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Nomura Global Real Estate Forum – Tokyo 4 September 2009 UK property, the listed property sector and Land Securities Francis Salway Martin Greenslade Chief Executive Finance Director Agenda Structure of the UK direct property market Trends in the UK direct property market UK listed property sector Land Securities Questions & answers Page 2 UK property market - I Physical, legal and regulatory environment Physical supply constraints, planning constraints and lease contracts Page 3 Source: Bank ofEngland. Low interestrates UK propertymarket –II on gilt yields) (estimated 40-100 bpsimpact Additional impact of‘quantitative easing’ interest rate, end year, % 12 16 20 0 4 8 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Page 4 UK property market – III Currency 300 2.2 Pound to Yen 280 Pound to Euro 2 260 Pound to Dollar 240 1.8 220 200 1.6 180 Pound to Yen Pound to 1.4 160 140 and Euro Pound to Dollar 1.2 120 100 1 12/31/1999 12/31/2000 12/31/2001 12/31/2002 12/31/2003 12/31/2004 12/31/2005 12/31/2006 12/31/2007 12/31/2008 Source: Oanda.com Impact of currency on cross-border investment into the UK Page 5 UK property market - IV Impact of London as a global financial centre Financial services sector drives international competitiveness of UK Page 6 Recent trends in listed and direct real estate markets in the UK Listed market FTSE Real Estate • 80.9% off peak (Jan 2007) to low point (March 2009) Index • 64.7% off peak to now • 84.9% up from low point to now Direct market Capital values • 44% off peak (June 2007) Rental values • 8% off peak (April 2008) Source: IPD Listed sector ‘forward looking’ of capital values…capital values ‘forward looking’ of rental values Page 7 Issues underlying downturn in UK direct commercial property markets 1. Investment property pricing bubble 2. Economic downturn 3. Lack of availability of credit Page 8 Issues underlying downturn in UK direct commercial property markets 1. Investment property pricing bubble (25)% 2. Economic downturn (20) – (25)% 3. Lack of availability of credit (5) – (10)% (43) – (50)% How much will be recovered? Page 9 Source: IPD,ONS Source: Real growthinrentalvalues UK realestatemarket trends–I No bubble in rents – except London West End office market percent -40 -30 -20 -10 10 20 30 0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 London office ERV growth - real All retail ERV growth - real real - growth ERV property All 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 H1 2009 Page 10 Source: PMA London officevacancyrates UK realestatemarket trends–II London office vacancy rates curr percent 10 15 20 25 0 5 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 ently below levels in 1991 and 2003 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 West End West City 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Page 11 Source: IPD Source: Retail marketinvestment portfoliovoids UK realestatemarket trends–III Retail void levels higher than inearly 1990s percent 10 0 2 4 6 8 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Page 12 Source: BRC Retail salesgrowth UK realestatemarket trends–IV Retail sales more resilient than expected in downturn percent 12 -3 0 3 6 9 Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Total Like-for-like Mar-08 Mar-09 Page 13 Source: IPD Source: Rental andcapitalvalues UK realestatemarket trends–V Divergence between rental value and capital value trends from 2002 percent -30 -20 -10 10 20 30 0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Capital growth Capital growth ERV 2006 2007 2008 H1 2009 Page 14 UK real estate market trends – VI Yield gap 12 12 Gap Gap 10 year gilt yield 5 year swap rate 10 10 Equivalent yield Initial yield 8 8 6 6 percent percent 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 Jun-94 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-94 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Source: IPD Gilts June 2009 15 year average Swaps June 2009 15 year average Yield gap 5.29% 2.25% Yield gap 4.27% 0.80% Significant positive yield gap Page 15 UK real estate market trends – VII Comparison to early 1990s Early 