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National Drought Management Authority Mandera County

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National Drought Management Authority Mandera County NATIONAL DROUGHT MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY MANDERA COUNTY NATIONAL DROUGHT MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY DROUGHT EARLY WARNINGMANDERA BULLETIN FOR JUNE 2015 JUNE EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Agropastoral Normal Worsening Irrigated cropping Normal worsening Pastoral all species Normal Worsening Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges % of average rainfall (Oct- 80-120 Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Marc) VCI-3month 38.38 35-50 Biophysical Indicators State of Water Sources 4 5 Biophysical indicators Production indicators Value Normal No rains received in all parts of the County during the month ranges of June. Livestock Migration Normal Normal The 3-month Vegetation Condition index for the County was Pattern 38.38 indicating no droughts. Mandera East and North sub Livestock Body Conditions 4 4-5 counties had a VCI of 24.2 and 32.4 respectively indicating Milk Production 18.2 >26.2 moderate drought.The other four sub counties had normal VCI Livestock deaths (for No No death There are fifty centres including schools with water stress and drought) deaths is water being trucked by the County Government. Crops area planted (%) % of LTA All the biophysical indicators were within the expected normal range. Access Indicators Value Normal Socio economic indicators ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 50 >44.0 Milk production and consumption has decreased and is below the long term averages.TOT is within the normal expected Milk Consumption 13.0 >15.36 range. Water for Households 3-4 5 Migration of llivestock insearch of pastures specially cattle and Camel was reported from Mandera East, lafey, North and west Utilization indicators Value Normal sub counties to Mandera South, Ethiopia and Wajir County. ranges Depleted Pasture conditions witnessed in Mandera East while MUAC 20.5 <20.9 Lafey and North sub counties have poor pasture and South, Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.50 – 1.02 West and Banisa have fair pasture conditions. Decreased livestock prices witnesed in all parts of the County during the month under review The body condition of livestock is fair in western and Southern parts while in Eastern and Northern parts have poor body condition. The utilization indicators remained within normal ranges. There upsurge of diarrhoea outbreak in Mandera East and West sub-Counties has normalized. BIO PHYSICAL INDICATORS 1. MEASURING DROUGHT HAZARD 1.1 METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Actual Rainfall No rains were recieved in the entire county during the month of June under review. This is normal during this time of the year. The short rains are expected to fall on mid October. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT 1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The 3-month Vegetation condition for the County as at June was 38.38 indicating no drought. The VCI for two sub counties of Mandera East and North is showing moderate drought while the other four sub counties had normal VCI. The 3-monthly Vegetation condition index matrex for the County for June was 38.38 indicating no droughts as shown below. 2 Mandera East and North sub Counties VCI are indicating moderate drought with 24.21 and 32.41 respectively as shown in the matrix below 1.2.2 Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Condition Field Observations show that Mandera East has depleted pasture where all the livestock have migrated to Mandera South sub County, Wajir County and Ethiopia Lafey and North have poor pasture conditions while the three remaining subcounties have fair pasture condition. The average distance to grazing areas from the main source of water was 8.3Km while that of households access to water was 6.9Km, and when compared to the month of May, the average grazing distance had increased by 1.2Km as shown in graph below. 3 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.3.1 Water Resource The main water sources for the County were Earth pans, Boreholes, Shallow wells, River Daua,water trucking and under ground water tanks. There are fifty centres including schools with water stress and is water trucked by the County Government. 22 centres in Mandera west, 18 centres in South 8 centres in mandera East and Lafey and 8 in Mandera North 2.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production The main livestock reared by the pastoralist are camel, cattle, goats and sheep. Camel & cattle being long term assets while shoats are short term assets/current assets. 2.1.1 Livestock Ownership 2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns Migration of llivestock insearch of pastures specially cattle and Camel was reported from Mandera East, lafey, North and west sub counties to Mandera South, Ethiopia and Wajir County. 