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Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 06 May 2021 08:21 BST Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article AIB Group Q121 IMS reiterates full year guidance but Company Events looks better on impairments, CET1 06-May AIB Group; Q121 Trading Update Air France-KLM; Q121 Results Glanbia Strong start to the year, upgrading by at least 2% Barratt Developments; Q321 Trading Update Derwent London; Q1 Update Mondi Solid start to the year with positive signs on all Glanbia; Q1 update HeidelbergCement; Q121 Results prices Mondi; Q121 Trading Update HeidelbergCement Q121 – Guidance maintained 07-May IAG; Q121 Results 11-May IRES REIT; AGM Tyman Trading update underpins further upside to share 13-May Greggs; Q121 Trading Update Hammerson; Final Div Payment Date price Morses Club; FY20 Results Derwent London Activity increasing as London re-opens Economic View Recovery already underway – AIB Services PMI Irish Economic View Robust tax revenues offset spending Economic Events overshoots Ireland First Derivatives Kx announces Microsoft partnership 06-May Industrial Production Mar21 13-May CPI Apr21 United Kingdom 06-May CIPS Services PMI Apr21 BoE Official Bank Rate 07-May CIPS Construction PMI Apr21 10-May Halifax House Prices Apr21 12-May Construction Output Mar21 GDP Mar21 Industrial Production Mar21 Trade Balance Mar21 United States Europe This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers UC, trading as “Goodbody”, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, Goodbody is authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Goodbody is a member of Euronext Dublin and the London Stock Exchange. Goodbody is a member of the FEXCO group of companies. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate, Goodbody Stockbrokers Goodbody Morning Wrap AIB Group Q121 IMS reiterates full year guidance but looks better on impairments, CET1 AIB publishes a Q1 IMS this morning. It returned to profit in Q1, it reiterates guidance for Recommendation: Buy the full year (ex-inorganic initiatives) and is confident on the outlook and its ability to meet Closing Price: €2.50 its medium-term targets. Q1 income is -4% yoy (NII -13%, other income +36%), costs are flat and impairments at c.35bps look a bit better than expected, as is CET1 at 15.8%. Eamonn Hughes +353-1-641 9442 [email protected] Total income is -4% in Q1. Whilst NII -13% yoy, AIB notes deposits at negative rates rose from €4.7bn to €8bn at end Q1, to €10bn currently nor is there any benefit from the €4bn TLTRO drawdown last year pending verification on benchmarks (also open to considering June TLTRO with a €9bn total limit). NIM was 1.66% in Q1 (Q420 exit NIM was 1.70%) and we note the pick-up again in liquid assets (every €1bn c.2bps NIM). AIB reiterates its prior full year NII guidance of a “moderate decline” (we are -4.5%). Other income was +36% in Q1 with fees & commissions of €103m in line with a normalised run rate, whilst there were some positive valuation items. It reiterates 2021 other income to be broadly flat (prior to any inorganic deals). Costs were flat in Q1 (staff numbers -1%) and AIB reiterates full year guidance which is for a “marginal decline” (we have -1%). On impairments, AIB notes a Q1 charge of c.€50m or 35bps annualised – prior full year guidance was c.40bps. It will make a fuller assessment at the H1 results, but given the reopening of the economy, we suspect investors will reduce forecasts a bit. Finally, guided exceptional costs of €250m are in line. AIB’s CET1 ratio was +20bps in Q1 to 15.8% (Q1 profit and positive calendar provisioning impact). New lending was -7% in Q1 to €2.3bn, the toughest yoy quarter, so should improve from here. Gross loans were €59.2bn at end Q1 which is only a modest €0.3bn decline in Q1, bearing in mind the NPE sale. On the mortgage side, there is no market share data, but AIB notes a strong applications and approval pipeline. SME lending was +3%. Deposits were c.