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28 May 1999 Vol 40 No 11 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL 3 Down, not out Zambia has little to show to the for Mbeki Paris Club meeting this week. The election of a provincial prime minister may give a foretaste of Ironically, the government now future politics finds it easier to talk about human rights than about financial matters. The privatisation of the copper The smallest and richest of South Africa’s nine provinces seems certain to give the ruling African mines has still not happened and a National Congress a solid majority at the national and provincial elections on 2 June. Yet the arm- massive fire at the country's oil twisting which the party has used to pick its provincial leadership has put on show some problems refinery has affected the world price that will be faced again and again by , President ’s chosen heir as of copper. leader of the party and the nation. Gauteng Province covers what used to be known as the ‘ - 4 Triangle’, the country’s commercial, industrial, mining and financial hub. PWV’s new name means ‘place of gold’ in the Sesotho language and at the centre of this hub is Johannesburg. Nowadays, Reforming the Gauteng is home not only to the Basotho but to one fifth of the country’s population and it produces reformers two-fifths of its gross domestic product. Suitably enough for such a concentration of industry, the man Mbeki has installed as provincial ANC leader, and thus the next provincial , is a trades The ruling NDC is now finding its union leader - Mbhazima (formerly Sam) Shilowa, outgoing General Secretary of the Congress of own dissidents a bigger threat than the official opposition. At the heart South African Trade Unions (Cosatu). of NDC dissent is speculation about To make room for Shilowa, Mbeki’s party faction has ditched , the current Rawlings' future: is he really going ANC . Motshekga himself succeeded , who left the premiership to retire in December next year? abruptly in early 1998. Sexwale’s mistake was to expose himself as a possible successor to Mandela in preference to Mbeki. Motshekga’s error was to stand for the Gauteng premiership - and to win 5 - against Mbeki’s choice for the job, Reverend Frank Chikane, the former church leader who is now Director General of Mbeki’s office. Divided republic Action and faction As Tanzanians wait with bated breath for the signature of the Motshekga also made some unfortunate allies, the most important of whom was Dan Mofokeng, the Zanzibar agreement, President provincial executive councillor in charge of housing, who has faced several (unproven) allegations Ben Mkapa tries to reassure donors of corruption, provoking vast press coverage and an ANC inquiry. Last week the ANC’s national with his 'clean hands' campaign. leadership struck Mofokeng's name off the party’s list of candidates for the Gauteng legislature, at the same time inserting Shilowa’s name at the top of the list, above Motshekga’s. Allegations of 6 ineptitude and corruption have haunted Gauteng’s administration since 1994, contributing to a steady decline in the provincial government’s approval rating among voters, from 61 per cent in Muluzi's democracy surveys in late 1995 to 35 per cent now. It was widely assumed that by intervening openly in provincial affairs, the ANC would put voters test off. The reverse seems to have happened. The pollsters suggest that the ANC would now be Malawi's second multi-party supported by 48 per cent of the province’s adult population, up from 39 per cent in September last elections are set to be a close run year. This surge in ANC support should carry the party’s share of the vote in the Province well race. The late dictator Dr 's old single party has now beyond the required 51 per cent; and Mbeki’s decision to replace Motshekga by Shilowa is expected formed an alliance with a party it to improve the party’s chances. had banned when it was in power. The original idea was that provincial premiers would be chosen by provincial legislatures. Now the ANC’s national leadership has changed the rules and simply tells provincial councillors who to vote for - except where the party lacks an overall majority (as, probably, in Western Cape Province, POINTERS 8 AC Vol 40 No 9), when the choice is left to the legislature. The ANC’s National Executive Committee is determined to block ambitious politicians, who might spread what the leadership calls Sierra Leone, South ‘factionalism’. For the elections on 2 June, three provincial premiers have been deposed. The risk is that local branches will resent intervention by headquarters, though in Motshekga’s case, his Africa/Nigeria and backing seems to be weaker than his supporters claimed. African Development Shilowa has for some time been part of Mbeki’s political inner circle and has sought, not always Bank successfully, to ease relations between Mbeki and the ANC’s intimate allies, Cosatu and the South Recalcitrant foes; smear African Communist Party. Last year, as left-wingers moved against Mbeki’s faction, Shilowa lost campaign; and replenishment. his place on the SACP Politbureau and came under increasing pressure within Cosatu. He may be 28 May 1999 Africa Confidential Vol 40 No 11

replaced as Cosatu’s General Secretary by Zwelinzima Vavi, an and that by no means all those registered will vote, the ANC is anti-Mbeki member of the SACP Politbureau, although moderates expected to garner well over half the votes cast. Of the 23 per cent in Cosatu may put forward their own candidate. whom polls have found to be undecided, most of those who do vote Shilowa, who wears a Lenin-style cap and projects himself as a will probably vote ANC. man of the people, is a good performer on the hustings. Soon after Shilowa will have trouble identifying able and reliable colleagues. his appointment as the ANC’s candidate for the premiership, it was One with a reputation for probity and hard work is Jabu Moleketi, revealed in the press that he had four debt judgments against him the executive councillor in charge of finance. His wife is Geraldine in court, totalling over 440,000 rand (US$71,000). He is married Fraser-Moleketi, the national Minister of Social Welfare, and he to one of South Africa’s top black businesswomen, Wendy Luhabe, worked in the ANC’s security and intelligence department in and they have a large home in Johannesburg’s expensive northern Zimbabwe under the name ‘Raphael’ during the late 1980s. Both suburbs. However, his luxurious lifestyle, which includes Audi husband and wife are senior members of the SACP (Fraser-Moleketi cars and expensive cigars, is not likely to deter many voters. is its Deputy Chairperson) but their primary loyalty is thought to be Motshekga, the man Shilowa replaced, has had his own share of to Mbeki. Another pretty able colleague on the ANC’s Gauteng list bad publicity, including unproven accusations that he misused is Mary Metcalfe, who has held the provincial education portfolio. donor funds at a law clinic he ran during the years. At the Shilowa’s ANC government in Gauteng is likely to be more start of his premiership, critics also remarked upon his long- sharply opposed than its predecessor. The Democratic Party’s standing relationships with Abel Rudman, an apartheid-era military provincial leader, Peter Leon (brother of DP leader ), intelligence agent and businessman, whose operations in can be a ferocious political opponent. At the last elections five included, briefly, running an anti-ANC newspaper; and with years ago, the DP won 5 per cent of the provincial vote; the polls Professor André Thomashausen, of the University of South Africa are now giving it 12 per cent. The DP is likely to take over as the in Pretoria, a former adviser to the Resistência Nacional official opposition from the New National Party, whose support Moçambicana, the Mozambican rebel movement which South has slipped from 24 per cent at the last polls to about 6 per cent now. Africa then backed, during P.W. Botha’s presidency. An ANC Support in Gauteng for Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi’s Inkatha internal inquiry concluded Motshekga’s management of donor Freedom Party (AC Vol 40 No 10) seems to have collapsed, from funds had been abysmal but made no finding on whether he had had 4 per cent five years ago to an estimated 1 per cent now. The new a relationship with apartheid-era security services. United Democratic Movement (UDM), led by General Bantu It seems, anyway, that the people of Gauteng are not very keen Holomisa, formerly boss of the Transkei ‘homeland’, and ex- on voting. Polling organisations indicate that the lower the turnout, National Party minister Roelf Meyer, registers less than 3 per cent the higher the ANC’s share of the vote will be. Given that one in support. The ANC may have a fairly clear run but winning the four adult citizens has failed to register on Gauteng’s electoral roll, provincial election is only the beginning.

