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BREXIT BRIEFBRIEF

Brexit Brief Issue 34: 26 January 2018

Introduction Brexit Brief is published by the IIEA’s UK Project Group begin drafting the Withdrawal Agreement, which will and covers developments in the UK’s withdrawal from the include details of transitional arrangements, following the . The Brief seeks to provide up-to-date ’s agreement “to negotiate a transition information on the progress and content of the UK-EU period covering the whole of the EU acquis, while the negotiations, and bring together relevant statements and United Kingdom, as a third country, will no longer policy positions from key players in Ireland, the UK and EU. participate in or nominate or elect members of the EU institutions, nor participate in the decision-making of the The Brief is part of a wider communications programme Union bodies, offices and agencies.” The UK will be a covering the work of the IIEA’s UK Project Group – involving third country as of 30 March 2019. commentaries, speeches, texts and event reports – which will be highlighted on the Institute’s website. (www.iiea.com) The Council text makes an important reference to Ireland: “During the second phase of the negotiations, in view of the specific nature of issues related to the island of Ireland, Section One: State of Play the work on detailed arrangements required to give effect Phase Two of EU-UK Negotiations to the principles and commitments set out in the Joint Report should continue in a distinct strand, some of With the decision of the European Council that which would be translated in the Withdrawal Agreement, sufficient progress had been made in the first phase others in the framework for the future relationship.” of exit negotiations to move on to phase two, initial guidelines were agreed for drafting the formal Withdrawal On the transitional arrangements, the Council stated Agreement, based on the conclusions of the Joint Report that these must be clearly defined and precisely limited in of the EU and UK negotiators. time, that there will be a level playing field based on the same rules applying throughout the Single Market and The second phase will deal with the drafting and that “all existing Union regulatory, budgetary, supervisory, ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement, the judiciary and enforcement instruments and structures negotiation of Transitional Arrangements and reaching will also apply, including the competence of the Court of an overall understanding on the framework for the future Justice of the European Union.” The UK will continue to relationship of the Union and the United Kingdom. participate in the Customs Union and the Single Market The European Council, on 15 December 2017, called (with all four freedoms) during the transition. Appropriate on the Union Negotiator, Michel Barnier, and the UK negotiating directives on the transition arrangements are authorities to complete work on all withdrawal issues and to be adopted by the end of January 2018.

