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JOGMEC Office Oil & Gas Researcher Sangeeta Jordan アナリシス The European gas market and the outlook for LNG demand in （欧州ガス市場とLNG需要見通し）

Introduction Gas is a key source of energy in Europe’s ＊1 energy supply mix. Gas is supplied to Europe either via pipeline as natural gas or as frozen gas, liquefied natural gas（LNG）, which is regasified in an LNG import（or regasification）terminal. Europe is expected to absorb the LNG surplus coming onto the market in the second half of the and early . However the region is facing many uncertainties. This paper focuses on Europe’s gas supply and demand dynamics. On the supply side, we will examine Europe’s domestic gas production, Europe’s key pipeline suppliers and the likelihood of new pipeline suppliers to Europe emerging over the next decade. In the second half of the paper, we will cover the demand side. We will focus on the sectors where demand uptake has occurred or is predicted and will show how gas demand growth in these sectors is determined to a large extent by government policies. Finally, the outlook for LNG growth in gas demand in the European market will be discussed.

1. Europe as the residual market for LNG

In 2016, Europe’s net imports of LNG totalled 51 160 bcm of additional LNG with the existing bcm, which represented 15.3 per cent of the global infrastructure. However, there is a regional mismatch： LNG market（GIINL, 2017）. Although LNG imports to regasification capacity is concentrated in Western Europe slowed down in the second half of 2016, Europe, along the Mediterranean and Atlantic Coasts Europe is still considered to be a significant market for while there is limited access to LNG in central and LNG. In 2015, eleven countries in Europe imported southeast Europe, due to the lack of LNG regasification LNG. Currently Europe has 29 LNG import terminals capacity and interconnectors. Weak interconnections in operation, with a total LNG regasification capacity of between EU countries are a major obstacle preventing 208 bcm（Standaert, 2016）. The LNG import terminals LNG from flowing across the EU. Notwithstanding the are mainly large scale, but Floating Storage underutilization rate, 33 additional terminals are either Regasification Units（FSRUs）and small scale terminals currently under construction or planned（Table 1）. are playing an increasingly important role in LNG For example, ’s New National Energy Strategy regasification（Table 1）. （NES）lays out plans to develop an additional LNG As can be seen from the above, Europe currently terminal and increase storage capacity with the has an oversupply of regasification capacity and objective of increasing the liquidity of the Italian theoretically the region could receive approximately market and diversifying the country’s sources of

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アナリシス supply（Favasuli, 2017）. Adding additional regasification Table1 Number of LNG import terminals per type capacity while terminals are practically idle has been criticised by many（Walstad, 2016）（LNG World News, Type Operational Under Construction Planned 2016）. Nevertheless, it is suggested that the mere Large scale 24 3 23 FSRUs and others 2 0 11 availability of a regasification terminal may enhance Small-scale 4 4 4 the importer’s competitive position vis-a-vis pipeline Total 29 6 27 gas suppliers. It is hoped that the construction of Note：Figures may not add up due to overlap in categories. terminals in Central and Eastern European countries Source：Gas Infrastructure Europe could reduce dependency of these countries on Russian reopened in Europe in anticipation of the growing role gas supplies and improve price competition. LNG LNG will play in Europe’s energy supply（Financial terminals are also being expanded, constructed or Times, 2017）.

2. Europe’s indigenous gas production

The overall trend for European domestic gas natural gas production in 2012. With the exception of production is downwards. European gas production has , the remaining European countries are faced fallen by 41% in the last decade and the BP Energy with declining domestic gas production. Outlook predicts domestic gas output to fall by 3.2% Norway’s production is expected to plateau and then per annum until 2035 as existing fields mature and are slowly decline post-2020. In the UK, gas production is not replaced（BP, 2017）. In 2014, European domestic expected to decline, though the new supply from the gas production stood at 250 bcm, which was Culzean and Platypus fields due to come online from approximately 50 per cent of Europe’s gas 2019 will slow the rate of decline. Meanwhile in the requirements. However in 2016, according to Eurostat , the Dutch government has been steadily data, European domestic production only accounted for reducing output from Europe’s largest field in approximately 30 percent of Europe’s gas supply. Groningen as a result of earthquakes and seismic Norway, the Netherlands and the are tremors. Currently production at Groningen has been the three largest producers of natural gas in Europe, capped to 24 bcm per annum（Reuters, 2016）, which is accounting for more than 80% of the region’s total more than halving the production from its 2014 peak.

