Scaling 36 Solutions to Halve Emissions by 2030
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SCALING 36 SOLUTIONS TO HALVE EMISSIONS BY 2030 VERSION 1.5, 2019. Lead authors Complete citation Published 19 September 2019 Johan Falk J. Falk, O. Gaffney, A. K. Bhowmik, P. Bergmark, This is a co-designed report. We have put together Future Earth, Stockholm Resilience Centre, V. Galaz, S. Henningsson, M. Höjer, L. Jacobson, a multidisciplinary team representing academia, Internet of Planet K. Jónás, D. Klingenfeld, T. Kåberger, B. Loken, business and NGOs – from energy specialists, data D. Lundén, J. Malmodin, T. Malmqvist, V. Olausson, modellers, ICT analysts and urban researchers Owen Gaffney A. Pearce, E. Pihl, T. Shalit, Exponential Roadmap to exponential strategists, journalists, editors, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 1.5. Future Earth. Sweden. (September 2019). designers and data visualisers. The lead partners Stockholm Resilience Centre of this edition of the Exponential Roadmap are – Future Earth, WWF, Ericsson, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact All authors and contributors are listed on pages Research, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Sitra, 169–11. Mission 2020 and Internet of Planet. LETS HALVE GLOBAL Lead partners EMISSIONS BY Supporting partners WWW.EXPONENTIALROADMAP.ORG 5 CONTENTS 06 Foreword 114 SCALING THE 10 Executive summary TRANSFORMATION 18 About this report 116 Cities “The next few years are 122 Climate leadership 20 MEETING THE 1.5°C 130 Policies and targets probably the most important CLIMATE AMBITION 138 Open data for in our history.” climate action 46 TRANSFORMING 142 Financing the transition SECTORS 150 Exponential technologies Debra Roberts 48 Energy supply and solutions Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group II 58 Industry 68 Digital industry 159 FINAL WORDS 76 Buildings 84 Transport 160 References 94 Food consumption 169 Contributors 104 Nature-based solutions 172 Image credits 6 EXPONENTIAL ROADMAP 1.5 WWW.EXPONENTIALROADMAP.ORG 7 FOREWORD We need a vision for a world free These five forces are aligning once more. We are at the beginning of the The energy sector has recently reached a tipping point where wind I see all evidence that social and economic mother of all transformations to stabilise Earth’s temperature at 1.5°C. and solar outcompete fossil-fuels in most regions of the world. tipping points are aligning. We can now say from fossil-fuels and a pathway The Fridays For Future movement and Extinction Rebellion have exploded The end may well be nigh for coal. Oil and gas will not be far behind. the next decade has the potential to see the to achieve it. As co-chair of the onto the scene in the last twelve months and are changing how we talk about Expect the unexpected. fastest economic transition in history. The 2019 United Nations Climate Action climate. More countries are discussing climate emergency declarations, Exponential Roadmap is an excellent guide for Summit’s ambition advisory group and goals to reach net zero by 2050 or earlier. Businesses are calling for We should not assume energy demand must keep rising. Energy demand the necessary journey to net zero emissions. stronger legislation and investors are demanding climate-risk disclosure. can be reduced a phenomenal 40% while still providing the same quality Christiana Figueres I welcome this report because it Now zero-carbon technologies outcompete fossil-fuels and this is killing of life and services as today. What’s more, people in developing economies provides just that. old tech. And finally, science is highlighting the colossal risks of inaction, can access the same opportunities. Former head of the United Nations and the equally huge opportunities from a fast transformation. This will deliver Framework Convention on Climate Change, Our history is defined by momentous societal energy and food security, cleaner cities, less pollution, healthier diets and And finally, nature-based climate solutions – planting trees and protecting founder of Mission 2020 transformations: the industrial revolution, the economic growth. peatlands – have the potential to become vast stores of carbon. women’s vote, civil rights, the end of apartheid Solutions are scaling fast. More people are demanding healthier diets with in South Africa and the Green Revolution. Major leaps forward are driven by “Meeting the 1.5°C Climate Ambition” is part of the second Exponential The remaining carbon budget for a 1.5°C lower carbon footprints. Major vehicle manufacturers have announced disruption from a combination of social movements, government policies, Roadmap. Together they articulate how far we have come and how far we need future is falling 10% each year we fail to act. plans to phase out fossil-fuels from light vehicles and investors are gaining market confidence, new technologies and science. to go. Step by step, they chart how the world can move from incremental to We should be nervous. But the window