and national and interna­ the good times you spent here. almost to zero. The president hard to make sure that these tional observers. To you they must seem like the of the Federal Reserve, Mr reference figures were calcu­ But we - and the many other 'good old days' when every­ Greenspan, emphasised in his lated in a standard and consis­ players - have succeeded: the thing was better... But I would speech of 7 November 1997 tent way by every Member euro has arrived, bringing in like to tell you about all the in Frankfurt that "as we move State. This was no easy task, its wake several new projects, major decisions we have been closer to price stability, the and sometimes it was very from the Stability and Growth involved in with the introduction necessity of measuring prices hard work indeed. Next time, Pact and management of EMU of the euro. At Eurostat, too, we accurately has become an I'll tell you the story of France to the excessive deficit proce­ have a role to play! Many deci­ especial challenge. Biases of a Telecom and the gold of the dure for the countries that sions needed to be taken to few tenths in annual inflation rivers Rhine and Tiber. haven't (yet) joined up, the so- develop the single currency, for rates do not matter when infla­ Anyway, eventually we man­ called 'pre-ins'. We shall cer­ example on the harmonization tion is high. They do matter aged to impose our rules, so, tainly not be twiddling our of price indices, the certification when, as now, a debate has when in March 1998 the thumbs! of data used in the excessive emerged over whether our Council decided to go ahead deficit procedure and the core economies are moving with the euro, the data we pro­ So, if I may, I should like to tell role to be given to the towards price deflation". This vided to the Commission and you about the major projects Committee on Monetary, point is all the more important the European Monetary currently being undertaken by Financial and Balance of now that the European Central Institute to prepare their report us and our partners. Payments Statistics (CMFB). And Bank has taken the harmo­ were accepted. For my friend now that the single currency has nized index as a reference by Peter Bull, Head of Statistics at For example, the NSIs are arrived and I have whetted your which to measure price stabili­ the ECB, the fact that these changing the system of eco­ appetite, let me tell you about all ty in the context of monetary data were accepted without nomic accounts. We are mov­ the adventures we have had! policy. argument was nothing short of ing from ESA 79 - which you miraculous! Perhaps it was a knew - to ESA 95. This repre­ miracle, but a well-deserved sents a real sea change, par­ It all began when we took The second decision on the one, I can assure you, thanks ticularly as, for several years three decisions - the first on certification of data used in the to the splendid team that now, work on the quality and harmonising price indexes, a excessive deficit procedure worked tirelessly to improve comparability of national difficult undertaking because, was more difficult to imple­ the quality of the data and accounts has been kept up until 1993, no-one was inter­ ment. Once again, certain mis­ make them acceptable to the (GNP, fourth resource!). We ested in it. The NSIs were givings had to be overcome. decision-makers and public are now getting the first results, adamant: 'Hands off our price But wait a minute - perhaps opinion. and I hope that the users will indices!". But we managed to you don't know what the not blame us too much for hav­ persuade them, and they have excessive deficit procedure is? ing radically changed the sys­ become very cooperative - Well, I'm sure you remember But none of this would have tem. I mention the users thanks to Maastricht, among the figures being bandied been possible without the third because, when you were here, about a year or two ago by the other things, which required decision: putting the CMFB at statistics were just used for media, claiming that "such- that inflation be calculated "on the centre of the process. This analysis, and data were only and-such a country's deficit is a comparable basis". Our unit committee - uniting statisti­ of interest to certain well- over 3%, so it won't be admit­ specialising in prices played cians of central banks and known specialists and econo­ an important role here, and I ted to the single currency, NSIs - was founded in 1991, mists. Nowadays, important would like to congratulate while another country has a well after you left, and, since decisions involving major polit­ them on their professionalism. national debt of more than then, it has been seeking a role ical, economic and financial The existence of such a high- 60%, higher than the rate and legitimacy, which it has interests are taken on the basis quality harmonized price envisaged by the Maastricht now found. This is for two rea­ of our statistics. With ESA 95 index is all the more important, Treaty!" Eurostat realised that sons: first of all, the committee and work on the underground Statistics for the M 3/99 18 euro

economy - we call it 'exhaus- months now, 100 or so eco­ adopt the method used by In this article LUCA tiveness of the GNP', which nomic indicators - what we country B, this growth would ASCOLI of Eurostat unit sounds more distinguished! - call euro-indicators - for the only work out at 2.2%, or, if we wanted to ensure an even euro-zone and the EU have you use country C's method, B4, financial statistics, higher quality standard for the been accessible on the 2.7%. Just imagine the panic! describes a new group national accounts. I think that Eurostat Internet server. We You can see why we are cur­ we are about the achieve this even publish regularly a rently working towards harmo­ established to tackle the goal. New projects for improv­ detailed release calendar nization. But it's no simple mat­ statistical problems cre­ ing the quality of accounts showing the dates on which ter, because each country only ated by introduction of have recently been started: the data are published. I accepts harmonization on con­ FISIM (Financial intermediation should also like to take the dition that its own method is the euro. services indirectly measured) - opportunity to remind you of used. You see, some things you remember? - cash/accru­ need changing. Perhaps I am the address of our website, in ollowing the EU decision to al, balance of payments asym­ exaggerating a little, but not case you would like to consult Fcreate a common currency, metries... All these decisions, that much. However, I am still our data: http://europa.eu. it soon became clear that time which we have just taken, will optimistic that, with a little time, ¡nt/en/comm/eurostat/ser- also needed to be spent - in have an impact on the eco­ we'll succeed. ven/part3/euroind/eurl l.htm order to avoid unpleasant last- nomic accounts - not measur­ minute surprises - on the main able yet, but not negligible We also have several other But enough about projects and implications for the change at either. I wish my successor all important projects on the go - technical details. I would just economic, legislative and, last the luck in the world when, in I'll just tell you about two of like to tell you a little story but not least, statistical levels. three or four years' time, he them, and then I promise to before I close, something that For this reason, an inter-ser­ has to explain these changes sign off! few people know. It concerns vice group on the change was to the users. But, as you know, the euro. If someone were to created by the Commission this is the price to be paid for The project to monitor public ask how many countries have high-quality statistics. finance trends over the short adopted the euro, you would services, and a report on the term is difficult, both conceptu­ reply „1 1 ", like everyone else. impact on Community poli­ What do I mean by high-quali­ ally (consistency between And you would be right. cies, institutions and legisla­ ty statistics? Reliability and state budget and national However, around the world, tion, including a contribution comparability, but also rapid accounts) and at the level of especially in Africa, many by Eurostat, prepared by the access to information. On this sources. Ministries often have countries' currencies are linked Commission services for the point, management of the euro a schizophrenic attitude - as via a fixed exchange rate to the information of the European calls for such criteria to be users, they need the indicators French franc, and therefore Parliament. scrupulously respected. Our but, on the other hand, it is indirectly to the euro. In West Individual Commission Direc­ friends at the ECB - with whom always very difficult to per­ Africa, eight countries have cre­ torates-General also decided to we have very good working suade them to provide the ated a monetary union begin serious reflection on con­ relations - can be demanding. national statisticians with the (UEMOA) and have started sequences of the change that And rightly so. We believe basic data to calculate them talking about convergence cri­ teria. Eurostat has been asked might affect their responsibilities. we're doing fairly well, even if (confidentiality of tax informa­ to help them build a reliable For example, DG II prepared a some countries are starting to tion, social contributions etc). I and comparable statistical sys­ report on The introduction of the tire of our ever-more demand­ hope that we shall see some tem to manage and measure euro and the rounding of cur• ing requests, which are some­ useful results in 2000. rency amounts, while Eurostat times difficult to meet because their convergence. The European model is spreading! prepared one on Use of the of increasingly tight budgets. The other project relates to cal• ECU and the euro in statistics. From now on, statistics for the culating GDP volume. Believe economic analysis of the euro- it or not, we made some A closing thought: Jean Monnet, Some NSIs played their part. zone will be the priority. The enquiries and discovered that the founding father of Europe, Italy's Istat produced Some series exist in some countries the national methods used for once said "European integration reflections on the conse• but not in others, and we can­ calculating GDP by volume requires time: time to persuade, quences of the introduction of not make calculations for the were not homogenous enough, time to change people's minds and to adjust to major the euro on official statistics. whole of the euro-zone while which meant that the results changes". I love this quotation, This tried to analyse the euro's we lack important statistical were not comparable. because it is so relevant to our effects on production, quality information. So we badger the Obviously this can have an work as statisticians for Eurostat. and dissemination of statistics, NSIs, and often manage to impact on both economic On that note, I shall leave you, as well the possibility of win them round. But they need analysis and decisions relating until we meet again... analysing resulting time- more funding! to the Stability Pact. Just imag­ ine the scenario where GDP series. The Dutch NSI and Talking of economic statistics, I growth of country A is said to France's INSEE were also forgot to tell you that, for a few be 2.5%, but where, if you Atøtx* quite active. M 3/99 Statistics for the euro

tion of time-series at macro level, data quality and strate­ Enter the gy in the transitional period. The document was judged extremely interesting by other Member States - a very useful starting point for serious reflection at national level.

A key outcome of the meeting, was the decision to launch a web-site for the euro-coordina­ tors' group on CIRCA (Com­ munication and Information Resource Centre Administra­ tor). This is a WWW-based environment offering common virtual space for work groups. The task was given to Eurostat. The choice of CIRCA was due mainly to the pecu­ liar nature of the euro expert group, comprising people fac­ ing similar problems of coor­ dinating euro activities with a statistical component, with very limited time and funding for meetings. Much preparation was also ings, to organise a meeting worried about strategy during undertaken by the Euro LEG and create an informal group the transitional period - up to This web-site, with access restricted to members (leadership group), a voluntary that could be consulted and 31 December 2001 - and (although any justified request group of five Member States - take the initiative in advising wanted to compare their ideas for membership from outside Finland, France, Germany, the on how to solve many of the with other countries. will be accepted) includes Netherlands and Spain. This statistical problems linked to Even more remarkably, all much potentially useful infor­ met three times and discussed the euro's introduction. four Member States that mation for euro-coordinators... what each NSI and Eurostat decided against or could not were supposed to do in prepa­ These 'euro-coordinators' first join the euro-zone, at least in I Member State contributions ration for the euro. A newslet­ met in Luxembourg on 10 the first phase, participated. on national issues (articles, ter was published in January March 1999. Luckily it The meeting generally was reports, surveys etc) 1998. A report was also pre­ became apparent that they judged very useful, precisely > an inventory of problems, pared for approval by the SPC didn't have to start planning for the reason, among others, and (Statistical Programme Commit­ from scratch as some prepara­ that many Member States felt > official Commission docu­ tee). Once the report was tion had already been accom­ they had not been aware of ments. approved, the Euro LEG was plished by the Euro LEG. how their neighbours were wound up. The report dealt addressing the main statistical Any interesting article on statis­ only with a limited number of Web-site launched problems created by the tical aspects of the euro's intro­ issues. New questions and euro's introduction; and that duction or suggestion on how a doubts by some Member Although this was intended as the risk of 'reinventing the Member State should deal with States arose after its submis- an informal meeting with par­ wheel' was quite high. a particular problem - informa­ ticipants attending at their own tion potentially important for expense, the response was For example, Istat produced a other Member States - is trans­ For this reason, the need to much better than originally report on the effect of the euro mitted to Eurostat and included exchange views and continue thought. Eleven Member States, on business and household as soon as possible on CIRCA. to monitor the situation was felt one EFTA country and two can­ surveys. In this, problems of acutely by Member States at didate countries took part. This redefinition of size limits and Eurostat's key role is coordinat­ the end of 1998. So Eurostat bears witness to the fact that threshold values were ing activities, centralising and decided, after taking sound­ most Member States were quite addressed, as well as calcula­ disseminating information and Statistics for the euro M 3/99

