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Reliance Industries India Equity Research Oil & Gas May 1, 2021 RELIANCE INDUSTRIES RESULT UPDATE KEY DATA Wire-less present; gas for future Rating HOLD Sector relative Neutral Price (INR) 1,996 12 month price target (INR) 2,105 Reliance Industries’ (RIL) Q4FY21 EBITDA of INR234bn (up 7.2% YoY, Market cap (INR bn/USD bn) 13,290/179.3 8.3% QoQ) came 2.1% below estimate and PAT of INR124bn (up 17% Free float/Foreign ownership (%) 50.9/24.2 What’s Changed YoY, down 6% QoQ) missed estimate by huge 6.8%. Main driver, RJio’s Target Price ⚊ PAT attributable to RIL fell 3% YoY due to 33% stake sale and grew only Rating/Risk Rating ⚊ 2% QoQ. O2C contributed higher 69% to PAT versus 65% in Q4FY20. QUICK TAKE While O2C and RJio missed, retail beat forecasts. Upstream was a big Above In line Below positive as large satellite field started production ahead of schedule. Profit We believe gas will be a key driver contributing INR100bn to EBITDA Margins Revenue Growth by FY24E. Reiterate our “Deja Vu” ‘HOLD’ with unchanged TP of Overall INR2,105. We argue that RIL’s FAANG-like valuation (particularly RJio’s) is misplaced as O2C and telecom make up ~70% of value. FINANCIALS (INR mn) O2C: All-time high petchem margin, but muted refining throughput Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E O2C EBITDA slid 8.8% YoY, but improved 16% QoQ. High PP, LDPE and PVC prices Revenue 5967430 4669240 7112499 9141140 led to all-time high margin, which offset muted demand during the quarter. Polymer EBITDA 882170 807370 1135735 1497087 Adjusted profit 3,93,540 4,91,280 5,39,113 7,58,335 demand continued to be buoyant led by growth in health & hygiene, e-commerce Diluted EPS (INR) 62.1 76.2 79.7 112.2 and FMCG. Refining throughput rose 3% QoQ, but fell 8.7% YoY led by utilisation of EPS growth (%) (7.1) 22.8 4.6 40.7 107.7% on channel restocking. KG-D6 satellite cluster gas production commenced RoAE (%) 9.3 9.1 7.6 9.7 in April 2021, two months ahead of plan. Combined production from R-Cluster and P/E (x) 32.2 26.2 25.0 17.8 sat cluster is expected to be ~18mmscmd. MJ fields will start from Q3FY23. EV/EBITDA (x) 17.0 18.8 13.9 8.4 Dividend yield (%) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 Muted retail EBITDA growth despite low base; slide in RJio ARPU While retail EBITDA rose 42% YoY, its EBITDA growth adjusted for INR5.34bn PRICE PERFORMANCE investment income narrowed down to 21% YoY. 94% of stores are now operational 2,325 53,000 versus 96% in Q3, but overall footfalls rose to 88% (75% in Q3). Grocery, fashion & 2,140 48,400 lifestyle registered all-time high revenues with strong traction in demand. JioMart 1,955 43,800 has been extended to 33 cities (23 in Q3) with total integrated stores at ~400. Rjio’s 1,770 39,200 digital service’s EBITDA rose 45% YoY (up 10% QoQ), but QoQ PAT was flat. ARPU 1,585 34,600 1,400 30,000 slid to INR138 (down 8.6% QoQ) due to removal of IUC charges. RJio’s net subscriber Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 addition was strong at 15.3mn (total 426.2mn). RIL IN Equity Sensex Outlook: Hugely diluted retail & RJIO PAT attributable to RIL; ‘HOLD’ Explore: Following 33% stake sale, RJio’s PAT attributable to RIL fell 3% YoY for RJio versus standalone RJio growth of 44% YoY. Similarly, 10% stake sale in retail diluted standalone growth of 45% to 30% attributable to RIL. While consumer-facing, RJio and retail optically contribute to half of RIL’s EBITDA, it falls to only 31% at attributable consolidated PAT level. We reiterate ‘HOLD/SN’ with TP of INR2105. Financial model Podcast Financials Year to March Q4FY21 Q4FY20 % Change Q3FY21 % Change Net Revenue 14,95,750 13,62,400 9.8 11,78,600 26.9 EBITDA 2,33,510 2,17,820 7.2 2,15,660 8.3 