www.policymagazine.ca January – February 2015

Canadian Politics and Public Policy

Campaign 2015

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3 From the Editor: Campaign 2015

COVER PACKAGE: CAMPAIGN 2015 Canadian Politics and Public Policy Andrew MacDougall Communicating the Writ Stuff: Who’ll Be First to Frame EDITOR 4 the Ballot Question? L. Ian MacDonald [email protected] Brad Lavigne The Whole New Ballgame of Social Media ASSOCIATE EDITOR 7 Lisa Van Dusen [email protected] Robin V. Sears 10 Why Not Have an Election About Issues? CONTRIBUTING WRITERS Thomas S. Axworthy Thomas S. Axworthy and Rana Shamoon Andrew Balfour 14 Then and Now: Liberal to Conservative Dominance? Brian Bohunicky Derek H. Burney Douglas Porter Catherine Cano 17 Ten Reasons Why We Can Still Appreciate This Economy Margaret Clarke Celine Cooper Jeremy Kinsman Fen Osler Hampson 20 For a Pre-election Harper, All the World’s a Stage Daniel Gagnier Martin Goldfarb David McLaughlin Patrick Gossage 23 Will the Environment be Election Road Kill on the Road to Paris? Brad Lavigne Kevin Lynch Geoff Norquay Jeremy Kinsman Family Policy in the 2015 Election: Back to the Future Velma McColl 29 David McLaughlin Candice Bergen Geoff Norquay Robin V. Sears More than Income Splitting: The Harper Government’s Gil Troy 33 Child Care Solution Anthony Wilson-Smith WEB DESIGN 36 Affordable Child Care: A Smart Investment in a Priceless Resource Nicolas Landry [email protected] Bernard St-Laurent SOCIAL MEDIA EDITOR and Campaign 2015: Tom Mulcair is not Grace MacDonald 39 and is not [email protected] Patrick Gossage GRAPHIC DESIGN & PRODUCTION Monica Thomas 42 Lessons From the Toronto Election For the GTA Federal Vote [email protected] Policy 45 The Issue in 2015: Democracy’s Declining Health Policy is published six times annually by LPAC Ltd. The contents are FEATURES copyrighted, but may be reproduced with permission and attribution in Yaroslav Baran print, and viewed free of charge at Ukraine One Year After the Euromaidan: Amid an Undeclared War, the Policy home page at 48 Deep Social Change www.policymagazine.ca. Printed and distributed by St. Joseph Paul Miller Communications, 1165 Kenaston 51 Winter’s Impact on Canadian Railway Operations: Fact and Fantasy Street, , , K1A 1A4 Special thanks to our sponsors and advertisers.

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From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald Campaign 2015 elcome to our special issue the Liberals were considered Canada’s On social policy, it’s clear that the on Campaign 2015. The Natural Governing Party. For nearly a Conservatives have played for home W election may not be until decade, Harper and the Conservatives ice advantage in putting out their October 19, but the campaign has al- have replaced them in government. family and child care benefits pro- ready begun. One of the unintended But now in Justin Trudeau, they write, grams nearly a year ahead of the elec- consequences of a fixed election date, “the Liberals have a leader with the tion. Spouses with children will be coming out of a majority House, is a most identifiable name in Canadian able to do income splitting up to a permanent campaign. politics, and even his severest crit- ceiling of $2,000, and the Universal Child Care Benefit will be increased In this context, the parties can spend ics will acknowledge that Trudeau is from $100 to $160 per month. The as much as they want on their leaders’ a tremendous retail politician with a first seven months’ increase—$420 for tours, and on ad buys, until the writ sunny personality.” each child under the age of six—will is dropped five weeks before the vote. be deposited in voters’ bank accounts Not to mention earned media, actual- hen we look at four policy in July, just weeks before the election ly free media, on outlets such as You- boxes that might well frame writ is dropped. Tube. Only when the election is called T the ballot question—the econ- do campaign spending limits kick in. omy, foreign affairs, the environment Geoff Norquay provides a short history and social policy, notably child care of child care policy in Canada, going It all comes down to a struggle for and family benefits. BMO Financial back to the 1980s. Minister of Social control of the agenda, to the message Group Chief Economist Douglas Porter Development Candice Bergen, herself and the messenger. provides an overview of the Canadian a mother of three children, offers a Andrew MacDougall, now a senior economy and fiscal frameworks, and spirited defence of the government’s consultant at MSLGROUP in London, in spite of plunging oil prices, finds the family policy, while Opposition Leader is a former communications direc- fundamentals in pretty good shape. Tom Mulcair explains the NDP’s pro- tor for Prime Minister Stephen Harp- Foreign policy isn’t usually a factor posal for $15 a day national daycare. er. MacDougall knows of which he in Canadian election campaigns, but Two important regions, Quebec and writes, and says the struggle will frame 2015 may prove to be an exception. the Greater Toronto Area, tell us a lot the ballot question. As prime minister, writes Jeremy Kins- about what to look for in the cam- Brad Lavigne was communications man, “Harper enjoys an Airbus-borne paign. Bernard St-Laurent tells us why director for Jack Layton in the NDP’s platform with on-board media chan- Quebec is different, and Patrick Gos- successful 2011 campaign and later neling stories that spokesmen script,” sage reflects on lessons of the Toronto Layton’s principal secretary when he as seen at the G20 leaders’ summit mayoralty campaign for the federal was opposition leader. He looks at the when he told Vladimir Putin “I’ll GTA vote. disruptive innovation of social me- shake your hand, but you need to get Finally, Green Party Leader Elizabeth dia in elections—from Facebook and out of Ukraine.” Theatrical gestures May tells us why her party should Twitter to LinkedIn and Tumblr—and aside, Kinsman suggests the country be included in the leaders’ debates its impact on campaigns. Twitter may needs a change on the foreign policy and the larger national conversation, be an echo chamber, but what an echo. front and comes down hard on Harper which is one of the reasons why we Respected political strategist Robin for his secretive and polarizing style. have included her on our cover. She’s Sears takes a look at what the parties On the environment and climate earned her way there. need to do in the campaign. Sears change, the road to COP21 in Paris Elsewhere, in a timely and poignant asks: why not have an election about in November and December runs piece, Yaroslav Baran reflects on the issues? If only. through the Canadian election in Oc- situation after the parliamentary elec- Tom Axworthy, who was principal sec- tober. Canada is set to get only half- tions in Ukraine, where he has been a retary to , and his Con- way to its 2009 Copenhagen target leader of Canadian observer teams for servative co-author Rana Shamoon of reducing GHG emissions to 17 per several elections. consider Harper’s bid to win a fourth cent below 2005 levels by 2020. And Finally, Paul Miller of the University consecutive election, a feat accom- that was before the even more am- of Alberta writes of the impact of plished only by Sir John A. Macdonald bitious goals announced by Barack winter on Canadian rail operations. among Conservative leaders (though Obama in the US-China accord in No- There’s a “tipping point”, he sug- he won four consecutive majorities, vember. David McLaughlin provides gests, of -25 minus degrees, where while Harper won a majority only in us with an environmental update for the Polar Vortex makes railway op- 2011). For most of the last century, Campaign 2015. erations challenging.

January/February 2015 4

The messengers: Laureen and at the Calgary Stampede in 2014. Framing the choice of the ballot question is as important in the run-up to the election as during the campaign itself. PMO photo Communicating the Writ Stuff: Who’ll Be First to Frame the Ballot Question? Andrew MacDougall

In this 2015 pre-writ period, Stephen Harper has the he denizens of official Ottawa advantage of incumbency, Justin Trudeau has to con- often labour under the misap- T prehension that people across vince voters he can be trusted governing and Tom Mul- the country pay attention to them to the cair has to try to neutralize them both on substance to same degree to which they pay attention compensate for the lack of Mulcairmania brewing. Let to themselves. They don’t, of course, but that will begin to change now that the the games begin. calendar has flipped to 2015 and a fed- eral election is in the offing. To the average citizen, Ottawa is the place where your taxes go to be squan- dered, and where politicians go to yell at each other. Concentrating people’s minds on the legitimate differences be- tween the political parties and the con- sequences those differences will have

Policy 5 on their lives can’t be done solely in Conservative strategists know they need to tap the rich the writ period. Framing the choice seam of voters who don’t care for the prime minister, but in the run-up to the election will be respect him, and would choose him if either circumstances, as important, if not more important, or a poor choice of opponents, dictate it. than any announcement made on the campaign trail. Two of the major parties have acted he can handle the increased scrutiny Conservatives. What path can he early and decided to frame the loom- of the press. It might not feel like climb to victory? ing electoral debate by announc- it for Team Trudeau, but the Parlia- ing new policy: Stephen Harper and mentary Press Gallery has been fairly his is where incumbency has Thomas Mulcair have drawn clear docile. That will change now that he T its advantages. shifts from being the leader of the lines around child care and tax issues. Using the bully pulpit of govern- Justin Trudeau has, to date, resisted third party in the House of Commons ment, Prime Minister Harper has suc- the urge to join the policy party and to a potential prime minister. Coping cessfully re-focused the agenda on has instead been selling himself to with that scrutiny will take a disci- substance (i.e. policy), which is his Canadian voters, with the promise of pline and quick thinking that hasn’t strength versus Justin Trudeau. He substance at a later date. yet been aptly demonstrated. will also surely craft a budget that gives him more policy nuggets to How to mold this policy and person- It might not feel like it for ality clay into a clear choice for Cana- front over the coming months. The dian voters? Each party faces different Team Trudeau, but the Prime Minister will now have to find obstacles to victory. What communi- Parliamentary Press Gallery communications opportunities that cations challenges do the leaders of has been fairly docile. That allow him to play to his strength. As the three major parties face? will change now that he always, these opportunities will come Let’s start with the incumbent. Prime shifts from being the leader outside of Ottawa, and away from the Minister Harper is a known quantity of the third party in the Parliamentary Press Gallery. to voters; there is precious little room House of Commons to a The Prime Minister’s Office will in- for re-introduction or re-invention, potential prime minister. stead continue to have the PM par- not that the prime minister would ticipate in a number of moderated care to do either. He is also a polar- question and answer sessions with lo- And what of Thomas Mulcair? The izing figure: those who like him, like cal chambers of commerce, or econo- leader of the opposition is respected him a lot, while those who don’t, in- my-focused lobby groups. These op- for his prosecutorial skill by the Ot- cluding several public sector unions, portunities allow him to demonstrate tawa Gallery and political junkies. will be mounting a vigorous cam- his mastery of the economic brief, i.e. The main problem for Mulcair is that paign to topple him. the issue that is likely to be the num- he’s little known outside of the Parlia- ber one concern for voters. The Conservative base appears to be mentary precinct. The record number holding, but many of the voters who of people who voted for the NDP in It would benefit the Prime Minister, supported Harper in 2011 will need 2011 did so for many reasons, but out- however, to also stretch his legs in a some reminding of why they pulled side of the riding of Outremont that series of meaty interviews with the the lever for him and his party in the reason was likely not Thomas Mulcair. Peter Mansbridges or Bloombergs of last go around. Conservative strate- the world. who respect, gists know they need to tap the rich Mulcair faces a Herculean task. He but don’t like him, need to meet him seam of voters who don’t care for will have to take a party that is cur- again, and this is where the meeting the prime minister, but respect him, rently lagging at 20 to 25 per cent in is most likely to happen. Thoughtful and would choose him if either cir- the polls, and take it above and be- 20-minute interviews on policy and cumstances, or a poor choice of op- yond the record levels attained in the the challenges facing Canada would ponents, dictate it. last election by his more charismatic be an effective platform for Harper to predecessor, the late Jack Layton. make the case for his re-election. The or Justin Trudeau, the chal- To compound his challenge, he will world in 2015 is an unsteady place, lenge becomes convincing Ca- need to do this against Trudeau, who and it would be smart for the PM F nadians that he can be trusted is also infinitely more charismatic to talk about that. It would also put with governing. Trudeau and his ad- than Layton’s opponent, Michael Ig- pressure on Trudeau to follow suit. visers have so far crafted a positive in- natieff, was. troduction that is heavy on fluff and In short, Mulcair can’t expect to f course, a long-form inter- light on the stuff Canadians usually out-image or out-charisma Justin view with a serious journal- need to hear about before they hand Trudeau, and, if NDP electoral his- ist would also open the door over the keys to the country. O tory is our guide, out-policy or out- to the main threat to the PM’s com- Trudeau will also need to prove that competence Stephen Harper and the munications agenda: that which he

January/February 2015 6 cannot control; first and foremost a of Trudeau’s father. They are commu- No matter the particular challenges senator who will soon be in the dock. nications no-brainers. facing a party, a massive problem But these are threats that will surface The path for Thomas Mulcair is less for all parties will be staying on mes- during the campaign—the opposition clear. There’s no Mulcairmania out sage. With every gaffe likely to be parties will see to that– so dealing with there waiting to be tapped. Logic amplified to distraction during the it head on before a writ is preferable. would dictate that he be aggressive campaign, parties will be applying While he should continue to gener- in courting the press in Quebec. Any an unprecedented amount of control ate buzz through softer platforms, national growth can only come after to their live events, and relying even Justin Trudeau will at some point his base in Quebec is solidified. Us- more on paid and owned channels. have to make forays into substance. ing Quebec provincial policy as their Repeating a message drives reporters He, too, should do that away from guide, the NDP have put child care crazy, but it’s the best way to ensure the glare of cynical Ottawa journal- front and centre; Mulcair can only your word gets filtered through to ists. Once some policy is in place, hope that audiences across the coun- voters. In the noisy era of digital and Trudeau should instead do rounds of try are willing to hear about it. social media, the temptation is to say interviews with leading outlets in re- many different things to many dif- gional markets, supplemented with a There’s no Mulcairmania out ferent audiences. It’s all too easy to heavy diet of third-language press. In there waiting to be tapped. lose the ballot question in a blizzard addition to getting his message out, Logic would dictate that he of tweets. this training will help to prepare him Of course, the best way to come out for future encounters with the na- be aggressive in courting of a campaign with a clear message tional press. the press in Quebec. Any national growth can only driving a favourable ballot question The benefits are clear. Local reporters, come after his base in is to go into a campaign with a clear while certainly not pushovers, aren’t message and ballot question. as process-oriented as journalists who Quebec is solidified. Whichever party spends the run-up cover politics for a living, and their to the writ framing a clear choice in questions tend, for obvious reasons, In a universe where the press will the most positive light will be the to be about substantive local issues. want to make it Harper vs. Trudeau, one that has the pleasure of govern- As former U.S. House Speaker Thom- his main task will be simply to get no- ing our great country come Novem- as P. “Tip” O’Neill famously said: “All ticed. In that sense, he might as well ber 2015. politics is local.” Third language me- swing for the fences. If he’s to be the dia, on the other hand, are more re- left’s standard-bearer to stop Harper, Andrew MacDougall, former director spectful, less confrontational, and are he’ll first need to stop Trudeau. The of communications for Prime Minister often the primary source of news in trouble is, Trudeau’s team isn’t likely Harper, is a senior executive consultant their communities. They also repre- to give Mulcair a platform to take on at MSLGROUP in London, England. sent groups that have fond memories their guy. [email protected]

Canadian Politics and Public Policy

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Policy 7

Shutterstock photo The Whole New Ballgame of Social Media Brad Lavigne

The disruptive innovation of social media in election e sat silently in the make- campaigning really began with the Obama campaign shift holding room in Ot- W tawa’s National Arts Centre. of 2008. But that was before Twitter took hold. Now, I was with Karl Belanger, Jack’s Layton’s the perpetual publication cycle of social media has rev- senior press secretary, and we were lis- olutionized everything about Canadian election cam- tening to the closed-circuit TV feed of the 2011 federal leaders’ debate taking paigns, from supporter mobilization to media relations. place live just a few meters away. The most important thing to know about the 2015 fed- We were also intently monitoring our eral election campaign and social media is: It’s already Twitter feeds on our Blackberries to see started. what members of the National Press Gallery, candidates, campaign staff, vol- unteers, supporters and opponents were saying about the debate. We were in the first hour of the English language de- bate and Jack was about use a line in the debate to challenge Stephen Harper on the issue of youth crime prevention. We didn’t know precisely when he was go-

January/February 2015 8 ing to use it, and we had no idea what Canadians spend more time online than people in almost the reaction was going to be. any country in the world. In its 2013 annual survey, the Then it happened. In an appeal for ef- Canadian Internet Research Authority found, on average, fective youth diversion programs and Canadians spend over 40 hours per month online, more a critique of Conservative policies on than any country except for the United States. youth and crime, Jack wrapped up his interjection with a line we knew was coming: “That’s been a hashtag fail.” nadian politics? The short answer is outlet for input into party activities. According to the Globe and Mail, because that’s where Canadians are. These tools have helped usher in the They’re online, and they’re using so- the phrase “was seized upon glee- Permanent Campaign in Canada. fully by the Canadian Twitterverse; cial media on their desktops, tablets ‘hashtag fail’ was a trending topic for and smart phones. These tools have helped hours after the NDP leader’s remark, In fact, Canadians spend more time usher in the Permanent generating thousands of tweets and online than people in almost any Campaign in Canada. re-tweets.” country in the world. In its 2013 an- Parties are no longer The line worked because it was well- nual survey, the Canadian Internet interested in talking to delivered, authentic and it got thou- Research Authority found, on aver- supporters merely in the sands of debate watchers, especially age, Canadians spend over 40 hours lead- up to the campaign. the media reporting on the debate, per month online, more than any Rather, they seek to engage talking about the leader of the fourth country except for the United States. them in between election party who, at the time, was dead last According to Facebook Canada, more cycles and social media in the polls. than 19 million Canadians log on to serves as an excellent But equally important, it became the their Facebook account at least once conduit for this work. point in Canadian federal politics a month and 14 million check their when the lexicon of social media, in Facebook newsfeed every day—in- this case Twitter (barely around in cluding over nine million who do the previous election), had quickly this daily ritual on their mobile de- Parties are no longer interested in talk- found its way into the Canadian po- vice. Meanwhile, Twitter has 5.6 mil- ing to supporters merely in the lead- litical arena, leaving many non-Twit- lion monthly users in Canada, second up to the campaign. Rather, they seek ter savvy Canadians to ask, “What’s a only to the United Kingdom in terms to engage them in between election hashtag?” of percentage of the population. cycles and social media serves as an These social media tools have cre- In social media terms, the 2011 elec- excellent conduit for this work. tion campaign could be described as ated new channels for politicians Through 140 characters on Twitter or the “Twitter campaign.” Facebook, and campaigners (and businesses) a Facebook social sharable, war rooms YouTube, and even blogs all emerged to recruit, engage and mobilize sup- can cheaply and effectively commu- over the previous decade as impor- porters—all without leaving the cam- nicate their message—or push out op- tant social media tools used by politi- paign headquarters: position research—that, in the past, cal parties in the lead-up to and dur- Recruiting: Social media helps politi- would have required press releases ing the 2000, 2004, 2006 and 2008 cal parties by organizing Canadians and willing journalists. Social media election campaigns. into groups, whether it’s geographic, now allows for this campaigning to typographic, demographic, or cat- Social media and digital campaigning go on unfiltered as part of constant egories less tangible but equally as have fast become the latest frontier engagement. and a permanent fixture for politi- valuable, such as interests and val- cal practitioners of the modern cam- ues. That’s why social media is a key Mobilization: The culmination of paign. With the next election right source for leads for practitioners to these steps is to mobilize the commu- around the corner, the question isn’t, find and cultivate their supportive nity. The call to action may be to do- “Will social media be important in the communities. nate money, volunteer time, recruit friends and family, and, of course, get 2015 campaign?” Rather, the question Engagement: Social media and the out and vote. Political parties are con- is, “How will social media further evolve digital campaign allows for constant stantly asking people to take action the way in which political parties cam- engagement of the supportive com- because when it does come time to paign in Canada?” munity. This allows supporters to re- vote on election day, they are more ceive ongoing information from their likely to do so than if their first activ- hy have social media and preferred political party that helps online campaigning be- reinforce their support, gives them a ity was to vote on E-Day. W come so important in Ca- sense of belonging and serves as an It’s not just the use of social media

