CIBC WOOD GUNDY HINES INVESTMENTS Hines Investment
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CIBC WOOD GUNDY HINES INVESTMENTS HINESIGHT Hines Investment Management Toll Free: 1 844 887-4995 [email protected] www.hinesinvestments.ca CIBC PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT WELCOME TO THE BEAR MARKET OF 2020 Gerald Hines, Senior Portfolio Manager, First Vice- Our philosophy “to preserve capital” continues to President, Hines Investments, CIBC Wood Gundy guide our decisions. There are two kinds of losses: Sheldon Hines, Portfolio Manager, Hines Investments, CIBC Wood Gundy 1) Loss of Capital 2) Loss of Opportunity We preserve capital, knowing there is always an Reviewing our thoughts from our first quarter of 2020 newsletter (written just before Christmas in opportunity 2019), we were optimistic. Our disciplined Highlights in Hinesight: principles indicated a path that the market would continue its trend to higher valuations. This - 2020 has ushered in the start of a Bear essentially proved correct for the first month of the year. Then, as you know, the COVID-19 began. Market - Overcoming Investor Fear As the market rose in January and during the - Corporate Debt Crisis beginning of a correction in February, we moved to - Top 3 Trends in Technology a very large cash position between 25% & 40% in our portfolios. This was not luck but rather a simple practice of following our discipline. Our principles began highlighting higher risk in the market and we took action to protect capital. A simple example to highlight our discipline is Boeing airlines. In December 2019, in our first quarter (Q1) 2020 newsletter, we highlighted the downside risk in Boeing. At that time our portfolios did not own Boeing. As you can reference our Q1 2020 Hinesight Newsletter, we targeted $240 for Boeing (falling from a price of $320). Today Boeing is approximately $100, with a debt rating downgrade. CIBC PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT DO WHAT IS HARD, LIFE WILL BE EASY THE NEXT BULL MARKET Our philosophy is to always have a strategic plan of On a happier note, we know each Bear Market action. This plan encompasses targets to buy and leads to a new Bull Market. In Jan 2019 we wrote targets to sell. Capitalizing on a loss when one about the 20- and 40-year market cycles that sells can be emotionally difficult. Adhering to a bottomed together in 1942 and 1982. They are due disciplined investment style enables decisions and to bottom again in 2022 (see chart below). This is a action to be taken. This discipline easily avoids the concept based on past reality. fear of risk and loss, or the phrase “hold, don’t sell as markets will return in the future”. It is interesting that each of the past Bull market was led by a new wave of demographic cycles. Men As we approach the Q2 of 2020 (March 21, 2020), coming home from the War in 1942, greeted by a we need to be mindful of the future direction of population of lovely ladies. This began the “Baby the markets. It's important for each of us to Boomer” generation. understand that the markets discount the future. Our role as Portfolio Managers is to take advantage The Baby Boomers began having their children in of this opportunity, acting in the face of fear. No 1982. There were approximately 71M Millennials doubt over the last month our readers have been born from 1981 to 1996 (in comparison, not far inundated by the media and by numerous behind 74M Baby Boomers). newsletters on what has happened. Many of these stories are inundated with fear. Fear is the Peak spending years are usually between age 35 – emotion that allows our minds to avoid stepping up 50. In 2022, the average age of a Millennial will be and making calculated logical investment 33 years old. decisions. Each Bull market has a new demand cycle. Today Our strategy, based on the factual information we we can only predict. Hines Investments has been know today, combined with our knowledge of how investigating discoveries in artificial intelligence markets react historically in downturns is as and 3D Printing for possible investment follows: opportunities. • Today, the S&P 500, at 2300, is down 30% Our discipline only allows us to invest in companies (March 23, 2020) from its peak (3,386) in Feb with strong financials. Thus, we may be 2020; the first wave down in our view. We constrained in this area, but will maintain our expect (absence of worse events at this time) following to take advantage when the time comes. A new wave of demand will arise, albeit in for an oversold Bear market to contain an up leg, retracing 50% of the prior down leg. This different sectors, just like past Bulls. would target 2800-2950 area. • Upon reaching our target area above, we will Preserving capital today allows us