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2012 Election Results Many Experts Say West Virginia’S Transition Was One of the Last in a Series of Southern States Going Red

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2012 Election Results Many Experts Say West Virginia’S Transition Was One of the Last in a Series of Southern States Going Red Presentation to the Contractors Association of West Virginia by Hoppy Kercheval, host of Talkline on the Metronews Radio Network The Changing Face of WWtest Virg in ia Politi cs Dems control both WV chambers since 1930 ‘32 election WV one of 42 states for FDR Dems Rule! 1932‐2004, 129 of 139 terms for statewide office won by Dems Exceptions: Arch Moore, Cecil Underwood, Cleve BditBenedict. WV is Big Blue 2000 Election George Bush Al Gore President Herbert Hoover The last time a non‐incumbent Republican carried WV in a Presidential Race before 2000 was 1928. Buck Harless and George Bush The Southern West Virginia industrialist decides he wants to help Bush try to win the election. Buck’s a Pioneer 1996 WV raises $22,000 for Bob Dole 2000 Harless pledges to raise $100,000 Bush people set his goal at $35,000 Harless raises $275,000 “Well, what do you know?” Bush starts paying attention to WV NRA President Chlharleton Heston “It gave those ‘ol boys chills.” State Senator Shirley Love Bush Wins WV Bush wins Raleigh by 1,500 votes UMWA: “Stay home.” Bush loses southern WV 2‐1 instead of 3‐1 or 4‐1 Bush carries WV 52‐46, by 40,000 votes Bush gets WV 5 elllectoral votes Hanging chads Florida vote controversy leaves 2000 election undecided WV decides the election 270 electoral votes needed to win Bush 271 w/WV and Florida. Gore 267 If Gore had carried WV with its 5 electoral votes he would have 272 without Florida The GOP nominee for President has carried WV in each of eltilections since 2000 Robert C. Byrd • Live boy, dead woman •Top of the ticket leader with down‐ballot strength •June 28, 2010 •Democratic bench weakness Party registration shifts 1994 65% of WV voters registered Democratic 2004 58% of WV voters registered Democratic 2012 52% of WV voters registered Democratic 2014 49.9 % of WV Voters registered Democratic GOP Chair Conrad Lucas: “This is a really historic day for our state and our party.” 2016 46% of WV Voters registered Democratic WV Voter Registration Trends 70% 60% 50% 40% Dem 30% Repub Indep 20% 10% 0% 1994 2004 2012 2014 But wait a minute… Dems hold 577,000 to 379,000 advantage Dem majority in 43 of 55 counties GOP % registration has stayed the same, just below 30% 1994 39,000 independent voters Today 257,576 independent voters, 21% Why pick a party? Epic 2012 Primary showdown Obama wins Primary, but… 2012 Primary Election: Obama 106,000 and Keith Judd with 72, 000 “I voted against Obama,” said electrician Ronnie Brown Obama lost to Clinton by 41 points in 2008 Primary National Dem leftward lean EPA rules and mine permit rules damage coal industry UMWA President Cecil Roberts: “National Democratic Party has forgotten about men and women who take a shower at the end of the workday.” Obamacare unpopular in WV WV Dems as Sisyphus in 2014 WV 1st Congressional District David McKinley 64% Glen Gainer 36% WV 2nd Congressional District Alex Mooney 47% Nick Casey 44% WV 3rd Congressional District Evan Jenkins 55% Nick Rahall 45% U.S. Senate Shelley Moore Capito 62% Natalie Tennant 35% WV Legislature flips House: GOP picks up 17 seats… 47‐53 to 64‐ 36 Senate: 10‐24 to 17‐17 Dem. Sen. Daniel Hall switches parties, giving Dems 18‐16 advantage in Senate. Bill ClCole eltdlected StSenate PidtPresident, Tim Armstead elected House Speaker The 15 Year Transition GOP Presidential nominee carries WV GOP holds all three Congressional seats GOP has first U.S. Senator since 1958 GOP controls both House and Senate for first time since 1930 Losses put Dems on thiheir hlheals 2012 Election Results Many experts say West Virginia’s transition was one of the last in a series of southern states going red. Is West Virginia Really Red? 2016 should tell us because… Presidential election All three Congressional seats are up All House of Delegates seats, half the Senate Governor Treasurer, Secretary of State, Attorney General, Auditor