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RESILIENCY IN THE COGNITIVE ERA

IN AN ALWAYS-ON WORLD, REAL-TIME DATA FLOW AND CONTINUOUSLY CONNECTED COGNITIVE APPLICATIONS WILL BE ESSENTIAL

IN ASSOCIATION WITH: CONTENTS

Executive summary ...... 2

Key points ...... 3

Introduction ...... 4

What changes in the cognitive era? ...... 7

Always on: The importance of continuous availability in the cognitive era...... 9

The benefits will be breathtaking. So should the resiliency...... 11

How cognitive capabilities can improve resiliency ...... 13

Conclusion...... 15

Acknowledgments ...... 16 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Cognition enables a new level of engagement with technology and a new class of products and services that sense, reason and learn about their users and the world around them. A cognitive system capitalizes on data from internal and external sources for continuous learning and better forecasting for real-time in a fraction of the time it would take a human. To take full advantage of these capabilities requires a high degree of resilience; data must be accurate, available, accessible and auditable.

New cognitive applications are increasing expectations and raising resiliency requirements for the overall enterprise as well as its IT and data environment. At the same time, cognitive capabilities can help an organization maintain an always- on environment and meet business continuity and disaster recovery goals in a predictive and proactive way.

2 | RESILIENCY IN THE COGNITIVE ERA KEY POINTS

Cognitive computing has arrived. It is enabling a new class of products and services that sense, reason and learn about their users and the world around them. This is already happening in industries including automotive, medical, hospitality, government, media, games, manufacturing, travel, engineering, law, pharmaceutical and science.

As becomes part of our everyday world, it has the potential to radically redefine everyday life, changing how companies deliver products and services, engage and interact with customers, learn and make decisions.

In the cognitive era the continuous availability of data, systems, applications and business processes is essential. It will increasingly be taken for granted that the service is “always on.” Applying advanced analytics and to predict potential issues and enable systems to be corrected proactively will enable businesses to seize new opportunities and defend against disruption.

IBM is investing in new capabilities to help clients move from reactive business continuity and disaster recovery planning to a cognitive, predictive and pro- active resiliency program. The goal: to avoid the impact of a disaster before it occurs.

COPYRIGHT © 2016 FORBES INSIGHTS | 3 INTRODUCTION

Five years ago, the world was introduced to Watson, IBM’s cognitive computing system, which defeated two human champions in an exhibition match of the American game show Jeopardy. Watson has learned a lot since then, tackling ever more complex data sets to develop understanding, reasoning and learning capabilities that go far beyond answering trivia questions.

Watson is helping oil and gas companies combine Kelly III, senior vice president, IBM Research and So- seismic imaging data with analyses of papers and lutions Portfolio. Cognitive systems are probabilistic. reports, current events, economic data and weather “That means they can take all the data we ask them forecasts to outline risk-and-reward scenarios before to look at…and generate hypotheses, reasoned drilling. Financial institutions are employing cogni- arguments and recommendations, along with a tive computing for investment recommendations. In measure of the probability or con!dence level of any Japan, an engaging humanoid robot named Pepper— recommendation generated,” he says. who will be assisting customers at bank branches and retail outlets and providing companionship and care Unlike their science-!ction predecessors, cognitive in the home—will be powered with intelligence and machines are neither able to feel emotion nor are they face recognition from Watson. autonomous. They have the potential to augment our ability to understand—and act upon—complex Watson’s debut on Jeopardy was played as a contest of systems, such as the human genome. The success man versus machine—a machine designed to answer of cognitive computing will not be measured by a questions with knowable answers. But Watson’s computer’s ability to mimic humans. It will be mea- tremendous knowledge base is now being trained sured in more practical and essential ways, like return to answer complex questions and is able to present on investment, more satis!ed customers, new market extensively researched scenarios and probabilities opportunities and—above all—lives saved. in !elds such as oncology. The power of cognitive computing is its ability to illuminate what was We are in an age where we are not able to e"ciently previously invisible—patterns and insight from the or e#ectively utilize the volume of information that is of sound, pictures and movement— produced in a single day across every single industry. allowing more-informed decisions about more- Many organizations are struggling to draw meaningful consequential matters. Watson’s contributions are now conclusions from the unstructured data they a matter of man plus machine. already have. Cognitive computing represents a giant leap forward in addressing this challenge. Its ability to Cognitive systems learn through experience, reason process a vast amount of information, learn from that with purpose and interact with humans naturally. information and provide conclusions is far beyond They represent a leap from the deterministic infor- that of any other technology available today. mation systems that preceded them, explains John E.

