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RAINFALL, FOOD SECURITY AND HUMAN MOBILITY CASE STUDY: THAILAND UNU-EHS Institute for Environment PANOMSAK PROMBUROM AND PATRICK SAKDAPOLRAK and Human Security No. 7 | November 2012 UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND HUMAN SECURITY (UNU-EHS) REPORT No. 7 November 2012 Report No. 7 | November 2012 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Thailand _ 3 _ 4 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Thailand Report No. 7 | November 2012 ˝Where the Rain Falls˝ Project Case study: Thailand Results from Thung Hua Chang District, Northern Thailand Authors: Panomsak Promburom and Patrick Sakdapolrak Report No. 7 | November 2012 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Thailand _ 5 Acknowledgements We would like to start by thanking everybody in Don-Moon, We would also like to thank Charles Ehrhart (CARE) for his work Sandonhom, Maebon-Tai and Huai-Ping for their participation in in the preparatory and early phases of this project and Delphine the household survey and participatory research group discus- Pinault (CARE) for her inputs and comments on the research sions. We learned a lot from these communities and appreciated protocol for this project. We have also benefited from the very their great cooperation. fruitful exchange of ideas with other researchers in this project, particularly Christina Rademacher-Schulz, Benjamin Etzold and We offer our sincerest gratitude to Koko Warner, Scientific Andrea Milan. We would like to extend our thanks to the follow- Director, and Tamer Afifi, Research Director of the project, both ing colleagues at UNU-EHS: Matthew Mullins for administrative from the United Nations University Institute for Environment support, Magesh Nagarajan for his guidance on data and statisti- and Human Security (UNU-EHS), as well as Kevin Henry, Project cal analysis and Thérèse Rosenfeld for support in the preparation Coordinator for CARE, who have supported us throughout the of fieldwork. The analysis benefited from very valuable reviews of research process. We also want to thank Hans-Georg Bohle from the literature prepared by Verena Rossow, Stephanie Andrei, Sabu the Department of Geography, University of Bonn who has Chittilappilly, Sophie Zielcke and Davide Marino. allocated human resources to support the project. We are grateful to the UNU-EHS communications team, namely Prathanthip Kramol, Pimpimon Kaewmanee, Pratchawin Somsak, Alice Fišer, Andrea Wendeler and Katharina Brach for their Ratana Kaewsen, Kanyarat Usasarn, Phalakorn Paomai took part valuable work in publishing the case study reports. to this case study and contributed greatly on data collection and data entry through their very valuable skills and great dedication. Also, we appreciate the generous support of AXA Group and the We all benefited from the efficiency of logistical support and John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, without which it cooperation in the organization of the case study from Direk would not have been possible to implement the “Where the Rain Khruajinli, Taschai Akarawongwiriya, Nartrapee Wongseang- Falls” project. chundr, Chanyut Tepa and Promboon Panitchapakdi from Raks Thai Foundation. Last but not least, we would like to thank Ms. Kimberly Bennett (CARE “Where the Rain Falls” communications coordinator) for We are grateful to all our CARE colleagues who contributed to editing this report. the progress of this report through very valuable comments and inputs, in particular Aurélie Ceinos and Kimberly Bennett from CARE France, and Bruce Ravesloot from CARE PECCN. We would also like to thank Jonathan Rigg (Durham University), Graeme Hugo (University of Adelaide), Sureeporn Punpuing (Mahidol University) and Vitoon Panyakul (Earth Net Foundation) for their peer review. _ 6 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Thailand Report No. 7 | November 2012 Table of contents Figures 8 Tables 9 Abbreviations and acronyms 10 Executive summary 11 Section 1: Introduction 13 Section 2: Literature review 16 2.1 Environmental outline – geographic setting and climate change 16 2.1.1 Climate change 16 2.2 Economic outline – economic growth, poverty and food security 18 2.3 Migration pattern and dynamics 20 Section 3: Methodology 24 3.1 Objectives 24 3.2 Research methodology 24 3.2.1 Participatory Research Approach 27 3.2.2 Household survey 27 3.2.3 Expert interviews 28 3.2.4 Criteria for site selection 28 3.3 Research limitations and challenges 28 Section 4: Introduction to the case study area 31 Section 5: Rainfall variability 35 5.1 Rainfall pattern in Lamphun province – meteorological data 35 5.2 Perception of rainfall-related events and trends 36 5.3 Rising temperatures – meteorological evidence and people’s perceptions 39 Section 6: Livelihood and food security 41 6.1 Sources of livelihood 41 6.1.1 On-farm diversification 46 6.1.2 Off-farm livelihood activities 49 6.2 Food security 51 Report No. 7 | November 2012 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Thailand _ 7 Section 7: Migration and human mobility patterns 55 7.1 Internal migration 57 7.2 