opportunity to then raise cash again. A “V” shaped recovery invest in the future. back to old highs, in our opinion, is not in the cards. • In the final down leg of the Bear market, we are targeting approximately 1950 on the S&P 500. We believe this final leg down will be caused by an upcoming corporate credit crisis. • Hines Investments has gone to a fully invested format this past week. If we are wrong, we will exit. This follows our first principle: to protect capital. CIBC PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT INVESTOR FEAR If we “take the emotion out” we change our focus. If we practice this each day, you will start to change the way you make decisions. We can do Since COVID-19 went viral, investor ”fear of risk” this by: has sky-rocketed. Rightly so, within three weeks the stock indexes have dropped 30% (Mar 22, 1) Meditation: in a quiet setting, release all of 2020). This rise in fear is a classic human response our thoughts and breath slowly, listen to not only to a stock market drop, but in many other yourself breath and listen to your body. facets of life. This clears your mind of “all the noise”. 2) RAIN: Investor fear of risk and loss is the largest inhibitor Recognition: Stop and realize an emotional to the “critical thinking” side of our brain. Many response is overwhelming you investors will remember the most recent Bear Acceptance: Acknowledge the current Market of 2008-2009. This period of time was very situation or thought. Do not push your emotional in many ways for both investors and thought away. society in general. This period has programmed Investigation: Ask yourself Questions; Why many to hang onto fear vs making educated do I feel this way? Are these thoughts decisions in order to achieve success. I often logical? Are they real? remind investors, of how our body`s control center Non-Identification: You are the awareness flows: that is underneath every thought or emotion. Who you are is not defined by “The Mind Controls the Brain, the Brain controls your thoughts or emotions. the Body, the Body operates Muscle Functions. If you Control the Mind, You have Control” At Hines Investments, we develop a “Goals” based Wealth Plan with our clients. This process defines During times of Fear in the markets, controlling “Why” we invest. This allows each goal to be the emotions must be continuously practiced by invested within a defined risk parameter. In short, every investor. Negative “Group Think” can be this process takes the emotion out of investing. devastating, emotionally & physically if we allow This brings a natural sense of freedom and ease, an it. Our critical thinking goes to sleep when inner peace during an economic storm. someone else is telling us what to do. Take a moment to think about how you listen to cable TV We have been investing our clients` wealth for news, readings that promote fear or end of the over 35 years and have been through many market world syndrome. All of this allows the mind to ups and downs. Markets do not stay down forever. function in a negative or destructive way. Please We can`t control what the market will do and how review the above referenced quote and see if your it will react under various conditions. However, body’s mind is listening to that fear. Are you able we can always control the risk we take in the to feel the chain reaction? This is simple science market and that is reflective of the way our called Behavioral Science. portfolios have been handling the current volatility. By controlling our emotions, we can take advantage of the opportunity that will reward our clients long-term. Consider the advantage our team of professionals can bring to your overall wealth plan. CIBC PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT CORPORATE CREDIT CRISIS Sheldon Hines, Portfolio Manager, Hines spike for a short period of time, this can cause Investments, CIBC Private Wealth Management issues if this persists over a long period of time as this forces companies to refinance their debt at a higher interest rate. While the focus of late has been the plunge in US Treasury yields and the Federal Funds Rate, corporate fixed income has been experiencing its As interest rates have remained low over the past own turmoil. This is a topic that has not received a 10 years, investors have been forced to “move down the curve” to attain an attractive yield. This lot of media attention, but in our opinion, is a problem bubbling underneath the surface. This has lead borrowers in the BBB category to issue debt at very attractive rates. The risk is that some could be the caveat that will lead to a deeper recession later this year. of these BBB rated corporations have their debt downgraded to non-investment grade debt (termed a fallen angel) as the economy enters a recession.