acting as a focal point. It is also statistical series in euro dur­ advice about rounding rules of the euro on statistics. To this establishing on CIRCA an ing the transition and later in tables before and after cur­ end, as a first step, all Eurostat inventory of existing problems will convert their national rency exchange. Directorates were asked to pro­ linked to the euro's introduction. series into euro for national vide details of size-bands and This will allow problems to be publications backwards in > Historical series: Many coun­ thresholds expressed in statisti­ given priority and possible solu­ time through the fixed con­ tries have expressed concern cal legislation in ECU or euro. tions to be highlighted. Account version rate. In doing this, a about the need for common will be taken of what some misunderstanding might arise rules on deciding how to It was also decided to investi­ Member States have already between series in euro and handle historical series for gate the possibility of develop­ accomplished. If need be, extra the original Eurostat series for international comparison. ing, at EU level, standardised resources will be devoted to def­ the same indicators. To avoid On this point, Eurostat's rec­ size-bands and thresholds for inition and solution of problems. this, Eurostat has suggested ommendation should be fol­ data expressed in euro. This and widely publicised a lowed by all countries. would be an important step in a labelling convention. (This system in which each Member Key problems I Other problems: These cover note was published in Sigma State is free to choose the best conversion of databases, But what are the main problems 2/99.) way of devising a survey while publication policy in the tran­ identified? Many countries obtaining comparable results. sitional period 1999-2002, seemed worried or uncertain During the meeting and since, conversion of computer sys­ It was felt that, in any case, about what to do in the transi­ as far as practical problems are tems, timeliness of the output each Member State adopting tional phase. Precisely for this concerned, Member States that could be delayed by the euro would have to review reason, Eurostat sent countries a have focused mainly on the fol­ introduction of the euro, and the size-classes and thresholds questionnaire on the euro publi­ lowing: questionnaires during transi­ used. So there is a unique cation plan for transition. > Size classes: At present, tion (with the possibility of opportunity to improve statisti­ Information obtained was as fol­ these are expressed in completing them in either cur­ cal harmonization by agreeing lows: national currency. As they rency). on common size-bands and ► As far as statistical series in have been designed for sig­ thresholds, which will allow bet­ national publications are nificance, straight conversion Further steps ter comparison of statistics and concerned, most countries into euro would ignore the reduce potential disclosure will publish data both in euro qualities of such classes - if Some countries have also problems. expressed in euro, the pre­ expressed concern - in relation and national currency. More For this reason, the chairs of all senting of round figures to introducing data in euro - precisely, data in the transi­ existing working groups on sta­ would become 'awkward'. about cooperation between dif­ tional period will be pub­ tistics coordinated by Eurostat So clearly all countries will ferent state authorities with a lished first in national curren­ will be contacted. After all, if all have to design new classes statutory duty is to provide sta­ cy and only switched to euro such groups now have to take a in euro. This provides an tistics. To solve this, some coun­ gradually alongside data in 'total quality component' into excellent opportunity for tries - for instance, Statistics national currency. The account, why not a 'euro com­ cooperation in harmonizing Finland - have launched an impression is that for many ponent' also? countries the bulk of publica­ classes all over Europe. Internet euro-site consisting of tions will remain in national Eurostat aims to draw the various euro change-over Another key task will be collec­ currency until late 2001. attention of its working guides, recommendations, inter­ tion of specialised articles and However, a small but increas­ groups to this point and esting links etc. working papers on the subject. ing amount of data will also qgree on uniform size classes All documents will be stored on be published in euro. The first in statistics for all Member Some problems highlighted by the euro-coordinators' web-site. data published in euro will States. The same could be the four non-euro Member This will allow compilation of an be those dealing with finan­ said of threshold values. States were different. These index of all the most important cial accounts, national involved, among others, recal­ documents dealing with the accounts and external trade. ï Rounding of amounts in culation of transactions in euro impact of the euro on statistics. Most countries were not able tables: This problem is partic­ to national currency, consisten­ to provide a precise date for ularly relevant during the cy between flows and balances In addition, all information EU- the switch, although some transition when tables in after recalculation, and recalcu­ wide that could be of interest to stated it would take place national currency and euro lation for enterprises with their people and institutions con­ gradually during the transi­ could be presented next to accounts in euro. cerned by the introduction of tional period. each other. The rules for the euro - for instance, semi­ rounding might help the pub­ Another important activity of the nars on the subject and a sched­ > One serious problem is con­ lic to understand the differ­ euro-coordinators' group will ule of key international events - version of historical data. ence between these tables. be collection of all legal acts rel­ will be published on the web­ Most countries will publish So there is need for clear evant for assessing the impact site. ■ M 3 / 9 9 Statistics for the euro 21

JOHN WRIGHT went to Paris to talk to JACQUES PÉCHA in his capacity as Head of the Balance of Payments Division in the Foreign Department of the Bank of France - in charge of statistics and research. Until recently he was CMFB's Vice-Chairman. All roads lead to CMFB!

ne remarkable fea• Pécha is probably too tactful Oture about talking to to say whether he was one of those involved in the sta• those initial disbelievers in the tistical build-up to EMU is CMFB concept; he's certainly their unanimity about the committed to the idea now - a success of CMFB - a view member for six years, on the too widespread and obvi• executive body since '95, ously genuine to be just until recently Vice-Chairman. another case of mutual He's also on ECB's statistical back-slapping. committee.

Jacques Pécha is yet anoth­ 'We do criticise' er example...

But down to business... I ask He says: ''It's very important how the Bank of France uses to pay homage to Yves euro-statistics. Franchet [Director-General of Eurostat] for the idea of creat­ "We use Eurostat and ECB ing CMFB. I well remember aggregated data to monitor Franchet's first visit to the Bank France's situation with that of of France in 1992 when the the EU and EMU in general Bank didn't fully agree with and the USA and Japan. Our his proposal. Governor is very interested in our comments on these statis­ "But this was just at the begin­ tics." ning. Now we consider it suc­ cessful because of the perfect solidarity between NSIs and He says: "We're especially NCBs at European level. In interested in HICP sectoral each country in the past these breakdowns for all EU coun­ two bodies had many difficul­ tries; short-term economic ties with each other. But indicators; employment and CMFB has allowed us to open policy of Mr Franchet. dispose you to suspect a unemployment data; and key organise statistics for EMU This cooperation was not evi­ degree of insularity. After all, national accounts indicators, without political interference, dent at the beginning, nei­ he's worked at the Bank of and other statistics available in order to share competence ther was the proposal that France for 35 years - man on a weekly periodicity in a between Eurostat and ECB the CMFB President be a and boy, so to speak. And simple user-friendly guide to concerning national financial national statistician [John he's a person who regards euro-statistics, Principaux indi• accounts, balance of pay­ Kidgell - see article on page his current sojourn in an 'out­ cateurs économiques et ments (BoP), international 25] - Central Bankers were post' of the Bank of France in financiers, a model of clarity investment position... And to a bit reluctant. a modern office block in the produced for the Bank's top achieve all this without major rue de Rivoli, behind the management. difficulties through discussion "Cooperation was a victory Louvre, as 'exile' from the and agreements in many, obtained by the CMFB ." historical grandeur of the "Within the ECB statistical many meetings... main building just round the committee we do criticise — for This is yet another ringing corner; in other words, he's example, the data qualify of "It's been a very efficient endorsement for CMFB from the epitome of the Central euro-area statistics. The Bank process, thanks to the very a man whose CV might pre­ Banker. has presented a paper saying Statistics for the euro M A 3/99 22

we have problems with Eurostat indicators, not due to Eurostat but to NSIs. For instance, we disagree with their sending figures to Eurostat and not to ECB at the lhe grandeur of the same time. There's an unac­ Bank of France. The ceptable delay of one to three Bank was estab­ days ­ probably for technical lished in 1800 and reason. nationalised "We also have problems with between 1936 and aggregation ­ of GDP, prices, 1945. In 1993 a rates of exchange... It's very landmark reform difficult to find the best solu­ established[¡ts inde­ tion for this, but we consider pendence­and in that Eurostat has made much 199.8, of course, it progress in the past year." entered the How about relationships ­ m with INSEE (the French NSI], Central Banks Eurostat, the ECB...has the euro's introduction changed "However, as users, we would "This is not the case for I existence of asymmetries - in any of these? appreciate a breakdown of Eurostat, of course ­ it publish­ BoP, for example, and, most the HICP and more short­term es and the NCBs and NSIs notably, in international "I don't think EMU has general economic indicators, receive the figures simultane­ trade changed our relationship with such as industrial production, ously. INSEE, already excellent. consumer confidence, unem­ I definition of monetary "But" ­ and for me this is an ployment, national accounts..." financial instruments (MFIs), "In France we divide very interesting insight ­ "our pre­ an example being mutual strictly statistics produced by release receipt of ECB data is, And relations with the ECB? funds the Bank of France and those for the moment, due to one rea­ from INSEE: BoP, national son: the translation. This oblig­ "Again, perfect, of course!" I the need sometimes to adjust financial accounts, monetary es NCBs to receive ECB data he laughs. "But, in general, to the lower quality of statis­ statistics on one side, prices prior to publication." France does have a strong tics compiled in other coun­ on the other." position on the principle of So, while Pécha stresses that tries, and subsidiarity. It is clear that we there is no tension in the field of And your relationship with are not in favour of full cen­ statistics, "because the statistics ) shorter deadlines - for Eurostat? tralisation. It's important for us committee is open to Eurostat, instance, those required by to keep control of many things the IMF, OECD, BIS, this is not ECB for monetary and BoP "Of course, also perfect! No at national level. This is the the case with other committees, statistics. problem ­ because we con­ French position! which are restricted to NCBs. sider Eurostat totally responsi­ ■v ble for many questions, Cooperation is total in statis­ "On the other hand, life may including BoP; in the past, for 'We must converge' tics." be easier because... instance, money stock, today / ask if life is easier, statistically national accounts... "But we have no problems I we have better knowledge speaking, since the advent of concerning statistics. For sta­ of the methodological con­ the euro? "But, of course, EMU has tistics it's clear: collection of tent of other countries' indi­ extended the cooperation ­ figures is at national level, "Both easier and more difficult! cators; previously we used notably with the creation of methodology is normally inter­ More difficult because of... them as they were the CMFB... national or European. We must converge...there is a con­ ► lack of statistical series over I the will for convergence is "The statisticians working at sensus, of course. It's clear a long period now guaranteed, embodied Eurostat are very profession­ that first publication of figures by creation of CMFB, and al. The combination of nation­ is in ECB's hands...but they are k different methodological alities is perfect. We have no made available to us three or content of some indicators... ) politicians are once more problems with Eurostat..." four hours beforehand. prices, for instance showing interest in statistics. M 3/99 Statistics for the euro 23

French initiative "For example, the French "The main difficulty in compil­ euro-statistics and their con• Government had been deeply ing back data is due to the tribution to the formulation of worried by the magnitude of choice of the correct method monetary policy for the euro- / ask if it's the case that a trade asymmetries within the of aggregation: the weight zone? French initiative was very EU. CMFB paid considerable of different national data in much involved in the develop• attention to these problems euro-indicators such as GDP, "Well, it seems clear that ment of euro-statistics. and created an ad hoc task the problem of the exchange many national data are defi­ Pécha: "It was very impor­ force to deal with this central rate, the choice between cient, and this is a problem. tant to the French Government question." value or volume indicators... For instance, we know that that Eurostat took charge of trade data are not satisfacto­ all statistics on the euro-area. Urgent need "Some statisticians and ry, and if this is the case The French authorities wanted economists stress this point probably national accounts are also unsatisfactory. to prevent ECB from having / press Pécha to say more about aggregation but have the monopoly of euro-indica­ about the concern that's been different approaches; others "If this is so, then the cre­ tors simply because it's a first expressed about the quality of - the majority - too often ation of monetary union has user. short-term statistics provided ignore the problem. meant we must check and by Eurostat... "So it's crucial to maintain an "In our experience the prob­ modify national data - but it equilibrium between ECB and is a serious matter to change "It's clear that if Eurostat can't lems encountered with short- governments and for govern­ national data. We have a provide enough information term statistics are not related ments to discuss statistics, CMFB group considering about economic indicators to quality or timeliness defi­ because it's governments that asymmetries that includes this is very dangerous. In such ciencies at Eurostat level, but finance the NSIs. It's very national accountants, BoP conditions ECB will conduct rather to the complexity of important that politicians and compilers etc working monetary policy only in accor­ the transmission process others realise the significance together, because it's clear dance with money stock. So if from Eurostat to end-users of of statistics and don't cut NSI now that national accounts you don't want monetary poli­ data. Of course, the compi­ resources, as sometimes is the have to deal with important cy to be monetarist it's very lation of aggregate statistics case. asymmetries. important to make sure ECB is necessarily slow because "And so the French proposed receives the appropriate infor­ their calculation requires the "But, of course, it's difficult the creation of an ad hoc sta­ mation. Conducting monetary availability of a sufficient for people to accept that due tistical task force of the policy only on the basis of proportion of national to the process of EMU all Economic and Financial monetary data is not good. data." national data are far from Council. This was a good It's essential indeed to have perfect. And it's a challenge decision for Eurostat, for gov­ good information about unem­ So just how would he assess for statisticians to maintain ernments, for NSIs... ployment and so on. the current state-of-play on credibility in such circum­ stances.