Figuring it out Up to 2 million fewer votes may be cast in the national and provincial fewer of them than in 1994. Most results should be out by late elections on 2 June than in the 1994 polls, which ended the apartheid afternoon on 4 June, with final results, as the constitution requires, by era. Some opposition politicians claim the shortfall could be 5 million, 9 June. Each voter can cast two ballots: one for the National Assembly, now the excitement of the ‘Uhuru elections’ has faded into apathy. one for candidates for the nine provincial legislatures. A total of 916 They note that government has excluded certain categories of voter. seats is at stake: 400 in the National Assembly, 90 in the National Total eligible voters in 1994 were estimated at 22,709,152, of whom Council of Provinces (formerly the Senate), 426 in the provinces. 19,533,498 or 86 per cent voted. Blacks Africans, three-quarters of the Roughly one provincial seat is allocated for every 100,000 voters. 41 million population, had not previously been entitled to vote, so were KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) elects 80 members, Gauteng 73, not on the electoral rolls. Anyone who turned up at any polling station 63, Northern Province 49, Western Cape 39, North-West 32, and 30 in 1994 could cast a vote with rudimentary identity documents. each for Free State, Mpumalanga and Northern Cape. The system has been tightened up and a national electoral register The ANC is expected to win seven provinces. In KZN, it will compiled. The Independent Electoral Commission estimates there are probably overtake the but still rule the province 22.8 mn. electors, though population increase should have brought the in coalition with its rival; Inkatha may also be included in a national total to some 24.8 mn. Yet the IEC excluded 1.358 mn. citizens who unity government, with ministries for its leaders. In Western Cape the don’t possess the new bar-coded identity documents, as well as 581,000 result is still open (AC Vol 40 No 9). Polls give the ANC at least 60 permanent residents who have not taken South African citizenship - a per cent of the national vote; if there's an ANC-IFP pact, the new total of 1.939 mn. Some sceptics dispute the IEC’s claim to have government could muster the two-thirds majority needed to amend the registered 18,172,751 (just over 82 per cent) of the 22.8 mn. eligible constitution. The Democratic Party warns that the ANC might change voters. the constitution to extend the presidential term from 10 to 15 years; to The courts have been busy; the judges cancelled the IEC’s proposal water down the Bill of Rights in order to fight crime; to encroach on to exclude 150,000 prisoners awaiting trial; and after losing their property rights to help land reform; and to weaken institutions such as appeals, some opposition spokesmen still insist that excluding voters the Reserve Bank, judiciary and Auditor General. Mbeki’s team without bar-coded identity cards - many of whom are white - will knows though that such moves would dim South Africa’s image as a benefit the African National Congress. After much debate, it was model democracy - and alarm much-needed foreign investors. agreed that the 97,000 South Africans who live permanently abroad Parliament will assemble on 14 June for members to be sworn in and can vote if they register at South African missions. The IEC Chairperson, the new President, presumably Thabo Mbeki, will be elected. He has Judge Johan Kriegler, resigned after a dispute with the authorities, the sole prerogative to choose his cabinet, which he could announce on further adding to potential post-election controversies. 15 June or after his inauguration - and Nelson Mandela’s farewell - International observers will witness the polls but there’ll be far next day at the Union Buildings in Pretoria.