3. Prospects for unconventional gas in Europe

As a result of the decline in domestic conventional long term, with estimates of only 0.5 bcm in output by gas production, European countries have made 2030（Wood Mackenzie, 2016）. Unconventional gas increasing recourse to unconventional gas production production was touted as being a“game changer” for in an attempt to increase energy security. However, , as the estimated volume of 768 bcm of shale the prospects for unconventional gas production in reserves was considered to be sufficient to enable the Europe are not bright. According to Wood Mackenzie, country to realize its hopes of becoming energy the contribution of European shale gas production to independent of （Tallents, 2011）. However after the European supply mix will not be significant in the drilling 70 wells, commercial gas volumes were not

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recovered and key international players ended up increasingly important role in supplying the European exiting shale gas exploration.＊2 Other countries in the gas market（EIA, 2016）. EU have imposed outright bans or moratoria on drilling Before we examine the outlook for LNG in Europe, and fracking.＊3 we need to look at Europe’s current pipeline suppliers The future of unconventional gas production in the and the potential for additional gas supplies from other UK is still uncertain. Geological surveys suggest that pipeline suppliers. the UK has significant shale gas reserves（Delebarre et In 2015, approximately 87% of imported gas to al, 2017）and the UK government’s support for Europe was pipeline gas while LNG represented the unconventional gas production is strong（Ozawa, remaining 13%（European Commission, 2015）. In 2015）. Currently shale gas exploration is concentrated 2015, pipeline gas was supplied to Europe from Russia in three areas of the UK：Cheshire, East Midlands and （40%）, Norway（37%）, Algeria（7%）and Libya（2%） Yorkshire. Proponents of fracking argue that shale gas （European Commission, 2015）. The top three pipe has the potential to provide the UK with greater suppliers of gas to Europe ramped up gas supplies in energy security, economic growth and job creation 2016 in an attempt to either maintain or increase opportunities. In an attempt to“revolutionise UK market share（Platts, 2017）. In 2016 Russia increased manufacturing”＊4 and to create energy security, the shipments to Europe and with exports petrochemical company, INEOS, has recently expanded reaching an estimated 185 bcm. Similarly, Norway in its shale gas licence portfolio, enabling the company to 2016 exported close to its record high from 2015 of carry out exploration over approximately one million 115 bcm. In an interview with Platts, Norway’s acres（400,000 hectares）. Notwithstanding INEOS’ energy minister, Tord Lien, stated that“we have a large scale acquisition of shale licenses, there is very good understanding on the next 20 years where significant scepticism among many energy companies we expect to export on average 100 bcm per year. about the prospects for shale gas production in the UK. That is less than today, but it’s still high. It’s going to Concerns about the commercial viability of shale gas in still be more than 20% of the EU’s gas consumption.” the UK have been heightened after Engie divested all Gas exports from Algeria grew by 13 bcm in 2016 its shale gas assets in the UK（Ward, 2017）. Further, from 38 bcm in 2015.＊5 However, in the longer term, the considerable opposition to fracking by various Wood Mackenzie questions Norway’s ability to segments of the population is perceived to be a major maintain export levels at 100 bcm until 2035. obstacle to the development of unconventional gas Similarly, post 2020, Wood Mackenzie raises concerns production in the UK. It is widely considered that whether Algeria will be able to maintain its present unconventional gas production will not contribute export levels as output from maturing fields decline significantly to UK’s energy mix. （Wood Mackenzie, 2016）. Thus, it can be seen that With declining domestic production and an uncertain there is uncertainty over how much gas Norway, future for unconventional gas production, gas imports Algeria and Libya will be able to supply Europe in the will rise in Europe. However, the volume, form and future, though Russia’s ability to ramp up supplies is source of the additional imports remains unclear. On undisputed. the one hand, BP Energy Outlook projects that the Pipeline gas imports from other sources are not contribution of imported gas will increase from around expected to grow greatly, at least over the next 50% in 2015 to nearly 80% by 2035 and that LNG decade. Turkmenistan, Kurdistan, Iran, Azerbaijan and imports will supply around two-thirds of the increase in the East Mediterranean area including Cyprus, Israel imports. Wood Mackenzie on the other predicts weak and could potentially supply gas to Europe. Yet LNG imports post 2025 and an increasing reliance on most of these suppliers face internal instabilities or pipeline Russian imports（Wood Mackenzie, 2016）. The geopolitical tensions making it highly unlikely that the US Energy Information Administration（EIA）2016 region will be a secure source of gas supply for a World Outlook predicts that LNG will play an decade or probably longer. Wood Mackenzie’s forecast