2.1.3 Livestock Body Condition The livestock body condition for all species is fair though on worsening trend in comparision to last month in Mandera South,West and Banissa Sub counties Mandera East specially Khalalio and Hareri divisions (remaining Cattle and shoats) have poor body conditions. 2.1.4 Livestock Diseases There were no major disease outbreaks reported during the month. However, few cases of CCPP have been reported in Mandera South, East and West sub counties. 2.1.5 Milk Production Milk production decreased in comparison to last month with total of 33.0 bottles in May and 18.2 bottles in June. Mandera East, north and Lafey, milk is hardly available and been sold at 100ksh to 120 ksh per bottle. This is due to migration of livestock insearch of pasture to South, Wajir and Ethiopia. In comparision to long term mean, the average milk production is below normal as shown in the graph below. 4 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production 2.2.1 Date of Planting and Area planted 2.2.2 Stage and Condition of food Crops In Irrigated cropping zone: Most farmers have planted maize, Sudan grass and cow peas. Maize crops are at tussling stage of production while other horticultural crops are harvested and readily available in the market though expensive. In Agro pastoral zone: No crops have been planted after the failure of long rains. 2.2.3 Harvest No harvest had been witnessed in the entire livelihood zones in the county during the month under review. ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices 3.1.1Livestock Terms of Trade The term of trade for the month of June was 50kgs of maize per goats. Compared to long term mean, the Terms of trade are above the normal range. 3.1.2 Cattle Prices Average cattle price decreased from Ksh16, 425 in May to Ksh 15,529 during the month of June 2015, the decrease in price was attributed to low market demand. In comparison to the long term mean, the average price was lower by Ksh3281. 5 3.1.3 Goat Prices Average goat price decreased from Ksh 3740 to Ksh 3,246 for the month of June. The decrease in price is attributed to worsening body condition and low market demand. The decreased goat price decreases the food security of households thus reduces the purchasing power of the household as they use goats as daily income. Compared to the long term mean (2011-2014), the average price was within the normal expected range. Agro Pastoral zone recorded the highest average goat price with Ksh 3,896 followed by Pastoral all species zone with a goat costing Ksh 3,294 and that of Irrigated cropping zone with Ksh 2,550 per goat. 3.1.4 Sheep Average sheep price decreased from Ksh 3,035to Ksh3, 021during the month of June as shown in the table above. Compared to long term mean, the average price was higher by Ksh482during the month of June 2015. The highest average price was noted at Agro pastoral zone with Ksh 3233 followed by irrigated cropping zone at Ksh3000 and Pastoral all species zone recording at Ksh2830 6 3.1.5 Camel Prices The average camel price decreased from Ksh 36789 to 30363 during the month of June 2015. The highest average price was achieved in the Agro pastoral zone followed by pastoral all species. On the other hand, the average camel price was lower than the long term mean by Ksh 2385 as shown in the table below : 3.1.5 Milk consumption and Prices Milk consumption has decreased in comparison to the month of May 2015. The total number of litres consumed was 13litres while total produced was 18 litres on average for all the sampled sentinel sites.The average milk price was Ksh 65 per 750 ml bottle during the reporting month. 3.2 Price of cereals and other food products. 3.2.1 Maize The average maize price during the month of June was Ksh65 per kg. Compared to the preceding month of May, the average prices were at bar When compared to the long term mean price, the average price was within the normal the expected. The Graph below gives an illustrational view of the trend. 7 3.2.2 Posho (Maize Meal) The observed average Posho price during the month was Ksh 80 per Kg.When compared to last month,the average price has decreased by Ksh 2/= In Comparison to the long term mean, the average price was lower by ksh6/=. 3.5.1 Income 3.5.2 Livestock income The main source of income for all livelihood zones during the month under review was casual labour and sale of livestock. 3.5.3 Casual Labor The average daily wage from sampled divisions was Ksh 360 but from general observations it ranged between 300/= to 750/= per day. Compared to the preceding month, the average daily wage had slightly decreased. The highest average income was reported in the Agro pastoral zone followed by irrigated cropping zone and Pastoral all species zone respective 8 4.0 UTILIZATION INDICATORS 4.1 Health and Nutrition Status 4.1.1 MUAC The percentage of children (<5yrs) at risk of malnutrition based on mid upper arm circumference (MUAC<135mm) for the month of June was 20.5%.
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