The Microeconomic Theory of the Rebound Effect and its Welfare Implications∗ Nathan W. Chany Kenneth Gillinghamz January 30, 2015 Forthcoming in the Journal of the Association of Environmental & Resource Economists Abstract Economists have long noted that improving energy efficiency could lead to a rebound effect, reducing or possibly even eliminating the energy savings from the efficiency improvement. This paper develops a generalized model to highlight features of the theory of the microeconomic rebound effect that are particularly relevant to empirical economists. We demonstrate when common elasticity identities used for empirical estimation are biased, and how gross complement and substitute relationships govern this bias. Furthermore, we formally derive the welfare implications of the rebound effect to provide clarity for on-going policy debates about the rebound. Keywords: energy efficiency policy; rebound effect; backfire JEL: Q38, Q48, Q53, Q54 ∗The authors would like to acknowledge helpful discussions with Matthew Kotchen, Eli Fenichel, Harry Saunders, Karen Turner, and Gernot Wagner, as well as useful comments from two anonymous reviewers. All errors are solely the responsibility of the authors. yNathan W. Chan, Colby College, 5246 Mayflower Hill, Waterville, ME 04901, phone: 207-859-5246, e-mail:
[email protected]. zCorresponding author: Kenneth Gillingham, Yale University, 195 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT 06511, phone: 203-436-5465, e-mail:
[email protected]. 1 1 Introduction Economists have long noted that improving energy efficiency could lead to a behavioral re- sponse reducing or even eliminating the energy savings from the efficiency improvement. This effect has come to be known in the economics literature as the \rebound effect,” suggestive of an initial energy savings and a rebound in energy use from the response.