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State of Florida Daily Situation Report

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State of Florida Daily Situation Report Florida Division of Emergency Management State Watch Office Morning Situation Report Sunday, August 18, 2019 State Emergency Operations Center Activation Level Level 3 Monitoring SERT On-Call Personnel Position Personnel Phone Email Operations Chief Axel Runtschke (850) 841-9619 [email protected] Watch Officer Axel Runtschke (850) 841-9619 [email protected] Duty Officer Justin Lazzara (850) 519-6961 [email protected] Operations Officer- Day Woody Harvey (850) 815-4001 [email protected] Operations Officer- Swing Phillip Thomas (850) 815-4001 [email protected] Operations Officer- Night Amanda Holcomb (850) 815-4001 [email protected] Meteorologist Michael Spagnolo (850) 508-0245 [email protected] Plans Chief Ryan Lock (850) 841-9484 [email protected] Logistics Chief Eugene Buerkle (850) 363-5427 [email protected] Human Services Director Pam Hughes (850) 528-5638 [email protected] Emergency Services Director Rob Dietrich (850) 727-3414 [email protected] Infrastructure Branch Director Danny Kilcollins (850) 519-8581 [email protected] ESF 8 On-Call Kenneth DeCastro (866) 786-4673 [email protected] Public Information Officer Jason Mahon (850) 294-2169 [email protected] DEM Finance and Admin Jessica Blake (850) 284-8070 [email protected] Regional Coordination Team Team County Location Status / Activities RC Manager: Jim Roberts In Region / State Off & Monitoring Region 1: Jim Roberts Region 2: Brian Bradshaw In Region / State Off & Monitoring Region 3: Gina Lambert In Region / State Off & Monitoring Region 4: Paul Siddall In Region / State Off & Monitoring Region 5: Claudia Baker In Region / State Off & Monitoring Region 6: Jodie Fiske In Region / State Off & Monitoring Region 7: Willie Bouie In Region / State Off & Monitoring RC Status Normal Operations Delayed Response Out of Service / Unavailable Meteorology Summary Threat R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 Lightning M M M L M L L Flooding (River) M H H H (M) Damaging Wind Hail Tornado Excessive Heat L L L L Fire L Fog Rip Currents H H L L L L L Space Weather Very Low Lake Okeechobee Status: Elevation is at 12.90 ft Keetch-Byram Drought Index: 104 (+2) on a scale from 0 (very moist) to 800 (very dry) Today’s Weather Map Rainfall Totals Chance of Next 24 Hours Rain Today Meteorology Summary Statewide Overview, Next 24 Hours: An area of low pressure was located along the remnants of an old cold front in the eastern Panhandle. Near and east of this low pressure areas, bands of heavy rainfall have developed. These bands of rain will continue to impact the eastern Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast at times today. Locally heavy rainfall and a continued flood threat is forecast today. However, the flood Flood Watches threat has generally shifted west from where it was centered the Flood Warnings last few days. The greatest risk of heavy rainfall today will be in Bay, Gulf, and Franklin County. Flood Watches are in effect for the eastern Big Bend and northern Nature Coast. Showers and High Rip Current Risk storms in these areas may continue into tonight, though slightly less coverage is expected in the overnight hours. A few thunderstorms could be strong to severe today, with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and waterspouts. Elsewhere across the state, showers and thunderstorms will Flash Flood be isolated along the I-95 corridor and into South Florida and the Risk Today Florida Keys. Most of these storms will fade after sunset. Where the heavy rainfall is expected today, highs will only reach the upper 70s to middle 80s. Elsewhere in the state, highs will climb to the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat index values in these areas will be between 100 and 105 degrees. Lows tonight will be in the middle to upper 70s statewide with the lower 80s in the Keys. Tropical Weather Tropics: An area of low pressure along a front in eastern North Carolina will be moving offshore over warm waters in the Atlantic. Development of this system is possible as it moves away from the United States and over open waters. This system has a 30% (low) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and 30% (low) chance during the next 5 days. Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected during the next 5 days. For more information regarding the tropics, please visit www.hurricanes.gov. Coastal Hazards & Hydrology Rip Currents: Breezy onshore winds (15-20 mph) in the Panhandle will result in a high risk of rip currents from Walton to Franklin County with a moderate risk from Escambia to Okaloosa County. Wave heights are 2-4’. All other beaches have a low risk today. Remember, always swim within sight of a lifeguard. Never swim alone. Rip currents can still occur on low risk days! Lake Okeechobee average elevation is 12.90 feet, which is 1.12 feet below normal for this time of year. Due to recent and forecast rainfall, the lake level will continue to rise. Rip Current Hydrology & Flooding: River Flood Warnings are in effect for the Alafia River at Lithia; Cypress Creek at Worthington Gardens; Horse Creek near Arcadia; Outlook Little Manatee River at Wimauma; Myakka River at Myakka River State Park; Peace River at Bartow, Arcadia, and Zolfo Springs; Santa Fe River at O’Leno State Park; Steinhatchee River at Steinhatchee; and the Withlacoochee River at Dunnellon. Minor flooding is forecast at all locations except the Peace River at Arcadia where moderate flooding is ongoing. The Ocklawaha River at Rodman Dam is also in minor flood stage. Several other rivers throughout the Peninsula are in or forecast to reach action stage. To contrast, a handful of rivers in the Panhandle are in low water stage. For more information on specific rivers, please Current & Forecast visit the Southeast River Forecast Center here. River Conditions Flood Watches remain in effect for Taylor, Dixie, Lafayette, Levy, and Citrus Counties until Monday Morning. These flood watches could be extended, and additional counties in the western Big Bend and eastern Panhandle could be added later today. Another 1-4” of rain is expected across these areas today with localized totals of 4-8” possible. This is on top of the widespread 6-12” of rain that have fallen over the last 3 days. Some localized areas have seen 12-20” in the last 3 days. Rainfall totals in the eastern Panhandle and western Big Bend could be as high as 4-6”, but these areas have been dry resulting in a lower flood threat. Any rainfall totals over 6” will begin to increase the flood threat (Bay, Gulf, and Franklin County with the highest risk). Drought & Fire Weather Fire Weather: Much of the Peninsula has seen abundant rainfall, and the wildfire threat in those areas remains minimal. However, ongoing moderate to severe drought in parts of the Panhandle continues a low wildfire threat. Winds will be light (<15 mph) and relative humidity above critical levels. Lightning may ignite new fires. Wind speed and direction may abruptly change near thunderstorms. Downed trees from Hurricane Michael continue to pose a hazardous fuel source. There are currently 2 active wildfires across the state burning a total of 3.5 acres. All of these fires are 100% contained. A County Burn Ban is in effect for Duval, Orange, Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Sarasota (prohibited year-round). The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 104 (+2) on a scale from 0 (very moist) to 800 (very dry). There are currently 0 Florida counties with an average KBDI at or above 500. Drought Monitor Active Wildfires (Florida Forest Service) Space Weather Current Sunspots Solar Flare Active Watches Past 24 Risk & Warnings hours M-class: Geomagnetic A6 Solar 1% Storm: No Flare X-class: Radiation Storm: No Radio 1% No Blackouts 48 Hour Geomagnetic Forecast 8/18 8/19 Max Kp= 2 (G0) Max Kp= 2 (G0) Chance of Chance of minor activity = 1% minor activity = 1% severe activity = 1% severe activity = 1% Space Weather: The sun remains spotless, and the threat of a significant solar flare is near zero. Solar winds may increase by mid-week due to the noted coronal hole. However, geomagnetic storming is currently not expected. The space weather threat to Florida remains very low. Coronal holes on the Earth- facing side of the sun SWO Communications Systems & Contact Information Equipment Contact Status Comments Phone: 800-320-0519 or 850-815-4001 Operational Fax: 850-815-4979 Operational Email: [email protected] Operational SWO Tracker: https://apps.floridadisaster.org/SWO/ Operational SLERS: DEM Statewide Operational FNARS: WGY974 Operational NAWAS: State Watch Office Operational FL NAWAS: State Watch Office Operational EMnet Message: FL.000- State Watch Office Operational EMnet Voice: FL SWP- State Watch Office Operational IPAWS: LP.1 Stations via Emnet Operational FIN: SOFEOC Operational Satellite Phones: 888-890-5178 or 480-263-8838 Operational Website: http://www.floridadisaster.org Operational WebEOC: https://eoc.floridadisaster.org/eoc7/ Operational Users wishing to subscribe (approval pending) to this distribution list, register at: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/FLDEM/subscriber/new?topic_id=Morning_SITREP.
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