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Climate Adaptation Impacts, Risks, And Henan Xichuan Integrated Ecological Protection and Environmental Improvement Project (RRP PRC- 53053-001) TA-9753 PRC: Preparing Environmental and Rural Development Projects - Henan Xichuan Integrated Ecological Protection and Environmental Improvement Project - (53042-001) Supplementary Document Climate Change Impacts，Risks and Adaptations Assessment Final report Hongmei XU Climate Change Consultant September 2020 Final Report NᴧREE A. Introduction 1. Climate change, risks management and development 1 Over the past century there has been a trend towards increasing global average temperatures. Global temperatures are projected to continue rising. While specific, local outcomes of climate change are uncertain, recent assessments project alteration in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, or duration of weather and climate extremes, including climate and hydro-meteorological events such as heat waves, heavy precipitation events, and drought. Such change, in a context of increasing vulnerability, will lead to increased stress on human and natural systems and a propensity for serious adverse effects in many places around the world. 2 Climate change poses risks to human and natural systems. Climate change risk management is an approach to identify, assess, and respond to climate risks. Managing the risks of climate change involve socio-economic pathway, adaptation and mitigation decisions with implications for future generations, economies, and environments. Climate change adaptation refers to the process of adapting to the actual or expected climate and its impacts. 3 The purpose of climate change risk management is to ensure that the expected outcomes of strategy, policy, and investment can be achieved. Although climate change and its uncertainties pose a challenge to climate change risk management, climate change risk management is an effective way of reducing wrong decisions. 2. Project profile 4 Henan is one of the poorest provinces in the PRC and Xichuan County in Henan Province is one of 65 national poverty counties with low human development index declared by the PRC Government. Xichuan County is lying at the headstream of the middle line of the south- to-north water transfer project (SNWTP), while the middle line runs from Danjiangkou Reservoir on the Hanjiang, a tributary of the Yangtze River, to Beijing (Figure 1). Xichuan County however faces various restrictions on development mainly due to the fear of degrading water quality and quantity in the Danjiangkou Reservoir. Figure 1. The middle line of the south-to-north water transfer project (SNWTP), the Hanjiang Basin and location of Xichuan County. TA-9753 PRC: Preparing Environmental and Rural Development Projects - Henan Xichuan Integrated Ecological Protection and Environmental Improvement Project - Consulting Firm (53042-001) NAREE International Limited (Hong Kong) and NAREE Consulting Limited (Beijing) / September, 2020 Final Report NᴧREE 5 Henan Xichuan Integrated Ecological Protection and Environmental Improvement Project (the Project) is built with the three main tasks of “protecting the ecological environment of the Xichuan, improving the living standards of the residents and promoting the local economic development”. The project is expected to produce 3 outputs: (i) Institutional capacity of Xichuan Government (XCG) developed; (ii) Soil and water conservation practices improved; (iii) Rural water services improved. The impact of the proposed project will be rural vitalization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) realized (YREB Development Plan, 2016-2030). The outcome will be water resources management in Xichuan County improved. 6 Output 1: Institutional capacity of Xichuan Government developed. This output will include: (i) institutional support and capacity building program for agricultural value chain including establishment of cold storage facilities and improvement of farmers’ accessibility to digital market platforms; (ii) pilot soil erosion mitigation at watershed scale through research and development including implementation of integrated measures as well as monitoring and evaluation provisions; (iii) community-based environment management including awareness raising, capacity development, and pilot activities water and environmental management; (iv) institutional capacity development for flash flood mitigation, including enhancement of existing river flood monitoring system, improvement of localized early warning system, and development of flood response capacity; and (v) rural eco-tourism development to promote environment friendly tourism services and improve living conditions. In addition, general capacity building and consulting services will be provided for project startup, implementation, project management, external monitoring and evaluation. 