Hypnotism Revisited | Tragedy of Our Commons | Ambrose Bierce | Pet | Best Explanations

Vol. 45 No. 2 | March/April 2021

The Bizarre Quniverse of QAnon Conspiracies Stephanie Kemmerer

Science: Truth’s Gold Standard Behe, Bias, and Bears (Oh My!) Nathan Lents Philosophical Magisterium? Charles H. Jones & Massimo Pigliucci A Detective Tragedy Benjamin Radford Committee for Skeptical Inquiry | www.skepticalinquirer.org

Robyn E. Blumner,* President and CEO Joe Nickell, Senior Research Fellow Benjamin Radford, Research Fellow Barry Karr,* Executive Director Massimo Polidoro, Research Fellow Richard Wiseman, Research Fellow

Fellows

James E. Alcock*, psychologist, York Univ., Toronto Krista Federspiel, medical journalist, author, Jere Lipps, Museum of Paleontology, Univ. of CA, Benjamin Radford, investigator; research fellow, Marcia Angell MD, former editor-in-chief, folklorist Berkeley Committee for Skeptical Inquiry New England Journal of Kevin Folta, molecular biologist. Professor and Elizabeth Loftus, professor of , Univ. Amardeo Sarma*, chairman, GWUP, Germany Kimball Atwood IV MD, physician, author, Newton, chairman of the Horticultural Department of CA, Irvine Richard Saunders, Life Member of Australian MA at the University of Florida William M. London, professor of public health, Skeptics; educator; investigator; podcaster; , professional magician/mentalist Barbara Forrest, professor of , California State University, Los Angeles Sydney, consultant/producer SE Louisiana Univ. Daniel Loxton, writer, artist, editor, Skeptic Joe Schwarcz, director, McGill Office for

Stephen Barrett MD, psychiatrist, author, consumer Andrew Fraknoi, astronomer, U. of San Francisco magazine and Society advocate, Pittsboro, NC *, science writer, editor, Skeptical Michael E. Mann, distinguished Professor of Eugenie C. Scott*, physical anthropologist, former Robert Bartholomew, sociologist and investigative Inquirer Atmospheric Sciences and director of the executive director (retired), National Center for journalist, Botany College in Auckland, Christopher C. French, professor, department of Systems Sciences Center at the Pennsylvania State Science Education New Zealand. psychology, and head of the University Seth Shostak, senior astronomer, SETI Institute, Jann Johnson Bellamy, attorney, writer for Science- Research Unit, Goldsmiths College, Univ. of London David Marks, psychologist, City Univ., London Mountain View, CA Based Medicine blog, Tallahassee, FL , writer, podcaster, public speaker Mario Mendez-Acosta, journalist and science Simon Singh, science writer; broadcaster; UK Kenny Biddle, investigator, writer, podcaster, public Luigi Garlaschelli, chemist, Università di Pavia writer, Mexico City Dick Smith, film producer, publisher, Terrey Hills, speaker (Italy), research fellow of CICAP, the Italian skeptics Kenneth R. Miller, professor of , Brown Univ. N.S.W., Australia Irving Biederman, psychologist, Univ. of Southern group David Morrison, space scientist, NASA Ames Keith E. Stanovich, cognitive psychologist; CA Maryanne Garry, professor, School of Psychology, Research Center professor of human development and applied Sandra Blakeslee, science writer; author; New York Victoria Univ. of Wellington, New Zealand Richard A. Muller, professor of physics, Univ. of psychology, Univ. of Toronto Times science correspondent , founder and leader of the Guerrilla CA, Berkeley , linguist; skeptical investigator; , visiting lecturer, Univ. of the West on Wikipedia (GSoW) project Joe Nickell, senior research fellow, CSI writer; podcaster of England, Bristol Thomas Gilovich, psychologist, Cornell Univ. Jan Willem Nienhuys, mathematician, Waalre, The Jill Cornell Tarter, astronomer, SETI Institute, Mark Boslough, physicist, Sandia National David H. Gorski, cancer surgeon and researcher at Netherlands Mountain View, CA Laboratories (retired), Albuquerque, New Mexico Barbara Ann Karmanos Cancer Institute and chief Lee Nisbet, philosopher, Medaille College Carol Tavris, psychologist and author, Los Angeles, Henri Broch, physicist, Univ. of Nice, France of breast surgery section, Wayne State University Matthew C. Nisbet, professor of communication, CA Jan Harold Brunvand, folklorist, professor emeritus School of Medicine public policy, and public affairs, Northeastern David E. Thomas, physicist and mathematician, of English, Univ. of Utah Wendy M. Grossman, writer; founder and first University, Boston Socorro, NM Sean B. Carroll, molecular geneticist, vice editor, The Skeptic magazine (UK) MD, assistant professor of Neil deGrasse Tyson, astrophysicist and director, president for science education, Howard Hughes Susan Haack, Cooper Senior Scholar in Arts and neurology, Yale Univ. School of Medicine Hayden Planetarium, Medical Institute, Madison, WI Sciences, professor of philosophy and professor of Bill Nye, science educator and television host, James Underdown, writer, investigator, founder Thomas R. Casten, expert; founder and Law, Univ. of Miami Nye Labs of Investigations Group (CFIIG), chair, Recycled Energy Development, Westmont, IL MD, family physician, investigator, James E. Oberg, science writer Los Angeles Timothy Caulfield, professor of health law and Puyallup, WA , physician, author, researcher, professor, Joseph Uscinski, political scientist, University policy, University of Alberta, David J. Helfand, professor of astronomy, Columbia Univ. of Pennsylvania of Miami K.C. Cole, science writer, author, professor, Univ. Univ. , geologist, science historian, Bertha Vazquez, science teacher, director of the of Southern California’s Annenberg School of Terence M. Hines, prof. of psychology, Pace Univ., professor, Harvard University Teacher Institute for Evolutionary Science (TIES) Journalism Pleasantville, NY Loren Pankratz, psychologist, Oregon Health Indre Viskontas, cognitive neuroscientist, tv and John Cook, Center for Climate Change Douglas R. Hofstadter, professor of human Sciences Univ. podcast host, and opera singer, San Francisco, CA Communication, George Mason University, Virginia understanding and cognitive science, Indiana Univ. Jay M. Pasachoff, Field Memorial Professor of Marilyn vos Savant, Parade magazine contributing , literary and cultural critic, Gerald Holton, Mallinckrodt Professor of Physics Astronomy and director of the Hopkins Observatory, editor professor emeritus of English, Univ. of CA, Berkeley and professor of history of science, Harvard Univ. Williams College Stuart Vyse*, psychologist, professor, author Richard Dawkins, zoologist, Oxford Univ. , folklorist, cultural anthropologist, Natalia Pasternak, microbiologist, writer, president, Steven Weinberg, professor of physics and Geoffrey Dean, technical editor, Perth, Australia and former editor in chief of the UK-based Instituto Questão de Ciência, São Paulo, Brazil astronomy, Univ. of at Austin; Nobel laureate Cornelis de Jager, professor of astrophysics, Univ. magazine The Skeptic John Paulos, mathematician, Temple Univ. Mick West, writer, podcaster, investigator, , of Utrecht, the Netherlands Ray Hyman*, psychologist, Univ. of Oregon Clifford A. Pickover, scientist, author, editor, IBM Folsom, CA Daniel C. Dennett, Univ. professor and Austin B. Stuart D. Jordan, NASA astrophysicist emeritus, T.J. Watson Research Center E.O. Wilson, Univ. professor emeritus, organismic Fletcher Professor of Philosophy, director of science advisor to Center for Inquiry Office of Public Massimo Pigliucci, professor of philosophy, City and evolutionary biology, Harvard Univ. Center for Cognitive Studies at Tufts Univ. Policy, Washington, D.C. Univ. of New York–Lehman College Richard Wiseman, psychologist, Univ. of Ann Druyan, writer and producer; CEO, Cosmos Barry Karr, executive director, Committee for Steven Pinker, cognitive scientist, Harvard Univ. Hertfordshire, England Studios, Ithaca, NY Skeptical Inquiry, Amherst, New York Massimo Polidoro, science writer, author, executive Benjamin Wolozin, professor, department of Sanal Edamaruku, president, Indian Rationalist Edwin C. Krupp, astronomer, director, Griffith director of CICAP, Italy pharmacology, Boston Univ. School of Medicine Association and Rationalist International Observatory, Los Angeles, CA James L Powell, geochemist, author, executive Edzard Ernst, professor, Complementary Medicine, Lawrence Kusche, science writer director, National Physical Science Consortium Peninsula Medical School, Universities of Exeter Stephan Lewandowsky, psychologist, researcher, Anthony R. Pratkanis, professor of psychology, and Plymouth, Exeter, UK Univ. of Bristol, United Kingdom Univ. of California, Santa Cruz Kenneth Feder, professor of anthropology, Lin Zixin, former editor, Science and Technology Donald R. Prothero, paleontologist, geologist, author, *Member, CSI Executive Council Central Connecticut State Univ. Daily (China) National History Museum of Los Angeles County (Affiliations given for identification only.)

The (ISSN 0194-6730) is published bimonthly by Manuscripts, letters, books for review, and editorial inquiries should Subscriptions and changes of address should be addressed to: the Center for Inquiry in association with the Committee for Skeptical be sent to Kendrick Frazier, Editor, Skeptical Inquirer, email: kend- SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, P.O. Box 703, Amherst, NY 14226-0703 or call Inquiry, P.O. Box 703, Amherst, NY 14226. Printed in U.S.A. Periodicals [email protected]. Mail: 944 Deer Drive NE, Albuquerque, NM toll-free 1-800-634-1610 (outside the U.S. call 716-636-1425). Old postage paid at Buffalo, NY, and at additional mailing offices. 87122. Please consult our Guide for Authors for style, reference, and address as well as new are necessary for change of address, with Subscription prices: one year (six issues), $35; two years, $60; three submittal instructions. It is on our website at www.skepticalinquirer.org/ ten weeks advance notice. Skeptical Inquirer subscribers may not years, $84; single issue, $5.99. Canadian and foreign orders: Payment article-submission-guidelines/. speak on behalf of CSI or the Skeptical Inquirer. in U.S. funds drawn on a U.S. bank must accompany orders; please Articles, reports, reviews, and letters published in the SKEPTICAL Postmaster: Send changes of address to Skeptical Inquirer, P.O. Box add US$10 per year for shipping. Canadian and foreign customers are INQUIRER represent the views and work of individual authors. Their 703, Amherst, NY 14226-0703. encouraged to use Visa or Master Card. publication does not necessarily constitute an endorsement by CSI or Inquiries from the media and the public about the work of the its members unless so stated. Committee should be made to Barry Karr, Executive Director, CSI, P.O. Copyright ©2021 by the Center for Inquiry and the Committee for A PROGRAM OF Box 703, Amherst, NY 14226-0703. Tel.:716-636-1425. Fax: 716-636- Skeptical Inquiry. All rights reserved. 1733. Email: [email protected]. Skepti­ ­cal In­quir­er March/April 2021 | Volume 45 No. 2

FEATURES COLUMNS 32 FROM THE EDITOR Fear for Our Future—or Hope?...... 4 Life, the Quniverse, and Everything, Part 1 NEWS AND COM­MENT Nashville Christmas Bomber an Aliens-and- QAnon is the ultimate —the mothership; the “Choose-Your-Own Adventure” saucerful of Lizard-People Conspiracy Theorist / NAS codes and secrets. Some ex-followers help our Report on ‘’ Mired in investigator examine its dangers and . Controversy / Like Crop Circles, Mysterious Monoliths Appear—and Disappear / STEPHANIE KEMMERER Physics Professor, Author Robert L. Park: An Appreciation / The Blakeslee Files: A Science-Writing Family's 38 Treasure Trove / CFI Libraries Redesigns Science: The Gold Standard of Truth Website...... 5 Wanton attacks on scientific truths and even the INVESTIGATIVE FILES existence of truth itself are profoundly troubling. Science’s history is a spectacular cascade of Incredible Vanishings and the Case of truths. Ambrose Bierce JOE NICKELL...... 14 RICHARD DAWKINS

REALITY IS THE BEST MEDICINE Revisited 41 HARRIET HALL...... 17 Behe, Bias, and Bears (Oh My!) BEHAVIOR & Another swing and a miss for The Tragedy of Our Commons creationism. STUART VYSE...... 20 NATHAN H. LENTS SKEPTICAL INQUIREE The Pointlessness of Pet Acupuncture BENJAMIN RADFORD...... 25 47 NEW AND NOTABLE BOOKS...... 62 Is There a Philosophical Magisterium? LET­TERS TO THE ED­I­TOR...... 63 Some scholars are promoting the idea that phi- losophy studies questions that science cannot. An analysis of the finds otherwise. COMMENTARY CHARLES H. JONES Facts, Theories, and Best Explanations PETER J. MARSTON...... 27 51 Continuity, Not Magisterium—A REMEMBRANCE Response to Jones The Many Valuable Contributions of Science and philosophy exist on a continuum with Scott O. Lilienfeld, Scientist, Skeptic, areas of overlap and reciprocal aid. Each informs and Colleague the other—or should. D. ALAN BENSLEY...... 29 MASSIMO PIGLIUCCI REVIEW

54 Fresh Thinking or Exploitation? JANYCE L. BOYNTON...... 60 Psychic Detectives and the Tragedy of Harley Dilly An Ohio boy’s disappearance from a small town around Christmas 2019 was a genuine mystery. It eventually garnered the attention of national news media—and . BENJAMIN RADFORD Committee for Skeptical Inquiry “... promotes scientific inquiry, critical investigation, and the use of reason in examining controversial and extraordinary claims.”

[ FROM THE EDITOR Skep­ti­cal In­quir­er™ THE MAGA­ ­ZINE FOR SCI­ENCE AND REA­SON

ED­I­TOR Kend­rick Fra­zi­er

Fear for Our Future—or Hope? DEPUTY ED­I­TOR Ben­ja­min Rad­ford MAN­A­GING ED­I­TOR Julia Lavarnway hen podcaster/journalist Stephanie Kemmerer proposed our cover ASSISTANT EDITOR Nicole Scott article on QAnon, I knew little about the phenomenon except for ART DIRECTOR Alexander Nicaise occasional mentions. Once she researched, reported, and submitted it WEBMASTER Marc Kreidler PUB­LISH­ER’S REP­RE­SENT­A­TIVE Bar­ry Karr (she interviewed former QAnon followers, and her article by then had expanded W ED­I­TO­RI­AL BOARD James E. Al­cock, Robyn E. Blumner, to a two-part series), I read the result, “Life, the Quniverse, and Everything,” Harriet Hall, Ray Hy­man, Barry Karr, Elizabeth Loftus, Joe Nickell, Am­ar­deo Sar­ma, Eugenie C. Scott, David E. in disturbed amazement. “Red-pilled,” “black-pilling,” “Q Drops,” “Q crumbs,” Thomas, Leonard Tramiel, Stuart Vyse “,” QAnon aggregator sites—a whole new vocabulary of modern unreal- CON­TRIB­UT­ING ED­I­TORS Harriet Hall, David Morrison, Joe Nickell, Matthew C. Nisbet, Massimo Polidoro, David E. ity. This loose assemblage of the world’s most virulent conspiracy theories is a Thomas, Stuart Vyse, Mick West, Rich­ard Wis­e­man creation of our own times, an ill society. Yet in another way, it is as old as human . She notes that QAnon draws upon ancient hateful tropes and anti-Se- Published in association with

mitic themes going back past the origins of Nazi fascism, the Blood Libel Myth, and the tactic of declaring one’s enemies Satanists. What’s especially scary is, she CHAIR Edward Tabash points out, followers consider themselves heroes—and victims. PRESIDENT AND CEO Robyn E. Blumner And, as we saw in horror on January 6, many QAnon followers were among CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER Barry Karr the hordes who violently invaded the Capitol of the to try to stop COR­PO­RATE COUN­SEL Nicholas J. Little, the Constitutional certification of the duly elected next president. But QAnon Brenton Ver Ploeg SUBSCRIPTION DATA MANAGER Jacalyn Mohr is just one of many hate groups fueled by conspiratorial thinking and irrational COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR Paul Fidalgo beliefs, and we needn’t elevate it to any mythic status over all others. The extreme DI­RECT­OR OF LI­BRAR­IES Tim­o­thy S. Binga elements among them have now shown they pose a threat to and EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, RICHARD DAWKINS FOUNDATION civilized society. FOR REASON & SCIENCE Robyn E. Blumner DIRECTOR OF DEVELOPMENT Everything we scientific skeptics at the Skeptical Inquirer and elsewhere Connie Skingel have studied and warned about for decades—irrationality, delusions, detachment DIRECTOR OF MARKETING Cameron Popp from , magical thinking, wishful thinking, misinformation and disinforma- DIRECTOR, DIGITAL PRODUCT AND STRATEGY tion, the inability (or unwillingness) to distinguish facts from myth, the strong Marc Kreidler DIRECTOR, GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS denial of validated knowledge, the creation and spreading of wild conspiracy Jason Lemieux theories—have been on painful public display for all of us to witness. DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR INQUIRY WEST warned us about this a quarter century ago. In a 1994 CSICOP James Underdown DIRECTOR, TEACHER INSTITUTE keynote address and January/February 1995 Skeptical Inquirer cover article, FOR EVOLUTIONARY SCIENCE he expressed a “foreboding” he had for a future time when “our critical faculties Bertha Vazquez SYSTEM ADMINISTRATOR in steep decline, unable to distinguish between what’s true and what feels good, Cody Hashman we slide, almost without noticing, into superstition and darkness.” BOARD OF DIRECTORS Edward Tabash (chair), Vinod Bhardwaj, David Cowan, Richard Dawkins, Brian Engler, But he was ultimately an optimist (his title was “Wonder and Skepticism”), Kendrick Frazier, Barry A. Kosmin, Bill Maxwell, Y. Sherry Sheng, Julia Sweeney, J. Anderson Thomson Jr., Leonard and we all have to have hope—hope that the wiser leaders of both parties can Tramiel. Honorary: Rebecca Newberger Goldstein, Susan find ways to heal our wounds and restore calm and civility. The successful Jan- Jacoby. uary 20 inauguration, the new president’s healing words and appeals to facts STAFF Jennifer Beahan, Melissa Braun, Matthew Cravatta, Tom Flynn, Roe Giambrone, Aaron Green, Melissa Myers, and truth—and the same from three past presidents (from both parties)—are Paul Paulin, Michael Powell, Vance Vigrass , Shaun White all cause for optimism. In the meantime, science goes on. Scientific discoveries going back years brought the record-quick creation and testing of three vaccines against COVID-19 that may soon bring an end to that scourge. Science is one place where we can always find human . We celebrate its achievements and truth-finding processes. (Richard Dawkins’s fine essay in this issue enlarges on that theme.) We scientific skeptics share in that scientific spirit. At the same time, we apply scientific thinking, , and skeptical inquiry to the whole arena of wayward ideas and popular claims deserving well-informed skeptical scrutiny. This issue of Skeptical Inquirer is filled with relevant examples. —Kendrick Frazier

CFI Mission: The Center for Inquiry strives to foster a secular society based on reason, science, freedom of inquiry, and humanist values. Our Vision: A world where people value evidence and critical thinking, where superstition and prejudice subside, and where science and compassion guide public policy. Our Values: Integrity, Courage, Innovation, Empathy, Learning, and Wonder. 4 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer [ NEWS AND COMMENT

Nashville Christmas Bomber an Aliens-and-Lizard-People Conspiracy Theorist

Benjamin Radford

On Christmas morning 2020 in year in America; up until recently, it was knowledge I have gained is immeasur- downtown Nashville, Tennessee, a the ninth leading cause of death in this able. I now understand everything, and bomb inside a motor home detonated. country, and the suicide rate is higher I mean everything from who/what we Minutes earlier, the RV had been emit- than the homicide rate. really are, to what the known universe ting a voice warning passersby to get Public suicides have often been really is.” Warner also opined that “ev- away, because it would soon explode. used as a medium for social protest. erything is an illusion” and “there is no When it did, Anthony Warner was Frustrated political and social activists such thing as death.” inside and was killed instantly. often see self-immolation as a powerful Warner embraced many wild con- Police recovered a vehicle identifica- tool to bring international attention to spiracy theories, asserting for example tion number from the debris and soon their plight. In the early 1960s, Bud- that extraterrestrials had been attacking realized that the suspect was also the dhist monks in Vietnam famously Earth since September 2011, a month victim—that it was a suicide bombing. themselves on fire in political protest. that “was supposed to be the end game Public concerns and rumors to the con- Though rarer, the practice continues for the planet.” The attacks were some- trary, authorities found no evidence that today; in 2018, prominent gay rights how thwarted but had continued; this the incident or Warner were linked to lawyer David Buckel set himself on fire is not widely known because, Warner terrorism, but the question of motive in a Brooklyn park, hoping the media asserted, the U.S. government and news remained. Warner, age sixty-three, was attention from his grisly suicide would media had conspired for years to cover an unmarried semi-recluse who worked draw attention to climate change. up the attacks. As to why they would do as an technology specialist. According to Jordan Frieman of CBS that, his answer was simple: the world There is nothing unusual about a News, several days before the bomb- is run by a secret of Reptilians, man trying to take his own life; world- ing Warner sent packages to several a race of lizard people. Drawing from wide there are an estimated 10 to 20 acquaintances. They contained many a hodgepodge of pop culture sources million attempted suicides each year. typed pages and thumb drives con- ranging from the satirical sci-fi thriller About 30,000 people die by suicide each taining conspiracy-related videos. “The They Live to conspiracy promoters Alex

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 5 begin to realize the potential you have as a consciousness/soul/spirit, you will begin to harness the abilities you have to produce . Because you are pro- ducing the reality entirely, you are not confined to the laws of physics.” Helder was explicit about the purpose of his se- rial bombings: he wanted to enlighten the world to his beliefs and revealed truths. “I’m doing this because I care … In the end you will know I was telling you the truth anyway. I’m taking very drastic measures in attempt to provide this information to you.” Belief in conspiracy theories cannot be said to have directly caused either Warner’s or Helder’s attacks, though their belief systems surely played a role in these tragedies. Jared Loughner, the gunman who killed six people and in- jured fourteen others including Rep. Gabrielle Giffords in a 2011 Tucson Jones and , Warner wrote summarize Warner’s materials. Ten- shooting, also advocated conspiracy that “They put a switch into the human nessee’s NewsChannel 5, for example, theories, as did Aaron Alexis, a gov- brain so they could walk among us and noted its “decision not to publish them ernment contractor who killed a dozen appear human.” From 9/11 “Truther” in their entirety. We are attempting to people and injured eight others at the conspiracies to moon landing hoaxes, balance shedding light on his Washington Navy Yard in September Warner seems to have embraced a wide prior to the bombing with not giving 2013; he told police that he had been variety of bogus and discredited claims. him unnecessary notoriety.” harassed through a government mind The letter was signed with the name Warner is of course not the first con- control program. Julio, an alias Warner often used; he spiracy theorist to use a bomb to draw Extreme acts of violence can seem is believed to have had a dog by that attention to his beliefs. In May 2002, six to be a logical reaction to conspiracy name that may have also been killed in people were injured when eighteen pipe beliefs. If one sincerely , for the blast. bombs left in mailboxes exploded in example, that a cabal of high-ranking Early speculation was that the , , , , and Democrats are Satanic baby-eating bombing was tied to some terrorism Texas. Luke Helder, a twenty-one-year- pedophiles (see Stephanie Kemmerer’s plot or grievance against AT&T, the of- old college student from Minnesota, article on QAnon in this issue)—then fice building nearest the explosion, pos- was arrested for the bombings, which resorting to violence may seem reason- sibly linked to debunked 5G conspiracy he described as “attention getters.” Hel- able and appropriate. This is especially claims. Investigation is ongoing, but der combined virulent anti-government true when conspiracy theories appeal to as of early January, it seems likely that beliefs with rambling philosophical political extremists who already harbor Warner wanted to publicize his conspir- rants. In a six-page typed letter to a a distrust of the government and a will- acy beliefs. He was well aware that his student newspaper at the University of ingness to take up arms. Christmas morning bomb would draw Wisconsin-Madison, Helder discussed Of course, most violent people are attention (a neighbor recalled Warner his belief in various conspiracy and not conspiracy theorists, most mentally saying ominously that “Nashville and topics. A friend of his was ill people are not violent, and most con- the world is never going to forget me”) quoted by ABC News as saying that spiracy believers are not violent. Though and that the conspiracy-riddled mani- Helder “seemed really obsessed about conspiracy beliefs do not cause violence, festos he sent to people on December and death and the they can give a name and form to gener- 23 would come to light. fact that death really doesn’t mean an alized rage and helplessness and set the Recognizing the media paradox of end to existence.” stage for violent actions. trying to report on Warner’s beliefs Helder, eerily echoed by Warner, while not giving them undue attention, wrote that each person can create his Benjamin Radford is the deputy editor of some news outlets decided to merely or her own reality, and that “once you the Skeptical Inquirer.

6 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer [ NEWS AND COMMENT

NAS Report on ‘Havana Syndrome’ Mired in Controversy

Robert Bartholomew

History is the arbiter of controversy. have never been made public. University of —Lord Acton The NAS panel, which was commis- sioned by the State Department, wrote Pennsylvania bio- The prestigious National Academy of that pulsed radio frequency energy was engineer Kenneth Sciences (NAS) has released its findings the most likely cause, as it is consistent into what sickened dozens of American with “many of the distinctive and acute Foster views any link Embassy diplomats in Cuba starting signs, symptoms, and observations re- between the Frey effect in late 2016 (dubbed “Havana Syn- ported by DOS employees.” The com- drome”). The panel reached no defin- mittee observed that “The acute initial, and Havana Syndrome itive conclusion but found that pulsed sudden-onset, distinctive, and unusual as nonsensical. radiofrequency (RF) radiation, a.k.a. di- symptoms and signs are difficult to as- rected microwave energy, was the most cribe to psychological and social factors” likely cause. Committee members were (National Academy of Sciences 2020, ing] alterations in brain functioning” hampered by a lack of information due 2). Most of the affected diplomats re- (National Academy of Sciences 2020, to privacy concerns and government se- ported hearing strange sounds before 19–20). crecy. They also could not rule out the feeling unwell. None of the incidents There are several problems with the possibility of took place at the American Embassy microwave explanation. but considered it unlikely. They said but instead at one of two major Havana University of Pennsylvania bioen- they had difficulty assessing the psy- hotels, diplomat homes, and an apart- gineer Kenneth Foster views any link chological explanation because there ment complex. between the Frey effect and Havana was “no epidemiological evidence about In gravitating toward the RF expla- Syndrome as nonsensical. “It is just a patterns of social contacts” (National nation, the panel found the literature totally incredible explanation for what Academy of Sciences 2020). on the “Frey effect” compelling. It was happened to these diplomats. … It’s This case has been steeped in con- first described by American biophysicist just not possible. The idea that someone troversy ever since the State Depart- Allen Frey in 1961 when he observed could beam huge amounts of microwave ment first acknowledged the episode at that pulsed microwave beams directed energy at people and not have it be ob- a press briefing on August 9, 2017. A at a person’s head could produce click- vious defies credibility. There’s nothing central problem has been a lack of trans- ing sounds. The NAS report states that behind it. You might as well say little parency; to date, the U.S. government “If a Frey-like effect can be induced on green men from Mars were throwing has denied Freedom of Information Act central tissue responsi- darts of energy,” he said (Hurley 2019, requests on the subject, and investiga- ble for space and motion information 44). tions by both the Centers for Disease processing, it likely would induce simi- The mysterious sounds that pre- Control and Prevention and the FBI larly idiosyncratic responses … [includ- ceded the “attacks” were remarkably var-

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 7 ied. Some said they were high pitched; about a third of the subjects had suf- about to be published and that it was others described them as low pitched. fered hearing loss. However, when the focused on a psychogenic explanation. The report made no mention that in study was published and the hearing Another curious twist took place over a dozen instances where diplomats tests were conducted, just two people soon after the panel was formed. Profes- recorded the incidents each was later were determined to have experienced sor of the Department identified as the sound of insects—most diminished hearing—both of whom of Psychological Medicine at Kings notably crickets and cicadas (Baloh and had pre-existing hearing loss prior to College in London gave an interview in Bartholomew 2020, 13–15). Even the going to Cuba. The patients thought which he expressed the view that mass time between hearing the sounds and they had suffered hearing damage, but psychogenic illness was the most likely feeling symptoms varied dramatically. tests proved otherwise (Hoffer et al. cause. Shortly thereafter, he was re- For instance, in January 2018, State De- 2019; Baloh and Bartholomew 2020, moved from the panel (Wessely 2020). partment Medical Director Dr. Charles 31). In light of these circumstances, Rosenfarb told the Senate Foreign Re- it would not be unreasonable to ask lations Committee that the symptoms The Omission of Pivotal Evidence whether political forces may have been occurred “within minutes to hours of at work in steering the publicly accept- the event” (Senate Foreign Relations The panel’s assertion that they could able explanations. Time (and the antic- Committee 2018). not adequately assess the psychogenic ipated release of Freedom of Informa- Another issue involves the array of hypothesis due to a lack of data is tion documents) will likely bring clarity. perplexing. No less than three separate symptoms that were reported, including References headache; ear pain and pressure; fatigue; reports highlighting the social pattern- nausea; dizziness; memory problems; ing of the outbreak were absent from Baloh, Robert W., and Robert E. Bartholomew. 2020. Havana Syndrome: Mass Psychogenic confusion; disorientation; trouble walk- the study. Two lengthy articles detailing Illness and the Real Story Behind the Embassy ing, sleeping, and focusing their eyes; this patterning were published by inves- Mystery and . Cham, Switzerland: sensitivity to sound; tinnitus; pain; dif- tigative journalists Tim Golden and Copernicus Books. Golden, Tim, and Sebastian Rotella. 2018. The ficulty concentrating; pressure; hearing Sebastian Rotella (Golden and Rotella strange case of American diplomats in Cuba: loss; and concussion-like symptoms. 2018; Golden and Rotella 2019). A As the mystery deepens, so do divisions in Most of these complaints are reported third study—the only book to be pub- Washington. ProPublica (November 9). ———. 2019. The sound and the fury: Inside the every day in doctors’ offices, while con- lished to date on Havana Syndrome— mystery of the Havana Embassy. ProPublica cussion-like symptoms have been as- also described how the outbreaks spread (February 14). sociated with long-term (Baloh through the diplomatic community Hoffer, Michael, et al. 2019. Acute findings in an acquired neurosensory dysfunction. and Bartholomew 2020, 59–70). In one (Baloh and Bartholomew 2020). The Laryngoscope Investigative Otolaryngology study of affected diplomats that was State Department was aware as early 4(1): 124–131. leaked to the media, it was reported that as December 2019 that the book was Hurley, Dan. 2019. The diplomat’s disorder. Magazine (May 19): 40–45, 71. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. An Assessment of Illness in U.S. Government Employees and Their Families at Overseas Embassies. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. Senate Foreign Relations Committee. 2018. Attacks on U.S. diplomats in Cuba: Response and oversight. US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Video of the complete hearing published at https://www.c-span. org/video/?439474-1/state-department-offi- cials-testify-attacks-us-diplomats-cuba. Wessely, Simon. 2020. Personal communication with author (December 8).