BREXIT BRIEF 034 | JAN 2018 BREXIT BRIEF BREXIT BRIEF 034 | JAN 2018

The Commission has recommended that the transition The General Factsheet states that “The Bill ensures that, so period should not last beyond 31 December 2020, far as possible, the same rules and laws will apply on the when the UK’s current EU budget commitments expire. day after exit as on the day before. This will provide the This time limit is regarded as ‘not even slightly long maximum possible certainty and continuity to businesses, enough’ by leading figures in UK business who argue workers and consumers across the UK – so that they can for a longer period during which the UK would still have confidence that they will not be subject to unexpected have unfettered access to the Single Market and to EU changes on the day we leave the EU.” The Factsheets labour’, in particular for SMEs which often rely on EU cover the following issues: converting and preserving law; workers to fill many skilled roles. There is also concern the correcting power; power to implement the withdrawal about the impact of uncertainty on corporate investment agreement; devolution; Charter of Fundamental Rights; decisions. The implications of an extended transition – workers’ rights; environmental protections; consumer or implementation – period are under active discussion protections; treaty rights; impact assessment; equality in Brussels, where many national representatives express analysis; European Convention on Human Rights; concern that complex trade negotiations after Brexit are equalities legislation and EU exit; employment and EU unlikely to be completed and ratified before the end of exit; the Employment Rights (Amendment)(EU Exit) the proposed period. Regulations 2018. A paper from the Research Service refers to the search for a common understanding on the Section Two: The Evolving Debate framework for future relations. This would take the form of a political declaration accompanying the withdrawal Varadkar at the European Parliament deal, since a full agreement can only be concluded once the The Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, addressed a plenary session UK becomes a third country. The European Council will of the European Parliament in Strasbourg on 17 January take decisions on key elements of this process in March 2018 as the first EU or Government to 2018. “Preserving the integrity and proper functioning of debate with MEPs on the Future of Europe in a planned the Single Market and avoiding disrupting relations with series. existing third-country partners will be key for the EU. While internal preparatory discussions are continuing He reminded his listeners that “it is hard to imagine the within the EU, the UK still needs to clarify what type of Good Friday Agreement being made without our shared trade deal it seeks.” membership of the European Union and the Single Market” but that “we are now having to contemplate our The European Parliament, whose consent is required for future without the foundation that underpinned it. That the conclusion of any withdrawal deal, has adopted a is why the Irish Government has been so determined to number of resolutions on the negotiations. The Resolution protect the Good Friday Agreement, in all its parts, and in of 13 December 2017 called for the commitments in the all that flows from it. It is why we have insisted that there Joint Report to be fully respected and translated into legal can be no return to a hard border on our island.” terms and set out five outstanding issues to be addressed further, covering citizens’ rights and ensuring that Referring to the ongoing EU-UK negotiation process, the commitments made with respect to Northern Ireland/ Taoiseach expressed thanks for the support received from Ireland are fully enforceable. the outset, and said that there could be “no backsliding” on what had been already agreed in principle. He made Withdrawal Bill clear that these commitments should “be in the legal text of the Withdrawal Agreement and firmly embedded in The European Union (Withdrawal) Bill – referred to as the the UK’s future relationship with the EU, whatever shape Repeal Bill – is making its way through the UK Parliament. that ultimately takes.” In connection with this process the Department for Exiting the European Union has published a series of In welcoming the Taoiseach, the Commission President, information factsheets outlining the elements of this Jean-Claude Juncker, noted the role of the Good Friday massive Bill. The Bill will convert existing direct EU law, Agreement in stabilising relations on the island of Ireland including regulations and decisions, into UK law as it and said that the EU would aim to continue its support applies in the UK at the date of exit. for the peace process in its proposal for a new EU budget in May 2018.

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole responsibility of the author. BREXIT BRIEF BREXIT BRIEF 034 | JAN 2018

President Tusk at the European Parliament with President on a programme of reform but, further, an expression of readiness to On 16 January 2018, the President of the European expand the EU budget, with a larger German contribution Council, Donald Tusk, reported to the European to fund economic stabilisation, social convergence and Parliament on the December 2017 European Council structural reform. The European Stability Mechanism meetings. The Council had adopted a first set of would become part of the overall, enlarged, EU budget, guidelines for the next phase of talks with the UK, having providing investment funding along lines advocated by decided that sufficient progress had been achieved on the the Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker. The first phase. agreement also contemplates an enhanced role for the His concluding words attracted much political and media European Parliament in democratising the Eurozone interest: which represents a divergence from the view in the Elysee, which favours the creation of a separate Eurozone As regards our future relations, what we need today is Parliament. more clarity on the UK’s vision. Once we have that, the leaders will meet and decide on the way the EU sees its The challenge of obtaining the support of the SPD future relationship with the UK as a third country. It membership for the agreed document was demonstrated also means a new set of guidelines. The hardest work is by the immediate response of the party’s left wing, with still ahead of us, and time is limited. We must maintain evidence that a significant number of the SPD’s 430,000 the unity of the EU27 in every scenario, and personally strong membership are not convinced of the merit in I have no doubt that we will. If the UK government backing a third Grand Coalition, pointing to the negative sticks to its decision to leave, Brexit will become a response of voters to the party’s participation in the 2013- reality – with all its negative consequences – in March 2017 administration. They fear that a further period of next year. Unless there is a change of heart among our governing with the conservatives would seriously weaken British friends. Wasn’t it David Davis himself who said: the party and some called for a renegotiation of some ‘If a democracy cannot change its mind, it ceases to be aspects of the document. However, defeat for the proposed a democracy.’ We, here on the continent, haven’t had a deal would have collapsed the coalition deal, raising the change of heart. Our hearts are still open to you. most serious questions about the country’s immediate political direction, and doubts about the political futures Germany of both Martin Schulz and . Germany’s centre-left party has agreed to coalition talks Emmanuel Macron on ‘bespoke’ deal for the UK with Angela Merkel’s conservatives after four months of deadlock. The Social Democratic Party (SDP) voted During a visit to the UK for talks with Prime Minister on Sunday, 21 January 2018 to enter into talks with Theresa May on defence cooperation, the French Chancellor Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU). President has spoken of key aspects of the EU-UK At the special party congress in Bonn, delegates voted by negotiations – the future of financial services and the 372 to 270 to approve a preliminary coalition deal with concept of a ‘bespoke’ deal. the CDU. The Party Leader, Martin Schulz commented: On access for the British financial services industry to the “We are relieved, the result shows that we had to fight for single market, he said it would have to obey all of the this majority.” EU’s rules. “I want to make sure that the Single Market All-night talks on Friday 12 January 2018 saw the is preserved, because that is very much the heart of the emergence of a 28-page blueprint for formal coalition EU. The choice is on the British side […] but there can negotiations which could end the long period of political be no differentiated access for the financial services […] uncertainty and avoid the possibility of a return to the it means that you need to contribute to the budget and electorate in a further . acknowledge European jurisdiction.” In his Financial Times analysis, Wolfgang Munchau, Addressing the idea of a ‘bespoke’ deal for the UK, the described this text as “truly radical” as it “lays out the President argued that, while Britain could not have full biggest push by Germany towards continental integration access to the Single Market – including financial services since the a quarter of a century ago.” access – unless it applied the full range of EU rules, there might be a halfway-house compromise, something There is confirmation of a general willingness to engage between full access and a trade agreement. But any