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picking its candidate; the MMD Chairperson for Information and ZAMBIA Publicity, Vernon Mwaanga, called a press conference in early May while Chiluba was abroad to confirm that the President could not constitutionally stand in 2001. On Chiluba’s return the MMD’s District Chairperson, Reuben Sunkutu, said the party Down, not out might have no choice but to field Chiluba, which would require a The mines are still not privatised but the constitutional amendment. Chiluba himself has kept mum. opposition is at last taking shape Most of the 37 registered political parties are ‘briefcase parties’, little more than one-person shows. Only three parties worry the Zambia had little to show the ’s Consultative Group in MMD; rights monitoring organisation Human Rights Watch Paris on 26-28 May. The future of the government may hang on presented a memorandum to the donors in Paris which, along with this meeting. International donors - including Britain, Denmark, other abuses, gave details of recent and systematic government the Netherlands and Norway - will decide whether to release the harassment of these parties. balance-of-payments support which they suspended in 1996, ● UNIP: Kenneth Kaunda announced after his release from because of the government’s poor record on human rights, detention in July 1998 that he was retiring from politics. However, governance and above all, economic performance. At the by January 1999, he had changed his tune, saying he had to carry Consultative Group meeting in France last May, bilateral donors on because of what was happening in Zambia. In fact, Kaunda had had insisted that their funds would not be released without found himself the only unifying factor in his party, amid chaos improvements in human rights and full privatisation of the copper caused by infighting between three factions - led by legal adviser mines. On Wednesday night, donors seemed pleased with Professor Mavunga, Party Secretary General Sebastian Zulu and governance progress. by son of Kenneth, Major Wezi Kaunda. UNIP’s respected Vice- The main sticking point is Zambia’s lack of progress with the President, Chief Inyambo Yeta, has stopped attending Central privatisation of Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines. In January, Committee meetings and has not fully recovered from his long South Africa’s (now London-based) Anglo American Corporation, detention in 1996, when he was held on charges (subsequently which owns 27 per cent stake of ZCCM, signed a memorandum of dropped) of supporting a bombing campaign. understanding to purchase its Nkana and Nchanga divisions. Yet Kaunda’s return to the UNIP helm has brought greater internal the sale remains dependent on a due diligence study of the Nkana discipline, plus victory in a fierce parliamentary by-election in and Nchanga mines, and on finding an investment partner before Mbala Central in February, which boosted UNIP’s morale. The October. Anglo has begun talks with Chile’s state-owned Codelco National Salvation Party of David Kasuba merged with UNIP in over a joint venture to exploit the mines but hit by the slump in the May. At UNIP’s National Council meeting in July, Kaunda is world price of copper, Codelco lost US$28 million in the first expected to win approval to lead the party in 2001. His return to quarter of 1999 and insists that the talks are only preliminary. active politics has also revived government harassment. On 31 Anglo was still optimistic on 26 May. Chinese and Polish state March, his Zambian nationality (he was born in what is now companies have bought up other parts of ZCCM - hardly Malawi) was again questioned, in court, under a petition by MMD privatisation, some argue. supporters. Judge Chalendo Sakala of Ndola’s High Court declared The World Bank’s Country Director for Zambia, Phyllis Kaunda to be stateless and ordered the Citizenship Board to quash Pomerantz, has tirelessly sought to impress donors with Zambia’s his nationality. On appeal to the Supreme Court, a stay of execution recent record, even inviting them to a Bank-funded workshop in was granted. That same day, as it entered his property, Kaunda’s February in Lusaka. However, privatisation of the mines has been vehicle was fired on with an assault rifle. Kaunda is also believed badly mishandled and the Chairperson of the negotiating team, to owe $645,525 to his lawyers for fees to handle cases brought Francis Kaunda, is partly to blame (AC Vol 40 No 6, no relation against him since 1996; he has recently made fund-raising visits to to Kenneth). Pomerantz prefers talking about economics than Britain and South Africa. about governance and human rights problems, saying human rights ● United Party for National Development (UPND: this was are not the Bank’s thing. Ironically, the Lusaka government now formally launched in December and is led by Anderson Mazoka, finds governance and human rights easier to discuss than the formerly head of Anglo American’s Central Africa Office and an economic crisis it has created. MMD official; lawyer John Mulwila is Vice-President. Mazoka has attracted some impressive colleagues. They include Sakwiba Human rights v. economics Sikota, a human rights lawyer; Standwell Mapara, former National The head of Zambia’s delegation to Paris, Finance Minister Edith Party administrative secretary, as national Chairperson; Emmanuel Nawakwi, has been showing donors a 113-page report on Kasanga, economist; Sipula Kabanje, former chief of the Law ‘Governance’. Africa Confidential has a copy of this report, which Development Commission; Love Mutesa, ex-High Commissioner promises reform of the police and the media, as well as the removal to London; Azwell Banda, ex-Zambia Democratic Congress of ‘certain derogations and restrictions that impede the full Secretary General (now in South Africa); Gerald Mutti, ex- enjoyment of human rights and freedoms.’ This could perhaps Zamcom head; Alina Nyikosa, former UNIP Central Committee mean removing the citizenship clause which bars ex-President member. Kenneth Kaunda, leader of the opposition United National The Zambia Democratic Party recently merged with the UPND Independence Party, from standing again as President. It could but Mazoka has ruled out wider mergers. The UPND attracts possibly also mean lifting the ban on a third presidential term for educated urban Zambians, and must widen its appeal to the rural President . areas and the deprived compounds of Lusaka and the . The campaign for the presidential election of 2001 is already Its potential is shown by the increasing harassment and bureaucratic under way. Chiluba’s Movement for Multi-party Democracy is obstacles hurled at it by government officials. Mazoka has just