Policy 9 platforms such as YouTube, Twitter, With online ads, we can measure click-throughs, how long Facebook and Tumblr; politics has the person spent on the page, and through heat mapping, been altered dramatically by the en- you can track the reader’s interests by mapping where tire online digital space and the tools their pointer goes. This data helps campaign practitioners that come with it. test, refine, make adjustments and be far more strategic in delivering the right message to the right person. he increasing segmentation of the Canadian audience has accelerated the value of the T spent on the page, and through heat the persona, it merely amplifies it digital and social media world. Today, mapping, you can track the reader’s through an authentic use of it. both in politics and in the private interests by mapping where their sector, we can micro-target a message pointer goes. This data helps cam- with a level of precision unheard of ocial media also amplifies the paign practitioners test, refine, make just a few years ago. Messages can so-called bozo eruptions. In adjustments and be far more strategic now be customized and delivered not S previous campaigns, if a candi- in delivering the right message to the just to a city, an electoral district or date at an all-candidates meeting said right person. even a postal code, but based on us- something off- message, or worse—it ers’ digital footprints. Despite all the important and excit- may have made it into the local news- ing opportunities offered by these paper at some point. Today, missteps Today, both in politics and digital tools, it would be a mistake of leaders or candidates become in- in the private sector, we to suggest that social media will re- stant national stories, regardless of can micro-target a message place other, more traditional aspects where they took place. of recruiting, engaging or mobilizing. with a level of precision The coordinated effort by parties Social media augments rather than unheard of just a few years to destabilize their opponents also replaces the telephone or door-to- ago. Messages can now be means old postings on blogs or Face- door canvass. As long as voting still customized and delivered book now come back to haunt can- consists of a registered voter marking not just to a city, an electoral didates of all major parties, throwing an ‘X’ at a polling station in person, district or even a postal parties off their message. This has then the human connection will still forced opposition research units to code, but based on users’ be extremely important. digital footprints. undertake a new level of crisis com- Conversely, social media and the munications that didn’t exist just a digital world have created an unprec- few campaigns ago. edented level of intimacy and access to politicians by regular people. Social media is accelerating the rate We can now speak to individuals at which modern campaigning is For the politician, these tools allow cheaply and effectively, and can cus- evolving. an unfiltered vehicle to send mes- tomize the message that works best sages, either through tagged tweets or The 2015 election will be the lon- for them. This specialization means messages on their Facebook timeline. gest, nastiest and most expensive more work for political parties—but campaign in Canadian history. It it also helps to ensure they are deliv- Prior to these tools, an activist might will be the most targeted and sophis- ering the best message to the most have mailed a letter to a leader or ticated as well, which is why to the receptive audience. waited in line to shake their hand and average observer, they won’t even have a quick word at a rally if they realize that the campaign is already verything in the social media came through their town. Today, any well underway and they are already and digital campaign sphere person with a Twitter or Facebook ac- a part of it. E is measurable. This allows us count can have instant and direct ac- to constantly test and refine the mes- cess to a politician. Contributing Writer Brad Lavigne, vice- saging. In traditional media, a party This intimacy allows politicians to president of H&K Strategies in Ottawa, takes out an ad in a newspaper. You extend their brand by communi- was director of communications and know what the circulation of that cating in an unfiltered way with an later principal secretary to Jack Layton day’s edition—usually plumped individual or group. For instance, as Leader of the Opposition. He is the for sales purposes—but that is it. Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi helps author of the bestselling Building the How many people who subscribe or his fellow citizens find lost cats Orange Wave. [email protected] bought the paper looked at your ad? and helps promote safety during You have no way of knowing. floods by retweeting messages from With online ads, we can measure individuals to his 204,000 follow- click-throughs, how long the person ers. Twitter, though, doesn’t create

January/February 2015 10

Parliament Hill in the grip of winter. When the House rises in June, the 41st Parliament will be done, but Election 42 is already under way in a game of tactics rather than a contest of ideas. Policy archives

Why Not Have an Election About Issues? Robin V. Sears

In an era of voter apathy and cautious campaigning, t is a cliché among political hacks voters have proven again and again that, given a true that “campaigns matter.” As a self- I referential thesis it makes perfect choice of ideas, they will engage. As the 2015 election sense to political warriors. If campaigns approaches, veteran strategic and policy adviser Robin matter, then campaign skills matter, and Sears suggests what Stephen Harper, Tom Mulcair and those who excel at them are essential to Justin Trudeau might do to make this campaign about any party or leader’s success. more than tactics. What voters have declared with increas- ing determination in recent years is that ideas matter more. From the US presiden- tial election in 2008 to Kathleen Wynne’s

Policy election as premier of Ontario to the The Harperites’ vision of their mandate is not to deliver recent Toronto mayoral campaign, anything like a socially conservative Canada, or even one with voters have proven that when they a smaller government, despite their claims. Stephen Harper are provided with a distinct choice among big ideas, they will turn out. probably does hold a far more radical vision but it has been so far mostly subsumed to the vulgar game of power at all costs. In Ottawa, we are now descended into the sullen endurance of anoth- more than good hair and a relent- dering their farmland economically er long winter, but soon to explode less smile as a reason for placing the useless. into a spring and summer of electoral country in his hands. jousts. Okay, really just another bor- There was serious discussion about ing Canadian federal election made getting rid of the system at the time more insufferable this time for its be- o what do the three leaders need of the free trade debate in 1987-88. ing nine months long. How did we to do, and what should they It was rejected mostly on political fall so low that at least one out of S not do? grounds—small farmers were essen- two Canadians are once again, more The big policy idea should either be tial to political victory in a swath of likely to be watching “Breaking Bad” something that is consistent with Conservative ridings along the St. re-runs on their iPhone than bother- and a logical extension of previous Lawrence and Ottawa River valleys ing to choose their next government policy stances, or a dramatic break and in parts of southwestern Ontario. and prime minister? with the past to shake off a damag- The cost was estimated publicly, as ing legacy. costing somewhere between $4-6 bil- Imagine how different we might feel, lion to buy out the farmer’s quotas. waking on the morning of October Here are two big idea campaign Today the estimates range from $12- 20 next year, to see that we had elect- planks for each party, most of which 20 billion. Taking the low end, and ed a government committed to big fall into the extension of their brand phasing over a decade, as the Austra- ideas and big changes; that we had baskets, rather than dramatic brand lians did, it would be less than $50 turned out in great numbers, after an shifts. Each would be transformative per Canadian. Most of that would be exciting and emotional election cam- of Canadian politics and Canada. recovered by most families in lower paign and chosen among competing food costs. platforms a new vision of the future? For the Conservatives, my two sug- gestions are—ending supply manage- The arguments in favour of abolish- Both Harper and Tom Mulcair ment in agriculture and eliminating ing supply management are virtually know how to defend ideas barriers to interprovincial trade. unassailable in terms of export devel- both inside and outside the It is somewhat bizarre that Canada’s opment. But the resistance to change box. Justin Trudeau does not self-proclaimed pro-market, pro- from Canadian farmers, as in New trade economic management experts Zealand and later Australia, makes have that experience, but for the decision one requiring political that reason alone he needs to have clung to two relics of a Canada that disappeared half a century ago. courage. The arguments in favour of present something more than change from a consumer perspective good hair and a relentless They are the so-called “supply man- agement” regimes that buttress the are absurdly one-sided. In Canada, smile as a reason for placing prices of eggs, chickens, and dairy some foreign dairy products face tar- iffs that would double the supermar- the country in his hands. products. It is our now nearly unique ket cost if anyone were so foolish as form of agricultural subsidy, roundly to attempt their sale. attacked by virtually all our trading The Harperites’ vision of their man- partners. The second is internal bar- In the same vein of the obsolete and date is not to deliver anything like a riers to trade. wrongheaded is the provinces con- socially conservative Canada, or even tinuing use of tariff and non-tariff one with a smaller government, de- upply management was a post- barriers to keep out “foreign” busi- spite their claims. Stephen Harper war invention designed to ness. There is no believable claim that probably does hold a far more radical keep Canadian small farms there is something special about how S Ontario highway contractors pave a vision but it has been so far mostly from being overwhelmed by Ameri- subsumed to the vulgar game of pow- can agri-business. It was a fairly nutty highway compared to their Alberta er at all costs. policy idea from conception, allow- peers, but each faces serious obstacles to winning business outside their In 2015, we have two seasoned pros ing small farmers to sell their “dairy own province—especially where gov- going toe to toe. Both Harper and quota” separately from their farm- ernment contracts are concerned. Tom Mulcair know how to defend land. It led to the destruction of hun- ideas both inside and outside the dreds of family farms within a decade Predictably it is usually not box. Justin Trudeau does not have as cash-poor farmers sold their quota or who play dog-in- that experience, but for that reason to large—ironically, often American- the-manger. It is giants such as On- alone he needs to present something owned giant dairy operations—ren- tario and Quebec—each of whom 12 have pledged for decades to break Our new trade agreement with the European Union—CETA— down these barriers to interprovin- requires us to open up procurement to European competitors. cial trade (BITs) and somehow fail to So we now have the ludicrous proposition that a Bavarian actually get around to doing it. Our engineering firm would have guaranteed access to a Montreal new trade agreement with the Euro- pean Union—CETA—requires us to transit project, and an Alberta firm wouldn’t. open up procurement to European competitors. So we now have the lu- tem approach to social assistance is how their ownership would bring dicrous proposition that a Bavarian wide, and the implementation ap- benefit to Canadians. We would still engineering firm would have guaran- proaches in a federal system would be able to vet purchasers on security teed access to a Montreal transit proj- need to be flexible. But like medicare, grounds. Chinese investors might be ect, and an Alberta firm wouldn’t. which faced similar issues, it would no more welcome to attempt to buy be tweaked and improved over time. BlackBerry than they would be today. As proofs of a commitment to a pro- The political challenge is simply in cess of market-opening, export de- But Bell Canada might be tempted defending its logic and its relevance to take on foreign markets to win velopment, and “one Canada” such to a Canada that has always cared a pair of pledges would be powerful the scale to compete and remain about inequality and fairness across independent. proof that the Harper team still has the regions. some ideas worthy of support—a From Mulcair’s point of view it challenge for an increasingly tired The Canadian system of would demonstrate his courage and looking, nearly 10-year-old regime. social assistance supports— his openness to non-traditional like most of the developed NDP positions as a preparation for he NDP has long championed world’s—is a mess. Costly to power. From Canadian consumers’ social justice, often forcing point of view the immediate impact manage, full of overlaps and T Liberal and Tory governments would be small initially, but new to do things they have promised and duplication, open to abuse Canadian giants might emerge as a not delivered—medicare, pensions, both by politicians and by result of this nudge to them to play health and safety, the environment— clients, it is long overdue for on a global stage. the list is long. Mulcair has placed a the policy scrapheap. couple of small bets to advance that or the Liberals, the need is dif- agenda in the form of a universal ferent than the Tories’ need to child care plan and a commitment to F prove they still have some en- raise minimum wages substantially. more challenging Mulcair ergy. Different, too, from the NDP’s Both are worthy planks but neither plank could be dropping for- need to demonstrate they are not is game changing. His childcare plan A eign ownership rules entire- prisoners of history or to orthodoxy. is a clear knock-off of an established ly. This is likely to be better under- Justin Trudeau needs to prove that program in Quebec, and his wage stood by Quebec voters than many he is both a 21st century grown-up plan is already being essentially im- in English Canada, as they have al- and a serious potential statesman. plemented in several US cities by pro- ways led on free trade and market gressive mayors. His twin planks might include one opening efforts, despite their repu- for each side of his emerging brand We have a much bigger issue that tation as Canada’s leading lefties. Is identity. On the innovation side, needs tackling. That is the bowl of there a good reason why Canadian he might revive a plan killed in the spaghetti that is Canadian social as- record companies, book publishers, Chrétien /Martin wars of the last sistance programming. From the use broadcasters, satellite firms and cable Liberal regime, when Brian Tobin’s of employment insurance as a form of companies should be owned only by dream of creating a truly national family subsidy in northern and east- Canadian investors? Is there any na- high-speed digital highway ran into ern Canadian communities, to the tional interest in keeping out foreign the ditch. Canada is once again fall- widely varying levels and definitions banks or even uranium mine owners? ing behind not only Asia but the US of provincial social assistance, the The limitations we place on foreign in terms of access and speed of our in- Canadian system of social assistance ownership in banking, telecoms, na- ternet networks. Finland has made it supports—like most of the developed tional defense etc. serve, once again, a legal right that every home should world’s—is a mess. Costly to manage, to drive up Canadian prices, prevent have access to an internet service that full of overlaps and duplication, open the development of Canadian export delivers 10 megabit speed today, aim- to abuse both by politicians and by champions, and limit the market cap ing at 100 by the end of the decade. clients, it is long overdue for the pol- of Canadian firms in those sectors. Australia built—but its current con- icy scrapheap. We could retain the right to impose servative government may yet kill—a The variety of approaches that have “net benefit tests”—as we always national broadband network crown been developed and advocated for have in foreign investment rules—an corporation to offer the same fibre such a universal single payment sys- investor would be required to show backbone for their highly dispersed

Policy 13 and often remote communities. No addressed the collapse of the private party’s innovative campaign planks. country is more like Australia both defined benefit pension that nearly Sadly, it is far more likely that demographically and geographically three generations of industrial and the Liberals will simply say Justin than Canada. We could do that here. resource sector employees depended Trudeau is a nicer person than the on to supplement a still modest Can- For the Liberals, the need PM and offer a Harper-lite agenda. ada Pension Plan or Quebec Pension Tom Mulcair will attempt to seize is different than the Tories’ Plan (CPP/QPP) payment. the toughest Harper-killer crown, as need to prove they still have The Ontario government’s an- his appeal to the nearly two-thirds some energy. Different, too, nouncement of its plan to create its of Canadians who have never voted from the NDP’s need to own pension plan, may be admirable for, and are aching to see the back of demonstrate they are not from a compassionate point of view, a very divisive prime minister. The prisoners of history or to it is not from wise from a national Conservatives’ hard-edged campaign orthodoxy. Justin Trudeau policy perspective—the bigger the bosses will simply repeat endlessly needs to prove that he is both pool of contributors and beneficiaries that Harper may not be likeable but a 21st century grown-up and the lower the costs. he is competent, and change is risky. a serious potential statesman. It may be enough for the Liberal Social psychologists tell us that we campaign to simply to commit to the are far more risk-averse than gain- broad principles of pension reform: seeking as a culture and the Conser- vatives have vastly greater resources The Liberals have also always been a guarantee of a sustainable pension than their two opponents. For the justly proud of their status as the system with generous support for all Liberals and the NDP therefore to party of national programs—big equally assured. The plan could be mount an election based on a “game ideas that touch all Canadians. Per- negotiated in detail in an immediate of inches” is probably most unwise. haps it is now time to fix Canada’s federal-provincial negotiation pro- As the old campaign cliché has it: pension system. Mackenzie King fa- cess, as a priority of their new govern- against a strong incumbent the riski- mously accepted an offer of support ment, just as the Pearson government est campaign is often the low-risk from Stanley Knowles to create the did so successfully half a century ago. campaign. primitive beginnings of our retire- ment system. Liberals later added o imagine what a campaign Contributing Writer Robin V. Sears, Registered Retirement Savings Plans this might be. Competing vi- a former national director of the NDP (RRSPs), and the Harper government S sions of how to build a stron- during the years, is a added Tax Free Savings Accounts (TF- ger, more equal Canada with power- principal of the Earnscliffe Strategy SAs). Sadly, none of these layers has ful arguments to be made for each Group. [email protected]

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January/February 2015 14

Former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien, campaigns with Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau. Chrétien was the leader of the last Liberal dynasty. Will Trudeau be the next one? Photo by Adam Scotti Then and Now: Liberal to Conservative Dominance? Thomas S. Axworthy and Rana Shamoon

Has Stephen Harper effectively ended the historic reign n 2015, Stephen Harper could win of the as the “Natural Gov- his fourth straight election, a feat I no Conservative has achieved since erning Party”? With Justin Trudeau presenting the first Sir John A. Macdonald. To be eligible for credible threat to Harper’s evident mastery of Canadian selection to the same electoral pantheon as the legendary Sir John A. is an indica- politics since 2011, the 2015 election may be histori- tion of how much Harper has mastered cally important for providing an answer to that ques- Canadian politics since becoming prime tion. Will it mark the death of a “tough old bird”, or minister in 2006. The 2015 election will be important, like every electoral con- “Some chicken, some neck”? test in deciding who forms government. But beyond the horse-race perspective is a larger historical question: will 2015 confirm that the Conservatives have, in the early 21st century, established a new dynasty replacing the once dominant 20th -century Liberal party coalition?