of confidence in alternatives to fossil-fuels. But progress must accelerate and exponential action – doubling the number of companies, cities and countries opportunity is still open. While this scale of governments must drive it. First by declaring a goal of net zero emissions by acting on climate, then doubling again and again. These are the exponential transformation is unprecedented, the speed 2050 at the latest. Then adopting a carbon law pathway to reach the goal. strategies now needed to cut emissions 50% by 2030 or earlier, then doing is not. We hope the 2019 Exponential Roadmap it again by 2040 and again by 2050. This is the carbon law pathway and you provides a useful compass. “ Progress must accelerate will be hearing a lot about it in these pages. All this points to the potential for the 2020s to see the fastest economic transition in history. This is the future we all want. Johan Rockström and governments must drive Along this journey we also need to store more carbon by protecting forests Manuel Pulgar-Vidal Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate and peatlands and planting more trees on a truly unprecedented scale. Impact Research, Germany and co-chair of Leader of WWF’s global it. First by declaring a goal We will need to turn agriculture from a source of carbon to a giant store, Future Earth but this will enhance soils and improve crop yields. And we will need to protect climate and energy practice of net zero emissions by 2050 Earth’s remaining wildernesses – the oceans and land that safely store half of our at the latest. Then adopting carbon dioxide emissions and shelter our biodiversity. This report highlights how: a carbon law pathway to About 56% of potential emissions in 2030 could be reduced relatively easily with economically attractive solutions that can scale rapidly. This reach the goal.” jumps to 64% if we use promising technologies that are unproven at scale. 8 EXPONENTIAL ROADMAP 1.5 WWW.EXPONENTIALROADMAP.ORG 9 Every day we get reminders of the urgency Understanding where we are and how far Food and land-use account for 23% of The world is a long way off the pathway we of climate action. Our experiences with we still need to go to tackle climate change, global greenhouse gas emissions, yet these need to be on. But the roadmap shows that record temperatures, sea ice melts and is the foundation for achieving our common sectors are often overlooked when it comes we can achieve this goal. widespread wildfires give us a sense of the exponential action plan. We have the vision, to developing mitigation strategies. Shifting Owen Gaffney changes underway. And the science provides we know what to focus on. Now we need to unhealthy, unsustainable diets in Western an increasingly clear picture of the dangers accelerate the efforts of civil society, business, industrialised countries and preventing the Exponential Roadmap co-lead author, ahead. This report shows there are solutions cities and people and make sure the transition transition to Western diets in low income Stockholm Resilience Centre and Potsdam for businesses and governments thanks to the is fair and brings us well-being and a sustainable countries is the greatest lever we have in Institute for Climate Impact Research combination of science and ingenuity. We have future. This is the responsibility of us all. reducing emissions from food consumption, the tools to drive the transformations needed to while simultaneously reducing health-care Mikko Kosonen tackle the climate crisis. Let’s use them. costs and human suffering from malnutrition President, Sitra and diet-related diseases. In addition, Amy Luers agriculture has huge potential for both reducing Executive Director, Future Earth emissions from land-use and storing carbon. All universities have a responsibility to support Science is clear. It’s now time to act. exponential climate work. KTH Royal Institute Gunhild Stordalen As a sustainability pioneer, we have been of Technology do this through leadership in both an advocate of climate action and research, in education and in cooperation with Founder and executive chair, EAT Forum investing in research and development of other parts of society. Thus, we are dedicated climate solutions. We believe leveraging to stimulating new ways of thinking about technology, such as digitalisation and 5G, society and about how these can support This roadmap uniquely focuses on three things. will be fundamental to halve emissions every climate targets and the SDGs. The immediate priorities – reaching peak decade. Ericsson have cut our own emissions emissions in 2020 and racing to cut emissions in Sigbritt Karlsson by 50% and are working to meet further half by 2030. How we scale the new low-carbon reductions. We have demonstrated solutions President, KTH Royal Institute of Technology solutions exponentially and how we need to think that help make it possible. Now other in terms of systems transformation of the whole companies and policy-makers must act to scale economy.