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toured the United States and Britain to raise awareness of his foreign governments are under pressure to sack or terminate the party. contracts of Reform-supporters. ● Zambia Alliance for Progress (ZAP) is a merger, announced on At the heart of this row is speculation about Rawlings’ future 3 May, of six opposition parties and a pressure group: role: is he really going to retire from politics in December 2000, Akashambatwa Mbikusita Lewanika’s Agenda for Zambia; the after almost two decades of power, or will he maintain a grip Labour Party; self-exiled Rodger Chongwe’s Liberal Progressive through his control of the NDC? Political sources say the succession Front; ’s LIMA Party; Nevers Mumba’s National issue isn’t discussed within Rawlings’ earshot and that his inner Citizens’ Coalition; Dean Mung’omba’s Zambia Democratic coterie is determined to ensure he remains the de facto ruler. This Congress; Sylvia Masebo’s National Pressure Group. private debate worries not only Ghanaians but also foreign donors, None of the six parties has yet dissolved and ZAP is having led by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, which problems getting formally registered. Agenda for Zambia and the since 1983 have been promoting radical structural economic ZDC each have two seats in parliament, which they would forfeit reforms. by dissolving themselves. A National Policy Council in June will From being paraded as the donors’ star example of reform in the draw up ZAP’s programme of action, then a general conference 1980s, Ghana’s economic record started slipping badly after a will elect leaders, including a presidential candidate. The interim heavy bout of pre-election spending in 1992. This caused many chairman, Mung’omba, is debilitated by his 14 months on remand people to question both the substance and style of World Bank and and by the torture which followed a coup attempt (in which he was IMF-backed reforms in Africa. Even more serious has been the re- not involved) in October 1997. Mumba has been found to be in emergence of grand corruption in government and business ranks: arrears of tax of $1.5 mn. by the Zambia Revenue Authority. it was his ‘holy war’ against graft that won Rawlings street Sylvia Masebo of the National Pressure Group, who left the MMD credibility after he stormed to power on the back of a military coup in December, is an impressive campaigner with a following among on 31 December 1981. Despite his still passionate diatribes against women and may turn ZAP into a force to be reckoned with. Already corruption, Reform-activists say only low-level offenders are her supporters have been harassed by police and her husband’s punished while big-time swindlers go free. house raided. She expects more such treatment. The ruling MMD now faces three serious opposition parties, an Losing touch economy in crisis and confusion over its own leadership. The The Reform Movement’s leaders helped to forge the NDC in the economic crisis has been made considerably worse by the fire in early 1990s out of the old Provisional National Defence Council, mid-month at the Italian-run Indeni oil refinery at Ndola. which had been the vehicle for Rawlings’ idiosyncratic military Speculation abounds that set the fire because it claims rule since 1981. Having helped set up the NDC, they generally Lusaka supplies oil, among other things, to the União Nacional rejected offers of party or government jobs in favour of running para a Independência Total de Angola: Western intelligence had their own private businesses. already learned of such a plan and sternly warned Luanda off (AC Last July, they called publicly for reform of the ruling party (AC Vol 40 No 5). Such arson would be counter-productive: the plant Vol 39 No 23), claiming that its leadership had lost touch with also supplies Angolan and Zimbabwean troops fighting in Congo- ordinary people. They argued that corruption and patronage had Kinshasa. Some oil sources put the fire down to poor maintenance caused a crisis of morale in the NDC, some of whose leaders would and say Indeni will be out of action for months. not tolerate dissent or democratic debate, and were vindictive Chiluba had hoped that his shuttle diplomacy on Congo-K would towards those who challenged them. The government’s first win him friends; the USA is among those to have invested in his response was to offer individual members of the Reform Movement mediation efforts but few Zambians are impressed. Indeed, in his lucrative jobs and positions. There were no takers. The NDC then second term, Chiluba has won few friends at home or abroad. A run tried to discredit the Movement’s leading supporters. for a third term would be a gift to the opposition. The key issue on which the Reform-activists drew support was the future of the NDC’s leadership and its flagbearer in the 2000 elections. Speculation about the presidential ambitions of GHANA Rawlings’s wife, Nana Konadu Agyeman Rawlings, had reached fever pitch just weeks before the April 1998 visit of United States President Bill Clinton to Ghana. The President's wife, Hilary Reforming the reformers Rodham Clinton, makes no secret of her own political aims, which start with a senatorship in New York. And her husband, we Schisms are growing in the ruling NDC - hear, thinks highly of Jerry Rawlings and his help in West African much to the delight of the opposition matters. Some 18 months before next year’s elections, President Jerry Just before the Clinton visit, without consulting either his party John Rawlings’ ruling National Democratic Congress is frenetically or his inner circle, Rawlings had announced that his Vice-President, purging party ranks and has launched a full-frontal assault on a John Evans Atta-Mills, was his chosen successor, and would group of dissident NDC politicians known as the Reform Movement. contest the next election as NDC presidential candidate. This was For now, Rawlings-loyalists see NDC dissidents as a much greater meant partly to reassure foreign donors, worried about the economic threat to their election chances than the rival New Patriotic Party, consequences of a third Rawlings term. under the leadership of Kumasi lawyer John Kuffour. NDC activists expected the new party leader to be elected at the As this campaign heats up, there have been plenty of casualties, NDC’s national delegates’ congress due in mid-1998 but instead both political and economic. Reform-supporters have been sacked the leadership hijacked this decision. For the Reform Movement, from civil service jobs and entrepreneurs who back them are being this was the last straw. It published an open letter pointing out that, pressured by Rawlings-loyalists. Private employers and even of the 20,000 NDC branches said to exist, only two were functioning