Policy 15 V.O, Key Jr., the great Harvard po- If the Liberals have fallen spectacularly, the Conservatives litical scientist, published in 1955, of Stephen Harper have built incrementally. The Harper A Theory of Critical Elections, which breakthrough is not due to an eruption like the Jack Layton’s called attention to the fact that not “orange crush” in 2011, or charismatic appeal like Pierre all elections are the same: occasion- Trudeau in 1968. ally, there are electoral realignments “in which the decisive results of the voting reveal a sharp alteration of the pre-existing cleavage within the pened only once before in Canadian lics, immigrants (especially visible electorate.” If the realignment is con- history) but fall to third place behind minorities) and women. In 1980, firmed in subsequent elections, and the NDP, a calamity that had never with Pierre Trudeau as leader, for endures overtime, then there has happened before. From first to third example, the Liberal Party took 68 been a “critical election” leading to a in a decade takes some doing. per cent of the vote in Quebec and fundamental shift. If the Liberals have fallen spectacu- 74 of 75 seats. In 2000, under Jean Key’s criteria apply to the 1896 Ca- larly, the Conservatives of Stephen Chrétien, despite the rise of the Bloc nadian federal election, for example, Harper have built incrementally. The Québécois, the Liberals still had 44 as , the francophone Harper breakthrough is not due to an per cent of the vote and 36 seats in leader of the Liberal Party, won 49 eruption like the Jack Layton’s “or- Quebec. In 2000, more than half of seats in Quebec to the Conservative ange crush” in 2011, or charismatic Catholic voters supported the Liber- Party’s 16, making Quebec the bed- appeal like Pierre Trudeau in 1968. al Party, as did 80 per cent of visible rock of the Liberal Party for the next Instead, carefully and methodically, minorities and 46 per cent of Cana- hundred years. In their book, Dynas- Harper united the right-leaning par- dian women (compared to 24 per ties and Interludes, Lawrence LeDuc ties, therefore consolidating his base. cent for the Canadian Alliance). and his co-authors write that the Then he worked to make the Conser- Laurier dynasty was established in vatives the preferred party on eco- 40 per cent of voters 1896, tested in the election of 1900, nomic issues, a competence of most identified with the Liberal then confirmed in the elections of concern to Canadian voters, while Party in 2000. This meant 1904 and 1908. The authors posit reducing fears that he has a radical that the Liberals could win that there are three keys to establish- right-wing agenda on social issues. by turning out enough ing a political dynasty: to be well po- Governments traditionally defeat voters from their core while sitioned on the key economic ques- themselves, but Harper has added at least breaking even with tions, to ensure confidence on issues two percent to his vote total and 20 independent or swing voters. of national unity, and expanding or seats in each election since becoming sustaining the welfare state. prime minister. The Conservatives Known as the Natural Governing had 29.6 per cent of the vote and 99 Party of the 20th Century, the Liberal seats in 2004 and this grew to 39.6 Party was adept at positioning itself per cent of the vote and 166 seats in In addition to keeping the traditional on these three key requirements. In 2011. Like a batter who steadily in- Liberal coalition intact, the Chrétien- the 2000 election, Jean Chrétien won creases his average month by month, Martin partnership strengthened Lib- his third majority government in a year by year, no matter who is pitch- eral appeal in the crucial area of the row, and the Liberal dynasty seemed ing, Stephen Harper has become a economy. Elections from the 1960s well placed to go on and on. But as political all-star. to the 1990s more typically had the the ancient Greeks wrote, “Those Liberals trying to make unity and just However, Harper never faced Jean whom the gods wish to destroy they society concerns the dominant is- Chrétien in an election: Chrétien has first make mad.” Through hubris, sues, while Conservatives spotlighted the Liberals embraced the madness all-star credentials too, and compar- the economy. By eradicating the defi- of civil war, and in doing so, they ing his last majority in 2000 with cit, creating jobs and reducing taxes, destroyed a coalition that had taken Harper’s first in 2011 demonstrates however, the Chrétien government them a century to build. what has happened between then gained legitimacy in economic man- and now. agement. In the 2000 election, the t is instructive to compare the The last Liberal dynasty of Chrétien Liberals were slightly ahead of the Al- electoral pillars of the “Big Red and his partner—then rival—Paul liance on which party was closest to I Machine” in 2000, the last year Martin had many of the same pil- voter opinions on the deficit (a tradi- of a Liberal majority, with the results lars of support as past eras of Liberal tional strength of the Reform Party). of the 2011 election, which saw the success. The Liberal Party became While neutralizing this issue on the Liberal Party not only lose for the the governing party because of great right, the Chrétien Liberals also en- third time in a row (that had hap- support from francophones, Catho- joyed the support of 43 per cent of

January/February 2015 16 union households, far above the NDP The budget deficit has at last been eradicated, and tax cuts at 30 per cent. and credits, the tried and true elements of a Conservative For all these reasons, the Chrétien platform, are on the way. Once again, the Conservatives Liberals enjoyed the support of the will campaign as the party of economic management and largest core of partisans: 40 per cent stability. of voters identified with the Liberal Party in 2000. This meant that the Liberals could win by turning out enough voters from their core while en supported the Liberals, and the at last been eradicated, and tax cuts at least breaking even with indepen- Party lost over 850,000 votes from and credits, the tried and true ele- dent or swing voters. In fact, they did the election of 2008. In 2011, only ments of a Conservative platform, are better than that, winning 40 percent 20 per cent of respondents in a pre- on the way. Once again, the Conser- of independent voters in 2000 com- election survey identified themselves vatives will campaign as the party of pared to 30 per cent for the Alliance. as Liberals, a drop of 50 per cent since economic management and stability. the days of Jean Chrétien. Now, the The most sincere compliment is to once described the Conservatives have the largest base emulate and the Harper Conserva- Liberal Party as a “tough old bird”. of partisans at 30 per cent, still below tives soon became masters of the In 2004, Stephen Harper ruffled its the Liberal high, but loyal, durable Chrétien strategy by turning out feathers and then in the elections of and active. the base, encouraging the splits in 2006, 2008, and 2011, he plucked the opposition and gaining enough the old bird clean. In 2015, he hopes swing votes to replace the Liberals as In Justin Trudeau, the Liberals have a leader with he can finally wring its neck. Then Canada’s dominant party. again, as Winston Churchill famous- the most identifiable name ly said in the Canadian House of arper’s step-by-step demoli- in Canadian politics and Commons in 1941: “Some chicken, tion of Liberal dominance even his severest critics will some neck!” H began with his successful ef- acknowledge that Trudeau is fort to unite the right through the a tremendous retail politician Figures cited are largely taken from The Canadian Election Study, the flagship merger of the Alliance and PC parties. with a sunny personality. project of Canadian social science, which No longer would Liberals enjoy the has surveyed voters in every Federal election split between conservative-inclined since 1965. voters. To the traditional Conserva- tive base of the West (in 2011, Harper Thomas S. Axworthy is a Senior won 67 per cent of the vote and 27 As we approach the 2015 election, Distinguished Fellow at the Munk out of 28 seats in Alberta), Harper there is no obvious crack in the Con- School of Global Affairs and a Senior added Ontario. By courting the eth- servative base, but Harper cannot Fellow at Massey College. He was nic vote, a constituent group identi- afford too many errors. The Con- principal secretary to Prime Minister fied by the Party as ideologically simi- servatives have been very efficient Pierre Trudeau from 1981-84. lar to the Conservative base, Harper in turning out the base, but it is a Rana Shamoon previously worked for offset losses in Quebec. The Conser- smaller base than the Liberals used to several Conservative cabinet ministers vatives swept Ontario, where 28.5 per enjoy. In Justin Trudeau, the Liberals in the Harper Government and is cent of the population was foreign- have a leader with the most identifi- actively involved in preparations for the born, taking two-thirds of the seats able name in Canadian politics and 2015 election. in 2011, including 30 seats in the even his severest critics will acknowl- GTA, the former Liberal fortress. The edge that Trudeau is a tremendous Conservative ballot question on the retail politician with a sunny person- economy registered as voters thought ality. Current surveys place the Lib- Stephen Harper was the best leader erals tied or even slightly ahead of on the economy compared to 11 per the Conservatives, a large jump from cent for Michael Ignatieff. The West- third place in 2011. Ontario base is now as central to Ste- But Stephen Harper has a few things phen Harper’s success as the Quebec- going for him too. Redistribution Ontario axis was to the Liberal Party will increase the number of House in its glory days. of Commons seats by 30, 27 of them The Chrétien era Liberal coalition in the West-Ontario Conservative fell apart in 2011: only 15 per cent stronghold, with 15 new seats in On- of Catholics, 20 per cent of visible tario and six each in Alberta and Brit- minorities and 20 per cent of wom- ish Columbia. The budget deficit has

Policy 17

First Canadian Place in the heart of Toronto’s financial district at the corner of King and Bay. BMO Financial Group Chief Economist Douglas Porter looks at 10 economic and fiscal fundamentals going into this election year. Photo Matthew Liteplo. www.liteplo.com Ten Reasons Why We Can Still Appreciate This Economy Douglas Porter

At the end of a year that closed with an oil-price shock anadian financial markets and 10 months ahead of a scheduled federal election, ended 2014 in a suddenly sour C mood, dimming the outlook BMO Financial Group Chief Economist Douglas Porter for economic prospects in the new looks at the fundamentals of the Canadian economy year. In particular, there has been intense concern over the impact of which, while not “blemish-free” may be living through lower oil prices in Canada, even with what we’ll one day call “the good old days.” the recent run of surprisingly upbeat domestic economic data. While sag- ging commodity prices will no doubt drag on the resource rich areas of the country, there are still a number of improving trends at work as well. For example, there have been steady gains in employment over the last six months, and the jobless rate is close to its lowest level in more than six years.

January/February 2015 18 Still, even the Bank of Canada of- Rising home ownership rates, strong home prices, robust ten highlights the downside risks global equity markets, and good old-fashioned savings for the economic outlook and any have driven household net worth to a record high as a areas of underperformance, while share of disposable income (i.e. after netting out the anxiously awaiting a return to “normal”. Yet, by many metrics, record levels of debt). Put another way, households have Canada has long since returned $5.40 in assets for every $1 of debt. to normal. In fact, we may look back on current conditions as the roughly 5 per cent gains, with av- lower, although the good news for good old days. Consider the many erage prices hitting yet new record consumers will be blunted by the positives at play on the economic highs in recent months. falling Canadian dollar. Concern landscape. 4 HOUSEHOLD BALANCE SHEETS: over “lowflation” is very much a rich world problem, as infla- 1 THE JOB MARKET: This is prob- The nasty stepsister of record home prices is record household debt, tion in developing economies is ably the most oft-cited compo- approaching its highest level in nent of the economy’s underper- which many have highlighted for years. What doesn’t get nearly the nearly two decades (aside from the formance, with many pointing to oil-related spike in 2008). persistent underlying slack (e.g. attention is the rapid rise on the part-time workers who want to other side of the ledger—assets. Ris- 7 TRADE SURPLUS: After dipping work full time). But the simple fact ing home ownership rates, strong into the red for four of the past five is that over the last three months, home prices, robust global equity years, Canada’s merchandise trade our unemployment rate was the markets, and good old-fashioned was headed for a small surplus in lowest in the past 40 years (6.6 per savings have driven household net 2014. True, the black ink is a frac- cent average), aside from a three- worth to a record high as a share of tion of the pre-recession level, and year slice of Nirvana from late- disposable income (i.e. after netting the steep oil price drop threatens 2005 to late-2008 (at the tail end out the record levels of debt). Put an- the gains, but an improving U.S. of the commodity boom). While other way, households have $5.40 economy and a falling Canadian some highlight the fact that the in assets for every $1 of debt. dollar point to non-energy export employment-to-population ratio 5 GOVERNMENT FINANCES: While growth in 2015. Even with the oil is still close to its post-recession the US is celebrating the fact that price dive, we look for the cur- low, this is largely due to demo- Washington’s budget deficit has rent account deficit (the broadest graphics (the early baby boomers dropped below $500 billion, Ot- measure of trade) to stay around retiring). The employment rate for tawa is on course to balance the a manageable 2.5 per cent of GDP 15-64 year olds has been steadily books, even with the increasing in 2015. grinding higher since the 2009 pinch of lower oil prices and the 8 FINANCIAL CONDITIONS: Even low, and was only above current cost of the recent tax relief for par- with the late-year swoon in stocks, levels during the 2006-08 spell. ents. Of course, many provinces Canada’s overall financial condi- 2 CONSUMER SPENDING: While still face important medium-term tions are close to the strongest in the US consumer is finally get- challenges, but overall, net gov- 15 years (topped only by the 2009 ting back to normal, the Cana- ernment debt is slowly receding bounce out of the recession). Con- dian consumer barely blinked again. And, at around 50 per cent tributing to solid financial condi- this cycle. Auto sales are easily on of GDP, it is much lower than tions are low interest rates, tight track to shatter 2013’s record high most of the rest of the OECD. corporate bond spreads, a lower in 2014, headed for 1.88 million 6 INFLATION: Even as much of loonie, strong home prices, and units. That’s roughly 13 per cent the industrialized world grapples easier lending conditions. Accord- above the already-frothy pace in with inflation that’s too low for ing to Bank of Canada surveys, the six years prior to the recession. comfort, Canada’s rate is still very businesses find that credit con- ditions in the past two quarters 3 HOUSING: Another area respond- close to its 2 per cent target. In have been the easiest in 13 years ing in spades to persistently low fact, Canadian inflation rose to of data. borrowing costs is the unstop- 2.4 per cent in October, among pable housing market. While the the highest in the industrialized 9 PRODUCTIVITY: Often cited as big gains in 2014 were largely world. While relatively high in- the weak spot of Canada’s long- confined to the big three cities flation would seem no cause for term economic performance, (Toronto, Vancouver, and Cal- celebration, most major econo- there is even good news on this gary), that doesn’t detract from mies would welcome a small dose front. In the past year, business the broader picture that housing of slightly faster price increases sector labour productivity has surprised—yet again—to the up- at this stage of the cycle. In any vaulted 3.3 per cent, the fastest side in 2014. National home sales event, the steep slide in oil pric- pace since the heady days of the and values were both headed for es is likely to pull Canadian CPI tech boom in 2000.

Policy 19 10 LABOUR PEACE: Workers have Even as much of the industrialized world grapples with not only been much more produc- inflation that’s too low for comfort, Canada’s rate is still tive recently, but they have also very close to its 2 per cent target. In fact, Canadian inflation been much less likely to strike. rose to 2.4 per cent in October, among the highest in the While this is not a particularly industrialized world. new development, it seems to be becoming even more obvious— the number of days lost to work benefits from stronger US activity ed handoff from FY13/14 offsets the stoppages over the past four years and a weaker Canadian dollar, but initial impact of lower oil prices and has been the lowest in Canada low oil prices will weigh. The Bank of new policy measures. Canada will likely not pull the trig- since the mid-1960s. Importantly, the $3 billion fiscal cush- ger on rate hikes until the late fall (or ion remains fully in place through- he list of good news stories even possibly longer if oil prices keep out the forecast horizon, so we could is not to suggest that the Cana- softening), at least a few months after dian economy is blemish-free; the Federal Reserve finally begins to still see balanced books by the time T FY14/15 is officially wrapped up. there are still many areas where im- tighten its policy. This delayed reac- provement is needed. For instance, tion by the Bank of Canada, along Ottawa is targeting a $1.9 billion more full-time jobs, firmer wage with the pull from low oil prices, surplus in FY15/16 and an average growth, a narrower current account points to further weakness in the of $5.4 billion per year in the three gap, and stronger provincial finances Canadian dollar. We look for the subsequent years, quite a bit smaller would all be more than welcome. As currency to dip below 85 cents (US) than expected in the spring, but that well, sagging oil and metals prices in 2015, after averaging just slightly includes the impact of the policy are a drag on the Canadian dollar above 90 cents in 2014. moves announced in October 2014 and will weigh heavily on growth n the fiscal side, the federal and still leaves some margin for error in 2015. But, it is to suggest that government was easily on from lower crude prices. Net debt is this cycle is a lot more mature than track to balance the books expected to gradually fall as a share many give it credit for (including, it O in the coming fiscal year, despite a of GDP, dipping below 25 per cent by seems, the BankBlue - ofPantone Canada), P 100-16 and C we heavy dose of tax cuts and benefit FY19/20—the downward trajectory is shouldn’t overlookGrey - Pantone the Pmany 179-4 Ceco- increases announced in late 2014. a tad less steep now with smaller sur- nomic positives that are already star- However, the deep slide in oil prices pluses ahead. ing us straight in the face. does put that outlook in some dan- OUTLOOK FOR 2015: We look for ger. The deficit for this fiscal year re- Douglas Porter is Chief Economist, Canada’s economy to grow 2.2 per- mains pegged at $2.9 billion (0.1 per BMO Financial Group. cent in the coming year, as growth cent of GDP), as a better-than-expect- [email protected]

January/February 2015 20

Prime Minister Harper speaks to reporters at the closing of the G20 leaders’ summit in Brisbane, Australia. As PM, Jeremy Kinsman writes, he “enjoys an Airbus-borne platform with on-board media channeling stories that spokesmen script.” Jason Ransom, PMO photo For a Pre-election Harper, All the World’s a Stage Jeremy Kinsman

While foreign policy doesn’t usually take up much band- few months before she died, width in Canadian elections, Stephen Harper knows Margaret Thatcher was asked A how worried UK Prime Minister these are insecure times with plenty of international David Cameron should be that his ap- opportunities for convincing voters to stay the course. proval ratings had sunk to the mid-30s. “They should be lower,” was the Iron Former ambassador Jeremy Kinsman argues there’s Lady’s judgment. She explained that also ample space for the case to be made for changing halfway through the mandate is when Canada’s role in the world. he should be unpopular because he should be doing the unpopular, neces- sary things. Then, he would have time to win them back. Is this comforting advice for Stephen Harper, whose approval ratings have generally been lower than Cameron’s? Not really. Prime Minister Harper isn’t unpopular because he has forced Ca- nadians to tighten belts and face harsh facts. Canadians have had a relatively easy time of it. The Pew Center’s polling shows that 55 per cent of Canadians are

Policy 21 pretty much satisfied with the overall On the proposition that “like” Harper or not, he is the economic direction of the country. experienced and hard-nosed leader without illusions Harper is unpopular for reasons that Canadians need in dangerous times. His voter intention have to do with him, his divisive and aggressive partisanship and his secre- numbers, which were in a nosedive, began inching up tive style which many believe is de- steadily after the October attacks in Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu grading of public life. and Ottawa. His approval ratings have crept up commenting on world affairs as prin- Ukraine.” But to Angela Merkel and recently for reasons that transcend cipled spectators, issuing hypotheti- Barack Obama, Ukraine is a practical those considerations, and that have cal policy pronouncements that pret- problem to be solved. In describing much to do with why foreign policy, ty much blow in the wind, although Republican Senator John McCain’s which usually doesn’t compute in the anti-ISIS deployment of CF-18s approach to the issue in The New Canadian elections, is likely to count exceptionally led to a Parliamentary , George Packer could have been for more in 2015. Yorker debate, vote, and controversy. writing about Stephen Harper, as be- Stephen Harper’s claim on a fourth The NDP position was clear going in. ing “more preoccupied with the need term as prime minister is going to be Especially given their base in Quebec, to display toughness against Ameri- staked not on trying to project like- where public sentiment is historically ca’s former Cold War adversary than ability, but on the proposition that with events in Ukraine themselves.” “like” Harper or not, he is the experi- pacifist and isolationist, they were enced and hard-nosed leader without going to oppose participation in any ontrast Harper’s brief but pub- illusions Canadians need in danger- combat operations. The Liberals were licized moment to the four ous times. His voter intention num- less doctrinaire. They realistically hours of late-night negotia- bers, which were in a nosedive, began assessed that Canada’s aging and C tion in Australia behind closed doors inching up steadily after the October expensive-to-operate CF-18s weren’t between Putin and Angela Merkel. attacks in Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu going to change many facts on ene- The German chancellor enabled an and Ottawa. my ground with costly sorties against occasional vehicles in the desert. On exchange to take place that may, with Leadership on Canada’s relations the other hand, the US had less need Ukrainian input, translate eventually abroad and on defending Canadian of value-added effectiveness than of into a solution. Merkel firmly prom- security will still be less decisive than coalition participation as broad as ised Putin that sanctions and distanc- judgment on who will be the best possible. Uneasy about leaving the ing from Russia will not abate without leader to fix issues that Canadians non-combat position in the hands of a change in behavior. She has left Putin care about on the home front (watch the NDP alone, Liberals hoped for an with the job of pretending to Russians out: the Canadian economy lost alternative non-combat military con- that they can weather an economic 10,000 jobs in November while the tribution more aligned to specialties downturn he blames on a malicious US gained 321,000). But the foreign that would be more demonstrably US plot to humiliate and weaken their policy and national security stage of- value-added—protected field hospi- country. When senior Russian officials fers Stephen Harper at least the op- tals for refugees, for example. confide to Europeans that they know portunity to rise above the Ottawa things have “gone too far,” it’s not The PM’s evident hope is that in the trash-talk. A series of events over because of Harper’s stunt but because game of comparisons, Justin Trudeau the fall of 2014 have aimed to posi- Merkel’s straight talk in private left no can be shown up as inexperienced tion his image as a Canadian leader doubt that Russia’s cost-benefit analy- and politically naïve about the world. consorting as a respected equal with sis had been a delusion. the world’s top deciders to confront From his election as Liberal leader, the world’s clear and present dangers, Conservatives tried to frame Trudeau Predecessors, Liberal and Progressive which he is all too happy to magnify. as an elitist son of privilege who Conservative, have pursued Canadi- hadn’t earned Canadians respect, an interests every bit as ardently but The foreign policy and much as they succeeded in bring- have always included among those national security stage offers ing down Michael Ignatieff as “just interests the strengthening of in- Stephen Harper at least the visiting.” But it hasn’t worked with ternational capacity for cooperative opportunity to rise above Trudeau. As Brian Mulroney noted: global outcomes. the Ottawa trash-talk. “What’s not to like?” Canada’s constructive international- Is the image of Stephen Harper as a ism became a definitional part of its world leader, punching above Cana- global brand. That is now gone. Con- da’s weight, grounded in reality? His servative pundits such as Derek Bur- s Prime Minister, Harper en- confrontational tone with Vladimir ney and Fen Osler Hampson deride joys an Airbus-borne platform Putin at the Brisbane G20 summit attachment to internationalism in A with on-board media chan- generated headlines when he told the national interest as “time-warp” neling stories that spokesmen script. the Russian president: “I’ll shake addiction left over from the 1960s NDP and Liberal leaders are limited to your hand, but you need to get out of and 1970s.