7 Output 2: Soil and water conservation practices improved. This output will implement river regulation (i) agro-forestry and fruit farming development, including smart irrigation system comprising the provision of irrigation and ancillary facilities, construction of peripheral rainfall harvest system and automated fertilizer mixture in drip irrigation system; (ii) river regulation works in Danjiang Henan-Hubei section and Xi River as well as Dongfeng canal reconstruction; and (iii) drainage system improvement and waterlogging alleviation including improvement of road drainage, reconstruction of drainage, sewage interception, and desilting and restoration of rivers in low-lying flood prone areas. 8 Output 3: Rural water services implemented. This output will implement (i) rural wastewater management including construction of centralized and distributed wastewater treatment facilities and distribution system in urban and rural areas; (ii) urban and rural solid waste management including construction of food-waste and municipal sludge collaborative treatment center; and (iii) water supply for urban and rural areas including construction of water intake, treatment plants, transmission and distribution. 9 All ADB projects are screened for climate risks. ADB will do preliminary screening to identify the climate risk level at the project concept phase. For the projects at “medium” or “high” risk, the climate risk and vulnerability assessment, evaluation of adaptation options, and co- financing arrangements are required by ADB at the project preparation phase. A detailed climate risk and vulnerability assessment [Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA)] is carried out for projects classified as medium or high risk during project preparation.1 This Climate Changes, Impacts, Risks and Adaptation Assessment Report is a part of the Report of Preparing Environmental and Rural Development Projects - Henan Xichuan Integrated Ecological Protection and Environmental Improvement Project. 1 https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/148796/climate-risk-management-adb-projects.pdf TA-9753 PRC: Preparing Environmental and Rural Development Projects - Henan Xichuan Integrated Ecological Protection and Environmental Improvement Project - Consulting Firm (53042-001) NAREE International Limited (Hong Kong) and NAREE Consulting Limited (Beijing) / September, 2020 Final Report NᴧREE 3. Literature Review Linked with Climate change in Hanjiang Basin and Henan Province 10 Climate change in Hanjiang Basin: During 1951-2003, historical data show no trend for precipitation in most parts of the Hanjiang basin (Figure 2). Temperature trends indicate a large scale climate warming, especially during winter when entering the 1990s. The spatial distribution patterns of temperature trends vary seasonally. The temporal trends of runoff are the result of the combined effect of precipitation and temperature. Significant decreasing trends are found for mean annual, spring and winter runoff. Future climate changes projected by Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the 21st century for the period of 2021–2050 show that both temperature and precipitation will increase in the Danjiangkou reservoir basin. Simulated results indicate that during 2021–2050 annual runoff will increase by 2.1~ 8.2% when the scenarios predicted by 3 GCMs. Sensitivity analysis shows that 1℃ and 2℃ increase in temperature reduce mean annual runoff by about 3.5% and 7%, respectively. A decrease/increase of mean monthly precipitation by 20 and 10% decreases/increases mean annual runoff by about 30%and 15%, respectively2. (a) (b) Figure 2. Observed changing trend in (a) annual precipitation and (b) annual mean temperature in Hanjiang Basin during 1951-2003. 11 Drought and flood impacts on agriculture in Henan Province. In the past 50 years, the arid area in Henan has increased and the area of floods has mildly decreased. The increasing area range of arid zone has far exceeded the reduction of flood area. Since the mid- 1980s, the frequency and intensity of both disasters have obviously increased. During 49 years of observation from 1957 to 2005, there was a slight increase trend in rainstorm days and heavy rain days, and a decreasing trend of moderate rain day and light rain day in Henan Province. The trend of drought and flood disasters in Henan Province in the past 30 years is as follows3. 12 Drought. In the past 30 years (1981-2011), it was observed that widespread of drought in Henan Province took place every 10 years, and the occurrence of drought was in line with the rising trend of the reduced rainfall. The area affected by major agrometeorological disasters was 1520.75km2 per year, accounting for 48.61% of the total grain area of the province.
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