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AT&T Analyst and Investor Day 2021

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AT&T Analyst and Investor Day 2021 AT&T Analyst and Investor Day 2021 Cautionary Language Concerning Forward-Looking Statements Information set forth in this presentation contains financial estimates and other forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results might differ materially. A discussion of factors that may affect future results is contained in AT&T’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. AT&T disclaims any obligation to update and revise statements contained in this presentation based on new information or otherwise. This presentation may contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations between the non-GAAP financial measures and the GAAP financial measures are available in the appendix of this presentation and on the company’s website at https://investors.att.com. 2 AT&T Investor & Analyst Day / March 12, 2021 / © 2021 AT&T Intellectual Property - AT&T Proprietary AT&T Analyst and Investor Day 2021 John Stankey Chief Executive Officer Our Our Deliberate Market Focus Shared 2021 Priority Capital Allocation Broadband connectivity Investing in strategic growth – 5G, Fiber 5G, Fiber, HBO Max GROW Committed to sustaining dividend Software-based at current levels entertainment Customer HBO Max Relationships Utilizing cash after dividends to reduce debt Fantastic storytelling Industry leader for Continued portfolio review – 2020 Emmy wins restructuring non-core assets Investing to drive growth in existing and expanding markets 5 AT&T Investor & Analyst Day / March 12, 2021 / © 2021 AT&T Intellectual Property - AT&T Proprietary AT&T Communications Jeff McElfresh WarnerMedia Jason Kilar Financial Overview John Stephens & Pascal Desroches Question & Answer Team 6 AT&T Investor & Analyst Day / March 12, 2021 / © 2021 AT&T Intellectual Property - AT&T Proprietary AT&T Analyst and Investor Day 2021 Jeff McElfresh CEO, AT&T Communications Broadband data usage steadily increases, jumps with pandemic Uplink and Downlink Broadband Fixed and Mobile Broadband 58 Usage Per Sub (GB) Usage Per Sub (GB) 48 280 38% 317.7 CAGR 39 38 28 Downlink Fixed 78 35% 18 73.9 5.6 Mobile CAGR Uplink 1.3 8 8 2015 2020 2015 2020 Jan-17 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-19 Jan-18 Sep-17 Jan-20 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-19 Sep-18 May-17 May-15 May-16 May-19 May-18 May-20 COVID-19 COVID-19 Source: AT&T Labs Outlook 9 AT&T Investor & Analyst Day / March 12, 2021 / © 2021 AT&T Intellectual Property - AT&T Proprietary Customer connectivity usage continues to accelerate Expected Monthly Usage (Terabytes) 10:1 ~5:1 4.6 Down / Uplink Today Future Connected devices 13 32 devices Video streaming 3 5 hours Mobile 11 50 GB Percentiles 1.5 90th 0.9 Evolving use cases th 50 0.3 10th 0.04 0.20 4K Content Conferencing AR / VR Gaming 2020 2025 Source: AT&T Labs Outlook 10 AT&T Investor & Analyst Day / March 12, 2021 / © 2021 AT&T Intellectual Property - AT&T Proprietary AT&T optimally positioned to meet customers’ connectivity needs Enterprise / Public Sector Home Distributed and remote workers HD streaming / simultaneous viewing ~20K enterprises (>500 emp.)2 ~128M households Small Business Young Adult / Student Simple / transactional Wireless first, gamers ~31.7M small businesses2 28M between ages 19 – 253 Gamer Travel Low latency / high bandwidth Highly mobile, distributed 141M U.S. console gamers (>1 hour week)1 45K average daily flights4 Fixed Wireless Sources: 1Number of Gamers worldwide link 2U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy link 3KFF Population by age link 4Federal Aviation Administration link 11 AT&T Investor & Analyst Day / March 12, 2021 / © 2021 AT&T Intellectual Property - AT&T Proprietary Fiber is foundational Macro Cell Sites Small Cell Sites Wholesale Integrated planning +3M customer locations1 Symmetrical speeds Multi-Gig capable Neighborhood Enterprise Small Business 1. In 2021, we are planning to increase our current fiber footprint by expanding to 3M customer locations in more than 90 metro areas 12 AT&T Investor & Analyst Day / March 12, 2021 / © 2021 AT&T Intellectual Property - AT&T Proprietary Complemented by strong spectrum position AT&T Spectrum Holdings (MHz) 700 America’s Best Network1 Low 22 7 20 23 72 700DE FN Nation’s Largest Network2 800/850 Mid 38 15 20 20 93 PCS 173Mhz AWS1 Nationwide 5G Mid-Band AWS3 C-band 80 WCS FirstNet C-band High mmWaveHigh 1040 1. GWS awarded AT&T Best Network OneScore 2020. GWS conducts drive tests for AT&T and uses the data in its OneScore analysis; 2. Based on overall coverage in U.S. licensed/roaming areas 13 AT&T Investor & Analyst Day / March 12, 2021 / © 2021 AT&T Intellectual Property - AT&T Proprietary Wireless: Growing subscribers and EBITDA 40.0% 1.20% 33.5% 30.0% 1.00% 1 FAST. RELIABLE. SECURE. AT&T share 20.0%Churn 0.80% 0.76% UNLIMITED 10.0% YOUR WAYSM 0.60% 0.0% Share of 0.40% -10.0%Net Adds COVID-19 Impact 0.20% -20.0% FirstNet in AT&T Retail New Unlimited Unlimited -30.0% to verified responders Plans launched Your Way 