Corporate access Video Adjusted Profit 1,24,300 1,06,150 17.1 1,32,220 (6.0) Diluted EPS (INR) 19.3 16.7 15.2 20.5 (6.0) Jal Irani Pranav Kshatriya Shubham Mittal +91 (22) 6620 3087 +91 (22) 4040 7495 +91 (22) 4063 5459 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited RELIANCE INDUSTRIES Financial Statements Income Statement (INR mn) Balance Sheet (INR mn) Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Total operating income 59,67,430 46,69,240 71,12,499 91,41,140 Share capital 63,392 64,450 67,616 67,616 Gross profit 19,15,030 17,42,230 19,96,000 26,08,699 Reserves 44,69,920 70,36,530 77,05,708 84,41,357 Employee costs 1,40,750 1,48,170 1,48,637 1,67,594 Shareholders funds 45,33,312 71,00,980 77,73,324 85,08,973 Other expenses 8,92,110 7,86,690 7,11,628 9,44,018 Minority interest 80,160 1,27,314 1,64,700 2,11,303 EBITDA 8,82,170 8,07,370 11,35,735 14,97,087 Borrowings 32,95,250 24,53,280 21,99,633 20,42,696 Depreciation 2,22,030 2,65,720 3,31,090 3,99,717 Trade payables 9,67,990 10,88,970 10,10,439 11,59,986 Less: Interest expense 2,20,270 2,11,890 1,89,456 2,00,986 Other liabs & prov 24,67,290 21,26,426 18,15,512 21,61,183 Add: Other income 1,39,560 1,63,270 1,49,516 1,81,628 Total liabilities 1,16,59,152 1,32,12,120 1,32,78,758 1,43,99,291 Profit before tax 5,79,430 4,93,030 7,64,705 10,78,011 Net block 43,59,200 45,10,660 45,95,948 46,55,054 Prov for tax 1,37,260 17,220 1,93,366 2,73,074 Intangible assets 9,67,380 9,01,920 16,16,709 16,18,617 Less: Other adj 0 0 0 0 Capital WIP 10,91,060 12,59,530 1,70,479 1,70,479 Reported profit 4,37,980 4,34,860 5,39,113 7,58,335 Total fixed assets 64,17,640 66,72,110 63,83,137 64,44,151 Less: Excp.item (net) 0 0 0 0 Non current inv 20,38,520 21,23,820 18,58,520 18,58,520 Adjusted profit 3,93,540 4,91,280 5,39,113 7,58,335 Cash/cash equivalent 10,38,350 16,98,430 24,67,365 31,87,923 Diluted shares o/s 6,339 6,445 6,762 6,762 Sundry debtors 1,96,560 1,90,140 2,19,183 2,55,937 Adjusted diluted EPS 62.1 76.2 79.7 112.2 Loans & advances 2,24,010 25,490 6,86,403 8,16,591 DPS (INR) 6.5 7.0 8.8 16.5 Other assets 17,44,072 25,02,130 18,44,111 20,16,130 Tax rate (%) 23.7 3.5 25.3 25.3 Total assets 1,16,59,152 1,32,12,120 1,32,78,758 1,43,99,291 Important Ratios (%) Free Cash Flow (INR mn) Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Brent prices ($/bbl) 60.9 44.8 62.0 65.0 Reported profit 4,37,980 4,34,860 5,39,113 7,58,335 GDP (YoY %) 4.8 (6.5) 7.5 6.0 Add: Depreciation 2,22,030 2,65,720 3,31,090 3,99,717 USD/INR (average) 70.7 75.0 73.0 72.0 Interest (net of tax) 1,68,091 2,04,489 1,41,549 1,50,074 EBITDA margin (%) 14.8 17.3 16.0 16.4 Net profit margin (%) 6.6 10.5 7.6 8.3 Less: Changes in WC 5,06,678 643,219 5,03,667 1,15,932 Revenue growth (% YoY) 5.2 (21.8) 52.3 28.5 Operating cash flow 9,80,970 2,61,850 15,39,504 14,61,988 EBITDA growth (%) YoY) 5.1 (8.5) 40.7 31.8 Less: Capex 7,65,170 10,58,370 9,67,886 4,60,731 Adj. profit growth (%) (0.6) 24.8 9.7 40.7 Free cash flow 2,15,800 (7,96,520) 5,71,618 10,01,257 Assumptions (%) Key Ratios Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Year to March FY20A FY21E FY22E FY23E Dom Gas Prod -mmscmd 1.7 5.0 12.0 22.0 RoE (%) 9.3 9.1 7.6 9.7 Petch EBITDA(USD/ mt) 137 84 138 156 RoCE (%) 10.6 8.0 9.6 12.2 ARPU (INR) 126.9 143.1 157.4 177.4 Inventory days 64 97 59 51 Chemical prod (mmt) 31.6 32.5 33.4 36.3 Receivable days 15 15 11 9 Retail Area(mn sq ft) 28.7 31.6 37.9 45.5 Payable days 92 128 75 61 Number of stores 11,784 12,962 15,555 18,666 Working cap (% sales) 8.2 14.2 7.1 1.6 RJIO subcribers(mn) 387.5 426.2 478.2 506.2 Gross debt/equity (x) 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 GRM ($/bbl) 8.9 6.2 7.7 9.0 Net debt/equity (x) 0.5 0.1 0.0 (0.1) Ref.
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