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is bullish on gas production from Azerbaijan, Iran and East Mediterranean area faces various problems. the Kurdistan region of Iraq, stating in a 2016 update Uncertainty over pipelines remains, as a pipeline to on key pipe exporters that the substantial gas reserves Turkey would be politically difficult and expensive and held by these 3 countries could supply Turkey and a pipeline to Greece would be too long and technically Europe with nearly 50 bcm of gas, which is just under complicated. Consequently, although Europe wishes to 10% of total European demand by 2030（Wood reduce its dependence on Russian gas, alternative Mackenzie, 2017）. sources of domestic and imported gas remain limited. However, other analysts are less optimistic, As a result, LNG could potentially play a greater role suggesting that Azerbaijan’s imports from Gazprom in in the future, with its precise impact however yet to be 2015 to fulfil domestic requirements is indicative of determined. The future role of LNG in the European major problems of supply from old fields and cast gas supply is contingent on the future of natural gas doubt on potential export volumes to Europe（Honore, demand in general, which is hard to predict. 2016）. Likewise the development of the fields in the

4. Gas demand： Will it rise?

Natural gas is a significant contributor to the than 2015 levels but it is an increase all the same. European energy mix. According to BP Energy Even less optimistic is the IEA 450 Scenario projection, Outlook, gas accounted for 22% of the European which is based on more aggressive environmental energy mix in 2015 and BP predicts that the share of policies. In this scenario, the IEA forecasts gas gas in the mix will increase to 28% in 2035（Table 2） demand to decrease by 33 bcm from 2020 - 2030 and （BP, 2017）. Similarly, industry group, Eurogas, drop by 87bcm from 2030-2040（IEA, 2016）. forecasts that gas will supply approximately 30 per Likewise, the European Commission forecasts gas cent of the share of the energy mix by 2030. Market demand falling to 412 bcm in 2030 but increasing to fundamentals in Europe have tightened with gas 420 bcm in 2050（European Commission, 2016）. demand increasing by 18 bcm in 2016（Wood Despite the optimistic forecasts mentioned above, a Mackenzie, 2016）. This comes as welcome news to the more realistic and generally accepted position is that gas industry, as European gas demand had fallen for 4 gas demand in Europe is stagnating. consecutive years beginning in 2011. It can be seen from the above that there is Despite European gas demand stabilising in 2015 uncertainty over how much European gas demand will and 2016, European gas demand remains structurally low. Forecasts for gas demand in Europe over the next Primary energy consumption 20-30 years vary considerably. Exxon Mobil’s outlook Table2（units in Mtoe unless otherwise noted） is the most optimistic, forecasting European gas Level Share（％） demand to reach 594 bcm by 2035. Similarly, the US 2015 2016 2015 2016 Energy Information Administration（EIA）forecasts gas Total 1,631 1,508 demand in the OECD Europe region to grow from 509 Oil（Mb/d） 12 9 36 30 bcm in 2012 to 716 bcm in 2040（EIA, 2016）. On the Gas（Bcf/d） 39 45 22 28 Coal 262 117 16 8 other hand, the International Energy Agency（IEA）is Nuclear 194 138 12 9 less bullish. In the IEA’s central scenario, New Policies Hydro 76 84 5 6 Scenario, gas demand is forecast to reach 521 bcm in Renewables 150 300 9 20 OECD Europe in 2030, which is only marginally higher Source：BP Energy Outlook

