Market Perspectives of Ground Segment As a Service (Gsaas)

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Market perspectives of Ground Segment as a Service (GSaaS)

Research Paper

Published at the 71th International Astronautical Congress (IAC) – the Cyber Edition 2020 (IAC-20,B6,1,5,x60462)

October 2020

www.pwc.fr/space

Contents

Acronyms ...... 4 Abstract ...... 5 Introduction ...... 6

Context and paper description ...... 6

Methodology and caveats ...... 6

Preamble ...... 6 1.3.1 Defining Ground Segment activities ...... 6 1.3.2 Ground Segment value chain ...... 6 1.3.3 The model “as a Service” ...... 7

Genesis of Ground Segment as a Service ...... 7 1.4.1 GS activities require investment and time ...... 7 1.4.2 GS activities have been outsourced for decades ...... 8 Ground Segment as a Service today ...... 8

GSaaS Service definition ...... 8

GSaaS demand ...... 9

GSaaS supply ...... 10 2.3.1 Differences in ground station ownership and coverage ...... 10 2.3.2 Comparison of selected GSaaS suppliers...... 11

Matching supply with demand ...... 11 2.4.1 Pricing ...... 11 2.4.2 Ground station performance and service quality ...... 12 2.4.3 Service extensiveness ...... 13 2.4.4 Other criteria ...... 14 Market perspectives of GSaaS ...... 14

Potential evolutions on the demand side ...... 14 3.1.1 New entity types ...... 14 3.1.2 New mission types ...... 15 3.1.3 Security-driven satellite operators ...... 16

Potential evolutions on the supply side ...... 16 3.2.1 Enhanced and new services provided by GSaaS providers ...... 16 3.2.2 Partnerships between GSaaS providers and other companies ...... 16

Technological and regulatory evolutions ...... 17 3.3.1 Evolution of technologies ...... 17 3.3.2 Evolution of licensing regulation ...... 19

Summary of drivers influencing the market ...... 20

Evolution of barriers to entry in the GSaaS market ...... 20 Conclusion ...... 21 Acknowledgements ...... 21 References ...... 22

Acronyms

aaS as a Service ADS-B Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast

AI Artificial Intelligence AIS Automated Identification System

API Application Programming Interface AWS Amazon Web Services

CAPEX Capital Expenditure CELP Colombo-Ecuadorian Lunar Program

CONOPS Concept of Operations DoD Department of Defence

DSA Deep Space Antenna EO Earth Observation

EXA Ecuadorian Space Agency FCC Federal Communications Commission

FPA Flat Panel Antennas GAC Global Affairs Canada

GEO Geosynchronous GS Ground Segment

GSaaS Ground Segment as a Service HA High Availability IoD In-orbit Demonstration IoV In-orbit Validation ISP Innovation, Internet Service Providers ITU International Telecommunication Union KSAT Kongsberg Satellite Service LCT Laser Communication Terminals LEO Low-Earth Orbit LEOP Launch and Early Orbit Phase NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NRT Near-Real Time OPEX Operational Expenditure PoC Proof of Concept RF Radio Frequency RSSSA Remote Sensing Space Systems Act SSC Swedish Space Corporation TT&C Telemetry Tracking and Control UHF Ultra High Frequency USAF US Air Force USGS United States Geological Survey VHF Very High Frequency VHR Very High Resolution VPC Virtual Private Cloud

Abstract The emergence of NewSpace has led to a surge in new satellite operators entering the market. In order to offer the best service to their customers, these operators need to communicate with their satellites, relying on an effective ground segment. The latter requires specific expertise and infrastructure, as well as significant resources – both human and financial. Yet, these new satellite operators do not always have the experience, the capital or the willingness to invest in their own ground segment – risking a financial overkill for their project. Satellite operators are thus looking for a ground segment sold “as a service”, to flexibly and efficiently communicate with their satellite without having to invest upfront in a wholly dedicated ground segment or having to deal with licensing issues. However, until recently, there was no specific offer on the market adapted to answer these new needs. This mismatch between supply and demand created a gap in the ground segment market, which gave rise to a new type of offer: Ground Segment as a Service (GSaaS). GSaaS abstracts ground segment infrastructure similarly to Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) and cloud computing. Indeed, GSaaS mutualises ground segment infrastructure, relying on a network of ground stations which capacity is shared among different satellite operators. Thus, GSaaS acts as a lever that enables satellite operators to launch their business faster and to focus on their core business, which is, in essence, the provision of data. Acknowledging these advantages, new users, including public entities, have started expressing interest in utilising this service. The paper provides a comprehensive understanding of GSaaS, its current market and its potential evolution in the future. The paper first aims to present the context in which GSaaS was born. It then provides a definition of GSaaS, together with a state-of-play analysis of the current market, assessing both demand and supply. Finally, the paper offers perspectives on the market evolution. To do so, it explores the market drivers that could impact the GSaaS market in the future and assesses their potential impact.

all information available in this paper is based on Introduction research performed until Summer 2020 only. Evolutions in the market that happened since then Context and paper are thus not included in this paper. description Preamble At the end of 2018, news outlets specialized in space released several articles regarding new 1.3.1 Defining Ground business models in the ground segment (GS) Segment activities industry, especially after AWS announced the When thinking about space, most people first think creation of AWS Ground Station, offering Ground of satellites or launchers, but very rarely about Station as a Service. However, back then, AWS was ground segment. The latter is the sine qua non not the only actor proposing such a service: condition to operate satellites and ensure mission companies like Leaf Space or Infostellar had success for satellite operators (e.g. provision of EO already started to offer Ground Segment as a images, telecommunication and navigation signals, Service years before, and other GS incumbents like etc.). In order to communicate with satellites, SSC or KSAT had also started to offer similar ground stations are necessary. Located in various services. parts of the world, they support different types of However, since then, no official definition of Ground satellites, depending on their inclination and orbit Segment as a Service has been given. This paper [1]. For example, polar orbiting satellites need to aims at filling in this gap. connect with ground stations in the poles (e.g. Inuvik or Kiruna in the North Pole and Punta Arenas More specifically, this paper attempts to provide an or Dongara in the South Pole), which provides understanding of the context in which Ground rather long duration passes, enabling increased Segment as a Service (GSaaS) was born, describe amount of data downloaded. The ground stations GS activities and satellite operator’s pain points (1.3 are made of one or more antennas, that enable Preamble). The context being set, the document satellite operators to communicate with the satellite, provides a definition of the GSaaS, presents the sending telecommands and downlinking telemetries main benefits of the concept, and explains how (e.g. mission data, satellite status). This GSaaS answers to satellite operators' needs (2.1 communication is performed all along satellite GSaaS Service definition ). This paper also gives an lifecycle, from Launch and Early Orbit Phase overview of the variety of the current GSaaS users (LEOP), going through commissioning, routine and (2.2 GSaaS demand) and providers (2.3 GSaaS critical operations, up to satellite end-of-life and supply), but also lists the main criteria used by decommissioning. satellite operators to select a GSaaS provider (2.4 Matching supply with demand) An identification of 1.3.2 Ground Segment value the main market drivers that could influence the GSaaS market in the future is equally provided in chain the document. Drivers identified stem from demand In order to ensure such operations, a typical GS (3.1 Potential evolutions on the demand side), entails various infrastructure and activities that can supply (3.2 Potential evolutions on the supply side), be depicted using a value chain (Table 1: Ground but also technology and regulation (3.3 Segment value chain), made of three main blocks: Technological and regulatory evolutions). Finally, upstream, midstream and downstream as depicted this paper aims to determine the main barriers to below. entry in the GSaaS market (3.5 Evolution of barriers to entry in the GSaaS market) Table 1: Ground Segment value chain Upstream/ Midstream/ Downstream/ Methodology and caveats Infrastructure Operation Data usage Ground station Ground station Data storage Considering the limited information available, this development operation paper is based on observations and facts collected Data system Spacecraft Data pre- during desktop research and stakeholder development operation processing consultation with industry experts listed in Services based on Ground networks Signal downlinking Acknowledgements. Also, it shall be underlined that data analysis