1990s Current cycle (to date) All property Capital values -27.1 -44.2 Rental values -21.7 -8.0 Retail Capital values -19.0 -45.7 Rental values -7.0 -5.7 Void rate 6.0 7.1 London offices Capital values -51.2 -47.0 Rental values -56.9 -24.4 Vacancy rate 20.9 9.6 Source: IPD, PMA Current cycle compared to early 1990s: offices stronger, retail weaker Page 16 UK listed real estate sector has doubled in value since 9 March to £21bn (£5bn fresh equity) Page 17 Land Securities – key facts Founded 1944 Largest listed real estate company in UK (by market capitalisation) £4.7bn market capitalisation £9.4bn portfolio Focus on London offices and retail Piccadilly Lights, W1 A leading multi-focus company Page 18 Land Securities – portfolio composition By capital value - £9.4bn 8.6% 11.9% 42.1% 27.5% 9.9% London offices London retail Shopping centres Retail warehouses Other Focus on London office and retail Page 19 Land Securities – key assets London Portfolio Piccadilly Circus Cardinal Place Lights New Street Square Queen Anne’s Gate One New Change 44% of London office portfolio in the West End Page 20 Land Securities – key assets Retail Portfolio Team Valley, Newcastle Buchanan Galleries, Glasgow White Rose, Leeds Bullring, Birmingham Westwood Cross, Thanet St David’s 2, Cardiff N1, Islington, London Cabot Circus, Bristol 26 shopping centres and 24 retail warehouse parks Page 21 Land Securities – property yields(1) Range of Gross Income Equivalent equivalent Yield(2) Yield(3) yields(4) % % % Shopping centres and shops 9.0 8.0 6.9-10.3 Retail warehouses and foodstores 8.3 7.9 6.9-10.7 London retail 5.6 5.8 5.0 - 7.7 London office 8.1 7.3 6.3-10.5 Total portfolio 8.1 7.5 5.0-10.7 (1) Total portfolio excluding only the development programme and proposed developments (2) Gross income yield topped up for unexpired rent free periods (but not for future stepped rental increases) (3) Net nominal equivalent yield calculated on the gross outlays for a purchase of a property (valuation plus purchaser’s costs) (4) Excludes properties under £10m Yields at historically high levels Page 22 Land Securities – balance sheet management Approximately £4.0bn of disposals since April 2007 Rights issue to raise £755.7m (net) in March 2009 Devonshire House, W1 Group LTV at 31 March 2007 of Sold in 2007 at 3.9% yield 38.0% Group LTV at 31 March 2009 of 52.0% Whitefriars, Canterbury Sold in 2007 at 4.1% yield 27% reduction in net debt in 2008/9 financial year Page 23 Land Securities – liquidity management £4.4bn adjusted net debt with average Expected debt maturities (nominal) duration of 8.7 years £m 2500 Cash holdings of £2.2bn 2000 (as at 31 July 2009) 1500 Weighted average cost of gross 1000 debt of 4.4% 500 0 No event of financial default under 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 5-10 10-15 15+ principal debt structure until 100% LTV year ending March years or 1.0x ICR Security Group Non-restricted group Joint ventures Well positioned on debt maturities and loan covenants Page 24 London offices Adding value through development London office development 1800 completions 1600 1400 1200 1000 Park House, W1 800 600 Square feet (‘000s) 38% pre-let 400 200 0 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14+ - year to 31 March - Selborne House, SW1 A good track record on timing of London office developments Page 25 Retail Adding value through asset management and tenant mix Turnover rent per square foot £60 £50 £40 £30 £20 £10 £- 2002/3 2003/4 2004/5 2005/6 2006/7 2007/8 2008/9 Outgoing Incoming Gunwharf Quays, Portsmouth Understanding retailer performance to optimise shopping centre values Page 26 Land Securities - conclusion 1st stage of Capital values increase Attractive level of gearing recovery Occupier demand Attractive development opportunities 2nd stage of improves / rental values – especially in London West End recovery increase office market Through the cycle Impact of cost base Cost advantage from scale – especially low cost of debt Land Securities – well placed for recovery phase of market Page 27 Nomura Global Real Estate Forum – Tokyo 4 September 2009 .
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