January/February 2015 22 Not at all. Only a decade ago, the Eu- Trudeau has to convince Canadians that on Day One ropean Union designated Canada as of a new government, representatives to international one of the EU’s six “strategic partners” organizations will be put on notice that under his precisely and explicitly because of Canada’s commitment to combat cli- leadership, the Canadians are back, again at work in the mate change and because of Canadian long game to make the system work better. leadership in prompting a paradigm change in international norms on is- Germany, France, the UK and the EU Canadian aid will again be about the sues of human security, both key pri- credit that number at a few thousand. reduction of enduring poverty, rely- orities of EU common foreign policy. Yet, Foreign Minister John Baird saw ing on the commitment of our civil “Human security” as a policy empha- fit following a policy statement deny- society and NGOs who have contrib- sis and even as a permissible phrase ing any change in Iran’s political cul- uted so much to our world reputa- has been ruled out at the Depart- ture or posture to distribute a speech tion for engagement but who have ment of Foreign Affairs, Interna- stating Iran should be held to 200 been marginalized, disrespected, and tional Trade and Development. It’s a centrifuges, clearly a non-starter for a defunded by a controlling top-down typically tribal repudiation of a suc- sovereign country. What does Baird, government machine. Canada will cessful international campaign that who unprofessionally shut our em- be ready and willing to do heavy emerged from a Liberal government, bassy in Tehran, know that the deeply military lifting through our alliances and in effect repudiates the efforts engaged allies have somehow missed? and in service of the UN, but not as part of a cartoon cult of the “warrior made by many Canadians as well as In Canada, critics see the syndrome nation.” Canadian interests will be the credit they garnered for the coun- as part of the dicing and slicing of vigorously pursued with commercial try. A former member of the Board of domestic ethnic electoral constitu- partners but supported by the en- the Pearson Peacekeeping Centre in encies. I have no doubt that Stephen hanced profile and access of a coun- Nova Scotia, which partnered around Harper’s admiration of Israel’s nar- try again demonstrably interested in the world in the cause of conflict me- rative is sincere. But I sure doubt his diation and resolution, sought clarity problem solving as well. A new prime support for the state of Israel surpass- from a PMO staffer for the reasons be- minister will enable a fresh start in es that of fellow conservatives Angela hind the withdrawal of government relations with the presidents of the Merkel or Nicolas Sarkozy, or for that support that led to the Centre’s clos- United States and Mexico and the op- matter that of the vast majority of ing. “Two words,” was the answer— portunity to strengthen our common Canadians. But unlike others, Harper “Pearson” and “peacekeeping.” economic space. shows not even a pro forma recog- rime Minister Harper has nition of what life must be like for Above all, the Liberals—and the NDP never given a convincing Palestinians in today’s circumstances —have to help Canadians again be- speech on climate change. He and has locked himself into the more lieve that a constructive role in the world matters to them. The Prime P confrontational side of Israeli atti- is vulnerable to a suspicion he is at home among the diminishing num- tudes. In consequence, Canada has Minister seems to need foreign en- ber of crank deniers of a global threat no influence nor potentially positive emies to bolster his projection as a on which the US and China have be- role in any search for a resolution to strong leader but he’s lost when it gun to make progress. For all intents the enduring conflict. comes to promoting solutions. His and purposes, Canada has no policy, The opposition has the chance to belligerent approach to domestic though we are the one country that present an alternative vision. Marc policies is an extension of his dire desperately needs to put one forward, Garneau, the Liberal foreign affairs outside threat assessment, painting especially to help the president of the critic, sums up the Trudeau approach his adversaries as ill-equipped to deal United States help Canada on the this way: “From finger-wagging and with reality when what he markets is . lecturing to practical engagement an age of fear. These are fundamen- tal and even existential issues. It will The Harper government’s declara- and problem-solving: a new foreign be fascinating to see how they play tory impulse is too often uninformed policy for Canada.” That will be mu- out in what could be a defining na- macho lecturing from the outside. sic to a lot of ears but music alone tional election. US strategic interests are heavily in- won’t do it. Trudeau has to convince vested in difficult negotiations with Canadians that on Day One of a Jeremy Kinsman was a long-time a moderating but still defiant Iranian new government, representatives to Canadian ambassador under government for a verifiable agreement international organizations will be Liberal and Progressive Conservative that averts an Iranian nuclear weap- put on notice that under his leader- Governments and now holds positions on. Crucial to the outcome will be ship, the Canadians are back, again at at the University of California, the number of Iranian centrifuges in work in the long game to make the Berkeley, and Ryerson University. He operation, adequate for peaceful pur- system work better, that Canada is participates in a non-partisan group poses but short of enrichment poten- more interested in solving vital prob- that periodically meets to discuss tial to build a bomb. Well-informed lems than in hectoring people about global issues with Justin Trudeau. experts from US negotiating partners them, and that Canada can listen. [email protected]

Policy 23

The Road to Paris and COP21 runs through Campaign 2015 in Canada. Will the environment and climate change be an election issue? Will Canada be a leader of a laggard on climate change and global warming? Shutterstock photo Will the Environment be Election Road Kill on the Road to Paris? David McLaughlin

This year sees two seminal political events for Canada: s the three major Canadian po- a general federal election and a major global climate litical parties prepare to roll out A their policy priorities ahead of change conference in Paris designed to agree on a new this year’s election, there are two major binding treaty on limiting carbon emissions after 2020. externalities to factor into their think- ing on the environment: The UN Cli- The environment generates a lot of political heat but mate Change Conference in Paris—be- typically has not driven voting preferences in Canada. ginning just a month after the October Canadians are primarily concerned with jobs and the vote—and the U.S.-China agreement on economy. All the parties are wary of the political com- carbon emissions. But to what extent those external factors plexities of climate change policy and how the aver- will influence platform formulating here age voter sees it. The Liberal “Green Shift” carbon tax will hinge on where the environment fits platform of 2008 still resonates. But oil sands develop- in the election-year public psyche. For all the policy linkage between a strong ment and pipeline projects are current hot-button issues economy and a healthy environment, in linked to climate change and the Harper government’s Canadian politics it is the inverse that is own climate policy target for 2020 will not be reached. true. A weak economy means less public So, will this year be different? attention on the environment. As jobs and the economy rise as a personal con- cern, environmental concerns drop.

January/February 2015 24 This has been the Canadian pattern certainly argued the environmental of tax reform was never effectively for some time. The figure below from benefits of doing so. It echoed British communicated and understood or Environics Research Group illustrates Columbia’s successful introduction accepted by the electorate, leaving the priority trade-off Canadians have of a carbon tax that same year. But the economic calculus as the most made on the economy and the envi- Dion’s campaign fell short illustrat- salient one. ronment over the years. Asking Cana- ing in part the risks of this approach. It is this last point that remains a dians what was the most important Three reasons account for this. condition precedent for significant po- problem facing them between 2007 litical action by governments on the and 2011, it shows environmental environment. issues trumping economic issues in 2007 but falling off completely after Even though concern about the envi- that when the global financial crisis ronment was close to concern about hit in 2008 and Canada entered eco- the economy generally for Canadians nomic recession. While economic at the time of that election (as seen in concerns moderated subsequently, Figure 1) as a voting issue motivating environmental concerns did not rise people, the economy still trumped it. in response. Nothing suggests this By the time of the 2011 election, the dynamic has reversed itself. Conservatives won their first majority government on the basis of two core This makes campaigning on the en- In the 2008 campaign Liberal leader Stéphane Dion proposed his Green Shift to implement appeals, one positive and one nega- vironment a less assured strategy a carbon tax while cutting income taxes and tive: strong economic management for political parties. All major party increasing social spending. That didn’t go very under Harper and manufactured fear platforms in 2015 will note the envi- well. The Liberals lost. about a coalition opposition govern- ronment. How central this will be to ment. The environment was simply each party’s election strategy remains First, it was characterized as a ‘tax ignored. the question. on everything’ by opponents, mak- The closest example of an environ- ing its economic impact much more he 21st United Nations Con- ment/economy election in Canada concerning to voters than any envi- ference of the Parties (COP occurred in 2008. The “Green Shift” ronmental benefits it would bring. T 21), scheduled for November election promise by Liberal leader Second, Dion’s own leadership skills 30-December 11, guarantees a year Stéphane Dion returned Stephen were never readily accepted by voters of rising attention on climate change Harper’s government to office with a who failed to see him as a potential issues and Canada’s carbon reduc- strengthened minority. Dion’s Green prime minister, making him an inef- tion ambitions. Its goal is to achieve Shift platform of implementing a fective agent of this type of complex a legally binding, successor treaty carbon tax while cutting income policy change. Third, the environ- to both the and the taxesMost and important increasing problem social facing spending Canadians mental today need for such a strong dose Copenhagen Accord for limiting and

Figure 1: Most Important Problem Facing Canadians Today

45 43

20

14 10 10 11 6 7 4 5 6 * 0 0 Au O N Ja F Mr Ap My Jn Jl Au S O N D Ja F Mr Ap My Jn Jl Au S O N Ja Mr Jn S N Mr Jn S N 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 Economy/unemployment/ Health care Poor government Environment Gas/fuel prices personal finances

Source: Environics Research Group, 2011.

Policy

Figure ES-1:Progress on Canada’s 2020 Target (Mt CO2 eq)

900 Without Measures 850 857 Mt Projected Contribution 800 eq

2 to Target = 130 Mt 750 727 Mt 700 Additional Reductions 650 Required = Megatonnes of CO With Current Measures 116 Mt Canadian Target 611 Mt 600

550 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 25 reducing GHG emissions after 2020. icy commitments. Even though the binding” agreement. Canada called This is a tall order but one that places actual negotiating meeting takes for all countries to make contribu- obvious political pressure on Cana- place after the election, all countries tions with this proviso: dian performance and commitments. are requested to submit their pro- “…Parties’ contributions under a new To date, Canada’s carbon reduction posed post-2020 commitments in agreement will be differentiated to re- performance has been fitful and inad- advance, by March, 2015. This guar- flect unique national circumstances and Most important problem facing Canadians today equate to meet our target of reducing antees public focus not just on the capabilities. We recognize that Parties emissions 17 per cent below 2005 lev- politics of the positioning of the Con- need to continue to grow their economies els by 2020. The governing Conserva- servatives, Liberals, and New Demo- in order to achieve sustainable develop- ment while reducing emissions well into tives’ plan is to take a sector-by-sec- crats, but on their substantive plans. tor regulatory approach, as has been the future. Various domestic factors will done for fuel efficiency standards for Compared to both meeting shape Parties’ efforts to reduce emissions, cars and trucks but not for oil and its own GHG target and including for example the structure of gas, while letting provinces contrib- by any international their economy, population growth, the ute on their own accord. comparison, Canada cost of abatement, geography and45 cli- mate.” There is little here to suggest a Figure 2 shows progress to date in remains a serious climate 43 policy laggard. In a 2013 shift in the government’s current ap- achieving the 2020 target. This lat- proach is forthcoming. First, it trum- est chart released by Environment performance index of the pets economic growth over environ- Canada20 shows that without addi- biggest global emitters, mental mitigation. Second, it takes tional measures, Canada will miss its Canada ranked last among all issue with conventional scientific as- target 14by 116 megatons or almost 50 industrialized nations as well sessment on the need to act now10 10 to 11 percent. as within the G8 countries. reduce emissions only “well into6 the7 4 5 6 Compared* to both meeting its own future”. This explains why the0 Prime0 GHG targetAu O andN Jaby anyF Mr internationalAp My Jn Jl Au S O N D Ja F Mr Ap My Jn Jl Au SMinisterO N JacharacterizedMr Jn S N globalMr Jn SeffortsN comparison,07 07 07Canada08 08 remains08 08 08 a 08seri08- 08 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09on09 climate09 10 change10 10 10 this10 way:11 11 11 11 ous climate Economy/unemployment/policy laggard. In a 2013 Health care Poor government “No Environmentmatter what they say,Gas/fuel no country prices is performancepersonal index finances of the biggest going to take actions that are going to global emitters, Canada ranked last he federal government’s ap- deliberately destroy jobs and growth in among all industrialized nations as proach to Paris was formal- their country. We are just a little more well as within the G8 countries. (see ized in a June, 2014, submis- frank about that…” (June, 2014) Figure 3) T sion to the UN. It calls for “nation- The only consistent feature of the COP 21 promises to ramp up the ally-determined contributions” from government’s climate policy ap- pressure on parties to detail their countries of GHG mitigation targets proach has been on the means to goals for Canada’s next climate pol- as part of an “internationally legally reduce emissions. It will not bring in

FigureFigure 2: Progress ES-1:P Towardrogress Canada’s on Canada’s 2020 GHG Emissions2020 Ta rgetReduction(Mt CO Target2 eq)

900 Without Measures 850 857 Mt Projected Contribution 800 eq

2 to Target = 130 Mt 750 727 Mt 700 Additional Reductions 650 Required = Megatonnes of CO With Current Measures 116 Mt Canadian Target 611 Mt 600

550 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Source Environment Canada Emissions Trends, 2014.

January/February 2015 26 any form of economy-wide or sector- in Paris. Should this hold, it places willing to match the US, thereby un- specific carbon pricing scheme, call- major pressure on Canada to go be- dermining a key component of Cana- ing it “job-killing”. No matter the yond its current 2020 commitments dian climate policy. effectiveness of such a measure in and offer to reduce emissions further. None of the other parties’ final envi- reducing emissions as seen in British ronmental platforms have been an- Columbia, for example, it will not With the US now going nounced as election year begins. But countenance it. further, then Canada must elements of each are already in play decide to either concur based on leaders’ statements. dding to this pressure is a sig- with the US despite not nificant new commitment in being on track to meet In a speech to the Economic Club of A November, 2014, by the the original 2020 target or Canada in December, 2013, Opposi- world’s two largest emitters—China consciously show that it is tion Leader Tom Mulcair stated: “We will rise to meet our international and the United States—to limit and not willing to match the reduce their own emissions. China climate change obligations by creating a US, thereby undermining a cap-and-trade system that puts a clear will peak its emissions by 2030 and key component of Canadian reduce subsequently; the US is now market price on carbon. We’ll use the setting a new reduction target for climate policy. revenue generated by that cap-and-trade 2030, for the first time committing system to reinvest in the future of our en- to reducing emissions 26 to 28 per- ergy sector.” cent below 2005 levels by 2025, with Many important details are lacking, “best efforts” to hit the higher end of Second, it illustrates the dilemma for including: the actual carbon price, that range. Canada in adopting climate policy timing of implementation, link to This is meaningful for two reasons: targets aligned with the United States. 2020 or other targets, economy-wide First, it is the first time China is com- With the US now going further, then vs. individual sector coverage, trad- mitting internationally to domestic Canada must decide to either con- ing allowances, and so forth. Each of reductions. This highlights the pros- cur with the US despite not being on these is material to determining both pect of a global deal involving all ma- track to meet the original 2020 tar- the effectiveness and the impact of jor emitters (a Canadian policy goal) get or consciously show that it is not such a policy. But it is also materi-

Figure 3: Climate Change Performance Index for OECD Member Countries

Rank Country Score RankRank CoCountryuntr y ScoreScore RankRank CountryCountry ScoreScore 4 Denmark 75.23 17 Slovak Republic 63.17 40 Czech Republic 53.93 5 United Kingdom 69.66 18 Italy 62.90 42 New Zealand 53.49 6 Portugal 68.38 19 Germany 61.90 43 United States 52.93 7 Sweden 68.10 20 Mexico 61.50 45 Poland 52.69 8 Switzerland 66.17 22 Spain 60.37 47 Greece 51.50 10 France 65.90 23 Luxembourg 60.27 50 Japan 47.21 11 Hungary 65.17 24 Norway 59.32 53 Korea 46.66 12 Ireland 65.01 29 Austria 57.19 54 Turkey 46.47 13 Iceland 64.89 31 Netherlands 56.99 57 Australia 41.53 14 Belgium 64.65 32 Finland 56.57 58 Canada 40.39

© Germanwatch 2013 Figure 4: Climate Change Performance Index for G8 Countries

Rank CoCountryuntr y ScScoreor e RankRank CoCountryuntr y ScScoreor e RankRank CoCountryuntr y ScScoreor e 5 United Kingdom 69.66 19 Germany 61.9 0 56 Russian Federation 43.64 10 France 65.90 43 United States 52.93 58 Canada 40.39

18 Italy 62.90 50 Japan 47.21 © Germanwatch 2013

PERFORMANCE Very good Good Moderate Poor Very poor

Source: GermanWatch, CPPI, 2014.

Policy 27 ally different than the Conservatives’ Think of climate change as a “sword” or “shield” issue for approach. the parties; the former being offensive, the latter defensive. Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have been The NDP and Liberals cite climate change in order to less explicit on their climate change contrast offensively with the Conservatives, letting them say policy. But he has been consistent on the Conservatives have done little to tackle this issue. the need to price carbon as part of it, as he stated in a speech to the Calgary Petroleum Club in October, 2013: “I would have joined and contributed to NDP favour a cap-and-trade system the latter defensive. The NDP and the provincial government, industry, and while the Liberals have not pro- Liberals cite climate change in order civil society efforts to build a national nounced. It is this ambiguity on de- to contrast offensively with the Con- energy strategy. Part and parcel of that tails but clarity on carbon pricing that servatives, letting them say the Con- strategy ought to be a national approach continues to allow the Conservatives servatives have done little to tackle to pipelines and development, within an to label the NDP and Liberals as both this issue. The Conservatives, know- overall framework that includes a policy being in favour of a “carbon tax”, ing they are weak on climate action, that puts a price on carbon pollution.” cite carbon tax as their sword issue even though neither has stated such. against the opposition, knowing o, both opposition parties agree Politically, think of climate change they need to shield themselves from on the need for some form of as a “sword” or “shield” issue for the neither caring nor acting on climate S carbon pricing in Canada. The parties; the former being offensive, change. It buttresses their position-

Figure 4: Canadians on Global Warming—By the Numbers

The science is conclusive that global warming is happening and caused mostly by human activity. 63% Canadians as a whole 42% Conservatives

The science is not yet conclusive that global warming is happening. 10% Canadians as a whole 21% Conservatives

Concerned about changes in climate due to global warming. 51% Canadians as a whole 31% Conservatives

Not concerned changes in climate due to global warming. 14% Canadians as a whole 25% Conservatives

Canada’s performance compared to other countries on climate change. Better Job. 34% Canadians as a whole 46% Conservatives

Canada’s performance compared to other countries on climate change. Worse Job. 28% Canadians as a whole 12% Conservatives

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Source: Environics Research Survey Institute, Detailed Tables 2014.

