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An Analysis of Traffic Demand Sensiti Transferring Traffic Demand Challenge D: A world of services for passengers An analysis of traffic demand sensitivity corresponding private rail transit transferring discounts Jun LEE Myung-Joo HAN Senior Researcher Doctor’s Course Railway Transport&Logistics Research Department of Environmental Planning Department Graduate School of Environmental Studies Korea Railroad Research Institute Seoul National University 437-757, 360-1 Woram-Dong, Uiwang-si 151-742, 599 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu Gyeonggi-Do, Korea Seoul, Korea Fax: +82-31-460-5021 Fax: +82-2-871-8847 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Yong-Taek LIM Young-Ihn LEE Professor Professor Division of Transportation and Department of Environmental Planning Logistics System Engineering Graduate School of Environmental Studies Chunnam National University Seoul National University San 96-1, Dundeok-dong, Yosu city 151-742, 599 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu Chunnam, 550-749, KOREA Seoul, Korea Fax:+82-061-659-3340 Fax: +82-2-871-8847 E-mail:[email protected] E-mail: [email protected] ABSTRACT : This study estimated demand for transfer discount of the private rail transit in order to prepare the systematic standard such as a method to apply transfer discount, and a method to deal with the loss of the private rail transit due to applying transfer discount with regard to calculating fares of the private rail transit. As a result of the analysis, it is analyzed that travel demand of most private lines is increased when discounting transfer. Some features could be found here, first, it is analyzed that total demand sensitivity is influenced depending on the number of transfer stations for each private line, and there is a difference of demand increase also according to the line's role(branch or main line's function). Key Words: Private Rail Transit, Transfer Discount 1. INTRODUCTION According to the SOC Project, there has been a continuing expansion of railways and motorways being constructed with private capital funds due to the insufficient national funds. In particular, the private rail transit is in discussion about linking up with the railways which are run by public institutions. The private rail transit has generally chosen independent fare system not to consider the transferring discounts. Planning the construction and operation of the Seoul metropolitan transport system, the private rail transit is in need to give the transferring discounts to meet the demands of the public. For this to happen, to solve problems, the standard system for transfer discount application plan, avoidance system for private transit rail loss and an demand analysis of rail transportation with transferring discounts are needed. Based on such setting, the aim of the study is to analyze the demand sensitivity of private transit rail’s transfer discount system of each rail network. Analysis on the current status of fares and transfer for the metropolitan private rail transit. Construction of a network reflecting each fare and transfer system for analyzing demand Derivation of demand sensitivity due to transfer discount 2. Analysis on the current status of metropolitan private rail transit Private rail transit projects are divided into BTO (Build-Transfer-Operate), BTL (Build-Transfer- Lease), BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer), BOO (Build-Own-Operate) etc. to carry out depending on the property of private investment project. For the fare, the private rail transits constructed by a private investment project have selected an independent fare system in general. The independent fare system has a negative utility because the basic fare is paid twice over in user's position. On the contrary, in operator's position, there is an advantage that could collect fares simply and avoid difficulties distributing fares between several operators arisen from transfer discount. Since operators of the private rail transit projects are different from ones of the existing subway lines so that arrangement is required when distributing their revenue, most private investment projects have proposed the independent fare system. The site of this study is on the main seven rail lines which the transfer discount systems applies – AREX(Korail Airport Railroad), SinBundang Line, Sosa-Wonsi Line, Sosa-Daegok Line, Yongin LRT, Uijeongbu LRT, Gwangmyeong LRT. There are different fares available for these rail lines, such as independent fare system, distance ratio fare system and section fare system, as well as analyzing the current system for fare and connection transfer situation. Table 1 Metropolitan Private rail transit Beginning Opening transfer Line section Distance Year Year station · Bundang∼Gangnam· 2010 18.5km SinBundang Line 2005 7 Gangnam∼Yongsan 2011 7.49km AREX(Korail · Incheon Airport∼Gimpo Airport· 2007 40.3km 2001 6 Airport Railroad) Gimpo Airport∼Seoul KTX station 2010 20.7km Sosa-Wonsi Line - · Sosa∼Wonsi 2014 