Robert Bartholomew is a sociologist and investigative writer who has studied mass hysteria, social , folkore, and the paranormal. He is also an Honorary Senior Lecturer in the Department of Psycholog- ical Medicine at Auckland University; his most recent book (with Robert Baloh) is Havana Syndrome.

8 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer [ NEWS AND COMMENT

Like Crop Circles, Mysterious Monoliths Appear—and Disappear

Benjamin Radford

In November 2020, state biologists sur- well. Soon after the first crop circles veying wild bighorn sheep by helicop- began appearing in the 1970s in the ter in San Juan County, Utah, noticed English countryside, they garnered something odd in a remote sandstone much attention and publicity, which in canyon: a triangular metal pillar about turn spawned more people who said, ten feet tall. “Hey, those are really cool. I’ll bet some They later visited the curiosity on friends and I could do that”—and sure foot and took photos, soon spawning in- enough they could (and did). The skill ternational headlines and internet buzz. involved in both types of art varies of Comparisons to the obelisk in the sci- course by the artist, but the basic forms ence fiction classic 2001: A Space Odyssey of crop circles (circles and rectangles) inevitably arose, along with suggestions aren’t difficult to create (see “Legend (most surely satirical) that it was the of the Mowing Devil,” SI, November/ work of aliens. Internet sleuths compar- December 2020). ing archive satellite images discovered Several of these mystery monoliths that it had been placed there some time (such as those in Pittsburgh) were later in late 2016 and had not been noticed. revealed to be part of a publicity or mar- Ten days after it was first discov- keting stunt; this too has a precedence ered—and after a stream of curiosity in crop circles. Several prominent crop seekers made pilgrimages there—it circles were later revealed to have been was gone. Several men arrived under commissioned for marketing campaigns, cover of darkness to dismantle and re- including a mysterious 310-foot-diam- move the piece, which was revealed to eter design that appeared in California have been hollow and constructed of in 2013, created for computer graphics plywood. They later stated that it had company Nvidia. been removed to protect the fragile local Just as it is a mistake to assume that ecosystem from gawkers. The work was all crop circles were created by the same at first attributed by some to artist John person or team, the same is true of the McCracken (who died in 2011), though monoliths. Indeed, several of the mono- upon closer inspection doubts arose. As lith makers were identified. In early De- of this writing, the creator has not been cember 2020, four artists and fabricators definitively established, but whoever he/ came forward and acknowledged that a she/they are, they started quite a stir. stainless steel monolith that appeared Within a month, dozens of these atop California’s Pine Mountain was structures (colloquially referred to as their work, intended as “a piece of guer- “monoliths”) appeared at different rilla art.” It’s likely that in the coming places around the world, seemingly months more creators will come for- every few days, including at Britain’s Isle theories about the origin of crop circles, ward or be revealed. of Wight; Romania; San Luis Obispo, the only proven cause is humans. Just Both crop circles and these mystery California; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; like the monolith installations, crop monoliths are intended to create delight, near the Joshua Tree National Park; circles appear overnight—or at least intrigue, controversy, and attention. And Spain; Switzerland; Belgium; Paraguay; when no one is watching—and like the basic reason for both is the same: Germany; and other countries. the monoliths, crop circles are a form Why does anyone create art? L’art pour Though it may not be obvious at first of public art, like pieces by Banksy or l’art. Call the monoliths what you like: glance, many parallels to the crop cir- another graffiti artist. And, of course, fad, hoax, stunt, copycat, prank, art. Per- cle phenomenon are apparent. In both both were attributed to extraterrestrial haps their most important function was cases, you have anonymous artists creat- intelligence. diversion for a public weary of pandemic ing public art. While there are countless There’s a strong copycat effect as deaths and political division.

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 9 IN MEMORIAM]

Physics Professor, Voodoo Science Author Robert L. Park: An Appreciation

Kendrick Frazier

in scientific and skeptical circles for his ics Today, calling it a classic work that well-informed and often pungent cri- “has freshness and originality—and tiques of all manner of . an importance and potential for influ- His main forum for years was his popu- ence—perhaps not seen since [Martin] lar “What’s New” weekly email newslet- Gardner’s first.” Matt Nisbet, in an on- ter, initially issued via the APS and later line column on csicop.org on January 1, by the University of Maryland. Recipi- 2001, called it the best skeptic book of ents eagerly watched for it every Friday. 2000. He also noted the irony that one It carried short items of timely scientific of the few critical reviews came in Park’s news and succinct critiques and pithily “hometown newspaper,” the Washing- written personal comments on various ton Post, which thought its attacks on pseudoscientific fads, claims, and beliefs. pseudoscience were “overzealous.” The In 2000, Oxford University Press newspaper later published letters coun- published his Voodoo Science: The Road tering that criticism. from Foolishness to Fraud, a book that Voodoo Science was favorably reviewed a New York Times review said was a in the Skeptical Inquirer by profes- worthy successor to ’s sor and educator Gerry Rising ( July/ classic Fads and Fallacies in the Name of August 2000), who wrote, “If only this Science. book could be made required reading Voodoo Science received widespread for those called upon to make decisions Credit: Carole Cuaresma - Wikipedia acclaim and also generated some contro- about science, our political leaders and versy. Biology professor Ursula Goode- our journalists in particular, how well nough called Park a “national resource.” we would be served.” He enjoyed Park’s Robert L. Park, American physicist Richard Dawkins, in a blurb, wrote, “I outspokenness, which caused some con- and noted critic of pseudoscience (and finished this brilliant book within a day, cerns at the APS, and said he supported fellow of the Committee for Skeptical and then felt such withdrawal symptom Park’s “tongue-in-cheek” disclaimer at- Inquiry), died April 29, 2020, at the age I went right back to the beginning and tached to his weekly reports: “Opinions of eighty-nine. started again.” After reading it, he said, are the author’s and are not necessarily A Phi Beta Kappa graduate of the “you’ll never again waste time or your shared by APS, but they should be.” University of Texas, Park got his PhD money on astrologers, ‘quantum healers’, Rising noted that Park invented the in physics from Brown University. He homeopaths, spoonbenders, perpetual term voodoo science to encompass all four spent most of a decade working as a motion merchants, or versions of bad and dubious science, member of technical staff and later di- fantasists.” each of which Park carefully defined: rector of the Surface Physics Division Physicist N. David Mermin reviewed , , pseudo- at Sandia National Laboratories in Al- it in Nature, calling it “a fascinating science, and fraudulent science. buquerque. In 1974, he took a faculty compendium of tales of human folly” The cover article of that same issue position at the University of Maryland and said Park is “a superb storyteller.” of Skeptical Inquirer was Park’s own Physics Department and was chairman Yet he suggested that historians and “Voodoo Science and the Belief Gene,” from 1975 to 1978. He spent most of philosophers of science would find its adapted by Park from the book. It de- his career at the university. pronouncements about the nature of scribed a physicist’s credulous embrace In 1983, he also became director of science “oversimplified and naïve.” In of transcendental meditation’s claims public information for the Washington, Science, Kenneth R. Foster called Park that it could promote tranquility in D.C., office of the American Physical “an articulate and skeptical voice of Washington, D.C.; discussed at some Society (APS), where he became in- reason about science” and added, “His length the burgeoning “great global volved with the intersection of science essays are delightful to read, and their warming debate,” which Park said is and public policy and all its hazards and critical views may be unfamiliar to many as much about values as it is about sci- foibles. nonscientists.” ence; talked about what science is; and Park was best known and respected I reviewed Voodoo Science in Phys- mentioned “the noisy and unpleasant”

10 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer [ NEWS AND COMMENT

processes of science, which include the The Blakeslee Files: A Science-Writing Family’s need to abandon beliefs in the face of Treasure Trove new evidence. He wrote that “overall the system works amazingly well … the pro- cess transcends the failings of individual Sandra Blakeslee scientists.” Then he returned to “the car- bon dioxide war” and to transcendental meditation’s ridiculous claims of levita- tion, noting that “pseudoscience is never open to scientific challenge.” The Skeptical Inquirer also pub- lished several excerpts over the years from some of Park’s “What’s New” columns, especially on such topics as unfounded fears about RF and EMF radiation (cell phones and the like). Park’s 2008 book Superstition: Belief in the Age of Science (Princeton Univer- sity Press) didn’t get the same attention; it had a slightly different emphasis. Clearly siding with the forces of rea- son in a world of seemingly increasing superstition, he wrote about scientists of faith, natural selection as the secret of life, prayer studies, searching for the soul and the afterlife, the New Age (“in which anything goes”), quantum mysti- cism, and the placebo effect, which gets confused with real medical effects. In the introduction, he wrote poignantly about his experience of getting crushed by a falling oak tree while jogging in Washington’s Rock Creek Park, which nearly killed him. “I would not be tell- ing this story had it not been for recent advances in medicine and technology.” Robert Park’s expertise as a physicist, his experience in Washington-based science and public policy, his clear and pungent writing style, and his courage in calling out nonsense head-on in suc- cinct, topical items helped educate and inform a whole generation of scientists and scientific skeptics. Park, a longtime Committee for Skeptical Inquiry fellow, has been added to CSI’s Pantheon of Skeptics Anti-polio vaccine flyer from the 1950s: An early harbinger of today’s anti-vaccination movement. (see skepticalinquirer.org/panthe- Credit: Sandra Blakeslee on-of-skeptics/). It’s often said that journalism is the science as observed and reported by Kendrick Frazier is a fellow of the Commit- first draft of history. I hope that’s true three generations of science writers— tee for Skeptical Inquiry and editor of the because I possess, in seven full-size my grandfather Howard H. Blakeslee; Skeptical Inquirer. filing cabinets in my garage, an unvar- my father, Alton L. Blakeslee (both nished account of twentieth-century science editors of the Associated Press

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 11 from 1925 to 1985); and myself, Sandy feebleminded. Sexism? You bet. Short CFI Libraries Redesigns Blakeslee, as a science reporter for the skirts contribute to bedlam. Habits that Website New York Times beginning in 1968. make a girl a good employee make her a In this year of coronavirus confine- bad mother. And childbirth anesthetics ment, I’ve taken up the task of sifting kill love for children. Another favorite: Timothy Binga through these twenty-eight file drawers, Your wife’s brain is as good as yours. page by flimsy page, to document what I also found treasures within the five (may I say) prominent science writers enormous folders on polio and the Salk deemed worthy of dissemination. I’ve vaccine. Some of the information is pre- only managed to comb seven drawers scient: doctors must give plasma in the so far, but the findings are fascinating, first few days of infection for the treat- ranging from the important to the ment to work (which apparently holds wacky. true for COVID-19). Some is nonsense, Important topics include the Atomic such as that chiropractors can cure polio. Age and Manhattan Project, the Kinsey And some is prelude to today’s ram- Report, exploration of Antarctica, eu- pant anti-vaxxer movement. A flyer genics, war, and the discovery of an- from the early 1950s (see previous page) tibodies, REM sleep, dendrites, and crows that “fake polio vaccine may kill macrophages. Then there’s a lot on pre- your child.” Its language—inocula- frontal lobotomies, about which Alton tion for immunity is strictly a “theory” used to say, “I’d rather have a bottle in and the practice of inoculation makes front of me than a prefrontal lobotomy.” the body “unclean”—fits right in with During the pandemic, many of the Imaginative stories abound. To wit, current internet screeds on the perils “normal” library functions of research, a hissing sound to shake fog out of air- of vaccination. Reading it makes you teaching, education, reference, etc., have ports, how to sex day-old chicks, and realize nothing much has changed in slowed down significantly. As a result, some odd facts and curious claims, such the scientifically illiterate mindset that we here at the Center for Inquiry as that eyes retain crude images of a prevails in this country. As attacks on Libraries have had an opportunity to murderer after death and U.S. Senators’ catch up on many of the functions that brains are two ounces heavier than Con- take a back seat to other time-sensitive gressmen’s brains. My favorite so far: an It makes you realize duties. admonition to doctors that the so-called One such item was a total reworking bedside manner should not include kiss- nothing much has of our website, CFILibraries.org. I per- ing the patient. There is a lot on X-rays changed in the scientif- sonally managed it in the past but could from the late 1920s to mid-1950s, such not update it often enough to redesign it as you can X-ray newborn babies’ hands ically illiterate mindset to current standards. This past summer, to predict height, treat sinus infections that prevails in this the CFI Web Department took over in children with X-rays, and take X-ray the job and redesigned the entire site. pictures of a living brain via holes drilled country. in the . This past summer, the current COVID-19 vaccines inevita- CFI Web Department Not surprisingly, many bly mount in the disinformation social mediasphere, it may help to recall that redesigned the entire articles are what we such attacks have been around for de- CFI Libraries website. today consider politi- cades. While they can cause real harm, given enough time they also fade into cally incorrect. old filing systems. They converted it to WordPress, which our other websites at CFI use, and made it conform to our other CFI websites’ Not surprisingly, many articles are Sandra Blakeslee, a third-generation design. My job now will be to add more what we today consider politically in- science writer, is retired after forty-five content, such as A to Z lists, bibliogra- correct. Files are sprinkled with reports years with the New York Times. She is a phies, finding aids, and other resources. about (then-clinical) terms, including fellow of the Committee for Skeptical In- I thank the Web Department— morons, imbeciles, idiots, cretins, and the quiry and lives in Santa Fe, New Mexico. Marc Kreidler, Alexander Nicaise, and

12 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer [ NEWS AND COMMENT

Michael Powell—for their hard work critical thinking, evolution, science, Age of Reason. and Lori Roux from Cybertools for the paranormal, pseudoscience, quack The CFI Libraries continues to sup- Libraries, who allowed us to have some medicine, skepticism, the supernatural, port the work of the skeptical move- flexibility with the licensing of our Li- and urban legends. The Libraries also ment and CFI, and, as always, we accept brary Management software to make includes works on philosophy, ratio- donations of library materials (books, the redesign possible. nalism, atheism, agnosticism, religious periodicals, and so forth). For further The CFI Libraries, located at CFI’s criticism, freethought, humanism, and information on how to donate materials headquarters in Amherst, New York, separation of church and state. It also to the libraries, please contact Timothy contains a vast array of books, docu- includes the papers and books of Paul Binga by calling (716) 636-4869 ext. ments, and periodicals, including the Kurtz, Martin Gardner, and Gordon 210 or via email at tbinga@centerforin- John and Mary Frantz Skeptics Li- Stein as well as the Steve Allen Note- quiry.org. brary, the premier library of skepticism books. Its rare books collection includes Timothy Binga is director of the Center for in the world. Topics covered include various first editions of Thomas Paine’s Inquiry Libraries.

Now Available Online! Visit Our Website to Learn More: Subscriptions & Single Issues www.skepticalinquirer.org/subscribe

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 13 [ INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL Joe Nickell, PhD, is CSI’s senior research fellow. A former stage magician and private detec- tive, he has also been a consultant in cases of homicide as well as various mysteries of the "strange" variety.

Incredible Vanishings and the Case of Ambrose Bierce

merican writer Ambrose Bierce (1842–1914?)—in his collection of mystery and hor- rorA tales, Can Such Things Be? (1893)— included a trilogy of stories of incredi- ble disappearances. They are not mere accounts of missing persons such as those that police and private detectives are involved in every day. Instead, in each instance the disappearance has elements of the supernatural. Bierce’s own disappearance in late 1913 seems both a fitting and ironic end for a writer fascinated by such mysteri- ous vanishings—but was it something more? I undertook to solve the case, and it became part of my doctoral dis- sertation, Literary Investigation (Nickell 1987). Subsequently, Bierce biographer Roy Morris Jr. (1995) accepted and de- veloped my solution. Come with me now as we track the fabled author, from clue to hidden clue, to his final destina- tion. First, however, it will be instruc- tive to look briefly at a story of the kind Bierce found so fascinating.

A Vanished Boy Frank Edwards, in his tantalizing book Strangest of All (1962, 102), asks: “Is it possible for a human being to walk off the earth? Science says that it is not, but if that is correct then what hap- Figure 1. American writer Ambrose Bierce in a photograph from the 1890s. (Getty Images/Bettmann Collection. Used with permission.) pened to Oliver Larch?” Edwards tells the story of an eleven- year-old boy who disappeared on the he started on his errand, he was heard kerosene lamp. Oliver’s cries were al- night of Christmas Eve 1889 from his screaming: “Help! Help! They’ve got ready growing faint, and lamplight re- family’s farm at the outskirts of South me! Help! Help! Help!” vealed that his tracks led about halfway Bend, Indiana. The boy had been sent Family and visiting friends rushed to the well and then ended abruptly! to the well to fetch water, but just after outside, with Oliver’s father carrying a Writes Edwards: “There were no other

14 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer marks of any kind in the soft snow. Just The stark purposeless- marriage, the death of his son Leigh Oliver’s footprints … and the bucket … in 1901, and an abortive attempt at re- and silence.” Subsequent investigation, ness of these stories marriage in 1910. He was tired, suffered the writer states, proved the truth of the embodies Bierce’s per- from asthma, and began to plan what story. Neither eagles nor even a balloon, seems clearly intended as a final jour- he argues, could have made off with sonal philosophy that ney. By about October 1913, he headed the frightened boy. And he concludes: life is essentially south and west. A news clipping, reput- “Because it defied logical explanation, edly sent to his niece in a letter of No- the disappearance of this boy was qui- meaningless. vember 6, said, in part: “Mr. Bierce was etly filed away and forgotten” (Edwards dressed in black. From head to foot he 1962, 103). because God translated him,” i.e., took was attired in this color, except where I began my investigation of that case him away. And at the end of Sophocles’s the white cuffs and collar and shirt in May 1979. Exhaustive searches of play Oedipus at Colonus (fifth century front showed through. He even car- local records were made for me by the BCE) Oedipus mysteriously vanishes. ried a walking cane, black as ebony.” In Services Division of the South Bend Then there is the 1807 case of Benja- one letter he wrote, “Don’t know where Police Department and the Northern min Bathurst, who was a very real per- I shall be next. Guess it doesn’t mat- Indiana Historical Society. Alas, nei- son. He indeed disappeared under mys- ter much” (Nickell 2005, 22–23; Pope ther the fantastic disappearance nor terious circumstances; however, because [1922] 1967, xiv–xvi, 189, 195–198). any record of such a family could be he was a diplomat carrying dispatches By the time Bierce ceased to be heard discovered. After much further effort, I on a mission, he was presumed assassi- from, in late 1913 or early the next year, traced the tale back through earlier ver- nated. As might be expected, one ver- speculation about his whereabouts and sions—eventually reaching its original: sion of that case is of the Fortean variety fate were beginning to circulate. He had Although different in many details, it (O’Donnell 1972, 52–92). told reporters he was heading to Mexico was still recognizable by its major story I suspect that the Fortean genre to check on the revolution there: “To be elements as Ambrose Bierce’s short evolved from two main sources: first, a Gringo in Mexico—ah, that is eutha- story titled “Charles Ashmore’s Trail” actual missing persons such as Bathurst nasia!” This was almost certainly a ruse, (Bierce [1893] 1924, 421–424). and, second, from tales of presumed but stories of his involvement there— One of Bierce’s trilogy of “Myste- “apparitions” common to ghost stories. either with Pancho Villa’s forces or, rious Disappearances,” the story tells The latter frequently tell of someone on the other side, with the Carranzis- how a sixteen-year-old lad fails to re- encountering a figure that then sud- tas—proliferated like later Elvis Presley turn from an errand to fetch water denly vanishes, leading the witness to sightings. In fact, the U.S. government from a spring; subsequently, his tracks conclude it must therefore have been a had been unable to confirm that Bierce are found to cease suddenly in the snow. spirit that was seen. had crossed into Mexico (Nickell 2005, Two other supernatural tales complete 22–27). Bierce’s group: one has a planter walk- Disappearing Bierce Nevertheless, conjecture reigned, and ing across the pasture and disappearing Ambrose Bierce was born in 1842, Bierce would have loved it. If he report- in full view of his wife and a neighbor, the son of an Ohio farmer. He distin- edly died, again and again in Mexico— while the other features a runner who guished himself as a Union soldier in killed in battle, stood in a firing squad, stumbles in a footrace only to vanish the Civil War, at the close of which or just summarily murdered—it must before touching the ground. The stark he was, he claimed, breveted a major. have been his ghost that later appeared purposelessness of these stories embodies He subsequently worked as a Treasury briefly in France, as an officer on Lord Bierce’s personal philosophy that life is clerk in San Francisco. From about Kitchener’s staff, only to vanish again. essentially meaningless. We must keep 1868–1900, he became a journalist One scenario was based on the suppo- this in mind as we consider his fasci- and editor in San Francisco—except sition that the writer ended his days in nation with disappearance stories and for some three years in London where the State Asylum in Napa, California, whether that may have led to his own he achieved a reputation as a humorist. where his dear friend Carrie Christian- mysterious vanishing. In 1900, Bierce moved permanently to sen lived out her last years. Bierce was Bierce did not originate the genre Washington, D.C., where he published everywhere, elsewhere, and nowhere— of “mysterious disappearances”—or additional collections of stories, a col- spotted rather frequently for one who “Fortean disappearances,” as they are lection of verse, and a cynical lexicon had, supposedly and ironically, disap- now often called (after , (later known as The Devil’s Dictionary). peared (Nickell 2005, 23–25, 32–33). who loved to taunt “orthodox” scien- He also assembled the first ten volumes tists with reports of strange occurrences of The Collected Works of Ambrose Bierce. What Actually Happened they could not explain). The genre is, By 1912, Bierce was well into the Toward the end of his life, Bierce was in fact, ancient. For example, Hebrews final phase of his life, an old and rather burned out. He had written a powerful 11:5 reads, “Enoch … was not found, bitter man. He had suffered a failed essay advocating suicide titled “Taking

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 15 References Oneself Off,” in which he insisted, plot. The letter ends with the state- “Suicide is always courageous” (Bierce ment that he did “not wish to lie there. Bierce, Ambrose. (1893) 1924. Can Such Things Be? New York, NY: Albert and Charles Boni, [1909–12] 1966, 338–344). He wrote That matter is all arranged and you will 421–424. farewell letters to friends, saying to not be bothered about the mortal part ———. (1909–12) 1966. The Collected Works one, “My work is finished, and so am of [signed] Your Daddy” (quoted in of Ambrose Bierce (12 vols.). New York, NY: Gordian. I”; to another, he said he longed for Grenander 1971, 73). Edwards, Frank. 1962. Strangest of All. New York, “the good, good darkness”; and to still To complete his disappearing trick, NY: Signet. another, he stated, “I am going away Bierce needed only a distracting puff Fatout, Paul. 1951. Ambrose Bierce: The Devil’s Lexicographer. Norman, OK: University of and have no notion when I shall return” of smoke, so he furthered the illusion Oklahoma Press. (see Pope [1922] 1967, 189, 195–198). that he had crossed the Mexican bor- Grenander, M.E. 1971. Ambrose Bierce. Boston, In fact, he had put his affairs in order— der. He seems to have played games MA: Twayne. Morris, Roy Jr. 1995. Ambrose Bierce: Alone in Bad permanently. with his final communications. A “last Company. New York, NY: Crown Publishers. A few of Bierce’s friends, such as letter” was supposedly destroyed as per Neale, Walter. (1929) 1969. Life of Ambrose Bierce. Carrie Christiansen, appear to have Bierce’s orders and exists only among New York, NY: AMS Press. Nickell, Joe. 1987. Literary Investigation, doctoral been in on his ruses to fool everyone other colorful, suspicious notebook en- dissertation, University of Kentucky, 19–53. else. Only his close friend Walter Neale tries (penned, I observe, in Miss Chris- ———. 2005. Unsolved History. Lexington, KY: later gave up what he knew, Bierce hav- tiansen’s handwriting). That phantom The University Press of Kentucky. (The present article is adapted largely from this ing confided his basic plan to him. Ac- letter was reportedly datelined “De- source.) cording to Neale, approximately a year cember 25, 1913,” and headed “Chihua- O’Donnell, Elliott. 1972. Strange Disappearances. before he vanished, “he took a journey hua, Mexico,” but the American consul New York, NY: University Books. Pope, Bertha Clark, ed. (1922) 1967. The Letters through Yellowstone National Park, ex- could not find evidence Bierce was ever of Ambrose Bierce. New York, NY: Gordian. plored part of the Cañon of the Colo- in that town. There are other examples rado, and somewhere in the gorge of the of his subterfuges: regarding one letter Colorado selected the place of his last he headed with an anticipated future earthly habitat.” That occurred in the place and date, he would subsequently summer of 1912, but as early as 1910, confess, “Thus does man’s guile come Vanished Bierce had written of the Grand Can- to naught”; in a postscript to another, (for Ambrose Bierce) yon, “I’d like to lay my bones thereabout” he cautioned, “You need not believe all (quoted in Pope [1922] 1967, 164). that these newspapers say of me and my Your work Bierce showed Neale “a photograph purposes. I had to tell them something” finished, of the exact location, which I think he (see Nickell 2005, 22–31). you vanished, himself had taken with a kodak, and wandered. pointed out that there he would be Conclusions Everyone protected from vultures.” Bierce had won- often vowed to die by his own hand as Perhaps Ambrose Bierce felt that dered. a refusal to suffer the debilities of old although he could not cheat death, he You forsook age, and, Neale reported, Bierce had could somehow cheat the grave. Carey your grave plot, a German revolver for the purpose. McWilliams observed: “Nothing so to make Neale explains why Bierce may have augmented the interest in Ambrose your way ventured toward Mexico without ac- Bierce as his disappearance. Obscurity to a way- tually going there: Bierce, he believed, is obscurity, but disappearance is fame.” side spot, took the Southern Pacific route to the Bierce surely agreed. He had promised have us look Grand Canyon to avoid asthma, attacks (quoted by Paul Fatout 1951, 208), for nothing, or not. of which had plagued him so on his last “And nobody will find my bones.” Hidden California-to-Washington, D.C., trip And so with his last act and by his in a canyon, via a northern route that “he had to in- own hand—as we can picture him a place terrupt his journey several times” (Neale in his rock niche, firmly gripping his to punctuate [1929] 1969, 429–439). revolver—Ambrose Bierce steeled your final thought— Neale’s account rings true, and it is himself and kept that promise. • before the skeletonizing rot— corroborated in its main parts by the with the precise foregoing evidence: Bierce’s essay on Acknowledgments period of a pistol shot. suicide, his last letters, and the fact of his settled affairs. Finally, and I use that I am grateful to the numerous people who have helped further my work—none more word with emphasis, there is the re- so than John and Mary Frantz, whose gen- Joe Nickell vealing letter Bierce sent erous financial assistance over the years has in early 1913 giving up his cemetery made many of my investigations possible.

16 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer [ REALITY IS THE BEST MEDICINE HARRIET HALL Harriet Hall, MD, also known as “The SkepDoc,” is a retired family physician, a CSI fellow, and an editor of the Science-Based Medicine blog. Her website is www.skepdoc.info.