4 | RESILIENCY IN THE COGNITIVE ERA Watson’s Expanding Universe

Watson began with a challenge over a decade ago: if a computer can beat a chess master in the wordless game of chess, would it be possible to build a system that could compete in a game that involved language? Watson was originally designed as a system to answer questions posed in natural language—a system capable of breaking down language into phrases, looking for statisti- cally related information and reasoning through possible answers.

Over the past few years, Watson has developed into something much greater. Watson is now a cloud-based platform. The platform is available to developers who are finding ways to pull the cognitive power of Watson into their own organizations in new ways. There are over 80,000 programmers in more than 500 partner companies working with Watson. They have launched hundreds of cognitive applications in healthcare, retail, education, travel and other fields.

Watson’s universe continues to expand. The platform now includes real- time data on weather as well as Twitter feeds and sensor data from a growing range of connected devices—all of which can be used to build business-relevant applications. Watson has also developed sight, beginning with the analysis of medical images. Watson started as an IBM initiative, but it is now a partner in medical research and practice, professional sports, insurance and many other industries. In the near future, Watson could be powering applications in any organization that would benefit from cognitive computing.

COPYRIGHT © 2016 FORBES INSIGHTS | 5 This presents an opportunity for the resiliency pro- At the same time, cognitive capabilities have tre- fession—or anyone responsible for the continuous mendous potential for improving resiliency and operation of an enterprise. disaster recovery. What might Watson teach us about preparing for something as unpredictable as an earth- As cognitive capabilities become more indispensible, quake? Shirley Ann Jackson, president of Rensselaer continuous availability will matter even more than Polytechnic Institute and former chairman of the it does now. If cognitive capabilities can help save U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission in the Clinton a patient’s life, then the consequences of an outage Administration, suggested that Watson could be could mean a dangerous delay in treatment. An used to identify vulnerabilities, such as those at the enterprise that depends on a continuous $ow of Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan, before there data to reach accurate results with a cognitive system is a meltdown. If Watson could help mitigate the might miss valuable insights or risk inaccurate fore- damage from an unavoidable disaster, imagine what casts if that data were disrupted. cognitive capabilities could do for the everyday challenges of ensuring resiliency.

Proactive Resilience

Business resiliency is the ability of an organization to anticipate, respond

and adapt to sudden disruption as well as opportunity. As tolerance for

downtime continues to decrease, the focus of resiliency is to ensure that

businesses are able to continue operations, no matter what happens.

With the ever-increasing reliance on technology, the impact of a failure

of technology could be catastrophic and even life-threatening in some

industries. The integration of analytical and cognitive capabilities can

improve the way companies enable resilience—moving from reactive re-

sponses to predictive and proactive alternatives to avoid the impact of

a technology disaster before it occurs.

6 | RESILIENCY IN THE COGNITIVE ERA WHAT CHANGES IN THE COGNITIVE ERA?

The difference between cognitive computing and conventional computing is its ability to learn, reason and rapidly present a scenario or predict an outcome with a measurable degree of certainty.

Extracting that knowledge from any cognitive system will come through partnerships—partnerships to depends on continuously feeding it as much accu- source data and partnerships to analyze it. And most rate information as possible and then asking the right organizations will be managing themselves within questions. In fact, knowing all the answers will no an ecosystem that will revolve around the data they longer distinguish someone’s intelligence, says IBM’s already possess as well as specialized analytic capabili- Kelly. Human intelligence will be measured by the ties from a range of vendors and the vast new data ability to ask better questions. resources of the Internet of Things.

The insights generated by any cognitive system will To be e#ective, any cognitive system will need to be only as good as the data it can access. Data is generate an analysis fast enough to make a di#erence, already viewed as an asset in most organizations, just and to provide trusted results. For example, if a city as real estate has been for millennia and intellectual government is going to place limits on driving within property for more than a century. In the cognitive certain areas or close factories for a day to avoid a era, maintaining data quality and availability will predicted pollution crisis, there must be a high degree be imperative. This is where data management and of con!dence in the prediction, the data used to continuous availability are key. create the prediction and the timeliness of the analysis.