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole responsibility of the author. BREXIT BRIEF BREXIT BRIEF 034 | JAN 2018

deal would have to maintain the integrity of the Single UK Labour Party Market. “You can’t buy, by definition, full access to the An opinion poll for the Observer has put pressure on the Single Market if you don’t tick the box.” leadership of the UK Labour Party to shift its policy on Brexit, indicating that a substantial majority of existing Ireland and Brexit and potential Labour voters want Jeremy Corbyn to back A significant recent development in the Irish Brexit debate permanent membership of the EU’s Single Market and was the strong conciliatory gesture offered by the DUP Customs Union. The survey found that four times as Leader, Arlene Foster. While speaking at an economics many Labour supporters favour that option as oppose it. seminar in Killarney, she defended her party’s support The survey by Opinium also finds that more than twice for Brexit but said that she fully understood the concerns as many in this group want Corbyn to support a second of the Irish Government and people: “I appreciate that referendum on the eventual Brexit deal as reject it. nowhere will be more impacted by the United Kingdom’s The survey found that among all potential Labour voters at exit from the European Union than Ireland.” The the next election, 56% want the party to back permanent Taoiseach responded that the comments were welcome “as membership of the Single Market and Customs Union, Brexit is an ongoing challenge for the whole of Ireland.” while just 13% think it should remain opposed. Among An Irish Times editorial commented on the lack of clarity younger voters: 63% of all “young professionals” who are on how the UK plans to reach trade deals outside the EU, potential Labour backers were in favour, compared with while simultaneously meeting its commitment to avoid 10% who were opposed. Of “young blue collar workers” a hard border between the UK and Ireland: “All this who might back Labour, 61% were in favour of the lies ahead as we delve into phase two of the talks. The change against just 4% who were opposed. Significantly, Government won some important commitments during even among Labour voters who backed Leave, 37% said Phase One, but making them stick could be an even they want Corbyn to support permanent Single Market greater challenge.” and Customs Union membership compared with just 26% who did not. London on Brexit Impact Norway enters Brexit debate The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, entered the Brexit debate in a Guardian article in which he argued that “time The Norwegian government is reported to have made is fast running out for the UK government to secure a repeated representations to the Commission over concerns good deal from the Brexit negotiations that protects jobs, that the eventual ‘offer’ to the UK may prove too generous growth and living standard for future generations.” He and trigger demands for a renegotiation of Norway’s revealed the results of an independent study by Cambridge arrangement with the EU. Norway makes large financial Econometrics which concluded that “the harder the Brexit contributions to the EU and accepts free movement outcome we end up with, the worse the potential impact of people in order to have access to the Single Market on jobs, growth and living standards could be.” The study’s but without any input to Brussels decision-making. A conclusion on London was that a no-deal Brexit would senior Norwegian official was quoted as saying: “We are involve fewer jobs and a loss of economic output. “That following this very closely to make sure that we are not would mean fewer opportunities for the next generation giving the UK a much more favourable deal.” and poorer living standards than would otherwise be the case – a huge human cost to pay.” CBI and Customs Union The Mayor called on the UK Government to commission Carolyn Fairbairn, Director General of the Confederation and then publish –in full –their analysis of every single of British Industry, is warning the Government that time option available for Britain to avoid a ‘cliff-edge’ scenario: is running out on Brexit and urges the Prime Minister to “that means their analysis should look at what we put replicating the Customs Union at the top of the trade should do if we are unable to secure a good deal from agenda. She argues that the time has come for revisiting the negotiations, if the negotiations collapse, or if a final some of the red lines. “With the Customs Union, there deal fails to be ratified by either the British Parliament, have been doors that have been left open along the way. European Parliament or a number of EU member states.” Let’s take them because the business case, the common sense pragmatic case, for a Customs Union with the EU – negotiated effectively – is very strong. Let’s start with