Voltaire not the samel "But", he goes on, "having said that, the current situa­ I ask Pécha for his view of Queen on the currency. "At its launch many thought tion can be considered French people's reaction to the Volt ; diffei the euro too strong; they now rather positively, taking into euro. think it's too weak. But at the account the lack of harmo­ "In the past we did have prob­ onset it was preferable for nization observed in this "From an economic point-of- lems — slight - with the Europe, given the economic field some years ago. view, the change from francs change of ECU to euro. Some context, to have a strong cur­ However, even more harmo­ to the euro does not pose French people regret the deci­ rency that was not too strong. nization is needed now since serious problems - it is sion to locate the ECB in Maybe a parity at 1.05 is too these statistics are linked to accepted in France. Why? For Frankfurt. But it's more weak, and at 1.10 it would be the core of monetary policy. 12 to 15 years we have con­ important for others to have a too strong. For example... ducted a monetary policy President who is French. A similar to Germany... so it is usual French position!" "Yes, the exchange rate is k Monetary aggregates and not new. important but not too impor­ their counterparts and the I also ask him about worries tant now. The newspapers talk monthly BoP have required "From a technical viewpoint about the current weakness of too much about it. The rate of a huge harmonization French people have no prob­ the euro on the foreign exchange changes — that's nor­ effort over the last five lem, as the British might, exchange markets (it is May mal, and, for me, it's not a years. with losing the head of a 1999). major problem." Statistics for the euro M 3/99

Price Index (a former con­ future is uncertain because Finally, I ask Pécha for his vergence criterion) and a it's now clear that the credi­ favourite anecdote of the panel including lots of bility of euro-indicators does statistical trials and tribula• other useful indicators is not match that of national tions leading up to the published by Eurostat in data. In such circumstances launch of the euro. No sur• cooperation with NSIs." statisticians' future credibility prise that it's yet another is at risk." compliment to CMFB... Statisticians' reputation 7b sum up, what are the key "In the follow-up of challenges? enhanced? Eurostat's France Telecom "For me, the BoP. Why? decision we created a new So, Mr Pécha, in your view Because the most important and very efficient procedure have Europe's statisticians aspect of relations between for CMFB for the assessment The Bank's special euro-statistics brief• emerged from this whole Japan, America and Europe is of convergence indicators. ing document, a model of clarity process with their reputation enhanced, as other have the management of the It's clear now that thanks to suggested to me? exchange rate which is close­ this procedure we managed I Statistics on interest rates ly linked to the situation of our way through during the and the activity of financial "For the moment it's clear BoPs. So the problem of BoP difficult period that fol­ markets are only partly asymmetries is a real chal­ that statisticians have kept a lowed. harmonized. There are still good reputation because the lenge. numerous differences results of the Maastricht indi­ "What resulted from France among European countries cators are well accepted by "The second difficulty is prob­ Telecom was a boost for the as regards financial instru­ governments and the people. ably unemployment. It's diffi­ credibility of the statisti­ ments and structures - for This is a big achievement cult to accept that Portugal instance, housing credit is that was not evident at the has 5%, Spain 20%, cians." distributed by many differ­ beginning. Germany 10%, France 12%... ent channels, so debt Obviously, it is not the same Truly, all roads on the terms can't be compared "Statisticians have benefited indicator - for the Iberian statistical map of EMU easily. from this credibility. But the Peninsula that is clear." lead to CMFB! ■ k Financial accounts - which are part of national How Principaux indicateurs économiques et financiers presents the accounts but used for the position of the EU, euro-zone and France in the world economy conduct of monetary poli­ cy in some countries, such Union as France - will be avail­ européenne Zone euro 16% able in a harmonized way 20% from spring 2000, further to implementation of ESA 95. ECB will have to com­ pile aggregated figures for the euro-zone, which will take some time. Reste Reste du monde du monde ► As for non-financial indi­ cators, progress will France 22% depend mainly on imple­ mentation of European System of Accounts, ESA 95 and EC Regulations on short-term indicators in the next few years. But, of Zone euro course, reliable figures are Reste already available for the du monde Harmonized Consumer M 3 / 9 9 Statistics for the euro

JOHN KIDGELL is well placed to comment on euro statistics. Not only is he the UK Office A near miracle for National Statistics' most 1 senior national accountant, he was until end-March 1999 for statistics Chairman of CMFB - the first

non-Central Banker to hold ticians getting to grips with the also as a national provider - is Ås European Union problem and taking the steam that Central Bankers have put the post. His leadership of this becomes closer, the out of things by setting up a a lot of effort into producing key committee coincided with system that was transparent money and banking statistics, need for harmo­ a critical stage in statistical and avoided any criticism. and it's been a great success; nized statistics becomes preparations for EMU. Perhaps but that they have turned to ever more apparent. I'm "We at CMFB saw it as a Eurostat to provide the other very much in favour of there was a certain irony in reigning in of any potential statistics. And, of course, producing consistent fig­ having a non-euro-zone hand political abuse of these impor­ Eurostat then turns to the NSIs. tant statistics." ures. Indeed, why stop at at the tiller during this period, "On national accounts it's the European bound­ but it's widely recognised that been a major success story, aries? If we could all too. Quarterly data are avail­ KIDGELL's contribution to the I believe that all produce statistics of a able - if not now from all coun­ process was immense. Sigmas institutions can similar nature across the tries, they certainly will be with­ JOHN WRIGHT went to London work together given the in months. There's the switch to world it would make to ask him, wearing both his right people and the ESA 95, which is happening international compar­ at this very moment in most national and European 'hats', right will. But if people isons much easier." countries. Some have done it stick too rigidly to institu­ about the current state and in advance. The Danes were tional positions there's a Kidgell continues: "The future direction of statistics for the first, then the British. Now area in which there's proba­ danger of getting caught a lot of countries are publish­ monetary union. bly been most difficulty is up in unnecessary wran­ ing their first figures on this short-term indicators. Here gles. CMFB has done a lot basis. there's not been much work ask Kidgell if he has any to overcome such prob­ on harmonization. I have to favourite anecdotes about I lems." Short-term difficulty say the ECB has been press­ the trials and tribulations of ing hard for provision of shaping statistics for the launch "Balance of payments (BoP) / asic him to take me on a tour these data, even if unharmo- of the euro. statistics are also produced of some of the key areas that nized: orders data, inten­ largely by Central Banks, have occupied his thoughts, tions data etc. "In the context of the although, unusually, in the case both nationally and as CMFB's Maastricht Treaty process there of the UK they come from the leader, over the last few years. were many concerns about the NSI - us. "I don't think NSIs have quality of statistics for the con­ "We can look at data to run responded very well. The vergence criteria", he recalls. the single currency in several "All these statistics that have process has been much "But, at the end of the day, blocks. The first is money and been produced for a long time improved over the last few there was no doubt that they banking statistics. These are are of quite high quality and months but it should have went through like a dose of part and parcel of what's the harmonization process has been done earlier. salts. There wasn't a single crit­ required by a Central Bank to been going on for years. The icism of the statistics. look at money supply and IMF Manual produced in "Then public sector statis­ developments in the banking 1993, the fifth edition, has tics...here there's a need for "An ECB official said to me sector or MFIs, as they're made us work very hard to much-improved data on pub­ that it had been 'a near mira­ called - monetary financial harmonize BoP figures. lic sector finances. Not many cle' that 1 8 months earlier had­ institutions. Indeed, they're closely linked countries produce these quar­ n't seemed possible. to the ESA 95 process. terly, which is clearly needed "My experience of working for both economic and mone­ "But", he continues, "it wasn't closely with the ECB - particu­ "So", he says, "a lot of harmo­ tary policymaking. There's divine intervention - just statis- larly as CMFB Chairman but nization all round." been a lot of pressure from Statistics for the M A 3/99 26 euro

what used to be the Monetary tistics. A lot of the statistics How, I ask, do such asymme­ 'Statisticians' duty' Committee and is now the that are being asked for on a tries impact on the euro? Economic and Financial quarterly basis we're push­ You do seem quite exercised Committee for us to improve ing hard to get on a regular Kidgell: "Well, in one sense, about this. Why is it important the frequency and, I guess, monthly basis ­ and we're they shouldn't because this is for management of the euro? also the quality of public sec­ nearly there. intra, except for the four coun­ tor statistics. tries outside the euro­zone Kidgell: "Well, the asymme­ "Trade statistics are another where, of course, trade tries might be small. They "I would add (in parenthesis, area of awkwardness: the between them and the 1 1 is col­ might not be. We don't really of course) that the UK is actu­ asymmetries within Intrastat lected on the Intrastat basis ­ so understand them fully, and a ally quite ahead of the game worry policy­makers; worry there are doubts about that. group is looking at that. But, I on public sector finance sta­ statisticians, too." think, like any country the euro­ "Your question does lead me to zone wants to know its BoP, its another development that, I GDP, its price changes, and so think, is emerging and that we on. It wants a whole set of indi­ haven't spent much time on: ■ HI» 111 I — cators, and wants them to be how, given all the asymme­ consistent. NATIONAL tries, do you put together a sin­ gle set of accounts for either STATISTICS "So I think it's the statisticians' EUR­11 or the EU 15. We've duty to provide for the whole started addressing this in area ­1 1 and 15 ­ and say: CMFB. You know the sort of 'This is the set of consistent problems we have in this or data you should use for mak­ any country to arrive at a set of ing policy assessments, coherent statistics ­ national whether monetary or econom­ accounts, BoP, financial accounts... You know at first the numbers simply don't add up / ask him how successful was and you have to put them into the exercise to put all these sta­ a system and, through a tistics together in time for the process of data confrontation, launch of the euro ­ an exer­ John Kidgell's appointment as CMFB's first non­Central come up with what statisticians cise in which, wearing his Bank Chairman, which he relinquished in March 1999, believe to be the best set of CMFB 'hat', he played a piv­ accounts. was seen as very important for the national statistical insti­ otal role? tutes. He is also a Founder member of the IMF Balance of

Payments Statistical Committee. "There's a growing realisation "There's no doubt the work on now that we need to do that money and banking statistics Kidgell is an economics graduate of Scodand's St Andrew's Europe­wide. At present the was highly successful. It was University and has a master's degree in statistics from the ECB defines the BoP of the 1 1 very well planned by the ECB. London School of Economic. His first job was in econom­ by measuring extra­MU trans­ You can understand why: it ic forecasting with the National Institute of Economic and actions, ignoring any intra. was right at the heart of the Social Research inon London. He later did statistical work Now that's fine as far as it process and when the EMI was for Gallup Poll. goes. Eurostat defines GDP for set up that clearly had to be its the 11 or 15 as the sum of the objective. The ESA project ­ In 1972 he joined the UK Government Statistical Service GDPs of Member States, which although not designed for mon­ and has served in the Treasury, the Department of the includes the asymmetries from etary union ­ coincidentally Intrastat. If you look at exports Environment and the Property Services Agency as well as has produced data just around in GDP you'll find a difference the Central Statistical Office, now the Office for National the right time. Some might from the exports that are in the Statistics, of which he is one of the most senior members argue that it should have been ECB's BoP figures. a year earlier so it could feed of staflF— Director of Macro­Economic Statistics. into the beginning of the "The Americans have coherent process but I think that would Away from his day­to­day concerns, one of Kidgell's pas­ accounts for the dollar area; be nit­picking. sions is hill­walking — a passion shared with his successor the Japanese have them for the as CMFB Chairman, Rafael Alvarez, albeit indulged in the yen area. We need that sort of "The work on short­term indi­ Yorkshire Dales rather dian Spanish sierras [see article on thing for the euro area. That's cators has not been as suc­ Ρ12}. the challenge." cessful as it should have been. S ι G M A 3 / 9 9 Statistics for the euro