Hypnosis Revisited

s hypnosis for real? Do people I’m skeptical. Later he treated groups of patients who actually go into a trance, or is it sat around a “baquet” and were con- just a matter of imagination and History nected by iron rods and ropes; Mesmer role playing? Some people swear by it. I Perhaps the first to describe the hyp- made hand motions but did not touch One website proclaims that your mind notic state was Avicenna, a Persian the patients. The treatment provoked power is limitless: physician who wrote about “trance” striking responses, such as or The highly focused, yet deeply in 1027. Hypnosis was introduced to convulsions. relaxed state of mind achieved via the modern world by , King Louis XVI wondered about hypnosis yields many great benefits, a German doctor whose treatments Mesmer’s methods. He appointed a digging to the root cause of many of Board of Inquiry to investigate. The our mental, physical, and psycholog- became known as mesmerism. Working ical problems. Used for centuries, the in Paris in the late eighteenth cen- Board, which included the scientific lu- popularity of hypnosis continues to tury, Mesmer claimed that an invisible minaries Antoine Lavoisier and Benja- grow, as modern science embraces its force he called “” min Franklin, concluded that Mesmer’s life-transforming potential. (EOC influenced health. At first, he used results were due to belief and imagina- Institute N.d.) magnets but then decided magnets tion rather than to any invisible energy. It is said to do everything from re- were not necessary. He found he could Benjamin Franklin wrote the majority storing memories of past lives to mak- get the same results by merely pass- opinion, calling Mesmer a fraud. The ing people stop smoking. Is all that true? ing his hands over a patient’s body. term hypnotism is derived from the

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 17 Greek word for sleep, but it has nothing relates how they fooled everyone in suggestion. Attention is focused, and to do with sleep. The word was popular- town except for a few skeptics. Many subjects ignore all other sensory inputs. ized by James Braid, a Scottish surgeon years later, Twain tried to set the record Readers might accuse me of being who thought it was a mere contrivance straight by confessing the to unfair, saying I shouldn’t knock it until to induce responses that were easily ex- his mother. She refused to believe him, I tried it. But I have tried it. In med- plained by ordinary psychological and insisting vehemently that he really had ical school, I participated in group physiological principles. been hypnotized! sessions and found it very relaxing and Through the years, there have been I heard about a local dermatologist enjoyable. We were given the useful many advocates and practitioners of who had a patient with a rash on his posthypnotic suggestion that we would hypnosis as well as many skeptics. Much arm that wouldn’t heal because he kept never succumb to “highway hypnosis” misinformation has surrounded hypno- scratching an unexplained . He hyp- and fall asleep at the wheel. I still sis. Some thought it could be used to notized the patient and suggested that remember the warning and have never force a person to commit a crime (see instead of scratching, the patient would been in danger of falling asleep at the “Beware Mesmer Thieves!” SI, Novem- drop whatever he was holding when the wheel (but probably not because of ber/December 2015). It was linked to itching started. It worked beautifully. It the posthypnotic suggestion). I also popular music and . seems the itching was triggered when- had an individual experience during Some saw it as a political threat, fearing ever his wife criticized him or nagged my residency training when another the French could use it to subdue En- him, usually at the dinner table. He doctor hypnotized me and suggested I gland. The opinions of religious people didn’t consciously remember the sug- had an area of decreased sensation on were mixed: some saw it as the work gestion, but he followed it faithfully, my arm. An orthopedic doctor exam- of the devil; others thought Jesus had dropping his fork, food, water glass, or ined me and was appropriately puzzled practiced it. Mary Baker Eddy claimed whatever was in his hand at the time. until we revealed the trick. I even tried animal magnetism could lead to moral Without knowing why, the wife be- self-hypnosis but quickly lost interest. decay and death. came conditioned to stop nagging him. It produced a nice, relaxed feeling, but Sigmund Freud was trained in hyp- I guess she got tired of cleaning up the I didn’t think it was worth the time and nosis. He practiced it for years, using mess. effort involved. hypnotic regression to help patients recover repressed memories. But he My Personal Experience Hypnosis Today eventually abandoned it in favor of psy- I was taught in medical school to think Today hypnosis is widely used for choanalysis. He toyed with the idea of of hypnosis not as a trance but as the many purposes, from entertainment augmenting psychoanalysis with hyp- selective attention/selective inatten- to forensics to medical treatment to nosis, thinking it might hasten recovery tion (SASI) state produced by strong self-improvement. Some think it is an but then deciding it might weaken the outcome. Hypnosis has been depicted in books and movies, often inaccurately. The fic- tional hypnotist Svengali exploited a young girl with evil intent. In Edgar Allan Poe’s short story “The Facts in the Case of M. Valdemar,” a man was hypnotized at the moment of death and continued to speak from beyond the grave.

Fun with Hypnosis In his autobiography, Mark Twain wrote about his experience with a stage hypnotist who performed in Hannibal, Missouri, for two weeks. Twain was fifteen at the time and liked the idea of getting all that attention, so after fail- ing to be hypnotized several nights in a row, he went along with the sugges- tions and pretended to be hypnotized. Soon Twain was the hypnotist’s only subject and the star of the show. He

18 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer Some think hypnosis is Past-Life Regression convincing, and hypnosis is catego- an altered state of con- Past-life regression has been thor- rized by many medical organizations as oughly debunked. It is a method that a form of . Medi- sciousness; others call uses hypnosis to recover memories of cal applications of hypnosis have been it a placebo, an inter- past lives, requiring a belief in reincar- widely studied in clinical trials. There nation. In the case of Bridey Murphy, are reports of its success for smoking action with a therapist, a housewife recalled living in the nine- cessation, but a 2019 Cochrane system- or an imaginative role teenth century as an Irish woman. Her atic review of published studies found story seemed very convincing, but care- no clear evidence that hypnosis was ef- enactment. ful investigation completely discredited fective (Barnes et al. 2019). For weight it. Fact checking proved many of the loss, when hypnosis was added to cog- details false, and the ones that were nitive behavioral therapy, it increased altered state of consciousness; others true were determined to be a result success rates. It has been found useful call it a placebo, an interaction with a of cryptomnesia. She had remembered for managing pain and reducing therapist, or an imaginative role enact- things she had heard or seen during about surgery. ment. Scales of “hypnotizability” have childhood, but she had forgotten the In Robert Baker’s book They Call been devised, and some therapists have source of the memories. Curiously, It Hypnosis, he claims there is no such estimated that up to 25 percent of the those who report past lives usually thing as hypnosis. He says it is a form of population can’t be hypnotized. claim to have been important people learned behavior and compliance with such as Cleopatra or Napoleon, not the suggestions of an authority figure. Retrieving Lost Memories common swineherds or kitchen maids. When I attended an airplane accident The details they relate can’t be corrob- So, Is It Real? investigation course in the U.S. Air Force, orated, and they can’t properly speak After reviewing the evidence, I’m not we were taught that hypnosis could the language they would have used in convinced that the “hypnotic trance” retrieve lost memories and should be the previous life. is a real thing. The procedures used to used on witnesses to help them remem- induce hypnosis are tricks that focus The Military ber forgotten details such as the num- attention, reduce peripheral awareness, bers on license plates. That’s simply not Hypnosis was investigated by the mil- enhance the patient’s response to sug- true. It doesn’t retrieve actual memories itary. They found no evidence that it gestion, and encourage fantasy. I will but encourages subjects to fantasize and could be used for military applications. continue to think of hypnosis as the create false memories. to SASI state of selective attention/selec- Surgery retrieve repressed memories of childhood tive inattention. The ability to focus sexual abuse is more likely to result in There are reports of patients under- and direct one’s thoughts is undoubt- tragedy than truth: people who were going surgery with hypnosis instead edly very useful in many contexts, but falsely accused have gone to jail. Under of conventional anesthesia, but they hypnosis is not the only way to achieve hypnosis, people are more suggestible are not properly documented, and no that goal. Cognitive behavioral therapy and more open to fantasy and imagi- conclusions can be drawn. and meditation can accomplish some of nation, and it is impossible to distin- the same things. I wouldn’t mind being guish between a true event and a fantasy. The Scientific Evidence hypnotized again to recreate the enjoy- Psychological studies have shown that There is no objective way to tell able relaxation I experienced; however, memory is unreliable. It doesn’t record whether a person is hypnotized. We I wouldn’t rely on it to retrieve a mem- like a video camera but is instead mal- have to rely on self-reports and obser- ory, replace anesthesia for surgery, or do leable. Every time we recall something, vations of their behavior. If the person all the other things hypnosis is claimed it can be subtly altered or confused with claims to have for what hap- to do. And I don’t intend to ever go on another memory. False memories are pened during hypnosis, we can’t rule stage and act like a chicken! • easy to create and can seem more real out the possibility that the memory References than true memories. still exists somewhere in the person’s brain. One intriguing study divided Barnes, Joanne, Hayden McRobbie, Christine Age Regression Y. Dong, et al. 2019. Hypnotherapy for subjects into two groups. One group smoking cessation. Cochrane Database of In age regression, subjects are asked to was hypnotized, and the other group Systematic Reviews ( June 14). Available return to an earlier time in their lives. was asked to just pretend they were online at https://www.cochranelibrary.com/ They confabulate, making up false hypnotized. Their behavior was identi- cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD001008. memories that can’t be independently cal. Moreover, all the effects attributed pub3/full#CD001008-abs-0003. EOC Institute. N.d. Meditation: A Powerful confirmed. They talk as they imagine to hypnosis have been replicated with- Hypnosis Alternative? Available online at a child of that age would talk but not out hypnosis. https://eocinstitute.org/meditation/hypno- the way a child of that age really talks. The scientific evidence is far from sis-meditation-and-equisync/.

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 19 [ BEHAVIOR & BELIEF STUART VYSE Stuart Vyse is a psychologist and author of Believing in Magic: The Psychology of Supersti- tion, which won the Book Award of the American Psychological Association. He is a fellow of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry.

The Tragedy of Our Commons

Credit: Pixabay

ot long ago I was scrolling A little bit of investigation revealed the tweet on page 21 are of a meeting at through Instagram when I saw that, with respect to the COVID-19 the University of Technology in Sydney, a video of people in Perth, pandemic, Australia was a very differ- Australia (population 5.2 million), on NAustralia, gathering in small crowds ent place than the United States. For December 9. You will notice that peo- outdoors, no face coverings in sight. example, the day before I wrote this sen- ple are a bit more spaced apart than they From my perspective in the United tence (December 10) Australia (popula- might have been before the pandemic, States, where an average of over 2,000 tion 25.5 million) had six new cases of but they are indoors and not wearing people a day were dying of COVID- COVID-19 and no deaths; the United masks. The university’s COVID-19 in- 19, it was a somewhat shocking image States (population 330 million) led the structions advised anyone who was feel- to see. But these bare-faced people world with 226,762 new cases and a re- ing sick to stay home and required that were not attending a political rally or cord 3,260 deaths.1 Adjusted for popu- everyone coming to campus check in an anti-mask protest; they were at the lation size, Australia’s infection rate on using a QR code. Smartphone apps and opening of a ride/experience called that day was equivalent to seventy-eight QR codes were commonly used when “Flight” that involved “binaural audio” new cases in the United States. What a people entered buildings to facilitate and hydraulic movements inside a large dream that would be. contact tracing should someone be ex- shipping container. The people in the Life in the winter of 2020 was very posed to the virus. But life was going on video looked very happy. different in Australia. The pictures in in Australia with a kind of freedom that

20 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer mounted unified responses. China and several other Asian countries had prior experience with SARS-CoV-1, and mask use was already a common part of life. They also have far more com- munitarian cultures than most West- ern countries. China achieves much of its national unity through authoritari- anism, but national unity and trust of the government are common in Asian countries, making strong responses to COVID-19 possible. Nightclubs are open in Wuhan, Singapore, Taiwan, and Japan, although hours were re- cently shortened in Osaka (Everington 2020; Gable 2020; Johnson 2020). In Australia, the biggest outbreak was in Melbourne, in the southern state of Victoria, and rather than a goal of X number of days of declining cases, the state set out to eradicate the virus. In an effort to curb the spread, transportation between states was curtailed, and com- pliance with the restrictions was quite good (Scott 2020). New Zealand has had clear messaging from the begin- Photos from a meeting at the University of Technology, Sydney, Australia. (Credit: @BronwynHemsley on Twitter) ning. In her coronavirus briefings, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has frequently was impossible in the United States. never adopted the goal of driving the referred to “our team of five million” Australia is not the only country to daily cases to zero. In contrast, all the (Togoh 2020). get beyond the virus. The epidemic has countries that have successfully gotten Europe has been a more difficult been over in China (population 1.4 bil- beyond the virus set a goal of complete location for control of the disease, but lion) for months, and there have been elimination and maintained their re- even there the effect of national unity no deaths since April. Vietnam (popu- strictions until they had come as close can be seen. The Scandinavian coun- lation 97 million) had its last death in to that mark as possible. These countries tries all enjoy a relatively high level of early September. The success story in gave the virus no safe harbor, and as a trust in government (Helsingen et al. New Zealand (population 4.8 million) result they recovered their freedoms. 2020), and, with the possible exception continues, with three deaths since late Successfully achieving the goal of of Sweden, their response to the out- May, the last of these in mid-September. elimination of the virus using non-phar- break has been very good. Sweden fa- There are many circumstances that maceutical intervention requires several mously did not impose strict lockdown produce the kind of results these coun- factors, but one clear requirement is and adopted a herd immunity ap- tries have enjoyed, but one factor ap- national unity. In his new book, Apollo’s proach, which led to many more deaths pears to be setting the right goal. In the Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Im- than in neighboring countries. In June, United States, the Centers for Disease pact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live, Sweden’s top epidemiologist expressed Control and Prevention (CDC) recom- physician and sociologist Nicholas A. regret about the strategy they chose and mended that the criterion for opening Christakis made the following predic- said that in hindsight they should have up states be a fourteen-day decline in tion: “Some countries will undoubtedly employed a stronger approach (“Coro- the number of cases (Centers for Dis- manage it better than others, and my navirus: Sweden’s Tegnell Admits Too ease Control and Prevention 2020)— guess is that the nations that fare the Many Died” 2020). which was not consistently adhered to best will be the ones with high public To show the effectiveness of the by all the states. As a result, the coun- trust and strong science-based leader- Scandinavian response, I produced the try never reached an average infection ship” (Christakis 2020, 101–102). graph in Figure 1 using the tools of the rate of lower than 20,000 cases per day. Christakis wrote that sentence back coronavirus page of Our World in Data There were other criteria involving the in August, and it is clear that he was (ourworldindata.org). Infection rates are number of available intensive care beds on target. All the countries mentioned strongly affected by testing rates, so I and test positivity rates, but the country earlier that have returned to normal life plotted COVID-19 deaths adjusted for

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 21 barriers aren’t a deciding factor. Figure 2 shows COVID-19 deaths per million for the island nations of Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Singapore, Ireland, and the United Kingdom. All but one of these countries have done quite well. In the first wave, both Ireland and the United Kingdom experienced a steep increase in deaths before topping out at fourteen per million per day, but in the second wave the picture was very differ- ent. In December, the United Kingdom was witnessing another surge in infec- tions and deaths, but Ireland avoided a substantial increase in deaths during the second wave. A possible reason for the difference can be seen in the politics of the two nations. In an article in Time magazine in Figure 1. Daily COVID-19 deaths per million population for the Scandinavian countries and selected western European nations. June, global health policy experts Gavin Yamey and Clare Wenham pointed out that in October 2019, just months be- the populations of the countries. The wave took off in late autumn, the same fore the coronavirus crisis emerged, the first wave of the outbreak shows two three Scandinavian countries formed a Global Health Security Index (https:// distinct groups of responses. The high- group with much fewer deaths, but Ger- www.ghsindex.org/) ranked the United est death rates were seen in the western many’s second surge was larger, placing States first in epidemic preparedness— European group—minus Germany— it back in a pack with the other Euro- out of 195 countries—and ranked the and Sweden, and the lowest rates were pean countries and Sweden. United Kingdom second. How could seen in the remaining three Scandina- When discussing the successful con- they have gotten it so wrong? Yamey vian countries. Early in the epidemic, tainment efforts in Australia and New and Wenham suggest the ranking was Germany was praised for its response, Zealand, some have pointed out that so glaringly off the mark because “It but by May anti-lockdown protests these are island nations that benefit did not account for the political context organized by the Querdenker (“lateral from the absence of land boarders with in which a national policy response to thinking”) movement began to emerge other countries, but a wider comparison a pandemic is formulated and imple- (Deutsche Welle 2020). As the second of island countries suggests that water mented.” Both countries have “illiberal populist” leaders and bitterly divided political environments. Britain has an ongoing second crisis over Brexit, which was decided by a narrow margin in a national referendum, and the United States has a gaping red-blue divide that, as I write this, can be seen most clearly in the controversy over the 2020 pres- idential election. In days following the election, over 70 percent of the mem- bers of the losing party reported they did not believe the election had been free and fair (Bekiempis 2020). An interesting contrast can be seen in the political landscape in Ireland and in the Irish response to the coronavirus. Unlike the United Kingdom, Ireland remains in the European Union and has shown notable unity in recent years. Since 2015, Ireland has had two import- Figure 2. Daily COVID-19 deaths per million population for a select group of island nations. ant national referenda: in 2015 to legal-

22 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer has a limited capacity to support the herd. Under free market conditions, each farmer will get the entire benefit of adding another cow to their herd, and the cost of this action—slightly depleted grass—will be shared among the farmers. Using this calculus, it is always better to add more animals to one’s herd than not, but the end-point of all this rational self-interest is star- vation for all. Today, this conflict plays out two blocks from where I am sitting. The village of Stonington, Connecticut, is home to one of the last fishing fleets in the area, and the fishers are constantly at loggerheads with state regulators. The state’s Department of Energy and Environmental Protection sets limits on the numbers of fish commercial fishers can pull from the ocean—not because they are mean but to protect the long- term viability of the fishing beds for everyone (Department of Energy and Environmental Protection N.d.). De- spite the obvious benefits of these rules, ized gay marriage and, in 2018, to over- Team 2020): the fishers have a long-running battle turn the country’s thirty-five-year ban Ireland currently has the lowest inci- with regulators to increase the allowable on abortion. Both these referendums dence in Europe and has protected size of the catch. Soon after the 2016 spurred #HomeToVote efforts aimed against the significant mortality and election, the town docks were decorated at getting Irish citizens living abroad to severe illness that many European with a large red sign featuring a picture come home to vote, and both were won countries, as well as the United States, have experienced. Our of Donald Trump that said, “President by large majorities. In 2018, over 66 per- younger generation led the way, with Trump, Make Commercial Fishing cent of the electorate voted to approve the incidence in the 19-24 year age Great Again.” a constitutional amendment legalizing group reduced from 432 per 100,000 In the case of the coronavirus crisis, abortion. In the United States, it is dif- population to 41 per 100,000 popu- the common fields that we all share are ficult to imagine many political issues lation. This is an enormous achieve- ment. We all need to recognise how the economy, the healthcare system, and that 66 percent of the electorate could well our younger generation has the very air we breathe. People who ad- agree on. The last president to win by a reduced their contacts and helped to vocate for removing health restrictions popular vote margin of over 66 percent protect the whole population. We all was James Monroe in 1820. Similarly, now need to follow this example in the Brexit referendum in the United the weeks ahead. In the case of the coro- Kingdom was decided by less than four percentage points. The Tragedy of Our Commons navirus crisis, the com- Following the first wave of the coro- mon fields that we all navirus epidemic in Ireland, compliance The economic concept of the Tragedy with public health guidance has been of the Commons was first introduced share are the economy, very good. Pubs that do not serve food in 1833 by British economic writer the healthcare system, are closed, but pubs that serve food are William Forster Lloyd but was perhaps open. As of early December, retail stores most clearly described by biologist and the very air that were preparing for a vigorous holiday Garrett Hardin in 1968. Simply stated, we breathe. shopping season. when individuals share a resource to In a statement on December 12, Ire- which they each have free access, there land’s chief medical officer, Dr. Tony will be a tendency to use it all up, and assert their individual freedoms Holohan, singled out the important causing disaster for all. In the clas- to gather together without masks and contribution made by young people sic example, cattle farmers share a defy the health recommendations spoil (National Public Health Emergency common grazing field, but the field

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 23 those common goods for us all. Other Available online at https://portal.ct.gov/ countries pulled together to rid their DEEP/Fishing/Commercial/Commercial- The United States Fishing. countries of the virus, save lives, and Deutsche Welle. 2020. Coronavirus: Anti- restart their economies long before appears to be the lockdown group put under surveil- vaccines were available. Meanwhile, lance in German state: DW: 09.12.2020. most politically divided DW.COM. Available online at https:// the U.S. economy has been crippled for www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-anti-lock- nine months. The unemployment rate, country in the world at down-group-put-under-surveillance-in-ger- which had been below 4 percent in Feb- man-state/a-55878122. this moment, and we Dimock, Michael, and Richard Wike. 2020. ruary, briefly hit 13 percent in May and America is exceptional in the nature of remains at over 6 percent today with also have the largest its political divide. Pew Research Center job growth leveling off. According to (November 13). Available online at number of coronavirus https://www.pewresearch.org/fact- data from Yelp, Inc., 80,000 businesses tank/2020/11/13/america-is-exception- shuttered between March 1 and July 25 infections and deaths. al-in-the-nature-of-its-political-divide/. (Ngo 2020). With cases rising in the Everington, Keoni. 2020. Masks to be mandatory in Taiwan’s bars, nightclubs starting Dec. U.S. winter wave, these economic trends 1. Taiwan News (November 19). Available will continue until and if widespread it is just a coincidence—but we also online at https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/ vaccination builds herd immunity. en/news/4057238. have the largest number of coronavirus Gable, Jake. 2020. Singapore nightclub reopens infections and deaths. There must be for first time since COVID closure. We A House Divided someone who benefits from the polit- Rave You (December 6). Available online at https://weraveyou.com/2020/12/covid-sin- In 1858, after accepting the Illinois ical divisions we see on our TV screens gapore/. Republican Party’s nomination for the every day, but it isn’t the people dying Helsingen, Lise, Erle Refsum, Dagrun Kyte from COVID-19, the business own- Gjøstein, et al. 2020. Trust, threats, and con- Senate, Abraham Lincoln gave one of sequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in his most famous speeches beginning ers filing for bankruptcy, or the work- Norway and Sweden—a comparative survey. with the lines: “A house divided against ers who’ve lost their jobs. In the short BMC Public Health 20: 1–10. run, the vaccines may bring an end to Johnston, Eric. 2020. Shorter hours begin itself, cannot stand. I believe this gov- in Osaka nightlife areas amid COVID- ernment cannot endure permanently the pandemic, but the damage left in its 19 surge. The Japan Times (November 27). half slave and half free.” wake will not be wiped out so quickly. Available online at https://www.japantimes. In October 2020, Pew Research con- Meanwhile, there are new and unknown co.jp/news/2020/11/27/national/social-is- challenges ahead. As long as our house sues/osaka-restaurant-hours-covid/. ducted an international survey of people Lloyd, W.F. 1833. Two Lectures on the Checks to who thought their country had done a remains divided against itself, we remain Population. Oxford: Collingwood. good job confronting the coronavirus vulnerable. • National Public Health Emergency Team. 2020. Statement from the National Public Health crisis (Dimock and Wike 2020). When Note Emergency Team—Saturday 12 December. respondents were separated by people Available online at https://www.gov.ie/en/ who did and did not support the gov- 1. All coronavirus statistics in this arti- press-release/48e25-statement-from-the-na- cle, apart from the graphs, are drawn from tional-public-health-emergency-team-satur- erning party, the United States had the Worldometer.com. day-12-december/. greatest divide. Seventy-six percent Ngo, Madeleine. 2020. Small businesses are References of supporters of the governing party dying by the thousands—and no one is track- ing the carnage. Bloomberg.com (August 11). Bekiempis, Victoria. 2020. 70% of Republicans thought the nation had done a good job Available online at https://www.bloomberg. say election wasn’t “free and fair” despite with the coronavirus, compared to only com/news/articles/2020-08-11/small-firms- no evidence of fraud—study. die-quietly-leaving-thousands-of-failures- 29 percent of those who did not support (November 10). Available online at https:// uncounted. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/ the governing party. This 47 percent Scott, Dylan. 2020. How Melbourne eradi- nov/10/election-trust-polling-study-repub- split was substantially greater than the cated covid-19. Vox (December 4). licans. Available online at https://www.vox. other countries surveyed. By compar- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. com/2020/12/4/22151242/melbourne-victo- 2020. CDC activities and initiatives sup- ison, in both Australia and Denmark, ria-australia-covid-19-cases-lockdown. porting the COVID-19 response and the supporters of the ruling party gave a 98 Togoh, Isabel. 2020. New Zealand, with its president’s plan for opening America up covid-19 outbreak under control, is in percent approval of their country’s coro- again. Available online at https://www.cdc. gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/php/ talks with Biden as U.S. exceeds 12 mil- navirus response and those not support- lion cases. Forbes (November 23). Available ing the party gave 93 percent approv- cdc-activities-initiatives-for-covid-19-re- sponse.pdf. online at https://www.forbes.com/sites/ al—a mere five-point split. Canada and Christakis, Nicholas A. 2020. Apollo’s Arrow: The isabeltogoh/2020/11/23/new-zealand-with- Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus its-covid-19-outbreak-under-control-is-in- Germany both showed eleven-point talks-with-biden-as-us-exceeds-12-million- splits. All these countries have done on the Way We Live. New York: Little, Brown Spark. cases/?sh=45d6494a1ed4. substantially better than the United Coronavirus: Sweden’s Tegnell admits too many Yamey, Gavin, and Clare Wenham. 2020. Why States in combatting the pandemic. died. 2020. BBC News ( June 3). Available the U.S. and U.K. failed their coronavi- rus responses. Time ( July 1). Available The United States appears to be the online at https://www.bbc.com/news/ world-europe-52903717. online at https://time.com/5861697/ most politically divided country in the Department of Energy and Environmental us-uk-failed-coronavirus-response/. world at this moment. And—perhaps Protection. N.d. Commercial fishing. CT.gov.

24 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer [ SKEPTICAL INQUIREE BENJAMIN RADFORD Benjamin Radford is a research fellow at the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry and author or coauthor of thirteen books, including Big—If True: Adventures in Oddity.

The Pointlessness of Pet Acupuncture

Have you done an investigation into pet acupuncture? What’s the story behind that? Q: —M. Downey

Pet acupuncture is not a topic that has : gotten much specific attention from skep- A tics. It’s not widely practiced among professional vet- erinarians, though it does have its adherents. Many fields are inherently sketchy, acupuncture and psychic phe- nomena among them. When applied to nonhuman animals, the claims get exponentially more dubious. One key issue is falsifiability: Can the claim be proven true or false, proven or dis- proven? The basic premise of acupuncture is that needles placed at certain points on the body, often along imagined merid- ian lines, can be used to manipulate the body’s imagined energy field and thus treat or cure myriad medical maladies. A full skeptical analysis of acupuncture is beyond the scope of this column, but suffice it to note that different acu- puncture traditions use different acu- puncture points. Like other pseudosci- ences, including and , there’s not even any agreement on the fundamentals of the practice—such as where to place the needles on the body. The author looking suitably skeptical outside a pet acupuncture clinic in Los Ranchos, New Mexico. Photo by Shana It varies by person and practice; some Pedroncelli.

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 25 acupuncturists manipulate the body’s valid controls, and the theoretical basis ture is inherently flawed. After all, no presumed energy fields only in certain for traditional acupuncture practice medical treatment—even on people—is places, such as the ear or hand. Others needs to be re-evaluated.” completely effective all the time on all claim it needs to be done all over the To the extent that acupuncture patients. It’s easy enough to rationalize body—and there’s no universal agree- “works,” it’s largely due to the placebo away any failures. ment about where those places are, with effect—and because pets can’t know or David Ramey of the ever-useful Sci- pretty much anywhere on the body understand that the needles being put ence-Based Medicine blog examined ani- being claimed by someone or other as an in them are supposed to relieve pain, the mal acupuncture, noting: important meridian. The lack of stan- placebo effect can’t work on them. Un- Acupuncture points haven’t been dardized, stringent research methods like humans, animals can’t communicate shown to exist in animals (or people, and practices might be understandable reports of reduced pain—that can only for that matter). In fact, the acupunc- for a new therapy, but proponents claim be indirectly inferred by observation, ture charts devised for animals are inventions of the 20th century, made that acupuncture has been practiced for and of course that raises the problem of by “transposing” one of the myriad thousands of years. (It hasn’t, and even if observer (pet owner) bias. human charts directly onto animals. it had been, it’s troubling that millennia That’s one reason why horses have of practice hasn’t led to improvement.) a “gall bladder” meridian (putative In the real world, it can be difficult to channels which connect acupunc- Because pets can’t ture points, which also haven’t been prove correlation—and cause and effect know or understand shown to exist), even though they relationships even more so. This is why don’t have a gall bladder. But, when the gold standard for research in many that the needles being it comes to animal acupuncture, fields is a randomized, controlled, dou- there’s apparently no absurdity suf- put in them are sup- ficiently large to cause practitioners ble-blinded study. That doesn’t mean any embarrassment. (Ramey 2009) that other study methods (cross-sec- posed to relieve pain, tional, case-controlled, etc.) are neces- the placebo effect As for the scientific literature, well, sarily flawed or invalid, just that they it’s sparse. Continues Ramey: don’t have the power of higher-quality can’t work on them. One can occasionally find posi- studies. This is especially applicable to tive studies, especially if the studies acupuncture claims and especially to pet have been poorly designed. There acupuncture claims. As with most types of alternative have been two reviews on veterinary acupuncture. One, looking at the medicine, virtually all the “evidence” for One of the main challenges with evidence across all animal , scientifically testing acupuncture is that pet acupuncture is anecdotal. Animals concluded that there wasn’t enough people tend to know whether or not may exhibit a problem behavior (such as compelling evidence to either sup- they’re being stuck with needles. It’s crying) and then stop when their owner port or refute the practice; the other, or another person does something dif- in horses, concluded that there wasn’t kind of a hard thing to miss, though good evidence to support the prac- some researchers have attempted to ferent or new (such as spending time tice, and that the best studies were control for this confounder by using treating the pet), and in many cases the uniformly negative. (Ramey 2009) sham needles (for example, ones that behavior might change. This is seen by As far as treatments go, acupuncture don’t actually penetrate the skin) or many as validating the treatment, but itself is relatively safe. There are some putting the needles outside of the des- it’s a classic example of the logical fal- minor risks to any acupuncture (mostly ignated meridian lines (presumably the lacy post hoc ergo propter hoc (after this, from contaminated needles), but at least treatment wouldn’t work a few centime- therefore because of it). Animals are nobody is cutting open bodies or intro- ters in any direction off the lines). sensitive to cues, and it could be that ducing dangerous drugs to the patient. One review (Moffet 2009) exam- doing anything different would have The bigger dangers are the fact that ined thirty-eight acupuncture trials fixed the problem—paying more atten- whatever malady the pet is actually suf- tion to the animal, taking it to any new and found that “Most studies found fering from isn’t being treated and the place (including a pet psychic or acu- no statistically significant difference time and money wasted on ineffective puncturist’s office), etc. Any change in in outcomes, and most of these found treatments. • that sham acupuncture may be as effi- behavior may have nothing to do with cacious as true acupuncture, especially the specific treatment. The owner may References when superficial needling was applied also re-interpret the behavior in a dif- Moffet, Howard. 2009. Sham acupuncture may to non-points.” Overall, the study con- ferent way, subjectively deciding that the be as efficacious as true acupuncture: A sys- tematic review of clinical trials. The Journal cluded that “The findings cast doubt pet seems better after a treatment. of Alternative and Complementary Medicine on the validity of traditional acupunc- If the condition doesn’t improve, 15(3). ture theories about point locations and that does not necessarily demonstrate Ramey, David. 2009. Animal acupuncture. Science-Based Medicine ( June 8). Available indications. Scientific rationales for to the pet owner (or acupuncturist) that online at https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/ acupuncture trials are needed to define the premise underlying pet acupunc- animal-acupuncture/.