€84.5bn in March, so +€2.5bn in Q1. NPEs were down in Q1 to €3.8bn, or 6.5% (FY20 7.3%), with the decline reflecting the Q1 portfolio sale, with minimal net flow to Stage 3 in Q1. On strategic priorities, negotiations with Natwest have “progressed constructively”, the regulatory approval process for Goodbody is underway and the JV with Great Westco is “progressing well”. Elsewhere, AIB is the first Irish company to commit to the World Economic Forum Stakeholder Capitalism metrics, plus is now ranked No. 53 of 1,047 banks with Sustainalytics. Trading is in line with expectations and AIB reiterates full year guidance, so forecast changes are likely to be minimal. Our first impression is that we are likely to leave income and costs unchanged, though will likely lower our impairments charge. Overall, a solid Q1 update, with the commentary hinting at more positive This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates momentum as the economy reopens. Home… Page 2 06 May. 21 Goodbody Morning Wrap Glanbia Strong start to the year, upgrading by at least 2% Glanbia has released a robust Q1 trading update in which Group revenues increased by Recommendation: Hold 10.5% constant currency (c.c.). Noticeably, performance in North America and Asia Pacific, Closing Price: €12.52 across both GPN (c.17.6% branded revenue growth) and GN (Nutritional solutions volumes +10.3%) saw a marked improvement in the period. Jason Molins +353-1-641 9141 [email protected] GPN reported LFL branded revenue growth of 17.6% (vols c.13%) with good volume growth in Americas and International. Within the Americas, volume growth was seen across a number of channels with a strong performance in ON helping offset weakness in Slimfast. Internationally, a strong recovery in Asia Pacific helped offset the impact from COVID restrictions in the European business. While some of the strength may be due to inventory rebuilds, it is encouraging that underlying demand has remained strong into Q2. The GPN transformation programme remains on target to deliver on the FY22 EBITA margin target of 12-13%. Furthermore, it will support increased brand investment which, coupled with innovation and further easing of COVID-related restrictions, is expected to drive further volume growth for the rest of the year across both regions. Other key highlights include; i) Nutritional Solutions achieved LFL revenue growth of c.10% predominantly driven by non-dairy operations though demand for dairy solutions was solid through the period; ii) US cheese was also robust with volumes up 13% driven by robust end-market demand and the benefit of the new JV in Michigan which will be fully commissioned during Q2; and iii) Glanbia has continued to manage its cash flows extremely well with Q1 net debt coming in at €499m, down from €690.1m a year ago, and leaves leverage at c.1.5x. The strong Q1 performance is also despite more challenging prior year comparatives and leaves Glanbia well positioned for the remainder of the year, particularly given the current backdrop on the vaccine rollout and reopening of markets. In that context, and following the strong start to the year, Glanbia now expects FY21 adj EPS to be at the upper end of the previously guided 6% to 12% c.c. growth range. Consequently, we are likely to upgrade our FY21 forecast by at least 2% from our initial expectation of c.9% constant currency EPS growth. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates Page 3 06 May. 21 Goodbody Morning Wrap Mondi Solid start to the year with positive signs on all prices Mondi has reported Q121 group EBITDA of €353m (-8%) which is broadly in line with our Recommendation: Hold forecasts. Management notes strong demand in the packaging business along with higher Closing Price: £19.89 prices in containerboard and strong cost control during the period. Encouragingly there are positive signs for pricing on sack kraft, corrugated box and UFP. These will help offset the David O'Brien +353-1-641 9230 cost headwinds from OCC, resins, transport and energy. The ramp up of the kraft top david.a.o'[email protected] machine in Ruzomberok and the speciality kraft paper machine in Steti are going well. The key highlights are; (i) In corrugated demand is described as very strong driven by ecommerce, FMCG and industrial applications which has driven “significant volume growth”. Good progress has been made con corrugated box prices to date; (ii) In Flexible packaging strong order books and tight copnditions is underpinning a push to increase kraft paper and bag prices for customers not utilising either semi or annual foxied contracts; (iii) In UFP volumes have improved sequentially and while prices are down yoy management notes that price increases were implemented at teh end of the quarter across all key markets. Overall, management comments that the group is well placed to make progress in line with its expectations with contribution from capital programmes and focus on cost takeout mitigating input cost pressures and currency headwinds. This is a solid update from Mondi we believe the bias to our forecasts is to the upside for FY21 and particularly FY22. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Investment Banking and its affiliates Page 4 06 May.