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Τ •'•AJ1Í ■f· moi

But Eurostat has made a major Europe for labour market poli­ "I hope very little. We're as I've said, we're ahead of effort in the last six months and cies to play a bigger part than doing a lot statistically to the game." they're really very much better hitherto." prepare for the UK joining now. monetary union. And our On a more general note, Many voice concern about the systems are already pretty Kidgell adds: "I think the ECB timeliness of data, now even "Public sector statistics are a euro­friendly. statistical team led by Peter Bull long­term issue. Trade statistics, more critical in the context of have worked extremely hard monetary union. Kidgell is no and effectively to get data to and Intrastat in particular, are "There's one clear exception exception... "We have to make their policy­makers ­ an excel­ also a long­term issue, not and that's we don't produce sure we get the data from NSIs lent effort supported by the resolvable quickly. To that extent monthly BoP ­ only quarterly through Eurostat to the ECB as Central Banks. There's been a these are not successes in terms and annual. There's a lot of quickly as possible. I think it's lot of cooperation throughout of data for monetary union." pressure on us, and has been too slow. This is being the European statistical fraterni­ addressed and successfully. I for some years, to join main­ He goes on: "There's some­ ty to reach this position...to get think Eurostat is very sensibly land Europe in this respect. thing we haven't talked about through the convergence looking at ways of providing We're making a big effort." ­ labour market statistics. I'm process. One of the objectives data to the ECB before it has of my predecessor as CMFB not an expert but I think there's all 1 1 returns ­ by estimating So, if the euro comes to Chairman, Wolfgang Ducha­ a lot to do to harmonize these for the missing entries." Britain, a seamless statistical data. In the UK the Bank of transition? tczek, was to have a database England's Monetary Policy ready for ECB on 1 January Committee are extremely con­ UK 'pretty "Not exactly. We shall have 1999 and we largely achieved cerned about the labour mar­ euro­friendly' to put some effort into vari­ this. But it was a massive exer­ ket. So will the ECB look ous things, but the vast cise. increasingly towards this area? Wearing your national 'hat', I majority of the large data Although monetary policy is ask, what does being outside sets are in line with those of "We've all worked very coop­ still to the fore, there's quite a the euro­zone mean to you as other countries; and on pub­ eratively together, and that's lot of political pressure in a senior UK statistician? lic sector finance statistics, been of great benefit." ■ Statistics for the M 3/99 28 euro

xport credits are cred• Eits extended to a for• eign buyer of machinery and other capital goods including whole facto• ries, power stations etc. The general terms for publicly-supported cred• its have been agreed internationally. DG I noti• fies, on the basis of input from Eurostat, the interest rates that may be used for the euro and thus for the 11 curren• cies within the euro- zone. Information on actual rates is published on the Internet.

Interest rates for export transactions

When export credits are given with the support of gov­ ernments, it is considered a subsidy. Normally such subsi­ Luxembourg franc; in return ► A maximum bid/offer value equal to at least half that dies are not allowed by the there was one for the ECU. spread of 40 basis points of government bonds issued by WTO. But rates can fluctuate the 1 1 Member States ensures quite substantially over a long Following the euro's advent, a Compared with bonds used this. At present the selected period and it has been single euro CIRR now prevails as the basis for the more gen­ bonds have a market value of agreed that governments can for all participating countries. eral yield-curve, the basis for more than 800,000 million stabilise the interest rates. The National currencies have the euro CIRR curve is nar­ euro. condition for doing so is that legally become sub-divisions rower. We concentrate on the in practice they apply rates in of the euro. Maintaining dif­ part of the bonds considered The curve is used for different conformity with provisions in ferent interest rates depending by the market as representing purposes. There are separate the Arrangement on guide• on how the euro were sub­ the least risk. This is the way official interest rates for short, lines for officially-supported divided would of course not we approach CIRRs for medium and long-term credits, export credits. These rates are make sense. national currencies outside for large aircraft and nuclear called commercial interest ref­ the euro-zone, since the gov­ power stations. The most com­ erence rates - CIRRs. Calculation of ernments concerned will, of monly used rates for the time v euro CIRR course, always be able to set­ being are those based on CIRRs exist for every major tle a debt in their own curren­ three-, five-, and seven-year currency and are calculated Eurostat calculates a euro cy. In extreme circumstances bonds. on the basis of interest rates yield-curve on a daily basis they could always print a little for government bonds with (see page 30). Its basis is gov­ extra money. The 1 1 euro- The three-year bond rate is different maturities. To these ernment bonds. This fulfils the zone members can no longer used for export credits of five base rates certain margins following criteria: do this! years or less. The five-year are added - in most cases bond rate is for credits of over 100 basis points (one per­ ► Only fixed-rate 'bullet' While being more selective five years and up to and centage point). loans without special fea­ and thus also diminishing the including 8.5 years. The tures (eg call or put options, spread around the yield-curve, seven-year bond is used for Previously the 1 1 euro-zone zero-coupons etc) it is still important for it to be credits over 8.5 years. countries boasted 10 CIRRs. representative. Retaining obser­ None was notified for the I An issue size large enough vations for approximately 100 Why is there such an appar­ Portuguese escudo and the to secure high liquidity bond series with a market ent mismatch between the 3/99 Statistics for the euro G M 29

term of the bonds and the rates in the previous month. To CIRR average plus a margin, + 120 and +175 basis points credit terms for which they are preserve the continuity of the which depends on length of for 10 respectively 12­year used? The reason is export Arrangement, the national repayment. For all currencies, loans applicable to the other credits are repaid in semi­ CIRRs notified in December the CIRR average is calculat­ eligible currencies are also annual instalments. A 10­year continued to apply in the first ed taking an average of used for the euro. These mar­ credit thus will have an aver­ half of January 1999. monthly CIRRs valid in the six­ gins include the insurance pre­ age life of 5.25 years. To this month period from 15 August mium. should be added a production For the period 15 January to of the previous year and 14 period during which the rate 14 February 1999, the February of the current year. Information on rates has already been fixed Commission, again as an although the loan has not exception, notified a euro on The reference period ­ neces­ The Commission regularly been drawn down, or at least 14 January based on data for sarily and exceptionally ­ was notifies new rates for the euro only partially. the first half of January, this 1 to 14 January '99. But in CIRR, the LASU and the DDR being the maximum technical­ June 1 999, after longer expe­ to OECD, and informs the Basis for CIRR rates that enter ly­possible reference period. rience with the euro CIRR, this guardian authorities and the into force on the 15"1 of a Since then, normal reference rate, based only on a two­ export credit agencies of given month is the average of periods have served for the week history of CIRR, was Member States. The interest the bond rates for the previ­ euro CIRR. For example, fig­ revised in the light of the rates can be found on the ous month. The last five obser­ ures for April determined behaviour of the euro CIRR Internet at the following vations ­ those closest to the rates used for offers in May. over the longer term. addresses: period of application ­ are given double weight when Differentiated Discount Large Aircraft Sector http://europa.eu.int/comm/ calculating the average. Rate (DDR) Understanding (LASU) dgOl/cirr.htm and

Additional margin The discount rate used to cal­ Special rates used when http://europa.eu.int/comm/ culate the concessionary level financing large aircraft are dgOl /eurolasu.htm ■ To the values ­ average yields of an aid loan in a given cur­ determined on the basis of the of government issued bonds ­ rency is called the euro yield­curve averaged * Allan Gert Dalvin was from 1991­95 for constructing CIRRs a mar­ Differentiated Discount Rate over the previous two calen­ head of the export credit policy and gin of 100 basis points (one (DDR). This rate is subject to dar weeks. In this case, we export promotion division of DG 1. percentage point) has to be Since 1996 he has been adviser in annual change on 15 January focus on bonds with a 10­ added except for the Japanese DG IG on export credit and export and calculated by taking the year maturity. Margins of credit insutance policy. yen, which has a different basis and margin. This 'euro CIRR margin' is the same as the margin of 100 basis points The CIRR ¡n prcicti« that existed previously for CIRRs at Member State level. r Callud of the Office contracts that they are nego­ and exporters find the stabili­ The 100 basis points reflect the M national du Ducroire, tiating. sation system very useful fact that no private company Belgium's Export Credit because it enables them to has the same creditworthiness Guarantee Agency, and Mrs The Inter­ministerial FINEX­ offer the customer a fixed interest rate for credit repay­ as a government dealing in its Sauvage of the Belgian PO Committee, of which Mr ments. own currency, and the different Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Callud is a member and whose secretariat is provided by the amounts banks could charge Foreign Trade and Develop­ Ministry of Foreign Trade, inter alia for warehousing ment Cooperation, use the The fact that there is a CIRR commercial interest reference examines the requests every costs. rate for each currency (in rates (CIRR) daily. month and issues an opinion some cases weighted to reflect on each. The Minister makes the repayment term), valid for Special rules The Minister for Foreign his decision on the basis of one month, makes the system FINEXPO's opinion. more transparent and easier to Reference period for the Trade is authorised to inter­ vene to stabilise the cost of manage. The euro has not CIRR financing export credits for The stabilisation system used been around long enough to The euro has only existed Belgian goods and services. in Belgium has been in exis­ draw any conclusions about its from 1 January 1999 with no His intervention takes the tence since the Arrangement CIRR, although there is clear­ history before then. The euro form of interest rate stabili­ introduced CIRR for the vari­ ly a demand for the euro and base rate thus not be deter­ sation. Belgian banks and/or ous currencies. In most cases, a number of contracts with a mined in the usual way ­ by exporters submit requests for the currency of stabilisation is euro­denominated stabilisa­ taking the average of bond state intervention in export the US dollar. Belgian banks tion have already been signed. Statistics fo M 3/99 30 the euro

Directorate-General II of the European Commission and Eurostat have jointly constructed a yield curve that provides reliable information on euro interest rates and their development over time. It reflects average yields on bonds with maturities between one and 15 years issued by euro-zone governments. The information is updated daily and is easily accessible via the Eurostat web-site. In this article Commission economist LARS BOMAN explains the task of...