4 28 May 1999 Africa Confidential Vol 40 No 11 and that party democracy was dead. The public fuss made no job as NDC Propaganda Secretary. He had been seconded to the difference. The party constitution in effect gives the executive a NDC by Ghacem, a Norwegian-Ghanaian cement manufacturer built-in majority at national congresses. which the government accused of helping to finance the Reform Moreover in many constituencies, pre-election meetings went Movement. Shortly after he lost his party job, the government unannounced, so only those with invitations attended. Voting pressured the company and he lost his job there, too. (where it took place) was by acclamation. Where constituency The Ghanaian Palaver, a weekly controlled by the NDC, strongly meetings were properly constituted, there were arguments and in attacked Goosie Tanoh’s brother, Nathaniel Tanoh, formerly some cases violence when pro-Rawlings elements tried to force Ghana director of WorldSpace, the US-based satellite broadcasting through the leadership’s agenda. company of Ethiopian-Sudanese entrepreneur Noah Samara. At the December Congress, the NDC leadership amended the The Palaver suggested that Nat Tanoh had used WorldSpace party constitution to create the position of life chairman and money to finance Reform activities. Daily telephone calls from elevated Rawlings to it. That means that post-Rawlings, 'JJ' will be Ghanaian officials to Samara’s office insinuated that the company entitled to attend cabinet meetings and so preserve his influence. must sack Tanoh or risk losing its Ghana licence. Nathaniel and yet Prompted by the NDC executive, the Congress took away the another brother, Brazini Tanoh, no longer work for WorldSpace. constituencies’ right to choose the party leader and handed the job It seems that ahead of its extraordinary congress in 2000 to select to itself. Nomination of parliamentary candidates was already its presidential candidate, the NDC will pile the pressure on real or subject to the national executive’s approval. imagined enemies, and is able to enlist the support of some key As the Reform activists challenged these moves, the government’s officials in parastatals and the civil service. Members and supporters Bureau of National Investigations started harassing the dissidents. of the Reform Movement appear to be a special target, even more In some regions, the BNI detained Reform-supporters and than the main opposition party, Kuffour’s NPP. confiscated their literature. The NDC’s anger flared publicly after Such efforts to undercut the economic and political standing of businessman and Reform-spokesman Augustus Obuadum Reform-supporters extends even to embassies. In one case, we ‘Goosie’ Tanoh condemned the ruling party for corruption, hear, Accra officials have advised the British High Commission intolerance and vindictiveness. that they ‘have lost confidence’ in the ability of a company owned by Reform-supporters to fulfil a UK aid-financed contract for a Cassava chips are down local parastatal. Such pressures will further polarise local politics, In response, Rawlings-loyalists have accused Tanoh, who owns a probably leading to lengthy legal wrangles. The NPP could be the cassava-exporting company called Transport and Commodity net beneficiary of this internecine war for the soul of the NDC. Yet General, of commercial mismanagement. His associates say, it will take astute footwork by the NPP’s sometimes sluggish though, that the real problem in his company is government leadership and a determination not to underestimate Rawlings, interference. They say some officials from the office of First Lady who may yet try to reunite the NDC’s factions and persuade them Nana Rawlings tried to obtain details of Tanoh’s company accounts to turn their attention to their traditional foes in the NPP. and outstanding liabilities; officials from the Presidency (the Castle) are also said to be behind the State Insurance Corporation’s refusal to back a new financing facility for T&CG. TANZANIA More spectacular and more mysterious was the demolition by two lorry-loads of soldiers of a US$5 million brand new hotel near Accra’s Kotoka International Airport on 12 April. The Accra Divided republic Metropolitan Authority, under the leadership of Rawlings-loyalist The President is pleasing donors by tackling Sam Addokwei, claimed the hotel’s owner, Yusif Ibrahim, had corruption more resolutely not obtained the necessary land registry documents before building the hotel. NDC dissidents say that activists in Nana Rawlings’ 31 Once again, the two parts of the not-very-United Republic of December Women’s Movement predominate in the land registry Tanzania are heading in different political directions. In Zanzibar, and influence its operations. a Commonwealth mediator has forged an agreement (AC Vol 40 Ibrahim isn’t regarded as a dissident: he has a wide range of No 10) which may yet bring back ‘normal’ politics. On the friends and business contacts, many of whom are linked to or serve mainland, multi-party democracy is at risk because the opposition in the NDC government. He is, however, a close friend of Ashanti has fallen apart. Goldfields’ Chief Executive Sam Jonah, who is also unpopular in Confident of winning re-election next year, President Ben Mkapa the inner sanctum of the NDC. is tackling his country’s formidable reputation for corruption: Political sources say NDC leaders have never forgiven Jonah for Transparency International's corruption index recently rated it on turning down an offer to stand as Rawlings’ running mate in the a par with Nigeria. He has told ministers (two of whom have been 1996 elections. A recent strike at Ashanti’s Obuasi mine has also pressed into resignation) and officials to keep it clean and asked the been blamed on NDC activists wanting to embarrass Jonah and public to report wrongdoings. Some are starting to do so, although damage the company. Further, senior NDC cadres have accused the sick have a special problem: hospital patients are understandably Jonah and Ibrahim of backing the enstooling (enthronement) of the shy of reporting demands for illegal payments, for which some 85 new Asantehene, Osei Tutu II, rather than the NDC’s preferred doctors and other medical staff are currently under investigation. candidate as monarch. Mkapa says he has removed 2,000 ‘ghost’ civil servants from the Then there has been a series of sackings which some claim are payroll and retired the chief executives of five parastatal companies, politically motivated: Peter Kpordugbe, a popular figure associated while the Managing Director and four senior officials of Air with Reform, was dismissed as Director of the National Service Tanzania have been suspended. In the grossly corrupt Ministry of Secretariat of the Education Ministry. Wilfred Osei-Wusu lost his Works, 41 employees have been retired. More than 50 magistrates