The three blocks are detailed as the following: On the one hand, building, operating and maintaining a ground segment is an expensive ‒ The upstream involves all the hardware and endeavour that requires many resources including software components that enable mission ground stations (i.e. antennas, modems, land) and operations. It encompasses ground stations dedicated personnel with specific skills. Building (e.g. antennas, modems, radio, etc.) ground stations is particularly costly for high- construction and maintenance, development of frequency bands (requiring more expensive data systems (for ground station control, antennas) or satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). spacecraft control, mission planning and Indeed, satellite operators having satellites in LEO scheduling, flight dynamics, etc.), and the usually require a global network of ground stations ground networks (i.e. infrastructure necessary installed in multiple countries, in order to download to ensure connectivity among all operations GS data when and where they need it without having to elements), wait for the satellite to pass over a desired location. ‒ The midstream is composed of all activities that In addition, investments in specific infrastructure support mission operation. More specifically, it (i.e. servers, networks and power) are required to encompasses the operation of the ground process, store, and ensure transport data. In the stations, performs spacecraft and payload end, the cost of ground segment over the entire Telemetry Tracking and Control (TT&C), and satellite lifecycle can reach one third of the total cost the signal downlinking and data retrieving, for large programmes and can represent between 10 and 15% of satellite operators’ OPEX, according ‒ The downstream encompasses all activities to industry experts. Consequently, such important performed once the data is retrieved on Earth, expenses can make it difficult for satellite operators that include data storage, pre-processing (e.g. to invest in a wholly dedicated network. error corrections, timestamps, etc.), and all services based on data analytics. On the other hand, building a dedicated ground segment involves dealing with important regulatory 1.3.3 The model “as a Service” constraints, especially to get licensing for both space and ground segments. Licensing is key to “as a Service” (aaS) initially stems from the IT ensure that Radio Frequency (RF) interferences do industry, and more specifically from cloud not negatively impact satellite operators. Indeed, computing. Software as a Service (SaaS) is a well- satellite signals can be overridden by a rogue or known example of “aaS” model, where unlicensed system, which can jeopardize satellite infrastructure and hard, middle and software are operators’ activities and business. In order to handled by cloud service providers and made ensure such situation does not happen, licensing available to customers over the Internet, on a “pay- procedures are inherently demanding. Satellite as-you-go” basis. “aaS” offers various benefits to operators not only have to deal with licensing of the the customers, as it helps them minimize upfront space segment from the International investment while avoiding operation, maintenance, Telecommunication Union (ITU) – in charge of and other ownership costs. Customers can thus spectrum assignment – but also to deal with transform their capital expenditure (CAPEX) into licensing for the ground segment with the country in operational expenditure (OPEX). Considering such which they want to build and operate their ground benefits, “aaS” has recently become widely spread station. Though regulatory frameworks do not vary even beyond the IT world, and into the ground much from a country to another, some countries segment industry. sometimes lack transparency and clarity as regards to their rules, which can result in difficult procedures Genesis of Ground to follow. In addition to these, when missions involve Segment as a Service various stakeholders, each of them must hold a license for their respective elements, which adds 1.4.1 GS activities require complexity. Finally, licensing requires to pay fees that vary depending on country, bands used, license investment and time type (i.e. commercial or experimental), mission type In order to perform ground segment activities, and duration [2]. Thus, dealing with licensing can be significant investment and efforts are required to time-consuming, expensive and even sometimes build and maintain a dedicated ground segment, but cause delays in business development. The also to deal with licensing issues. example of KSAT and Planet in Canada between

2017 and 2019 shows how long acquiring licensing demanding satellites. Consequently, ground can be, especially when unclear licensing process segment services had to be more adapted to these exists, like the one resulting from the Canadian new needs. Remote Sensing Space Systems Act (RSSSA) [3]. 1.4.2 GS activities have been Ground Segment as a outsourced for decades Service today Considering all the efforts required to ensure ground segment activities, satellite operators have already GSaaS Service definition been outsourcing their activities to GS experts for decades. With New Space, the needs of satellite operators evolved: missions were shorter, satellite When satellite operations started in the 1970-80s, development time was dramatically reduced, and satellite operators were mostly large entities (e.g. the budget dedicated to GS was much smaller. The heritage space agencies, large satellite operators), GS services offered by incumbents were thus not looking to control their satellites using their own adapted, deemed too complicated (notably because ground stations. However, they quickly realised of international standards) and costly. that, in order to ensure regular connection with their satellites, they needed a global coverage of ground In order to fill in the gap between supply and stations. Acknowledging the difficulties mentioned demand, new GS services providers entered in the section above, satellite operators started to market, with the objective to offer New Space partner with GS service providers like SSC or KSAT satellite operators a simple, elastic and cost- as early as in the 1990s with the first shared effective way to communicate with their satellite: antennas, and in the 2000s (e.g. SSC created GSaaS was born. Prioranet in 1999). Borrowing concepts and methods of IaaS and cloud Over time, these GS service providers have computing, GSaaS abstracts GS infrastructure. To developed large networks of ground stations across do so, it mutualises GS infrastructure, relying on a the world, including in harsh environments, such as single network of ground stations in order to enable polar areas. These networks enabled them to offer satellite operators communicate with their satellites. comprehensive services to a wide variety of GSaaS is however not the first concept of antenna customers – whatever their satellite inclination, orbit sharing. Indeed, GS providers incumbents (e.g. (e.g. polar, LEO, GEO, etc.) or mission type. GS SSC, KSAT) were already exploiting “white space” providers could support their customers all along (i.e. spare capacity) of ground stations for decades the mission lifetime (e.g. routine, LEOP, already, enabling various customers to use the decommissioning), providing support not only for same antenna. Thus, though GSaaS concept TT&C and data acquisition services in various entails similar services as incumbents used to bands, but also for many other services spanning provide in the past, GSaaS distinguishes itself hosting and maintenance services (i.e. install, offering enhanced flexibility, cost-effectiveness and operate and maintain a ground station on behalf of simplicity: a satellite operator), licensing support (for space and ground segment), and data handling. GS ‒ Flexibility service providers would thus provide their GSaaS is a suitable solution for both satellite customers with a “top assurance level” offer. In operators that already have ground stations exchange, satellite operators would agree to (looking for complementary solution for commit for various years, and pay relatively high punctual support or backup), and the ones that price. Such price would enable GS service do not (looking for a reliable solution to ensure providers recoup the newly created ground stations. satellite contact). It offers GS services This premium offer was specifically designed for depending on the satellite operator’s needs, large satellite operators with unique and expensive providing on-demand but also reserved satellite, with complex mission requirements and a contacts. need for highly reliable ground segment. However, such an offer quickly proved to be unsuitable for New Space satellite operators that usually had less