January/February 2015 28 ing as the ‘low tax’ party and deflects every question, in every category, will be vulnerable at this point based the argument to the economy rather self-identified Conservative party on their failure to meet their own than the environment. supporters are less inclined to believe 2020 target and their likely prevarica- This simple framing—useful for po- the science of climate change is real, tion on committing to anything sub- litical messaging, as we saw in 2008— the issue is of significant concern, or stantive beyond. It will be up to the will carry through to election day. more actions need to be taken. Not opposition parties to use this to get Who stands to profit? surprisingly, Conservative supporters the attention of voters if they are to are also more likely to believe Can- have a real chance of making 2015 a These poll results show ada’s climate performance is better climate change election. than other countries. (See Figure 4) Canadians are more If the outcome is a minority ambiguous about acting on Conservatives are plainly more satis- government, as polls climate change and makes fied with the government’s climate suggest, then climate the likelihood of climate change approach. The Conservative politics will become much change becoming a top Party’s ‘shield’ is working—enough for its own supporters. more relevant to Canadians 2015 election issue less with a subsequent election guaranteed. lections are unpredictable. looming. There is no guarantee a party’s E intended campaign strategy will hold as outside events, oppo- nents’ stumbles, and media coverage Public opinion tells a less forthright influence voters. What is clear is this: Much of the action will, in political story. New research released by the • Conservatives are vulnerable on Environics Institute for Survey Re- the issue of climate change but terms, occur after the federal elec- search and the David Suzuki Founda- it has not risen to a salient vot- tion, in December rather than in Oc- tion in November, 2014, shows Ca- ing issue for Canadians. The tober. If the outcome is a minority nadians believe 63 per cent to 33 per economy continues to trump the government, as polls suggest, then cent that there is scientific evidence environment. climate politics will become much that global warming is occurring and more relevant to Canadians with a • There is a clear policy distinction is caused by human activity. They subsequent election looming. The between the Liberals and NDP on are also concerned about the effects year 2015 may then prove quite de- the one hand and the Conserva- of climate change and would like to cisive for climate change politics in tives on the other in their climate see Canada take “significant new ac- Canada, but its real impact could be policy positioning. The other tions” by almost 90 per cent. in an election to come. parties will be splitting this vote, The issue is not as clear-cut in two which leaves a strong minority David McLaughlin is Strategic Adviser other areas: perception of Canada’s pool for the Conservatives. overall climate performance (where on Sustainability at the Faculty of 34 per cent of Canadians believe we • Conservatives will campaign Environment, University of Waterloo. are doing a better job than other against carbon taxes rather than He was the last president and CEO countries, compared to 28 per cent for more climate change action. of the National Round Table on who say the opposite) and overall They will paint the Liberals and the Environment and the Economy. concern about climate change (with NDP as ready to bring one in. [email protected] 50 per cent saying they are very or • A core of Conservative support re- definitely concerned compared to mains in their camp and basically 48 per cent who say they are some- satisfied with the government’s what or not at all concerned). Taken actions to date or suspicious of cli- together, these poll results show Ca- mate change reality. nadians are more ambiguous about The road to a global climate deal in acting on climate change and makes Paris in 2015 remains an uncertain the likelihood of climate change be- one for the world, let alone Cana- coming a top 2015 election issue less dian political parties. The initial po- guaranteed. litical skirmish will come in March, The most compelling public opin- when the government must submit ion results about possible Conserva- publicly its negotiating position on tive action on climate change can be post-2020 emission reductions to the found in the party breakdowns. For United Nations. The Conservatives

Policy 29

Prime Minister Brian Mulroney at the wheel of his press bus in the 1988 campaign. When the election writ dropped, his government’s $6.4 billion universal child care bill died on the Order Paper in the Senate because of a Liberal filibuster over the free trade bill. In today’s terms, the child care package would have been worth twice that amount. archives Family Policy in the 2015 Election: Back to the Future Geoff Norquay

The broad outlines of the current debate over the federal s we look ahead to the issues government’s role in child care support date back to the that will dominate the 2015 fed- A eral election, it’s clear that family 1980s, when the influx of women into the full-time policy will be high up the list. The reason work force of the previous two decades put pressure on is obvious: the head-to-head confronta- Ottawa to formulate a national child care policy. As tion between NDP Leader Thomas Mul- cair’s national child care proposal and former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney tells his former Stephen Harper’s family tax cut package, social policy adviser Geoff Norquay, his government’s both revealed last fall. solution was a compromise that should have worked. In the past 30 years there have been three The same stakeholders who made that impossible will major attempts to hit the reset button on family policy in Canada. First, there was be highly vocal in the upcoming election campaign. the Mulroney government’s child care

January/February 2015 30 strategy of 1987-88, followed by the The Mulcair/Harper proposals represent the two divided Martin government’s child care plan sides of family policy, child care versus broader tax support of 2005. The choices on offer from for families with children. Only the Mulroney proposals Mulcair and the Prime Minister today actually unified the child care/tax support divide into a present another two conflicting vi- comprehensive and balanced family policy. sions from which to choose. Looking back over the history of family policy, it is instructive to con- sider what has changed and what has stayed the same in this long-run- Parental views across the coun- Introduced in December of 1987 with ning debate. The Martin and Mulcair try diverged as well. Among those a promise to create 200,000 new child proposals both narrow the idea of families where only one spouse was care spaces across the country, the family policy to child care. The Mul- working outside the home, there National Strategy on Child Care had cair/Harper proposals represent the was strong support for increased three key components: two divided sides of family policy, tax breaks for stay-at-home par- • The Canada Assistance Plan child care versus broader tax support ents. They argued they should not would be amended to expand for families with children. Only the be “disentitled” because one spouse cost-sharing for the operating Mulroney proposals actually unified chose to stay home and not make costs of both non-profit and com- the child care/tax support divide use of formal child care. mercial child care services, and to into a comprehensive and balanced provide expanded cost-sharing family policy. Finally there was the child for operating costs as well as en- The Mulroney plan was very much a care advocacy community, riched support (75 per cent fed- product of the social changes sweep- whose members had one eral/25 per cent provincial) for ing the country in that period. Be- objective and one objective capital costs, but only for the tween 1961 and 1980, the percentage alone: universal, fully- public, not-for-profit sector. of married women in the paid labour accessible, publicly-funded • A seven-year Initiatives Fund of force in Canada jumped from 22 per and publicly-run institutional $100 million would fund deliv- cent to 50 per cent, and these swell- child care, or nothing at all. ery innovations such as “non- ing ranks put huge pressure on the profit community-based child country’s child care resources. By the care services.” 1980s, child care was funded through • Tax assistance to families with the social services provisions of the young children would be in- Canada Assistance Plan, the joint fed- creased by raising the child care And finally there was the child care eral-provincial cost-sharing arrange- deduction in the Income Tax Act, advocacy community, whose mem- ment created in 1966. and refundable child tax credits bers had one objective and one objec- would be introduced for parents tive alone: universal, fully-accessible, rovinces had taken starkly dif- caring for their children at home. ferent approaches to delivering publicly-funded and publicly-run in- child care. Some had taken ad- stitutional child care, or nothing at The Mulroney family P all. For them, any money spent via vantage of federal cost-sharing and package represented a pursued the public provision route, the tax system to recognize the costs federal commitment of $6.4 while others had opted to develop of families raising their children at billion over seven years, their services through the licensing home, or to support the care of chil- or $11.2 billion in today’s of commercial, for-profit child care dren in commercial centres, was an unacceptable diversion of funds away dollars. This was a huge centres. Most provinces had vary- financial commitment for a ing mixes of the two approaches. In from creating the public and univer- sal child care system they demanded. government at that point addition, provinces also ranged sig- running a $30 billion annual nificantly in their fiscal capacities If the Mulroney child care plan was deficit and facing a rising and many were wary of a huge new a product of its time and shifting national debt. spending commitment. They want- demographic realities, it was also a ed to see stronger federal leadership delicately balanced compromise de- and greater assistance with growing signed to bow towards a complex set child care costs, but they were con- of constituencies at the same time. cerned about their ability to provide No side was going to get everything it All in, the Mulroney family package the matching funds required by the wanted, but there were a lot of posi- represented a federal commitment Canada Assistance Plan. tives to go around. of $6.4 billion over seven years, or

Policy 31 $11.2 billion in today’s dollars. This With the 1988 federal election fast approaching, time ran was a huge financial commitment out on the legislation and having already passed in the for a government at that point run- House, it languished in the Senate. There, the Liberals, led ning a $30 billion annual deficit and by Senator Allan J. MacEachen, effectively killed the bill by facing a rising national debt, even refusing to pass it before the election was called. though the deficit was falling year over year, government spending had been restrained, and the rate of in- crease in the debt had been signifi- cantly reduced. of whom were likely to vote PC. The world outlook was bleak, and that a Looking back today, former Prime advocates and the opposition made recession was on the way,” he recalls. Minister Mulroney points out that common cause and demanded that “But not to worry, they told me, be- he had every confidence that a grow- every penny of the promised federal cause Canada would have a ‘soft ing national economy, buttressed by funds be devoted to the institutional landing.’ As I recall it, the landing the recently signed 1987 Canada-US bricks and mortar approach. was anything but soft.” Free Trade Agreement, would pro- Throughout this period, PMO made As we approach the upcoming de- vide the funds necessary to support several attempts to bring around the bate over family policy in the 2015 the investment. “I felt,” he says to- opponents of the bill. Among them federal election, it is clear that while day, “that the positive impacts of free was a Langevin Block meeting in the social landscape has seen some trade, combined with the GST reform mid-1988 with the child care advo- change, many of the arguments have we were planning, were going to gen- cates who continued to demand that stayed the same. The proportion of erate significant economic wealth the family-friendly tax measures be two-earner families has grown since and job creation for the country. So withdrawn and that all of the federal the late 1980s, and many families we could sustain this program.” investment be directed towards pub- still struggle with the costs of child Mulroney had another reason for licly-sponsored child care spaces. At care. The child care system itself re- putting his faith in child care and it one point in the meeting, PMO col- mains mixed, with publicly-run, pri- was a political one. In a meeting with league L. Ian MacDonald asked the vate for- profit providers, parental co- his pollster Allan Gregg that fall, advocates, “What if we miss this win- operatives and family home day care he recalls that Gregg had expressed dow and the bill dies on the Order options all on offer. Quebec’s $7.50 his “worst fears that the focus on Paper when the election is called? It per day public system has been a ma- the mercantile aspects of free trade may never come back.” The response? jor innovation, but it is hugely costly threatened to cast the Progressive “Oh, that would never happen.” and serious questions are being raised Conservatives as little more than a about its financial sustainability by Well, actually that’s exactly what did bunch of black-hearted accountants. Premier ’s Quebec happen. With the 1988 federal elec- So I went with the child care package Liberal government, which is intro- tion fast approaching, time ran out because it met an obvious social need ducing a sliding scale of fees accord- on the legislation and having already and to counteract that argument ing to parents’ ability to pay. passed in the House, it languished in politically.” the Senate. There, the Liberals, led The modern debate over family poli- The first part of the strategy, namely by Senator Allan J. MacEachen, ef- cy began in the 2006 federal election the increase in the child care ex- fectively killed the bill by refusing to campaign, when then prime minis- pense deduction and the refundable pass it before the election was called. ter Paul Martin committed $5 billion child care tax credit, was brought in over five years to create 250,000 new for the 1998 tax year. The balance of id the child care initiative re- child care spaces by 2009. By 2006, the package, the federal-provincial turn after the election, (the most of the provinces had signed on funding changes, including the en- one, by the way, in which to the program and it was in the early D stages of implementation. Conserva- hanced funding for both capital and the free trade issue dominated all dis- operating cost, was all contained in cussion)? It did not and for a variety tive opposition leader Harper made Bill C-144. of reasons. Issues changed, new chal- his family policy alternative a key lenges and priorities emerged, the part of the 2006 campaign—a prom- he institutional child care lob- government moved on to other ques- ise to roll-back the Liberal program by, backed by the Liberals tions. Also, as former PM Mulroney and to provide instead a $100 per and NDP, strenuously attacked recalls, the economy unexpectedly month universal child care benefit. T Once in office, Harper collapsed the the income tax aspects of the pro- turned for the worse. “The Depart- gram as a cynical attempt by the gov- ment of Finance paid me a visit that Liberal program and brought in the ernment to curry favour with conser- fall after the election to warn that the tax break. vative stay-at-home parents, many economic numbers had changed, the Interestingly, the Martin child care

January/February 2015 32 program was taken down by the An interesting aspect of the debate is sure to be the Harper Conservatives with nary a question of who gets what benefits under the two opposing ripple of public outcry, suggesting schemes, and how fair is the distribution of those benefits? perhaps that there was not nearly as much support for the Liberal plan as they had assumed. In addition, prov- inces were still wary of federal pro- grams creating public demands for earning spouse in a couple with An interesting aspect of the debate is matching provincial commitments, children to transfer up to $50,000 sure to be the question of who gets so they did not complain loudly at of income to the lower-earning what benefits under the two opposing the demise of the Liberal program. spouse, also known as “income schemes, and how fair is the distribu- splitting”; tion of those benefits? Mulcair will go Mulcair’s return to a national • An increase to the Universal Child hard against the tax progressivity of child care plan is in the Care Benefit, from $100 to $160 the income splitting approach, and grand tradition of such a month for each child under Harper will counter that if income approaches; the question is the age of six, plus a new $60-a- splitting is fair and works well for se- whether it is still relevant, month payment for each child niors, it can hardly mean the end of and how families with between six and 17; and the world for tax fairness if it is ap- plied to one income earner families children will assess the two • A higher income tax deduction with children up to a $2,000 cap. in the upcoming election for child care expenses, to $8,000 campaign. a year from $7,000. And an in- Mulcair will argue that the Harper ap- crease in the tax deduction for proach delivers far too many finan- child care expenses for children cial benefits to middle and upper in- with disabilities from $10,000 to come-earning families, but will likely $11,000. say nothing about the redistributive impacts of his child care plan. Given n many ways, then, the 2006 cam- Given that most users of that most users of child care are dou- paign re-set the terms of the fam- child care are double-income ble-income families with small chil- I ily policy debate in Canada. The families with small children, dren, it stands to reason that more of muted public and provincial reaction it stands to reason that more the financial benefits of public child to Harper’s abolition of the Liberal of the financial benefits care are delivered to middle income child care plan gave him free reign of public child care are family units than to poor and single to pursue the tax support alternative delivered to middle income parent families. to the exclusion of the child care ap- family units than to poor Ladies and gentlemen, start your proach. In that light, Mulcair’s return and single parent families. engines. to a national child care plan is in the grand tradition of such approaches; Contributing Writer Geoff Norquay, the question is whether it is still rele- a principal of the Earnscliffe Strategy vant, and how families with children Group, was senior social policy adviser will assess the two in the upcoming to Prime Minister Mulroney from election campaign. o, the lines of debate over family 1984-89. [email protected] policy in Campaign 2015 have Mulcair has promised an initial four- already been drawn. It will be year plan to fund 370,000 new child S the traditional bricks and mortar care spaces at an annual federal cost child care approach versus ensuring of $1.9 billion to be transferred to the that “parents have choice in the type provinces, on a 60/40 cost-sharing of child care that works best for their basis with the provinces. After eight family,” as the PM’s spokesperson re- years, the federal share would reach cently told the Globe and Mail. $5 billion annually. At this point, the Liberals have been Harper has countered by building largely absent from the family and on the family tax breaks he brought child care debate other than leader in back in 2006, with three new Justin Trudeau opposing income initiatives: splitting as a tax break for the rich— • A tax credit with a cap of $2,000, affluent parents such as Harper and calculated by allowing the higher- himself.