[introduction of the euro put ed through a regression tech­ issued by euro-zone govern­ iusers of economic informa­ nique that could display ECU ments, without discriminating tion in a new and rather interest rates graphically for against any Member State - unusual situation. The new maturities from one year to 10 for two key reasons. Firstly, currency had no statistical his­ years. using government bonds as tory. There were no time-series base for the calculation would available to outline its behav­ It was realised that clearly, give the resulting yield curve iour. At beginning of 1998, with replacement of the ECU almost Official' status. It could DG II, responsible for the by the euro on 1 January thereby be used as a refer­ euro's introduction, together 1999, this Eurostat service of ence rate when an interest with Eurostat, started working providing information on rate with such a status was on a project designed to interest rates in ECU would be requested. Secondly, govern­ answer the question: what discontinued. From the start ment bonds are generally per­ kind of interest rate informa­ the new-born euro financial ceived as the most creditwor­ tion on the euro should the market would contain a vast thy securities in the market, Commission provide? number of interest-bearing making the yield curve as securities and quotations of close a representation of the The project's started in 1 994 interest rates from a number 'risk-free' euro interest rate as when interest rate information of sources. This made it more possible. on the ECU was published. difficult for DG II and Eurostat For a number of years to choose the most appropri­ By including all the govern­ This meant that the 25-30 Eurostat had calculated a ate interest rate information to ment bonds issued in the euro- daily observations on ECU yield curve based on market provide if only one interest zone that met some qualitative bond yields would be observations of the yield of rate category were to be con­ aspects, the resulting yield replaced by potentially over the limited number of bonds centrated on. curve would represent an 1,000 daily observations on issued in ECU by highly-rated average euro interest rate bond yields in euro. In view of issuers. Based on these obser­ rather than the interest rate The choice was made to focus this multitude of data it was vations a curve was calculat­ level prevailing in any partic­ on interest rates of securities decided that Eurostat should ular Member State. aim to calculate a yield curve 1rh c iE uro Yield Cur ve for the euro based on only a riel J ΓΑ ) Key criteria selection of the available V--r--T---,---r---,--- 16 Aug 5.5 data. With 1 1 countries 23 Aug Data calculating the ECU adopting the euro and con­

5.0 21 Jul yield curve were transmitted verting virtually all their out­ to Eurostat by a capital mar­ standing government bonds to kets association called ISMA it, there would be no need to 4.5 (International Securities use other than government Market Association), which bonds since they have the 4.0 has a large number of banks highest credit rating in the as members. In summer market. Using only observa­ 3.5 1998, the Commission tions from government bonds secured agreement with ISMA would also mean the result 3.0 that from 1 January 1999 it would be a pure government would supply Eurostat with bond yield curve in euro, 2.5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 data on yields for bonds comparable with the US or Maturity (Years) issued in euro. Japanese equivalents. I G M 3 / 9 9 Statistics for the euro 31 the curve on track How to find it The euro yield curve can be found on the Eurostat web­site f~ (http://europa.eu. int/en/ comm/'eurostat/'serven /part2 /22euro.htm). Four pages are devoted to it. ~~~ First page displays the curve within the range from one to 15 years' maturity for three different dates: the previous day; previous week and pre­ vious month. Second page gives more detailed yield information in table form for all maturities between one and 15 years for the last five days. Also, the development of the yield for the three and 10 year maturity over the last 18 months is given in a graph. Third page displays the term spread between two and 1 0 years in two graphs ­ one for the last five days and the other for the last 18 months. Final page displays the volatility of the yield curve Additional selection criteria data would ensure the calcu­ The model employs what is in two different graphs. ■ ensured the observations used lated yield curve would fit the usually termed a 'cubic were derived from large, data well, with a low mean splinze' approach, common­ actively­traded bonds without error and high statistical sig­ ly used for yield curve esti­ any special features that nificance. mates. It estimates the yield Lars Boman is a curve as a series of adjacent could distort the yield obser­ Swedish economist who segments with their connect­ vations. The following criteria The way it's done ing points termed 'knot­ joined DG II in 1996 to are used: Estimation of the euro yield points'. In the euro yield work in the directorate for curve is undertaken with the curve calculation two knot­ ft issues with fixed­rate monetary matters in the help of a standard Ordinary points are employed, located coupons without special Least Square (OLS) technique at five and 10 years' maturi­ unit dealing with institu­ features based on polynomial func­ ty; this results in a yield curve tional, legal and financial ft minimum issue size of 500 tions. estimate with three segments. issues of monetary union. million euro To ensure continuity in the knot­points and between seg­ Before that he worked in OLS constitutes the 'classic' I maximum bid­offer spread ments, two constraints are different capacities in the of 40 basis points regression method whereby the imposed on each knot­point: parameters of the regression the first and second deriva­ financial markets for almost ft minimum remaining maturi­ model are estimated to minimise tives are equal. 10 years, both in the public ty of nine months. the sum of the squared residuals. (Swedish government) and This selection procedure The residual is the difference This produces a yield curve private sectors (the joint resulted in a sample of over between the observed variable ranging from one to 15 200 yield observations dis­ years in maturity so that its Swedish­Danish bridge pro­ and the one that is estimated by tributed over a 15­year matu­ slope can be estimated cor­ ject, part of the Trans­ rity range. The number of the model, in this case the result­ rectly over a broad range of European Network). observations and quality of ing yield curve. maturities. Statistics for the M A 3/99 32 euro

For this article, Sigma asked someone from the media to describe the interest shown in euro-statistics. SERGE MARTI, assistant chief editor of Ìe Monde and responsible for Le Monde Economie, tells us how he uses euro-statistics, and the expectations of his readers... Euro-statistics FOR ALL ach week Ìe Monde account and offered a more economies are doing, have advance indicators - like EEconomie - the business response to the new demands whether in terms of GDP, indus­ those in the United States on supplement to Le Monde - cov­ voiced by our readers. trial output, balance of pay­ short-term trends - that make it ers subjects that go beyond ments on the current account, possible to forecast, with all Each week, therefore. Le economics in the strict sense to or even unemployment rates. It the usual reservations, national Monde Economie uses Eurostat look at social, sociological and could be supplemented by short-term trends and their data to publish at the top of its high-tech topics. Explanation, indicators on external trade or knock-on effects on neighbour­ Boussole page a statistical analysis and comment need to the well-being of the system of ing countries. This is a tough table of the seven main base their arguments on things production, or on business cre­ job - which is already hard economies in the EU - that can be compared and on ations or failures, which are all enough for one country (even Belgium, France, Germany, reliable tools for measurement data not yet available. INSEE cannot really manage Italy, Netherlands, Spain and that can back up such compar­ it) - and one virtually impossi­ the United Kingdom - the idea On the other hand, experience isons, regardless of whether ble to achieve when you are being to show the UK along­ seems to show that simple per­ we are looking at economies, trying to make forecasts for 1 1 side the euro-zone before it centage changes from one countries or activities. or 15 countries with period to the next do not nec­ actually joins. These national economies still showing signs data are accompanied by essarily provide a very clear This is where statistics come in, of divergence. average figures for the euro- picture of the amounts and together with what they mean zone and the EU, and compar­ sums involved. This is particu­ The last area Le Monde in terms of scope and reliabili- ative figures for the United larly true in the case of the bal­ Economie would like to cover States and Japan. ance of payments. The main in European terms is the field shortcoming we have noticed of technological data. Such Right from the outset, Le People have welcomed this while compiling all these sets data would make it possible to Monde Economie wanted to approach, since Le Monde of statistics and indicators measure, and to compare, the give pride of place to the sta­ Economie is the only publica­ stems from the social indica­ progress of a particular coun­ tistical angle, and so we tion in the French press to pro­ tors, which are obviously inad­ try with regard to the sciences devote a whole page under vide this kind of European equate in relation to conven­ of the future in the high-tech or the heading Boussole - or information. These statistics are tional macro-economic statis­ multimedia sectors, and in the Compass - to short-term especially appreciated since tics. The reasons for this can be whole field of communications. trends, quite apart from the sta­ they cover such a wide range found in the sources of the Here, too, the statistics are tistical references that are dot­ (according to Eurostat, the information: the Member fragmented and inadequate. ted throughout the other pages data it collects cover about States. They are really short of in our supplement. In addition This fact is even more lamenta­ 90% of social and economic statistics in this field, whether to essential information about ble when - if we can believe topics), and they provide a nat­ relating to unemployment the economy, we deliberately what the experts say - technol­ ural complement for another (women, young people etc) or, focus on what ie Monde can ogy in the broadest sense cur­ set of information, under simi­ for example, part-time work provide as an 'extra', namely rently contributes about a quar­ lar headings, produced by and the various kinds of European statistics. With the ter or a third, depending on INSEE, the French national sta­ employment contracts that go introduction of the single cur­ the country, to national growth tistical institute, on the French with the different levels of flexi­ rency, these are more impor­ rates. This is a major industrial economy. bility in the various countries. tant in economic terms than revolution that is not yet reflect­ The people at Eurostat are purely national figures. Now that things have been ed in the statistics that the ana- aware of the problem and running for six months, what lyists get. And it is a failing have started working on new This is why we got in touch can we learn from these regu­ that applies both to Europe indicators, such as those cov­ with Eurostat, long before the larly-updated facts? The first and to the United States. ering labour costs. new currency emerged, in thing is that the table shows, in order to draw up a set of eco­ a traditional manner, all the Another thing that attracts But these comments - and nomic indicators that took the main aggregates that make it readers of ie Monde these promptings to expand advent of 'euroland' into possible to follow how one or Economie is being able to the range of available data - M 3 / 9 9 Statistics for the euro 33

must not overshadow the use­ The Euro Institute has two main fields of activities: providing information fulness of having the essential about the single currency and coordinating a network of European statistical information that now allows us to monitor the eco­ experts. In this article, MARIE WOLKERS, responsible for economic nomic health, clout and range studies at the Institute, describes its various activities and how it uses of euroland, an area of pro­ statistics in its daily work. duction and trade that is already the world's leading trading power, and an area that is biding its time before Statistics in support of challenging the United States as an economic power in terms of one key indicator: gross domestic product. ■ the single currency

uropean statistics have but there are still many prob­ Source Eanother challenge now the ems to be solved by the of comment single currency has arrived. national and European statisti­ cal offices. and regular The European Central Bank forum (ECB), which heads the ESCB, administers the single mone­ Pride of place Le Monde Economie, the tary policy of the 1 1, and to On a daily basis, the way we weekly supplement to the do this needs harmonized indi­ use statistics is as varied as our daily newspaper, focusses cators. work. on two tasks: To measure inflation, for ft To be a special source of instance, it was necessary to The Institute's first journal, information and com­ agree on common methodolo­ Aujourd'hui ¡'ecu, which ment on both French gy so that standardised indices appeared between 1 984 and and international eco­ could be provided. Calculation 1 993, already gave pride of money of account for euro­ nomic affairs, with par­ of the latter was, indeed, one place to statistics, which were zone statistics. This does pose mainly financial. It charted ticular emphasis on of the convergence criteria in the Treaty of Maastricht, and a problem with regard to time­ trends on the financial markets, macro­economic aspects provided a basis for selecting series at current prices. using tables covering, for and on the main topics the countries that would join Consider the data prior to example, bond issues, includ­ of economic and social EMU. 1999: depending on whether ing ecu bonds, and the rate interest affecting the you choose the current and make­up of the ecu. The world. In addition, since May 1998, ecu/national currency main sources at the time were there has been an aggregate exchange rate or the conver­ Eurostat, Euroclear and the ft To offer a regular forum price index for the euro­zone. sion rate for each monetary reports of the Bank for of instruction and dis­ The MUCPI (Monetary Union unit, the results ­ when it International Settlements. cussion for students and Consumer Price Index) looks at comes to inflation, for instance academics, as well as the share of each country's pri­ ­ will differ. For more than two years now, those in the business vate consumption in relation to the Institute has been publish­ world, with the aim of the EMU total. It is primarily But work on harmonizing ing a new journal ever two providing ongoing through monitoring this index European statistics covers far months, L'euro, la revue de la tuition (in the form of that the ECB complies with its more than the single currency. monnaie unique. It targets the questions and main objective: ensuring price What we need to do is to be mainly economic and social answers that accompany stability within the euro­zone. able to come up with compa­ The development of a mone­ operators, in the public and each article, the columns rable data ­ for the national tary aggregate is another private sectors, and its aim is on how the economy accounts, earnings, unemploy­ objective of monetary policy, to provide news and views works, the history of ment, external trade, for exam­ and that is why the choice fell about EMU. In this connection, economic and social ple ­ for the various countries on a broad aggregate similar we make regular use of the sta­ events...) and with a to French M3. in the Union and to have tistics published by Eurostat ­ commitment to tackle aggregate data for the zone as renowned for reliability and the vast subject of the Another interesting point is that a whole. We have done a expertise ­ by OECD and by technology­based econo­ the euro will be the single tremendous amount of work, the NSIs. my of the future. Statistics for the euro M 3/99 34