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and court officials have lost their jobs, and so have senior army, Marando and his supporters. On 4 March, the weary Registrar of police, prison and immigration officials. Political Parties, George Liundi, refused to recognise the resolutions Eight hundred revenue collection officers have been dismissed from either meeting, restored both Mrema and Marando to their and the much improved revenue service has trapped some of its former posts and instructed them to convene a general conference. own officials. Parliament’s Public Accounts Committee, chaired On 24 April, Mrema tried to convene yet another meeting of his by the leader of the small opposition United Democratic Party, faction but the attempt collapsed after police arrested 180 of his John Cheyo, has advised Mkapa to dock the salaries of officials followers when they gathered at the offices of the United Nations with gaps in their accounts. The Prevention of Corruption Bureau Development Programme to ask for help. is to be strengthened and decentralised, and a special court for The next day, Mrema surprised everybody (including many of corruption cases is planned. his own members) by announcing that not only had he joined the The prospect of greater stability and transparency have small Tanzania Labour Party, he was its Chairman, with many of encouraged donors and foreign investors. In Paris on 4 May, 28 his followers as party officials; by switching parties he gave up donors promised US$1 million for Tanzania, adding that they both his seat in parliament and the subsidy paid to parties with would resume aid to Zanzibar when and if the new agreement is elected members. On a trip to Mbeya, he claimed 250 recruits for formally signed. This adds to the intense pressure on Zanzibari the TLP yet when the TLP’s existing leaders complained that the President Salmin Amour to sign. Zanzibaris await the arrival of Mrema group had not been properly elected, the Registrar obtained the Commonwealth Secretary General, Chief of a High Court injunction excluding Mrema and his followers from Nigeria, to witness the signature. This in turn has increased holding any office in their new party. pressure to end Zanzibar's long-running treason trial: the Mrema spends a lot of time in court. There is still no end to a Organisation of African Unity Secretary General, Salim Ahmed long-running case in which he is charged with falsely accusing Salim (himself a Zanzibari) is among those who have called for the senior personnel of having accepted 900 mn. Tanzanian shillings in case to be speeded up. bribes. Parliament’s Privileges and Immunities Committee had Yet despite the encouraging signs on transparency and been trying to censure him for earlier offences but gave up when, governance, the dead-weight of his own party - ex-President rather than apologising, he began lengthy explanations. MPs felt ’s old Revolutionary Party, the Chama Cha they were wasting their time. Mrema is still popular, though - Mapinduzi - still hangs over Mkapa. He says he can do nothing outside parliament and the courts. Pending by-elections, in his old about many corrupt big fish from former administrations, where seat at Temeke and at Ubungo (which includes the university and there is no hard evidence. Anyway, acting against them could many students), may show if his support is holding up. wrench the party apart. The CCM won the country’s first multi- Marando and the remaining NCCR MPs have little hope of re- party elections in 1995. Zanzibar’s indecisive result was widely election next year without Mrema’s populist appeal. The failure of regarded as a fix by the party’s old guard. However, the polls on coherent political opposition on the mainland deprives Mkapa’s the mainland, which brought Mkapa to power, were fairly well government of the stimulus it needs and voters of the choice they conducted, giving the opposition National Convention for are entitled to. Those who long for real political change show signs Reconstruction and Reform (NCCR-Mageuzi) 28 per cent of the of despair. Even when Tanzania was a one-party state, the old CCM presidential votes and 19 members of parliament. The NCCR offered constituencies a choice between candidates and the voters reckoned that it would gain more seats at by-elections, as voters could, and often did, dismiss unsatisfactory politicians. Now even got used to exercising choice. that safety valve is closed. The NCCR’s leader was Augustine Mrema, a former Deputy Prime Minister, popular orator and self-proclaimed anti-corruption fighter. His erratic behaviour and imperious manner offended his MALAWI fellow MPs, while his lack of education upset his academic supporters. The NCCR’s founder and Secretary General, Mabere Marando, tried but failed to bring him into line with party policies. Muluzi's democracy test Divided, the party has won only one of the 15 by-elections since 1995, several of which had seemed sure victories. Five years after the end of Banda's Recently, the party split has turned into farce, with each faction dicatorship, politics is at a crossroads clogging the overstrained judicial system with injunctions, petitions, Malawi’s second multi-party elections are set to be a close-run appeals and counter-appeals against the other. In a case in January, thing. President Bakili Muluzi’s ruling United Democratic Front a judge found in favour of Marando but awarded costs to neither is neck and neck with the opposition alliance of Gwanda side, saying that amid the chaos, they would merely represent a Chakuamba’s Malawi Congress Party (led for three decades by burden on innocent party members. Amid deadlock, Marando the late dictator Kamuzu Hastings Banda) and Chakufwa summoned delegates to a meeting of the National Executive Chihana’s Alliance for Democracy (Aford). Election arrangements Committee on 18 March, in - then, two days before have been marred by a combination of political manoeuvring and the meeting, with the Zanzibar delegates already in the capital, he organisational incompetence. The UDF government had tried to switched the venue to Zanzibar. There Mrema, who had not been push through voter registration and was reluctant to postpone the consulted about the move, accused Marando of planting ‘bogus vote, originally scheduled for 25 May, believing the longer the delegates’ and walked out. The meeting then suspended Mrema election campaign, the stronger its opponents might become. Then for ‘contravening the party’s constitution, indiscipline and not in-fighting in the Electoral Commission and lack of preparations cooperating with party officials’. made postponement inevitable. Mrema, back in Dar es Salaam, convened another lot of delegates Now the Electoral Commission must hold parliamentary and to a rival meeting two days later, which promptly suspended presidential elections by 15 June; the preferred date is 8 June. This 6 28 May 1999 Africa Confidential Vol 40 No 11 decision follows an emergency session of parliament on 21 May, constituencies to the existing 177, a move much criticised by the which agreed to the new timetable, much to the UDF’s frustration. opposition (as most of the new seats were in Muluzi’s southern In 1994, Muluzi won the presidency by getting 47 per cent of the heartland) and by the donors who were paying for the elections. vote. However, 1.1 million of his 1.4 mn. votes came from the After a month’s delay, a bargain was struck: 16 new seats were southern region; he did abysmally in the north (winning just 5 per created - eleven in the south and five in the centre. A more realistic cent of presidential votes there) where Aford predominated. These election date of July was suggested as voter registration had been statistics, rather than history and ideology, explain why so long delayed but the Electoral Commission insisted that it would Chakuamba’s MCP and Chihana’s Aford have formed an electoral meet the constitutional deadline of late May. An earlier election alliance with the two leaders as presidential and