26 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer COMMENTARY]

Facts, Theories, and Best Explanations PETER J. MARSTON

oth in my classrooms and in and for the deep connections that exist ways to promote skepticism is to reveal public forums, I have seen most among all terrestrial life. the rhetorical strategies (and attendant discussions of the relative mer- My principle method in approaching sophistries) that are used in paranormal Bits of evolution and creationism falter extraordinary claims is rhetorical and and pseudoscientific discourse. While due to confusion over use of the terms operates on two fronts. First, it concerns people are generally resistant to being theory and fact. Creationists try to chal- the ways in which discourse advancing “wrong,” they are considerably less lenge the validity of evolution by as- extraordinary claims appeals to various defensive about being “fooled” (Mar- serting that it is merely a theory, while ston 2014). Second, it seeks to develop audiences. I have found one of the best evolutionists counter by asserting that more effective and constructive rhetor- evolution is plainly a fact. This creates ical strategies that may be employed an impasse; because the terms are pre- I recommend a by skeptics in their efforts to convert sumed to be mutually exclusive, there is more productive the credulous. My comments here are no semantic space in which to reconcile rooted in this second front. them. No progress is made, either in expression to persuading the persuadable or improv- describe evolution: Facts ing the ability of evolutionists to engage in constructive dialogue with those who namely, evolution Facts are, of course, statements that are discount or dismiss evolution. is the best true. They are typically beyond dis- I recommend a more productive and, pute and therefore noncontroversial. To in my view, more accurate expression to explanation for establish a disputed statement as a fact describe evolution: namely, evolution is the diversity of life in any discussion requires clear eviden- the best explanation for the diversity of tiary demonstration. To be productive life forms on Earth, including humans, forms on Earth. in dialogue, however, such evidentiary

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 27 demonstration must secure the adher- It is fair to say that, in a sense, evo- Which better accounts ence of all interlocutors. Indeed, unilat- lution is a theory and, judging by the erally asserting a statement as a fact is titles of countless books written by for the diversity of life counterproductive and ends discussion, biologists on the subject, this charac- and the development disqualifying those who dispute the terization is not hostile to evolutionists. fact as recalcitrant. For this reason Of course, creationists add the modifier of species—evolution or alone, it is not rhetorically effective mere, either explicitly or tacitly (by con- creationism? to claim that evolution is a fact when trasting theories with facts), and this is engaging creationists or seeking to per- patently unfair. However, responding suade those who attend such debates to the claim that evolution is not a and discussions. This is especially true mere theory by claiming evolution is a accounts for the diversity of life and for young people encountering tension plain fact reinforces—even if uninten- the development of species—evolution between what is taught in their biology tionally—this specious bifurcation and or creationism? classes and what is preached in their risks incoherence, if indeed it is sensi- Note that in some areas of skeptical homes. ble to describe evolution as a theory. inquiry, this view of facts, theories, and Asserting evolution as a fact is rhe- (Again, we see the rhetorical effects of best explanations is well established. torically problematic, because while the nearly intractable equivocation I Joe Nickell, in his many Skeptical facts are true statements, that is not referenced in the previous paragraph.) Inquirer columns, is especially dis- the only feature of a fact (thus, not all Even if we were successfully able, in ciplined in offering his conclusions as true statements are best characterized discussions with creationists, to tease best explanations (e.g., positing bears as as facts). Belgian philosopher Chaïm out the ways in which evolution is a the- the most likely object in Bigfoot sight- Perelman (1969) notes that facts are ory and the ways in which it is a fact, ings or hypnagogia as our best explana- atomistic and immutable. That is, in- we would still have moved the argument tion for many ghost “sightings”). But in ferences based upon facts may change, into territory that is likely too sophis- other areas, the problem I describe here and new facts may be discovered, but ticated and subtle for lay audiences: arises in a very similar manner, most the facts themselves do not change. So, namely, the distinction between “mere” notably in the issue of climate change, examples of facts might be statements theories and established theories. To which is generally characterized by a such as “The Green Bay Packers won demonstrate that evolution is the latter struggle over “facts” and “theories.” The the 1967 Super Bowl,” “My father and not the former simply does not re- better armed skeptics are rhetorically, passed away of a heart attack,” “The Bill dress the critique that evolution is still the more effective they will be. • of Rights was ratified in 1791,” and so a theory, leaving in the of nearly References on. From this perspective, I find that as- all creationists—and a fair proportion of serting evolution as a fact exposes an ad- other lay people—the impression that Marston, Peter J. 2014. The rhetoric of extraor- dinary claim. Skeptical Inquirer 38(5): vocate to critique based upon the many evolution is somehow less than “true,” 50–54. advances and refinements in evolution- at least in the sense that facts are true. Perelman, Chaïm. 1969. The New Rhetoric. Notre ary theory over the past two hundred Dame, IN: University of Notre Dame Press. years, for evolutionary theory is by no Best Explanations means immutable—it is a remarkably For these reasons, I suggest that evo- Peter Marston is professor of communica- dynamic and robust area of scientific lutionists simply step away from the tion studies at California State University research. Now, advocates of evolution whole tangle of the fact-versus-theory Northridge. may object that when they assert that debate, by presenting evolution as the evolution is a fact, they are not assert- best explanation for the development of ing that evolutionary theory is a fact but life on Earth, including the emergence rather that the biological phenomenon is of humans. “Best explanations” need a fact. Fair enough, but when discuss- not face the critiques that disputed ing evolution, it is virtually impossible “facts” typically do and that charac- Related Article to avoid this equivocation between the teristically render dialogue and debate biological phenomenon and the theories David Morrison, “Only a Theory? unproductive. Presenting evolution that seek to explain it. It may therefore Reframing the Evolution/ as our best explanation both diffuses Creation Issue.” Skeptical be best to sidestep the issue by avoiding such critiques and relieves advocates Inquirer, November/December the F-word. 2005. Online at skepticalin- of evolution of a burden of proof that quirer.org and reprinted in K. is, frankly, of little relevance to the Frazier, ed., Science Under Siege, Theories debate. Indeed, evolutionists are best 2009. Theories are sets of concepts held served by directing attention precisely together by explanatory relationships. to the central question: Which better

28 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer REMEMBRANCE]

The Many Valuable Contributions of Scott O. Lilienfeld, Scientist, Skeptic, and Colleague D. ALAN BENSLEY

on the teaching of critical thinking in Although I followed Scott’s work psychology. He was friendly and gave during this time, I did not talk to him my students and me some encouraging again until after the publication of his words about research on decision mak- wonderful little book 50 Great Myths ing that we were presenting. of Popular Psychology (Lilienfeld et al. Throughout his life, Scott was a 2010). The book discusses many com- great reviewer, editor, and collaborator. mon misconceptions, including the After serving as an editor of the pres- mistaken belief that people use only tigious Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 10 percent of their brains; that vent- he became the founding editor of The ing your anger is a good way to reduce Scientific Review of Prac- aggression; and that raising students’ tice, a journal featuring articles on pseu- self-esteem is a good way to improve doscience in relation to evidence-based their academic performance. Scott and practices in psychology. In one of his his coauthors convincingly debunked many productive collaborations expos- these and many other myths with re- ing the dangers that pseudoscience and views of high-quality scientific research. low-quality science pose for clinical That book revealed not only the breadth practice, he discussed problems with of Scott’s psychological knowledge but the , a widely used— also his gift for making psychology in- but poorly supported—projective test formative and fascinating while helping (Wood et al. 2003). His eleventh SI readers improve their critical thinking article, on projective tests, continued in skills. y friend and colleague Scott this vein (Garb et al. 2003). He followed When I next saw him at the annual O. Lilienfeld died on Sep- this by editing his influential book Sci- meeting of the Association for Psy- tember 30, 2020, far too ence and Pseudoscience in Clinical Psychol- chological Science, I told him that I Msoon, at the age of fifty-nine (see obit- ogy, which reviewed numerous pseu- thought we could develop a test of psy- uary in January/February 2021 Skepti- doscientific clinical practices. Perhaps chological misconceptions based on the cal Inquirer, 10–11). Scott wrote an more importantly, it also reviewed ev- 50 Great Myths book. He encouraged amazing twenty-five articles for Skep- idence-based alternatives (Lilienfeld et me to start, and our nine-year collab- tical Inquirer and in total more than al. 2015). In 2007, he wrote a compre- oration was launched, as we developed 350 articles before his untimely death. hensive and shocking review of scien- the Test of Psychological Knowledge Readers can come to appreciate his tific studies showing that certain mental and Misconceptions and other mea- many important contributions to psy- health practices could harm (and in rare sures. Our first study with the new test chology and the cases actually kill) the people they were showed that students who tended to through his clear, incisive, and enter- supposed to help. For instance, ten- endorse more psychological miscon- taining writing, just as I did. year-old Candace Newmaker’s thera- ceptions also tended to rate more highly I first encountered Scott’s writing pists smothered her during a “rebirth- the scientific basis of pseudoscience and in an article on the dangers of pseu- ing” procedure in which they wrapped poorly supported practices, as well as doscience in clinical practice that he her in a blanket to simulate the birthing endorse more paranormal beliefs. They had written in honor of his winning an process. They falsely assumed that this also tended to endorse a more intui- early career achievement award (Lil- pseudoscientific treatment would attach tive and less rational scientific thinking ienfeld 1998). However, I did not meet her to her new guardian the way natural style, while scoring lower on a critical him until 2005 at a national conference birth was thought to (Lilienfeld 2007). thinking skills test (Bensley et al. 2014).

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 29 References More recently, we added measures of last year of his life, he coauthored an ar- belief in conspiracy theories to our re- ticle with me on assessment of unsub- Bensley, D. Alan, and Scott O. Lilienfeld. In press. Assessing belief in unsubstantiated search, showing that people who tend stantiated beliefs (Bensley and Lilien- claims. Scholarship of Teaching and Learning to believe in false and fictitious conspir- feld in press). He also collaborated with in Psychology. acy theories also tend to endorse more us on a large study predicting endorse- Bensley, D. Alan, Scott O. Lilienfeld, and Lauren psychological misconceptions, pseudo- ment of psychological misconceptions, Powell. 2014. A new measure of psychologi- cal misconceptions: Relations with academic science, and paranormal claims (Bensley, paranormal beliefs, and conspiracy the- background, critical thinking, and acceptance Lilienfeld, et al. 2020). ories from various thinking dispositions, of paranormal and pseudoscientific claims. Working with Scott was both fun such as intuitive thinking style, scien- Learning and Individual Differences 3: 9–18. Available online at http://doi.10.1016/j.lin- and instructive. At each stage of our tific skepticism, and cynicism (Bensley, dif.2014.07.009. projects, he provided new ideas and use- Watkins, et al. 2020). Despite my urging Bensley, D. Alan, Scott O. Lilienfeld, Krystal A. ful feedback. If I sent him the draft of him not to overdo it and only contrib- Rowan, et al. 2020. The generality of belief in unsubstantiated claims. Applied Cognitive an article, he assured me that he would ute as much as he was comfortable, two Psychology 34(1): 16–28, Available online at return comments within a few days. weeks before his death, he asked me if http://doi:org/10.1002/acp.3581. To me, this would have meant I would there was anything else he could do to Bensley, D. Alan, Cody T. Watkins, Scott O. Lilienfeld, et al. 2020. The generality of have it done at the end of a few days; for help with the article. dispositional predictors of belief in unsub- Scott, it meant returning his comments At the same time, Scott coauthored stantiated claims. Manuscript. in about two days. Yet his comments with his students two Skeptical In- Garb, Howard, James M. Wood, M. Theresa Nezworski, et al. 2003. The Rorschach ink- provided detailed and constructive crit- quirer articles, one (“The Nobel Dis- blot test, fortune tellers, and cold reading. icism. I especially appreciated how he ease”) published in the May/June 2020 Skeptical Inquirer 27(4). expanded the development of our theo- issue and the second in the September/ Heinzen, Thomas E., Scott O. Lilienfeld, and Susan A. Nolan. 2015. The Horse That retical explanations of our findings. October issue. In this last article, they Won’t Go Away: Clever Hans, Facilitated Collaborating with Scott led to a made two important points: that in- Communication and the Need for Clear great increase in my productivity. But tellectual humility should be a guiding Thinking. New York, NY: Worth Publishers. Lilienfeld, Scott O. 1998. Pseudoscience in con- it amazed me that at the same time he principle of the skeptical movement and temporary : What it is was also collaborating with many other that psychological research on this indi- and what we can do about it. The Clinical scholars on research projects that dif- vidual difference could inform us about Psychologist 51(4): 3–9. fered greatly from ours. These included ———. 2007. Psychological treatments that the nature of modern skepticism (Lil- cause harm. Perspectives on Psychological his important work on the psychology ienfeld et al. 2020). Science 2(1): 53–70. of personality and Lilienfeld, Scott O., Steven J. Lynn, John and his warnings with Sally Satel about Ruscio, et al. 2010. 50 Great Myths of Popular Few other psychologists Psychology. Chichester, UK: Wiley-Blackwell. the dangers of uncritical evaluation Lilienfeld, Scott O., Steven J. Lynn, and Jeffrey of neuroscience (Satel and Lilienfeld have done more to Lohr. (Eds.). 2015. Science and Pseudoscience 2013a; Satel and Lilienfeld 2013b). in Clinical Practice (2nd ed.). New York, NY: bring psychology to the . In his last few years, he was editor of Lilienfeld, Scott O., Steven J. Lynn, Laura L. Clinical Psychological Science, the flag- skeptical movement. Namy, et al. 2009. Psychology: From Inquiry to ship clinical psychology journal of the Understanding. London: Pearson Education. Lilienfeld, Scott O., Adelle. N. Strother, Shauna Association for Psychological Science. M. Bowes, et. al. 2020. Intellectual humility: All the while, he greatly supported the Few if any other psychologists have A guiding principle for the skeptical move- teaching of psychology, publishing in done more to bring psychology to the ment. Skeptical Inquirer 44(5): 32–37. Satel, Sally, and Scott O. Lilienfeld. 2013a. teaching journals, giving presentations skeptical movement and warn psy- Brainwashed: The Seductive Appeal of Mindless at national teaching conferences, and chologists about the dangers of pseu- Neuroscience. New York, NY: Basic Books. consulting with psychology programs. doscience. The skeptical movement ——— 2013b. Losing our minds in an age of brain science. Skeptical Inquirer 37(6). Notably, he was first author of an inno- and psychology have lost an influential Wood, James M., M. Teresa Nezworski, Scott O. vative introductory psychology textbook scholar, researcher, colleague, mentor, Lilienfeld, et al. 2003. What’s Wrong with the that incorporated strategies for improv- and friend. The good news is that his Rorschach? Science Confronts the Controversial ing critical thinking and the rejection of far-reaching influence lives on in his Inkblot Test. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass. D. Alan Bensley is a professor of psychol- pseudoscience and psychological mis- writings and in the fond memories of ogy at Frostburg State University and conceptions (Lilienfeld et al. 2009). He his students, colleagues, and collabora- author of the textbook Critical Thinking in also coauthored an entertaining book tors. If you were not fortunate enough Psychology and Everyday Life and many to help students think critically about to know Scott Lilienfeld in life, you can articles on the improvement of critical pseudoscience (Heinzen et al. 2016). still meet him in the many fine written thinking and the rejection of unsubstan- Needless to say, Scott was an inde- works he left us. Readers can search for tiated claims. fatigable worker. While sick, during the his SI articles at skepticalinquirer.org. •

30 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer Imagine a future where science and reason serve as the foundation for our lives.

A future where free expression is guaranteed everywhere around the world.

A future where old sectarian divisions have been overcome by the common bond of secular ideals.

This is the future CFI is working toward. Together, we can achieve it. It’s never too early to consider a planned gift—a legacy of reason.

Call today to reserve your copy of our gift-planning brochure—a helpful guide through the many options available to you.

Then speak to your trusted financial advisor or attorney. It’s as simple as that.

IT’S EASY Call Connie Skingel at 1-800-818-7071 x426 for your copy of this valuable information, or email [email protected]. There’s no obligation.

secularhumanism.org O CT OBER /N OVEMBER 2019 FREE I N QU IRY 43 Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 31 Life, the Quniverse, PART 1 and Everything,

STEPHANIE KEMMERER

QAnon is the ultimate conspiracy—the mothership; the “Choose-Your-Own Adventure” saucerful of codes and secrets. Some ex-followers help our investigator exam- ine its dangers and delusions.

This article was completed well before the events of January 6 at the U.S. Capitol. QAnon followers were among the leading participants in the assault.

n the 1999 film , the entire plot pivots on a that must make. He must choose between a red pill and blue pill; the red Ipill will wake him up, and the blue pill will allow him to go back to life as he has always known it. The film, with its clever mix of action and philosophy, is still as rele- vant today and may in fact be more relevant than when it premiered. Its pill metaphor has become inevitably enmeshed in the primordial stew of conspiratorial thinking and has been adopted by almost every fringe . Those “in the know” are considered the “red-pilled” or “woke,” while the rest of us “blue-pilled sheeple” toil away in our lives, unaware or unwilling to accept the existence of the “Deep State.” The blue-pilled stay asleep, while the red-pilled are schooled in the secret forbidden knowledge—that is somehow readily available for anyone to see online. Perhaps far more menacing than those who become red-pilled are those who give into “black-pilling,” a sense of utter indoctrinated em- braced by many mass shooters and (dangerous loners who often devolve to the point of violence). Enter QAnon, the ultimate conspiracy—the mothership; the umbrella; the “Choose-Your-Own-Adventure” saucerful of secrets and codes. (To be clear, QAnon is not officially affiliated with the Guy Fawkes–mask-wear- ing hacktivists known as Anonymous.) QAnon first appeared in October 2017 on the message board 4chan. This anonymous poster was not the first “Insider Anon” to attempt trolling the masses. There were several other Anon accounts, but QAnon stuck.

32 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer 32 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer “Q” claimed to have top secret Q Clearance, which is in fact Using the ultimate evil to inflict an actual thing. Q began posting Nostradamus-esque riddles damage against the ultimate good and codes and links, like an online scavenger hunt. Q’s ulti- mate secret? That Hollywood, financial, and political elites is the most fallacious, conspiratorial were secretly controlling the world all the while engaging basis for any misguided belief in Satanism, pedophilia, torture, and cannibalism to extract adrenachrome—a chemical said to prolong life—from chil- system. But it works, time and time dren. This myth is not new and played a part in another topic again. I investigated. While I was writing the three-part series on Nazi occult- ism for the podcast Even the Podcast Is Afraid, I dove into the Clever too is the idea of adding children into this mix. origins of fascism prior to World War II. One of the most While Satan represents the most evil force ever imagined, enduring and damning culprits that led to the Holocaust was children represent the most innocent and fragile of humans. a completely debunked, fictional—and plagiarized—book ti- Maybe you can get away with giving Satan a pass, but how tled The Protocols of the Meetings of the Learned Elders of , could anyone, ever, possibly condone the torture, rape, and commonly known as The Protocols of Zion. This book emerged murder of children? in 1903 and claimed to tell the “true” story of a meeting of a Using the ultimate evil to inflict damage against the ulti- secret cabal of Jewish people who controlled the world. mate good is the most fallacious, conspiratorial basis for any The QAnon conspiracy takes heavily from this concept, misguided belief system. But it works, time and time again. And it persists like the stains on Lady MacBeth’s hands. QAnon is also a stale leftover slice of “PizzaGate,” which Q’s ultimate secret? That Hollywood, emerged right before the 2016 election. It seemed to fade, financial, and political elites were and then it came back with a vengeance and morphed into QAnon and later on “WayfairGate,” which emerged in early secretly controlling the world all 2020 when people began speculating that expensive industrial the while engaging in Satanism, cabinets with human-sounding names were really children being sold online. pedophilia, torture, and cannibalism. The absurdity of QAnon might not have spread as far if it had remained where it had started. The Chan message boards are not for the casual internet user, so at the start, QAnon was not widespread or easily accessible. The problem began when the Chan users began sharing “Q Drops” (posts) on main- and indeed at its core, almost every false stream social media platforms. This made the Q “crumbs” ends up somehow naming the evil culprits as those of Jewish easy for widespread “baking.” (Q’s codes are called “crumbs” descent. or “breadcrumbs,” and followers are encouraged to “bake the Hollywood, financial, and political elites? It doesn’t take crumbs” into whatever nonsense they choose.) a bulletin board filled with red strings and pushpins to de- There are even QAnon aggregator sites such as QAnon. code what that means. Nor does it take much to understand pub, which contain all the Q Drops ever posted. While these the roots of the QAnon concept of Satanic cannibals who aggregator sites usually attract QAnon followers, they are also indulge in a sort of “blood sacrifice.” This stems all the way utilized by reporters and podcasters for legitimate research. back through the centuries to the Blood Libel Myth, which Another cryptic and biblical tenant of QAnon is their be- has somehow just been regurgitated through the years, being lief in “The Storm.” “The Storm Is Upon Us” is one of their molded to fit the of any particular era. catchphrases. So much energy has been put into the impor- Declaring one’s enemies Satanists is an ancient trope as tance of this storm, yet no one—not even Q, who may in fact well. It would be difficult for anyone to support such evil. be several people—has defined what exactly “The Storm” even In actuality, true Satanism, as defined by Anton LaVey, the is. Anything can be “The Storm,” and a lot of time and energy founder of the Church of Satan, is nothing more than atheism has been put into defining what it is. QAnon followers, once spiced up with a bit of mysterious “magick” and sexual am- they have received their “red-pill” indoctrination, declare that biguity. A careful reading of LaVey’s The Satanic Bible shows they have experienced “The Great Awakening.” it is nothing more than a misinterpretation of the made-up QAnon plays into the fantastical notions and concepts of text Enochian Aethyrs, with certain “angelic” words changed to heroic identity. Disgraced (and recently pardoned) General “demonic” ones. Because most people who buy into Satanic Michael Flynn, made a dog whistler reference to QAnon in are oblivious to the historical, etymological, and myth- one of his speeches, saying, “We have an Army of Digital ological roots of this concept, Satan is just the ultimate bad Soldiers.” QAnon followers rejoiced at this and adopted the guy stripped completely of his classical antihero roots and cast moniker “Digital Soldiers.” This is their ultimate fantasy; off into the darkness. their ultimate LARP (Live Action Role Playing). QAnon is

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 33 Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 33 a never-ending LARP; these “digital soldiers” brave the bat- At its core, QAnon represents one of the most extreme tlefields of the internet with and hashtags as their examples of fundamentalist, dominionist Christian, right- weapons. (“ War” is another term used by QAnon fol- wing belief systems. According to an internal FBI memo, lowers. Nothing about QAnon is decidedly new or original, QAnon—like many right-wing conspiracy organizations— and even their main catchphrase, “Where We Go One, We has been classified as a potentially terroristic threat, and the Go All,” was borrowed from a line in the film White Squall.) conspiracists are often listed as hate groups by the Southern Perhaps the most unapologetically comical aspect of the Law Center. Former “Moonie” cult member, depro- QAnon conspiracy is the “Jesus” figure; the force for ultimate grammer, and author Steven Hassan has classified QAnon good: Donald Trump, the man who in only four years reduced as a cult on his Freedom of Mind organization website. (His every core value of American democracy into a nonstop rally book The Cult of Trump is highly recommended. I suggest of contrarian beliefs, dog whistles to neofascist politics, and the Audible version, because it includes actual clips of Trump absolute pandemonium. Setting aside all the other ridiculous speaking to illustrate Hassan’s points.) plot twists of QAnon, Donald Trump as the hero lies some- where in between hyperbole and sheer lunacy. But this char- QApostates The most dangerous aspects of the QAnon conspiracy cult Setting aside all the other ridiculous are its erosive properties. While they have hijacked and hid- plot twists of QAnon, Donald Trump den behind hashtags such as #SaveTheChildren, QAnon has actually been the cause of destroying lives and tearing fami- as the hero lies somewhere in lies apart. On the SubReddit “QAnon Casualties,” innumer- between hyperbole and sheer lunacy. able posters discuss how either their former belief in QAnon or a loved one’s current belief has led to everything from the loss of a job to divorce. Families have been torn apart by a cultic belief that claims to want to “save the children.” Jitarth Jadeja is perhaps the most well-known former acterization of Trump as the savior has led to the spread of QAnon follower and was in fact catapulted to a sort of re- Q. While not every Trump supporter is a follower of QAnon, luctant fame due to his postings on this SubReddit. Jadeja, every QAnon follower is a supporter of Trump. who currently resides in Australia, says he was slowly drawn

34 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer 34 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer into the dark world of QAnon after he experienced what can as predicted, he also found that it is a phrase Trump has used only be described as a sense of disillusionment and repeatedly in the past. That was the moment Jadeja realized disbelief after Trump won the 2016 election. Jadeja began to he had been lied to. It was a moment of harsh self-realization. question how such a thing could happen and began to seek From his experiences, looking back, he was able to see all alternative views of reality, because Trump’s win represented of the clues that it was fake, clues that he could not see at the the antithesis of reality as he had known it. He found himself time he was enmeshed in it. QAnon is all about the misuse of gravitating toward , and the slippery slope finally information and a clever PsyOp of disinformation. (PsyOp is landed him right into the gaping maw of QAnon. short for Psychological Operations, which is used by the mil- I interviewed Jadeja by telephone. itary and defense agencies. It is the usage of tactical psychol- The further he slipped into the “rabbit hole,” the more ogy, akin to some of the concepts of Sun Tzu’s The Art of War.) he became withdrawn from the real world. “Everyone who The way out of QAnon is through facts and knowledge. “The falls into QAnon is miserable,” Jadeja says. Oftentimes these more people know about it, the more likely they are to leave people already have a mental or emotional instability, and they it,” Jadeja told me. The QAnon crowd misuses information to likely possess some form of social dysfunction as well as low suit their needs, while disregarding actual information. “Peo- self-esteem. But Q is there to pick them up: “QAnon tells ple use data the way a drunk uses a lamp post—for support them they can be a hero. It’s about being a hero and getting rather than illumination.” credit for it,” adds Jadeja. Jadeja was thrust into the world of the media after his Despite the cries about saving the “Mole Children” being recovery, when he began posting his story in the SubRed- kept as sex slaves in underground tunnels and their fury at dit. He began receiving requests for interviews and at first some imagined “Deep State,” QAnon is ultimately about one declined. He later realized that his story of recovery could thing: “It’s not about kids. It’s not about the cabal. It’s about possibly help others find a similar path. While Jadeja is by no being heroes,” Jadeja says. Jadeja spent quite some time in the means the only outspoken former QAnon follower, he says, Q Hole, as a follower from December 2017 until June 2019. “I’m the most visible.” The tipping point came for him after a Q post predicted Conspiracy culture received a gift in the form of the coro- that Trump would use the phrase “Tippy top.” (Q Drops that navirus pandemic. With more people stuck at home with turn out to be “true” are called Q Proofs; sometimes the drops more time on their hands (mixed with dangerous algorithms themselves are meant as a proof, such as the “Tippy Top” used on social media platforms and YouTube), more people post.) Jadeja discovered that while Trump did use the phrase began sinking into the darkness. The pandemic itself became

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 35 Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 35 the center of many conspiracies, with many referring to it as It wasn’t just Fox News that gave Trump his popularity. a hoax or a “Plandemic.” Rockatansky points to mainstream media as well, which have One such casualty of the pandemic is Leila Hay from been on “a four-year ‘hate tour’ to make up for the fact that Northern England. She fell into QAnon right around the they kinda created this guy.” He says, “Our brains have been time the lockdowns began and emerged after only a short collectively cooked by [the] media, especially post–Cold War period of about six months. I was also able to interview her. American films from the ’80s and ’90s. People are still trying “I got out right before the point where I couldn’t get out,” to fit reality into archetypes that were created then.” says Hay, adding, “I have a network that’s been very helpful to Rockatansky stresses that one of the most unique aspects me.” Hay points out two aspects of her personality that seem of QAnon is its real-time malleability and ability to adjust to to apply to many QAnon followers: “I’m very obsessive. I’m events as they occur. “I think they know that battle can never also quite vulnerable.” Her entry was by way of the algorithms be won because it’s not real. … You always get to be angry; used on YouTube, which has since wiped a lot of QAnon con- you always get to be fighting. It’s a comfortable place. … The tent from its platform. “It’s a toxic environment; there’s no real fun of it is that it gets to keep going. There’s never going to be intelligence behind it.” any real answers. Once you have answers, you’re never going Hay’s escape from the Q Hole came by way of Twitter. She to be satisfied with them.” came across a page for a podcast titled QAnon Anonymous. Now, in the aftermath of the 2020 election, with the out- Thinking it was a pro-QAnon podcast, she found herself come being decidedly what Q did not predict, QAnon fol- drawn into the posts. She soon realized it was a decidedly lowers are in a state of doubled-down denial, sentiments that anti-QAnon podcast, but she kept reading, emerging once are disturbingly being echoed by other elected officials and more into the light. newly elected officials such as Marjorie Taylor Greene, who The QAnon Anonymous podcast is inarguably one of the will soon be our most “red-pilled” member of the House of biggest thorns in the side of QAnon and Q “Adjacent” fol- Representatives. lowers. The three hosts—Travis View, Julien Feeld, and Jake Some QAnon followers have made threats against their Rockatansky—present easily digestible and educated facts own lives or those of their families if Trump does not main- that debunk QAnon and other conspiracies. The episodes are tain his stranglehold on the presidency. Despite the new con- well-researched, well-written, and often both frightening and spiracies that arose in the wake of Joe Biden’s historic win hilarious at the same time. The hosts have even gone under- and Trump’s refusal to concede, as of January 20, 2021, at cover to several QAnon rallies and conferences, most recently noon, there will be a new president. But how far will QAnon to one of the Arizona “Stop the Steal” post-election protests, followers go when that happens? where they encountered the “Frog Man” himself, Alex Jones. Fredrick Brennan (a.k.a. “Hot Wheels”), the original Rockatansky expressed joy in hearing how they helped founder of the message board 8chan (now known as 8kun), Hay escape the cult of Q. Diving so deeply into such a dark has made some very frightening predictions of what may topic has its downsides for all three of the hosts. “We’ve had come along with the change of power on January 20. Brennan is not only the original founder of 8chan; he also lived in the Philippines and worked alongside Jim Watkins. The QAnon Anonymous podcast is Watkins has been in the spotlight in the aftermath of the inarguably one of the biggest thorns election, spouting conspiracies about the Dominion voting in the side of QAnon and Q “Adjacent” system. Watkins has a stake in these conspiracies. He has formed a Q Caucus and stands to profit from the proliferation followers. of QAnon. Some speculate that Watkins may actually be Q. If he isn’t, he has a direct line of communication to whoever is. Brennan ultimately remanded ownership of 8chan to Wat- to figure out ways to keep ourselves grounded and not get kins in 2015. (Q originally began posting on 4chan in Oc- taken along for the ride.” He says the pandemic definitely tober 2017 but migrated to 8chan on September 19, 2018.) played a very big role in the proliferation of Q but reiter- 8chan ultimately turned into a cesspool of filth, with many ates the importance of the 2016 election as well. “The whole users posting images of child pornography and racist rheto- world, their minds were broken by the event, and I think a lot ric. 8chan had also included postings from persons who later of people were sure that one thing was going to happen and went on to commit mass shootings. when it didn’t happen, what they understand about the world Of QAnon followers, Brennan says, “They haven’t had to was ripped away from them.” reckon with the Biden administration, and that is the thing “There’s a corporate interest in driving division; in not we were afraid would lead to violence. … I don’t necessarily being able to empathize with the people you’re instructed to see bright times ahead at least for political violence. … When hate,” he says. There is no way around it. America has become Trump is officially out of office, I just don’t know where their more divided in the past four years, and at the helm of this narrative can go next.” divisive ship is Trump, steering us straight toward an iceberg Brennan points to this bizarre doubling-down and says, at full speed. “As far as they’re concerned there’s going to be a second