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole responsibility of the author. BREXIT BRIEF BREXIT BRIEF 034 | JAN 2018

what we have. The EU has built up with the UK forty years of shared standards and regulations that have been very good for business […] let’s start with that position and move forward.”

Section Three Past events Tony Connelly, Brexit and Ireland: The Dangers, the Opportunities, and the Inside Story of the Irish Response. IIEA, 18 January 2018. (www.iiea.com/brexit/ brexit-ireland-dangers-opportunities-inside-story-irish- response) /

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole responsibility of the author. BREXIT BRIEF BREXIT BRIEF 034 | JAN 2018

23rd June 2016 The UK votes to leave the EU 2016Timeline - 2017

24th June 2016 David Cameron signals his intention to resign as UK Prime Minister

26th June 2016 European Council appoints Didier Seeuws as head of Brexit Taskforce

13th July 2016 Theresa May becomes the new Prime Minister of the UK

9th September 2016 European Parliament names Guy Verhofstadt as the European Parliament’s Brexit negotiator

16th September 2016 Bratislava Summit of 27

1st October 2016 Michel Barnier starts role as Head of EU Commission Brexit Task Force

6th December 2016 Michel Barnier holds first press briefing on Brexit, notes Northern Irish issues

17th January 2017 Theresa May outlines the objectives and principles for the UK’s withdrawal

24th January 2017 UK Ruling on Article 50

2nd March 2017 Northern Ireland Assembly . No new executive formed.

9th-10th March 2017 Re-election of Donald Tusk as European Council President

13th March 2017 UK Houses of Parliament pass the Article 50 Bill without amendment

25th March 2017 60th Anniversary of the Treaty of

29th March 2017 UK invokes Article 50

5th April 2017 European Parliament adopts resolution on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU

19th April 2017 Theresa May calls for snap General Election on 8th June 2017

29th April 2017 European Council adopts its guidelines for the Brexit negotiations

7th May 2017 Emmanuel Macron defeats to become President of

22nd May 2017 The General Affairs Council of the EU authorises the opening of negotiations with the UK

29th May 2017 European Commission releases draft position papers on Article 50

8th June 2017 UK General Election results in a hung Parliament. Minority Conservative government formed with support from the DUP 18th June 2017 President Macron’s Party wins largest share of vote in French Legislative Elections

19th June 2017 Negotiations between the UK and EU begin

22nd-23rd June 2017 European Council Summit

1st July 2017 Estonian of the Council of the EU begins

17th-20th July 2017 Round two of UK-EU negotiations

28th - 31st August 2017 Round three of UK-EU negotiations

22nd September 2017 Theresa May’s Florence speech

24th September 2017 German Federal Elections. Chancellor Merkel elected to fourth term.