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grow. This is because gas demand growth is contingent European economies and the degree to which more on whether there will be strong economic growth in stringent environmental policies are adopted.

5. Sectors where gas uptake is predicted

（1） Power Generation • The replacement of ageing nuclear and coal-fired This section will focus on the two sectors where plants with natural gas fired and renewable there is gas demand uptake or where gas demand is capacity, which are cheaper and faster to build expected to increase, namely power generation and （Tallents, 2011）. For instance in Europe, the transportation（Corbeau, A-S and Yermakov, V, 2016） overnight cost of a combined-cycle gas turbine （Cedigaz, 2015）. There are few expectations of much （CCGT） is 50% of a supercritical coal plant. additional gas consumption in the industrial and • Nuclear outages in . residential sectors（except for , Turkey and in • Coal to gas switching. The establishment of a Eastern Europe）and thus these sectors will not be Carbon Price Floor has encouraged significant covered here. Eurogas forecasts the largest increase in levels of coal-to-gas switching in the UK. Italy, gas consumption to come from power generation（from , Germany and the Netherlands are 136.5 bcm in 2005 to 265 bcm in 2030）. Similarly, the considered key potential switching markets in EIA predicts the annual growth rate in the power Europe（Timera Energy, 2016）. generation sector to be 3.6% from 2020 to 2040. The These positive trends in the uptake of gas by the demand recovery of 2015 and 2016 from the lows of power generation sector are predicted to continue until 2011-2014 has been, to a large degree, a result of around 2024, rising to around 169 bcm, due in part to increased gas consumption for power generation（Elliot, the lower LNG prices. The lower LNG prices expected 2017）. In 2016, approximately 26% of gas was used in the second half of the 2010s and early 2020s will in the power generation sector. Gas demand for power create some demand in the power sector, but according generation rose in the UK, Germany, France, the to Honore, gas prices will need to drop to very low Netherlands and Italy. The UK accounted for the levels to start making a real difference in the regional largest growth with an estimated 43% of the 20 bcm mix（Honore, 2016）. Gas prices would probably need of power sector demand recovery（Table 3）. The to drop below $3.5/MMBtu in 2016 in Western Europe reasons for the growth in the power sector in Europe before switching from coal to gas starts to happen include： outside the UK. • The environmental benefits of gas over coal as Despite these positive trends however, the outlook

gas emits around half the CO2 of coal when for gas demand in the power sector is uncertain for burned. several reasons： • Ineffective carbon price. According to the IEA, carbon prices under the EU’s Emission Trading System（ETS） have been far too low and would Top power markets driving 2016 gas Table3 demand recovery（bcm） have to quadruple from the current level of around 5 Euros/t to encourage switching to gas UK 8.5 Denmark 3.3 （Fraser, 2016）. In a similar fashion, Stern is also France 2.5 Italy 1.9 critical of the failure of EU policy to raise carbon NL 1.2 Other EU28 2.2 prices to effective levels and points out that Source：Timera Energy, Sandbag/Agoda Energiewende national measures, such as the UK carbon support