vice-presidential suited the UDF, because the statutory electoral funding for candidates respectively - and why Muluzi’s UDF has unsuccessfully opposition parties had been blocked by the government because the opposed the alliance as illegal. MCP and Aford had boycotted parliament two years ago. Chakuamba calculates that he and Muluzi, who both come from Voter registration opened late and the election date slipped from the south where about 50 per cent of Malawians live, should draw 17 to 25 May. Equipment and materials, such as forms and instant about equal support from the south and centre but that Chihana will cameras to photograph the estimated five mn. voters, were still again sweep the north, giving the MCP-Aford alliance a comfortable being brought into the country weeks after registration opened. victory. Chakuamba is popular and has done much to free the MCP Many registration centres were closed for lack of supplies. There from its baggage as Kamuzu Banda’s political vehicle. Many of were also reports of irregularities, of people being ferried into those politicians who cut their teeth under Banda’s dictatorship specific areas to register, of a multiplicity of party monitors at have carpet-crossed to become leading lights in the UDF registration centres pressurising voters and of party barons giving government. instructions to register children. On balance, the infringements Yet Chakuamba has not purged the MCP completely. Banda’s seemed to favour the UDF. More worrying still is the violence that right-hand man, John Tembo, is still party Vice-President and has broken out at several rallies, particularly in the north. former Health Minister and ex-party spokesman Heatherwick Electoral abuse and incompetence continued. A month before Ntaba still upholds the Banda period as one of comparative the scheduled election date, the computers and staff needed to economic - if not political - security. compile the voters’ rolls had still not arrived. Ballot papers were Many Malawians feel poorer since Muluzi took over in 1994. By eventually printed in early May, but some may be invalid because ending controls on local commodity prices, he has boosted farmers’ those candidates were nominated by people who weren’t registered incomes but pushed up food prices in the towns. Muluzi is popular voters at the time. Many centres never opened and the Electoral with smallholder farmers benefiting from higher farmgate prices Commission’s claim in early May that it had registered 63 per cent and even with town-dwellers who have started-up small businesses of the electorate was widely questioned. (which they had been prevented from doing under Banda). District Commissioners tried to get a few centres in each Muluzi’s reign has seen no great leap forward. Tobacco prices constituency to open in time for candidate nomination. Some 630 have stayed down and the government has failed to help to develop candidates (about 120 of them independents, mostly unhappy new forms of foreign exchange earnings. Despite the beauty of the casualties of party primaries) are competing for 193 National country, earnings from tourism are still desperately low. Mainly Assembly seats. Registration was so shoddy that losing parties informed by donor pressure, economic policy has been neither could challenge the validity of the results and perhaps provoke a imaginative nor particularly effective. After the reshuffling of constitutional crisis. respected former Finance Minister Aleke Banda, economic Hanjahanja retired as Chairman of the Electoral Commission management deteriorated badly and the government went on a and was replaced on 13 May by the well regarded Justice James spending spree last year. Kalaile. Less popular with the opposition was the departure of The UDF and the MCP-Aford alliance differ over both emphasis Chief Elections Officer Stuart Winga to London in early May and and substance; MCP-Aford projects itself as a national coalition his replacement by Roosevelt Gondwe, who is criticised as too bringing all three regions together. The two other presidential close to the UDF. Opposition parties also want to lift the UDF’s candidates - Kamlepo Kalua of the Malawi Democratic Party and iron grip on the state-owned Malawi Broadcasting Corporation. the former Secretary General of the Common Market for East and Southern Africa, Bingu wa Mutarika of the United Party - are making little impact on the campaign. The head of the government’s Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at 73 anti-corruption agency, Gilton Chiwaula, said in April that he was Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, England. investigating claims that Wa Mutarika had sought campaign funds Tel: +44 171-831 3511. Fax: +44 171-831 6778. from textile companies in return for political favours. Copyright reserved. Edited by Patrick Smith. Deputy: Gillian Lusk. Administration: Clare Tauben. Since Muluzi rubbished independent candidates in January, the small parties and non-party candidates may align with the MCP- Annual subscriptions, cheques payable to Africa Confidential in advance: Aford. Many independent candidates had been rejected by the UK: £250 Europe: £250 Africa: £233 US:$628 (including Airmail) UDF’s highly centralised nomination procedures, controlled by Rest of the World: £325 party supremos such as the Secretary General (and Minister of Students (with proof): £75 or US$124 Information) Sam Mpasu and Education Minister Brown All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept Mpinganjira. Mpasu and Mpinganjira have also tried to strong- American Express, Diner’s Club, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 805, Oxford OX4 arm the Electoral Commission. In mid-1998, a new Commission 1FH England. Tel: 44 1865 244083 and Fax: 44 1865 381381 was appointed under Justice William Hanjahanja after Muluzi Visit our web site at: http://www.Africa-Confidential.com had dissolved the relatively efficient Commission headed by Justice Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts,UK. Msosa. In January, Hanjahanja proposed adding 70 new ISSN 0044-6483

7 28 May 1999 Africa Confidential Vol 40 No 11

