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Miami's Sunny Outlook Miami’s Sunny Outlook Multifamily Report Fall 2019 Per-Unit Prices Investment Activity Job Growth Outpaces Continue to Climb Remains High US Average MIAMI MULTIFAMILY Market Analysis Stock Additions Soften Rent Growth Fall 2019 Backed by above-trend job gains and a friendly business climate, Miami’s Contacts multifamily market remains healthy, despite accelerating development since Paul Fiorilla 2015. The occupancy rate in stabilized properties saw a slight drop, but Director of Research remained among the highest in Florida, at 95.1% as of September. [email protected] Metro Miami gained 61,600 jobs in the 12 months ending in July, for a (800) 866-1124 x5764 2.2% uptick. Education and health services accounted for 20,500 positions, Jack Kern followed by professional and business services (16,600 jobs). Due to high Director of Research and Publications demand, office construction is on an upswing in the metro. OKO Group’s [email protected] 57-story tower will be the first major office building in the city’s urban (800) 866-1124 x2444 core in a decade. The $5 billion American Dream Mall and the $5 billion overhaul of the Sunshine State’s airports over the next 15 years are among Author the largest projects underway. The Florida Department of Transportation Laura Calugar is also moving forward with its $802 million redesign of three major Miami Senior Associate Editor thoroughfares, while a 20-mile bus rapid transit system connecting the Dadeland South Metrorail station to Florida City is also in the works. Both transactions and development dropped a gear in the first three quarters of the year. Nonetheless, increased interest is coming from investors redirecting capital from states adopting rent-control laws. We expect the average South Florida rent per unit to rise moderately going into 2020. Recent Miami Transactions The Avant at Pembroke Pines Cortland Boca Raton City: Pembroke Pines, Fla. City: Boca Raton, Fla. Buyer: NexPoint Residential Trust Buyer: Cortland Purchase Price: $322 MM Purchase Price: $121 MM Price per Unit: $211,842 Price per Unit: $314,674 Avalon Bonterra Bell Lighthouse Point City: Hialeah, Fla. City: Pompano Beach, Fla. Buyer: AvalonBay Communities Buyer: Bell Partners Purchase Price: $90 MM Purchase Price: $59 MM Price per Unit: $286,624 Price per Unit: $234,940 On the cover: Photo by espiegle/iStockphoto.com 2 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000$220,000 $140,000$200,000 $120,000 $180,000 $100,000 $160,000 $80,000 $140,000 1 2 3 5 6 9 1 1 1 1 01 01 017 $120,000 20 20 2 2014 20 2 2 2018 20 $100,000 $80,000 Miami National 1 2 3 5 6 9 1 1 1 1 01 01 017 20 20 2 2014 20 2 2 2018 20 1 3 4 7 8 1 1 1 01 016 01 20 2012 2 20 2015 2 2 20 2019 Miami National 1 3 4 7 8 1 1 1 01 016 01 20 2012 2 20 2015 2 2 20 2019 2.6% 2.4% 2.6%2.2% 2.4%2.0% 2.2%1.8% 2.0%1.6% 1.8%1.4% 1.6%1.2% 1.4%1.0% 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 1.2% -1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 n t n a Jul c a pr- Jul 1.0% J Apr- O J A 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 n Miami Nationalt n a c a pr- J Apr- Jul O J A Jul Miami National 5.0% 5.0%4.0% 4.0%3.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD 0.0% National Miami 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD National Miami 29,270 Units 44,821 Units 29,270 Units 44,821 Units 114,665 Units Rent Trends 114,665 Units Miami rents were up 2.2% year-over-year through September, 100 basis points below the U.S. average. Due to strong supply, rent growth has moderated across all major Florida metros, including Orlando Planned Prospective Under Construction (down to 2.4% from 6.4% in September 2018) and Tampa (down to 2.4% from 4.3% a year ago). Meanwhile, the $1,694 average Miami rent remained well above the $1,471 national figure. Planned Prospective Under Construction Gains$3,500 were led by the working-class Renter-by-Necessity segment, with the average rate advancing140 3.2%,$3,000 to $1,352. Demand for workforce housing continues to rise, widening the gap between the120 two segments.