Climate Variability, Asset Adaptation and Rural Livelihoods in Mtubatuba, Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa
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CLIMATE VARIABILITY, ASSET ADAPTATION AND RURAL LIVELIHOODS IN MTUBATUBA, KWAZULU-NATAL, SOUTH AFRICA Nomfundo Patricia Sibiya Student number: 573380 A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Supervised by: Professor Mulala Danny Simatele Signed on 14 May 2019 in Johannesburg DECLARATION I, Nomfundo Sibiya declare that this Dissertation entitled “Climate Variability, Asset Adaptation and Rural Livelihoods in Mtubatuba, Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa” is my own, unaided work. It is being submitted for the Degree of Master of Science at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg. It has not been submitted before for any degree or examination at any other University. Signed on 14 May 2019 in Johannesburg i ABSTRACT Climate variability and change are real and are happening now. In fact, if climate variability and change are not addressed urgently, it will affect most if not all the subsectors of the country. The aim of this study was to investigate the ways in which poor rural people of Nkombose, Ebaswazini, and Ogengele in Mtubatuba are affected by climate variability, and to understand the ways in which these communities are adapting to climate variability using the asset-based adaptation framework. The study utilised questionnaires to gather the various weather perceptions from the communities. Parallel to the human perceptions, the study reviewed meteorological data particularly to examine whether any climate variations have taken place in Mtubatuba. Furthermore, focus group discussions, listing and ranking matrices, and mind maps were used to determine the implications of climate variability on rural livelihoods. Lastly, semi-structured interviews were conducted with local authorities from the Mtubatuba Local Municipality to understand the municipality’s role in building the communities adaptive capacity and in responding to the impacts of climate variability. The research findings indicate that Mtubatuba like everywhere else in the world has been subjected to climate variability. Climate variability has presented itself in the form of droughts and severe thunderstorms. The empirical evidence suggests that the major implication of climate variability was the lack of water, which was attributed to inadequate rainfall amounts. The findings of this study indicate that droughts have resulted in reduced agricultural practices, increased livestock losses, reduced business and work opportunities. Therefore, this study demonstrates that rural communities depend highly on rain-fed agriculture to sustain their livelihoods. However, the study also established that the three rural communities are not passive actors as they are actively involved in developing ways of adapting to the impacts of climate variability. As such, the finding of this study suggest that the three rural communities depend more on adaptation strategies which are linked to financial, human, and social asset portfolios. Therefore, the local municipality and the government need to engage with the communities and make use of local knowledge as entry points in developing climate variability and change policy frameworks. Keywords: Climate variability and change, climate impacts, rural livelihoods, asset adaptation, adaptive capacity. ii DEDICATION To my Mother, Mrs Jabulile Sibiya, who turns 60 years on 4 August 2019. I am constantly in awe of your strength and resilience. Your support and belief in God’s purpose and abilities for my life is incredible. You are a true Proverbs 31 Women. Thank you for always pushing me to reach greater heights. I love you dearly. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my sincere gratitude to the following individuals and institutions: Firstly, to God be the glory for always being my light and strength. “It is of the Lord's mercies that we are not consumed, because his compassions never fail. They are new every morning: great is thy faithfulness.” - Lamentations 3:22-23 To the University of the Witwatersrand, thank you for the Staff Bursary, which made it possible for me to undertake and complete my studies. To my supervisor, Professor Mulala Danny Simatele, thank you very much for your invaluable mentoring. Your guidance and support has been remarkable. I learned a lot from you. Thank you also, for your patience and time. God bless you. To the South African Weather Service, thank you for providing the meteorological data. To all the research participants from Nkombose, Ebaswazini, and Ogengele, thank you for opening your doors and for letting me into your lives. To the three local authorities from the Disaster Management Centre at the Mtubatuba Local Municipality, thank you for participating in this study and for providing me with the information. To my parents, Mr. Fundakubona and