Britain has downgraded its military aid, has promoted the interests of a South African Pointers diverting staff and equipment to the Balkans company, Energy Africa, in both Angola and and trimming reconstruction funds (partly due Congo-Brazzaville - against the interests of to lack of counterpart financing from other France’s Elf-Aquitaine and its local point-men. SIERRA LEONE Western states). For several years, commercial rivals have In Freetown alone, over 5,000 houses were accused Fernandez, who claims friendship with destroyed in the RUF’s New Year offensive and former United States President George Bush, Forced to talk some 2,700 children are still missing. Field of being ‘too close’ to US intelligence. reports from Human Rights Watch show the Fernandez’s high-flying career started in Weaknesses on both sides may just offer a RUF campaign of murder, torture and abuse of as an associate of former chance of serious negotiations on power-sharing civilians, including the amputation of children's Tanzanian army Chief of Staff Ali Mahfoud, and amnesty (AC Vol 40 No 6) as talks between limbs, lips and ears, was continuing in Port who was close to and the President Ahmad Tejan Kabbah and Corporal Loko and Masiaka just days before the ceasefire Frelimo hierarchy. Fernandez was appointed as Foday Sankoh’s teams opened in Lomé on 25 signing. On 16 May, RUF forces killed six Mozambique’s Deputy Representative to the May. Yet 24 hours later, no face-to-face meeting Malian Ecomog soldiers and captured 17 others. United Nations in New York, a post he held had occurred. Kabbah is unpopular in Freetown, A main RUF demand was for United Nations until last year, when he became the Central unable to control his argumentative cabinet and monitors. On 21 May, two UN observers arrived African Republic’s UN representative. A self- vacillating wildly between its hawks and doves. in Freetown to assess the military and political confessed multi-millionaire, Fernandez Sankoh’s Revolutionary United Front is divided situation, and report to Secretary General Kofi maintains several residences, including a lavish over the talks: Commander Sam ‘Moskito’ Annan; another 16 UN military observers are villa in Rye, New York State, and a chateau in Bockarie refuses to attend and has sent fighters due in Freetown by the end of May, says the UN Pont Pointe, France. under his number two, Dennis ‘Superman’ Observer Mission in Sierra Leone. If they are to Fernandez’s international reputation grew Mingo, into battle against both the West African have a peace to observe, the UN may have to sharply after Machel introduced him to Angola’s peacekeepers (Ecomog) and the RUF’s former send diplomatic reinforcements for its President José Eduardo dos Santos, who hired allies led by Major Johnny Paul Koroma. beleaguered Special Envoy, Francis Okello, him as an economic advisor. Fernandez’s critics Kabbah offers to cut his term by eight months, the butt of a vicious media campaign accuse him of encouraging Dos Santos to allowing early elections in mid-2000: this would orchestrated by local politicians. undermine the autonomy of the state oil company give the RUF a year to establish a party. But Meanwhile on 21 May, host refused Sonangol along the lines of Nigeria’s National Sankoh has insisted on a four-year power- entry to Amnesty International Secretary Petroleum Corporation. Mahfoud moved to sharing deal with Kabbah’s Sierra Leone General Pierre Sané, who had been due to meet Angola with Fernandez and helps run a coffee People’s Party. From Freetown's ‘never President Gnassingbé Eyadéma. On 5 May, plantation there, in a diamond-producing area. surrender’ mood in the New Year siege, opinion the human rights organisation had published Fernandez remains close to Dos Santos and is swinging back towards a deal with the RUF. ‘Togo: Terror State’, detailing massive killings occasionally sounds out potential bidders for Kabbah’s hastily assembled ‘government army’, during the 1998 presidential election campaign. Sonangol acreage or crude oil cargoes. The row now some 5,000-strong, couldn’t hold back the over the Mandela smear is unlikely to damage RUF without Ecomog support. SOUTH AFRICA/NIGERIA Fernandez’s position in Luanda, where relations Money is central to these calculations. The between the government and Pretoria have government controls more territory than the cooled rapidly in recent months. RUF but rebels still predominate in the Kono diamond fields and the rich farmland in Fernandez letter Kailahun. Not only are coffee and cocoa grown Who was behind the crude attempt to smear ADB there but, we hear, large areas now host opium President Nelson Mandela by linking him to an poppies and coca plants: the crops go over the oil deal with Nigerian middle-man Chief border to Liberia for processing and export. Antonio Deinde Fernandez? Copies of letters It's Omar II The RUF controls at least two-thirds of the key referring to cheques totalling US$300,000 made With a 35 per cent capital increase for the Eastern Province, with Ecomog and Sierra out by Fernandez to Mandela personally were African Development Bank and a replenishment Leonean forces making inroads in the other sent to the Daily Express, Daily Telegraph and for its soft-loan fund under his belt, ADB third. Kabbah’s government is cash-strapped: other British newspapers. The smear plot fell President Omar Kabbaj launched his re- deprived of most diamond revenue, it depends flat when Mandela’s lawyer, Ismail Ayob, election campaign at the 25-27 May annual on local tax and foreign aid. Near bankruptcy showed he had written to Fernandez’s London meeting in Cairo in characteristically has helped drive Kabbah to the table. lawyers, Simons Muirhead and Burton, returning understated style. The increase of Bank Units For talks to succeed, the ceasefire between the cheques and seeking clarification of the of Account 5.67 billion (US$7.65bn.) boosts Kabbah and Sankoh brokered by America’s letter. Five years ago, Fernandez had offered to capital to UA21.87 bn.; the $3 bn. African Reverend Jesse Jackson in Lomé on 17 May give the profits of a house sale to the Nelson Development Fund replenishment was must hold. But hours after it began, each side Mandela Children’s Fund but the money had accomplished in a record time of under a year. accused the other of violations. RUF spokesman never materialised. Kabbaj is unlikely to get an entirely clear run Omrie Golley accused Ecomog of attacking The lawyers then issued a cheque for the sum in the election at next year’s meeting in Abidjan RUF forces at Magba, some 150 kilometres made payable to the Children’s Fund. Mandela but he'll be hard to beat. Neither of his mooted north-east of Freetown, and further east at the says he never discussed any oil supply deal with rivals, Nigeria’s Seyid Abdullahi (OPEC Fund Tongo-Moyamba junction. Ecomog’s Fernandez or his company, Petro Inett. ‘Do you Executive Director) or Zimbabwe’s Callisto Lieutenant Colonel Chris Olukulade said his seriously believe a man in his 81st year who has Madavo (World Bank Vice-President, Africa) men had come under fire at Magburaka on the not sold anything in his life would sell oil for seem to want to stand. Rumblings however main Freetown-Kenema road. the Nigerians?’ Ayob asked journalists. continue about a Nigeria-sponsored candidate Kabbah and Sankoh seem to have been Both Fernandez and his lawyers insist they (and one from Southern Africa, which is under- bounced into the ceasefire by Jackson’s ‘trick had nothing to do with the leaking of these represented in terms of ADB loans). or treat’ tactic, one observer noted. Sierra letters to the UK press. However Fernandez, This doesn’t worry Kabbaj’s team. After Leone has been pushed further to the margin of who has a long track record of unconventional Nigerian President-elect ’s international concern by Kosovo: we hear business deals in Africa, has made powerful 3 May visit to the ADB, they expect Nigeria to enemies who might want to embarrass him. He fall into line, as Egypt now seems to be doing. 8

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