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RELIANCE INDUSTRIES Upcoming Asset Monetisation to Trigger Significant Value RESULT UPDATE RELIANCE INDUSTRIES Upcoming asset monetisation to trigger significant value India Equity Research| Oil, Gas and Services In a key development, Reliance Industries (RIL) announced the transfer EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS and eventual sale of its tower and fibre assets, which should lead to Absolute Rating BUY lower leverage and trigger value creation. For Q3FY19, the company Rating Relative to Sector Outperform reported 8.8% YoY jump in consolidated PAT to INR102.5bn (5.9% above Risk Rating Relative to Sector Medium INR96.8bn estimate). EBITDA rose 21.2% YoY led by another stellar Sector Relative to Market Equalweight petchem performance and sustained traction in consumer businesses. Key highlights: 1) petchem EBIT surged 42.9% YoY, in line with our estimate, due to healthy volume growth driven by the new gas cracker & MARKET DATA (R: RELI.BO, B: RIL IN) CMP : INR 1134 strong polyester margin; 2) refining EBIT beat of 17% was led by lower- Target Price : INR 1415 than-estimated opex with GRM in line at USD8.8/bbl; 3) while retail revenue soared 89% YoY, EBITDA tripled YoY; and 4) Reliance Jio (RJIO) 52-week range (INR) : 1,329 / 871 reported strong subscriber addition (up 11% QoQ). 5) Other income Share in issue (mn) : 6,338.6 M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 7,191 / 101,256 doubled QoQ due to sale of securities. Maintain ‘BUY’ with Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 8,531.9 INR1,415/share target price as we roll over to June 2020 earnings. SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%) Major value unlocking on the cards Current Q2FY19 Q1FY19 With the transfer and eventual sale of tower and fibre assets expected by March 2019, Promoters * 46.2 46.2 46.2 we expect value creation as: 1) past demergers (RIL-RCOM in 2005, Adani Enterprises MF's, FI's & BK’s 11.6 11.6 11.3 in 2018 and Arvind group companies) have created over 40% value; 2) it is likely that FII's 23.8 23.8 23.9 RIL has lined up strategic buyers for eventual monetisation; and 3) a sale would lead to Others 18.4 18.4 18.6 ~33% dip in debt with over INR1tn debt locked up in these assets. : * Promoters pledged shares NIL (% of share in issue) Consumer and petchem shine; lower opex offsets lower GRM Lower opex led to refining EBIT declining by just 5% despite 7% fall in GRM. With ROGC PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) and ethane imports exceeding 100% utilisation, petchem margin remained stable. EW O & G Stock Nifty Retail margin expanded to 4.7% led by strong LFL growth of ~20% and robust store Index additions. RJIO’s revenue market share rose to 36.7% with another 28.7mn net 1 month 0.0 2.3 2.7 subscriber additions and stable ARPU at INR130. In a welcome move, capex declined 3 months 0.9 5.5 2.4 QoQ to INR270bn and is expected to continue on this trajectory in the future. 12 months 17.1 1.3 (18.9) Outlook and valuations: Triggers aplenty; retain ‘BUY’ A demerger of non-core telecom assets could prove to be a game changer—in one go, RIL deleverages sharply, while also monetising these assets potentially at a large premium to book value. With the petcoke gasifier on schedule for March 2019 and an imminent FTTH roll out, there are multiple triggers for an upside. We maintain ‘BUY’ with TP of INR 1415/share. Financials (Consolidated) (INR bn) Year to March Q3FY19 Q3FY18 YoY % Q2FY19 QoQ % FY18 FY19E FY20E Jal Irani Net revenue 1,603 1,025 56.4 1,460 9.8 3,917 5,416 6,078 +91 22 6620 3087 EBITDA 211 156 35.6 207 2.2 642 811 1,071 [email protected] Adjusted Profit 95 81 17.4 95 0.6 361 408 537 Vijayant Gupta +91 22 4040 7402 Adjusted Diluted EPS 15.0 12.8 17.4 14.9 0.6 60.9 68.8 90.7 [email protected] Diluted P/E (x) 18.9 16.7 12.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 13.1 11.6 8.5 ROAE (%) 12.8 13.0 15.1 January 17, 2019 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited Oil, Gas and Services Table 1: We expect PAT CAGR of 20%+ till FY23 (INR bn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E Segmental EBITDA Petrochemical EBITDA 137 165 259 337 392 438 459 477 Refining EBITDA 267 286 290 256 323 390 386 363 India E&P EBITDA 29 28 29 39 65 91 126 161 Shale Gas EBITDA 15 13 24 31 32 34 36 38 Retail EBITDA 9 12 24 46 82 110 144 174 Telco EBITDA 0 0 67 153 227 311 369 411 Consolidated EBITDA 417 462 642 811 1,071 1,323 1,469 1,573 Consolidated net profit, RHS 300 299 361 408 537 679 768 826 Net profit (ex Telco) 300 299 354 377 489 606 683 737 PAT growth (YoY) 26% 0% 21% 13% 32% 26% 13% 7% PAT growth (CAGR over FY18) 