‒ Cost-effectiveness ‒ Mission type GSaaS enables satellite operators to switch When it comes to satellite mission types, most their CAPEX to OPEX, enabling them not to GSaaS users are EO and Internet of Things invest upfront in a wholly dedicated ground (IoT) satellite operators. There are also segment. Instead, they can choose the paying technology satellites such as In orbit scheme that suits their needs the best, opting Demonstration (IoD) and In orbit Validation either for “pay as you use” or subscribing on a (IoV). EO satellites usually need to download as monthly/annually-basis. much data as possible and depending on their business, they look for near-real-time images. ‒ Simplicity They however do not necessarily need low The interface and API are designed to be easy latency (i.e. maximum time between satellite to use, to enable all types of satellite operators data acquisition and reception by the user). For (e.g. universities, public and private) control example, Eumetsat EO satellites in LEO have a their satellites. The API enables satellite latency of 30 minutes, which is enough to operators to interact with the ground station provide adequate services to their customers. network, determine their satellite parameters As compared to EO satellite operators, IoT and constraints, retrieve the schedule of satellite operator’s priority is more about operations, as well as all the data collected. number of contacts, and they look for low latency (down to 15mn for Astrocast for GSaaS demand example). They thus tend to select highly reliable GS that ensure satellite connection in a As depicted above, GSaaS was initially developed timely manner. Finally, technology satellites are to answer New Space satellite operators' needs. also very interested in using GSaaS as they do However, with time, GSaaS users became more not require extensive GS to test and diverse, including not only New Space actors but demonstrate the value of their technology. Once also more established players. GSaaS users can be technologies and concepts are validated, these characterized using various segmentations: satellite operators look to scale up and represent a true market opportunity for GSaaS ‒ Entity type providers. As of today, most GSaaS users are civil ‒ Ground station ownership commercial satellite operators. Undisclosed GSaaS users include for example Spire, Maxar There are two types of GSaaS customers: the Technologies, Iceye, Astrocast, Myriota, ones that own ground stations, and the ones Capella Space, NSLComm or D-orbit. In that do not. The first usually want to use GSaaS addition to these companies, public entities to complement their ground station network. have showed interest in using GSaaS as well. They can use it in a punctual manner, to answer For example, KSAT supports the US National to specific events (e.g. LEOP, catastrophes, Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), etc.), as backup ground stations (e.g. in case of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric a problem on one of their ground stations), or to Administration (NOAA), and the US Geological download more data. This is for example the Survey (USGS) for their ground case of Spire Global Inc. that uses AWS Ground communications. RBC Signals also signed an Station to satisfy growing demand by flexibly MoU with the Ecuadorian Space Agency (EXA) enlarging their ground network capabilities. The in the frame of the Colombo-Ecuadorian Lunar second almost entirely rely on GSaaS to Program [4]. Defence actors tend to be more communicate with their satellites. They protective using their own ground segment, sometimes partner with various GSaaS mostly for security and sovereignty reasons. It providers to guarantee continuity of service is however believed that they could also (e.g. Astrocast using both KSAT and Leaf become GSaaS customers in the future. The Space GSaaS services). United States Air Force (USAF) for example signed a contract with RBC Signals [5], and the ‒ Orbits US Department of Defence (DoD) contracted The need for GSaaS also depends on the orbit KSAT for support in satellite communication. type. Indeed, as compared to GEO satellite operators that usually need few ground stations

located in their targeted region to perform their 2.3.1 Differences in ground mission, LEO satellite operators look for a global coverage. Indeed, as satellites move station ownership and coverage around the Earth, they need to be able to In order to differentiate the solutions that GSaaS connect with ground station in different parts of suppliers offer, three aspects can be scrutinised: the world. However, in order to offer lower ownership, coverage and location of ground latencies, more ground stations are necessary, stations. which can be a major hindrance. For this reason, so far, a large majority of GSaaS ‒ Ground station ownership customers are LEO satellite operators. A first distinction can be made between GSaaS providers that own their ground GSaaS supply stations (e.g. Leaf Space), and the ones that do not (e.g. Infostellar). The latter can be In order to answer these new needs, and fill in this seen as “brokers” that use the white space market gap, new GS providers came into play and (i.e. available time for satellite started to offer adapted services to the new needs. communication) of idle antennas in already The family of GS service suppliers thus got existing ground stations. They thus cannot extended, involving a variety of new actors. It now always offer highly reliable or guaranteed includes new start-ups (e.g. Leaf Space, Infostellar, contacts, especially if they rely solely on their RBC Signals, Atlas Space Operations, etc.), IT-born partners’ antennas. companies (e.g. AWS) but also GS incumbents (e.g. SSC, KSAT). Building upon their experience in ‒ Ground station coverage satellite operation and leveraging their global As mentioned earlier in the paper, ground network of ground stations, GS providers station coverage is key to ensure frequent incumbents designed solutions specifically adapted contacts with satellites and offer recent data. to small satellite operators and large constellations GSaaS providers can also be compared with SSC Infinity and KSATlite for example. To do based on their ground station coverage on so, incumbents standardised their ground station Earth. Some providers indeed have a large equipment and configurations, and developed web- network (e.g. SSC owns and operates more based and API customer interfaces, notably to than 40 antennas in its global network and enable pass scheduling. The main GSaaS providers hosts more than 100 customers’ antennas) are mapped in the diagram provided below. and others have more limited network with Figure 1: Mapping of main GSaaS providers (as of Summer 2020) fewer ground stations (e.g. Leaf Space has a network of 5 operating ground stations and 3 being installed). Also, brokers usually have large network of ground stations. For example, back in December 2019, RBC Signals network was made of more than 70 antennas located in more than 50 locations [6]. ‒ Ground station location Looking at the number of antennas is not enough, and the location of the antennas is even more important, as it will determine the It worth noticing that the above map presents the capacity of the GSaaS provider to answer a companies’ headquarters, and not their ground variety of customer needs (i.e. depending on station footprint. All these companies indeed have a the satellite orbit and inclination). The global network of ground stations, as detailed in the example of AWS GS decision to change following section. their rollout strategy to adapt their antenna location to their customers’ needs is a good example of how choosing the best antenna location is key [7].