36 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer Trump administration. … I don’t know how some of them that can never be won. It is a real-time epic fight between move on” from Biden’s win. He says there is a very real possi- good and evil, with the goal posts constantly moving and the bility that “some of them might be willing to commit violent enemies ever increasing. The damage it causes to people can acts.” Of the QAnon followers who have been arrested in re- be so life-altering that there is no turning back, but as with cent years, he says, “What we’ve seen are some of the dumb Jadeja and Hay as proof, there is hope for recovery and a life ones get[ting] caught.” out of the darkness—a life that is productive and filled with Brennan has been unabashedly outspoken against Watkins logic, science, and reason. • and 8kun in recent years. His opinions on Watkins even led to a last-minute escape from the Philippines, where he had re- Part 2 will appear in the next issue of Skeptical Inquirer. sided for several years. Brennan made a social media post that made reference to Watkins possibly having . Due to Acknowledgments the strict libel laws in the Philippines, Watkins (claiming to Special thanks to Jitarth Jadeja, Leila Hay, Jake Rockatansky of the be a champion of “free speech”) pressed charges. QAnon Anonymous podcast, and Frederick Brennan for their phone Even a few hours in a jail cell, especially in the Philippines, interviews. would almost certainly lead to Brennan’s demise. His nick- name “Hot Wheels” refers to the fact that he is wheelchair xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx bound. He is a very small man and was born with osteogenesis xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx imperfecta (“brittle bone disease” such as depicted in the film Stephanie Kemmerer is a researcher and writer Unbreakable). Knowing he would not survive jail, Brennan for the podcast Even the Podcast Is Afraid and fled from the Philippines just in the nick of time. an occasional contributor for the Southern Oddities podcast, both owned by Ordis Studios Brennan is very knowledgeable and has been a staunch (https://www.ordisstudios.com/). She cur- fighter of the Q cult. Brennan has had firsthand experience rently resides in Sunnyvale, California, and with Watkins and the tumult and controversy surrounding is interested in true crime, the paranormal, Watkins and his unapologetic grifts. Brennan was never a be- politics, and conspiracy culture. The podcasts liever in QAnon, yet his journey shares similarities with those are available on all streaming services. Her who have left the Q cult, and like the stories that stem from Twitter handle is @mcpasteface. She wrote Q, his journey is still unfolding. “The Unexplained Files: TV Mystery-Mongering” in our January/February With QAnon, the battle is one that never ends and one 2014 issue.

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 37 Science: The Gold Standard of Truth Wanton attacks on scientific truths and even the existence of truth itself are profoundly troubling. Science’s history is a spectacular cascade of truths.

RICHARD DAWKINS

hat is truth? You can speak of moral truths and U.S. government has moved in that direction. World-weary aesthetic truths, but I’m not concerned with those cynics sigh that all politicians lie; it goes with the territory. here, important as they may be. By truth I shall But normal politicians lie as a last resort and try to cover it meanW the kind of truth that a commission of inquiry or a jury up. Donald Trump is in a class of his own. For him, lying is trial is designed to establish. I hold the view that scientific not a last resort. It never occurs to him to do anything else. truth is of this commonsense kind, although the methods of And far from covering up a lie, his well-named “base” will science may depart from common sense, and its truths may love him the more for it and will believe the lie, however far- even offend it. fetched and shamelessly self-serving. Fortunately, Trump is Commissions of inquiry may fail, but we assume a truth too incompetent to fulfil Orwell’s , and anyway he is lurking there even if we don’t have enough evidence. Juries is on the way out—albeit kicking and screaming and trying sometimes get it wrong, and falsehoods are often sincerely be- to pull the house down with him as he goes. lieved. Scientists, too, can make mistakes and publish errone- A more insidious threat to truth comes from certain ous conclusions. That’s all regrettable but not deeply sinister. schools of academic philosophy. There is no objective truth, What is profoundly troubling, however, is any wanton attack they say, no natural reality, only social constructs. Extreme on truth itself: the value of truth, the very existence of truth. exponents attack logic and reason themselves, as tools of ma- This is what concerns me here. nipulation or “patriarchal” weapons of domination. The phi- losopher and historian of science Noretta Koertge wrote in What is profoundly troubling is any Skeptical Inquirer in 1995 (and things haven’t gotten any wanton attack on truth itself: the better since): Instead of exhorting young women to prepare for a variety value of truth, the very existence of of technical subjects by studying science, logic, and math- ematics, Women’s Studies students are now being taught truth. that logic is a tool of domination … the standard norms and methods of scientific inquiry are sexist because they are incompatible with “women’s ways of knowing.” The authors George Orwell’s O’Brien held that two plus two equals five of the prize-winning book with this title report that the if the Party decrees it so. The “Ministry of Truth” existed for majority of the women they interviewed fell into the cate- the purpose of disseminating lies. In the past four years, the gory of “subjective knowers,” characterized by a “passionate

38 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer rejection of science and scientists.” These “subjectivist” reveals a definite truth, no matter whether the mathematician women see the methods of logic, analysis, and abstraction as “identifies as” female, male, or hippopotamus. If you decide to “alien territory belonging to men” and “value intuition as a safer and more fruitful approach to truth.” fly to that conference, Newton’s Laws and Bernoulli’s Prin- ciple will see you safe. And no, Newton’s Principia is not a That way madness lies. As reported by Barbara Ehrenreich “rape manual” as was ludicrously said by the noted feminist and Janet McIntosh in The Nation in 1997, at an interdis- philosopher Sandra Harding. It is a supreme work of genius ciplinary seminar the social psychologist Phoebe Ellsworth by one of Homo sapiens’s most sapient specimens—who also praised the virtues of the experimental method. Audience happened to be a not very nice man. members protested that the experimental method was “the It is true that Newton’s Laws are approximations that brainchild of white Victorian males.” Ellsworth acknowl- need modifying under extreme circumstances, such as when edged this but pointed out that the experimental method had objects travel near the speed of light. Those philosophers of led to, for example, the discovery of DNA. This was greeted science who fixate on the case of Newton and Einstein love with disdain: “You believe in DNA?” to say that scientific truths are only ever provisional approx- imations that have so far resisted falsification. But there are You can’t not “believe in DNA.” DNA many scientific truths—we share an ancestor with baboons is a fact. The DNA molecule is a is one example—that are just plain true, in the same sense as “New Zealand lies south of the equator” is not a provisional doublehelix, a long spiral staircase hypothesis pending possible falsification. with exactly four kinds of steps The physics of the very small also goes beyond Newton. Quantum theory is too weird for most human brains to ac- called nucleotides. commodate intuitively. Yet the accuracy with which its predic- tions are fulfilled is shattering and beyond all doubt. If I can’t You can’t not “believe in DNA.” DNA is a fact. The DNA get my head around the weirdness of a theory that is validated molecule is a double helix, a long spiral staircase with exactly by such predictions, that’s just too bad. There’s no law that four kinds of steps called nucleotides. The one-dimensional If your philosophy dismisses all that sequence of these four nucleotide “letters” is the genetic code that specifies the nature of every animal, plant, fungus, bacte- as patriarchal domination, so much rium, and archaean. DNA sequences can be compared, letter the worse for your philosophy. for letter, between any creature and any other, much as one might compare folios of Hamlet. From this we can compute a numerical figure for the closeness of cousinship of any two says truths about nature have to be understandable by the creatures and, hence, eventually build up a complete family human brain. We have to live with the limitations of a brain tree of all life. For, whether we like it or not, it is a true fact that was built by Darwinian natural selection of hunter-gath- that we are cousins of kangaroos, we share an ancestor with starfish, and we and the starfish and the kangaroo share a more remote ancestor with jellyfish. The DNA code is a dig- ital code, differing from computer codes only in being qua- ternary instead of binary. We know the precise details of the intermediate stages by which the code is read in our cells, and its four-letter alphabet translated, by molecular assembly-line machines called ribosomes, into a twenty-letter alphabet of amino acids, the building blocks of protein chains and hence of bodies. If your philosophy dismisses all that as patriarchal domi- nation, so much the worse for your philosophy. Perhaps you should stay away from doctors with their experimentally tested and go to a shaman or witch doctor instead. If you need to travel to a conference of like-minded philos- ophers, you’d better not go by air. Planes fly because a lot of scientifically trained mathematicians and engineers got their sums right. They did not use “intuitive ways of knowing.” Whether they happened to be white and male, or sky-blue- pink and hermaphrodite, is supremely, triumphantly irrele- vant. Logic is logic is logic, no matter if the individual who wields it also happens to wield a penis. A mathematical proof

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 39 erer ancestors on the African savanna, where medium-sized patients, nor the doctors running the tests, nor the nurses ad- things such as antelopes and mates moved at medium speeds. ministering the doses, nor the analysts evaluating the results It’s actually remarkable that human brains—even if only a are allowed to know which patients were given the placebo minority of them—are capable of doing modern physics at and which the drug, until all the results are in. I myself con- all. It is an open question whether there remain deep truths ducted a double-blind test of dowsing (water divining). It was about the universe that human brains not only don’t yet un- pathetically touching to witness the sincere distress of the derstand but can never understand. I find that open question professional dowsers when they failed—every single one of immensely exciting, whatever the answer to it may be. them—to perform above chance level. The poor things had Theologians love their “Mysteries,” such as the “Mystery never before been tested under double-blind conditions. They of the ” (how can God be both three and one at the had never before been deprived of whatever subliminal cues same time?) and the “Mystery of transubstantiation” (how can normally inform their “subjective ways of knowing.” I treasure the contents of a chalice be simultaneously wine and blood?). When challenged to defend such stuff, they may retort that Science is also humble. We may scientists too have their mysteries. Quantum theory is mys- know what we know, but we also terious to the point of being downright perverse. What’s the difference? I’ll tell you the difference, and it’s a big one. Quan- know what we don’t know. tum theory is validated by predictions fulfilled to so many decimal places that it’s been compared to predicting the width the remark of a homeopathic doctor who, when his methods failed under double-blind testing conditions, said, “You see. This is why we don’t do double-blind tests any more. They never work!” A layperson’s version of the pernicious philosophy I men- tioned earlier is the familiar bleat of, “Well it may not be true for you, but it is true for me.” No. It’s either true or it isn’t. For both of us. As somebody once said (authorship multiply attributed), you are entitled to your own opinion but not to your own facts. Some of what I have claimed here about scientific truth may come across as arrogant. So might my disparagement of certain schools of philosophy. Science really does know a lot about what is true, and we do have methods in place for find- ing out a lot more. We should not be reticent about that. But science is also humble. We may know what we know, but we also know what we don’t know. Scientists love not knowing because they can go to work on it. The history of science’s in- creasing knowledge, especially during the past four centuries, is a spectacular cascade of truths following one on the other. We may choose to call it a cumulative increase in the number of truths that we know. Or we can tip our hat to (a better class of ) philosophers and talk of successive approximations toward of North America to within one hairsbreadth. Theological yet-to-be-falsified provisional truths. Either way, science can theories make no predictions at all, let alone testable ones. properly claim to be the gold standard of truth. • Of course, not all the sciences can boast the formidable Evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins is the accuracy of physics. We biologists stand in awe of the LIGO author of such books as The Selfish Gene, experiments in which gravitational waves, having traveled a Unweaving the Rainbow, The Magic of Reality, billion light-years, are detected by measurements accurate Science in the Soul, Outgrowing God, and a to less than a thousandth the width of a proton. Biological memoir, Brief Candle in the Dark. He is a fellow experimenters have to confront problems such as subjec- of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry and a tive bias of the experimenter—“intuitive ways of knowing.” board member of the Center for Inquiry. This Medical scientists have perfected safeguards aimed precisely article first appeared in the Christmas 2020 against intuitive ways of knowing, because these are highly issue of The Spectator under a different title. likely to mislead. The double-blind control test has become At the author’s request, we here restore his the gold standard for demonstrating the efficacy of a medi- original title. It is published here by permission. cal treatment. A new drug must be compared with a placebo Author image courtesy of David Shankbone. control, and the comparison tested statistically. Neither the

40 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer Behe, Bias, and Bears (Oh My!) Another swing and a miss for intelligent design creationism.

NATHAN H. LENTS

fter a series of stinging defeats in the U.S. courts, one ents itself as a science website, it frequently covers social issues branch of biblical creationism mutated into a neo- such as abortion, religious freedom, gay marriage, euthanasia, creationist movement known as intelligent design and their favorite bogeyman: Marxism. (ID)A in the late 1980s. The selective pressure that led to this Another sign of the pseudoscientific nature of ID propo- evolution was a single line in the 1987 Edwards decision by nents is their confident assertions regarding the imminent Supreme Court Justice William Brennan that emphasized ascendance of ID. Readers are assured that scientists are con- differing views of human origins might be permissible in fused and desperate because the end is nigh for ideas such as public schools if they were driven by “secular intent.” This led the big bang and the whole of evolutionary theory. Claims some creationists to strip the religious language and present such as, “Given a ‘primal blueprint’ that preceded the first life, their ideas as purely scientific. No serious person was fooled the solution can only be intelligent design,” are offered as sci- by this game of rhetorical dress-up, least of all a George W. entific certainties even though scientists who actually study Bush–appointed federal judge who ruled that ID is not sci- the origins of life see no such blueprint. Similarly, the past ten entific and cannot be divorced from its religious motivations years have seen unprecedented discoveries that help illumi- ( Jones 2005). (For a history of the modern ID movement, see nate our evolutionary past, yet, as Evolution News reports it, Barbara Forrest and Paul R. Gross’s 2007 book, Creationism’s the discoveries of the 2010s “actually weakened the evidence Trojan Horse: The Wedge of Intelligent Design.) for human evolution.” Not a single active paleoanthropologist Among the most obvious signs of the pseudoscientific na- would agree. ture of ID is the almost complete absence of relevantly qual- ified experts. Its leaders are mostly theologians, philosophers, The Author and historians, along with some physicians, engineers, and mathematicians, but there are shockingly few scientists—and One of the very few legitimately credentialed molecular even fewer biologists—and almost none have research expe- biologists who subscribes to ID is Lehigh University bio- rience in evolutionary or molecular biology. This gives them chemist Michael Behe. While most ID material is unworthy no pause in attempting to challenge the entire scientific es- of a response, Behe is a clear and engaging writer with par- tablishment, not through original research but through books ticular command of the molecular details of life. He is nei- and articles published on Evolution News, the most influen- ther a rube nor a neophyte and writes with a polished veneer tial ID-supporting website. Although Evolution News pres- of scientific authority. In his 1996 book Darwin’s Black

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 41 Box, Behe asserts that many Behe accepts the true age of the earth and admits that the biological structures harbor evidence for the common ancestry of all life, including hu- the property of irreducible mans, is overwhelming. He sees a gap in evolutionary theory, complexity, being so intri- however, in explaining the emergence of new kinds of organ- cately complex with mul- isms and concludes that it must require the intervention of the tiple interconnected parts designer in some way. He stops short of providing evidence that they could not possi- for the intervention and instead presents ID as the default bly have evolved piecemeal, position left standing after he shows how the unguided forces because the overall struc- of evolution are insufficient for accounting for the origins and ture has no function until diversity of life. all parts are in place. To be But Behe does not show that. Darwin Devolves is mostly sure, the challenge that irre- dedicated to explaining, often in great detail, how some ducible complexity posed to high-profile examples of evolutionary research actually favor the field of molecular evo- his view, rather than the interpretation of the scientists who lution was rhetorical, not did the work. As I will show, his discussion of every single scientific, but it did draw example is misleading, sometimes egregiously so, insofar as he attention to these import- exaggerates the evidence that supports his view and ignores or ant questions and inspired dismisses the evidence that doesn’t. But even more damning Michael Behe. Courtesy of the Lehigh University scientists to more fully flesh is his near-complete omission of any discussion of the molec- Biological Sciences website. out the theoretical frame- ular and evolutionary forces that are responsible for the very work for how some com- phenomena he focuses on. plex molecular structures evolve and to better explain this framework to the public. For that reason, Darwin’s Black Box The Omissions could be charitably seen as a contribution to science. If Behe seeks to support his claim that standard evolution- Every single one of Behe’s examples of irreducibly complex ary forces are insufficient to generate adaptive innovations, molecules and structures has since been thoroughly debunked one would think he would dedicate quite a bit of time to by scientists. Russell Doolittle taught us how the blood clot- discussing those forces and why scientists are wrong about ting cascade likely evolved, with no reliance on incredibly them. Instead, he takes the opposite approach and either unlikely steps (Doolittle et al. 2008). The bacterial flagellum summarily dismisses them or ignores them altogether. For evolved from the type III secretion machinery (Miller 2004). example, one molecular mechanism that has driven other- The vertebrate eye, and its stunningly similar counterpart in wise incredibly improbable evolutionary events is horizontal cephalopods, evolved in discrete steps of increasing, not irre- gene transfer, when genetic material moves from one species ducible, complexity (Lamb et al. 2008). Yet Behe continues to another, usually through a virus (Keeling and Palmer to trumpet these examples and declares them “unchallenged.” 2008). This phenomenon is most famous for the origin of mitochondria and chloroplasts, foundational events in the The Thesis evolution of complex cells, but it has been shown to occur Recently, I reviewed in more mundane instances as well. For example, deer ticks Behe’s latest book, Darwin gained new defenses against bacteria through genes that Devolves, for Science, the came from the bacteria themselves (Chou et al. 2015). top scientific research jour- While certainly not a common occurrence, horizontal gene nal in the United States transfer can, in one momentous instant, have profound (Lents et al. 2019). Behe effects in the evolutionary potential of a lineage. Despite its argues that unguided ran- importance in the very concepts that Behe tackles, he does dom mutations serve pri- not mention this concept even once in Darwin Devolves. marily to damage genes and Also unmentioned by Behe is exaptation, the co-opting of that doing so is occasion- a structure, be it a molecule or anatomy, for a new function. ally good for the organ- For example, two of the three bones of the mammalian mid- ism, leading to adaptation dle ear were co-opted from jaw bones in our reptilian ances- through natural selection of tors. Wings, feathers, and swim bladders are other well-worn these damaging-but-advan- anatomical examples, but exaptation is even more prolific at tageous mutations. Thus, the molecular scale. With the subtlest of tweaks, enzymes can Behe accepts that micro- catalyze different reactions, genes can be expressed in dif- evolution through random ferent tissues, and proteins can find new binding partners. mutation can diversify organisms into species and genera— Though Behe does not bother to address this, the molecular and perhaps families—but that something more is needed possibilities of exaptation are endless, particularly when gene for large-scale evolutionary transitions. duplication is involved. In the age of genomics, the evidence

42 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer for molecular exaptation is abundant. artificial on purpose. There is unlimited food, static tempera- Speaking of gene duplication, Behe barely mentions this ture, and high oxygen, and there are no competitors, patho- phenomenon either, despite it being a common first step in gens, or immune system to challenge them. It is essentially evolutionary innovation and diversification. When a gene has an endless race at breakneck speed with strong competitive an essential function, it is tightly constrained by natural se- advantage for streamlining, efficiency, and growth accel- lection, and almost any mutation would cause harm and be eration. The LTEE was designed to detect the molecular eliminated. When a gene has been duplicated, however, the mechanisms of evolution and has succeeded in spectacular original copy can retain essential functions while the random- detail, earning Lenski membership in the National Academy ness of mutation and recombination fiddle around with the of Sciences (Good et al. 2017). new one. In a powerful 2012 article, completely unmentioned Behe is correct that the bacteria have adapted to this pe- by Behe, Dan Andersson and colleagues showed that gene culiar environment by ditching basically anything that slows duplication—through random mutations—can lead bacterial them down, especially genes that aren’t useful in this setting. cells to evolve the ability to synthesize an amino acid that they He fails to mention that plenty of gene products show en- were previously unable to (Näsvall et al. 2012). What Behe hanced function as well. Further, some of the bacteria even claims evolution can’t do, scientists have already shown it can. developed the ability to eat citrate, which is included in the growth broth to assist the absorption of iron, not as a food Behe barely mentions gene source (Blount et al. 2012). Behe begrudgingly admits this but dismisses it as a “sideshow” and declines to explain to his duplication despite it being a readers that the bacteria achieved this feat by reactivating a common first step in evolutionary nonfunctional gene through an elaborate genomic rearrange- ment. Yes, this was a very improbable event, but that is exactly innovation and diversification. the point. Behe’s whole thesis is that the odds of getting new functions from unguided mutations are so low that they just don’t happen. But the LTEE proves they do. Behe fails to discuss genetic recombination as well. It is beyond frustrating that Behe claims that evolution has no Behe’s whole thesis is that the means to generate adaptive innovations when not only do such mechanisms exist but there is a rich literature of research odds of getting new functions from on them that he simply ignores. This is part of a larger pattern unguided mutations are so low that by ID proponents, and Behe in particular, of ignoring the very evolutionary mechanisms that they claim do not exist. they just don’t happen. But the long- Furthermore, Darwin Devolves, like Behe’s previous two term E. coli evolution experiment books, frequently discusses evolution and natural selection as though they are synonymous or as though natural selection proves they do. is the sole engine of evolution. But natural selection is but one evolutionary force, albeit the most famous one. Mutation, genetic drift, sexual selection, recombination, horizontal gene Behe also takes aim at Darwin’s finches. He describes the transfer, frequency-dependent selection, and neutral theory remarkable work that Rosemary and Peter Grant have done all contribute to the toolkit of evolution. When Behe claims on these famous birds, especially in regard to their genomes that natural selection alone cannot account for the rich mo- before and after a drought that briefly but significantly re- lecular biodiversity we observe, he’s absolutely correct. Rather duced their numbers (Grant and Grant 1993). But Behe uses than looking to the designer, he should look to some of the the opportunity to scoff at the diversification of the finches discoveries we’ve made in the past 160 years (Darwin 1859). in the first place, which took place when ancestors from the mainland found themselves stranded on the island two mil- The Misinterpretations lion years ago; their descendants have since adapted to the To support his view, Behe focuses his attention on several local habitats. He is unimpressed with their diversification of the most high-profile examples of evolution research into as many as eighteen species across five genera, adapting and attempts to reinterpret them. For example, he spends to a wide variety of foods, including mature leaves, a resource nearly an entire chapter explaining how the long-term E. that no other bird species is known to subside on (Grant coli evolution experiment (LTEE) shows how mutation 1981). and natural selection serve only to “break or blunt genes.” Bizarrely, Behe compares the diversification of the finches Richard Lenski, the architect of the LTEE for thirty years on the Galapagos to the adaptive radiation of animals during and 70,000 bacterial generations, has responded to Behe the Cambrian explosion, more than 500 million years ago, at length in a series of blog posts (Lenski 2019). It is hard complaining that the finches didn’t evolve “at least one to overstate just how badly Behe misinterprets the LTEE, crummy new phylum, class, or order.” Besides occurring over a including the fact that the controlled environment is highly much longer period of time and in smaller, simpler, and faster

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 43 reproducing animals, the Cambrian explosion was a global APOB … contribut[e] to the effective clearance of cholesterol diversification event that occurred when the animal kingdom from the blood” clearly imply that they believe that polar bear was just getting started. Dry land hadn’t even been fully colo- APOB is better at its job, not worse (Liu et al. 2014). nized by life yet, and new niches were opening up all over the Let’s look at these mutations. First, they are not evenly planet. In contrast, most of the niches that Behe is surprised distributed throughout the protein. More than half the polar that the finches didn’t adapt to were already occupied when bear–specific changes are in a small region called the N-ter- they got there. That Behe fails to grasp this reveals a poor understanding of not just ecology but evolutionary theory it- Behe’s reading of the polar bear self—the idea he has spent the past three decades critiquing. The Misunderstandings research seems to begin and end The opening section of Darwin Devolves on the evolution with the PolyPhen predictions. This is of polar bears may be the most erroneous example in the problematic for several reasons. book. Scientists recently sequenced the full genomes of polar bears and their closest relatives, brown bears, and were able to approximate the common ancestral genome using pandas minal domain, which comprises just 22 percent of the protein. as a reference (Liu et al. 2014). Because polar bears are a As the authors state, “This domain encodes the surface re- relatively young species—just several hundred thousand gion and contains the majority of functional domains for lipid years old—the genetic differences between them and their transport.” Proteins can be damaged by mutations virtually close cousins are relatively modest and easy to scrutinize. anywhere. Enhancing mutations, however, must usually be The scientists generated lists of polar bear genes that have placed precisely in the domain that performs the enhanced undergone recent evolution. Not surprisingly, polar bears function. Thus, the location of the APOB mutations provides have undergone much more change than brown bears, who more support that enhancement, not diminishment, has oc- pretty much live in the same way that their ancestors did. As curred. Behe sees it, the engine of polar bear evolution was the accu- The evidence on which Behe bases his claim that polar mulation of mutations that break or diminish their genes. bear APOB has been damaged comes from his reading of the The gene Behe discusses most is APOB, which codes for authors’ presentation of predictions made by a computer pro- apolipoprotein B, the main protein responsible for clearing cholesterol from our blood following a high-fat meal. Behe gram called PolyPhen-2. This program can predict whether a declares this “the most strongly selected mutation” (it’s actu- given mutation diminishes the function of a protein based on ally the second-most, and he later acknowledged this error). how closely it corresponds to human genetic variation that is APOB has several polar bear–specific differences and has un- known to cause pathology. The PolyPhen tool was designed dergone strong positive selection, implying that it is import- to identify disease-causing mutations in genomic data col- ant to their survival and success. This makes sense because lected from human patients, a very different purpose than polar bears live mostly on seal meat, a diet that is very high in Behe’s. Trained with large data sets of human genomic vari- saturated fat and cholesterol, much higher than their brown ation, the program predicts whether a given mutation alters bear cousins who eat leaves, berries, and sometimes fish. Yet, the structure of a protein and, if so, labels these possibly or they do not suffer much from the heart disease that we know probably damaging. Mutations that likely cause little or no can often result from a high cholesterol diet. Presumably, structural change in the protein, PolyPhen calls “benign.” polar bear APOB must be highly optimized for handling the On the other hand, the program has no way to predict high cholesterol burden. enhancing mutations. That would require that it somehow Somehow, Behe draws the opposite conclusion. This knows all the functions of every protein and how those func- is puzzling because he notes that humans and mice with tions are carried out. There is no database of enhancing genetic mutations that diminish the function of APOB are more variation in humans or any other species. Behe and others prone to suffer heart disease. But polar bears do not get at Evolution News seem not to know this. They repeatedly cholesterol-driven heart disease, so the logical inference to insist that the program does not list any “constructive mu- draw from these data is that polar bear APOB is enhanced, not tations” in polar bears, which is not even a possible output diminished, by the mutations. of the program! Importantly, what PolyPhen calls damaging This is where it becomes crystal clear that Behe is blinded (simply because the structure has been altered) could actually by his bias. Although there is no reason to conclude that polar be a new or enhanced function, a point not lost on the study bear APOB has been diminished based on the data alone, be- authors. In an interview with New Scientist, one of them re- cause that is what Behe was hoping to see, he did. In fact, he peated their conclusion that polar bear APOB likely makes even seems to believe that the authors of the paper agree, cholesterol clearance “more efficient” (Coghlan 2014). claiming that “they determined that the mutations were very Behe’s reading of the polar bear research seems to begin likely to be damaging.” Having read the paper from title to and end with the PolyPhen predictions. This is problematic references, I can confidently say that the authors determined for several reasons. First, whereas damaging mutations might no such thing. In fact, sentences such as “adaptive changes in occur more commonly than enhancing ones, the vast majority