The Furo Institute has rate mechanism before the economic and financial writers euro was introduced. rely heavily on statistical data existed since 1982. At the for their analyses. The start it was solely a The Institute also has a docu­ • Institute's contribution to the mentation centre, open to the research centre, ŒPRFM. collection ­ an article entitled public by appointment and ' ^p*»­ Un rééquilibrage régional en In 1992 it became the Ecu used mainly by those in charge union économique et moné­ Institute, an association of euro transactions in firms, taire est­il possible? ­ required by teachers and by students. under legislation enacted a certain amount of data to be ^ They can tap into a whole in 1901, before subse­ brought together. We had to range of information by con­ , ^_ <„„„„„.„„„<». take the Community budgets M quently being renamed sulting various topics consist­ devoted to regional aid and the Euro Institute. It is ing of press articles, studies study how disparities between and a variety of publications, based in Lyon and partly regions changed over time. In including several from Eurostat financed by the European this instance, the indicators for (ECU­SME Information, per capita income are provid­ Commission, the town of Memos, Ecu Yield Curve ed by each Member State as Weekly Report etc). So, with Lyon and the district of average GDP per inhabitant in all this consultation and these Lyon. terms of purchasing power f requests for documentation, standards. This is an artificial there is a lot of searching for currency that reflects the pur­ A large part of the articles we very useful to have overall indi­ statistical data. The introduc­ chasing power in each coun­ publish is, in fact, connected cators for EU 15 or the euro­ tion of the Eurostat web­site try, allowing reliable compar­ with economic, political, zone, whether they are macro­ also means that reliable and isons to be made. social, monetary or financial economic and financial (infla­ up­to­date data are now readi­ developments in the EU. Our tion, GDP, debt, deficit, trade ly available. editorial team makes every balance, money supply, three­ The article entitled From the effort to illustrate articles with month interest rates, bond At the heart single market to the single cur­ cartoons, but also, in a more yields, euro­rates, market capi­ rency: new challenges for Apart from its work of provid­ serious vein, with figures. In an talisation etc) or demographic. European companies, which ing information about the euro, effort to be objective, the use It is then possible to look at was written by two officials in the Institute is at the heart of a of official data, often taken trends or to make compar­ the European Commission's network of European experts, from press releases, has isons, especially with the USA DG II, is based on data on EU whose work ­ stemming as it become something of a condi­ and Japan. price dispersion. To give anoth­ does from various working par­ tioned reflex ­ not only for er example, the article by Mr The weekly press survey ties or group efforts ­ can items in our news section but Hochreiter, The role of disinfla­ Eurohebdo also includes the eventually be published. By also as a reference for articles tion in European debt accumu­ most up­to­date statistical data way of example, a group of on general or specific topics. lation, also includes a few with the aim of providing a eight experts was involved in tables and diagrams showing In writing about the single cur­ topical review of economic producing a work entitled data on indebtedness and dis­ rency, we are very often and financial performances in International currency competi­ inflation. prompted to make compar­ the euro­zone, in Europe and tion and the future role of the among our trade partners. single European currency isons between various Member The annual meeting of the States, so that the considerable ■ν (1995). This included various Alongside the work we do for Institute's experts, the Entretiens discrepancies that still exist at tables showing the importance our publications, the Institute is Monétaires de Lyon, also many levels can be highlight­ of major world currencies at also involved in other projects bases part of its group work on ed. It does not matter whether various levels. They demon­ where statistics are very rele­ statistical data. we are talking about taxation, strated, for example, the vant. In January 1999 we fin­ income levels, unemployment breakdown by currency of var­ ished revising a practical These are just a few examples rates or even rates of growth ious countries' import and guide for SMEs, and at the that point to the tremendous and inflation, the figures, export trade, transactions in moment we are updating the use we make of statistics in which must be comparable, exchange markets by financial CD­ROM for professionals. It connection with our dual task are there to back up the analy­ centre, segment etc. includes a lot of diagrams from of providing information and ses. Eurostat's ECU­SME Informa­ The joint work entitled L'euro et conducting research and Some of the figures show there tion, such as those dealing l'intégration européenne, a analysis of the economic and is real convergence, while oth­ with central rates, bilateral collection of about 15 articles financial questions arising in ers indicate that it is a very deviations or divergence indi­ to be published shortly by the connection with the introduc­ gradual process. It really is cators of the EMS exchange Institute, is further evidence that tion of the single currency. ■ M 3 / 9 9 Statistics for the euro

In this article FRANÇOIS NALIDIN presents an idiosyncratic view of euro­statistics. He's a journalist working for Ε­value, a French financial newswire on the Internet, and a consultant to the European Finance Convention Foundation and Euro Week. Let Eurostat take care

o sooner had the ape start­ Ned to walk on two feet than it began to wonder how far it of the 'pennies'... was from its hunting grounds... about the deer it had not killed... to affection is considered been taken for granted. It was ble range of different activities the weight of the game it had beyond its bounds. The arts in a matter of course that people interacting ­ has turned this killed (especially compared to general are seen as devoid of would grow grain and breed need into an urge. Tools have that despatched by another a measurable character. In cattle, build cities and travel been forged and are con­ hunter), and so on... simple terms, it could be said the seas in ships they had stantly perfected. For that we wish to know the built. It was part of human instance, take inflation... One way to know about our exact measure of everything destiny ­ nothing to think Debasing coins ­ minting environment is to measure it ­ except what we consider the twice about. And while the them with less precious metal distance and size, volume most intimate and valuable scope and range of human than their face value suggests and area, density, speed, areas of our humanity. economic activities kept grow­ ­ has been common practice heat, light... We want to know ing ­ 'scope' meaning the but with no actual measure of how dry or damp the air is, number of activities involved And in between these non­ the effect on trade and prices. how loud or soft a sound, how measurable human aspects and their extension across the bright or dim a star... planet's surface ­ so, too, did and the material setting of our Inflation is a modern concept surroundings there is a vast the need to organise, sort, In order to measure, we have that, so to speak, was 'discov­ field ­ very appropriately rationalise and, yes, measure invented an incredible array ered' as soon as a means of named economics ­ describ­ them. of weights and measures, measuring it was invented. ing the relationship of human refining the system over many From this basic knowledge, beings with their material Need millenniums. Time was one of now an urge many economists have been environment. the earliest things to be mea­ able to analyse inflation, to The current complexity of eco­ sured, and paradoxically the For ages, or perhaps aeons nomics ­ with more people measurement of time has (note the lack of precision of than ever having a specific relentlessly posed problems activity as well as an incredi­ for humanity. But time ­ the these terms), economics has second, to be precise ­ is now the reference for all other The European Finance measurements in physics.

The reason for this develop­ Convention FoWldatlO ment is the dramatic precision ... which has collaborated kets of central and eastern Presidency, the Finnish achieved by the atomic clock. closely for 13 years with the Europe, enabling their govern­ Ministry of Finance, the The accuracy of modern mea­ European Commission and ments to meet and talk to pri­ Central Bank of Finland, the surement can be judged by other supra­national bodies vate investors, corporations, Finnish newspapers Helsingin manoeuvres in space, the such as the European financiers and bankers, as well Sanomat and Talous Sanomat. hair­thin chemistry of Parliament, European as Commission officials. Among the speakers will be microchips, and so many Investment Bank, EBRD Romano Prodi, new other examples of ingenuity and the ECB ­ has devel­ Next such meeting will be Commission President, Brian based on the very rigorous oped over the years a plat­ from 22­26 November in Unwin, EIB President, and adjustment of pieces or coor­ form for high­level meetings Helsinki. The 13th Annual dination of action. on financial issues for the European Finance several Central Bank public and private sectors. Convention and Euro Week Governors. But much human activity is still is being organised in associa­ unaffected by measurement. The Foundation also cooper­ tion with the European The EFCF's website is For example, all that pertains ates with the emerging mar­ Commission, the Finnish EU http://www.euroconvention.com Statistics for the M 3/99 36 euro

gins to be interpreted in as many different ways, such tol­ erance is now the route to chaos!

Statistics are Eurostat

In Europe, statistics are Eurostat.

Its carefully nurtured statistics ­ those 'pennies' that enable the 'pounds' to take care of them­ selves ­ service banks, includ­ ing the ECB, the Commission, the Council of Ministers, the European Parliament... The press knows and distributes them to a wide public. Economists, both in govern­ ment and the private sector, elaborate their models on the basis of Eurostat data and indices. In every respect, they're part of the European economic scene.

discover its causes and fore­ ket, inflation will soon surge; an adequate money supply Yet economics is still very far cast its likely effect. Inflation if too few means of payment for an 11­country group from being an exact science. has been mastered better are available, many opera­ according to open market This is due partly to the these last 10 years than ever tions are suspended or can­ needs. What a challenge! absence of a genuine mea­ before. We might even imag­ celled, and a kind of lethargy sure for value, like the metre ine a time when it will be will slowly paralyse the eco­ The Maastricht Treaty has for distance or the second for identified even earlier and nomic scene. deprived European govern­ time. Despite this, recent 'cured' like those diseases ments of much of the leeway developments show that, with that used to plague mankind Two decades ago nobody they had to 'play' with infla­ accurate measurement and but are now considered harm­ was quite sure that it worked tion, deficits and foreign proper use of the instruments less. On the other hand, while this way. The success of the exchange rates and smooth available, a country can map we suspect that something we deutschmark on foreign their countries' economic a secure passage even in call deflation occurs, we have exchange markets and the paths. The importance of stormy economic seas that no actual measurement for it, very low inflation in Germany accurate, timely and reliable may be worldwide. and, therefore, are at a loss to were attributed to various statistics has grown in propor­ detect, identify and analyse it. causes ­ but certainly not to tion. Europe is relying on Eurostat to Some even deny such a thing the accuracy of the plot its economic course. The exists. Bundesbank's expectation of What could be 'approximate' single currency is very new, open market needs (and in the past (with inflation in innovative and bold. It has Legal tender, as opposed to excesses) regarding the particular covering any 'mis­ never been defined in relation the gold standard, has made money supply. take') can no longer be so. to gold; it is pure legal tender it necessary for countries to The very scale of the euro­ and, as such, represents one of have a monetary policy. This When building the European zone economy prohibits the world's largest economies. means the Central Bank must Central Bank, its founding errors. When statistics were It could become a standard of match the amount of money fathers were well aware of purely national, there could measurement...a solid basis of available to the value of the German experience and be a margin of tolerance that the statistics used to map the goods and services transact­ did everything they could to might be incorporated in route of European union on a ed on the markets. If too much endow the new bank with users' appreciation of the situ­ more secure, and hopefully money is left on the open mar­ the capacity to master fully ation. With 1 1 different mar­ prosperous, cruise. ■ M 3/99 Focus on Member States 37 Integration of labour & energy statistics into the Dutch national accounts by Jan van Dalen, Wim Leunis and Henk Verduin of Statistics Netherlands

tatistics Netherlands is cur­ Srently carrying out a revi­ sion of the Dutch national accounts (NA) as part of the ESA 95 exercise. The first findings were recently submit­ ted to Eurostat as well as being published externally.

A national accounts revision provides a useful opportunity to improve the integration of other sets of statistics into the NA. This enhances the quality of national accounting and broadens the scope for utilis­ ing both the NA themselves and the source statistics. In this context, two specific pro­ jects have been carried out as part of the ongoing revision exercise: the energy accounts have been integrated into, and the labour accounts com­ pletely reconciled with, the NA. While data from these two systems have been used in the past for the annual national accounting exercise, there has been no consistent reconciliation until now. tage is that physical quanti­ independently of one anoth­ data on volume changes ties of supply and use are er. have now become much These two projects (energy now known which tally with and labour) are described more reliable. Data on the below. the values posted in the NA. With this integrated system, supply and use of energy An inherently consistent sys­ a more direct relationship sources were previously tem is thereby created in can be established between taken mainly from produc­ Energy - numerous which energy statistics, the major economic variables tion statistics, which provide advantages... NA and related statistics and environmental pollution, only the total value of pur­ such as the Pollutant while derived input/output chases and sales. The under­ Emission Register (PER - a The integration of energy sta­ tables make it possible to lying volume of the particular tistics with the NA offers set of air-pollution statistics analyse energy flows within energy source thus remained numerous advantages. Apart directly linked to energy sta­ the Dutch economy. unknown. from the wider range of tistics) are all featured. In the source data that can be past, these sets of statistics Another direct advantage of In principle, this value can drawn on, the big advan­ were, in part, produced this integration is that NA be calculated if the price of Focus on Member States M A 3/99 38