2.3.2 Comparison of selected customers with both shared antennas (used by various satellite operator) and dedicated GSaaS suppliers antennas (only used by a single satellite Beyond these distinctions, GSaaS providers can operator). also be differentiated by their offerings. The table From one satellite operator to another, all these below provides a comparison between various criteria are more or less valuable, as the following offers as of Summer 2020 and based on available section shows. information. Table 2: Comparison between the GSaaS suppliers Matching supply with AWS Leaf demand Criteria Infostellar Ground KSATlite Space Station Considering the diversity of suppliers, in order to VHF, Frequency Common UHF, S, select the offer that suits their mission requirements UHF, S, X UHF, S, band coverage freq., S, X X, Ka the best, customers have various criteria they can X use, that are summarised in the table below. Ground station Low Medium Medium High network Table 3: Criteria valued by satellite operators to select a GSaaS offer Autonomous No Yes No No Types of criteria Criteria scheduling Intensity of GSaaS usage Consulting Pricing Yes Yes No Yes services Commitment capacity Dedicated/ Reliability Shared shared Both Shared only Both only Number of contacts antennas Ground station performance and Security In order to compare these four actors, the following service quality Latency criteria were used, and can be understood as the following: Ground station location ‒ Frequency band coverage criteria depends on Autonomous scheduling the satellite application. For example, Ka/Ku Data storage Service band tend to be used for high-speed Data processing and analysis extensiveness communication, X band is usually used for Support for ground station development uplink and downlink, UHF is ideal for telemetry data, and S-band is ideal for telemetry but is “one-stop-shop” solution also used for uplink and downlink. Geographic preference and sovereignty Others ‒ Ground station network assesses the ground Maturity and longevity station ownership and the network coverage, as well as its reliability. 2.4.1 Pricing ‒ Autonomous scheduling is based on customer One of the most important criteria for satellite constraints and not on booking. With operators to select a GSaaS offer is the cost of the autonomous scheduling, GSaaS providers service. In order to select the most suitable pricing have the responsibility to schedule contact model that corresponds to their needs, satellite windows on behalf of their customers, based on operators can take decision based on two aspects: their constraints. This enables satellite ‒ Intensity of GSaaS usage operators to avoid having to book themselves whenever they wish to contact their satellite. Pricing can be performed by the minute (correlated to the number of minutes used), by ‒ Consulting services entail all additional services the pass, or on a subscription base (not GSaaS providers can offer, beyond correlated to the number of minutes/passes to communication services, such as support for be made). For example, as of Summer 2020, ground station development for example. the pricing per minute of AWS Ground Station ‒ Dedicated/shared antennas correspond to the would vary between 3 and 10 USD for capacity of GSaaS providers to offer their narrowband (<54MHz bandwidth) and between

10 and 22 USD for wideband (>54MHz 2.4.2 Ground station bandwidth) [8]. In December 2019, RBC Signals equally launched a low-cost offer called performance and service “Xpress” enabling X-band downlink, with prices quality down to 19.95 USD per pass, with a monthly minimum of 595 USD [6]. To choose the most Another criterion that is key in the selection of a suitable pricing scheme, satellite operators GSaaS provider is the ground station performance, must think about how intensively they will use together with the service quality. Both involve GSaaS. For example, satellite operators using criteria like reliability, number of contacts, security GSaaS punctually tend to pay per pass or per of communications and data transfer, latency (i.e. minute, whereas satellite operators relying time between the satellite acquires data and the entirely on GSaaS and looking for regular and ground station receives this data), and ground reliable contacts tend to subscribe on a regular station location: basis. In addition, for satellite operators that ‒ Reliability need to download important amounts of data, the “pay as you use” (i.e. satellite operators pay Some GSaaS providers can guarantee their for each satellite pass) can quickly become very customers with highly reliable satellite expensive at the end of the month. These communications (e.g. guaranteed passes, high operators thus tend to subscribe on a monthly number of contacts, etc.). However, other or yearly basis. GSaaS providers that do not own their own ground stations or have a limited network of ‒ Commitment capacity ground stations have more difficulties to offer GSaaS customers usually have two main ways such high reliability. Satellite operators to pay as they use, either reserving passes, or expected to use these less reliable GSaaS paying on-demand. Usually, prices go down as solutions are notably entities looking to the customer commitment level increases, demonstrate their technology. which explains why on-demand pricing is ‒ Number of contacts usually higher than reserved minutes. For example, AWS offers discount pricing if satellite For some applications, such as IoT, satellite operators reserve a minimum of 150 operators need to contact their satellite a certain minutes/month during a year, which is not the amount of times per day that are uniformly case for customers using AWS service on- spaced. Such service can usually be reached demand [8]. Deciding whether to commit for using dedicated antennas. On the contrary, reserved minutes or access to the service on- satellite operators looking for backup ground demand mostly depends on the capacity for stations or not having the necessity to satellite operators to communicate with their communicate regularly with their satellite tend satellite using other ground stations. Indeed, if to use shared antennas. satellite operators have their own ground station ‒ Security network and only use GSaaS solutions in exceptional cases (e.g. environmental disaster Security is another criterion that satellite requiring more EO images can push EO operators can value to select a GSaaS provider. providers to use GSaaS to download more Indeed, some satellite operators, such as data), they would tend to opt for on demand defence actors, need to download sensitive access to GSaaS, as can be hard for them to and/or valuable data. In order to protect this predict the number of minutes they will use the data, security of satellite communications must GSaaS service. be guaranteed by GSaaS providers. To do so, the latter invest in highly secured infrastructure, with end-to-end protection for satellite communications against attacks, especially cyber ones. However, security is not a key criterion for all satellite operators. For example, entities that perform Proof of Concept (PoC) or demonstrators do not see always consider security as a top priority.

