DOUBLE DISILLUSION THE 2016 AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION DOUBLE DISILLUSION THE 2016 AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION EDITED BY ANIKA GAUJA, PETER CHEN, JENNIFER CURTIN AND JULIET PIETSCH Published by ANU Press The Australian National University Acton ACT 2601, Australia Email:
[email protected] This title is also available online at press.anu.edu.au A catalogue record for this book is available from the National Library of Australia ISBN(s): 9781760461850 (print) 9781760461867 (eBook) This title is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). The full licence terms are available at creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ legalcode Cover design and layout by ANU Press. Cover photograph by Mike Bowers/Guardian News & Media. This edition © 2018 ANU Press This book is dedicated to the memory of Margareta Gauja (1950–2016) Contents Illustrations . xi List of Abbreviations . xvii Acknowledgements . xxi Contributors . xxiii 1 . ‘Double Disillusion’: Analysing the 2016 Australian Federal Election . .. 1 Anika Gauja, Peter Chen, Jennifer Curtin and Juliet Pietsch Part One. Campaign Themes and Context 2 . ‘I’m Not Expecting to Lose …’: The Election Overview and Campaign Narrative . 17 Marija Taflaga and John Wanna 3 . The Ideological Contest: Election 2016 . 59 Carol Johnson 4 . Turnbull versus Shorten: The Major Party Leadership Contest . 81 Paul Strangio and James Walter 5 . National Polls, Marginal Seats and Campaign Effects . 107 Murray Goot 6 . The Campaign that Wasn’t: Tracking Public Opinion over the 44th Parliament and the 2016 Election Campaign . 133 Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo Part Two. Reporting and Analysing the Results 7 .