Mrs. Jabulile Sibiya, thank you for your continued guidance and support. Thank you also, for playing a major role in raising my son, and for loving him relentlessly particularly in times when I have fallen short of fulfilling my role as a Mother. I will always be indebted to you. God bless you abundantly. To my son, Luthando Nzuza, I thank God every day for you. Just like your name, you are a true epitome of love. Thank you for your unconditional love. To my siblings, Sibusiso, Nomkhosi, and Kwanele Sibiya, thank you for being my biggest cheerleaders and for always supporting my dreams and aspirations. To Simphiwe Mbiko, and Angeline Zwane, and Shae Lazarus, thank you for your support and for lending me an ear particularly when the going got tough. Lastly, to my family, friends, and colleagues at the Wits Health Sciences Research Office, thank you for supporting me throughout this journey. I am extremely lucky to have you all in my life. God bless you all. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION i ABSTRACT ii DEDICATION iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iv LIST OF FIGURES viii LIST OF TABLES ix LIST OF APPENDICES x CHAPTER ONE - FRAMES OF REFERENCE 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Problem statement 2 1.3 Research Questions 4 1.4 Research Aims and Objectives 5 1.5 Theoretical Considerations and Literature Review 5 1.6 Research Methodology 7 1.7 Research Design 7 1.8 Data Analysis 8 1.9 Ethical Consideration 8 1.10 Organisation of the Dissertation 9 CHAPTER TWO - THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS AND LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Introduction 10 v 2.2 Definition of Key Concepts 10 2.3 Perspectives on Climate Variability and Change in a Global Context 14 2.4 Perspectives on Climate Variability and Change in sub-Saharan Africa 16 2.5 Perspectives on Climate Variability and Change in South Africa 19 2.6 Climate Change Adaptation and the Effect of Climate Change on Rural Livelihoods 21 2.7 Gaps in the Existing Literature 26 CHAPTER THREE - METHODOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS 3.1 Introduction 29 3.2 Recapping of the Research Aims and Objectives 29 3.3 Research Philosophy 30 3.4 Research Design 32 3.4.1 Description of the research site 32 3.4.2 Study population and sampling procedure 35 3.4.3 Data collection tools 38 3.5 Data Analysis 44 3.6 Methodological Reflections 45 CHAPTER FOUR - EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE 4.1 Introduction 47 4.2 Perceptions on how climate variability has manifested itself in Mtubatuba 47 4.3 Perceived impacts of climate variability on rural livelihoods in Mtubatuba 54 4.4 Adaptation strategies adopted by the rural communities in Mtubatuba 59 4.4.1 Communities adaptation strategies against the impacts of droughts 61 4.4.2 Communities adaptation strategies against the impacts of vi Severe thunderstorms 73 4.4.3 Adaptation strategies offered to the three research sites by the Mtubatuba Local Municipality 74 CHAPTER FIVE –DISCUSSION 5.1 Introduction 77 5.2 Climate change: an existing and persistent phenomenon in Mtubatuba 77 5.3 The adverse impacts of climate variability on rural communities in Mtubatuba 79 5.4 Assets for climate variability adaptation in Mtubatuba 84 5.5 The wider implications of the findings of this study 88 CHAPTER SIX – CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 6.1 Introduction 91 6.2 Summary of key findings of the research and the conclusion 91 6.3 Recommendations for building an adaptive capacity towards climate variability 93 6.4 Study Limitations and Recommendations for future research 95 PERSONAL COMMUNICATION 96 REFERENCES 98 APPENDICES 136 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 3.1: Location of the three research sites in Mtubatuba 34 Figure 4.1: Extreme weather events observed in three research sites 49 Figure 4.2: Extreme weather events observed in Mtubatuba 50 Figure 4.3: Average rainfall amounts in Mtubatuba 52 Figure 4.4: Average minimum and maximum temperatures in Mtubatuba 53 Figure 4.5: The effects of lack of water attributed to droughts 56 Figure 4.6: The effects of lack of water attributed to droughts 57 Figure 4.7: Mealies and sugarcane field 58 Figure 4.8: Assets identified by communities 60 Figure 4.9: Water resources in the three research sites 61 Figure 4.10: Household assets for adaptation 69 Figure 4.11: Percentage use of each asset portfolio 70 Figure 4.12: Chickens kept for selling purposes in Nkombose 71 Figure 4.13: Research participants using human resources to adapt 72 Figure 5.1: Article published in the Daily Sun 80 Figure 5.2: The effects of droughts on farming and planting 81 Figure 5.3: The effects of droughts on livestock production 83 Figure 5.4: Adaptive capacity of individuals with and without capital 85 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: The five fundamental assets 12 Table 3.1: Sample size calculation for each research site 37 Table