‒ Latency ‒ Autonomous scheduling One definition of latency corresponds to the Autonomous scheduling is based on customer maximum time between satellite needs to send constraints and not on booking. Autonomous data and the user receives this data. It includes scheduling enables the customer to only time to wait for a satellite pass over a terminal, provide the GSaaS provider with a set of to transmit a message between multiple constraints together with an indication of satellites, to get a ground station in view, to capacity needs in terms of passes per day. It is download a message and to process a then the responsibility of the GSaaS provider – message. Latency is usually key in today’s using algorithms – to provide a 72h schedule satellite applications as customers want to have that satisfies both the constraints and the the most updated data available as soon as capacity needs. On the contrary, with booking, possible. However, latency criterion is highly satellite operators have to indicate time and dependent on the business. As we have seen location for passes, and the GSaaS provider earlier in the paper, EO satellite operators are books the passes accordingly (or sometimes not always looking for low latency, as compared the customer directly books the passes to IoT satellite operators. autonomously using an API), usually on a “first come, first served” basis. Depending on the ‒ Ground station location GSaaS provider, satellite operators can cancel Depending on the satellite orbital mechanics or reschedule their reserved contacts, up to 15 and on the mission type, satellite operators tend minutes prior to start for AWS Ground Station to look for GSaaS with ground stations in for example. specific areas. More specifically, satellite ‒ Data storage operators with satellites in polar orbits tend to look for GSaaS providers with ground stations Most GSaaS are interoperable with every major in polar poles. Whereas low-inclination or cloud infrastructure and data storage using equatorial orbits tend to look for ground stations cloud, as they only need connectivity to provide near Equator. For example, if the ideal ground such a service. The main difference between station location of a satellite operator is Japan, suppliers resides in the speed of data it will tend to look for the GSaaS provider with transmission from the ground station to the antennas located there. It worth noticing that storage location. Indeed, installing servers GSaaS providers that are brokers can be directly in the ground station enables to reduce particularly competitive on this aspect, as they this speed to the maximum. Various GSaaS benefit from a wide and extensible network of providers have opted for such solution, such as ground stations, though they do not guarantee AWS, that has the advantage of sending the contacts. Considering the importance of ground data right from their ground station to their station location in the satellite operator decision customer’s Virtual Private Cloud (VPC). This to select a GSaaS providers, the latter tend to can be particularly beneficial for satellite be very careful to install ground stations where operators wishing to process their data directly customers want to receive their data, even if the in their VPC. location is sometimes inconvenient (i.e. in harsh ‒ Data processing and analysis environments). Some GSaaS providers have the capability to 2.4.3 Service extensiveness provide their customers with data processing An additional criterion that can be valued by satellite and analysis services, in order to provide final operators is the GSaaS offer extensiveness, users with actionable insights. For example, meaning the capacity of the GSaaS provider to offer AWS Ground Station provides Capella Space a wide range of services. This criterion can be with AWS services to process their data in real- important in the eyes of satellite operators looking time, within minutes of satellite capture. This for a one-stop-shop solution. Indeed, such end-to- enables Capella Space final users in various end packages enable satellite operators to gain time sectors (e.g. agriculture, defence, etc.) to make and effort, limiting the number of providers while data-driven decisions and solve their problems benefiting from high-performant services: in a timely manner.

‒ Support for ground station development Eumetsat, highly reliable satellite communications are needed over time. This is GSaaS providers start diversifying their offer especially true when the missions are very long providing consulting services. Indeed, building (i.e. more than 20-year long), as the satellite on their internal know-how, some GSaaS provider must be sure that the GSaaS provider providers (e.g. Leaf Space, Infostellar, KSAT, will survive and/or will not be merged with etc.) can assist their customers in building their another company before the mission ends. own ground stations, managing licensing Satellite operators can thus be relatively aspects, ground segment concept of operations sensitive to the capacity of their GSaaS service (CONOPS), simulations and testing, and other provider to provide services in the long run, in technical aspects such as RF systems or digital order not to put their own business/activity at signal processing. risk. ‒ “One-stop-shop” services As some GSaaS provider partner with Market perspectives companies offering services all along the space value chain (e.g. launch service providers, of GSaaS satellite manufacturers, storage service providers, etc.), GSaaS providers can offer end- Studying the current demand, supply and matching to-end services to their clients, that can benefit between demand and supply in the GSaaS market, from a “one-stop-shop” service. Companies like it is interesting to wonder how the GSaaS market Atlas Space Operations or RBC Signals for could evolve in the future. It can be expected that example partnered with AWS in order to offer the evolution will depend on a variety of factors, data storage solutions to their end customers, coming from demand and supply sides, but also promising them reduced latency between the from other sources (e.g. technologies, regulation, data downlink at the ground station and the data etc.). processing. Potential evolutions on the 2.4.4 Other criteria demand side ‒ Geographic preference and sovereignty There are different factors that are expected to have Sovereignty is an important issue when it an influence on the evolution of the GSaaS demand comes to GS activities. Public and private in the future, including the interest from new entity satellite operators handling sensitive data tend types and new satellite applications. to be reluctant in using foreign private companies’ services and ground stations. 3.1.1 New entity types Indeed, industry experts mention that the regulation in some countries (e.g. USA, UK, So far, GSaaS demand has been pushed by private Australia) stipulate that data that was received entities but there is a possibility that other types of in these countries are a property of their entities – especially public ones – show increasing country. Thus, satellite operators that want to interest in having their satellites operated and their ensure their data sovereignty tend to favour data downlinked by GSaaS providers. GSaaS providers that downlink their data using ‒ Public entities – governments ground stations located in countries where the risk of the data falling into undesired hands is Governments could show more willingness to minimal. GSaaS providers capable of outsource their ground segment activities. This guaranteeing such service could have a trend is already observable in the US market, as competitive advantage. NASA recently announced its willingness to intensify the outsourcing of their satellite ‒ Maturity and longevity operation to commercial companies to exceed The service quality also encompasses the the current 67% of already outsourced maturity and longevity of the GSaaS provider. operations [9]. Also, we have seen earlier in the Indeed, this can have an impact on the GS paper that GSaaS providers like RBC Signals or service quality provided to the customers in the KSAT already provide US agencies and long term. For some satellite operators, such as departments with ground communications as a

service. However, this trend is mostly financial and human resources on space observable in the US so far. Indeed, US public segment or downstream activities. entities are culturally more prone to outsource However, emerging space agencies could their activities to commercial providers, in order adopt another strategy, deciding to favour to boost their private sector and enhance their capacity building instead of services in order to competitiveness at the international scale. develop indigenous space capabilities. Outside the US, institutions have not shown important interest so far. However, stakeholder 3.1.2 New mission types consultation showed that governments could Satellite operators with new mission types could decide to outsource their ground segment start to show interest in using GSaaS services, activities, at least for their scientific missions. including for lunar and deep space missions, for Indeed, in Japan for example, the public ground low-latency applications, for emerging EO stations are shared between different constellations or for large Internet Service Providers departments, and the scientific department is (ISP) constellations. sometimes left with a very limited amount of ground station. The scientific community could ‒ Lunar and deep space missions thus be the most interested in using GSaaS GSaaS applications could go beyond Earth offer in Japan. Other non-US space agencies orbit, to support deep space missions in further already outsource a part of their satellite orbits. Indeed, as the deep space is operations to private companies. experiencing commercialisation too, with Another reason that could push public entities projects like BlueMoon or Beresheet, GSaaS to outsource their GS activities to national providers could also potentially provide services private actors would be for economic and in deep-space mission operations. However, sovereignty reasons. Indeed, outsourcing their there are two main challenges that could make activities to national private actors could help this scenario possible. On the one hand, GSaaS them scale up. This could boost their private providers should have the capabilities to sector, while ensuring independent satellite operate these spacecrafts using dedicated operation. infrastructure including hardware and software (e.g. Deep Space Antennas – DSA, software to ‒ Public entities – military/defence entities enable flight dynamics, etc.) that are capital- Apart from the US, where companies like Atlas intensive. Indeed, considering the size and the Space Operations and RBC Signals already associated cost of DSA [10], such investment have governmental customers (including could be profitable only if the number of USAF), it is unlikely that military customers will missions supported is important enough. This use GSaaS solutions. They indeed tend to challenge could thus deter GSaaS providers prefer controlling their satellite operations end- from investing in such costly infrastructure. On to-end and to be more security-driven than cost- the other hand, it remains to be seen if space driven. However, military actors already use GS agencies that are today operating themselves services from some providers as a backup. If these missions will be willing to outsource these GSaaS providers can provide guaranteed activities. NASA already announced it wanted to security, military customers could possibly use increase its outsourcing including for lunar GSaaS solutions as well in the future. missions, and emerging space agencies like the Ecuadorian Space Agency (EXA) showed ‒ Emerging space agencies interest in collaborating with RBC Signals to Emerging space agencies could also become a ensure satellite communication in the frame of potential customer of GSaaS. Indeed, as these the Colombo-Ecuadorian Lunar Program. newly created entities usually have relatively ‒ Large Internet Service Providers (ISP) limited budget and have few satellites to constellations operate, they are not expected to invest in a wholly dedicated ground segment. GSaaS Constellations aiming to launch a very large could thus act as an enabler for emerging space number of satellites are surging, especially to nations that wish to kickstart their space provide internet services, such as OneWeb or activities and prefer to concentrate their Starlink. These Internet Service Providers (ISP) constellations have different needs as