13% 22% 23% 21% 23% EBITDA growth (CAGR over FY18) 24% 27% 26% 22% 24% Source: Edelweiss research Chart 1: 3QFY19 EBIDTA growth drivers: Petchem surged, followed by RJIO and retail 22,628 1,416 427 38 1,074 19,059 2,581 1,113 3Q FY18 R&M Petchem Oil & Gas Retail Digital Others 3Q FY19 Services Source: Company, Edelweiss research RJIO: Another quarter of robust growth ARPU and subscriber additions RJIO reported revenues at 12% QoQ revenue growth led by 28mn subscriber addition with ARPU of INR130.0, in line with our estimate. The company added 28mn net subscribers (QoQ), taking the total subscriber base to 280.1mn. The pace of subscriber addition has slowed mildly. This may be due to the following reasons: 1) Change in Aadhar related enrolment for issue of sim cards. 2) Saturation of mobile broadband adoption in smartphone users. RJIO reported EBITDA margin of 39% (versus est: 38%), an improvement of 30bps QoQ. PAT came in higher at INR8.3bn vs estimate of INR7.7bn, an increase of 22% QOQ. 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited Reliance Industries Wireless data traffic continued to rise and stood at 8.6bn GBs and voice traffic during the quarter stood at 63.4bn minutes. JioGigaFiber: Customers across 1,400 plus cities have evinced interest in availing JioGigaFiber services since the start of registrations. Fibre and tower units to be demerged RJIO will hive off its tower and fiber assets in to a separate subsidiary with an aim of monetising these assets to reduce leverage on RJIO’s balance sheet. This is a strategic shift in the company’s plans as it had earlier indicated that it will not want to share its passive infrastructure with competitors due to strategic significance. The company has not shared the details of the transaction, but we believe significant portion of RJIO’s INR1,162bn fixed asset investments as on Sep’18 will be towards tower and fiber assets. We believe sharing of infrastructure is positive for the telecom industry as it will reduce the time to market for other players, while lowering overall capex requirements. We believe this step will significantly reduce capital employed in the RJIO business, boosting the return ratios. While RJIO may get a material premium to its current book value, the upside may be capped as: 1) the industry has excess capacity; 2) RJIO’s towers will have lower tenancy ratio than competition; 3) potential to meaningfully increase tenancy ratio is unlikely as Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea have already given first right of refusal to existing tower companies. The company will provide more clarity in Q4FY19. Key takeaways ARPU and subscriber addition Subscriber addition was impacted by Supreme Court’s decision cancelling Aadhaar- based authentication. This led to disruption for 15-20 days mostly in November. Pace of subscriber addition is now back to normal. RJIO has gained 70% market share in the smartphone segment. Marginal decline in ARPU was due to introduction of Monsoon Hungama offer; smartphone ARPU were broadly stable. MNP adoption is picking up. Jio Apps Strong traction with JioTV and other entertainment apps. Has upgraded MyJio app to include commerce elements. Launch of integrated JioSaavn music app during the quarter; highest engagement among any music app in India. Strong data consumption is across customer segments and geographies. >70% of network data is video. Loyalty programme is also being rolled out. Has enhanced content on JioCinema app. 3 Edelweiss Securities Limited Oil, Gas and Services Network Should reach 99% population coverage in next three-four months; reaching many towns for the first time, which is contributing positively to the subscriber base. Network opex is increasing due to rise in coverage; operating leverage will start kicking in on network expansion completion. Post completion of 99% population coverage, capex will be targeted largely towards capacity improvement through infill sights, small cell, WiFi, etc. RJIO’s Q3FY19 capex at INR140bn. FTTH and Jio Home Automation services Very close to full launch of FTTH services; will be offering full suite of services such as Voice Assistant, Home Automation, Security, Elderly/ Kids Care, Smart Safety. Will be looking to reach 50mn subscribers. Waiting for CCI approval before meaningfully start engaging with Den and Hathway. We believe, RJIO’s increasing traction in subscriber addition, usage matrix and relatively stable ARPU indicate that customers are seeing good value in RJIO’s offerings. Given its focus on subscriber addition, it may look at maintaining current pricing, which is helping gain subscriber market share.
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