Local races Jim JJiustice vs. Bill CClole Source: Metronews West Virginia Poll (May) Justice 52% Cole 34% Preference for WV Legislative Control Source: Metronews West Virginia Poll Not Sure, 18% Deeocat,mocrat, 38% Republican, 44% Senator Joe Manchin •47% Approve •37% Disapprove •16% Not Sure •Source: Metronews West Virginia Poll Senator Shelley Moore Capito 53% Approve 26% disapprove 21% not Sure Source: Metronews West Virginia Poll Governor Earl Ray Tomblin 47% Approve 32% Disapprove 21% Not Sure Source: Metronews West Virginia Poll President Barack Obama 24% Approve 71% Disapprove 5% Not Sure Source: Metronews West Virginia Poll Right Track or Wrong Track? Metronews West Virginia Poll by Repass Research 28% WV headed in right direction 56% WV headed in wrong direction 15% Not sure BttBetter if WV has GOP or Dem as next G?Gov? 34% Democrat 37% Republican 29% Not Sure What does it all mean? •Blue to red •Leftward lean by national Dems hurts WV Dems •Dems need to regain momentum •Republicans on short leash •Past not prologue Tight budget times in WV Gov. Tomblin: “This was one of the most challenging budget years IIve’ve dealt with in my 42 years of public service.” Tobacco Tax Increase (1st plan) Proposal to raise cigarette tax by 45 cents up to $1 per pack. Fails in the House 45‐55. All but one of 36 House Democrats vote against the bill Only 44 of the 64 House Republicans vote for the bill Tobacco Tax Increase (2nd plan) Proposal to raise cigarette tax by 65 cents to $1.20 per pack Passes the House 63‐35 21 of 36 Democrats vote for the bill 42 of 64 Republicans vote for the bill Two month regular session and 17 day special session to pass tobacco tax increase Tax/fee increase difficulty 27% of West Virginians smoke Let’s say 40% of them vote 120,000 West Virginians directly affected by the cigarette tax are actual voters out of 1.2 million registered voters Great difficulty passing a tax increase even though i’it’s on an unpopular actiiivity affecti ng a small percentage of voters EEbd’verybody’s Driving •1.3 million private and commercial vehicles registered in WV. (Source: FHA) •More vehicl es than there are registered voters. •If 40% of vehicle owners vote that’s 520,000 voters. •2012 Gov race Tomblin beat Maloney by 335,000 to 303,000. •Politicians are super sensitive to any vehic le‐ related tax/fee increase. Gas price obsession Do you know any product where the average price is $30‐40 where we compare prices to the tenth of a cent? Benefits Received Principle “As much as possible, the taxpayer’ s burden should reflect the benefit received from the Government.” Source: Governor’s Commission on Fair Taxation report. December 1999. Increasing taxes or fees for anything You see: “Just 80 cents a day buys…” They see: “My taxes are going up…” House of Delegates GOP 64 seat majority is splintered. Social issues, Common Core, Religious Freedom Restoration Act, raw milk. A large chunk fundamentally opposed to ANY higher taxes or fees. Liberty Caucus influence. House Whip John O’Neal voted against leadership on 45 cent cigarette tax increase. Yogi Berra “When you come to a fork in the road, take it.” Who will be in charge? Governor Bill Cole? Governor Jim Justice? Support or Oppose… Increase in motor vehicle sales tax 5% to 6%. Increase DMV fees. Maintaining tolls on turnpike. Building new state toll roads. Increase in state gasoline tax. Statewide road bond issue. Empowering counties to raise taxes for roads. Restructuring WVDOT for efficiencies. Restructure West Virginia Government •“That’s the way we’ve always done i”it.” •“Status quo” is Latin for “The mess we’re in.” Ronald Reagan. •What government must do, what government wants to do. (infrastructure, education, protect the public) •Decentralize authority. •Measure performance by outcomes, not inputs and outputs. •SiStrive for market‐bdbased solutions, not bureaucratic solutions. •With declining revenue and rising costs, government has to be more efficient. Convergence of Forces Political Economic Politics is the process by which power is distributed and decisions are made. Questions? Thkhanks to the Contractors Association of West Virginia and Mike Clowser..
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