Cardiff Council Cyngor Caerdydd Cabinet Meeting: 22
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CARDIFF COUNCIL CYNGOR CAERDYDD CABINET MEETING: 22 JULY 2013 SCHOOL ORGANISATION PLANNING: ADDITIONAL WELSH- MEDIUM PRIMARY SCHOOL PLACES TO SERVE THE CANTON, GRANGETOWN AND RIVERSIDE AREAS REPORT OF CORPORATE DIRECTOR OPERATIONS AGENDA ITEM: 2 PORTFOLIO: EDUCATION & LIFELONG LEARNING Reason for this Report 1. To make the Cabinet aware of the sufficiency issues presenting at primary school level in both Welsh-medium and English-medium in the Fitzalan catchment area. 2. To enable the Cabinet to consider the outcome of the consultation specific to providing additional Welsh-medium places for the Canton, Grangetown and Riverside areas in the context of above. 3. To enable the Cabinet to consider the recommendation to hold a public consultation on proposals which respond to the rising demand for Welsh- medium primary education in and around the Grangetown, area of Cardiff. Background 4. Cardiff has experienced a significant uplift in the birth rate since 2005, and consequently a 29% increase in the number of pupils admitted at entry to primary school from 3240 in September 2006 to 4176 in September 2012. 5. The Council is committed to providing a first class education for learners and improving standards and performance is a key part of all that it does. It continues to focus on the need to ensure viable and successful schools that offer good quality learning opportunities to raise standards of achievement as part of their broader role in community engagement. 6. The total numbers of pupils enrolled at Reception year within the Fitzalan High School catchment area increased by 32%, from 492 in January 2006 to 649 in January 2012. 7. Consultation in respect of providing additional Welsh-medium places to serve this area took place in Spring 2013. Council Officers have sought Page 1 of 13 to identify potential suitable sites for the purpose of establishing a new- build school. 8. There are a range of sites under consideration for development as part of the Council’s Local Development Plan which therefore require consideration in the context of planning to meet the future demand for school places and in the consequent number and geographical distribution of places required. Issues 9. For the purpose of this report the Fitzalan High School catchment area has been split into three areas, namely Butetown, Canton/Riverside and Grangetown, based upon combined primary school catchment areas. 10. Butetown includes the community school catchments of Mount Stuart Primary School and part of Ysgol Mynydd Bychan. There are also faith schools that serve this locality including St Mary the Virgin CiW Primary School and St Cuthbert’s RC Primary School. 11. Canton/Riverside includes the community school catchments of Lansdowne Primary School, Radnor Primary School, Severn Primary School, Kitchener Primary School, Ysgol Gymraeg Treganna, part of Ysgol Gymraeg Pwll Coch and part of Ysgol Pencae. There are also faith schools that serve this locality including Llandaff City CiW Primary School and St Mary’s Catholic Primary School. 12. Grangetown includes the community school catchments of Ninian Park Primary School, Grangetown Primary School, and Ysgol Gymraeg Pwll Coch. There is a stand-alone nursery school that serves this locality, Grangetown Nursery, and faith schools including St Patrick’s RC Primary School and St Paul’s CiW Primary School. 13. As of September 2015, projections based upon NHS (GP registration) data, school roll data and from within existing housing indicate that there will be a shortfall of approximately 7 Reception places across the Fitzalan catchment area based on applying recent trends to known populations from existing residential areas. This projected shortfall assumes that the current outflow of pupils to other Local Authorities, to private education or to education other than at school remains at a high level of approximately 19-20%. 14. Table 1 below sets out the projected numbers of pupils entering the Reception age group who are resident within the Fitzalan High School catchment area. Page 2 of 13 Table 1: Projected numbers of pupils entering the Reception age group resident within the Fitzalan High School catchment area (existing housing only) Academic Year: Projected Projected Projected Academic entering Projected English- Welsh- Faith Projected % Year of Reception pupil medium medium school total entering birth Year population demand demand demand intake Reception 2007/2008 2012/2013 842 381 141 162 684 81% 2008/2009 2013/2014 834 373 137 159 669 80% 2009/2010 2014/2015 918 403 156 180 739 81% 2010/2011 2015/2016 921 392 166 182 740 80% 15. Based on existing housing, and following completion of existing school proposals there are projected to be sufficient English-medium places in the combined area. However, the supply of and demand for places is not balanced across the locality. Projections indicate a surplus of places in the combined Canton and Riverside area, and in contrast demand greatly exceeding supply in the Grangetown area. 16. There is a projected shortfall of 16 Welsh-medium places at Reception age at September 2015. Temporary measures including demountable classrooms have been utilised to provide additional Welsh-medium places. 