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price and the emission performance standards will play a major role in both road and maritime （EPS）will have to be play a stronger role（Stern, transport. According to the European Commission’s 2017）. Alternative Fuels Infrastructure, which is the • Competition from renewables. Costs of renewables cornerstone of the CPT package, member states are are decreasing and will continue to decrease required to develop a plan（National Policy making renewables competitive against gas in the Framework） to establish a network of refuelling energy sector. The European Commission’s 2030 stations for natural gas vehicles in cities, ports and Energy Strategy foresees a share in consumption along the Trans-European- Network for Transport of at least 27 percent for renewable energy while （TEN-T）（European Commission, 2014）. Wood Mackenzie forecasts that renewables could Table 4 shows the LNG infrastructure in Europe. reach approximately 44% of the European power The European Natural & bio Gas Vehicle Association mix by 2030（Wood Mackenzie, 2016）. （NGVA Europe）, estimates that there will be approximately 400,000 gas-fuelled trucks on EU roads （2）Transportation by 2030. Presently there are around 1,300 LNG The transportation sector is viewed by many as a fuelled trucks in Europe, of which nearly half were in promising new sector for the use of gas. Cedigaz the UK（Le Fevre, 2016）. In regards to marine forecasts natural gas consumption, both compressed transport, 81 per cent of all LNG fuelled ships are in natural gas（CNG） and LNG, in this sector to grow six- Norway and at present only Norway and have fold by 2035（Cedigaz, 2015）. With the objective of small-scale LNG terminals for bunkering purposes. The decarbonising the transport sector, natural gas usage International Maritime Organization’s regulations on in this sector is actively supported by EU policy. The sulphur limits will further incentive LNG usage as a Clean Power for Transport（CPT） package, which marine fuel, though the volume of LNG absorbed by underpins European policy, recognises that natural gas shipping will not be very significant（Honore, 2016）.

Table4 LNG infrastructure in Europe

Operational Under construction Planned LNG terminals Re-loading 15 2 12 Transhipment 3 2 4 Bunker ship loading 9 7 11 Truck loading 19 8 5 Rail loading 0 0 4 Liquefaction 22 n.a 2 Bunkering for ships 26 5 22 Bunker ships 5 4 6 Refuelling for trucks 70 14 19 Source：Le Fevre, 2016

6. The outlook for LNG in Europe

From the previous sections, it can be seen that the to absorb LNG supplies, albeit not uniformly. Corbeau European gas market is characterised by declining suggests that ironically LNG demand may grow in domestic production and low gas demand growth. At Europe where total gas demand is stagnating, because the same time, Europe has the necessary infrastructure rising global LNG supply leads to increased

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requirements, and countries opt for LNG instead of US LNG Export Destinations as of Table5 pipeline gas for political, supply diversification, and 2016