25th-28th September 2017 Round four of EU-UK negotiations

1st-4th October 2017 Conservative Party Conference

9th-12th October 2017 Round five of EU-UK negotiations

15th October 2017 Austrian Parliamentary Elections. ’s ÖUP wins the largest share of vote

19th-20th October 2017 European Council Summit

9th-10th November 2017 Round Six of EU-UK Negotiations

19th November 2017 Coalition negotiations in Germany collapse

8th December 2017 EU and UK make ‘sufficient progress’ on Phase One issues

14th-15th December 2017 European Council authorises opening of Phase Two

1st January 2018 Bulgarian Presidency of the Council of the EU begins

You are here! 2017Timeline - 2019

22nd-23rd March 2018 Timeframe for preliminary agreement on transitional arrangements

March 2018 Expected timeframe for talks on Future Relationship to begin (TBC)

28th-29th June 2018 European Council Summit

1st July 2018 Austrian Presidency of the Council of the EU begins

October 2018 European Council Summit

December 2018 European Council Summit

1st January 2019 Romanian Presidency of the Council of the EU begins

29th March 2019 Deadline for UK withdrawal

May 2019 European Parliament Elections BREXIT BRIEF BREXIT BRIEF 034 | JAN 2018

Section Four: Background Material and Further Financial Times EU toughens stance for Brexit Reading transition talks. FT, 15 January 2018. (www.ft.com/ content/595c99a4-fa0f-11e7-9b32-d7d59aace167) Background Material Sky News UK must stay in customs union with the Taoiseach Leo Varadkar Speech to the European EU after Brexit, British industry group warns. Sky, 21 Parliament, Strasbourg, 17 January 2018. (www. January 2018. (www.sky.com/timre-is-running-out-for- taoiseach.gov.ie/News/Taoiseach’s_Speeches/Speech_by_ brexit-progress-british-industry-warns-11216469) An_Taoiseach_Leo_Varadkar_T_D_to_the_European_ Greater London Authority Preparing for Brexit. Parlaiment) Cambridge Econometrics, January 2018. (www.london. President Jean-Claude Juncker Speech at Plenary gov.uk/sites/default/files/preparing_for_brexit_final_ Session of the European Parliament, Strasbourg, 17 report.pdf) January 2018. (www.europa.eu/rapid/press-release_ Commissioner Phil Hogan Still turbulence ahead, so SPEECH-18-309_en.htm) keep your seat belt tightly fastened. Sunday Independent, President Donald Tusk Report to the European 7 January 2018. (www.independent.ie/business/brexit/ Parliament on December European Council meetings, 16 still-turbulence-ahead-so-keep-your-seat-belt-tightly- January 2018. (www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press- fastened-36464495.html) releases/2018/01/16/report-by-president-donald-tusk- Tony Connolly Brexit and Ireland: The Dangers, to-the-european-parliament-on-december-european- the Opportunities, and the Inside Story of the Irish council-meetings) Response. IIEA, 18 January 2018. (www.iiea.com/brexit/ Michel Barnier Speech at the Trends Manager of the brexit-ireland-dangers-opportunities-inside-story-irish- Year 2017 Event, 9 January 2018. (www.europa.eu/rapid/ response) / press-release_SPEECH-18-85_en.htm) HM Government Philip Hammond and David Davis: European Parliament Research Service. Brexit/ United Joint article: a deep and special partnership, 10 January Kingdom withdrawal from the EU: ten issues to watch in 2018. (www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-article-a- 2018, 9 January 2018. (www.epthinktank.eu/2018/09/ deep-and-special-partnership) brexit-united-kingdom- withdrawal-from-the-eu-ten- Mayor Sadiq Khan No deal is a disaster. The issues-to-watch-in-2018) government must tell us the truth about Brexit. The Department for Exiting the European Union The Guardian, 11 January 2018. (www.theguardian. Repeal Bill. Factsheet 1: General, January 2018. com/commentisfree/2018/jan/11/no-deal-disaster- (www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/ government-truth-brexit-sadiq-khan) attachment_data/file/627983/General_Factsheet.pdf) Robin Niblett Finding a Sensible Brexit. Chatham The Guardian Jeremy Corbyn under pressure to shift House, 12 December 2017. (www.chathamhouse.org/ Labour policy on Brexit. Guardian, 21 January 2018. expert/comment/finding-sensible-brexit) (www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/20/brexit- Wolfgang Munchau A German coalition deal to labour-majority-back-eu-single-market-membership) radically reshape Europe. Financial Times, 15 January European Council on Foreign Relations The sense of 2018. (www.ft.com/content/a6e39acc-f796-11e7-88f7- an ending: Contours of the next German government. 5465a6ce1a00) ECFR, 17 January 2018. (www.ecfr.eu/article/ Derek Scally SPD mutiny grows over grand coalition commentary_the_sense_of_an_ending_contours_of_ deal with Merkel. Irish Times, 15 January 2018. (www. the_next_german_government) irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/spd-mutiny-grows- Financial Times Macron boosts May’s hopes of bespoke over-grand-coa;ition-deal-with-merkel-1.3355163) EU trade deal. FT, 20 January 2018. (www.ft.com/ David McWilliams Ireland needs a new friend in content/78564d98-fdbe-11e7-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5) Europe. But who? Irish Times, 20 January 2018. (www. Financial Times Emmanuel Macron rejects special access irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-ireland- for City after Brexit. FT, 19 January 2018. (www.ft.com/ needs-a new-friend-in-europe-but-who-1.3360418) content/e9a04db8-fc84-11e7-9b32-d7d59aace167)