the energy source is known. who have to be dealt with mobile sources. On the road include emissions caused by However, it is notoriously dif­ separately in the NA. This transport side, the register the Dutch abroad, with a ficult to establish a reliable distinction does not apply in records not only emissions deduction being made for price for energy sources. the ESN. but also fuel consumption foreigners' consumption in This is largely due to pro­ and the total distance trav­ the Netherlands, has gener­ nounced fluctuations in the Another important considera­ elled by fuel type and ated a more realistic picture price of energy raw materi­ tion following on from the mobile source (including a of the greenhouse effect in als over time, reflecting above is that the ESN states breakdown into residents relation to the Dutch econo­ among other things world- fuel consumption for trans­ and non-residents) my. In the case of fuel con­ market trends and quality port purposes in purely func­ sumption for air transport variations. Moreover, there tional terms. This means, for An important objective of and ocean shipping, which is widespread price-fixing on example, that the petrol con­ the integration project is to naturally takes place mainly the use side, with individual sumption of cars leased by combine these three sets of outside the national borders, branches of industry agree­ computer service bureaux is statistics within a single this assumes far greater ing a set price for a particu­ not specified as such. In the framework. The associated importance. lar energy source depending NA, by contrast, consump­ comparison process has on the volume purchased. tion is broken down by given rise to major adjust­ In addition to emissions from The upshot of this price dis­ branch of industry. ments. For example, it mobile sources, those from crimination is that reliable emerged from the ESN data stationary ones (factories results cannot be obtained As a result of the ESN being that the NA figure for and the like) are also to be using a single deflator for all integrated with the NA, both domestic consumption of covered by the integrated values. systems have been adapted, diesel fuel was underestimat­ system in future. In summary, improved and supplement­ ed by approximately 16%. a consistent framework has In practical terms, the set of ed. For example, NA data On the basis of output statis­ been set up in which the statistics on energy supply in on consumption and produc­ tics, on the other hand, it is interrelationships between the Netherlands (ESN) is tion levels in the mineral oil now possible in the ESN to the various sets of statistics integrated into the NA. The and chemical industries allocate fuel consumption remain visible. ESN provides data on the have been adjusted in the data to individual branches supply of energy for each light of ESN figures. Data on of industry. In addition, via branch of industry, the use to electricity and natural gas the PER, part of the fuel Labour - which the energy is put, and consumption in the provision delivered in the Netherlands a 'top-down' the amount of energy deliv­ of business services have in can now be allocated in the ered. Thanks to its compre­ part also been brought into NA to non-residents. Also, it approach hensive description of ener­ line with the ESN. For both is known from the analysis gy production and use, as sets of statistics, the integra­ of the total distance travelled The Labour Accounts (LA) well as its depth of break­ tion process drew on use how much fuel is consumed describe the situation of paid down, the ESN is a highly- data from production statis­ by the Dutch abroad. By labour in the Netherlands. suitable source of data for tics on individual branches way of indication, a good For each economic activity, drawing up NA supply-and- of industry. 20% of Dutch diesel fuel data are compiled inter alia use tables. consumption occurs outside on employment - as mea­ Motor-fuel consumption for the country. sured in jobs, people and A factor that has to be borne road transport provides a full-time equivalents - and in mind when producing good illustration of how use­ Such analyses are of direct compensation of employees, these tables is that the ESN ful this integration is. importance for relating emis­ broken down according to relates to energy production Alongside data from produc­ sion data to the Dutch econ­ personal and occupational and use within the tion statistics and ESN fig­ omy. This 'linkage' is reflect­ characteristics, such as gen­ Netherlands' borders, ures on total fuel consump­ ed in a separate environ­ der, hours of work and level whereas the NA system tion for transport purposes, mental module in the NA, of training. describes the Dutch economy a major factor in this context the NAMEA (National as a whole. This is an impor­ is the PER, which complies Accounting Matrix including The NA data also include tant distinction, for example with the rules of the Inter­ Environmental Accounts). estimates of employment and in terms of energy consump­ governmental Panel on The module previously cov­ compensation of employees, tion by Dutch lorries operat­ Climate Change (IPCC) and ered total emissions pro­ albeit without any break­ ing outside the national bor­ is thus of importance for duced within the borders of down according to personal ders. By the same token, global environmental policy. the Netherlands (by residents characteristics. While the there are non-resident ener­ Included within the ambit of and non-residents alike). NA and the LA have hitherto gy users in the Netherlands the PER are emissions from Expansion of coverage to failed to match up complete- I G M 3/99 Focus on Member States

ly as regards the level of common variables, data on annual changes have been brought into line in recent years.

The LA are based mainly on labour statistics. These encompass registers and business surveys, for which the payroll accounting of companies is the most impor­ tant data source, as well as the Labour Force (Household) Survey coordi­ nated at EU level. The NA are based to a significant extent on statistics that draw on companies' cost account­ ing departments as their prin­ cipal source of data. Reconciliation of the two sys­ tems involves an in­depth check on the consistency and completeness of both.

It was agreed to take a top­ down approach, with recon­ ciliation being carried out at a certain level of enterprise­ class aggregation, namely that already applied and of aggregation. As a result, however, is the agreement to very important it is to moni­ published in the NA (corre­ the NA estimates for compen­ publish the LA and the NA tor a number of 'linkage' sponding, with a single sation of employees and jointly. variables, such as compen­ exception, to the two­digit employment were finally sation of and numbers of level of the NACE). In addi­ The project has thus resulted increased by a good 4% employees, in the sets of tion, the two systems may not only in a reconciliation each. The adjustment in the statistics used. Only in this themselves provide more of data but also in simulta­ LA was smaller, as the pre­ way is it possible to track detailed breakdowns. For neous publication. This has review figures posted there down inconsistencies, omis­ the LA estimates of employ­ been achieved by including were higher than those in the sions and population differ­ ment and compensation of in the NA (which are pub­ NA. ences in the various sets of employees, the wages con­ lished in English as well as statistics. cept was substantially Dutch) a separate labour­ changed to bring it into line In practical terms, synchro­ data series in which the key with ESA 95. nising the planning of the variables for labour are Altogether the main two systems proved an awk­ described. In addition, the progress is that statistics In the NA, these data were ward problem. Until now, more detailed data from the users can now avail them­ compiled from production sta­ the LA have been definitively LA are, of course, available selves of a consistent and tistics and other supplemen­ established only upon publi­ on request. The same goes detailed statistical informa­ tary sets of economic statis­ cation of the NA, as the req­ for the National Accounts: tion system covering not tics. These estimates were uisite data have become for example, detailed sup­ only all the standard data then compared at the agreed available only at a late ply­and­use tables as well as on the economy (the nation­ level of aggregation and the stage. In the future, this pro­ input­output fables can be al accounts) but also differences analysed. Any dif­ cedure will have to undergo obtained for a small fee. detailed data on the labour ferences observed were further streamlining. What market, energy consump­ explained and eliminated by has provided a major impe­ Reconciliation of the LA and tion and environmental pol­ applying a much lower level tus in the revision process, NA data .has shown how lution. ■ Focus on Member States M 3/99 40

The Dutch NSI is TOO years' old. In this article* DR JACQUES VAN MAARSEVEEN reviews its progress. He's the NSI's historian and until 1995 its head of government statistics and deputy director of socio­cultural statistics. Statistics Netherlands looks back a century

his year the Dutch NSI ue existing enquiries and pub­ Jhe first 50 VeOTS By the eve of World War II the Tis a century old. Its lications without the consent of Bureau had become a knowl­ statistics are important the CCS." The various Ministries were edgeable statistical institute for Dutch government quick to turn over many of their with a good international repu­ The CCS decided on the CBS policy, which is based on statistics to CBS, and this tation. During the war the work work programme and could negotiation and consen­ process was completed by was at first carried out as issue orders. The Royal Decree usual. In 1942 the CBS sus, which in turn 1906. New statistics were ini­ of 1899 was in force for employed over 1,000 people, require irrefutable fig­ tiated, with much focus on ures from an indepen­ almost a century. The new mainly because agricultural labour issues. On the eve of dent, autonomous pro­ CBS/CCS Law of 1996 in statistics had been transferred World War I centralisation had fessional institution. How essence reaffirmed the task from the Ministry of made great strides, and with did the NSI shape official and the formal relationship Agriculture. them the statistics over the between the Bureau and the Bureau's autonomy. decades? And what role Commission. The next 50 years... has it played interna­ One remarkable fact is that the tionally? In terms of budget, Statistics CBS evolved during crises, But the war left a devastated Netherlands falls under the depressions and wars. This CBS. Demand for statistics that

responsibility of a Ministry. was because the demand for could be used in the recon­ The Central Bureau of Statistics Early on it was the Ministry statistics increased under struction effort was high. The (CBS), recently renamed of the Interior; since such circumstances. first national accounts proved Statistics Netherlands (SN), 1932 it has been the On 28 Du· Wor|d Waf ^ crucial for economic policy was founded by Royal Degree Ministry of May, directly , v ,, or and Marshall aid. These on 9 January 1 899. Until then r ι. ι rv^inr ' instanceinstance, tnth e Economic atter this year s DGINS accounts had been prepared the Dutch Government and Netherlands Affairs. conference, Statistics Netherlands covertly during the war and Parliament had long consid­ had to celebrated its centennial with the were able to provide a coher­ ered statistics a luxury. international statistical community and prove ι s Whenever ent, quantitative picture of the However, lack of consistency, commemorated a century neutrality to the budget is national economy. the accuracy and completeness in tight, the strain of of Netherlands official belligerents the then existing official statis­ w m this relationship is statistics ' dependable As the welfare state pro­ tics led to the foundation of the statistics on imports, felt. Sometimes the gressed, more statistics were Central Commission of Bureau faced such enor­ exports and transit trade. required on social care, Statistics (CCS) and the CBS. mous cutbacks that its very These statistics were then com­ employment, housing demand, existence was threatened, as piled by the Ministry of pensions, population forecasts, The CBS's task was specified was the case in the 1 920s. Finance, but their quality was R&D etc. Multi­annual work as follows: "Within the limits such that they were transferred programmes were set up in imposed by the available The danger was that Ministries to the CBS and revamped, consultation with the CCS to financial means the CBS shall would take on the statistics cut at streamline development. gather, process and publish all the CBS, thus inflicting a blow to During the Great Depression of

statistical information which the effort to centralise official sta­ tne 1930s the Government Social statistics were expanded the

the Director considers useful fishes. There have also been and business community most. Economic statistics were har­

for practical or scientific pur­ conflicts between the CCS and urgent,y needed stat¡st¡cs fQ monized with the national poses." However, there was CBS with Ministers involved ι .ι ALI accounts. This required more coor­ plan the economy. A whole the following caveat: "The over attempts to intervene in sta­ , , ,. ,. . ... dination than before. And because „. ^.^^ , ,­„,. host ot new statistics was initi­ Bureau cannot undertake any tistics. But the CCS and CBS of the centralisation of statistics, atea, such as production new statistical enquiries, issue have always been able to main­ coordination made rapid indices, and turnover data. new publications, or discontin­ tain their independence. progress. S ι (. M Λ 3/99 Focus on Member States 41