$3,500 Additionally, the significant amount of new high-end supply is limiting rent growth at140 the $2,500 100 upper end of the quality spectrum. Lifestyle rents only rose 1.9%, to $1,935. $3,000 120 $2,000 80 Submarkets$2,500 across Fort Lauderdale and Miami led growth, with waterfront areas among the most100 $1,500 60 expensive:$2,000 In Fort Lauderdale–East, rates went up 1.4% to $2,323, while Brickell rents rose 3.1%80 to $2,307.$1,000 Despite a 5.5% drop, Coconut Grove ($2,305) continues to command some of the highest40 rates. $1,500 60 $500 20 Miami’s$1,000 occupancy rate in stabilized properties remained among the highest across the state, 40despite $0 0 a drop of 10 basis points year-over-year, to 95.1% as of September. Although the construction boom $500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20 lingers, we expect steady fundamentals to keep sustaining a moderate rent growth going into 2020. $0 Volume in Millions Number of Properties 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Miami vs. National Rent Growth (Sequential 3 Month, Year-Over-Year) Volume in Millions Number of Properties 3.5% 3.0% 3.5%2.5% 3.0%2.0% 2.5%1.5% 2.0%1.0% 1.5%0.5% 1.0%0.0% 0.5% 0.0% Miami National Source: YardiMatrix Miami National 5.0% Miami Rent Growth by Asset Class (Sequential 3 Month, Year-Over-Year) 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity Source: YardiMatrix Miami Multifamily | Fall 2019 3 Economic Snapshot Metro Miami gained 61,600 jobs in the 12 months ending in July, marking a 2.2% expansion and surpassing the 1.7% U.S. rate. All employment sectors recorded gains, with education and health services accounting for one-third of them, followed by professional and business services (16,600 jobs). Fueled by demand coming from office-using industries, the metro’s office development pipeline is showing no signs of deceleration, with roughly 3.3 million square feet of space underway as of late October. One of the largest projects in the works is 830 Brickell, a 57-story skyscraper built by an OKO Group joint venture and set to open in 2022. $220,000 $200,000 Last year, traffic data firm INRIX ranked Miami as the 10th most traffic-clogged city in the world. $180,000 Several massive infrastructure projects$160,000 are underway to address the metro’s notorious traffic $140,000 congestion issues. The Florida Department$120,000 of Transportation and the Miami-Dade Expressway Authority have partnered on an $802$100,000 million project that redesigns three highways feeding downtown $80,000 1 2 3 5 6 9 1 1 1 1 Miami, Miami Beach and the Civic Center area. Moreover,01 01 an017 interchange needed for the planned $5 20 20 2 2014 20 2 2 2018 20 billion American Dream Miami Mall is expected to begin construction shortly. In addition, Miami-Dade Miami National Transportation Planning Organization approved the county’s first bus rapid transit system—a $243 1 3 4 7 8 1 1 1 million project.01 016 01 20 2012 2 20 2015 2 2 20 2019 Miami vs. National Employment Growth (Year-Over-Year) 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 1 -1 n t n a c a pr- J Apr- Jul O J A Jul Miami National Sources: YardiMatrix, Bureau of Labor Statistics (not seasonally adjusted) 5.0% Miami Employment Growth by Sector (Year-Over-Year) 4.0% Current Employment Year Change Code3.0% Employment Sector (000) % Share Employment % 65 Education and Health Services 412 15.8% 20,500 5.2% 602.0%Professional and Business Services 461 17.7% 16,600 3.7% 70 Leisure and Hospitality 328 12.6% 7,100 2.2% 1.0% 40 Trade, Transportation and Utilities 607 23.2% 4,200 0.7% 800.0%Other Services 127 4.9% 3,700 3.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YTD 15 Mining, Logging and Construction 55 2.1% 3,000 5.7% 30 Manufacturing National 92 Miami 3.5% 2,800 3.1% 55 Financial Activities 187 7.2% 2,200 1.2% 90 Government 291 11.1% 1,400 0.5% 50 Information 51 2.0% 100 0.2% Sources: YardiMatrix, Bureau of Labor Statistics 29,270 Units 44,821 Units Miami Multifamily | Fall 2019 4 114,665 Units Planned Prospective Under Construction $3,500 140 $3,000 120 $2,500 100 $2,000 80 $1,500 60 $1,000 40 $500 20 $0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Volume in Millions Number of Properties 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Miami National 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity Demographics Affordability Miami’s median home price climbed to $256,238 in 2018, up 52% from the 2009 trough.
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