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F OCUS ON IT AND D IPLOMACY IT COMES OF AGE IN THE MIDDLE EAST alerie Sinclair V THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION IS CREATING A NEW GENERATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST THAT WILL LIKELY, BUT NOT NECESSARILY, BE MORE DEMOCRATIC. BY JON B. ALTERMAN n the United States and in much of the developed world, new information and communications technologies have created a universe in which information is unimaginably plentiful and accessible. This abundance has shaped a new generation of youth, fundamentally different than their elders. Many of them cannot imagine researchI without the Internet, or communication without cell phones, e-mail and instant messaging. The idea of ter- restrial television — showing just a handful of programs, often at awkward times and with imperfect reception — has 36 FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL/DECEMBER 2005 F OCUS yielded to a limitless world with hundreds of crystal-clear was the age of mass media. Government newspapers channels, hundreds of thousands of DVDs, and digital reached out to the newly literate, and government televi- video recorders that render broadcast schedules irrele- sion reached out to those suddenly wealthy enough to vant. Potential audiences are huge, but they are fickle, own a television. In places like Cairo and Baghdad, elite and beyond the control of any single individual, group or politics gave way to populist politics, and the children of movement. What once had been arcane is now com- the newly urbanized became the newly politicized. monplace. The Middle East is going through a similar transition. An Age of Media Plenty Although access to media and information remains far Now, in the first half of the 21st century, Middle more restricted than it is in Western Europe and the Eastern governments are losing their strangleholds on United States, in relative terms the change is just as rev- their publics. It is an age of media plenty. Any notion olutionary. There, too, a new generation is emerging. that there is a single “Arab line” on a matter of interest is They share with their Western counterparts the creativi- demolished nightly on Al-Jazeera, Al-Arabiya and a host ty that follows from an exponentially freer media envi- of other stations. It is fascinating to see how different the ronment, and the growing sense of individualism that new generations growing up in this environment are from such an environment creates. What is confounding to their elders: so much more questioning of their identities, many in the United States is that this new generation so much more individualistic, so much more impatient. does not feel an instant kinship with the media-rich Much has been written about the relative youth of Western culture. If anything, a growing menu of Arab Middle Eastern societies. Forty-six percent of Yemenis media offerings has accentuated divisions between the and 45 percent of Palestinians are under 15, according to Arab world and the West, and made more raw the feel- U.N. numbers. Half of Saudis are under 18. Many Arab ings of anger, injustice and unfairness that many Arabs countries are among the youngest societies in the world. feel toward the non-Arab world. What is often forgotten in the mix, however, is how In the near term, the primary effects of the informa- much more literate young people in the region are than tion revolution in the Arab world are likely to be domes- their parents’ generation. In just the last 15 years, tic. Old categories will be challenged, and a richer spec- UNESCO estimates, adult literacy in Yemen has shot up trum of thought and belief will spring up. Governments from 50 to 68 percent, and in Syria from 80 to 95 percent. that relied on familiar tools to mobilize the public and Egypt’s overall literacy rate among those 15 and older is censor undesirable views will find themselves stripped of 55 percent; its literacy rate among youth aged 15 to 24 is the capacity to do either; nongovernmental groups and 73 percent. Jordanians, Palestinians and even Omanis individual personalities will have a reach within and now enjoy youth literacy rates above 95 percent, suggest- between countries that would have been unimaginable ing that complex information can pass hands far more only a few years ago. easily than even a generation ago. The world this new generation creates will likely — Feeding into this more literate population is a smor- but not necessarily — be more democratic, but it may be gasbord of information platforms that barely existed a even less liberal than its predecessors. Most important to decade ago. First off is the publishing revolution that remember is that information and communications tech- computers created. The ability to publish not only books, nology will reshape the task of governance in the Middle but, even more importantly, pamphlets and fliers, has East, and governments who fail to respond to the new become a great equalizer for those with limited environment will do so at their peril. resources. Marginal tracts can be produced with great The second half of the 20th century in the Middle East skill, and the key challenge is no longer to get something in print. The challenge, instead, is convincing someone Jon B. Alterman is a senior fellow and director of the to read one’s work instead of a myriad of other articles, Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and pamphlets, tracts and books that can be found on any International Studies in Washington. He is a former street corner in the region and outside every mosque. member of the Policy Planning Staff at the Department In the same way, local newspapers have a harder time of State. staying relevant. Elite regional papers — often edited in DECEMBER 2005/FOREIGN SERVICE JOURNAL 37 F OCUS London and distributed to satellite- The Internet is not yet channels fill the airwaves. Most are linked printing facilities throughout available at no charge and, contrary the region — cover the news more a mass medium in most to popular belief in the West, most authoritatively than national papers, focus on entertainment rather than and domestic audiences increasingly countries in the region. news. U.S. government officials turn to a wide variety of television often complain bitterly about the lat- news programs for information and Among young elites, est outrage on Al-Jazeera, which con- analysis. Local papers often respond tinues to garner the highest marks in by playing up their “local-ness,” however, it is a totally the region for the trustworthiness of accentuating nationalist concerns its coverage. Yet the bulk of Arab and day-to-day interests. For elite different story. audiences — and especially young readers, the local press in many ones — are not Al-Jazeera junkies. places has become merely a way to Instead, they tune in to a daily diet of keep track of where the government stands on many game shows, music videos and reality television. issues; it has lost its role as either a leader or shaper of The audience for the Arab channels is impossible to opinions. estimate precisely, but upwards of 50 million Arabs — about 17 percent — have access in their own homes. The Birth of MBC Combined with the number who watch in public places The greatest change in the regional information envi- like coffeehouses and those who watch videotapes of ronment has been the rise of Arab satellite television. Its particularly newsworthy programming, the number of roots lay in Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait in Arabs who are touched by satellite broadcasting begins August 1990 — an invasion that went unremarked on to approach the number who have an interest in it. Saudi domestic television because news editors were unsure how to report the events. An urgent desire to The Internet’s Reach understand what was happening next door gave rise not Internet access is far less common than satellite tele- only to Saudi and Egyptian rebroadcasts of CNN on their vision access. The International Telecommunications terrestrial network, but it breathed life into the idea for a Union’s 2004 figures put Internet access rates in two key small Saudi-owned station called the Middle East Arab countries, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, at just 6.3 per- Broadcast Center. cent and 5.4 percent, respectively. While most surveys MBC was launched as a subscription-free satellite ser- suggest somewhat higher numbers, the Internet is not yet vice in 1991, with a mix of news, entertainment and a mass medium in most countries in the region, with the movies. The revolutionary idea behind MBC’s news pro- exception of the oil-rich United Arab Emirates. gramming was that a truly Arab channel could cover Among young elites, however, it is a totally different developments in the Arab world better than any of its story. E-mail offers further opportunities for communi- Western competitors. The correspondents and editors cation, especially for those with friends or relatives over- would know the context, they could do away with a cum- seas. Chat rooms abound, many of which are password- bersome apparatus of translators and fixers, and they protected and all but inaccessible to outsiders. Arab pop would have the advantage of speaking to an informed stars maintain impressive sites, often in multiple lan- Arab audience instead of a fickle Western one. guages. A variety of sites provide religious guidance from There were two problems. First, no one had ever all points of view and, for readers who are only comfort- done it before. Equally daunting, how could such a able in Arabic, such sites provide the bulk of what many daring experiment flourish in an environment as turn to for research on the Internet.

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