IDC, a market intelligence !rm, estimates the amount “The key for Watson-powered applications—or any of data will continue to double every two years, and other analytics system that relies on data—is that the the great majority of it will be unstructured. The data is always available, accessible, accountable and ability to analyze that much moving data and com- auditable,” says Scott Ramsey, global partner, IBM pute meaningful insights is outside the core mission Resiliency Services. of most enterprises. The bulk of these capabilities

Many organizations are struggling to draw meaningful conclusions from the unstructured data they already have. Cognitive computing represents a giant leap forward in addressing this challenge.

COPYRIGHT © 2016 FORBES INSIGHTS | 7 data and medicine

Medtronic, one of the largest medical technology companies, is a pioneer in inventing and managing connected devices to improve the health of patients with chronic diseases, such as diabetes. Diabetes is a big disease, affecting one in 11 people around the world at a cost of $673 billion a year globally, says Omar Ishrak, CEO of Medtronic. Most patients measure their own blood sugar, perhaps only once a day, and their doctors may only see average data compiled over a period of several months. But diabetes is a complicated disease, and a patient’s situation changes by the minute, says Ishrak. Looking at average data would do nothing to prevent a life-threatening situation, such as a hypo- glycemic event. “This is where the Internet of Things can make a tremendous difference,” says Ishrak.

Medtronic is working with a Watson-powered system to develop a real- time, cloud-connected monitoring device that can integrate continuous data from as many relevant sources as possible. Patients would have access to a dashboard of their own data and would be able to ask the system questions such as, “If I have this pasta dish, what will that do to my carbohydrate budget for today?”

With Watson, the advisory function can be even more proactive. For example, analyzing past data for a particular patient together with data from patients with similar profiles, Watson might detect a pattern that indicates a possible hypoglycemic event in three hours, even if the patient is well within the safe zone at that moment, and then send out a notification so the person with diabetes can take action to avoid a serious health event. Eventually, activity data from other wearable devices could make this application even more accurate, says Ishrak. To achieve this level of personal trust—where someone’s safety and well-being are at stake—will require a highly resilient technology ecosystem.

8 | RESILIENCY IN THE COGNITIVE ERA Denise Lund Carrie MacGillivray Vernon Turner Mario Morales Morales Mario Turner Vernon MacGillivray Carrie Lund Denise 2014 Demand, and Value Proven of Circle A Virtuous Forecast: 2014–2020 (IoT) Things of Internet Regional and Worldwide IDC, Source: reliable, real-time data. of $ow continuous the and technology on-demand function properly. to technology requirecapabilities cutting-edge these of All operating cloud-based on relying many devices—with other billion with municating 30 com and be data will transmitting devices—all there connected predicts IDC 2020, By imminent collision. real-time of advantage an brakeof automatically clear to steer data or sensor take can that technology avoidancecollision standard,as more such becoming only the autonomous variety. vehicles—not Some safety features are new many into built technology aviation,the safety, industry.insurance the Consider and public planning urban healthcare, also transforming are analytics advanced and sensors Embedded the !rst generation of cognitive-powered, talking toys. with interacting already are consumers youngest the store.analytics,Beyondthe in are they time—while real in devices their through customers with teract in to stores brick-and-mortar allows GPS how Or years.few past the in !nance and banking consumer ers. haveapplications for mobile done what of Think custom with interact they way the transforming is capability ex this enterprises, in many products.For data isting sensor the from learn will we what of result a 50%,as by cut be will developmentproduct for cycles planning and 70% by improve will tions introduc product new of rate success the 2020,by that predicts service.IDC need they when and used areproducts their how companies telling are devices connected and sensors anything.Embedded need or need— and want sometimes before customers customers are even aware what they want into insight of world a opened have analytics business,advanced In of idea the ago, years or dictating text would have seemedremarkable. Five Now we take itfor granted. technology. device wearable a our with health our remotely, monitoring of homes our controlling lot a demand already We A T AVAILABILITY IN THE AVAILABILITY HE IM L W AYS ON: P ORTAN

