Risky Business: policy uncertainty, institutional insularity, and learning in Canadian provincial energy policy making 2006-2016. Heather Millar
[email protected] Department of Political Science University of Toronto 100 St. George Street Toronto, ON, M5S 3G3 Prepared for the International Workshop on Public Policy University of Pittsburgh June 26th – 28th, 2018 Draft Working Paper: comments are welcome, please do not cite without author's permission. Abstract Policy learning scholarship has moved beyond describing typologies of learning to examine the dynamics of policy learning at micro, meso, and macro levels. Scholars have begun to theorize individual processes of cognition (Moyson 2016), linkages between individual and collective process of learning (Heikkila and Gerlak 2013), and organizational capacities necessary for policy change (Borrás 2011). Despite these advances, recent reviews have identified the need to specify necessary conditions of learning, particularly as to the role of knowledge claims and institutional structures in learning processes. This paper builds on Dunlop and Radaelli’s (2013) causal typology of modes of learning to operationalize measures for problem tractability and actor certification. The paper contends that problem tractability can be analyzed by measuring policy complexity and ambiguity, generating a typology of risk narratives that align with different modes of learning. To measure actor certification, the paper uses institutional insularity, suggesting that closed networks are more likely to support hierarchical and epistemic learning, while open structures facilitate more plural modes of bargaining and reflexive learning. Drawing on cases of hydraulic fracturing regulation in three Canadian provinces (2006-2016), the paper demonstrates that changes to institutional structures and/or risk narratives transforms dominant learning modes in each jurisdiction, resulting in changes to regulatory structures.