17. A number of sites in the area are proposed for housing development sites, some of which have planning permission and others which are at early stages of consideration within the context of the Local Development Plan. Additional pupil yields from these developments would further exacerbate the overall shortfall. 18. Table 2 (below) sets out large housing developments expected to significantly impact the demand for primary school places in the Butetown, Grangetown, Canton and Riverside areas. Page 3 of 13 Table 2: Projected pupil yield from large housing developments planned within the Butetown, Grangetown, Canton and Riverside areas Potential Potential WM WM EM primary Proposed yield yield per EM Yield Planning primary Site Yield catchment units primary year (@75%) permission catchme 1 1 (@25%) area age group nt area Ysgol I.S.V. 798 96 14 10 3 Full Grangetown Pwll Coch N/a - Ysgol Gas Works, 500 155 22 17 6 included in Grangetown Pwll Ferry R LDP Coch Prospect Ysgol Place Full (67% 246 14 2 2 1 Grangetown Pwll (future completed) Coch phase) West of Ysgol Predominantly Dumballs 2070 96 14 10 3 Outline Pwll Grangetown Road Coch Ysgol Bessemer 250 78 11 8 3 Full Ninian Park Pwll Fruit Market Coch Ysgol Porth Teigr Mynydd (Roath 1010 119 17 13 4 Outline Mount Stuart Bychan Basin) (Heath) Ely Mill Ysgol (Arjo 700 217 31 23 8 Outline Lansdowne Treganna Wiggins) Totals 5528 775 111 83 28 Forms of entry (FE) 2 3.7 3.7 2.8 0.9 1Yields are based upon the composition and size of dwellings where known. Where this information is not available, estimates are used. 2 A Form of entry (FE) enables up to 30 pupils to be admitted to each age group. 19. The potential yields from the above developments, whilst increasing the demand for places overall, impact the demand for places in each of the aforementioned areas to a varying extent. Additionally, the timing of the commencement, completion, and composition/ size of the dwellings in each development is unclear at this stage. For the purposes of this report, it is assumed that full pupil yield of each development will impact in September 2015 as projections from existing housing (based upon birth data) are not yet available beyond this date. 20. The below table summarises the supply of school places in each area, and the projected demand for places within each area, including the pupil yields from each relevant development shown in Table 2. Page 4 of 13 Table 3: Supply of and demand for school places within the Butetown, Grangetown, Canton and Riverside areas, including planned 21 st Century Schools developments, and planned housing developments from Table 2. Estimated additional yield Projected demand from planned Combined Supply of places from existing housing demand: (Reception age): housing: (completion dates September 2015 + September2015 September 2015 unknown) planned housing Catchment English Welsh English Welsh EM WM English Welsh areas medium medium medium medium (@75%) (@25%) medium medium Butetown 60 53 2 13 4 66 6 Grangetown 120 162 174 42 47 16 221 58 Canton and Riverside 225 167 121 23 8 190 129 Totals 405 162 394 165 83 28 477 193 Forms of entry (FE) 13.5 5.4 13.1 5.5 2.8 0.9 15.9 6.4 Estimated shortfall of community school places -72 -31 £ The above supply of Welsh-medium places includes Ysgol Gymraeg Treganna at 3FE, Ysgol Gymraeg Pwll Coch at 2FE and a proportion of places at Ysgol Pencae and Ysgol Mynydd Bychan which serve parts of Canton, Riverside and Butetown. 21. In summary, pupil projections from existing housing and proposed housing indicate: • A shortfall in Welsh-medium places across the combined area. • A shortfall in English-medium places in Grangetown that would be exacerbated by housing developments. • Sufficient English-medium places in the combined Canton and Riverside area. • Sufficient places to meet demand from existing housing in Butetown; however, additional places may be required depending upon the number and type of units planned as part of development shown in Table 2. 22. Whilst it will be necessary to increase the capacity of some schools and potentially build new where required it may be possible through the reorganisation of catchment areas to accommodate some of the demand from these large developments in neighbouring areas. 23. Faith Schools across the Fitzalan catchment area are highly subscribed in most year groups and have few surplus places. Discussions have been held with the relevant diocesan authorities with regard to their plans for the future and neither the Catholic Archdiocese nor the Church in Wales Diocese has indicated a desire to expand their provision.