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9 Building the data is one step to establishing a cog- ment plan? By the time they !nished, it might be too nitive system. Building intelligence requires training late for their patient. Watson can do it in a matter the system. As a platform, Watson has access to of seconds. vast amounts of data—and the ability to grow data continuously in real time. Each industry and each In the cognitive era, rules and Big Data application will have a unique set of questions to an- is time sensitive. The breadth of data relevant to a swer, patterns to discern and phenomena to monitor. particular activity would be irrelevant without a Programmers, application developers and users tell the means to analyze it and generate meaningful insights system what they want or need, Watson analyzes the fast enough to make a di#erence. data and learns both from the questions asked and the “Businesses will adapt to signi!cantly increased history of outcomes exhibited by similar phenomena speed where results become available through and patterns. The more data Watson collects and the complex analytics and cognitive computing,” says more users interact with Watson, the more the system Mijee Walker, global strategy leader, IBM Resiliency will learn. Services. “Once businesses have transformed to using Much of what cognitive computing can accomplish cognitive-enabled processes, the traditional reliance could be done by a human, given enough time, but on manual procedures during an IT outage will not as fast as an intelligent machine can do it. How no longer be able to provide the results at the speed long would it take a team of oncologists to pore over businesses expect and need. This drives the require- tens of millions of medical journals and papers, com- ment for a resilient architecture of the end-to-end pare images of similar cancers and analyze the ge- cognitive system designed to minimize downtime and nome of a single cancer patient to help design a treat- ensure no data loss.”

life-saving insights

Oncology is one of the first areas in which IBM chose to build Watson’s

capabilities as a cognitive system of insight. Working with leading cancer

institutes, Watson is being trained to play an advisory role in research and patient

treatment. For doctors at University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center,

the training is working both ways. While doctors and researchers help expand

the core knowledge available to all cancer treatment practitioners, Watson uses

all that structured and unstructured data to illuminate molecular anomalies,

outline treatment possibilities and even help discover new proteins for future

cancer research.

“Watson allows us to truly integrate research into everyday care,” says Lynda

Chin, associate vice chancellor and chief innovation officer for health affairs, the

University of Texas System. “It allows us to practice the art of medicine, not just

the science.”

10 | RESILIENCY IN THE COGNITIVE ERA THE BENEFITS WILL BE BREATHTAKING. SO SHOULD THE RESILIENCY.

IT infrastructures are already diverse—part traditional IT, part private cloud, part public cloud and part hybrid cloud—and increasingly delivered as a service to improve speed, flexibility and scalability.

The increased integration of di#erent enterprise more embedded in cognitive applications in a tiered systems makes resilience far more complex, says way, says Laurence Guihard-Joly, general manager, Patrick J. McMahon, U.S. practice leader, IBM IBM Resiliency Services. “As more interconnected Resiliency Services. “The technology being deployed devices are gathering information and generating is much more heterogeneous and drives more com- data, we will start to see more insights derived from plex solutions, and that makes it harder to maintain the analysis of data, and the need to safeguard that resiliency,” he says. “It’s signi!cantly more di"cult to data to ensure it is protected while, at the same time, recover an application or business process that cuts continuously available to the stakeholders who need across multiple point solutions.” access to it.”

But what needs to change going forward to make this happen? First of all, resiliency will need to become

“Businesses will adapt to significantly increased speed where results become available through complex analytics and cognitive computing.”

–M ijee Walker Global Strategy Leader, IBM Resiliency Services

COPYRIGHT © 2016 FORBES INSIGHTS | 11 The graphic below depicts the “IBM Business Resiliency Framework,” illustrating seven layers of resiliency across the enterprise. As cognitive computing becomes more pervasive within organizations, there will be additional considerations in each layer related to resiliency.

Have you considered the impact of Strategy not being able to support cognitive and Vision capabilities used in design of business strategy and vision?

How will cognitive computing impact Organization your organization’s structure and its ability to recover during a crisis?

What will you need to do in order to processes recover cognitive capabilities as they are embedded into business processes?

Have you considered the impact to your systems development life cycle as applications cognitive applications are developed and their resiliency requirements?

Data is the life-blood of cognitive data computing. How will that bear on your data replication and recovery strategies?

Have you considered the requirements for ensuring continuous availability of technology cognitive platforms in your resiliency program?