Bureau managed to expand to finance the statistical demands 3,531 permanent personnel it imposes. by 1982. The CBS, now known as Statistics Netherlands, has set Budget cut after budget cut has goals to reduce the response led to a reduction of personnel burden, cut the flow of paper by a third since then. Between and provide better information 1992 and 1994 the CBS went more quickly through informa­ through a major reorganisation tion and communication tech­ The building of Statistics Netherlands in TheHague 1920­1974 to become more efficient. nology and advanced statisti­ However, in 1999 the Bureau's cal methods. The online data­ Coherent statistical description relationship between SN and programme is once more under bank StatLine makes data of the various social phenome­ the ISI: the latter is still housed threat ­ just as it was in 1973. more accessible. In future this na was the central aim. This at SN and the Director­General Current Ministerial plans put at will require a small, highly led to cutting unrelated statis­ of SN is an ex officio member risk the continuity and quality of trained staff, which means the work force will have to adapt. tics. It also resulted in labour of the ISI executive council. the statistics and the very exis­ accounts and social­economic tence of the Heerlen office. In this way SN hopes to contin­ accounts in the late 1980s. After World War II, the CBS Again statistics are being treat­ ue to fulfil its task of making sta­ Publication of compendiums or was very interested in interna­ ed as a luxury! tistics for practical and scientific statistical abstracts also sought tional cooperation through the purposes and policy. ■ to express social phenomena United Nations. It also initiat­ EU memberships adds to the

such as health, traffic etc. ed cooperation within pressure ­ especially since the ' translation from Dutch to English Benelux. The attitude towards EU in principle does not Rita Gircour, CBS Despite budget cuts new statis­ the European Community was tical enquiries were set up into somewhat less well disposed, FURTHER READING: burning social issues, such as given the limitation of policy the growing informal econo­ freedom it entailed for NSIs in Anne­Marie Kuijlaars, Het huis der getallen. De Institutionele geschiedenis van het my, employment, minorities... setting up their work pro­ Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek. Diss. Erasmus University Rotterdam, Amsterdam Transfer of the unemployment grammes. As a result, there 1999, Press Stichting Beheer IISG. ISBN 90.6861.166.6. (with a English summary). statistics register from the was sometimes a certain A century of statistics. Counting, accounting and recounting in the Netherlands (ed J Ministry of Social Affairs and amount of resistance to G S J.van Maarseveen and M.B.G. Gircour), Amsterdam 1999, Press Stichting. Employment to CBS in 1988 Europe. But come the nineties, Beheer IISG. ISBN 90.6861.168.2. was another highlight. CBS decided to engage in A century rounded up (ed J G.S J van Maarseveen and M.B.G.Gircour), Amsterdam intensive cooperation within 1999, Press Stichting Beheer IISG. ISBN 90.6861.174.7. Active internationally the EU. It also made important a Bibliography with all C8S publications, Honderd jaar cijfers in drieduizend publi­ contributions to technical Since its inception in 1899, caties (on the Internet). cooperation with Eastern CBS has been very active in de Nederlandse Volkstellingen 1795­1971 (The Dutch Population Censuses) on CD­ Europe and the former Soviet organisations for international ROM. Union. statistical cooperation. This Tweehonderd jaar statistiek in tijdreeksen 1800­1999. (Two hundred years of statis­ allowed it to develop into a tics in time­series), Amsterdam 1999, Press Stichting Beheer IISG. ISBN prominent statistical bureau Today 90.6861.175.5 +CD­ROM. with a great deal of interna­ and tomorrow Nationaal goed (Facts and figures about the Dutch society 1800­1999); ed. R.van tional influence. This was not der Bie and P. Dehing, Amsterdam 1999, Press Stichting Beheer IISG. ISBN 90. just a matter of course... In 1973 the CBS was shaken 6861.169.0. to the core. The Dutch govern­ At the beginning of the centu­ ment decided to split it in two. CBS building in Voorburg ry, other countries felt that the One office would remain in Netherlands was behind in sta­ Voorburg, close to the heart of tistics. That perception gradu­ government. The other was to ally changed, due partly to the go to Heerlen to compensate international orientation of the for mine closures in Limburg CBS directors. In particular, the province. Damage to CBS per­ establishment of the Interna­ sonnel and statistics was limit­ tional Statistical Institute (ISI) in ed thanks to a programme of The Hague contributed to repair and expansion. But the CBS's international reputation. whole operation was a tour de Even today there is a special force. Nevertheless, the Focus on Member States

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n October 1998 the Swiss east of the Neuchatel railway representative new building in For the first time in a federal IFederal Statistical Office station. The foundation was Neuchatel that, for the first building, the works of art on (SFSO), the national statistical laid in 1994 after Parliament time, houses all the various display throughout the building institute, moved from Berne to had granted a building loan departments under one roof. may be viewed electronically. a new building in Neuchatel. ofCHF 130 million. They are accessible to the pub­ The move from German­ The new location offers lic on large screens in the speaking to French­speaking When planning the new build­ approximately 200 individual entrance hall and also include Switzerland marks an impor­ ing, environmental require­ and double offices, four open­ interactive art on the Internet tant break for the SFSO and ments were highly prioritized: plan offices with working (www.collectivepainting.ch). ■ Swiss Statistics, which was low energy consumption, own space for 35 people, seven founded in 1 860. generation of alternative conference rooms, a large Contacts forms of energy and optimum conference chamber and a The construction and occupa­ use of the energy available library, information centre Address Federal Statistical Office tion of the new building for were the main objectives, and exhibition area for the Swiss Statistics in Neuchatel wbjch were met by a series of public on the ground floor. (SFSO) Espace de l'Europe 10 was the largest infrastructure innovative measures. The exhibition 'Six billion peo­ CH­2010 Neuchatel project of the last 20 years. ple' is currently on display at Following discussions of the Since end of last year the the exhibition area until 29 Internet Government to decentralise SFSO has been located in the March 2000. http://www.admin.ch/bfs Swiss federal administrations Neuchatel was chosen in the Further information: 1 980s as the new location for DESCRIPTION OF THE SFSO the SFSO. » CD­ROM Guide OFS/BFS The Swiss Federal Statistical Office (SFSO), which is part of the Ministry of the > Publication Statistics ­A uni­ The Berne architectural firm Interior (Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern ­ EDI), has around 530 employ­ versal language, available 'Bauart' won the two­fold ees. This number is slightly higher during major surveys such as the national cen­ in DE, FR, IT, EN (also on competition geared towards sus/structural survey of Switzerland or the business census. Almost two thirds of the CD­ROM Guide determining the design of the the employees are Germon­speaking, 30% French­speaking and approximately 6% OFS/BFS] SFSO building and the urban Italian­speaking. The annual budget amounts to around CHF 70 million on aver­ planning of the entire area age. 'armin. grosscnbachcr^lif.s.ad min. c:h M 3/99 Focus on Member States 43

that Sweden has pursued a Svante Öberg, new head of Statistics Sweden wait­and­see attitude and been dubious towards the introduc­ r Svante Öberg was He has worked for SCB before known among the Swedish tion of Intrastat and the Mappointed Director­ ­ from 1970­74 ­ and was a public. There will be more press European Community House­ General of Statistics Sweden member of its board from conferences and other activities hold Panel. (SCB) on 1 May 1999 succeed­ 1983­90. to encourage greater aware­ ing Mr Jan Carling. ness of SCB reports. He adds In his previous posts he was a Mr Öberg had considerable that the news media and the frequent user of statistics and is international experience, with Mr Öberg was previously Internet are a good way of reported as recognising both membership of several interna­ Director­General of the reaching the public and thus the strengths and weaknesses Swedish National Institute of tional committees, some within of the Swedish statistical sys­ increasing the value of statistics. Economic Research (NIER), the context of OECD. Within tem. He believes there is a Mr Öberg looks forward to where he had been since Europe, he was a member of the need for high­quality statistics working in the Statistical 1997. Before that, in 1990­91 EU Monetary Committee from in making forecasts and hopes Programme Committee (SPC) and from 1994, he was a 1994­97 and took part in the that he will be able to con­ of Eurostat and other interna­ State Secretary with the meetings of the Ecofin Council tribute to improvements in this tional statistical fields of coop­ Ministry of Finance, with during the same period. His field. eration. He knows SCB has other jobs have included adviser responsibilities embracing been active in introducing and domestic economic policies, He also says he will devote keen to realise the Harmonized in the European Department of financial markets and interna­ some of his time to making Consumer Price Index and the IMF in Washington from tional economic cooperation. Statistics Sweden even better short­term indicators; but also 1992­94. ■

ment for UK national statistics Minister responsible for the UK ONS Director to step down since the Central Statistical ONS, said: 'I am very grateful Office was formed during the to Tim Holt for the contribu­ im Holt, Director of the UK his successor, who will oversee Second World War." tion he has made over the past the Government's plans for the TOffice for National Statistics, four years in creating the ONS announced in June that he was creation of a more indepen­ Options for enhancing the and improving the quality and stepping down, probably with dent national statistics service integrity of UK official statistics standing of official statistics. I effect from the end of 1999. underlined a news release were spelt out in a Green am also very grateful to him for issued by ONS. Dr Holt (55) also serves as Paper published last year and announcing his intentions in Head of the Government "My standing down", Dr Holt firm proposals for the future of good time, so that we can Statistical Service and as said, "will coincide with the national statistics will be pub­ ensure a smooth transition to Registrar­General for England end of a phase of creating lished in a White Paper. the new governance arrange­ and Wales. His departure from ONS and preparing the ments and appointment of the all three posts is likely to coin­ ground for what I hope will be Patricia Hewitt, the Economic new Director of National cide with the appointment of the most significant develop­ Secretary to the Treasury and Statistics." ■

r Erich Bader, President Mof the Austrian Central Head of Austrian CSO retires Statistical Office since August Department, where, on top of nearly 11 years as President made it impossible to recruit fur­ 1988, retired on 1 July 1999. his administrative and personnel was Austria's entry into the EEA ther qualified staff. duties, he was involved in the Mr Bader was born in Vienna and the EU, an event with major Mr Bader's Presidency also rapid expansion of the comput­ in 1939. After completing his consequences for the country's saw creation of two new er centre. In 1981 he became studies at the Faculty of Law and federal statistics. From the start Departments (Environmental Deputy Head of the President's Political Science of Vienna of the entry preparations, Mr Statistics and Science and Office and in mid­1984 its University and his barrister's Bader represented Austria in EU Technology Statistics) and fur­ Head. training in 1963, he began his statistical bodies and led his ther modernisation of the CSO's career with the CSO. His first In August 1988 he succeeded country's drive to adapt its automatic data­processing position was in the Department Dr Schmidl as CSO Managing national statistics to the ESS. This equipment. for Foreign Trade, Transport and Director and in November of task was made all the more dif­ During his 1 1 years at the helm, Tourism, where he was respon­ that year was named its ficult by CSO staff reductions in Mr Bader made a crucial con­ sible for foreign trade statistics. President. the wake of government austeri­ tribution to the development of In 1968 he was appointed There can be no doubt that the ty policy and a recruitment ban Austrian statistics and its incor­ Deputy Head of the Technical most important event during his in the federal civil service, which poration into the ESS. ■ Focus on Member States 44

Statisticians

ince 1990 a major volley­ organised by Statistics than ever, with more than 35 tournament. It would be won­ Sball event has been organ­ Netherlands' staff in Heerlen. teams from at least 1 8 coun­ derful, say the organisers, if ised every year for the staff of The steering committee (see pic­ tries expected. they could make their debut in Europe's NSIs. The First ture) has been hard at work for Maastricht. Statisticians from Maastricht is a splendid loca­ European Volleyball Tournament the last two years to make this a such countries are asked to tion for ­ the oldest city in the for Statisticians (EVS) in major European event: it has its contact. own web­site of up­todate infor­ Netherlands, and a few years Voorburg, Netherlands, was an mation on this and previous tour­ ago witness to the completion Frans Duijsings of the EVS 99 instant success. It's since been naments. of a major step towards steering committee. held in Luxembourg, Lisbon, European union. This October Copenhagen, Paris, Stockholm, Interest in the EVS has grown Maastricht will again play a His e­mail address is Budapest, Warsaw and, most steadily over the years. key role in bringing together [email protected] recently, Bratislava. Nineteen teams from 1 1 coun­ large numbers of Europeans! and telephone number tries took part in 1990. This +31 45 5707001. This year the 10th EVS will be in year's 10th anniversary tour­ Some European countries EVS99­info: Maastricht from 29­31 October, nament looks set to be bigger have not yet taken part in the www.evs99.is.nl ■ Venta · Salg · Verkauf · Πωλήσεις · Sales · Vente · Vendita · Verkoop · Venda · Myynti · Försäljning

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This new statistical document coincided with the launch of EMU and the euro. It offers short-term series for a wide range of financial indicators such as interest and exchange rates, money supply and official reserves. It also contains specific information on EMU, such as that on the conver­ gence criteria and ERM2 (exchange rate mechanism).

There's also a wealth of financial market data. Currency time- Virata . ^%o-.^' series are denominated in ECU up to 1999 and thereafter in euro. Tables and graphs include euro-zone and in some cases EU15 aggregates along with national series of Member States, υ EFTA countries, USA and Japan. φ MONEY, FINANCE AND THE EURO: c STATISTICS (QUARTERLY)

This CD-ROM offers much longer and many more time-series of financial data than could be contained on paper. Some series with figures in ECU and national C 4-* currency ended with the advent of EMU. Data are taken from Eurostat's New Cronos database.

Money, finance and the euro: statistics

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