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole responsibility of the author. BREXIT BRIEF BREXIT BRIEF 034 | JAN 2018

Centre for European Reform Of transition and trade Republic over Brexit. IT, 13 January 2018. (www. deals. CER, 16 January 2018. (www.cer.eu/insights/ irishtimes.com/news/politics/arlene-foster-seeks- transition-and-trade-deals) conciliation-with-republic-over-brexit-1.3353557) Chris Giles Power will always trump mutual interest Irish Times Government still making plans for no- in the Brexit talks. Financial Times, 18 January 2018. deal Brexit. IT, 13 January 2018. (www.irishtimes.com/ (www.ft.com/content/7641d1f8-fc2e-11e7-9b32- news/politics/goverment-still-making-plans-for-no-deal- d7d59aace167) brexit-1.3353543) John Curtice Just 15 Months to go: What Scotland Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Tanaiste is Making of Brexit. The UK in a Changing Europe, highlights Brexit activity for 2017, 1 January 2018. January 2018. (www.ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/ (www.dfa.ie/news-and-media/press-release-archive/2018/ uploads/2018/01/What-Scotland-is-making-of-Brexit- january/tanaiste-brexit-2017) report-1.pdf) HM Government Citizens’ rights – UK and Irish Iain Begg Is the Economy Turning Sour. The UK in a nationals in the Common Travel Area, 22 December Changing Europe, January 2018. (www.ukandeu.ac.uk/ 2017. (www.gov.uk/government/publications/citizens- is-the-economyu-turning-sour) rights-uk-and-irish-nationals-in-the-common-travel- area/citizens-rights-uk-and-irish-nationals) John Springford Because of Thatcherism, we can’t get a good Brexit trade deal. Centre for European Philip Stephens Now Angela Merkel steps into Reform, 15 January 2018. (www.cer.eu/in-the-press/ Emmanuel Macron’s shadow. FT, 11 January 2018. because-thatcherism-we-cant-get-good-brexit-trade-deal- (www.ft.com/content/9b746614-f604-11e7-88f7- %E2%80%93-heres-why) 5465a6ce1a00) Rafael Behr Brexit Britain will have to get used to life as Financial Times TUC urges Theresa May to defend a ‘third country.’ The Guardian, 15 January 2018. (www. workers’ rights after Brexit. FT, 12 January 2018. theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/15/brexit- (www.ft.com/content/8d5dbf2e-f20f-11e7-ac08- britain-third-country-eu-uk) 07c3086a2625) The Guardian May faces tougher transition stance from Financial Times Brussels raises prospect of longer EU amid Norway pressure. Guardian, 16 January 2018. Brexit transition. FT, 12 January 2018. (www.ft.com/ (www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/15/norway- content/99c4eeca-f6ee-11e7-88f7-5465a6ce1a00) may-rip-up-eu-deal-over-uk-brexit-demands) Tony Blair Brexit: What We Now Know. Institute for Patrick Smyth Think Brexit is bad? Just wait for the EU Global Change, January 2018. (www.institute.global/ budget debate. IT, 10 January 2018. (www.irishtimes. news/tony-blair-brexit-what-we-now-know) com/news/world/europe/think-brexit-is-bad-just-wait- Financial Times Brexit Britain needs a special relationship for-the-eu-budget-debate-1.3351054) with Europe. FTVIew, 9 January 2018. (www.ft.com/ Tony Connelly Varadkar speech bolsters European content/7a980a46-f176-11e7-b220-857e26d1aca4) credentials. RTE News, 17 January 2018. (www.rte. Financial Times Brussels warns UK companies of ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2018/0117/933987- shut-out in event of no-deal Brexit. FT,9 January 2018. varadkar-europe-speech) (www.ft.com/content/3b60d294-f55f-11e7-8715- John McManus English deserve a break over Brexit. e94187b3017e) Irish Times, 18 January 2018. (www.irishtimes.com/ Financial Times Britain to launch Brexit charm offensive opinion/john-mcmanus-english-deserve-a-break-over- in Germany. FT, 10 January 2018. (www.ft.com/ brexit-1.3360226) content/78c6a2ba-f5de-11e7-88f7-5465a6ce1a00?tagTo Irish Times Government welcomes Arlene Foster’s Follow=05bfed9c-e2aa-314d-99c0-d864f1c91428) support for closer links. IT, 15 January 2018. (www. The Guardian A second Brexit referendum would be irishtimes.com/news/politics/government-welcomes- more toxic and divisive than the first. Guardian, 15 January arlene-foster-s-support-for-closer-links-1.3355323) 2018. (www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/ Irish Times Arlene Foster seeks conciliation with jan/15/brexit-second-referendum-nigel-farage-remain-