Are you thinking about the design facilities requirements for facilities and data centers supporting cognitive computing?

IBM BUSINESS RESILIENCY FRAMEWORK In the cognitive era, the collaboration between man and machine will create significant dependencies between them. The loss of data or infrastructure will have severe impacts and consequences. This requires resiliency strategies to ensure data and infrastructure are always there and available on demand.

12 | RESILIENCY IN THE COGNITIVE ERA HOW COGNITIVE CAPABILITIES CAN IMPROVE RESILIENCY

The same cognitive capabilities that are expanding knowledge and redefining analytics can be deployed to make any enterprise more resilient. Consider a factor as fundamental and uncontrollable as the weather.

According to data gathered by Munich Re, weather- new data points, new learning and new services,” says related natural catastrophes in the United States Guihard-Joly. caused more than $1 trillion in losses and 30,000 deaths between 1980 and 2011. What if we could What else can cognitive computing capabilities do for crunch weather data to predict the potential impact of resiliency? Here are a few examples: severe weather and prompt appropriate action? Using Predicting failure—and avoiding it. For resiliency Weather Company data and Twitter feeds, insurance professionals, predicting weather events with more companies are now able to use a Watson-powered accurate probability is only one of many tools in the application for real-time weather insights to alert !eld of predictive failures. If there is a high probability clients to hazardous conditions, such as a hailstorm, of a hurricane, for example, a system in its path could and suggest alternate routes or shelter locations. fail ahead of time. Cognitive systems can run analysis Airlines have the opportunity to combine real-time on di#erent data sets, using correlation analysis and and historical data to reduce delays and optimize time-series analysis to predict failures—for instance, fuel consumption. Utilities could be able to better by mapping network service orders with past equip- predict outages and respond more quickly when bad ment failures to understand which scenarios are most weather strikes. likely to result in a failure and avoid a full-blown IBM’s Guihard-Joly believes this kind of dynam- breakdown. ic, real-time knowledge can help companies adapt Analyzing best practices. Consider two com- products and services that anticipate the weather, panies with state-of-the-art resiliency plans. One including disaster recovery and business continu- company is experiencing outages, and the other ity. “We have a crisis team in every country, tracking company is not. What are they doing di#erently? The storms and making sure the locations and teams are answer might not be obvious. Perhaps one company ready, business units are informed, and their business is using bleeding-edge technology and the other is continuity leaders are aware of what’s coming,” she waiting at least six months. A cognitive system can says. “They will use all the help of cognitive capabili- compare multiple variables across multiple companies ties to support critical decision making, such as do I to look for correlations that de!ne the most successful evacuate a site and send people home, or do I need to resiliency practices, and even do it by industry. move data to another location?” Relying on a virtual engineer. Dynamic automa- Of course, humans have attempted to predict tion can address repetitive and routine incidents, such the weather for millennia. What has changed is the as adding storage if a !le system is reaching capacity. volume of data available to analyze and the cognitive IBM’s virtual engineer is addressing 64% of incidents capabilities to use that data to customize, hypothesize automatically, reducing time to resolve a situation by and learn continuously. Watson now ingests Weather 80 minutes on average. Company data from 3 billion weather forecast refer- ence points, more than 40 million smartphones and Orchestrating process resiliency. Cognitive 50,000 airplane $ights per day. Those data points computing can be deployed for resiliency planning as will grow exponentially as more and more devices well as predicting. “We can have multiple data copies, are connected. “You can really learn and increase the we can have redundant systems, but even the best- accuracy of what you are doing and actually create laid resiliency plans can be undone if one small ele-