Policy 33

Minister of State for Social Development Candice Bergen taking a question on the Harper government’s family package in the Commons. House of Commons photo More than Income Splitting: The Harper Government’s Child Care Solution Candice Bergen

While the three major parties will spend much of the hen it comes to life choices next six months rolling out their policy platforms, the such as careers, how to raise W children, and preferences debate on child care has already begun. The NDP has regarding child care, Canadian fami- proposed a national child care program, outlined by Tom lies are as varied as our nation’s land- scape. Coming from rural Manitoba, I Mulcair in this issue of Policy, and the Conservative gov- experienced first-hand that one-size- ernment has opted for enhanced benefits and tax breaks. fits-all solutions are not realistic, nor Here, Minister of State for Social Development Candice are they generally helpful. Admittedly, my experiences raising children, both Bergen provides a spirited defence of that option. in rural and in urban settings while balancing work and family commit-

January/February 2015 34 ments, have informed my views as Of the 46 per cent of families who reported using child care Minister of State for Social Devel- for their children in the past year, approximately 33 per opment: Government investments cent used formal daycare, 31 per cent used home daycare, should, as much as possible, go di- and 28 per cent made their own arrangements, such as rectly to those impacted by a partic- grandparents, other relatives or nannies. ular policy. In the case of decisions surrounding child care, it’s parents. This is the underlying philosophy differentiating the Harper govern- ties of families across the country dif- working schedules with the other ment from other political parties. The fer greatly, especially when it comes parent, also resulting in varied hours, belief that money is better directed to to what type of child care arrange- in order to allow for extra time with decision makers rather than to large ment works best for their unique situ- the children. Some have special ar- and expensive government programs ations. Results from a recent Statistics rangements to allow each parent is what led to the recent policy an- Canada Survey on Child care in Can- to be able to attend their children’s nouncement of the Family Tax Cut ada showed that parents don’t just extra-curricular activities. Some rely and Benefits package. rely primarily on one type of child on other family members or friends for their child care needs, while some Overall, the proposed measures will care arrangement. provide approximately $4.6 billion have one parent that has chosen not in annual relief to about four million In fact, of the 46 per cent of families to work outside of the home. And families. In fact, all families with chil- who reported using child care for then there are single parents who dren under the age of 18 will receive their children in the past year, ap- may or may not be sharing parenting a direct benefit and, as I’ll explain, proximately 33 per cent used formal responsibilities with another person. an overwhelming majority of these daycare, 31 per cent used home day- Not to mention that in rural and re- benefits will go to low- and middle- care, and 28 per cent made their own mote areas, government-run daycare income families. arrangements, such as grandparents, is sometimes simply not feasible. There are three main elements to the other relatives or nannies. plan, all designed to direct resources hatever the case is, it can- to individuals and families to spend Then there are single not be disputed that each on what they deem important. parents who may or may W family faces a unique set of circumstances and they deserve The first element is the Family Tax not be sharing parenting responsibilities with another choices to make the best decisions for Cut. This new federal non-refundable their own situation. tax credit recognizes that under Can- person. Not to mention that ada’s personal income tax system, a in rural and remote areas, Under the Harper government’s one-earner couple, or a two-earner government-run daycare plan, the UCCB will increase to $160 couple in which one spouse earns sig- is sometimes simply not per month (up from the current nificantly more than the other, often feasible. $100) to parents of children under pay more federal personal income tax the age of 6. Additionally, the UCCB than a two-earner couple who has the will be expanded for older children same combined income, but where aged 6 through 17 by providing par- the spouses have equal earnings. Taking just these numbers into ac- ents of these children with a bene- count, the NDP plan would help only fit of $60 per month. And families Under the Harper government’s a small fraction of the 46 per cent of currently receiving the Child Tax changes, the higher-income spouse families who rely on child care. Benefit will continue to do so, at will be able to, in effect, transfer up the exact same level of funding. All to $50,000 of taxable income to a In fact, because the NDP plan would families with children under the age spouse in a lower income tax bracket only be providing formal daycare of 18 will receive direct funds under for federal tax purposes, up to a maxi- spaces it would help less than 10 these new benefits. mum benefit of $2,000. This will pro- per cent of the 4 million families in The changes to the UCCB will take vide about $2.4 billion in tax relief in our country overall. By contrast, the effect as of January 2015 and begin 2014-15 and $1.9 billion in 2015-16. Harper government’s plan provides Over 1.7 million families are expect- to be reflected in monthly payments direct support for 100 per cent of Ca- ed to benefit from this new income to recipients in July 2015. As a result, nadian families. splitting measure. more than two million new families Their plan also fails to take into ac- will now benefit—for a total of about he second element is the en- count parents who work outside of 4 million families nationwide. hancement and expansion nine-to-five hours. Many families It’s clear that the intention of the T of the Universal Child Care choose careers that demand shift- UCCB is not to subsidize or cover all Benefit (UCCB). The needs and priori- work. Some decide to coordinate child care costs. That’s simply not re-

Policy Chart 1: Relief from the Proposed New Measures as a Share of Federal Income Tax Paid, Families with Minor Children, by Family Income (2015)

35 Chart 1: Relief from the Proposed New Measures as a Share of Federal Income Tax Paid, Families with Minor Children, by Family Income (2015)

More than 100%1 100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

31% 30%

21% 20% 17% 13% 9% 10% 4% 0% under 30,000 30,000 – 60,000 – 90,000 – 120,000 – Over 180,000 Total 60,000 90,000 120,000 180,000 FAMILY INCOME (DOLLARS)

1 This group of families would receive more benefit than the amount of federal income tax paid.

Source:Department of Finance. alistic. Rather, it is meant to be a fi- The Harper government has also an- new billion-dollar programs that will nancial support to empower and en- nounced a doubling of the Children’s only help a few parents with child able parents to do what they believe Fitness Tax Credit to $1,000 to further care needs is not in the best inter- is best. help families with costs associated est of all Canadian taxpayers. When As well, it should not be forgotten with their children’s fitness activities. it comes to the role of government, that since 2006, the federal govern- While families at all income levels directing money to primary decision ment’s social transfers to the prov- will benefit from the new measures, makers for them to invest according inces and territories have increased it’s clear that low-and middle-in- to their needs is paramount. Because by nearly 50 per cent. Alongside come Canadians would receive pro- they are the ones who are most di- a new 25 per cent investment tax portionately greater relief as a share rectly affected and are best placed credit to businesses that create new of federal income tax paid, as seen in to make decisions. That’s why these child care spaces for their employ- Chart 1 above. policies for families are purposely de- signed to empower Canadian parents ees, this funding has been used to About 68 per cent of the tax relief and create more than 216,000 daycare benefits provided by the proposed rather than impose a “government spaces across the country. measures would go to low-and mid- knows best” ideology upon them. The final element of the govern- dle-income families (i.e., those with Candice Bergen is Minister of State ment’s new package is a $1,000 in- family incomes less than $120,000 for Social Development. crease per year, per child, in the dol- a year). Further, those with annual [email protected] lar limits of the Child Care Expense family incomes below $30,000 would Deduction in each category. This receive 25 per cent of the benefits and allows child care expenses incurred relief provided by these measures. while earning employment or busi- ness income, pursuing education or overnments should not tell performing research to be deducted parents how to raise their from income for tax purposes. G children. That’s why creating

January/February 2015 36

NDP Leader Tom Mulcair proposes a national child care program at $15 a day. He writes: “It’s not uncommon for families to pay more for child care than they do for their mortgage.” NDP photo Affordable Child Care: A Smart Investment in a Priceless Resource Tom Mulcair

Families in which both parents work have been com- er voice betrayed exasperation, monplace for decades. Yet Canada still lacks a national frustration and more than a child care policy. Ten months before the scheduled fed- H little confusion. This was late last summer, and I was meeting with eral election, Leader Tom Mul- parents and early childhood educators at cair, reasserts his focus on the issue as both a social Waterloo’s Emmanuel at Brighton Child and economic priority. Care Centre. Heather Stuart, mother of three, was among them. She told me how, after she moved to the region, a neighbour had shared a helpful warn- ing: if she wanted a child care spot, she

Policy 37 would need to line up the day before It’s not uncommon for families to pay more for child care registration began. than they do for their mortgage—as much as $2,000 Heather ended up camping outside monthly per child. In Toronto, a single woman making the centre overnight in February. As I the median wage might have to spend her entire month’s heard her story, I wondered how this income for one child care space, if she can find one at all. could possibly be. Parents are literally freezing in our dark Canadian winters just to find a spot in our child care system. (I note that Emmanuel has These stories should be a wake-up just five years, yet—in their ninth now moved to a central list so par- call to anyone who thinks we can year in power—they’ve yet to create ents don’t have to line up overnight.) keep waiting for a national child care a single space. plan. Ottawa’s outdated approaches Parents weren’t just freezing through and misplaced priorities are putting the night for child care spots, they The Liberals promised a clamp on our economic future. If were paying through the nose for universal affordable child Canada is going to succeed, the fami- them, and still are. In Waterloo, care in their first Red Book lies who make it work can’t be falling parents were lining up for spaces in 1993—yet they refused to behind. That’s going to take a differ- that would cost them $1,016 each act until their government ent vision for government—one that month. Many pay more. Today, it’s was set to be thrown out seizes opportunities and adapts for not uncommon for families to pay over the sponsorship scandal the future, one that recognizes the more for child care than they do for role government must play alongside 13 years later. In 2006, the their mortgage—as much as $2,000 business, and that doesn’t ignore the Conservatives promised to monthly per child. In Toronto, a challenges facing parents like Heath- create 125,000 new child single woman making the median er Stuart. care spots in just five years, wage might have to spend her entire yet—in their ninth year in month’s income for one child care amilies with two working par- power—they’ve yet to create space, if she can find one at all. ents have been commonplace a single space. When parents today manage F for decades. All over the world, governments have adapted to mod- to find a quality child care ern realities. Yet in Canada, parents, space for one of their kids, and women in particular, are still it can feel like winning the Canadian parents deserve better. missing work or downgrading jobs That’s why I’ve laid out a plan for a lottery. Then, when they see because they can’t find reliable care. national early childhood education the price tag, it can feel like According to key OECD indicators, and child care program. New Demo- they’ll have to actually win early childhood care and education crats believe parents should be able the lottery to cover the bill. in Canada lags behind other devel- to find the quality child care spaces oped countries, including Norway, they need without paying more than Sweden and France. $15 a day per child. The Royal Commission on the Status In short: When parents today man- This won’t be easy, but I am com- of Women first proposed a national age to find a quality child care space mitted to getting to work immedi- child care program in 1970. In the for one of their kids, it can feel like ately with provinces, territories and 45 years since, we’ve seen federal winning the lottery. Then, when indigenous communities. Our goal governments acknowledge the need they see the price tag, it can feel like is to fund and develop national early for action yet utterly fail to deliver. they’ll have to actually win the lot- childhood education and child care In 1984, the Liberal government tery to cover the bill. programs delivered with common struck the Task Force on Child Care. principles such as universality, af- I’ve met with countless parents over When it recommended a national fordability, quality, accessibility, in- the past few months—each with child care program in 1986, the Mul- clusivity and accountability. We will their own unique needs and circum- roney government ignored the find- enshrine the program in legislation stances. Time after time, I’ve felt not ings. The Liberals promised univer- with measurable benchmarks, public- just their frustration but their genu- sal affordable child care in their first ly-available reporting and long-term ine confusion. Many simply can’t Red Book in 1993—yet they refused predictable funding so provinces and fathom that in the 21st century, Ca- to act until their government was set communities can plan ahead. nadians could be forced to line up to be thrown out over the sponsor- overnight and empty their bank ac- ship scandal 13 years later. In 2006, Quebec is already a leader when it counts just to meet their child care the Conservatives promised to cre- comes to providing affordable child needs. ate 125,000 new child care spots in care. This is a success story to em-

January/February 2015 38 brace and build upon. New Demo- our future. The Harper government crats believe the federal government made its priorities painfully clear in can play a positive role to support October, when it committed billions Quebec’s efforts and help maintain of dollars to an income-splitting tax affordable child care services. scheme that offers no benefit to 85 per cent of Canadians. This desperate s a cabinet minister in Que- attempt to curry favour with a small bec, I saw this success story segment of voters will cost more than A firsthand. After Quebec’s $2 billion a year—with most of the child care program was implemented, benefit going to households with an- women in particular were able to par- nual incomes over $150,000. ticipate in the labour force at a much higher rate. Creating new child care The reviews have not been kind to jobs and increasing women’s labour Stephen Harper. While economists force participation boosted the Que- and business leaders are stepping for- bec economy by $5.1 billion a year. ward to back the case for a Canadian This is the sort of smart investment child care plan, even think tanks like Canada needs to make to compete in the C.D. Howe Institute are dismiss- the 21st century. ing the Conservatives’ tax schemes. I recently met with the Surrey Board While a child care plan could help of Trade in British Columbia. These build Canada’s future, the Conserva- business leaders are advocating for a tives are more concerned with pre- national child care plan because they paring for the next election. “Expanding child care access benefits our realize it’s the kind of support a mod- children and helps build for our future,” writes I think Canadians expect more from ern work force needs. Among par- Mulcair. He adds: “I want every family in us. That’s what I heard from Heath- ents with young children, incomes Canada to have that opportunity.” NDP photo er Stuart. That’s what I’m hearing have stagnated in real terms since the from parents from coast to coast 1970s, while child care and housing serve a fair start and the evidence is to coast. And that motivates me to costs have increased. This struggle overwhelming that early childhood move forward with the solutions to keep pace with the cost of living education can help provide that. Canadians deserve. hurts employers. Citing research by Studies show that beginning reading the University of British Columbia’s activities at 18 months can contrib- My wife Catherine and I raised two Paul Kershaw, the board notes that ute to a child’s reading ability and boys, who both went to daycare. Our work-life conflict among employees help maximize a child’s vocabulary. grandson turned one this past spring. with preschool-aged children costs Early childhood education programs Our granddaughter is at that age of the B.C. business community more can also help to identify learning insatiable curiosity about everything than $600 million annually, and the or developmental delays at an early in the world—and she too benefited Canadian business community more stage, and provide children and par- from quality child care. I understand than $4 billion. ents with appropriate support. how important it is to give our kids a good start, with quality care in Expanding child care access Governments that say they can’t af- ford to invest in affordable child care a stimulating, supportive environ- benefits our children and ment. I want every family in Canada helps build our future. are wrong. What we can’t afford is further delay. After 12 years, Quebec’s to have that opportunity. Quality, Education and skills child care investment has more than affordable child care is a clear signal development are keys paid for itself through mothers’ high- that we value not only our children’s to success in life and the er income taxes and consumption future, but our country’s as well. learning that occurs during taxes, according to Pierre Fortin, an those first few years is vital. economics professor at l’Université Tom Mulcair is Leader of the du Québec à Montréal. For every dol- New Democratic Party and Leader lar invested, $1.75 is returned to pro- of the Opposition. vincial and federal governments. Not [email protected] Expanding child care access benefits many investments can offer such lu- our children and helps build our fu- crative returns. ture. Education and skills develop- ment are keys to success in life and For too long, governments have ig- the learning that occurs during those nored the real challenges facing first few years is vital. All children de- families and avoided planning for

Policy 39

Protesters demonstrating against TransCanada’s proposed Energy East pipeline route along the South Shore of Quebec, including a proposed marine terminal at Cacouna, a breeding area of the Beluga whale, an endangered species. In Quebec, the environment is an election issue. Montreal Gazette photo Quebec and Campaign 2015: TOM MULCAIR IS NOT JACK LAYTON AND JUSTIN TRUDEAU IS NOT MICHAEL IGNATIEFF Bernard St-Laurent

Quebec surprised the rest of the country in 2011 by ast November 19, about 1.3 sweeping Jack Layton’s NDP into Official Opposition million Quebecers tuned in L Radio-Canada’s popular TV Sun- status in the House of Commons. Polls ahead of the day night talk show, Tout le monde en 2015 election show that Justin Trudeau could rob Tom parle. Many viewers wanted to find Mulcair of the chance to coattail on that Orange Wave. out to whom Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, the 24-year-old former student lead- Mostly, Quebec voters are keen on the person most like- er, was going to donate the $25,000 ly to beat Stephen Harper. And, they have other issues. he received along with the Governor General’s French language award for non-fiction. At 24, Nadeau-Dubois is the young- est person to receive the prize, which

January/February 2015 40 was created in the 1930s. The hand- Environmental issues in Quebec, especially those connected some, charismatic and passionate to oil transport, have taken on enormous significance since sovereignist said he had struggled the catastrophic train derailment which killed 49 people at over whether or not he would accept Lac-Mégantic in July 2013. the prize. He finally agreed when he learned it celebrates the arts and liter- ature. More importantly, the money Quebecers have also long felt a spe- to 23 per cent of the popular vote, comes from the Canada Council for cial connection to the beluga whale, while they plummeted from 47 to the Arts and not directly from the which is native to the St. Lawrence only four seats in the House, losing Queen’s representative in Canada. River. recognized party status and staff, The very idea that the port would be to say nothing of visibility in ques- built in the heart of the beluga’s calv- tion period. The Bloc virtually disap- ing grounds made the project seem peared from the news cycle. even more outrageous. The fact the The BQ had been on a steep down- federal government declared the Be- ward slide, even before members luga an endangered species and that elected Mario Beaulieu, a divisive, Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard hard-nosed separatist as their leader told TransCanada to build the port last June. Two MPs, half the remain- elsewhere, while the project is under ing Bloc caucus, have since quit over review by the National Energy Board, his hard line on Quebec sovereignty. hasn’t changed the underlying anger EKOS and Ipsos Reid surveys in late toward the project. Former student activist Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, 2014 both suggested Bloc support 25, tells 1.3 million viewers on Tout le monde ew Democratic Party leader may have bottomed out. Beaulieu has en parle that he’s donating his $25,000 prize for the Governor General’s award for non-fiction Thomas Mulcair knows the not backed down from the hard line. to Energy East pipeline opponents. Radio- impact an appearance on He attacked former leaders of the par- Canada image N Tout le monde en parle can have in ty, denouncing what he described as Quebec society. Nadeau-Dubois, or GND as he is an attitude of complacency and de- known, announced he would donate In 2011, the NDP swept 59 out of 75 featism. He even forced media mogul his prize money to a tiny collective seats in Quebec. Clearly, that historic Pierre Karl Péladeau, the front runner of grass-roots community organiza- breakthrough happened thanks in in the race to become the new leader tions that is fighting TransCanada’s part to Jack Layton’s performance on of the Parti Québécois, to backtrack Energy East plan to build a pipeline Tout le monde en parle during the cam- after Péladeau publicly questioned paign. When the smiling man with across Quebec and set up a deep the pertinence of the Bloc. the cane received a standing ovation water port at Gros-Cacouna, near from the studio audience during the Rivière-du-loup. he last thing the NDP wants rehearsal on his first appearance ear- is to get into a battle with the The author of Tenir tête (Headstrong) ly in the campaign, it was clear that Bloc on such a polarizing is- told viewers he had set up a crowd T something big was going on. sue as the pipeline. Fortunately for sourcing site and called on them to So, on the Tuesday after Nadeau- Mulcair, Nadeau-Dubois told me he match his donation in order to: “fight Dubois began his crowd sourcing never personally takes a position in the powerful interests supported by crusade, Mulcair published a long federal elections. But like it or not, the federal government who want op-ed piece in La Presse denouncing the Energy East project will be an is- to impose a project on us which will the federal government’s approach, sue in the next election. More than in transform our country (Quebec) into calling for sweeping environmental any other province, the environment a freeway for petroleum from the oil evaluations and flat-out rejecting the is always an issue in Quebec. sands,” he said. Cacouna port proposal. By all accounts, most of the Quebec Nadeau-Dubois asked viewers to That positioning is important be- NDP MPs have been present and ef- match his $25,000. Six days later, cause the Bloc Québécois is the only fective in their ridings. In 2011, Ruth when he shut down the website, he federal party categorically and pub- Ellen Brosseau became the symbol had collected $385,330. licly opposed to the pipeline and of token candidates, or poteaux (tele- Environmental issues in Quebec, es- the port. phone polls) the NDP was offering pecially those connected to oil trans- up to fill its roster of standard bearers port, have taken on enormous sig- rancophone Quebecers left in Quebec, when she ran in Berthier- nificance since the catastrophic train the Bloc in droves to support Maskinongé, northeast of Montreal. derailment which killed 49 people at F the NDP in the last election. A single mother then working as Lac-Mégantic in July 2013. The Bloc’s vote shrunk by nearly half a manager of a campus bar at Car-

Policy 41 leton University, she took a week off The last thing the NDP wants is to get into a battle with the during the campaign to take a long- Bloc on such a polarizing issue as the pipeline. Fortunately scheduled vacation in Las Vegas. But for Mulcair, Nadeau-Dubois told me he never personally in the Layton sweep, she won her takes a position in federal elections. But like it or not, the Joliette-area riding by 10 points over Energy East project will be an issue in the next election. the Bloc.