compared to other applications like EO. They indeed are not looking for additional data or Potential evolutions on the backup solutions using GSaaS. They rather supply side tend to look for High Availability (HA) services, ensuring highest satellite communication using Factors like the number of partnerships stroke, the redundancy to offer reliable internet services. In longevity of the GSaaS provider, the capacity of order to answer these different needs from ISP GSaaS providers to offer new services, altogether constellation operators, GS service providers could influence the supply side of the GSaaS like KSAT or GMV have adapted their solutions market in the future. but are currently not providing GSaaS services. 3.2.1 Enhanced and new However, GSaaS could be potentially used for services provided by GSaaS ISP constellations, provided GSaaS providers adapt their service architecture of ISP providers constellations, ensure the scalability of their In order to answer the variety of satellite operators’ operations and processes, and increase the needs, GSaaS providers are expected to enhance speed (up to 100 Gbps) of their infrastructure for their current services, while also expanding their Tier 1 connection at gateways. In addition, offer to additional services. enhanced coordination with satellite operators would be needed to ensure efficient handover On the one hand, GSaaS suppliers are expected to procedures. Thus, if GSaaS providers succeed enhance their service quality. For example, they in adapting their offer to meet ISP needs, the could build larger networks of ground stations to latter could possibly enlarge GSaaS customer ensure NRT communications and enable low- base. latency applications to rely on GSaaS. GSaaS providers could also offer more secured satellite ‒ Low latency applications communications, building GS networks cyber- If GSaaS providers succeed in offering NRT secured “by design” to ensure their resilience communications, satellite operators offering towards cyber-attacks. services such as Automated Identification On the other hand, GSaaS providers could offer System (AIS) or Automatic Dependent additional services. For example, as LEOP requires Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B) that require global ground station coverage, satellite operators data that is less than 10 to 15 minute-old could have been outsourcing this activity to GS experts. show interest in using GSaaS services, at least GSaaS providers could offer such a service as well as a back-up solution. in the future, provided they have enough capital to 3.1.3 Security-driven satellite invest in additional ground stations, and enough demand for such a service. Parallelly, operators decommissioning is another critical phase that GSaaS providers could cover. Security is a key aspect to consider when it comes to GSaaS market evolution. Indeed, ground station 3.2.2 Partnerships between terminals constitute an important vulnerability as an access point to a satellite, which is sometimes GSaaS providers and other unprotected by authentication. The software companies installed on terminals can be compromised and need to be upgraded regularly to prevent attacks of In order to offer a more extensive range of services various types, such as signal jamming or spoofing and enhanced service quality – as described in the (i.e. to mislead the data transmitted). In addition, above section – GSaaS providers are partnering with the advent of reprogrammable spacecraft in with other companies. More specifically, there are orbit, operations will have to be even more secured. four types of partnerships between GSaaS providers and other companies that can be currently observed.

‒ Partnership with companies in other ‒ Partnerships with local actors to increase streams of the space value chain local footprint Various GSaaS providers have partnered with In order to easily build ground station in another companies in other streams of the space value country or to have a favoured access to the chain. For example, KSAT and RocketLab GSaaS market in that country (especially partnered together as the latter intends to offer governmental project), partnering with an satellite operators with support from mission aerospace company based in this country can services with their Photon bus, launch services help. This is what happened with the with the Electron launcher, but also satellite partnership between Small Spark space system operation services with KSAT [11]. Similarly, and Leaf Space in order for them to offer ground Leaf Space and GomSpace partnered in order station services in the UK. to enable the latter to offer a solution to its To conclude, these partnerships between customers looking not only for satellite GSaaS providers and other companies are manufacturing services, but also a solution to expected to be beneficial for all parties. On the communicate with their satellites [12]. Leaf one hand, it will enable GSaaS providers to Space also stroke a partnership with Alen offer end-to-end services to their customers, Space in order to offer a more complete service while making access to space easier (e.g. to their customers during the satellite reduced complexity, better efficiency, faster operational phase, by providing an integrated launch). On the other hand, most of these solution between Alen Space mission control partnerships are expected to be win-win. software and Leaf Space network. Consequently, these partnerships are expected ‒ Partnerships with experts in specific to boost the GSaaS market, enabling GSaaS domains providers to extend their footprint on a global scale while enlarging their customer base. Various GSaaS providers collaborate with cloud service providers. For example, Atlas Space Operations [13] and RBC Signals [14] partnered Technological and with AWS, in order to provide their satellite regulatory evolutions operators access to AWS Ground Station’s cloud computing infrastructure and associated There are other factors that are expected to have an services (e.g. data processing and distribution). influence on the GSaaS market in the future, Another partnership that worth noting is the one including aspects regarding regulation and new between Leaf Space and CYSEC, a company technologies. These factors are expected to act as specialised in cybersecurity. This type of enablers, to allow GSaaS suppliers adapt their partnership gives an idea of how GSaaS service offering to the satellite operator’s needs. providers intend to answer the needs of satellite operators that value security (e.g. military, 3.3.1 Evolution of private operators caring about confidentiality technologies and privacy aspects, etc.) in the future. New technologies are expected to have an ‒ Partnerships between GSaaS providers influence on the GSaaS market, especially as it GSaaS providers can partner with other GSaaS could enable GSaaS suppliers adapt their service providers, in order to enlarge their respective offering to answer their customer needs. These network of ground stations. This is for example technologies notably encompass optical the case between RBC Signals and AWS, communications, Flat Panel Antennas (FPA) or consisting in adding AWS antennas to RBC Artificial Intelligence (AI). Signals network of ground stations [6]. This is 3.3.1.1 Optical communications and specifically beneficial for both partners as their have complimentary locations. AWS indeed has intersatellite laser links antennas located in mid-latitude, whereas RBC As compared traditional RF communications, Signals has antennas notably located in poles. optical communications present various benefits Such partnership offers GSaaS users with such as substantially higher data rates, increased increased possibilities to communicate with security in data transmission but also the absence their satellites. of interferences or the absence of spectrum