44 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer Figure S7 from Liu et al. 2014, which lists the mutations that have been most strongly selected during polar bear evolution (we are displaying only the top half for readability). Circled in red are lines and columns Behe removed to create a chart he presented to defend his conclusions, which makes it seriously misleading. of them don’t persist. When studying speciation, the observed possibly or probably damaging. (Using the human sequence mutations have already been scrutinized by natural selection. as a reference is particularly useful because data from human We therefore expect an enrichment of those rare mutations disease-causing gene variants is how PolyPhen is trained.) that PolyPhen calls damaging but are actually constructive, as Even worse, we found that none of the nine mutations seems likely to have happened here. In fact, it’s possible that under scrutiny are actually fixed in the polar bear population. none of the most strongly selected mutations are damaging. Yes, they are common, but most polar bears do not have all Second, other kinds of empirical data are more reliable than these individual variants. While this fact does not help us un- PolyPhen predictions, given that this is not the task the tool derstand whether the mutations are damaging or not, it does was designed to perform. Everything else we know about weaken any claim that APOB was crucial in polar bear evolu- APOB points to the conclusion that the polar bear version tion. And the final nail in the coffin for this reasoning is that must be well optimized. polar bears are resistant to atherosclerosis despite very high My colleagues at Peaceful Science and I decided to look levels of circulating cholesterol. It may be that the polar bear even more closely at the polar bear mutations in APOB. In adaptation to a high-fat diet has little to do with APOB what- a series of four discussion forums with nearly 100 contribu- soever. Although we are left with an unclear picture, there is tions, eight molecular biologists pored over the data from the simply no hard evidence that APOB is damaged, let alone polar bear genome, as well as DNA sequencing data available that the damage was somehow adaptive. Rather than carefully in the NCBI database, and we scrutinized the PolyPhen-2 and objectively examining all available evidence, Behe simply predictions ourselves, the kind of due diligence that Behe pounced on a chart with some computer predictions that he would have been wise to do (Swamidass 2021). We found that didn’t fully understand. the picture is even murkier than it already appears. For one thing, if you substitute the human APOB protein sequence The Misrepresentation for the ancestor bear sequence as the reference in PolyPhen, There is a very unfortunate coda to the polar bear story. only three of the nine polar bear variants are predicted to be After Arthur Hunt and I wrote a blog post rebutting Behe’s

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 45 claims, he responded with an angry rant on Evolution News time, training, and repetition. The few scientists who work that was aimed, oddly, more at Jerry Coyne for sharing our within the ID framework would be well served to take the post than at us for writing it (Behe 2019). He offered a mere time and do the training. But let them be warned: it will be two sentences of defense, posting a chart with “the relevant very difficult to remain within the ID framework if they do. • information” that supported “every actual undistorted claim” References that he made. However, instead of presenting the actual chart from the article, he made a new chart, including only Behe, Michael J. 2019. Coyne and polar bears: Why you should never rely on incompetent reviewers. Evolution News (February 14). Available the PolyPhen predictions that support his version of polar online at https://evolutionnews.org/2019/02/coyne-and-polar-bears- bear evolution and removing those that argue against it. why-you-should-never-rely-on-incompetent-reviewers/. Blount, Zachary D., Jeffrey E. Barrick, Carla J. Davidson, et al. 2012. It’s hard to overstate just how misleading this version of Genomic analysis of a key innovation in an experimental Escherichia the chart is. In the original polar bear article, the complete coli population. Nature 489(7417): 513–518. list of PolyPhen predictions is in Table S7, which includes Chou, Seemay, Matthew D. Daugherty, S. Brook Peterson, et al. 2015. Transferred interbacterial antagonism genes augment eukaryotic innate forty-eight separate mutations and the results of two Poly- immune function. Nature 518(7537): 98–101. Phen predictions based on different genetic datasets (Liu et Coghlan, Andy. 2014. Polar bears evolved to eat junk food. New Scientist al. 2014). In one of them, 25 percent of the mutations are 2969. Available online at https://www.newscientist.com/article/ dn25535-zoologger-polar-bears-evolved-to-eat-junk-food/. predicted to be possibly or probably damaging. Behe chose to Darwin, Charles. 1859. On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection. leave those data out, preferring instead to show results from London: Murray. the other column, which predicted that 52 percent of the mu- Doolittle, Russell F., Yong Jiang, and Justin Nand. 2008. Genomic evidence for a simpler clotting scheme in jawless vertebrates. Journal of Molecular tations might be damaging. Because this still doesn’t look like Evolution 66(2): 185–196. an “overwhelming tendency” of natural selection to damage Forrest, Barbara, and Paul R. Gross. 2007. Creationism’s Trojan Horse: The genes, Behe took things further and removed all the muta- Wedge of Intelligent Design. Oxford University Press. Good, Benjamin H., Michael J. McDonald, Jeffrey E. Barrick, et al. tions that were not predicted to be damaging—nearly half the 2017. The dynamics of molecular evolution over 60,000 genera- data—to create a chart that gives the desired impression. (See tions. Nature 551(7678): 45–50. accompanying figure.) Grant, Peter R. 1981. Speciation and the adaptive radiation of Darwin’s finches: The complex diversity of Darwin’s finches may provide a key to When I called out this sleight of hand on Twitter, Evolu- the mystery of how intraspecific variation is transformed into interspe- tion News responded in characteristic “google swarm” fash- cific variation. American Scientist 69(6): 653–663. ion, publishing a whole series of articles attempting to rescue Grant, Barbara Rosemary, and Peter Raymond Grant. 1993. Evolution of Darwin’s finches caused by a rare climatic event. Proceedings of the Royal Behe’s claims about polar bear evolution while insulting me Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences 251(1331): 111–117. and my colleagues. They even dedicated one whole article Jones III, John E. 2005. Tammy Kitzmiller, et al. v Dover Area School District, to the “fake scandal” about the doctored chart, offering two et al. Case No. 04cv2688-JEJ. December 20. Keeling, Patrick J., and Jeffrey D. Palmer. 2008. Horizontal gene transfer in defenses. First, they claim he was merely “saving space,” an eukaryotic evolution. Nature Reviews Genetics 9(8): 605–618. odd concern for a web-only publication. Second, they claim Lamb, Trevor D., Edward N. Pugh, and Shaun P. Collin. 2008. The origin that he was only providing the “relevant information,” that is, of the vertebrate eye. Evolution: Education and Outreach 1(4): 415–426. Lenski, Richard E. 2019. Does Behe’s ‘first rule’ really show that evolutionary the data that shows that many of the mutations are damaging. biology has a big problem? Telliamed Revisted (February 15). Available This, too, strains credulity. When one’s entire argument is that online at https://telliamedrevisited.wordpress.com/2019/02/15/does- the overwhelming trend of unguided evolution is toward the behes-first-rule-really-show-that-evolutionary-biology-has-a-big- problem/. breaking or blunting of genes, one cannot deliberately obscure Lents, Nathan H., S. Joshua Swamidass, and Richard E. Lenski. 2019. The all contrary evidence and not expect others to cry foul. In this end of evolution? Science 363(6427): 590. case, an honest and transparent presentation of the data in- Liu, Shiping, Eline D. Lorenzen, Matteo Fumagalli, et al. 2014. Population genomics reveal recent speciation and rapid evolutionary adaptation in deed paints a very different picture from the one Behe wanted polar bears. Cell 157(4): 785–794. his readers to see. In the quest to be taken seriously, Evolution Miller, Kenneth R. 2004. The flagellum unspun—the collapse of ‘irreduc- ible complexity.’ In Philosophy of Biology: An Anthology, 439–449. News is its own worst enemy. Näsvall, Joakim, Lei Sun, John R. Roth, et al. 2012. Real-time evo- lution of new genes by innovation, amplification, and diver- Conclusion gence. Science 338(6105): 384–387. Swamidass, S. Joshua. 2021. Behe meets the Peaceful Science Forum. Panda’s Darwin Devolves is a case study in how proponents of intel- Thumb. Available online at https://pandasthumb.org/archives/2021/03/ ligent design grasp at any evidence that they can interpret behe-meets-peaceful.html.xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx in a favorable way, while simultaneously ignoring massive amounts of opposing evidence. Although this strategy Nathan H. Lents is professor of biology at John is standard fare for creationism, the age of genomics has Jay College, City University of New York, where brought nearly limitless information to our fingertips, mak- his laboratory studies the evolution of the ing it easier than ever for those poorly trained in genomics human genome with a special focus on the ge- to mine the data for nuggets of evidence for their claims. netics of human uniqueness. He is also the au- Of course, the wealth of data also provides the full context thor of Not So Different: Finding Human Nature for debunking weak claims, as we have done with Behe’s in Animals and Human Errors: A Panorama of assertions about polar bears. The careful work of analyzing Our Glitches from Pointless Bones to Broken and interpreting huge genomic data sets takes a great deal of Genes.

46 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer Is There a Philosophical Magisterium? Some scholars are promoting the idea that philosophy studies questions that science cannot. An analysis of the scientific method finds otherwise.

CHARLES H. JONES

was at an ethics lecture when the professor stated that science rather than theoretical science aimed at advancing philosophy studies what science does not. This was when human knowledge. Perhaps another confusion is that practi- I became aware of the philosophical version of Stephen cal science is not formal science (and we sometimes say that IJay Gould’s concept of nonoverlapping magisteria (Gould science was not done prior to science’s formalization in the 1997). This was a little surprising because the lecture was on 1600s). But a magisterial discussion is about foundations, not the ethics of technology, but it was not as surprising as being formalizations. Smashing particles into each other is an ad- introduced to Massimo Pigliucci’s promotion of the philo- vanced version of a baby pressing against something to test sophical magisterium at CSICon 2018 during his presenta- resistance. Instead of denying plumbing is science, perhaps tion on “The Variety of Scientisms and the Limits of Science.” Pigliucci could use it to illustrate that the scientific method Is it true that there are questions the scientific method cannot is not mysterious. address? A magisterial discussion is also about “in theory” rather The scientific method studies objective physical reality. It than “in practice.” The difference is illustrated by Bertrand uses reason and evidence (logic and measurement) to do so. Russell’s teapot (Russell 1952). In theory, we could scour We can only experience the physical world. Anything physical space for its existence, but it is neither practical nor of value can be measured. Logic can be applied to any measurement. to do so. A variant of “in practice” is “state-of-the-art.” Sci- This is a logical refutation of a philosophical magisterium. ence will never analyze every question, but that doesn’t mean But people keep presenting questions they claim cannot be the scientific method is incapable of analyzing any specific analyzed via the scientific method, so it behooves us to engage question. in deeper discussion. Pigliucci inferred, as others have, that science isn’t really To review and illustrate the scientific method, consider done using the scientific method because scientists do not plumbing. Hypothesis: changing a washer fixes a leak. Ex- perform the scientific method on a daily basis. This ignores perimental design and execution: change the washer. Data the exploratory and preparatory parts of science. Exploring collection method: put hand under faucet. Analysis method: possible hypotheses and formalizing them is possibly the most check if hand is wet. Peer review is conducted by the cus- time consuming part of science. Developing instrumentation tomer. Because plumbing can be mapped onto the scientific can take a lot of effort. Formal hypothesis testing is only part method, it is difficult to understand why Pigliucci thinks it of the scientific method. is not science. Perhaps the confusion is that it is practical Science assumes an objective reality—that something ex-

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 47 ists other than, and independent of, you. The other option is importance of this is God. Because God is so ill-defined, it to assume solipsism, which ends the conversation because it appears impossible to disprove its existence. However, there takes two to have a conversation. We all see the same moon. are plenty of characteristics that have been used to define A quantum system still exists when it’s in an unmeasured God. These have been used to disprove the existence of many quantum state. If we are a simulation, there is still a simulator types of gods (Martin and Monnier 2003). For example, if (Moskowitz 2016). being merciful excludes condoning torture, God cannot be Because we only observe reality through our senses (pos- merciful and at the same time condone it. Any noun or verb sibly technologically enhanced), every individual develops a must have physical characteristics to be meaningful. (Though subjective model—a representation—of reality.1 Groups de- imaginary, unicorns invoke a physical image.) Similarly, velop models of reality, such as the body of knowledge pro- meaningful abstract concepts are abstracted from instances duced by the scientific method, through consensus. Neither of physical reality. Otherwise, terms and phrases are no more of these models is reality itself, nor do they represent reality than vibrations in the air or ink on paper. In practice, there are perfectly. meaningful terms that don’t lead to testability because they The distinction between objective reality and models of are only partially defined with physical characteristics. Part of reality is a key concept that is illustrated beautifully by René exploratory science is to refine such terms to testability. Magritte’s La Trahison des image (The Treachery of Images). It Ideally, experiments are repeatable. When I kick the uni- is not a pipe. It is an image of a pipe. Subjective models are verse in the same way, it kicks back in the same way—and the reason for . The scientific method’s ob- experiments should not contradict each other. This is based jective is to refine the models to be as close to objective realty on the assumption (for which there is much evidence) that as possible. Einstein’s model is more refined than Newton’s. objective reality is consistent. (Even believers in magic tend Nothing nonphysical affects the physical world. Anything to assume casting the same spell produces the same result.) that affects the physical world must do so in a measurable However, the scientific method acknowledges human imper- way, even if it is just to nudge an electron. In a sense, we do fection. When experiments contradict each other, science re- not measure magnetism; we measure its effect on electrons. quires reevaluation and the development of new experiments. This is what is meant by a physical force. Assume God talks It is self-correcting. to me and I tell people about it. Because speaking is a physical act, somewhere along the way to my larynx, God must have When experiments contradict each made a physical change in my body. In that case, by definition, other, science requires reevaluation God would be a physical force. If there is something outside our physical reality, there is zero possibility of knowing any- and the development of new thing about it. Thus, it is true that questions about nonphys- experiments—it is self-correcting. ical things cannot be analyzed by the scientific method—or any other . To discuss such questions is purely entertainment. (Although such questions can be analyzed by In providing a list of questions that he thinks cannot be science to understand the people asking those questions.) analyzed by science, Pigliucci (2018) engages in a state-of- the-art fallacy (a form of argument from ignorance). Just be- It is true that questions about cause science has not analyzed a question does not mean it nonphysical things cannot be cannot. This is a common tactic of proponents of the religious magisterium and apparently of the philosophical version as analyzed by the scientific method—or well. This tactic is also a game of Whac-a-Mole. Well, here any other methodology. are a few whacks. Contrary to popular belief, social sciences are, in essence, physical sciences, because they measure functions of physical Science is dependent on measurability. When I say “me- brains. They predictably measure individual and group pref- trology” (the science of measurement), most people think erences in ways similar to recommendation algorithms. The “meteorology.” Few people know the formal definition of “a Reproducibility Project (Open Science Collaboration 2015) measure.” The point is that few people are experts in measure- evidences social sciences’ use of peer review, self-correction, ment. Beauty is traditionally thought to be unmeasurable. Yet and reproducibility. People bemoan that these sciences do not Netflix’s and Amazon’s recommendation algorithms predic- make “precise” measurements; their results are just statistical tively measure a form of beauty in the eye of each beholder. distributions. Well, different people answer questions of the (When you rate a movie 4 out of 5 stars, you’re saying it is type “From 1 to 10” differently, demonstrating that distribu- 4/5ths beautiful.) Consciousness is also usually considered tions are the proper presentation of the results. Besides, the unmeasurable. Yet Zap and Zip (Koch 2017) is a first stab at physical sciences are also based on statistical distributions. A measuring it. Any aspect of physical reality is measurable. As fundamental principle of metrology is that every measure- such, any statement about physical reality is testable. ment includes an error. We cannot state that “a ruler is a foot Science depends on precise definitions. An example of the long.” The best we can state is that “a ruler is a foot long

48 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer plus or minus an error.” The uncertainty principle formalizes rality. The approach then asks if there is further evidence. A this for simultaneous measurement of position and velocity. set of data to look at is the billions of years of experiments A celebrity example is the existence of the Higgs boson. No- conducted by evolution—what are the successes and failures? body has a Higgs boson in their hands. The conclusion is a More than one person (Shermer 2004; Tomasello 2018) has statistical inference from complex measurements, every one noted that the evolutionary growth of society—from indi- of which has a margin of error (Yirka 2012). The difference vidual to family to tribe, etc.—requires cooperation. Humans between the two types of science is that the “soft” sciences are cannot survive as individuals. Even though he presents it as much harder than the “hard” sciences. We’ve discovered the subservient to the selfish gene, Richard Dawkins (1976) pro- Higgs boson but haven’t solved world hunger. vides much evidence that “Selection has favored genes that Pigliucci (2018) asks, “Is modus ponens valid?” The answer cooperate with others.” Studies of the iterated prisoner’s di- is: it’s your choice. Although not usually called such, modus lemma also support cooperation as good. (In contrast, using ponens is an axiom; it is assumed to be valid. It doesn’t have the single iteration version to evaluate human morality is to be, but logics without it tend not to be very useful. For inappropriate. We are social creatures with memory—there example, I would be surprised if there is a proof of “1 +1 = 2” is always potential for a next iteration. Further, it is a self-ful- that doesn’t use it, let alone something such as the theory of filling prophesy, because the conclusion depends on whether evolution. But useful axioms can also be treacherous. Consider the objective is personal or group wealth.) the axiom of choice (AC), which, informally, states that given any collection of bins, each containing at least one object, it is Morality is a human concept about possible to make a selection of exactly one object from each volitional acts and social interactions. bin. At first glance this seems innocuous, yet it leads to the Banach-Tarski paradox (Banach and Tarski 1924). Informally, this paradox states that, given an object of a certain volume, Consider generalizing this. Assume you have a moral it can be deconstructed into parts that can be reconstructed maxim. Where did this come from? Didn’t it come from into two objects, each of which has the same volume as the observations of physical reality? Wasn’t it from experiments original object—a physical (vs. logical) absurdity. Ultimately, or people’s thoughts or actions? Even hallucinogenic visions mathematics, including modus ponens, is a tool. In what sense manifest in physical brains. In other words, wasn’t exploratory is a hammer “valid”? science used? Now, call that maxim a hypothesis, and experi- Pigliucci (2018) also asks, “What is the ontological status ments can be devised to test it. of numbers?” Or, more prosaically, “Do numbers exist?” It is The science of morality is in its infancy. As with all fields silly to imagine holding a one in your hand the way you do of study, it will never analyze all questions. But when multiple an apple. Being a concept, a one is a model. Being a thing, an lines of inquiry—both evidence- and logic-based—converge apple is part of physical reality. To conflate models with real- on a common conclusion, it starts looking like a scientific ity is a category error. We can, however, point to “one apple” theory. and “one other apple” and thus point to “two apples.” This I assume philosophers are interested in using any gleaned illustrates that numbers and arithmetic “exist” in the physical wisdom to change people’s actions (if only their own). Such world through instantiation. We can also point to physical actions, being physical, are in the scientific method magiste- representations of numbers, including ink on paper and elec- rium. Suggesting that philosophical hypotheses are not in- trochemical constructs in brains, but those aren’t actual num- formed by science ignores not only exploratory science but bers. In response to the classic question: the instantiations of also the feedback of experiments to refine hypotheses. Using mathematics are discovered; its representations (the models) the phrase “clean water” is not good enough. If acceptable— are invented. measurable—levels of toxicants cannot be defined, then all In providing a state-of-the-art argument about abortion, water is “clean,” and the phrase is meaningless. Pigliucci (2018) joins many others in claiming science cannot Philosophy may not be dead as some people claim. But the be applied to morality. Morality is a human concept about philosophical magisterium is a nail in its coffin. Why should volitional acts and social interactions. Rocks, the universe, people be interested in something (other than for entertain- and amoebae don’t contribute to this concept. Let us follow a ment purposes) that does not affect physical reality? Philos- common scientific method approach of first looking at spe- ophy, like morality, is about human concepts. The millennia cific examples when analyzing difficult questions. There is a of philosophical records are thus evidence that can be used, great deal of evidence, such as large infrastructures and legal in the same way social surveys can be used, as a basis of ex- toxicant levels, that providing clean drinking water is con- ploratory science. Philosophy has played—and can potentially sidered good. The approach then asks if there are underlying continue to play—this role. But philosophical consensus is principles. Among others, conveying the idea of clean water not enough. Philosophers need to acknowledge that any epis- requires communication, which is inherently a cooperative temic statement must be supported by more than opinion. action. Further, providing clean water requires cooperation For example, the opinion (widely accepted for millennia) that to develop filtration and delivery systems. This leads to a hy- women need to be controlled by men to curb their inherent pothesis that cooperation is a fundamental principle of mo- sinfulness does not hold up against evidence.

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 49 This brings us to epistemologies. Assuming there are ques- ther, philosophical activities can be mapped onto part of the tions that science cannot analyze, what method does philos- scientific process. ophy offer to analyze these questions? Pigliucci (2009) offers The methods used to support the philosophical magiste- “logic or more broadly reason-based arguments.” So, which rium are the same types of methods used to promote alterna- logic should we use: to AC or not to AC? There are much tive medicine and pseudoscience: Whac-a-Mole arguments, subtler disconnects between reason-based arguments and re- claiming immeasurability, inaccurately characterizing science, ality than the result of the Banach-Tarski theorem. How do ignoring the treachery of subjective models, and saying that you identify them—especially in the presence of confirma- using evidence is a choice (to name a few). These legitimize tion bias? The product of any epistemological investigation statements such as: “Science just can’t explain [insert pet idea is a sequence of words presented as a statement about reality. here].” The philosophical magisterium needs to be refuted not But words are treacherous. This is why epistemologies must just because it is false but also because it supports the process include testing statements against reality. Logics and their by which people die from . • conclusions are tools. You don’t choose a hammer because it is derived logically. You choose it because it reliably drives real Note nails into real wood. 1. The modelist theory requires only three assumptions: cogito, ergo sum; something exists besides self (objective reality); and that sensory percep- It is absurd to suggest that science doesn’t use logic or rea- tions interpret, rather than capture, reality. son-based arguments (e.g., the first step in hypothesis testing is checking logical consistency), so the issue is strictly about References using evidence. The problem with claiming that the use of Banach, Stefan, and Alfred Tarski. 1924. Sur la décomposition des ensem- evidence is not necessary is that it opens the door to ignoring bles de points en parties respectivement congruentes. Fundamenta Mathematicae 6: 244–277. Available online at http://matwbn.icm.edu. evidence. Any statement about reality is testable because all pl/ksiazki/fm/fm6/fm6127.pdf. aspects of reality are measurable. The only acceptable time for Dawkins, Richard. 1976. The Selfish Gene. Oxford, United Kingdom: not using evidence is when it is unavailable due to practical Oxford University Press. Gould, Stephen. 1997. Nonoverlapping magisteria. Natural History. limitations. Saying otherwise is saying that using evidence is Available online at https://web.archive.org/web/20190403152432/ a choice. Who gets to choose? People who claim that vaccines http://www.stephenjaygould.org/library/gould_noma.html. cause ? Koch, Christof. 2017. How to make a consciousness meter. . November: 28–33. Available online at https://www.allen- Pigliucci suggests we use logic and also asks if logic is valid. institute.org/media/filer_public/3e/7a/3e7aabb0-5da7-4915-b4b6- Besides being a little contradictory, the latter of these raises 2aa896c8faee/2017_11_howtomakeaconsciousnessmeter.pdf. the specter of a common meme: science doesn’t Martin, Michael, and Ricki Monnier (eds). 2003. The Impossibility of God. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books. “prove” anything. Well, no other epistemological method Moskowitz, Clara. 2016. Are we living in a computer simulation? Scientific does either. The difference from some epistemologies is that American Physics. Available online at https://www.scientificamerican. com/article/are-we-living-in-a-computer-simulation/. science acknowledges this. What the scientific method does Open Science Collaboration. 2015. Estimating the reproducibility of is provide evidence that is consistent across time, space, and psychological science. Science 349(6251), aac4716. Doi: 10.1126/ culture. This has led to an overwhelming demonstration of science.aac4716. Available online at http://science.sciencemag.org/ content/349/6251/aac4716.full?ijkey=1xgFoCnpLswpk&key- its usefulness—from plumbing to understanding evolution. type=ref&siteid=sci. Using science based on its usefulness is sometimes dismissed Pigliucci, Massimo. 2009. On the scope of skeptical inquiry. Available online as just . But why use an epistemology that isn’t at http://rationallyspeaking.blogspot.com/2009/10/on-scope-of-skep- tical-inquiry.html. useful? ———. 2018. The problem with scientism. Blog of the APA. Available Some philosophers are embracing science. Why aren’t online at https://blog.apaonline.org/2018/01/25/the-problem-with- all philosophers? Science is at the point where it can pro- scientism/. Russell, Bertrand. 1952. Is there a god? Unpublished. Excerpt available vide—and is providing—objective advances on philosoph- online at http://russellsteapot.net/. ical questions. There are always practical and state-of-the- Shermer, Michael. 2004. The Science of Good and Evil. New York, NY: art limitations; any decision is based on limited knowledge Henry Holt and Company. Tomasello, Michael. 2018. How we learned to put our fate in one another’s and evidence. But why isn’t there a form of rejoicing about hands: The origins of morality. Scientific American. September: 70–75. progress being made on classic philosophical problems? Are Yirka, Bob. 2012. CERN teams post Higgs boson papers—one ups its philosophers more interested in hearing themselves talk than sigma level of certainty. Phys.org. Available online at https://phys.org/ news/2012-08-cern-teams-higgs-boson-papers.html. making measureable changes in the world? People will con- tinue to apply science to philosophy regardless of proponents Charles H. Jones, PhD, is a retired mathemati- of a philosophical magisterium. Rather than claim that people cian. While working for the aerospace industry, cannot do what they are already doing, philosophers could he coordinated research and development of help develop hypotheses and evaluate experimental methods aircraft data acquisition systems and related and results. standards. He is an active member of the The claim that some portion of philosophy is outside of Freedom From Religion Foundation, organizes science is not supported by analysis. Nothing nonphysical the Eugene Oregon Atheist Pub Social on can be studied via the human body. Everything physical is Meetup, and blogs at https://startingfrom- measurable. Science can analyze anything measurable. Fur- doubt.blog/.

50 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer Continuity, Not Magisterium—A Response to Jones Science and philosophy exist on a continuum with areas of overlap and reciprocal aid. Each informs the other—or should.