flexibility reasons（Corbeau, 2016）. Indeed the Country Cargo European Commission views LNG supplies as integral Chile 9 Brazil 4 to diversifying sources of supply and improving energy Argentina 4 India 4 security in the region. In the European Commission’s Mexico 3 strategy for LNG and gas storage, countries that have Jordan 2 Kuwait 2 access to LNG are considered to be significantly more Spain 1 UAE 1 resilient to possible supply interruptions than those China 1 Dom Rep 1 dependent on a single gas supplier（European 1 Commission, 2016）. Thus, the European Commission Turkey 1 Source：Platts has included LNG infrastructure projects in the Baltic, central-eastern and south-eastern European regions in the list of projects to be accelerated and eligible for financial support. LNG import terminals will enable commitments to the Asian markets（Clemente, 2016） these regions to have the capacity and flexibility to and competition from US LNG suppliers（Elliot, 2016）. receive LNG cargoes at short notice, whenever the Qatari LNG supplies will increasingly face competition price is competitive, thereby enhancing energy from US LNG suppliers as shale gas production soars security. in the United States. To date LNG shipments from the The European gas market has been referred to as United States to Europe have been less than predicted the“clearinghouse for LNG”（Schmers, 2017）,“the with only 8 cargoes shipped to Europe（Elliot, S and dumping ground for the world’s LNG”（Flowers, Reale F., 2017）, totalling 0.23 million tonnes（GIINL, 2016）,“the swing market for LNG”（Corbeau, A-S and 2017）. In 2015, the majority of US LNG cargoes were Yermakov, V, 2016）,“the residual market for LNG” delivered to South America（Table 5）. Nevertheless （Honore, 2016）and the“market of last resort” Europe is expected to absorb greater volumes of US （Clemente, 2016）. In other words, the role of the LNG as more US LNG projects come on stream in the European market has been to absorb LNG that cannot second half of the 2010s and early 2020s.＊7 Cheniere, be absorbed by markets elsewhere. This was the first US LNG exporter, estimates approximately illustrated in 2015 when the slowdown in Asian half of its total LNG exports will head to Europe in the demand resulted in Asian bound LNG being rerouted future. This forecast is supported by Wood Mackenzie to Europe. However, contrary to expectations, the and Platts. European market did not function as a sink for LNG in Wood Mackenzie projected that 55% of US LNG 2016. The UK, and the Netherlands recorded volumes, or about 42 million tonnes per year, would be declines in LNG imports. In fact in the UK, pipeline gas sent to Europe by 2020（Shiryaevskaya, 2016）. displaced LNG imports. Similarly, the IEA, in the World Energy Outlook, In 2016 Europe sourced LNG mainly from Qatar, forecasts that US LNG will fill the gap created by the Algeria, Nigeria, Norway and Peru.＊6 Europe’s main decline in Norwegian output and the drop in Russian LNG supplier has been Qatar, although supplies from gas imports（IEA, 2016）. However Russian industry Qatar dropped 4.4 bcm in 2016 from 28.4 bcm in 2015. players and analysts predict that the anticipated It is doubtful whether Qatar will increase export growth of US LNG imports will not materialize volumes to Europe given its growing domestic demand, （Aksyutin, 2017）.

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7. Challenges for US LNG in Europe

With global LNG production on the verge of in Europe is unclear and contingent on two main significant increases, interest in Europe’s underutilised factors, namely： regasification capacity and its liquid and well developed • What happens in other countries? LNG is“price gas trading hubs is growing. In a surplus global LNG sensitive” and LNG will go to markets where it market in 2015-2020, the region could be the recipient can be sold most profitably. For instance, despite of substantial LNG supplies. LNG could solve Europe’s an increase in gas demand in the second half of energy security issues as Europe’s indigenous gas 2016 in Europe, LNG shipments to Europe in production continues to decline and LNG could help 2016 were scarce as LNG was delivered to Europe to diversify energy supplies. Further, the higher paying markets in Asia. political will to import LNG will also be a major driver • How Russia responds. Russia has a surplus in LNG uptake. For these reasons Europe’s LNG capacity and could send additional gas to Europe imports could grow. However the outlook for US LNG at prices competitive to LNG.

8. Conclusion

The future of natural gas demand in Europe remains surplus capacity and could send additional gas to unclear. There is no consensus of views regarding Europe at prices competitive to LNG, in order to European gas demand growth. Some forecasts predict maintain its market share. What happens in the Asian a decline in demand by 2030, though most projections markets will determine how keen the LNG suppliers predict European gas demand will grow, albeit slowly. are to send LNG to Europe. LNG enables Europe to The region will face a decline in domestic production, access world supplies and to have flexibility in gas which will increase the need for imports. It would supplies. Diversification of gas supplies and flexibility seem that Russia is the only pipeline gas supplier with are strongly encouraged by the European Commission the ability to provide Europe with guaranteed volumes and thus it would appear that LNG supplies to Europe or an increase in volumes if required. Russia will be will grow in the future. the main competitor to LNG in Europe. Russia has a