Only months after the election, local is far from being despised. In fact, a members of the National Assembly mayors were already praising her for survey conducted for Abacus data in who now sit as MNAs for the conser- the interest she was taking in their November 2014 states “Trudeau is vative-minded Coalition Avenir Qué- issues and how hard she was work- seen as conveying the best image of bec, led by Francois Legault. ing at representing them in Ottawa Quebec and Quebecers elsewhere and So far, no one has said yes to Lebel’s where, as NDP deputy agriculture better at motivating people to follow critic, she has become an effective invitation. Only Gérard Deltell, the his leadership”. champion of supply management in CAQ member for the dairy and poultry, key agricultural In 2011 the Liberals were only able riding of Chauveau, has kept the sectors in Quebec. to hold on to ridings in the Montreal door open to a possible run. But Del- region that were concentrated in al- tell sees himself as a true conservative n the south shore of Mon- lophone and anglophone areas. and has serious misgivings about re- treal, NDP MPs are highly In 2015, the first seats the Liberals signing his seat in the legislature and O visible in the campaign to should win back are those with the provoking a costly by-election. prevent the Conservative govern- same demographic profile in Montre- Most public opinion polls show the ment from establishing tolls on the al’s West End, on the West Island, in Conservatives at or below their 2011 new Champlain Bridge. In the East- Laval north of Montreal and on the score. So the likely best-case scenario ern Townships, Pierre-Luc Dusseault, south shore. is for them to hold onto the four seats the youngest member in the history There is no better sign that a party is they own in the rural areas across of the country has maintained high- making a comeback than how hotly from Quebec City on the south shore profile fights against cuts to Canada contested the candidate nomination of the St. Lawrence as well as Lebel’s Post and for a respectable airport in own 418 riding in the Saguenay, but the Sherbrooke region. meetings are. Results for the selection of a Liberal candidate in the riding of no more. Mulcair will need the hard work on Laval-les-Iles are under official review Political analysts often talk about the ground put in by his Quebec MPs after a fierce race that pitted members to keep the NDP in the fight to hold the “mirror effect” between Quebec of the local Greek, Lebanese and Ar- and Ontario. If voters are not pas- a majority of seats in the province in menian multicultural communities the next election. sionately committed to a party or a against each other. specific leader, they will take a look That’s because, in spite of all he is across the Ottawa River at which doing right, when it comes to voters tephen Harper’s Conservatives way their neighbours in the other hearts, Tom Mulcair is no Jack Lay- won only five seats in Quebec in province are leaning and decide if ton and Justin Trudeau is not Michael S 2011, with 16.5 per cent of they will go along. Ignatieff. In 2011, the NDP took 59 the vote. An optimistic objective for seats in Quebec with 43 per cent of the Conservatives would be to jump The Abacus poll report showed Que- the vote and the Liberals held on to from five to 10, in the new 338-seat bec francophones have a preference seven with only 14 per cent of the House of Commons, in which Que- for Mulcair and the NDP. But the vote. bec’s representation will increase by same survey also showed that a clear majority of francophones will vote Many observers had predicted that three ridings, from 75 to 78 seats. All for whomever they believe can beat Trudeau would be incapable of re- three new seats are in the Montreal building the Liberal Party in Quebec. region, where the Conservatives are Stephen Harper. And for the time be- They expected he would not be well weak. Their strength, such as it is, ing, they apparently believe that per- received in Quebec, unable to over- is concentrated in the 418 region in son is Justin Trudeau. come his father’s legacy, which, un- and around Quebec City. Bernard St-Laurent is the host of like everywhere else in the country, is Early in 2014, Denis Lebel, Stephen C’est la vie on CBC Radio One. negatively associated with the patria- Harper’s , began He is the CBC’s senior political tion of the Constitution over Que- trying to recruit top candidates for analyst in Quebec. bec’s objections. the next election. He met with mu- [email protected] But as it turns out, while it’s true nicipal mayors from the Mauricie Mulcair is seen as competent and in- region, former Liberal cabinet minis- tune with Quebec values, Trudeau ters in the Charest government, and

January/February 2015 42

The winner: John Tory and his wife Barbara Hackett as he wins the mayoralty of Toronto. What does the Toronto election portend for Campaign 2015 in the GTA? Shutterstock photo Lessons From the Toronto Election For the GTA Federal Vote Patrick Gossage

With their focused appeal to new Canadians in the 2011 he recent municipal elections in election, the federal Conservatives were able to take a Toronto and the wider Greater T Toronto Area were closely significant bite out of the swath of seats in the subur- watched in Ottawa, and rightly so. ban Toronto 905 area code. And in the recent Toronto There are 23 federal seats now in To- ronto—the 416 area code—and 22 in municipal elections, the immigrant and minority-heavy suburban 905. What voters responded inner suburbs remained loyal to Doug Ford and his so- to going to elect their mayors is an in- cially conservative platform. Perhaps a good sign for the dication of issues and strategies that may move them in October 2015 fed- Conservatives. But in an election that will be dominat- eral election. ed by local and regional targeting, the Liberals and the The Conservatives’ focus on new Cana- Trudeau effect will be an important factor. dians in the 2011 federal election—in the GTA and especially the 905—con-

Policy 43 tributed in large measure to their In Toronto, the Conservatives might take some comfort in achievement of a majority. Where the fact that a right-of-centre establishment figure, John the Conservatives held 11 seats in Tory, squeaked a victory over Rob Ford’s brother, Doug, a 905 at last dissolution, they won 21 social conservative who was a late arrival in the campaign. out of 22 in 2011. And where they had no seats in 416, and hadn’t won a seat in the city since 1988, they won nine out of 23 seats in Toronto itself. In the new 338-seat House of to goes, the immigrant and minority- tober 2015 approaches. In the GTA Commons, there will be 15 new seats heavy inner suburbs remained loyal ridings won by Peter Kent and Joe Ol- from Ontario, 10 of them from the to Ford and his socially conservative iver, Harper’s unrelenting support of GTA, including seven from 905 and platform. Perhaps a good sign for the Israel ensured support from the large three from 416. Conservatives. Jewish vote. In an Ipsos-Reid/Global News poll The Toronto election was also a published in early December, the ot to be overlooked is Ford’s policy victory for continuing avoid- Liberals were ahead in Toronto’s 416 amazingly successful cam- ance of raising taxes. This feeds the region with 46 per cent of the vote, N paign strategy of focusing his Conservative playlist. Public sector with the NDP at 26 per cent and the campaign on Tory’s privileged back- austerity is now received wisdom Conservatives at 25 per cent. In the ground. This very Republican strategy at every level of politics in Canada. 905 region, the Conservatives were at was evident when Ford told those Take the absurd counter claims made 41 per cent, with the Liberals at 37 most suffering from high unemploy- by Tory and Chow promising various per cent and the NDP at 20 per cent. ment and reduced expectations that versions of “no new taxes.” This will an $800 a plate lunch “is more money be echoed in the federal campaign as So what were the positive and nega- than some families make in a week!” Mulcair and Trudeau fight over who tive signs for federal parties in the He went on to claim that Tory “is is the best guardian of the public latest Toronto municipal vote? In To- down there to represent the down- purse. Harper has likely already won ronto, the Conservatives might take town elites,” throwing in “the lobby- this debate. some comfort in the fact that a right- ists” and “political insiders”—obvi- of-centre establishment figure, John ously those who don’t care about the owever, in a federal elec- Tory, squeaked a victory over Rob travails of the working family. tion that will be dominated Ford’s brother, Doug, a social conser- This strategy might appeal to the by local and regional tar- vative who was a late arrival in the H Conservatives in taking what’s left of geting, the Liberals and the Trudeau campaign. He came within 64,000 the Liberals’ fortress Toronto. Harper effect will be an important factor. votes of the frontrunner. The left- tried it in a speech to a Conserva- In the October 27 by-election in leaning , widow of Jack tive convention in the fall of 2013: Whitby-Oshawa, a “safe” Conser- Layton, was a distant third. “Were not the party of entitlement, vative seat occupied by the late Jim On the other hand, in the 905 races not guided by power or privilege.” He Flaherty, the Liberal candidate came of Brampton, Markham, Mississauga may not want to go that far again, but within 8.5 points of the Conservative and Vaughan, mayoral candidates his people are watching and all the and the NDP was reduced to a very with backgrounds in federal or pro- goodies and tax breaks for families is distant third with only eight per cent vincial Liberal positions beat out the in direct line with this kind of strat- of the vote. The Conservatives need competition. egy. So is Justin Trudeau’s pedigree as the NDP to do much better than that So, it’s a challenge to parse the mean- the son of a wealthy prime minister. in vote-splitting with the Liberals ing of these outcomes. But a closer Trudeau rails against divisive poli- across the 905. look at the Toronto race reveals fasci- tics, which are so much part of the Overall, recent municipal and by- nating divisions that remain between Conservatives’ playlist, simply be- elections results have been bad news the inner city and inner suburbs, cause divisions exist and can be ex- for the NDP. In Toronto, the “pro- divisions so well exploited by Ford ploited. Finding local wedge issues gressive” left was well represented that Tory’s “One Toronto” slogan with which to leverage support are by Chow. She talked after-school looks a bit empty compared to vot- a fact of the new political landscape. programs for kids, youth employ- ing patterns in the two distinct areas. The cheap politics of setting one sec- ment and social housing and was The continuing polarization between tor of the population against another well ahead in polling in the spring, poorer immigrants and the struggling almost worked for Ford. Harper’s ap- only to see her lead dissolve as Tory’s denizens of the inner suburbs and peal to the immigrant and suburban slick transit- centred appeal and dis- the old downtown “elites” may fore- vote is more subtle, but we will see ciplined campaign seized the “any- shadow trends that will echo in the more policy directed to their specific body but the Fords” vote. She start- next federal election. As far as Toron- needs and concerns in the 905 as Oc- ed 20 points ahead, and finished 20

January/February 2015 44 points behind. It’s clear that old style Degraded infrastructure and unsustainable levels of social NDP rhetoric, and its focus on the housing pose a far larger conundrum for cities. They are less advantaged members of society, unable alone to solve the social and transportation issues increasingly falls on deaf ears. And that so affect their working poor due to one of the most Trinity-Spadina, her old downtown troubling current realities. Toronto seat, fell in a by-election to Trudeau Liberal recruit, former city councillor Adam Vaughan. Unfortunately for the NDP, in this in enhanced urban goodies. trumps social spending, and that environment, “have-nots” get left “wasteful government” spending and behind as income gaps grow. A guar- Degraded infrastructure and unsus- a feeling of disconnect between vot- anteed annual income – recommend- tainable levels of social housing pose ers and “elites” can still be exploited ed in 1985 by the Macdonald Royal a far larger conundrum for cities. politically. Commission—is a long dead issue. They are unable alone to solve the so- Federally, we will be left with tinker- cial and transportation issues that so It’s somewhat shameful that the ma- ing at the edges of major national is- affect their working poor due to one jor fiscal challenges facing cities are sues like child poverty, social housing of the most troubling current reali- unlikely to light up the next federal and the plight of aboriginal peoples. ties. The federal government has so election. And that suburban, inner If Barack Obama—who once called many ways to generate revenue and urban divisions will be exploited income inequality “the defining issue cities have so few. However much cit- rather than bridged, as I vainly hoped of our time”—has barely mentioned ies and provinces (particularly Ontar- in a spring article for this magazine. it since, can we really expect any of io) continue to rail against Ottawa’s John Tory ran on the slogan of “One our politicians to dare address this di- unwillingness to more fairly divide Toronto”. We are still a long road vision in our society? And the NDP, the revenue pie, it’s doubtful any away from any federal party running as it tries to become a centrist party, federal government would willingly on “One Canada”. is unlikely to make this even a rhe- meet these demands. Hardly a ballot Contributing Writer Patrick Gossage is torical plank. question federally, in any case. the founding chairman of Media Profile, So, on balance, the results in the GTA a Toronto-based communications he “average Canadians” most overall—short of major and daring consulting firm. A former press affected by budget balancing pro-urban policy moves by Trudeau secretary to Pierre Trudeau, he was a and tax reductions are those T —demonstrate that big new spend- communications adviser to the Olivia that rely most on the services that get ing may not garner votes, that sta- Chow mayoralty campaign. cut as a result. This connection be- bility and good management still patrick.gossage@mediaprofile.com tween reduced services and tax cuts has been poorly exploited by other parties for obvious reasons. A critical policy that helped Tory win in Toronto poses a huge challenge for federal parties. His multi-billion “Smart Track” for new above-ground transit requires major federal and pro- Exclusive || Digital Indepth vincial funding. The Conservatives’ piecemeal and short-term approach to infrastructure funding shows little promise of coming to his rescue. So far, Trudeau has not released any more generous urban agenda. How- +HST ever, Adam Vaughan was lured into $12/month running by a Trudeau promise to for new subscribers address housing and transit in his platform. He is spearheading a social housing strategy that will be part of Contact iPolitics today the Liberal pitch to urban voters. 613.789.2772 ext.241 | [email protected] | www.ipolitics.ca Both Conservatives and Liberals will be looking riding by riding in the GTA to see how many votes there are

Policy 45

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May writes that contrary to voter apathy and even suppression, “where Greens succeed, voter turnout soars.” House of Commons photo The Issue in 2015: Democracy’s Declining Health Elizabeth May

In an impassioned plea for reform, Green Party Leader predict that 2015 will be the year Elizabeth May argues that the major issue of the 2015 of the Green. Dismiss it as wish- I ful thinking, but no national media federal election should be not climate change or ener- coverage anticipated that I would win gy diversification but the sorry state of our democracy. a federal seat in Saanich-Gulf Islands, From our first-past-the-post electoral system to low voter nor that Andrew Weaver would win a provincial British Columbia riding in turnout to our all-powerful PMO to the circus of question Oak Bay-Gordon Head, nor that David period, May argues that Canadian democracy is in des- Coon would win a seat making the New perate need of an overhaul. And, P.S.: Her participation Brunswick Greens the third party in in campaign debates is part of it. that province. Recent Green wins in municipal races on Vancouver Island have begun to get some attention, but, for the most part,

January/February 2015 46 stories noting that Greens are rising Our perverse and archaic voting system–“First-Past-the- in the polls tend to be attached to Post” (FPTP)—the winner-take-all variety of distortion of the questions about “blips” and “parked wishes of the electorate, contributes to this malaise. votes.” It will dawn on political pundits slowly that Green votes are actually being cast to elect Green representatives. Coon’s victory made NB Greens an While looking at the evidence of officially recognized party in that recent elections, it should be noted We still face a near-hysteria against province, Fredericton South had over that in the election in which the voting Green from NDP and Liberal 70 per cent turnout. In other words, Green Party won the most votes supporters who strangely seem to Greens don’t win when the voting (nearly one million in 2008) the think those parties are sufficiently public is turned off, disgusted or Harper Conservatives were held to a aligned with Greens that we should cynical. Greens win when voters are minority. When the media and the just wither and die. Of course, if the turned on, hopeful and inspired. larger parties succeeded in excluding NDP and Liberals had ever put the a Green voice in the 2011 debates, climate crisis ahead of their narrow- When the media and the our vote plummeted and Harper est short-term political advantage, larger parties succeeded in got his coveted majority. The Green Stephen Harper could never have Party went to Federal Court to argue formed a minority parliament in excluding a Green voice in that the public interest and fairness 2006, nor in 2008. (In fairness, a ca- the 2011 debates, our vote veat: Stéphane Dion did try, but the plummeted and Harper got in the use of the public airwaves NDP reaction to any cooperation his coveted majority. The demanded our inclusion in the de- with Greens was swift and vicious). Green Party went to Federal bates. Our argument was rejected by The preoccupation about “vote split- Court to argue that the a then-little known Federal Court ting” relies on tapping into voter fear public interest and fairness judge—Marc Nadon. and anxiety so effectively that the in the use of the public There is a lot of irrationality inspiring thinking process becomes paralyzed. airwaves demanded our “strategic voter” panic. Thinking it through, it would be ob- inclusion in the debates. Our vious that the real problem is not argument was rejected by For the average Canadian, how many people voted Green in re- a then-little known Federal it is counter-intuitive, if cent elections, but the terribly large Court judge—Marc Nadon. not irrational, that parties number of people who did not vote generally on the same side at all (in 2011, this was 10 times as of the left-right spectrum many as those who voted Green.) reserve their harshest attacks The single largest voting bloc in the for each other. Demonizing last few elections has been the 40 per What turns voters off voting? the party with the closest cent of electors who opted to stay policy overlap to your own home. That number exceeds those The nastiness and ad hominem attacks of question period contribute to vot- party is a routine tactic to who actually chose to mark an X next spike strategic voting panic. to the name of a Conservative candi- er disgust and reduced voter turnout. date—39.6 per cent of the 60 per cent I believe this is the motive of those in who voted —or approximately 24 per PMO who script the contemptuous cent of those with the right to vote. responses for question period. To be Our problem is not vote-splitting; our clear, these responses are not merely problem is vote abandoning. contemptuous of the questioner; evertheless, the kernel of le- such “answers” are contemptuous of gitimate grievance is at- Parliament. mpirical support for this argu- N tached to the FPTP vot- ment comes from the fact Our perverse and archaic voting sys- ing system. No other voting system E that in constituencies where tem—“First-Past-the-Post” (FPTP)— allows for the election of a major- Greens succeed, voter turnout soars. the winner-take-all variety of distor- ity of seats with a minority of votes. In 2011, in Saanich Gulf Islands, we tion of the wishes of the electorate, The fear of strategic voting fuels the had nearly the highest voter turnout contributes to this malaise. Belief in nastiness of hyper-partisan spin. For in Canada: just shy of 75 per cent the effectiveness of a vote begins to the average Canadian, it is counter- (only PEI ridings were higher). In wane when the majority of votes in intuitive, if not irrational, that parties 2013, when Weaver became the first riding after riding is essentially dis- generally on the same side of the left- Green MLA in B.C., Oak Bay-Gordon carded once the “winning” candidate right spectrum reserve their harshest Head had the highest voter turnout has rung up a minority of the total attacks for each other. Demonizing in B.C. And in New Brunswick, when —putting him (or her) over the top. the party with the closest policy over-

Policy 47 lap to your own party is a routine tac- the public purse have been hijacked been controlled by an elected dicta- tic to spike strategic voting panic. In by the trend toward presidentializing tor. Sure, Jean Chrétien ran a “Friend- the early 1990s, stopping a Conserva- the role of prime minister. Canadians ly Dictatorship” as Jeffrey Simpson’s tive from voting Reform was assisted need to push the leaders of both large book was titled. But never in our through the two-step plan—threaten opposition parties to commit to dis- history has PMO felt empowered to that voting Reform will “split the mantling the PMO as an instrument script parliamentary committees and vote” and elect a Liberal, and throw of total control. We need to restore block amendments—even those de- in some attacks on Reform for good the fundamentals of Westminster signed to fix drafting errors. Never measure. Once the right consolidat- Parliamentary democracy. We need before has legislation been drafted ed with the creation of the Conser- to insist that MPs be restored to our knowing that it will likely fail a Char- vative Party of Canada in 2003, the constitutional role—representatives ter challenge. We have never passed NDP and Liberals followed the same of our constituents—not robotic en- laws primarily designed to provide plan: threaten the voter and demon- forcers of the party “brand.” slogans in an election campaign. ize each other. If Canada voted using The Green Party already walks this Never before has a PMO harassed and any form of proportional representa- talk. Our policies prohibit whipped gagged scientists. Should we have tion, the tenor of political discourse votes. We demand transparency. confidence that the NDP and the Lib- would be more respectful. The debate That’s why I was the first Member of erals reject those reins of power? could focus on real policy differenc- Parliament to post all my expenses This must be the key issue in the es—not exaggerated or imagined fail- on line. The Green Party already lim- next election. ings of another party. its the powers of a leader through our by-laws. While other leaders can use If Canada voted using the threat of withdrawing their signa- The Green Party goal in any form of proportional ture on the nomination papers, only the next election is simple, representation, the tenor a super-majority of Green federal practical and ambitious. of political discourse would council can do that for Greens. And We seek to elect enough be more respectful. The and I work for our con- Green MPs to be the balance debate could focus on real stituents. We attempt to determine of power in a minority policy differences—not the will of the majority of our voters. Parliament. We will insist exaggerated or imagined We work to be of service. We believe on moving to proportional failings of another party. MPs work for their constituents; not representation. We will for their political party. demand a meaningful, To inject these issues into the cam- aggressive climate plan. paign, the leaders’ debates are criti- This we can do. cal. Assuming there is any integrity The key issue in the next election to the process, I will be participat- should be the declining health of Ca- ing in 2015. was in nadian democracy. We—collectively, the 1993 debates even before he had The Green Party goal in the next elec- all parties—should knock ourselves won a seat after the first Reform MP, tion is simple, practical and ambi- out to inspire Canadians to under- Deborah Gray, won in a by-election. tious. We seek to elect enough Green stand that every vote counts. We— So, too, were the Progressive Conser- collectively, all citizens—should vatives in the subsequent election MPs to be the balance of power in a demand to know how the invented debates with only two MPs—as the minority Parliament. We will insist central agency called “PMO” became Green caucus is now. The Bloc Québe- on moving to proportional represen- the sole decision-maker and enforcer. cois was included when its leader had tation. We will demand a meaning- PMO has centralized power—reduc- won a seat as an independent before ful, aggressive climate plan. This we ing Parliament to an anachronistic the party was officially established. can do. It won’t happen because the pundits believe us. It will happen be- vestige in which MPs engage in pre- It is in the interest of democracy that cause Canadians do. tend debates whose outcomes have I be at the table to raise these issues been predetermined by PMO. Restor- and press Justin Trudeau and Thomas Elizabeth May is the Leader of the ing fundamental principles of our Mulcair to commit to addressing the . system of government requires first democracy deficit. We need to ensure [email protected] naming them. Core concepts such as that the next occupant of the Prime that all MPs are equal and that the Minister’s Office is committed to re- prime minister is first among equals; jecting the powers consolidated by that the prime minister reports Stephen Harper. Our system of gov- to Parliament, not the other way ernment is based on the supremacy around; and that Parliament controls of Parliament. We have never before

January/February 2015 48

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko speaks to the Canadian Parliament in the House of Commons weeks before the October 26 parliamentary elections. The changes occurring in Ukraine are social, widespread, and deep. Deb Ransom, PMO photo Ukraine One Year After the Euromaidan: Amid an Undeclared War, Deep Social Change Yaroslav Baran

A year after Kyiv’s Euromaidan protests ousted Vladimir handsome couple walks down Putin proxy Victor Yanukovych and unleashed the most St. Andrew’s Street, arm in arm, A admiring the street paintings significant crisis in East-West relations since the Cold and architecture in this trendy and War, Ukraine is still changing. In its politics, its media, touristy corner of downtown Kyiv. They gaze at art, and at the beauty of the an- its national identity and, most of all, its ultimate rejec- cient winding roadway. They gaze at tion of “Homo Sovieticus”, the country is as noticeably each other. They duck under an arch- different from its former self as it is from any other coun- way and kiss. Judging by this scene, this could be any major city in Europe—cob- try in Europe. blestones, architecture, an artsy vibe, street lamps and romance.