MASSIMO PIGLIUCCI

harles H. Jones does not like the idea that philosophy combination of logical reasoning and evidence. But so do all and science are separate magisteria, analogous to the sorts of other activities, from plumbing (mentioned by Jones) sharp separation between religion and science once to my daily navigating of the New York City subway (before Cproposed by evolutionary biologist Stephen Jay Gould. Well, I COVID-19). If we take “reasoning,” “evidence,” “hypothesis,” agree with Jones: science and philosophy aren’t separate mag- and “testing” in the most broad and informal understanding isteria, and I actually wrote critically of Gould’s idea in the possible, then pretty much all we do is “science.” pages of Skeptical Inquirer (Pigliucci 1999). Not only that, but a lot of other animals apparently also do Like many philosophers, I endorse instead a continuity science, because their behavior can be reasonably described as model of the relationship between science and philosophy. In testing hypotheses about reality on the basis of observations this model, there are both areas of overlap and reciprocal aid and (informal) experiments. But that won’t do. If we define a as well as areas about which one field is largely or completely concept—be it science, philosophy, reasoning, or whatever— silent about the other. in such broad terms that it encompasses by definition all pos- I find it interesting that Jones accuses me of both not un- sible instances, then that concept is meaningless. derstanding the scientific method and of indirectly aiding and As Helen Longino (2019) has cogently argued, science is a abetting pseudoscience. I had been a practicing scientist for particular, historically and sociologically situated practice. It is decades before shifting my academic interests and have writ- a practice that is sufficiently distinct not only from philosophy ten critically for many years about pseudoscience, including in and plumbing but even from logic and mathematics. It’s to the pages of this magazine. I think I can be afforded the cour- be recognizable and analyzable on its own terms. Try this out tesy of not impugning either my intelligence or my intentions. as an experiment: pick any paper in a technical philosophy That being said, Jones makes several points, some of which journal, another from a journal in the natural sciences—say I find myself in complete agreement with and others of which biology or physics—and a third from mathematics or logic. I I think he goes awry or simply misunderstands my take. For challenge you to find much similarity in the way these papers instance, we agree that both science and philosophy use a are written, in their internal structure, in the subject matters

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 51 they treat, and in the way they are evaluated by the respective method? sets of peers. That ought to convince you that there are mean- Jones tells us that the scientific method depends on precise ingful differences among these fields. definitions. Good luck with that, then. Setting aside that he Jones makes much use of the alleged universality of the sci- hasn’t provided us with a precise definition of science, philos- entific method, which several philosophers over decades have ophy, or anything else he is discussing, Wittgenstein (1953) suggested does not actually exist. Science isn’t an algorithm pointed out long ago that most interesting and sufficiently that can be implemented in a computer, and it doesn’t follow complex concepts do not admit of precise definitions. Not rigid rules. Paul Feyerabend (1975) argued that scientists are because we don’t understand such concepts well enough but eminently pragmatic, that they’ll simply use whatever works. because they are characterized by inherently fuzzy boundar- He may have pushed his point too far when he talked about ies. As a fun game, the next time you are together with some methodological anarchism, but the fact remains that science friends ask them to arrive at a precise definition of the con- is rather characterized by something akin to what Thomas cept of a “game.” It’s impossible. For any finite set of necessary Kuhn (1962) called “disciplinary matrices.” These are complex and sufficient conditions, you will find both games that are at networks of observational and experimental practices, logical least partial exceptions to the set or activities that are clearly and mathematical tools, instrumental apparatuses, general not games and yet fit the conditions. The best we can do to theories and specific hypotheses, textbooks to train the new teach people what counts as a game (or not) is to point and generation of students, systems of peer review, conferences, say “that is a game,” “that is not a game,” and, occasionally, publications, granting agencies, and academic structures. All “I’m not quite sure.” much more complex and fuzzy than the skeletal elements put Jones claims that “meaningful” abstract concepts are ab- forth by Jones. stracted from instances of physical reality. This is what the eighteenth-century philosopher David Hume proposed, which has been successfully challenged ever since. It is telling Jones makes much use of the alleged that Jones does not provide us with a single example of what universality of the scientific method, he is talking about. Some meaningful concepts certainly are derived from observations of reality. “Unicorns” are an obvi- which several philosophers over ous extrapolation from horses and narwals. “Gold mountains” decades have suggested does not don’t exist, but they can be conjured by associating the other- wise empirical concepts of “gold” and “mountain.” But when actually exist. we come to more and more abstract concepts—including much of what mathematicians and logicians deal with—the connection with the empirical becomes increasingly evanes- Jones also makes bold metaphysical pronouncements that cent. That is why math and logic are not sciences, despite the make me wonder how he thinks they can be defended on obvious fact that they are eminently useful to the sciences. scientific grounds. For instance, I would agree with him that We are told by Jones that the social sciences are funda- we live in a physical universe governed by cause and effect. mentally physical sciences, because, you know, they deal with That position, in philosophy, is called physicalism (Stoljar physical things such as human beings. But they also deal with 2015). It’s a reasonable assumption, but it cannot be proven abstract concepts, such as “society,” “democracy,” “law,” “jus- or disproven by observation or experiment. And, contra tice,” and so forth. In fact, the social sciences are a perfect Jones, solipsism is not the only possible alternative on the example of a field that is partly scientific and partly human- table. Moreover, of which physicalism is Jones talking about? istic. Measurable, quantitative facts about, say, the economy Supervenience-based? Realization physicalism? Token phys- and demographics of societies are inextricably connected with icalism? Reductive physicalism? Emergent physicalism? How qualitative and subjective representations of those same soci- would he discriminate empirically among these options? eties by the individuals who live in them (through their per- I most certainly agree with Jones that science is in the sonal diaries, newspaper articles, biographies, and even works business of producing models of reality and that Einstein’s of fiction). Is there a sharp separation to be made here? No. model is better than Newton’s. But I wonder which theory Are there interesting and meaningful distinctions at play? Of of truth is Jones deploying here: the correspondence theory, course. the coherence theory, a pragmatic theory, or something else Similarly, I agree with Jones that the so-called “soft” sci- (Glanzberg 2018)? And, again, what experiments would he ences are distinct from the “hard” ones primarily by the fact suggest to discriminate among these possibilities? that the job of psychologists, sociologists, and economists When Jones informs us that beauty can be measured, for is much more difficult than that of physicists and chemists. instance by conducting a poll among Netflix viewers asking This is because they deal with the most complex objects in them which movies they prefer to watch, what conception of the known universe: human brains and human societies, not beauty is he referring to? Classical, idealist, hedonist, or what merely quarks and electrons. But this does not help Jones’s (Sartwell 2016)? And, at the cost of repeating myself, how thesis at all, because it rather points toward yet another idea would he discriminate among these by using the scientific that has been developed in philosophy of science over the

52 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer past several decades: far from being a recognizable whole that suggest vital—nexus connecting the natural sciences, the so- includes everything, science itself is highly heterogeneous cial sciences, the humanities, and logic. So of course philoso- (Dupré 1995), with different disciplines (natural sciences, so- phizing ought to be informed by the best science available, cial sciences, experimental sciences, historical sciences) being and those colleagues in philosophy who reject such a notion marked by interesting distinctions that we need to keep in are relegating themselves to oblivion out of a misguided sense mind if we wish to understand how science actually works. of pride in their discipline. In response to one of my original examples, Jones says that But scientists sometimes make the opposite mistake, that the answer to the question of the validity of modus ponens in of colonizing other fields in the name of an elusive scientific classical logic is “it depends.” Indeed it does. But on what? On method that allegedly can deal with everything of interest to the system of logic one is adopting, which depends in turn on human beings. Don’t take my word for it; take the word of one the sort of questions one is interested in. But only a fraction of the most eminent scientists of all time instead: of such questions have to do with the empirical world; most of I fully agree with you about the significance and educational them are generated within the very field of logic itself. More value of methodology as well as history and philosophy of important, the answers to questions in formal logic do not science. So many people today—and even professional sci- depend at all on observation or experiment. This means that entists—seem to me like somebody who has seen thousands there is an infinite number of truths that are entirely outside of trees but has never seen a forest. A knowledge of the historic and philosophical background gives that kind of of science, as long as we understand the latter as having at independence from prejudices of his generation from which least something to do with how the world is (as distinct from most scientists are suffering. This independence created by hypothetical or abstract inquiries). philosophical insight is—in my opinion—the mark of dis- To my question about the ontological status of numbers, tinction between a mere artisan or specialist and a real seeker Jones replies: after truth. (Einstein to Thornton, December 7, 1944) •

It is silly to imagine holding a one in your hand the way you References do an apple. Being a concept, a one is a model. Being a thing, an apple is part of physical reality. To conflate models with De Waal, F. 2009. Primates and Philosophers: How Morality Evolved. reality is a category error. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Dupré, J. 1995. The Disorder of Things: Metaphysical Foundations of the Indeed, but where did I commit such an error? When did Disunity of Science. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. I ever say that a possible answer to the issue of the ontology Feyerabend, P. 1975. Against Method: Outline of an Anarchistic Theory of Knowledge. London, UK: New Left Books. of mathematical constructs is “here, hold the number one in Glanzberg, M. 2018.Truth. Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Available your hand”? Nevertheless, the ontological question is vexing, online at https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/truth/. and it has divided not just the community of philosophers Horsten, L. 2017. Philosophy of mathematics. Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Available online at https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/phi- of mathematics but that of mathematicians, with various an- losophy-mathematics/. swers having been advanced: realism, structuralism, nominal- Kuhn, T. 1962. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago, IL: University ism, and so forth (Horsten 2017). of Chicago Press. Longino, H. 2019. The social dimensions of scientific knowledge. Stanford Regarding morality, Jones reminds us that cooperation is Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Available online at https://plato.stanford. likely an evolved, adapted human trait. Yes, and it certainly edu/entries/scientific-knowledge-social/. provides us with one of the basic building blocks of what we Pigliucci, M. 1999. Gould’s separate magisteria: Two views. Skeptical Inquirer 23(6): 53. call ethics (De Waal 2009). But many ethical issues we deal Sartwell, C. 2016. Beauty. Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Available with today do not admit of straightforward answers based online at https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/beauty/. on a naive version of evolutionary psychology, as the one ad- Stoljar, D. 2015. Physicalism. Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Available online at https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/physicalism/. vanced by or Sam Harris. In this instance, Wittgenstein, L. 1953. Philosophical Investigations, Hoboken, NJ: Wiley- my original question regarded the morality of abortion. I have Blackwell. proposed that of course there are empirical issues informing our views on abortion. For instance, if we arrived at the (philo- sophical, by way of argumentation) conclusion that abortion is Massimo Pigliucci is the K.D. Irani Professor permissible, say, up until the point at which the fetus begins to of Philosophy at the City College of New York. feel pain, then it is a scientific question (specifically, one per- His academic work is in evolutionary biology, philosophy of science, the nature of pseu- tinent to developmental neurobiology) of when that moment doscience, and the practical philosophy of comes, approximately. But the argument that led us to the Stoicism. His books include How to Be a Stoic: conclusion that abortion is (or is not) permissible according to Using Ancient Philosophy to Live a Modern Life criterion X or Y is not one grounded in the sort of empirical (Basic Books) and Nonsense on Stilts: How to facts that biology, let alone physics, trades in. Tell Science from Bunk (University of Chicago Contra Jones, I have never suggested that philosophical Press). His most recent book is A Field Guide arguments should not be informed by science. As I said at to a Happy Life: 53 Brief Lessons for Living (Basic Books). He is CSI fel- the onset, I see science and philosophy as sufficiently distinct low, and his “Thinking about Science” column appeared in the Skeptical but continuous enterprises, just like science and math or logic. Inquirer from mid-2002 to early 2015. More by Pigliucci can be found at Indeed, philosophy represents an interesting—and I would massimopigliucci.com.

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 53 Psychic Detectives and the Tragedy of Harley Dilly An Ohio boy’s disappearance from a small town around Christmas 2019 was a genuine mystery. It eventually garnered the attention of national news media—and psychics.

BENJAMIN RADFORD

nvestigations into the trator has been identified. Missing persons cases are often accuracy of psychic literally a matter of life and death, and if there’s any subject detectives in locating topic in which psychics could be practically useful and benefit Imissing persons are typi- victims, it’s this. cally conducted by skeptics after the fact. One benefit Harley Dilly’s Mysterious Disappearance to examining psychic de- In early January 2020, I began to follow news reports of a tective information is that fourteen-year-old boy named Harley Dilly of Port Clinton, it’s often falsifiable (when Ohio, who was last seen a few days before Christmas 2019, and if the missing person is on the morning of Friday, December 20. Harley left for recovered). A Tarot reader school shortly after 6 a.m. but never arrived and didn’t come or medium, by contrast, Harley Dilly home that night. His parents, Marcus and Heather, assumed may give a client generic he was out with his friends, as had been the case before. messages about how dead But when Harley hadn’t returned by the next night, Marcus loved ones are looking out called the Port Clinton Police Department. An extensive for them but rarely give specific information that can be vali- investigation began on Monday. The public was asked to dated. Predictions are rarely revisited and critically examined look for him: a white male wearing glasses with brown hair, (by either clients or psychics), and in the rare cases they are, weighing 100 pounds and about 4 foot 9 inches. His disap- it’s typically to cherry-pick and retrofit a few “hits” out of a pearance was especially concerning because he had attention sea of misses to inflate an accuracy rate. deficit hyperactivity disorder and autism, though he was I’ve researched many psychic detective cases over the years high functioning. (e.g., Radford 2010), and in 2011, as a sort of investigational When asked about the delay in reporting his son missing, experiment, I followed a high-profile missing persons case as Marcus said Harley had previously gone from school to a it happened. Holly Bobo, a young nursing student, had last friend’s house overnight. Occasional family conflicts had led been seen being led into the woods near her Tennessee home to Harley leaving the house and staying with friends, some- by a camouflaged individual. As the case unfolded, I gathered times for a day or longer. He normally carried a cell phone information not only on the investigation itself but also on but had recently broken it and was angry that his parents visions provided by psychic sleuths about Bobo’s whereabouts refused to replace it. Police questioned Harley’s friends, one and circumstances. Several high-profile psychics, including of whom described what Harley was wearing the last time he and Carla Baron, offered information about saw him: a maroon coat over gray sweatpants. Detective Ron Bobo, though—predictably—the psychic information did not Timmons said that they had obtained a surveillance camera lead to Bobo’s recovery (Radford 2011). image showing Harley crossing the street in front of his house Following a missing persons case contemporaneously has at 6:08 that morning. several benefits for an investigator, including the ability to Because of the circumstances and Harley’s disability, police document information both as revealed in press accounts and soon called it a missing persons case. Parents, friends, and by psychic predictions; it also prevents the deleting or altering police shared alerts on social media and put up posters around of incorrect information by psychics after the fact—that is, the small town. After another week without success, the FBI after details of the investigation have been borne out through was called in to help, and the story attracted national publicity, police work or journalism. It is not hard to simply delete or including on the A&E network and Good Morning America. retroactively tweak wrong information once the victim has The fact that Harley hadn’t been found yet led many peo- been recovered, the circumstances are known, and a perpe- ple to assume he’d been kidnapped. After all, if he’d simply

54 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer Jane Voneman Duperow The author of several books and a YouTube series, Duperow describes herself on her website: I am one of the top psychic and Mediums in the U.S. because of my rare gift that no other psychic or medium has. … My clients are 100 percent satisfied. … I do Psychic readings and I listen to my spirit guides and higher power to help and guide you. I am clairvoyant, so I see visions, also I am clairaudiant, so I hear words or full sentences from your spirits on the other side. I channel your loved one’s who have passed. My fees are $100 per private consult and I also offer phone readings. I accept cash or credit cards. I can also help find missing people or objects. (Duperow 2020) On her Facebook page biography, Duperow notes that she “studied Astrology/ at Stratford Career Institute,” graduating in 2005. Stratford is an unaccredited correspondence course school often described as a diploma mill. Stratford no longer offers the course, but I was able to find the curriculum in my files (see Figure 1). Whether asked by concerned citizens to help search for Harley or prompted by a vision, Duperow posted this on her website on January 6: He was walking to school the day he went missing … I am writing this because I really want to help locate the boy with my intuitive abilities, so I am writing what I pick up in Figure 1. Stratford Career Institute coursework for Astrology/Parapsychology. From the visions thus far: 1) Harley Dilly is on a couch gasping for air author’s files. … 2) Grey Ford vehicle; 3) My spirit guides said he took a half day off the day before and left during his science class, or something having to do with science; 4) Vision of a pos- wandered away or been injured or killed in an accident, surely sible perpetrator is a man with a go tee [sic] and facial hair, his body would have been found by that point. A fourteen- good looking man, around late 30s, middle forties, mustache year-old boy on foot couldn’t have gotten far alone, and in a also; 5) Another vehicle involved, a Lincoln Continental … he was put in this car, so he either went in this car willingly small town he would have been noticed and recognized. Port or was abducted. Clinton has a population of about 6,000 people and covers an area of less than three square miles; it’s on the shore of In a second post, Duperow offered a much more extensive Lake Erie, and the nearest large city is Toledo, about forty-five reading, condensed but verbatim here: miles away. An online poll in mid-January asked people fol- I have read for thousands of people per year and most of my lowing the case to offer their opinions about what happened clients say I am very accurate and I have gifts to share to the to Harley. Out of the 185 people who responded, by far the world … I feel that something having to do with informa- tion from Harley’s science class or what he did during half most common assumption (nearly 75 percent) was that Har- day around that class could help the police … I picked up ley had been abducted by someone he knew or an online pred- another vision of a white office building kind of up on a hill. ator. About equal numbers thought he had been killed in an The office building looked like it had black windows so you accident, ran away, or committed suicide. could not see inside the building. Kind of like the windows that they sometimes put in medical buildings. The building The search continued with tracking dogs, foot patrols, and was a big one and then I saw the numbers 101. I felt like helicopters. A $20,000 reward was offered for information this was an office room number. … He went with a man. I leading to his return, but the money didn’t help. No one was know this to be true because I saw a vision of a male when holding out for cash; there just were no leads at all. It seemed I meditated on it again. The man has a go tee and lot’s of he’d simply vanished, and it was a genuine mystery. stubbles like he had not shaven. He was sort of good looking male and that is all I picked up on it as far as who Harley went with … I also saw a vision of some cement blocks of Enter the Psychics some kind. Like four of them in the ground. The kind that are usually near water. … I did see a vision of a boat, but I As the case drew national attention, the Port Clinton Police don’t think he is in water, I feel that someone who goes fish- Department got tips from across the country. While rumors ing or knows boating though. This may also just be a vision swirled and searches continued, several psychics offered of the search and rescue team … I heard that the Psychic information about the Dilly disappearance; the two most male [Brian Ladd] who does the drawings and art work is pretty good and had solved one case so I am stating that he prominent were Jane Voneman Duperow (also known as does pick up accurate information. I did not match up with Jane Voneman, Jane Voneman-DuPerow, and Psychic Jane) anything that he said, but with both of our work together and Brian Ladd. possibly something may add up, especially the red truck that

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 55 Figure 2. Art from Brian Ladd offering information about missing persons.

56 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer people in the town of Port Clinton now focus on lo’ts. He A January 13 post on his website noted, “Harley Dilly case, also said some things about Walmart. … I did pick up the I will be posting new dreams every day at until Harley comes name Ramsey. … I pray that Harley is still alive and safe and will return home. home to his family.” Unlike Duperow, Ladd uses sketches and scribbles to de- In sum, Duperow offers visions of a gray Ford; a red truck; pict his stream-of-consciousness psychic visions, prophecies, a Lincoln Continental that Harley was driven away in; an and impressions. He photographs and posts them to his web- attractive male abductor in his thirties or forties with a goatee site, offering little explicit interpretation but inviting visitors and/or mustache and/or stubble; the name Ramsey; science to his website to study them for useful information.1 Ladd or a school science class; the boy on a couch trying to breathe; sometimes writes brief captions to the images he posts and, a big white office building on a hill with darkened windows; in two cases, offered seemingly specific information about the the number 101, which might be an office number; four ce- missing boy: a December 30 post says, “Harley Dilly, under ment blocks in or on the ground, possibly near water; a boat; porch, Walmart, more numbers” along with a crude sketch of someone involved with boats or who fishes; and a Walmart. what seems to be a male face (it’s not clear if it’s supposed to She also endorsed information provided by another psychic, represent Dilly, an abductor, or someone else); see Figure 2. Brian Ladd. He also posted an image of a second person with the cap- Brian Ladd tion: “This is getting serious and I’m going to do some more work on this case tonight, will have a map location tomorrow A biography posted to Brian Ladd’s website states: and hopefully, this man’s full name.” The implication seems to Psychic Brian Ladd uses his visions, dreams to accurately be that the person Ladd drew is Harley’s abductor or at least predict future events. His online dream diary contains over 20,000 documented dreams, lucid dreams, and remote view- someone involved with the disappearance. No name seems to ing cases. To date, over 3,000 dream predictions … have have emerged, but on January 11, Ladd posted an image titled come true, with more and more every day. Brian has person- “Harley Dilly search map,” including a Google map image ally worked on hundreds of missing person cases since 2006 with two circles on it, an area near the lake: “Data from 5 with a success rate of around 45%. Brian … was diagnosed with in 2011, and some say this dream sketches last night … this is the area that needs to be “illness” maybe the reason why so many of his dreams have searched again … it’s in Port Clinton Ohio”; see Figure 3. In come true. (Ladd 2020) one post, Ladd writes, “Harley Dilly found safe, this is the

Figure 3. A map from psychic Brian Ladd indicating—wrongly—where he thought Harley Dilly would be found

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 57 place, the same place!!! Harley Dilly located, numbers, cctv.” it narrowed to nine by thirteen inches, and he suffocated to In sum, Ladd offers mostly ambiguous sketches and death (Chiu 2020). scrawls, but a few concrete, falsifiable claims emerge: that Harley’s parents were blamed by many on social media Harley Dilly had been abducted by a male; that the boy would for having waited a day to call police. The time of death was be found (or had been) under a porch and would be located in difficult to determine, but it’s likely that he died sometime on or near the area Ladd indicated on a local map; that Harley or Friday, the same day he disappeared. He was probably dead his abductor had some connection to Walmart; and perhaps even before anyone knew he was missing. Hindsight is 20/20, most importantly (for the family and community) that the but calling the police sooner wouldn’t have saved him. boy would be “found safe.” Revisiting the Psychics Harley Dilly Found With the circumstances of Harley’s death established, we Harley Dilly’s body was found nearly a month after his dis- can revisit the information and visions provided by Duperow appearance, on Monday, January 13. He was in the chimney and Ladd. It’s clear that none of their information saved of a vacant house across the street, only a few hundred feet Harley’s life or even helped anyone locate him after he died. away from his home. Both Duperow and Ladd suggested that he was alive at the Searchers had already looked around the house several time of their readings and visions, but in fact he was dead times, but as the home—a private residence being remod- long before they got involved. eled—showed no sign of forced entry, there was no reason to All the information they gave was false: There was no ab- enter it. All the windows and doors were locked, and police ductor, no male with a goatee driving a Lincoln Continental, dogs didn’t find Harley’s scent near the entrances. It’s not a gray Ford, or any other vehicle. Harley Dilly was not under uncommon for later searches of previously screened areas to a porch, or at a Walmart, or in the area Ladd had circled on a yield smaller, important clues. This is not due to investigative map. Nobody related to his disappearance was named Ramsey. incompetence but instead how searches work: initial searches There was no boat and no office building, with or without the were for a teenage boy presumed to be lost or injured; search- number 101. The visions and predictions were wrong in every ers did not—and could not have legally—searched inside significant detail. private homes (occupied or not) without probable cause and I interviewed Det. Ron Timmons of the Port Clinton Po- a search warrant. When exhaustive searches don’t produce lice Department, who was involved throughout the search for results, you conduct a deeper and more narrowly focused in- Harley Dilly. When asked about the role that psychic infor- vestigation to see what might have been missed. mation played in the case, he replied: When police entered the home, they found Harley’s jacket There were several psychic tips that we received. None of and glasses next to a brick chimney and soon discovered his those tips led to the location of Mr. Dilly. Several were body stuck above. Police and the coroner determined that the followed up on to the best of our abilities. Sometimes with death was an accident. Harley had been exploring the aban- the tips you can’t follow up on it, when they say, you know, doned property and decided to climb on the roof, using an “it’s close to the water” or something like that … or “it’s in antenna tower next to the house as a ladder. Once at the top, a field” and they can’t give us any more information, so we couldn’t check up on all of them. But the ones that we could, he removed his glasses and jacket and tossed them down the we checked up on to the best of our ability. None of them chimney; they slid down to the floor and eventually alerted led to any further information in the case. (Timmons 2020) searchers to his body. He then climbed down the chimney— either for adventure or mischief—where he got stuck where I asked Timmons about Brian Ladd’s Google map image describing where in the small town Harley would be found, and he confirmed that the department had seen it. “That was the wrong location. The location he showed was northwest, This investigation was done as part of my podcast Squaring on the water compared to where the Dilly family lives, maybe the Strange, with cohost Celestia Ward and guest Kenny five blocks south of the water, and it was maybe four of five Biddle each tackling other missing persons cases; for blocks to the east of the location that he was describing.” more, see “Testing Psychic Detectives in Real Time: Parts Chief Hickman monitored social media and filtered through 1 and 2” (episodes 116 and 117), and Biddle’s May 18, many people contacting the police with “claims and messages received from Facebook that psychics said this or that, and 2020, online column “Investigating Psychic Predictions in he would send them out to the larger investigatory group as a Missing Persons Case” (at https://skepticalinquirer.org/ part of our tips.” exclusive/investigating-psychic-predictions-in-a-miss- Timmons emphasized that police don’t want to discourage ing-persons-case/). anyone from submitting tips, regardless of their origin, and that they were indeed followed up on, to the degree possible. In other words, it’s not as if the police refused to consider or investigate information offered by psychics, and that’s why Harley wasn’t found sooner. Instead, the actionable infor-

58 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer It might seem like a hit until we consider all the scenarios in which a missing person could plausibly be gasping for air. These include Harley being out of breath being chased by his abductor; being strangled or drowned; having an asthma attack; being choloroformed, gagged, or placed in a confined space; or any number of other scenarios. Had Duperow said the boy was “in a chimney gasping for air” or even “in a tight space gasping for air,” it would have been far more impressive and useful. In this tragic case—as in so many others—psychics failed when they were needed most, offering ambiguous, worthless, and simply false information to police and searchers. Most people would find it unethical to contact police with random hunches, ideas, visions, and “information” about missing per- sons, but people who believe they have intuitive or psychic powers feel an altruistic obligation to do so. Until and unless Figure 4. The house where Harley Dilly was eventually located those visions are scientifically validated and proven, they do more harm than good. • mation was taken seriously—as all plausible and potentially Note useful information must be, regardless of the source—and 1. Brian Ladd’s approach of offering art instead of words has two effects. On one hand, it is more ambiguous than information given by many the information turned out to be fruitless and false. When psychics. This ambiguity offers a far wider latitude for interpretation and the psychic information is specific enough to follow up on, it thus an increased likelihood of retrofitted “accuracy,” because something turns out to be wrong. When the psychic information is too in the pages and pages of shapes, numbers, scrawls, and so on could in theory later be seen as correct. A simple box shape could, for example, later vague, it’s difficult or impossible to follow up on; the vague be interpreted to be a field, house, barn, or other structure that a missing predictions were especially frustrating and useless. For exam- person was (eventually) found in, on, or near. Much of what Ladd produces ple, as for the psychic vision that Harley would be found “near is indecipherable scribbles and doodles, which police and searchers—even those who may believe in psychics—would rightfully dismiss as being water,” Timmons noted dryly, “We’re on a peninsula, so, um incoherent and unhelpful. Hours spent trying to decipher what a line or …” symbol (or even a word) might mean are hours not spent on the ground In the end, those submitting tips about Harley’s disappear- searching for the lost boy. It also places the burden of interpretation on oth- ers, in the tradition of Nostradamus; the idea is that he’s the psychic genius ance were sincere and well-meaning: who’s seeing divine truths and important revelations contained somewhere They thought it might have been a benefit to us, which amid hundreds of scribbles and sketches—but he’s too busy or important to sort out the wheat from the chaff and make sense of it. By Ladd’s own ultimately was not true. It’s like anything else, with the tips admission, he’s 45 percent accurate in his information locating missing we received here. … We’re getting [eyewitness and psychic] persons. Taking him at his word, even if what he says is true—and it clearly tips from all across the country that we have to follow up on. is not—over half the time he’s wrong. … When you look at the tips, the guy [described as possibly Harley] was six foot tall, and our Harley was four foot nine, References things like that. They’re all well-meaning people trying to Chiu, Allyson. 2020. A teenager went missing weeks ago. Then police looked help the investigation. (Timmons 2020) inside a nearby chimney. The Washington Post ( January 15). Available online at https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/01/15/dil- After Harley was found, one skeptic replied on Jane Dup- ly-chimney-death/. erow’s blog, “Oof wanna take another guess?,” and Duperow Duperow, Jane Voneman. 2020. Psychic Jane. Available online at https:// psychicjane.co/. did her best to salvage what she could of her reading: “I did Ladd, Brian. 2020. About. Brian Ladd psychic. Available online at https:// see cement block as I said in the one paragraph” (Harley died briansprediction.com/. in a brick chimney, not one made of cement blocks). She later Radford, Benjamin. 2010. The psychic and the serial killer: The ‘best case’ for psychics. Skeptical Inquirer 34(2) (March/April). added, quite remarkably, “Also I told the police he was in a ———. 2011. Real-time, real-life abduction tests psychics. Center for house right around his neighborhood. I just forgot to list [it] Inquiry blog (April 15). Available online at https://centerforinquiry.org/ in the blog.” blog/real-time_real-life_abduction_tests_psychics/. Timmons, Ron. 2020. Interview by the author (March 4). Amid the sea of unhelpful and flat-out wrong information Benjamin Radford is a research fellow of the about Harley Dilly’s disappearance, there’s a single detail that Committee for Skeptical Inquiry, a longtime in- could possibly be interpreted as having been at least partly vestigator, and author of thirteen books on crit- validated. Duperow said that the boy was “on a couch gasp- ical thinking, including Big—If True: Adventures ing for air.” This is of course factually wrong. Dilly was never in Oddity. on a couch gasping for air. But he was likely gasping for air in the tight chimney space where he suffocated. How im- pressive is this “gasping” detail (assuming we cherry-pick and blithely ignore the clearly wrong other half of this vision)?