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole responsibility of the author. BREXIT BRIEF BREXIT BRIEF 034 | JAN 2018

leave) Further Reading The Guardian Davis and Hammond make plea to Geoffrey Evans and Anand Menon Brexit and British Germany in pursuit of Brexit deal. Guardian, 19 January Politics. Polity 2018. (www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/10/ Richard Youngs Europe Reset. I.B.Taurus davis-and-hammond-make-plea-to-germany-in-pursuit- of-brexit-deal) The Telegraph Nicola Sturgeon: amid Brexit uncertainty independence ‘must be an option’. Telegraph, 8 January 2018. (www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/01/07/nicola- sturgeon-amid-brexit-uncetainty-indepndence-must- option) The Telegraph Chancellor’s letter hints at potential compromise on customs union after Brexit. Telegraph, 8 January 2018. (www.telegraph.co.uk/ business.2018/01/05/chancellors-letter-hints-potential- compromise-custom-unionafter) Timothy Garton Ash We can stop Brexit. But we’ll need some help from across the Channel. The Guardian, 5 January 2018. (www.theguardian.com/ commentisfree/2018/jan/05/we-can-stop-brexit-politics- britain-eu) Robert Winder After Brexit, England will have to rethink its identity. The Guardian, 8 January 2018. (www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/08/ brexit-england-rethink-identity-nation) Financial Times UK in push to remain part of EU medicines agency after Brexit. FT,7 January 2018. (www.ft.com/content/1bd3b34a-f390-11e7-88f7- 5465a6ce1a00) John FitzGerald How Brexit will hit you when you try to buy goods from Penneys and M&S. Irish Times, 5 January 2018. (www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ how-brexit-will-hit-you-when-try-to buy-goods-from- penneys-and-m-s-1.3344052) Irish Times Irish companies largely unprepared for Brexit- Enterprise Ireland. IT,4 January 2018. (www. irishtimes.com/business/irish-companies-largely- unprepared-for-brexit-enterprise-irelsnd-1.3343813) William Keegan Even bravery won’t help the nightmare of Brexit’s new world. The Guardian, 31 December 2017. (www.theguardian.com/business/2017/dec/31/brexit- bravery-new-world-nightmare-nationalism)

As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole responsibility of the author.