9. Notes

＊1：Europe in this paper applies to the region consisting of 35 countries（EU28 + Albania, , Macedonia, Norway, , and Turkey）. ＊2：Conoco Philips, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Total and Marathon exited shale gas exploration. ＊3：France, the Netherlands, , the Czech Republic and imposed bans or moratoria on fracking. ＊4：Quote from Jim Ratcliffe, INEOS Chairman. Found at INEOS Shale website： http://www.ineos.com/businesses/ineos-shale/our-business/

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＊5：58.8 bcm supplied to Europe from Algeria includes LNG. Source： Export, Gazprom Investors Day（2017）. ＊6：Small amounts of LNG were also imported from Angola, Australia, Egypt, Trinidad and the US. ＊7：By 2020 US LNG export capacity is estimated to reach about 60 million tonnes. Source： LNG World News

10. Bibliography

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[Accessed 3 March 2017]. 16. Favasuli, S., 2017. Interfax Global Energy. 17. Flowers, A., 2016. Workshop given by Andy Flowers. ： World LNG Summit. 18. Fraser, P., 2016. Global gas market outlook. European gas conference, Vienna： IEA. 19. GIINL, 2017. International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers. [Online] Available at： Annual Report 2017. http://www.giignl.org/publications [Accessed 10 March 2017]. 20. Honore, A., 2016. LNG Demand Potential. In： LNG Markets in Transition： The Great Reconfiguration. New York： Oxford University Press, pp. 307-326. 21. IEA, 2016. World Energy Outlook 2016. 22. Le Fevre, C., 2016. LNG as a Transport Fuel. In： LNG Markets in Transition： The Great Reconfiguration. New York： Oxford University Press, pp. 442-468. 23. LNG World News, 2016. LNG World News. [Online] Available at： http://www.lngworldnews.com/ceer-current-lng-infrastructure-in-europe-sufficient/ [Accessed 10 March 2017]. 24. Ozawa, D., 2015. Drill UK Drill（Prim and Properly Please....）. JOGMEC, 49（3）, pp. 40-55. 25. Platts, 2017. US LNG vs Pipeline Gas： European Market Share War? Natural Gas Special Report. 26. Reuters, 2016. Dutch government lowers Groningen gas output cap to 24 bcm. [Online] Available at： http://uk.reuters.com/article/netherlands-energy-groningen-idUKL8N19G55U [Accessed 10 March 2017]. 27. Schmers, C., 2017. How will greater volumes of LNG impact European gas pricing and trading?. Vienna： European Gas conference. 28. Shiryaevskaya, A., 2016. More than half of US LNG is destined for Europe, WoodMac Says. Bloomberg. 29. Standaert, K., 2016. European LNG infrastructure： from large-scale to small-scale status and outlook. Hamburg, LNG Congress. 30. Stern, J., 2017. The Future of Gas in Decarbonising European Energy Markets, Oxford： OIES. 31. Tallents, A., 2011. European gas supply and demand, and the outlook for shale gas. Jogmec, pp. 43-63. 32. Timera Energy, 2016. Timera Energy. [Online] Available at： http://www.timera-energy.com/gas-vs-coal-switching-in-europe-key-markets/ [Accessed 15 March 2017]. 33. Walstad, A., 2016. EU LNG terminals still hardly used - GIE data. [Online] Available at： http://interfaxenergy.com/gasdaily/article/20360/eus-lng-terminals-are-much-needed-but-little-used [Accessed 5 March 2017]. 34. Wood Mackenzie, 2016. Europe falls in love with cheap Russian gas： Europe gas markets long-term outlook H2 2016. Press Release： Wood Mackenzie. 35. Wood Mackenzie, 2017. Key pipe exporter updates. [Online] Available at： https://www.woodmac.com/ [Accessed 15 February 2017].

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執筆者紹介

Sangeeta Jordan（サンギータ ジョーダン） ［学歴］Australian National University, BA in Asian Studies Hokkaido University, MSc in Agricultural Economics Hokkaido University, PhD in Bioresources and Product Science ［職歴］2015年10月、JOGMECロンドン事務所調査員（石油・天然ガス部門）となり、現在に至る。

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