23.4km 2 Sosa-Daegok · Gimpo Airport∼Sosa· Daegok∼Gimpo - 2015 17.8km 6 Line Airport Yongin LRT 2005 Yongin 2009 18.404km 1 Uijeongbu LRT 2007 Uijeongbu 2011 11.085km 1 Gwangmyeong - Gwangmyeong - 10.305km 2 LRT Figure 1 Private rail transit Examination of elasticity variation due to transfer discount In general, the fare for public transportations is a variable having the largest effect on travelers when selecting transportation mode and routes, which is a major factor with a negative sign that traffic volume is decreased as the fare is increased. An analysis from domestic and foreign existing literatures shows that price elasticity is generally inelastic for the public transportation demand. Most of the preceding studies used the multiple regression model to estimate elasticity, and it is analyzed that estimated value of elasticity is within -0.21~-0.79. Table 2 price elasticity for public transportation literatures elasticity The demand for public transport : The effects of ㆍ Bus short-term: -0.4, long-term: -1.0 fares, quality of service, income and car ownership (Pualley, 2005) ㆍ Subway short-term: -0.3, long-term: -0.6 ㆍ Subway short-term: -0.2, long-term: -0.4 Transport Research Lab. UK(TRL) ㆍ Rail short-term: -0.7, long-term: -1.1 Demand and Revenue Implications of an Integrated ㆍ Bus -0.21 Public Transport Policy (Matas, 2004) ㆍ Subway -0.37 ㆍ Bus short-term: -0.4, long-term: -0.9 The Demand for Local Bus Services in England ㆍ UK short-term: -0.53 (Dargay, 2002) ㆍ France short-term: -0.39 A Review of New Demand Elasticities with Spacial ㆍ Bus -0.41 Reference to Short and Long Run Effect of Price -0.79 Changes(Goodwin, 1992) ㆍ Subway Transit Price Elasticities and Cross-Elasticities ㆍ Subway, UK short-term: -0.54, long-term: - (Litman, 2004) 0.75 ㆍ Subway, France short-term: -0.3, long-term: -0.59 Causes of Bus Transit Ridership Change in Seoul ㆍ Bus -0.27 ～ -0.32 (Ha, 1997) 3. Establishment of a methodology to analyze traffic demand when discounting transfer General methods to estimate traffic demand use 4-step model estimating traffic demand, which is composed of trip generation, trip distribution, mode choice, and assignment. Table 3 Fundamental data Fundamental Contents of fundamental data data Traffic zone Metropolitan area (Seoul, Incheon, Gyeonggi-do) Network: 1142 zones and network Urban and County area are constructed by Dong and Eup·Myeon unit, respectively. Transportation mode O/D of SDI(Seoul Development Institute) O/D - Passenger: 4 modes O/D of car, taxi, bus, and subway are utilized. - Freight: It was used the freight O/D quantity provided by KTDB(Korea Transport Database). The basic and goal year of this study is set to 2007 and 2021, respectively. This is based on the time when all the 7 private rail transit lines, which are analyzed in this study, are to be opened. Since this study is aimed at analyzing demand for transfer discount of the metropolitan private rail transit, spatial scope is set to the metropolitan area including Seoul. Table 4 analysis scope Division Scope Basic year: 2007 Temporal scope Goal year: 2021 (the time when all the 7 lines are to be opened) Spatial scope Metropolitan area including Seoul Limits and basic premises of analysis It is necessary to explain limits and basic premises of the analysis first before carrying out analysis of this study. Because errors could be avoid for the analysis only if the basic limit of this analysis is recognized and the derived analysis result is interpreted under the basic established premise. The limits of the analysis in this study are as follows. First, there is a difficulty in considering transfer between modes. In the current metropolitan transportation DB, the OD and transit line is separately constructed for each 4 modes (car, taxi, bus, subway) and it is separated to be assigned for each means. Therefore, since there is a limit that could not accurately estimate transfer or connected travel between buses and subways, this study restrictively reflected transfer between buses and subways by a method discounting bus fares in the time to access subway. Second, there is a limit when applying demand of the existing report. Since the driving details is different for each private investment project and there are various reports even in a project, the time analyzing demand is not identical. Therefore, there is a difference in the reflection of the future development plan and the network, and the fare level is also different. Since there are such limits, this study established the following premises for the analysis. This study analyzes only demand sensitivity for transfer discount between subways (including LRT) and it reflects as a method discounting bus fares in the time to access subway for transfer with buses. The variation rate is applied for transfer discount based on demand of the existing report. Finally, the purpose of this study is to decide demand sensitivity due to transfer discount, which it is assumed that demand in the existing report is reasonable.
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