Policy 49 But this city is different. It’s the capi- The changes occurring in Ukraine are social. They are tal of a country the size of France, in widespread. They are deep. And they may be the wave of the midst of an undeclared war with a social revolution that finally propels Ukraine forward, out of former superpower: Russia. Moreover, the shackles of its post-Soviet legacy and into the modern age. it’s days after an election—a high- stakes election, called by the new president to “clean the fifth colum- era are the hugely successful start-ups nists out of Parliament”—and by fifth EspresoTV and Hromadske (“com- columnists, he means the henchmen munity”) TV—both aggressively of Vladimir Putin. He means the MPs snatching eyeballs from established of the former Party of Regions, loyal (and previously distrusted) broadcast- to Putin proxy Victor Yanukovych, ers. Intriguingly, both channels were the MPs who voted for the draconian launched during the Maidan protests anti-protest laws that transformed Eu- as Internet-based live-stream broad- romaidan from a student protest to a casters, in full knowledge they would mass populist revolution. He is talk- never be granted broadcast licenses by ing about the MPs who supported the the authoritarian Yanukovych regime. regime that ordered snipers to shoot One of the two was actually started by at their own people. an Opposition MP in his own home, capitalizing on his parliamentary im- There are changes happening in this munity to protect the broadcast orga- country—far beyond the regime nization from police raids. change that occurred when Yanu- kovych fled the Euromaidan crowds Both news organizations are staffed and took refuge in Russia, far beyond by young, energetic teams—many of them former protesters. All share the new pro-democracy and pro-Eu- A granddaughter watches her grandmother cast ropean presidency of Petro Porosh- her vote in Kyiv in the parliamentary election a common goal: providing quality enko, and far beyond the fact that on October 26. Photo courtesy Yaroslav Baran coverage of events and holding the Ukraine has since lost two provinces government to account. There is tru- to a Russian invasion and faces ac- ly a “fourth estate” culture pervading tive military combat against Russian the Orange Revolution of 2004, and every aspect of the operation—from the people to the topics to the tone of regular soldiers and Russian-supplied again by Euromaidan in late 2013. reportage. They are also self-funded mercenaries in two others. And it is a rejection of those Homo Sovieticus values that continues to through donations — an important The changes occurring in Ukraine are define Ukraine’s social revolution. innovation, given that previously, all social. They are widespread. They are major broadcasters were financed by Perhaps the most striking manifes- deep. And they may be the wave of “oligarchs”, or wealthy industrialists, tation of this social change is in the social revolution that finally propels who tended to use their editorial bias energy of the youth: they are increas- Ukraine forward, out of the shackles in their own political interests. ingly involved, interested in politics, of its post-Soviet legacy and into the aware of domestic and global current modern age as a fully functioning de- olitics has also benefited from, affairs, and expect—demand—to live mocracy that respects the rule of law, and been enriched by, the on par with their peers in other Euro- and respects its people above the in- shoots of this newly reinvigo- pean countries in opportunity, civil P terests of those in power. rated civil society. Multiple political rights, and a corruption-free govern- parties’ candidate lists were popu- aken together, the zeitgeist of ment. Democratic civil society groups lated by Euromaidan activists and today’s Ukraine is antithetical are growing in number, size and so- journalists. It’s a deliberate next step to the greatest obstacle the phistication. They are overwhelm- of the Maidan movement (and some- T ingly populated by youth. And they country faced in its post-Soviet prog- thing qualitatively different from the ress: the phenomenon of the Homo operate with both professionalism Orange Revolution): don’t just de- Sovieticus. Coined by Soviet dissident and the vigour of the activist. mand change, but get in there, and ef- Alexander Zinoviev as a satirical re- One activist explains: “I was a gradu- fect that change from within the sys- sponse to the Stalin’s New Soviet Man ate student. I studied. I didn’t know tem—and keep your political peers concept, the Homo Sovieticus was the anything about politics. But the way honest and on the ball. true legacy of 80 years of communist things went last winter, it was impos- The third-place finisher in the fall hegemony: indifference, cynicism, sible not to get involved. Decency de- parliamentary elections was a popu- passive acceptance of government’s manded you get involved.” list start-up, headed by the mayor actions, and unwillingness to strive This blossoming of civil society has of Lviv, Ukraine’s most westerly me- for change. extended also into the world of me- tropolis. His party, ‘Samopomich’ These were the values rejected first by dia. Perhaps most iconic of the new (self-help) consists mainly of young

January/February 2015 people who adhere to the philosophy A remarkable surge of Ukrainian national pride is growing that you can’t wait for help—citizens among Russian-speaking Ukrainians as well, chiefly in the need to take responsibility and take east and south of the country. Even among the ethnic matters into their own hands. Like- Russian minority, there are strong signs of an emerging civic wise, Prime Minister Yatseniuk, after breaking off from his former Mother- patriotism. land party (headed by Yulia Tymosh- ing civic patriotism, with recent polls And to add a dose of irony, Ukraine enko), named his new party with a indicating a clear majority of ethnic continues to trade with Russia—de- decidedly populist moniker: “The Russians in Ukraine rejecting the spite the occupation of Crimea and Popular Front.” Kremlin’s irredentist overtures and Sevastopol, the active invasion in Do- The effects of this new activist pres- saying it is Ukraine—not Russia— netsk and Luhansk, and the incessant ence—and external vigilance—are al- that safeguards their interests. multi-billion-rouble information war. ready evident on the political scene. There is an overall dissolution of This is Ukraine one year after Eu- One of the first major acts of the regionalism occurring, with mas- romaidan. This is Ukraine 20 years Poroshenko-Yatseniuk government sive public opinion shifts over the after the Budapest Memorandum, was passage of a “Lustration” law to last year on the familiar debates of through which Ukraine gave up the provide for the removal of corrupt of- Euro-integration and NATO, or even world’s third biggest arsenal or nucle- ficials from office. Moreover, the co- regional support breakdown for the ar weapons in exchange for US, UK alition agreement emerging from this new president, who was elected with and Russian guarantees of protection fall’s parliamentary election calls for a plurality—if not a majority—in ev- against invasion. This is Ukraine on the elimination of parliamentary im- ery part of the country. While some the 200th anniversary of the birth of munity—a constitutional holdover regional differences still exist on Shevchenko, the poet-artist-prophet from Soviet times. these existential national questions, who sparked Ukraine’s first modern The country is also in the midst of a they are no longer stark. The entire massive anti-government and self- fresh wave of national awakening— country—regardless of language and identity social revolution—a Euro- of a positive patriotism that is taking ethnicity—is moving away from the maidan of the 1860s. root in unexpected quarters. One of Russian neo-imperialist sphere of in- The couple continues its stroll down these is the youth—those younger fluence, and embracing the values the winding cobblestones of St. An- than the student activist demograph- and policies that Europe and democ- drew’s Descent, arm-in-arm. They are ic—teenagers, the age group normal- racy represent. ly unconcerned with little other than far from the war. They are more likely Perhaps Prime Minister Yatseniuk their social life. One Euromaidan ac- to encounter a kitsch vendor than a said it best, when he noted that one tivist explains her own experience: student activist. The man stops and of Vladimir Putin’s huge unintended “My kid brother and all his friends scribbles something little on a wall: consequences was that he unified the used to speak Russian. It was just nor- likely a romantic etching to capture very country he invaded. mal for them. They watched Russian the moment—certainly not a piece of political graffiti. But the Kyiv they movies, they read Russian magazines, reater unity or not, signifi- are in is not just any European city. It and the language of their pop-culture cant challenges lie ahead for is the pulsing heart of a country that just seeped into their daily interac- Ukraine. Its economy is pro- G has survived a revolution, and now in tion. They are now waking up and jected to shrink by up to nine percent the midst of metamorphosis. A revo- realizing how completely abnormal it over the coming year. Its currency has lution that had already come a decade is to forsake their own language—in lost almost half its value against the earlier and fizzled, its metamorphosis which they’re all fluent—for a for- dollar in the last year. The 400,000 incomplete. The remaining question eign language. It used to be cool to internally displaced persons (Tatars is this: with the stakes so much high- speak Russian. Now it’s cool to speak from Crimea who know from history er and with patience now so much Ukrainian.” it ain’t better under the Russians, and thinner, will the political steps be fi- the many thousands who fled occu- Perhaps her characterization of her nally taken to shed Ukraine’s tragic pied Donetsk and Luhansk) are plac- own peers captures it best: “My gener- Soviet legacies, or will it still come to ing significant strain on everything ation has had enough—we’re tired of a Third Maidan? being a diaspora in our own country.” from social services to rent prices in major cities. With more than 4,000 Yaroslav Baran is a partner with the remarkable surge of Ukraini- soldiers already killed in battle on the Earnscliffe Strategy Group. He is a an national pride is growing Eastern Front, there are thousands former communications director to A among Russian-speaking of families now without husbands, Stephen Harper, and has helped lead Ukrainians as well, chiefly in the wives, fathers and mothers. Fami- four Canadian election observation east and south of the country. Even lies are torn apart by war, as a gov- missions to Ukraine, including during among the ethnic Russian minority, ernment with no means struggles to the parliamentary election of October there are strong signs of an emerg- treat their survivors with due respect. 26, 2014. [email protected] 51

A CN train near Jasper, in the Canadian Rockies. A familiar Canadian winter scene. CN photo Winter’s Impact on Canadian Railway Operations: Fact and Fantasy Paul Miller

Last winter’s rail transport crisis generated headlines he severe winter of 2013-2014 across the country about inadequate capacity, misman- created widespread disruption T in freight supply chains, pas- agement and disregard on the part of Canada’s railways. senger transportation, manufacturing, Engineer and former CN executive Paul Miller explains and the economy. Canada’s railways were certainly not immune; the service the crisis from the railways’ point of view, addressing the they were able to provide during weeks myths and realities of northern rail transportation. of exceptionally cold weather fell well short of their customers’ requirements in many cases. Critics were quick to suggest that rail-

January/February 2015 52 ways were under-investing and The same technologies that allow railways to be highly lacked the capacity to handle large efficient, low-cost service providers—steel wheels running volumes of traffic. Other myths were on steel rails, and harmonized braking systems that allow also perpetuated: that the railways cars and entire trains to be routed seamlessly between faced challenges because of bad plan- railways across —are affected by a cold- ning, a focus on financials and cost weather tipping point, at about -25 C. reduction, and because they simply didn’t care about their customers. The fact is that, it is simply not rea- sonable to judge service, or to con- nologies that make railways, railways. railways to run much shorter trains at low temperatures for safety reasons. template policy or regulatory action, The same technologies that allow Even the newest locomotives can fail based on the railways’ performance railways to be highly efficient, low- in -25 C weather, most often from during the worst eight to 10 weeks of cost service providers—steel wheels traction motors whose ground relays winter weather. For most of the year, running on steel rails, and harmo- are tripped due to snow and moisture Canada’s railways provide objectively nized braking systems that allow ingestion. solid service and capacity to a wide cars and entire trains to be routed range of customers and markets. All seamlessly between railways across Any of these factors can result in a “outdoor” industries—especially North America—are affected by a downward spiral of delays. For ex- those involved in transportation and cold-weather tipping point, at about ample, to set off a car with a defec- logistics—suffer during the winter, -25 C. At that temperature, steel be- tive wheel in winter conditions can particularly during severe weather. comes less ductile, making rails more delay a train for hours, because of the Equipment breaks down more often, susceptible to breakage, and wheels length of time needed to re-establish snow and ice slow or stop movement, more prone to tread damage—which air brake pressure. That delay can be storms and avalanches occur, and in turn applies greater forces to the quickly compounded by opposing people simply take longer to safely rail, adding to the likelihood of rail and following movements—especial- accomplish tasks. However, beyond breaks. Air brakes are subject to fail- ly on a single track—putting sidings these shared issues, railways are ad- ures as well—frozen gaskets leak air at out of service and causing shortages ditionally and uniquely affected by brake-hose couplings, causing brak- of key resources such as crews and lo- winter, due to the foundational tech- ing systems to lose pressure—leading comotives. Cold-weather train-length

Figure 1: Canadian Class 1s—Daily Million Gross Ton-Miles

2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

MILLION GROSS TON-MILES MILLION GROSS TON-MILES 1,200

1,000 Jun-11 Jun-11 Apr-11 Apr-11 Feb-11 Feb-11 Jun-09 Oct-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-10 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-10 Aug-11 Aug-11 Feb-10 Apr-14 Oct-09 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-10 Dec-13 Dec-10 Dec-09 Dec-12 Aug-09 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-10

Daily GTMs Winter

Source: Railway Association of Canada

Policy 53 restrictions can cause similarly cas- structure, equipment and human with their suppliers to produce im- cading effects: a train arriving with resources, as well as ongoing process provements. And they will continue 10,000 feet of traffic may be restrict- improvements. The fact that railway their relentless “plan–act–measure– ed to 7,000 feet on departure. That throughput recovered quickly in the analyze–improve the plan/improve unplanned 3,000 feet of left-behind spring of 2014 clearly indicates that the execution–start over” approach. traffic, multiplied by the number of sufficient network capacity was in But Canada’s railways believe other arriving trains, will cause terminal place to meet demand, but the system opportunities lie within the supply congestion, slow down processing was overpowered by winter effects. It and delay outbound trains. And all is also important to note that, even in chain itself. Many logistics improve- of this typically happens just as ship- the depths of the difficult 2013-2014 ments are underway, involving all pers lose other options—through the winter, Canada’s railways moved supply chain participants, and there closure of the St. Lawrence Seaway or more traffic than they did during the have been some successes. But there the Port of Churchill, for example— summer of 2011—another indication are additional opportunities in areas and at a time when every setback that network capacity investments such as joint planning and setting of takes longer to rectify. have been ongoing, and in-line with expectations; improved forecasting; the demands of the economy. All of shared-access systems for real-time Even in the depths of the this points to the fact that the issue information; and shared performance difficult 2013-2014 winter, with winter is not “capacity”. Rather, metrics to drive accountability and Canada’s railways moved it is “resiliency”—the ability of the action. more traffic than they rail-based supply chain to withstand did during the summer of the shocks of varying severity, dura- e also believe custom- 2011—another indication tion, and geographic distribution, ers can play a role in deal- given the technological make-up of that network capacity W ing with the challenges of railway systems. investments have been winter. They can, for example, pre- ongoing, and in-line Efforts to mitigate winter’s challeng- pare with inventory management with the demands of the es by railways and researchers have initiatives such as increased storage capacity, and scheduling of ship- economy. been commendable to date. Canada’s railways spent more than $890 mil- ments prior to the winter crunch. lion on track improvements in 2013, Such initiatives recognize the struc- and have developed innovative tech- tural impact of winter and the need nologies to offset winter’s most nega- to face up to the challenge in partner- Finally, winter’s effects on other sup- tive effects: ultrasonic detectors to ship with the railways. ply chain participants can “blow spot internal flaws in rails, and way- The notions that railways are under- back” onto rail carriers, further im- side “wheel impact load detectors” investing, that they are not planning pacting their performance. For exam- to identify treads that are pitted or properly for winter, or that they are ple, an export terminal that is affect- “shelled” and in need of replacement, ed by a winter storm may be forced to name just two examples. While only focused on cost savings, are sim- to stop inbound rail deliveries of railway research, development and ply not based on the facts. Canada’s product, backing up trains already en investments are ongoing, improve- railways stand ready to work collabor- route, causing congestion and reduc- ments in these and other technolo- atively with their partners to achieve ing the supply of empty equipment gies are expected to be incremental, end-to-end improvements across the for inland shippers. especially in the short-to-medium supply chain. term. Simply put—there are no easy Paul Miller is Adjunct Professor in the he winter of 2013-2014 was or immediate fixes for these tough, much harsher than other structural issues. Department of Civil & Environmental T winters in recent memory. Engineering at the University of Alberta, and Railroader in Residence at the The “polar vortex” was a Canadian ow, then, should northern and US news story for much of the railways—Canadian railways Canadian Rail Research Laboratory. winter, with crippling impacts felt —deal with winter’s chal- He worked for CN for 34 years, retiring as far south as Arizona and Texas. H as Vice-President, Safety, Sustainability, lenges? Obviously they must, and Winter’s impacts on the throughput will, continue to make the invest- and Network Transportation in 2011. of Canadian Class 1 railways can be ments and process improvements [email protected] seen in Figure 1. that yield ongoing, incremental This graph shows that Canada’s rail- gains. They will continue to support ways have been able to meet custom- the winter-focused research at the er demand as it has increased over Canadian Rail Research Laboratory time, through investments in infra- and other institutions, and to work

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