COPYRIGHT © 2016 FORBES INSIGHTS | 13 ment in a process is missing,” explains BJ Klingenberg, there is a technical issue. For IBM Power Systems™, distinguished engineer, chief technology o"cer, IBM System x® and System Storage™, IBM Technical Resiliency Services. Process orchestration is the key. Support Services use Watson to respond with an “When a process is executed, whether a claim for an answer in less than a second, reducing problem insurance company or a banking transaction, if we determination time by up to 37%. fail to recover a dependent technology component, the process fails,” he says. “We can have the cogni- Adding cognitive analytics to disaster recov- tive system analyze any process to make sure we don’t ery and business continuity planning. Speed is miss anything from a resiliency perspective,” he adds. of the essence in an emergency. Cognitive analytics A Watson-powered application can learn every step of can help prioritize the most e#ective allocation of a mission-critical process to help with planning and assets to restore systems and services, assist employees in case of disaster recovery. A cognitive approach can and notify customers. This analysis can help in the illuminate obscure dependencies that tend to develop planning stage—and it can be ready to kick in with as systems grow in complexity. the most up-to-date information if disaster strikes. For example, if the roads are blocked and communication Integrating the cognitive agent into techni- lines are down for certain key employees, noti!ca- cal support. Every moment equipment is down tions to backup teams can be generated automatically, can mean lost revenue, decreased productivity and based on the response, or lack of response, from frustrated end-users. A cognitive agent can answer key responders. questions with precision for faster uptime when

Managing the Data Explosion

Cognitive systems are already adding new analytic capabilities to resiliency planning and disaster recovery. But the explosion in data from connected devices and the enterprise-transforming power of analytics will test the limits of feasibility for system resiliency going forward. “Data growth is the biggest issue I see with every client,” says BJ Klingenberg, distinguished engineer, chief technology officer, IBM Resiliency Services. The amount of new enterprise data doubles every 18 months, according to IDC estimates. Data from sensors, devices and social media is growing even faster. “Will we be able to build datacenters fast enough to keep up?” he asks.

That raises an important question: When is it okay to throw data away? Or to stop saving redundant data? How can an enterprise optimize its storage environment? At some point, software-defined resiliency will help manage the data explosion, predicts Klingenberg. “At IBM, we are applying cognitive techniques to determine when you don’t need copies of the same data in storage, on the server and in the application, because the costs are going to skyrocket,” he says. Data storage optimization in the future will be a matter of orchestrating across these layers to decide what really matters and tier storage intelligently.

14 | RESILIENCY IN THE COGNITIVE ERA CONCLUSION

The future of technology is cognitive, and the future is here. is already enabling a new class of products and services that sense, reason and learn about their users and the world around them.

This is the true promise of cognitive computing With cognitive infused into your resiliency program, because it allows for continuous improvement and you will be able to: adaptation, and for capabilities not previously imag- ined. This is already happening with cars, medical • Provide the right level of data availability devices, appliances and even toys. Cognition transforms and protection across your business how a company operates. Business processes infused • Become more proactive than reactive in your with cognitive capabilities capitalize on the surge of resiliency program data from internal and external sources. • Improve your resiliency profile Is your organization ready? Is your resiliency program able to support cognitive products and services? Can There is a strong business case for adding cognitive you protect the $ow of real-time data from connected to your resiliency program. A holistic risk manage- devices used by your customers? Will you be able to ment approach plus a strong and proactive resiliency support the deeper engagement that your customers pro!le will allow an organization to take more busi- will come to expect from cognitive-enabled apps? Are ness risks—all while securing employees’ engagement you ready to manage data availability when your data and taking full advantage of cutting-edge technolo- is growing exponentially? gies to create a di#erentiated customer experience. A strong resiliency program is, ultimately, a competitive To succeed in the cognitive era, every organization advantage. needs the right plan and the right tools to ensure resilience and data quality. The time is now to make sure your cognitive business processes are truly resilient. Cognitive solutions can take your resiliency program into the next era.

COPYRIGHT © 2016 FORBES INSIGHTS | 15 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Forbes Insights and IBM would like to thank the following individuals for their time and expertise:

Dr. Lynda Chin, Associate Vice Chancellor and Chief Innovation Officer for Health Affairs, the University of Texas System

Laurence Guihard-Joly, General Manager, IBM Resiliency Services

Omar Ishrak, CEO, Medtronic

John E. Kelly III, Senior Vice President, IBM Research and Solutions Portfolio

BJ Klingenberg, Distinguished Engineer, Chief Technology Officer, IBM Resiliency Services

Patrick J. McMahon, U.S. Practice Leader, IBM Resiliency Services

Scott Ramsey, Global Partner, IBM Resiliency Services

Mijee Walker, Global Strategy Leader, IBM Resiliency Services

Learn more about IBM Resiliency Services at ibm.com/services/resiliency

16 | RESILIENCY IN THE COGNITIVE ERA ABOUT FORBES INSIGHTS

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