licensing required. However, optical communication system for LEO and lunar and deep communications between Earth and space are space programs [4]. dependent on weather conditions, as optical beams Finally, the impact of optical communications could performance can be negatively affected by be positive for the GSaaS market, as it would make atmospheric turbulences. network operations more efficient and thus possibly In order to avoid such challenges while benefiting more profitable. This is particularly true for from all benefits, optical communications are applications that require to download big amount of increasingly used for inter-satellite links in space. It data (e.g. EO), but less true for telecommunication consists in having GEO satellites acting as relays, satellites because of the potential link unavailability communicating with user satellites with laser links. (due to cloud or rain). However, it should be noticed Such technology provides many benefits: that inter-satellite links will most probably result in fewer number of ground stations needed on the ‒ Satellites can push the data collected directly to ground, that will impact GSaaS current way of the GEO node, that is constantly connected to working. GSaaS providers will thus have to adapt to the ground. This enables almost constant ensure intersatellite link do not harm their business. satellite coverage, even when it is beyond the Therefore, industry experts believe that line of sight. Such system also enables satellite communication networks will probably be integrated operators to limit the number of ground stations with operational RF network in the future, in order to needed, ensure continuity of service when optical ‒ Depending on the Laser Communication communications are impossible to perform. Terminals (LCT), data rates can be very high (up to 1.8 Gbits/s), 3.3.1.2 Flat Panel Antennas ‒ Inter-satellite links offer capacity to Flat Panel Antennas (FPA) – also called Phased communicate with satellites for a longer period, Array Antennas or Electronically Steered Antennas which is key especially for satellites in LEO that – are computer-controlled array of antennas, that have low and short contact windows. create a beam of radio waves that can be electronically steered to point in different directions, Intersatellite laser links are currently notably without having to move the antennas (as compared provided by Airbus in the frame of “Space Data to classic dish antennas). Thought not new, industry Highway”, offering data rates up to 1.8 Gbits/s. experts consider FPAs are very promising, However, to benefit from such performance, especially for future mobility applications in maritime satellite operators need to carry onboard their or aviation for example. Indeed, their flat design satellite an LCT that is relatively heavy, and that makes them ideal to install on cars or airplanes. must be integrated in the spacecraft design from the FPAs present other benefits such as the absence of start. Consequently, only relatively large satellites mechanical parts that is expected to make (more than 500kg) are currently able to integrate configuration and maintenance easier. Also, FPA such LCTs in the future. In order to enable small are expected to make it easier to communicate with satellites to communicate using laser links, lighter various satellites simultaneously, as it could quickly LCTs weighting up to 15kg are being designed, and switch from one satellite to another. All these are currently being tested by SpaceX for their benefits pushed a variety of companies to start Starlink constellation for example [15]. In parallel of developing such antennas, such as Kymeta, these projects, various initiatives using optical Thinkom, Ball Aerospace, Telesat or Phasor. communications have been launched, especially for GSaaS providers like KSAT also announced their small satellites. For example, TESAT, KSAT and plan to install an FPA in Svalbard. Gomspace announced in 2019 their partnership in the frame of the PIXL project, to demonstrate the However, FPA present various downsides that potential of optical communications not only for prevent them from being widely adopted. First, they inter-satellite links but also for satellite downlinks for are currently very expensive as compared to smallsats [16]. KSAT also started to build their own parabolic antennas. Second, the design of the FPA optical communication network – with already one could make it hard to use them in harsh station in Greece – and look for missions for beta environments, especially polar ones. Indeed, testing. Another example that can be given is the installing such antenna under a dome would require MoU signed between RBC Signals and the specific domes to be designed and could Ecuadorian Space Agency (EXA) on an optical consequently be costly.

Some experts assert that, if FPA prove they can 3.3.1.4 Evolution in “plug and play” handle ten simultaneous connections to LEO capabilities satellites, their cost will not necessarily be ten times more expensive than a parabolic antenna [17]. They Currently, the capacity to effectively “plug and play” would thus become more competitive as compared ground stations remains to be seen. Indeed, some to dish antennas. However, the capacity of FPA to industry experts currently doubt that a single ground generate simultaneous multiple beams remains to station network is suitable to communicate with be confirmed. satellites having different frequencies or waveforms (i.e. modulation and coding) and such diverse Consequently, some industry experts estimate that mission requirements. It thus remains to be seen if FPA capacity will not be heavily used before at least the GSaaS providers will have the capacity to really ten years from now. When FPA technology is enable any satellite to connect with any ground proven, and their cost is low enough to make them station, using a software enabling true “plug and accessible [18], FPA could have a positive impact play”. on the GSaaS market, as they would enable GSaaS providers to track more satellites using less 3.3.1.5 5G and frequency bands antennas, while reducing their maintenance and interferences operation costs. 5G technology is expected to have impacts on the 3.3.1.3 Artificial Intelligence for data satellite communication in the future. On the one processing hand, 5G is expected to increase data rates up to 20 Gbits/s, but it is expected to cause major Artificial Intelligence (AI) is expected to be useful for interference for spacecraft already in orbit. This data processing not only in space (i.e. onboard could have negative consequences notably for EO processing) but also on the ground (i.e. for daily satellites (especially for satellites using the 23.8 operations). GHz band). Interferences could indeed degrade the In space, AI would enable data processing onboard, communication quality, leading to which would enable satellites filter data to only misinterpretations of results and thus resulting in downlink the most exploitable data to Earth (i.e. inaccurate weather forecasts [19]. On the other images not altered by other factors). For example, hand, as 5G satellite missions are expected to EO missions providing Very High Resolution (VHR) surge, which could represent potential demand for images currently require important bandwidth to GSaaS providers. downlink their heavy images. Antennas used for such applications are thus intensively used to 3.3.2 Evolution of licensing download important amount of data that will not be regulation all useful. This results in wasted communication time of the antenna. Using AI in space, images The capacity for satellite operators to invest in could be filtered directly onboard, which would lead dedicated ground stations will be heavily influenced to antenna time optimisation on the ground. by the evolution of national regulatory schemes. Consequently, AI in space could have a positive The latter today can make it hard for satellite impact on the GSaaS market, as it would allow operators to predict the date of completion and providers to use their antenna time in a more activation of their ground stations. Furthermore, optimized way, resulting in increased revenues and these delays vary from one country to another, as potential new clients. the licensing frameworks (i.e. procedures, fees, etc.) are not harmonized on a global scale. Such On the ground, AI could also be beneficial. Indeed, harmonization could make it easier and faster for as the amount of data downlinked on Earth is satellite operators to obtain licenses worldwide, and increasing importantly, AI could be useful to thus could facilitate the ground station building. automatize data handling. Such possibility would Industry experts consider that the Federal unlock new business opportunities for GSaaS Communications Commission (FCC) already providers, that could offer additional services such attempts to streamline and provide various paths for as data processing and analysis. GSaaS providers licensing, which is expected to alleviate various pain could then provide their customers with better end- points experienced by satellite operators. to-end services going down in the ground segment value chain (see downstream of the Table 1). However, if the regulatory framework does not evolve to adapt to the increasing satellite activity