0.00% 1Q18 4Q20 1st 5G connection Nationwide 5G Launched HBO Max “Best Deals for Everyone” 1. Represents AT&T postpaid voice share; Source: Externally reported financial statements 14 AT&T Investor & Analyst Day / March 12, 2021 / © 2021 AT&T Intellectual Property - AT&T Proprietary Broadband: Growing fiber subscribers and revenue 20 ARPU 19 $58 18 17 16 15 14 13 14.5M14M+ 12 1 11 Penetration Symmetrical 10 34% 9 Speeds 8 7 8.2M8M+ Improved 6 5 marginal 4 economics 3 2 Differentiated 1 Customer Locations 0 Offer DIRECTV Build 1G Fiber requirements met Pricing 1Q18 4Q20 Launched HBO Max 1. Penetration is based on a percentage of eligible living units in fiber footprint 15 AT&T Investor & Analyst Day / March 12, 2021 / © 2021 AT&T Intellectual Property - AT&T Proprietary Business: Simplified portfolio maintains solid margins Focus market approach Fiber Wireless Business fiber foundation Edge Secure Voice & Connectivity Collaboration 16 AT&T Investor & Analyst Day / March 12, 2021 / © 2021 AT&T Intellectual Property - AT&T Proprietary Customer experience focus – consistency and simplicity Net Promoter® Score Lift1 Net Promoter Score ~15 points ~10 points ~20 points ~10 points Fiber Postpaid Wireless Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited + HBO Max + HBO Max 2018 2020 OR Fiber + Fiber 1. Net Promoter® is a registered trademark of Bain & Company, Inc., Satmetrix Systems, Inc., and Fred Reichheld; Data reflects affinity customers with Auto Bill Pay 17 AT&T Investor & Analyst Day / March 12, 2021 / © 2021 AT&T Intellectual Property - AT&T Proprietary AT&T expects continued market momentum Network Wireless Fiber Business Deploy and optimize Grow subscribers Grow subscribers Simplify portfolio spectrum portfolio Grow service revenue Grow revenue Maintain solid margins Plan to expand fiber to 3M customer locations Grow EBITDA 18 AT&T Investor & Analyst Day / March 12, 2021 / © 2021 AT&T Intellectual Property - AT&T Proprietary AT&T Analyst and Investor Day 2021 John Stephens Chief Financial Officer Pascal Desroches Senior Executive Vice President, Incoming CFO 2021 Consolidated financial guidance (unchanged from 4Q20 Earnings call) Key Assumptions Wireless service revenue growth of ~2% Revenue Growth 1% range Gradual theatrical improvement in WarnerMedia Modest Mobility EBITDA growth EPS – Adjusted1 Stable with 2020 Increased HBO Max investment Cost transformation reinvested in growth Gross Capital Investment2 $21B range Focus on fiber and wireless densification Expect ~$2B in vendor financing payments and Capital Expenditures $18B range ~$1B in FirstNet reimbursements Free Cash Flow3 $26B range Total dividend payout ratio in the high 50’s% range Long-Term Utilizing cash after dividends to reduce net debt Debt Management Continued portfolio review for asset monetization 1. The company expects adjustments to 2021 reported diluted EPS to include merger-related amortization of about $4.3 billion and other adjustments, a non-cash mark-to-market benefit plan gain/loss, merger integration and other adjustments. Based on historical results, we expect the mark-to-market adjustment which is driven by interest rates and investment returns that are not reasonably estimable at this time, to be a significant item. Our 2021 EPS estimates depend on future levels of revenues and expenses which are not reasonably estimable at this time. Accordingly, we cannot provide a reconciliation between our non-GAAP metrics and the reported GAAP metrics without unreasonable effort. 2. Gross capital investment includes capital expenditures and cash payments for vendor financing and excludes expected FirstNet reimbursements 3. Free cash flow total dividend payout ratio is total dividends paid divided by free cash flow. Free cash flow is cash from operating activities minus capital expenditures. Due to high variability and difficulty in predicting items that impact cash from operating activities and capital expenditures, the company is not able to provide a reconciliation between projected free cash flow and the most comparable GAAP metric without unreasonable effort. 45 AT&T Investor & Analyst Day / March 12, 2021 / © 2021 AT&T Intellectual Property - AT&T Proprietary AT&T financials proforma (video deconsolidation) $ in billions Revenue Adjusted EBITDA Video Impact1 Video Impact1 EBITDA Margin Deconsolidation Impact (-7%) $181.2 Expect to close in 2H 21 $171.8 $59.3 $54.5 Revenue trajectory improves $56.3 $153.8 ~100 bps $147.3 $52.1 EBITDA margin improvement ~300bps ~300 bps higher ex Video 32.7% 31.8% 2019 2020 2019 2020 1. Excludes commercial agreements between New DIRECTV and AT&T 46 AT&T Investor & Analyst Day / March 12, 2021 / © 2021 AT&T Intellectual Property - AT&T Proprietary AT&T near-term business expectations Mobility WarnerMedia Growing postpaid base, lower churn Strong HBO Max subscriber and Broadband revenue growth Latin America ARPU stability 9% Increased investment in HBO Max 1% Cost savings from transformation WarnerMedia Improved advertising demand 17% 2H recovery in theatrical 2020 Broadband Transformation Pro Forma Strong fiber subscriber growth Adj.
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