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 59 Fresh Thinking or Exploitation? JANYCE L. BOYNTON

Deej. 2017. 72 min. Directed by Robert Rooy. Executive Pro- igh school and college class- ducers: Steven Ascher and Jeanne Jordan. rooms around the United States were offered a free Hvirtual screening of the movie Deej for Disability Awareness Month in October 2020. The film was marketed as a Peabody Award–winning, Emmy- nominated film on autism, adoption, and inclusion that was excellent for the virtual classroom. This might seem like a great opportunity to learn about the struggles and triumphs of living with autism, but unfortunately Deej— device. However, dozens of controlled communication devices independently. along with Autism Is a World (2004), A studies and eight systematic reviews He has the gross and fine motor skills Mother’s Courage: Talking Back to Autism reveal there is no empirical evidence to turn on a voice activation device by (2009), Wretches and Jabberers (2011), that shows FC messages independently himself (after typing via facilitation), Far from the Tree (2017), and The represent the thoughts of people with so it is difficult to understand why he Reason I Jump (2020)—is an uncritical disabilities. Rather, facilitators—not needs anyone to hold his arm while he promotion of a discredited technique the people with disabilities—inadver- types. called facilitated communication (FC). tently influence and control the typed The movie’s editors chose to leave messages. Most major health and advo- out some vital information. They show Unfortunately, Deej cacy organizations, including American evidence-based methods for developing Speech-Language-Hearing Associa- language, reading, and written language is an uncritical tion, International Society for Augmen- skills on the screen, but the viewer is led promotion of a dis- tative and Alternative Communication, to believe DJ’s ability to read suddenly and the American Association on Intel- “clicked” in the fourth grade. These un- credited technique lectual and Developmental Disabilities, expected literacy skills appeared to co- called facilitated accept the science and have position incide with his introduction to FC in statements opposing FC’s use. 2001. His adoptive father, Ralph, has communication. Deej follows DJ Savarese, a young written extensively about facilitated man with autism, through his final years communication. During a college en- of high school, as he visits prospective trance interview, DJ is asked if he plans Popularized by Douglas Biklen of colleges, and into his first two years at to type with his mom, an assistant, or by Syracuse University and founder Rose- Oberlin College. DJ’s appearance on himself when he attends class. It’s a fair mary Crossley of Australia, FC is mar- screen is tightly controlled. Despite question; colleges want to provide the keted as a way to help people with se- claims that he has learned to read and necessary support to individuals with vere communication difficulties tap into write “freely,” DJ demonstrates a limited disabilities and, in the case of FC, know previously locked in language and liter- ability to communicate independently. who is actually completing the course- acy skills. To get FC to “work,” a facil- Most of the time, his adoptive mother work. The facilitated answer is that he itator provides emotional and physical accompanies him to facilitate. In one will be typing independently, but scenes support, plus prompts and cuing, to help brief scene he uses sign language, but showing DJ in the classroom with a fa- the person with disabilities type out let- the people around DJ are not shown cilitator by his side 100 percent of the ters on a letter board or communication encouraging him to verbalize or use time do not back up this claim. Answers

60 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer REVIEW]

to questions are pre-programmed, leav- to DJ’s adoptive mother: “No assistance facilitators, knowingly or unknowingly, ing open the possibility that the facilita- device can do what she does.” This, per- substitute their own voices for those of tor, not DJ, typed in the responses. haps, says more than the producers of people with disabilities. Evidence-based the film intended. It is obvious that DJ communication methods and technol- is surrounded by people who love him ogy exist today that allow individuals to The movie’s editors and want him to succeed. No one em- express themselves independently and chose to leave bodies this more than his mother, who without interference from a facilitator. quit her job and moved to Ohio to make While Deej brings up valid issues of out some vital sure her son has the 24/7 care that he accessibility, independence, freedom of information. needs. But as devoted and well-meaning speech, and disability rights—as well as as she is, his mother is most likely au- the need for care and support for people thoring the messages. She—not DJ—is with disabilities and their families—it doing the hard work of communicat- is a missed opportunity to teach people There is a disturbing animated ing. FC is built around trust and not about what living with autism is really scene through which DJ’s childhood is questioning where the messages come like. The story told in the documen- discussed—one that alludes to neglect from (that is, presuming competence). tary is one sided and built on facilita- and abuse by his birth mother. Words That FC “works” only with his mother tor-authored messages. A more honest attributed to DJ are spoken by the nar- is a convenient way to explain why FC look into DJ’s life, not a projection of rator: “I see scary people who want sex” doesn’t work in other contexts, equiva- what people around him want him to and “I am very afraid.” False allegations lent to psychics who claim to be able to be, would better honor him and others of abuse cases have plagued FC from “read” only those who already believe in with disabilities in the promotion and its inception, and if these thoughts and their powers. FC supporters (or as his acceptance of who they are as valuable feelings expressed in the documentary family is described in the movie, “fresh members of society. • were facilitated (rather than expressed thinkers”) view skeptics as being unfairly independently by DJ), then how much biased against FC and people with dis- Janyce L. Boynton, MEd, BS, is an artist, edu- of the story is real and how much is fab- abilities. This could not be further from cator, and former facilitator who advocates for evidence-based practices in the field of com- ricated by the facilitator? the truth. Critics are concerned that the munication sciences and disorders. One sentence stands out in reference practice of FC is exploitative, because

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 61 NEW AND NOTABLE]

Listing does not preclude future review. Written by Skeptical Inquirer Editor Kendrick Frazier

BIASED: Uncovering the Hidden Prejudice That disagree with him) should be regarded “as treasonous, disloyal rats Shapes What We See, Think, and Do. Jennifer L. and foes”—and how supporters so easily bought into that view. It is an Eberhardt, PhD. One of the world’s leading experts important and timely psychological examination of the Trump phenom- in unconscious racial bias, Stanford psychology enon as a case study that supports their larger theme. Houghton Mifflin professor Eberhardt (she was also the subject of Harcourt, 2020, 450 pp., $16.99. a 2018 SI article) shows us the many surprising places and ways that racial bias affects all sorts of PRO TRUTH: A Practical Plan for Putting Truth decisions we make in the course of our lives—from Back into Politics. Gleb Tsipursky and Tim Ward. the homes we buy, the people we hire, and the Democracy works only if citizens value truth. This way we treat our neighbors. She probes the role of book is an analysis of post-truth politicians from implicit bias in the criminal justice system and elsewhere and outlines the vantage of behavioral science research and successful approaches to new ways of thinking in understanding and communications strategies, and it provides some changing our biases. Told in congenial first-person style that helps answers. Topics include why we should care about bring us along with her. Penguin Books, 2020, 348 pp., $18.95 truth in politics, the behavioral science of political deception, the illusory truth effect, the decline of BIG—IF TRUE: ADVENTURES IN ODDITY. Benjamin mainstream media and rise of social and online Radford. A welcome collection of seventy of Ben media, rational communication, collaborative truth-seeking, the pro- Radford’s Q&A Skeptical Inquiree columns from the truth pledge, and building a pro-truth movement. The United States Skeptical Inquirer. They demonstrate his patience, and some other countries are at a precipice, the authors say. As trust thoughtfulness, and thoroughness in sharing reli- erodes, will we slide down the slippery slope where we believe only able information, informed analysis, and the skep- what our own side says and reject all other information? “Or can we tical viewpoint with curious readers. Organized take a step back, onto the firmament of truth?” John Hunt Publishing/ into eight sections: Legends, Monsters, Ghosts, Changemakers Books, 2020, 270 pp., $19.95. Mysterious Powers & Places, UFOs, Health and Medicine, Conspiracies, and Skepticism (examples QUACKONOMICS: The Cost of Unscientific of the latter: “Legitimizing Woo” and “Dealing with Believers”). Radford Healthcare in the U.S. … and Other Fraud Found says he sees the book as “a kind of skepticism-tackles-the-weird” along the Way. Ethan L. Welch, MD. Welch, emeritus collection that didn’t exist when he was growing up as a teenager and professor of surgery at University of Rochester young adult. Now it does. Rhombus Publishing, 2020, 267 pp., $27.50. School of Medicine, examines quackery practiced under the cover of complementary and alternative COSMIC ODYSSEY: How Intrepid Astronomers at medicine (CAM). He first summarizes the historical Palomar Observatory Changed Our View of the origins of scientific thought, traces the origins of Universe. Linda Schweizer. Foreword by Dava antiscience in the United States, defines the pla- Sobel. A PhD astronomer shares the iconic Mount Palomar Observatory’s cumulative and rich con- cebo effect, and then documents the absence of tributions to science and how the discoveries science in twenty-five examples of CAM, from acupuncture to homeop- happened and matured from theory to accepted athy, from to , from spiritual healing to . Individual chapters explore such topics . Researching the cost of unscientific healthcare, he finds it is as the universe’s depths, Milky Way archaeology, over $40 billion, but when you consider fraud embedded in our medical galactic violence, quasars, galactic dust and gas, starbursts and super- systems, he estimates the damage at $100 billion. Page Publishing, massive black holes, the emergence of structure, the solar system, and 2020, 444 pp., $24.95. astronomical exotica. Interestingly written and handsomely produced with many color photos and images. MIT Press, 2020, 312 pp., $39.95. UNDERSTANDING EVOLUTION. Kostas Kampourakis. Why are we still having to debate evolution? MISTAKES WERE MADE (but Not by Me), Third Kampourakis (University of Geneva), editor of the Edition: Why We Justify Foolish Belief, Bad Cambridge University Press series Understanding Decisions, and Hurtful Acts. Carol Tavris and Elliot Life, says it is not just due to the resistance of reli- Aronson. The authors, both noted psychologists, gion; evolution is in fact a counterintuitive idea that present a new update of a near-classic work on cog- is difficult to understand. This book is an attempt nitive dissonance and our self-justifying thinking, to bridge that gap of understanding. This is a new first published in 2007. The book’s new 10,000-word edition of a 2014 book that was originally a textbook final chapter, “Dissonance, Democracy, and the Demagogue,” brings us but now has been rewritten for a general audience. Its driving force is into the chaotic world of the Trump administration. They say no appli- to identify and unpick the conceptual obstacles to understanding. He cation of dissonance theory is more important than understanding how discusses evolution in the public sphere, evolution and religion, the his presidency further widened the chasms between political parties, conceptual obstacles to understanding evolution, the development of friends, and families. “Americans will long be facing the moral, emotional, Darwin’s theory, evolutionary processes, and evolution and the nature and political residue of his presidency,” they write in the introduction. of science. In concluding remarks, the author thoughtfully and person- The final chapter examines in detail the process by which Trump and his ally addresses the implications of evolutionary theory for human life. administration fostered his view that opponents (or people who simply Cambridge University Press, 2020, 193 pp., $14.95.

62 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer LETTERS TO THE EDITOR]

COVID Conspiracies | Tyranny of Now | Epidemics and Freedom | Examining | Icebound Atlantis? ing. They deemed it indefensible Quantum Voodooism “God’s bunny” as a rhetorical of me to go into Sargent’s office, vehicle for critiquing creationism Regarding Sadri Hassani’s open his randomization enve- was informative and fun (“Cre- Vol. 44 No. 6 | November/December 2020 “Sources of Quantum Voodoo- lopes, and set traps—all of which ationist Funhouse, Episode 5: ism” (November/December The Scientific I knew was necessary for me to God’s Pet Bunny,” November/ Frauds behind the 2020), it is the “unique character December 2020). Rice points False Vaccine- try to get to the truth, and Sar- of quantum physics”—as op- Autism Claim out that the entire creationist gent had explicitly given me the posed to, say, condensed matter framework is simply incoherent run of his office. physics or even relativity—that when matched against the fossil We did not know then that makes it such an attractive ap- and geological record. He is, of this is the common fate of whis- parent foundation of holistic or course, spot-on. tleblowers, though we do now. New Age . Central When Sargent died two years But there’s another, rarely Hans J. Eysenck: Downfall of a ideas such as “mind over matter” Why We Need Science noted element to creationist The Scientist’s Skepticism ago and I responded to Harley’s Quantum Voodooism and the interconnectedness of When 100 Scientists Opposed Einstein thinking that he doesn’t touch on. Creationist Funhouse: God’s Pet Bunny obituary (Blackmore 2020), I everything in the universe seem Put simply, when creationists use thought I would never have to to be backed by quantum theory: return to this miserable topic. 1) The need to include the mea- the “flood” hypothesis to explain Downfall of a Charlatan Sadly, it goes on. surement apparatus in a rigorous the data they are acknowledging discussion of particles’ behavior is that the god of their belief system References I was disappointed with David (wrongly) extrapolated to imply is the greatest mass murderer of Marks’s long and interesting ar- Blackmore, S.J. 1987a. A report of a visit to Carl the necessity of a conscious ob- all time. I pointed this out to a ticle on the downfall of Hans Sargent’s laboratory. Journal of the Society server; and 2) Nonlocal correla- creationist I met at a party one for Psychical Research 54: 186–198. Eysenck (November/December tions between entangled particles evening. He, of course, had never 2020) for two reasons. ———. 1987b. (A response to Harley, considered this and countered Matthews and Sargent). Journal of the are (wrongly) thought to prove First, he criticizes Eysenck for Society for Psychical Research 54: 275–276 the existence of universal connec- with the claim that all those who his “credulous defense of para- Blackmore, S. 1996. In Search of the Light: The tions between apparently separate drowned were Sodomites, pa- psychology.” But parapsychology Adventures of a Parapsychologist. Amherst, entities. gans, atheists, or other miscre- NY: Prometheus Books is a legitimate field of science, wants to be a ants who hadn’t accepted the one even if the phenomena it seeks ———. 2020. A response to the obituary for Carl Sargent. Journal of the Society for “warm” alternative to the “cold,” true god. I asked him why, if this may never be found. It is only Psychical Research 84: 3, 182–183 purely materialistic world devoid were true, his god also needed to the positive claims of psi that Ey- rid the world of newborn babies, Susan Blackmore of meaning associated with New- senck should not have defended. pregnant mothers, devout priests, Ermington, Devon, U.K. tonian physics and its clockwork Second, and more personal, is universe. If physics is to provide rabbis, and acolytes, all of whom Marks’s description of my work corroborative evidence for spiri- perished. He did not look happy with Carl Sargent. The ganzfeld tualism, it is thus natural to look and walked away. I’ve often won- methods Sargent used are com- for it in the quantum realm, dered if this revelation made any plex, and my discoveries and David Marks replies: which is not seen as an expansion impact on his belief system. their implications are hard to un- but as a refutation of classical derstand. Yet Marks does not cite Arthur S. Reber, PhD My SI article “Downfall of a physics. Point Roberts, Washington my original article or my book re- Charlatan” focused on Hans Ey- Unfortunately, the abuse of counting the whole story (Black- senck and Carl Sargent cheating quantum mechanics by purvey- In “God’s Pet Bunny,” Stan- more 1987a; Blackmore 1996). with data and promoting false ors of esoteric nonsense is thus ley Rice refers to the Cambrian Without these, it is impossible claims in parapsychology. Sadly, not likely to go out of fashion. period and writes, “Geologists for readers to understand what as the whistleblower, Susan Black- It is just too good of a victim. have given names to each of the happened and draw their own more in her letter reveals she suf- And yet, quantum theory itself periods of earth history. Some, conclusions from the evidence. fered “the pain of discovering that provides powerful counterargu- like Cambrian, were named He does, however, cite Sargent’s my esteemed colleague and friend ments. If everything is connected after places where they were first and Harley’s rebuttals of my ar- [Sargent] was probably cheating” to everything else due to entan- found (in this case, Cambridge).” ticle but not my reply to them and that she was traumatized by glement, then why do entangled The period is named after (Blackmore 1987b). the Parapsychological Association’s particles need to be so thoroughly Cambria (the Latin name for Marks includes answers to admonishment for the manner insulated against the outside Wales) and specifically the questions he emailed to me. But of that exposure. In turn, Susan world in actual experiments? Cambrian mountains in Wales he did not ask me about the Para- Blackmore admonishes me for not (between Snowdonia and the Dr. Philippe Leick psychological Association’s inves- citing her extensive publications Brecon Beacons), not the mark- Gerlingen, Germany tigation. He writes that they rep- on this topic, which are listed in edly unmountainous fenlands of rimanded Sargent but not that her letter. Clearly, there can be no Cambridge. they also reprimanded me very saints in this unsavory episode, only heavily, which was traumatic for sinners. Please let’s agree that this John Ritson me on top of the pain of discov- chapter in the checkered history of God’s Pet Bunny London, United Kingdom ering that my esteemed colleague parapsychology and “skepticism” I am enjoying your series “Cre- and friend was probably cheat- can finally be closed. Stanley Rice’s use of Haldane’s

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 63 ationist Funhouse” in Skepti- ing to their offices at the Capitol up Republicans to vote, but Re- Blackness must be punished. cal Inquirer. In Episode Five could see it. publicans (many from the Deep Blackness is the crime of crimes (“God’s Pet Bunny”), there is an Two hundred anti-lynching South) didn’t vote No—they just as the senator-elect from Missis- error. On p. 55, there is a list of bills were introduced in Con- declined to vote at all. No official sippi has amply proven. Why is marsupial counterparts, includ- gress; three made it past the roll call was taken, and the press it a crime? Because it threatens ing marsupial bats. However, bats House to the Senate only to be was left guessing who didn’t sign . are placentals, not marsupials. stalled by the Southern Dem- on. But note this is decades after David Gardner ocrats. These laws would have society was supposed to change. Ray C. Telfair II, PhD Lacey, Washington made lynching a federal crime, Certified Wildlife Biologist Erik Bailey as the states (citing states rights) Whitehouse, Texas Vallejo, California Lynching is a terrible blight on were doing nothing about it. The American history and should Civil Rights Acts of the 1960s Thank you for publishing Guy be taught. Unfortunately, Guy Stanley Rice replies: made the need for such legisla- Harrison’s excellent commen- Harrison’s commentary is mis- I was referring, apparently a little tion moot. tary, “Why White America Must leading. George Floyd’s death is too carelessly, to the sugar glider, White people constantly ac- Learn the History of Lynching.” regrettable, but he was a career Petaurus breviceps, which more cuse black people of living in It was well researched and rea- criminal, high on drugs, who closely resembles a flying squirrel the past. (“This happened years soned and couldn’t have been resisted arrest. Floyd’s attacker than a bat. ago, so get over it! Things have more timely or important. The was arrested and will stand changed!”) Well, those same articles published in Skeptical trial. Floyd was not lynched as History of Lynchings Southern Democrats were ab- Inquirer are of the highest qual- defined by the Tuskegee Institute. sorbed into the Republican Party ity, and Harrison’s commentary More questionable is Har- I loved Guy P. Harrison’s com- in 1968 as part of the Southern was no exception. Thank you. rison asserting 4,000 lynchings mentary on lynching (“Why Strategy for their seniority; in from post–Civil War through Timothy J. Redmond White America Must Learn the trade, the Republicans will never 1950 averaged “one black person Amherst, New York History of Lynching”), but I (and still haven’t) adopt a civil lynched per week spread over rights platform. guess he ran out of space to in- In September 1914, W.E.B. Du- nearly nine decades.” That’s a clude some important additions. In 2005, the Senate adopted Bois—one of the founders of preposterous perversion of aver- Though lynching was prom- a Non-Binding Resolution to the NAACP—penned a pow- age. What do the data actually inent in the South, the South “apologize” for failing to pass erful and eloquent editorial on show? The last year averaging one wasn’t the only region it was an anti-lynching bill. This reso- lynching for Crisis, the monthly lynching per week was 1922— done; the Northeast was the only lution neither offered compen- publication of that organization ninety-nine years ago. Subse- region that didn’t record a lynch- sation nor changed any law. It for which he served as editor for quently, lynchings markedly de- ing. was simply a resolution. By the twenty-four years. It should be clined. Give credit to the brave Each time there was a lynch- recess, the press reported that required reading for all Ameri- blacks and whites beginning in ing, the NAACP office in Wash- all the Democrats had voted for cans. the 1930s who roused a compla- ington, D.C., would hang a it, but most of the Republicans It is too long for you to pub- cent public to demand reforms. banner from their window that hadn’t. Then–Senate Majority lish, but I hope readers will look The struggle against racism con- said “A MAN WAS LYNCHED Leader Bill Frist, sensing a pub- it up and read it in full. Here is tinues, but today hate crimes are TODAY” so that Legislators driv- lic relations disaster, rounded one brief excerpt: aggressively prosecuted. Black voting and holding elective of- Once more a howling fice have steadily risen. Harrison mob of the best citizens loses credibility ignoring progress in a foremost state of by implying ninety years of stasis the union has vindicated when the data refutes him. the self-evident superi- ority of the white race. John Clinger The case was perfectly Bella Vista, Arkansas clear: it was not that murder had been done, I suspect Guy Harrison is right, for we Americans are and Americans do need to learn not squeamish at mere the history of lynching. Perhaps murder. Off and on, we they also need to learn the history do more of that kind of anti-Semitism in the United of thing than most folk. States, along with the negative Moreover, there was not stereotyping of Italian-Ameri- much of a murder— cans as low-life mobsters and the only the crazed act of historical mistreatment of Native a drunken man, quite Americans. However, I see no unpremeditated. The reason why Harrison’s harangue point is, he was black. should be presented on the pages

64 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer LETTERS TO THE EDITOR]

of Skeptical Inquirer, a pub- in a very elegant and logical way. Another Side of Randi read, “You are the guiding star of lication with a specific focus on They hired three feng shui “ex- his existence.” Not a person of Some of the public, no doubt, paranormal claims and attacks on perts” and had each in turn fur- faith, Randi gave me the fortune, saw , who died Octo- science and rationalism. I do not nish the same large house. Need- closed his eyes, put his hands to- ber 20, 2020 (see “Remembering subscribe to this magazine to be less to say, each master came Randi,” January/February 2021), gether like he was praying, and hectored on social grievances and up with completely different as a somewhat gruff, insensitive, said something like, “Dear Lord, the need for white guilt. arrangements of furniture and rather close-minded paranormal I hope this fortune was meant for decorations—this after assuring Dennis Middlebrooks skeptic. It’s true that he had little Bryan.” Watching James Randi the magicians that they were Brooklyn, New York tolerance for . If Randi pray was utterly hysterical and is guided strictly by well-estab- had evidence someone was lying something not many have seen lished scientific principles honed or was a fake, he had little res- him do—even in fun. I still have over centuries, with no mysticism Guy Harrison replies: ervation about exposing them. the fortune taped to my refriger- or personal taste involved. Even All my data was drawn from No criticism here. But some of ator. It was another side of Randi. with this limited sample, I believe Lynching in America, an ongo- the public might be surprised to These are just a few examples. the case was closed. ing project by the Equal Justice know of Randi’s more sensitive Thanks, James Randi, for Initiative. It’s not protest-oriented N.C. Jones side. As an example, Randi had helping teach critical thinking material but sound historical schol- Winchester, Virginia a soft spot for impoverished chil- to so many. Thanks for alerting arship produced by respected histo- dren. I wish everyone could have the public about scams, flimflam, rians at credible universities. (See heard him speak on this topic. It and con artists. And thanks for Lynching in America: Confronting UFOs Again was another side of Randi. teaching me how to better handle the Legacy of Racial Terror at eji. The public might also be sur- the media. Just thanks. org.) The stats they use are sound, In the news and comment article prised to hear of Randi’s enter- Bryan Farha probably a huge underestimate in “UFOs Come Out of the Shad- taining sense of humor. Example: many cases given the cover-ups. ows. Again. Perhaps” (November/ Author, Pseudoscience and Randi once came to Oklahoma Deception It’s understandable and ex- December 2020), author Mick City to speak and we had dinner Professor of Behavioral pected that this topic would upset West asks rhetorically, “Why one night at a Chinese restau- Studies in Education people. If talking/writing in an would [defense contractor] Eric rant. When we were finished, we Davis know something [about Oklahoma City University honest manner about lynching opened our fortune cookies. His thousands of black people didn’t government UFO research] that make us uncomfortable, something Senate Majority Leader Harry would be very wrong. Again, my Reid would not … ?” commentary did not make claims Well, for one thing, Mr. Reid that police kill more blacks than hasn’t been Majority Leader since [FEEDBACK whites today or that every victim 2015 and hasn’t even been a Sen- was a perfect citizen. It’s about the ator since 2017, while Mr. Da- The letters column is a forum on mat­ters raised in previous missing historical awareness in our vis’s purported briefing occurred issues. Letters should be no longer than 225 words. society that leads to confusion and in March 2020. For another Due to the volume of letters we receive, not all can be insensitivity. Skeptical Inquirer, thing, while the Senate Majority published. Send letters as email text (not attachments) to from my perspective as a reader for Leader would certainly be privy [email protected]. In the subject line, provide your many decades, is not only com- to a lot of classified information, surname and informative identification,­ e.g.: “Smith Letter on Jones evolution art­icle.” In­clude your name and address­ at the end of the mitted to busting UFO cases and there are thousands of classified letter. You may also mail your letter to the editor to 944 Deer Dr. NE, explaining astrology but also up- programs and Special Access Albuquerque, NM 87122. lifting and educating humanity Projects. No one person could so that we may be safer and more possibly be aware of all of them. efficient in our daily lives. I think More to the point, it seems to this essay fits given the times, and I me, is that Mr. Davis is claiming applaud the magazine for having that he gave a briefing on UFOs the courage to run it. to the Defense Department (DoD). Mr. Davis is the source of the purported information. Feng Shui The fact that he gave a classified briefing to DoD officials at best In his review of the book Feng shows that they were interested in Shui: Teaching about Science and what Mr. Davis thought he knew Pseudoscience (November/De- about UFOs—not that the DoD cember 2020), Terence Hines laments the lack of formal testing officials themselves had any in- of feng shui. However, years ago, formation. on their television series Bullshit!, W. David Pattison Penn & Teller did test feng shui Leland, North Carolina

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2021 65 Skeptical Inquirer is now available for digital-only subscription.

Our digital subscribers can read the full contents of each new issue and have total access to Skeptical Inquirer’s entire online archive, dating back to 1976, without receiving physical magazines by mail.

Current print subscribers also have full digital access to our online articles and archives. Print subscribers can access the digital con- tent by visiting skepticalinquirer.org, clicking “Activate” in the top-right corner of your screen, and then filling out the corresponding form. Our digital content is viewable on desktop, laptop, tablet, or smartphone.

Consider giving a gift subscription to a young person you know who might appreciate Skeptical Inquirer’s content but prefers to read on a digital device—or to a friend overseas.

66 Volume 45 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer

CENTERS FOR INQUIRY www.centerforinquiry.org/about/branches

United States Branches Scientific and Technical Consultants CFI Austin Austin, Texas (512) 454-0977 Gary Bauslaugh, John F. Fischer, I.W. Kelly, Daisie Radner, [email protected] writer and editor, forensic analyst, Orlando, FL prof. of psychology, Univ. of prof. of philosophy, SUNY Buffalo CFI Indiana Saskatchewan, Victoria, B.C., Canada Eileen Gambrill, Robert H. Romer, 350 Canal Walk, Suite A Canada Indianapolis, Indiana 46202 Richard E. Berendzen, prof. of social welfare, prof. of physics, Amherst College (317) 423-0710 astronomer, Washington, DC Univ. of California at Berkeley Richard H. Lange, Karl Sabbagh, [email protected] MD, Mohawk Valley Physician Martin Bridgstock, Luis Alfonso Gámez, journalist, Richmond, Surrey, England Health Plan, Schenectady, NY CFI Long Island senior lecturer, School of Science, science journalist, Bilbao, Spain Robert J. Samp, Long Island, NY Griffith Univ., Brisbane, Australia Sylvio Garattini, Rebecca Long, assistant prof. of education and (631) 793-9382 nuclear engineer, president of Geor Richard Busch, director, Mario Negri Pharma­cology ­gia medicine, Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison [email protected] Council Against Health Fraud, , GA magician/mentalist, Pittsburgh, PA Institute, Milan, Italy Steven D. Schafersman, CFI Michigan Shawn Carlson, Laurie Godfrey, John R. Mashey, asst. prof. of geology, Miami Univ., OH computer scientist/executive (Bell Labs, PO Box 3534, Grand Rapids, MI 49501-3534 Society for Amateur Scientists, anthropologist, Univ. of Chris Scott, [email protected] East Greenwich, RI then Silicon Valley), analyst of climate- Gerald Goldin, statistician, London, England change denial, contributor to DeSmogBlog CFI New York City Roger B. Culver, mathematician, Rutgers Univ., NJ and Skeptical Science, Portola Valley, CA Stuart D. Scott Jr., P.O. Box 26241, Brooklyn, NY 11202 prof. of astronomy, Colorado State Univ. Donald Goldsmith, Thomas R. McDonough, associate prof. of anthropology, [email protected] Felix Ares de Blas, astronomer; president, Interstellar Media astrophysicist, Pasadena, CA SUNY Buffalo CFI Northeast Ohio prof. of computer science, Alan Hale, Erwin M. Segal, PO Box 2379, Akron, OH 44309 Univ. of Basque, San Sebastian, Spain James E. McGaha, astronomer, Southwest Institute for Space astronomer, USAF pilot (ret.) prof. of psychology, SUNY Buffalo (330) 798-0843 Nahum J. Duker, Research, Alamogordo, NM [email protected] Carla Selby, assistant prof. of pathology, Joel A. Moskowitz, Clyde F. Herreid, anthropologist /archaeologist CFI Portland Temple Univ. director of medical , Calabasas prof. of biology, SUNY Buffalo PO Box 3378, Portland, OR 97208 Mental Health Services, Los Angeles Steven N. Shore, Taner Edis, (503) 593-7904 Gabor Hrasko, prof. of astrophysics, Univ. of Pisa, Italy Division of Science/Physics Julia Offe, [email protected] chairman of the European Council of Truman State Univ. neurobiologist, science journalist, creator Waclaw Szybalski, Sk CFI San Francisco eptical Organizations (ECSO), president of German Science Slam professor, McArdle Laboratory, Univ. Barbara Eisenstadt, San Francisco, CA, [email protected] of Hungarian Skeptics of Wisconsin–Madison psychologist, educator, clinician, John W. Patterson, Michael Hutchinson, East Greenbush, NY prof. of materials science and Sarah G. Thomason, CFI Tampa Bay author; Skeptical Inquirer en­gineering, Iowa State Univ. prof. of linguistics, Univ. of Pittsburgh, PA Box 139 c/o O’Keefe William Evans, representative, Europe 4011 S. Manhattan Ave., Tampa, FL 33611-1265 prof. of journalism and James R. Pomerantz, Tim Trachet, [email protected] Philip A. Ianna, creative media, Univ. of Alabama prof. of psychology, Rice Univ. journalist and science writer, honorary assoc. prof. of astronomy, Tim Printy, chairman of SKEPP, Belgium CFI Washington DC Bryan Farha, Univ. of Virginia 1012 14th St. NW, Suite 205, Washington, DC 20005 prof. of behavioral studies in amateur astronomer, UFO skeptic, former David Willey, (202) 733-5279 ext. 200 education, Oklahoma City Univ. Navy nuclear reactor operator/division physics instructor, Univ. of Pittsburgh, PA [email protected] chief, Manchester, NH CFI West 2535 W. Temple St, Los Angeles, CA 90026 (323) 666-9797, [email protected]

CFI Western New York 1310 Sweet Home Road, Amherst, NY 14228 (716) 636-4869 ext. 402 [email protected]

International Branches

CFI Argentina Los Antiguos, Santa Cruz Province, Argentina Alejandro Borgo [email protected] CFI Canada PO Box 24006 Subscribe or order back issues at Hazeldean RPO Ottawa, ON skepticalinquirer.org K2M 2C3 (613) 663-8198 [email protected] CFI China China Research Institute for Science Population NO. 86, Xueyuan Nanlu Haidian Dist. Beijing, 100081 China 8610-62170515 Zheng Nian [email protected]

CFI France Universite of Nice Faculte Des Sciences Parc Valrose, 06108 Nice Cedex 2, France +33-489.15.02.28 (only on Wed. p.m.) Henri Broch [email protected] CFI Kenya Center For Inquiry–Kenya United Youth Group House, Wing B Makadara, Jogoo Road Kenya George Ongere [email protected]

CFI Peru Calle El Corregidor 318 Urb. El Manzano, Rimac Lima 25-PERU Manuel Paz y Mino [email protected]

CFI Poland 01-876 Warszawa Ul. Broniewskiego 99/147 Poland Andrzej Dominczak [email protected]

CFI Spain Madrid, Spain Luis Alfonso Gamez [email protected] Churning Texture in Jupiter’s Atmosphere

On January 13, 2021, NASA announced that its Juno spacecraft, Juno captured these elaborate atmospheric jets in Jupiter's north- in orbit around Jupiter since July 2016, will become an explorer ern mid-latitude region. This detailed, color-enhanced image re- of the full Jovian system—its planets and rings. NASA authorized veals a complex topography in Jupiter’s cloud tops, including rela- a mission extension for Juno through September 2025, or until tively small, bright, “pop-up” clouds rising above the surrounding death of the spacecraft. This will allow Juno to make multiple ren- features. Citizen scientist Kevin M. Gill processed this JunoCam dezvous with three of Jupiter’s most intriguing Galilean moons: image, taken on April 10, 2020, as the Juno spacecraft performed Ganymede, Europa, and Io. its twenty-sixth close flyby of the planet.

IMAGE DATA: NASA/JPL-CALTECH/SWRI/MSSS IMAGE PROCESSING BY KEVIN M. GILL © CC BY