International migration 59 Section 8: Linking rainfall variability, food security and migration 63 Section 9: Summary and conclusion 73 Section 10: Reflections for policymakers 75 Annex I: Participatory Research Approach participants, sessions and villages 76 Annex II: Lamphun Province − key indicators of the population and households, population and housing census 1990 and 2000 78 Annex III: National research team composition 79 Annex IV 80 References 83 Figures Figure 1: Rainy season by natural breaks and location of research sites 17 Figure 2: Gross domestic product in agricultural and industrial sector between 1960 and 1998 19 Figure 3: Map of food insecurity and vulnerability 20 Figure 4: International migration from Thailand by province of origin, 2010 23 Figure 5: Participatory Research Approach session in Don-Moon 25 Figure 6 Team members conducting survey 26 Figure 7: Four selected villages in Ban Puang sub-district 31 Figure 8: The average monthly rainfall in Lamphun 35 Figure 9: Total annual rainfall in lamphun (1981−2011) 35 Figure 10: Average monthly temperature of lamphun (1981−2011) 39 Figure 11: Historical timeline of Huai Ping 43 Figure 12: Silk weaving 50 Figure 13: Livelihood risks and impact diagram in don-moon 65 Figure 14: Impact of heavy rainfall in the study area 67 _ 8 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Thailand Report No. 7 | November 2012 Tables Table 1: Net gain and loss of population through migration in thousand 21 Table 2: Number of households in the selected four villages 28 Table 3: Key characteristics of surveyed households 33 Table 4: Past climate events occurred in the study area 36 Table 5: Perception of climatic changes over the last 10−20 years (1991−2011) 37 Table 6: Perception of rainfall-related changes over the last 10−20 years 37 Table 7: Perception changes with regard to flood events over the last 10−20 years 37 Table 8: Timeline of remarkable events in the study area 44 Table 9: Household land ownership in the four study villages 46 Table 10: Changing production of crops 47 Table 11: Changing sources of income 49 Table 12: Percentage of food bought from the market 52 Table 13: Coping strategies applied by households that do not have enough food or money to buy food during the last seven days 52 Table 14: Coping strategies in times of problems with regard to food security during the last 5–10 years 53 Table 15: Timeline related to migration and off-farm employment 56 Table 16: Characteristics of people with migration experience 57 Table 17: Characteristics of the current internal migrants 57 Table 18: Affected by environmental hazards during the last 12 months 64 Table 19: Coping with environmental hazards during the last 12 months 64 Table 20: Rainfall-related trends and events (past 10–20 years) and their impact on agriculture and livelihoods 66 Table 21: Reasons to migrate 68 Report No. 7 | November 2012 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Thailand _ 9 Abbreviations and acronyms ADB Asian Development Bank FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FIVIMS Food Security and Vulnerability Mapping System GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas GNI Gross National Income IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change NGO Non-governmental Organization NICs Newly Industrialized Countries NIE Northern Industrial Estate, also: Nikhom PRA Participatory Research Approach TAO Tambon Administrative Organization UNU United Nations University UNU-EHS United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security _ 10 Where the Rain Falls Project − Case Study: Thailand Report No. 7 | November 2012 Executive summary The project “Where the Rain Falls: Climate Change, Hunger and Æ Rainfall-related events have a negative impact on the Human Mobility” (short “Rainfalls”) seeks to establish an in- livelihood security of the affected households. As almost depth understanding of the relationship between climatic events all households are engaged in agriculture, rainfall-related and trends – particularly rainfall –, livelihoods and food security events had negative impacts on their production. The of an affected vulnerable population and the role of human interviewed farmers reported decreases in quantity and mobility as a coping and adaptation strategy. The Thailand case quality of agricultural products such as maize. Rainfall- study conducted in the Northern Province of Lamphun is one of related events create financial burden on the affected eight case studies carried out in Africa (Ghana, Tanzania), Asia households, for example heavy rain washes fertilizer input (Bangladesh, India and Viet Nam) and Latin America (Guatemala, away; dry spells necessitate an additional seeding of maize. Peru). Æ Rainfall-related events also cause damage to community infrastructure. Damaged roads and water reservoirs due to The empirical research was carried out in four villages, using heavy rainfall were reported by the community members. qualitative (Participatory Research Approach (PRA), expert inter- Æ The majority of households is food secure.

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