(i.e. forecasts show increasing satellites operated in If technologies enable true "plug and play" the future), ground segment licensing could become capacity for antennas, GSaaS suppliers would be able to smoothly use the same ground stations for an even bigger hurdle for satellite operators that a greater variety of satellite operators wish to establish their own ground stations. In such GSaaS providers could leverage on current a scenario, it is expected that GSaaS providers and Regulation on complex licensing regulation to grow in the future, licensing GS service providers in general will benefit from this offering turnkey ground segment services situation having an extended demand. Finally, geopolitical conflicts could also prevent some countries to install ground stations in non-allied Evolution of barriers to countries. In this situation, these satellite operators entry in the GSaaS market could decide to use GSaaS solutions to get around this hurdle. In addition to the drivers that are expected to influence the market, different elements identified Summary of drivers earlier in the paper enable to identify potential barriers to entry to enter the GSaaS market as a influencing the market supplier. Considering all the drivers identified earlier in the As we have identified earlier in the report, the main section, it is expected that the following factors will barrier to entry identified is the building, have a positive influence on the GSaaS market in maintenance and operations of ground stations. the future and will contribute to its growth. This is indeed not just a hurdle for satellite operators to operate a dedicated network of ground stations. Table 4: Summary of drivers that could positively influence the GSaaS market It is also a hurdle for companies that would like to enter the GSaaS market. It is indeed capital Driver types Main findings intensive. This is expected to be enhanced by the New entity types could start to use GSaaS, arrival of new technologies. The important cost of including public entities – governments and new technologies like FPAs are expected to defence actors contribute to high barriers to entry as it will be hard Demand New mission types are expected to use GSaaS for new entrants in the GSaaS market to enter this solutions, such as low latency applications or

lunar/deep space missions market if equipment costs are prohibitive. Thus, GSaaS players mastering these technologies will Satellite operators valuing security could start to use GSaaS solutions if increased levels of security have a critical differentiator on the market, and are proven companies that do not will most probably have more difficulties to compete. Partnerships between GSaaS and other companies (either in different streams of the value Another barrier that could be important is one chain, providing GS services or providing specific related to licensing regulation. Indeed, as we have Supply expertise) could boost the GSaaS market, as it could enhance service quality or offer end-to-end also seen, dealing with licensing requires significant services time and effort. We expect that current GSaaS If GSaaS providers become more mature and providers having already established ground prove their longevity capacity, this could attract stations in various countries will have less new customers for whom long-term service provision is key difficulties to expand their network of ground stations. They indeed have experience, knowledge, Intersatellite laser link technology could have a positive influence on the GSaaS market if GSaaS and also contacts in different countries that providers start to use such technology to provide altogether makes licensing easier for them. This is highly secured and high data rated especially true for heritage GSaaS providers like communications to their customers, and adapt their ground infrastructure accordingly SSC or KSAT as they have long experience dealing New with such regulatory aspects. New entrants are technologies Flat Panel Antennas could positively impact the GSaaS market, as it would make ground station expected to have more difficulties as they will start operation easier and cheaper, while enabling from scratch. increased number of satellite communications The geographical preference can also be seen as a Artificial Intelligence could allow GSaaS providers to optimize their antenna time and offer new potential barrier to entry. Sovereignty issues may services in the downstream of the space value contribute to the conservation of rather high barriers chain (e.g. data processing and analysis) in the GSaaS market, as GSaaS suppliers will have to guarantee the sovereignty of their customers’

data. This will mostly affect GSaaS suppliers having from performant ground segment while ground stations located in countries where data concentrating their resources on their core ownership cannot be guaranteed to the satellite business. These new customers are expected to operators (e.g. US, UK, Australia, etc.) considering stem from different entity types – public and private, their legislation in this aspect. but also different mission applications. Also, security aspects may constitute an important To answer these new needs, GSaaS providers are barrier to entry for GSaaS providers that are not expected to increasingly listen to their customer capable of ensuring their ground segment resilience desires, providing more extensive networks of towards threats of many types, including cyber ground stations located in strategic areas, ensuring threats, they will have less chances of gaining enhanced security to customers requiring it, offering market shares. If current GSaaS providers continue more “end-to-end” services for customers looking to invest heavily in offering more and more secured for “one-stop-shop” solutions, etc. systems for satellite communication, the gap to To offer such services to their customers, GSaaS jump for new entrants is expected to be even bigger, providers are expected to rely on technical making it more complex for them to be competitive advancements and emerging technologies such as on the GSaaS market. optical communications, Artificial Intelligence or Flat Ultimately, the barriers to entry are expected to Panel Antennas. These technologies constitute a remain rather high in the future, but not impossible source of innovation capable to unleash the to overcome if new entrants have investment complete potential of GSaaS providers. capacities to build and operate ground stations with In order to significantly grow in the future and follow new technologies embedded, but also the an evolution similar to the one that IaaS knowledge to ensure secured satellite experienced in the cloud services market, GSaaS communications. It shall be noted that another providers will need to have significant volumes. possibility for GSaaS providers to overcome some However, it is not expected that all satellite of these barriers is to become a broker. In this case, operation activities will be entirely outsourced in the the constraint of having to invest in a network of future, for not only technical but also cultural ground stations is replaced by the need to design a reasons. powerful software for contact scheduling and to build a network of GS partners large enough to offer Finally, it seems realistic to imagine a cohabitation customers with a minimum service level. in the future between satellite operators using exclusively their own ground segment, satellite operators preferring to outsource their ground Conclusion segment activities to GSaaS suppliers, and satellite As the number of satellites is expected to continue operators being “hybrid” and relying on both growing in the future, especially with constellations, proprietary and outsourced GS. In the end, the GSaaS market is also expected to gain investing or not in a dedicated ground segment is momentum. GSaaS is indeed expected to continue expected to remain a “make or buy” decision, making access to space easier, acting as an thoroughly made by satellite operators. enabler for satellite operators that want to benefit Acknowledgements We would like to sincerely thank the following people and entities for their participation in the stakeholder consultation. They all contributed to enrich the paper with valuable insights. Thank you to Amazon Web Services Ground Station; Diego Vanelli from Airbus Defence & Space; Federico Belloni from Astrocast; Jean Marc Soula from Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES); Sean Burns from Eumetsat; Kaz Ishigame from Infostellar; Katherine Monson and Rolf Skatteboe from Kongsberg Satellite Services (KSAT); Jai Dialani and Giovanni Pandolfi from Leaf Space; Aurélie Domargård, John Stuart, and Iraklis Hatziathanasiou from Swedish Space Corporation (SSC); and Baptiste Fournier from Université Paris Saclay – CentraleSupélec.

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Elisa Carcaillon – author Associate, PwC Space Practice Mobile: +33 (0) 7 60 61 15 56 [email protected]

Berylia Bancquart – co-author Associate, PwC Space Practice Mobile: +33 (0) 6 73 75 63 04 [email protected]

Luigi Scatteia Partner, PwC Space Practice Leader Mobile: +33 (0) 6 42 00 71 67 [email protected]