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Electoral Review of Suffolk County Council

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Electoral Review of Suffolk County Council Electoral Review of Suffolk County Council Suffolk County Council Conservative Group Submission on Division Arrangements to the Local Government Boundary Commission for England December 2019 Contents 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................... 1 1.1 The current situation ........................................................................................ 1 1.2 Proposed division arrangements ........................................................................ 2 2. Babergh ................................................................................................................. 4 2.1 Map of proposed Babergh divisions ................................................................... 5 2.2 Proposed divisions and statutory criteria ............................................................ 6 3. East Suffolk........................................................................................................... 10 3.1 Map of proposed East Suffolk divisions ............................................................. 11 3.2 Detailed map of Lowestoft divisions .................................................................. 12 3.3 Proposed divisions and statutory criteria ........................................................... 13 3.3.1 Proposed Felixstowe divisions ......................................................................... 22 4. Ipswich ................................................................................................................. 25 4.1 Map of proposed Ipswich divisions ................................................................... 26 4.2 Proposed divisions and statutory criteria ........................................................... 27 5. Mid Suffolk ............................................................................................................ 34 5.1 Map of proposed Mid Suffolk divisions .............................................................. 35 5.2 Detailed map of Stowmarket divisions ............................................................... 36 5.3 Proposed divisions and statutory criteria ........................................................... 37 6. West Suffolk ......................................................................................................... 41 6.1 Map of proposed West Suffolk divisions ............................................................ 42 6.2 Detailed map of Bury St Edmunds divisions ....................................................... 43 6.3 Detailed map of Haverhill divisions ................................................................... 44 6.4 Proposed divisions and statutory criteria ........................................................... 45 7. Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 53 Appendix 1: Breakdown for proposed Babergh divisions .................................................. 54 Appendix 2: Breakdown for proposed East Suffolk divisions ............................................. 59 Appendix 3: Breakdown for proposed Ipswich divisions ................................................... 71 Appendix 4: Breakdown for proposed Mid Suffolk divisions .............................................. 75 Appendix 5: Breakdown for proposed West Suffolk divisions ............................................ 82 1. Introduction This submission sets out the Suffolk County Council Conservative Group’s proposals for division arrangements for Suffolk County Council. 1.1 The current situation Suffolk County Council currently has a scheme of 63 divisions and 75 Members - 51 single Member divisions and 12 divisions represented by two Members. In October 2018, Suffolk County Council was informed by the Local Government Boundary Commission for England that an electoral review would be undertaken. The review was triggered by the finding that Suffolk County Council meets the Commission’s criteria for electoral inequality, namely: • More than 30% of a council’s wards/divisions having an electoral imbalance of more than 10% from the average ratio for that authority; and/or • One or more wards/divisions with an electoral imbalance of more than 30%; and • The imbalance is unlikely to be corrected by foreseeable changes to the electorate within a reasonable period. The table below summarises how Suffolk County Council meets the intervention criteria: Total number of divisions 63 Number/% divisions >10% 17 27% Number/% divisions >20% 5 8% Number/% divisions >30% 1 2% The review aims to deliver electoral equality for voters in local elections. During the first stage of the review, the Commission reached a decision on the size of the Council (the number of Councillors to be returned to the Council). The joint Suffolk County Council Conservative Group and Labour Group’s submission to the first stage of the review proposed 70 Councillors as the appropriate council size and provided evidence to support this. On 24 September 2019, the Commission wrote to the CEO of Suffolk County Council saying it is minded to recommend that 70 County Councillors should be elected to Suffolk County Council in future. The letter also stated, that in light of the Council’s formal request that the Commission carry out a single Member division review, the Commission will aim to draw up a pattern of electoral divisions where each division is represented by one County Councillor. The letter concluded by inviting proposals from the Council, interested parties and members of the public on a pattern of electoral divisions to accommodate those Councillors. A working group of seven Suffolk County Council Conservative Group Members was set up to develop the proposals for division arrangements. The working group met several times and members of the working group also consulted with other Suffolk County Council 1 Conservative Group Members and local Conservative associations to obtain their input into the proposals. 1.2 Proposed division arrangements It should be noted that all of the district council areas in Suffolk were recently reviewed by the LGBCE: • The electoral review of Mid Suffolk concluded in August 2018 with the final recommendations published on 7 August 2018. • The electoral review of Babergh concluded in October 2018 with the final recommendations published on 7 August 2018. • The electoral review of East Suffolk concluded in December 2018 with the final recommendations published on 23 October 2018. • The electoral review of West Suffolk concluded in December 2018 with the final recommendations published on 23 October 2018. The new warding arrangements for all four councils came into force at the local elections in May 2019. The final recommendations for each have been taken into account when formulating our division proposals for Suffolk County Council. Our proposed division arrangements for Suffolk County Council are based on the Boundary Commission’s recommendation that the number of Councillors be reduced from the present 75 to 70. The proposals are also based on all divisions being represented by one Councillor. The total predicted electorate for Suffolk in 2025 is 592,066. The table below shows the number of Councillors to be returned to the Council from each district/borough area based on the total predicted electorate and 70 Councillors: District/Borough 2025 Proportion Number of Rounding Current Outcome Predicted based on Cllrs based number Electorate predicted on of Cllrs for electorate proportions Suffolk Babergh 75,152 12.69 8.89 9 10 Lose 1 East Suffolk 199,634 33.72 23.60 24 26 Lose 2 Ipswich 102,658 17.34 12.14 12 13 Lose 1 Mid Suffolk 85,693 14.47 10.13 10 10 Stay as is West Suffolk 128,929 21.78 15.24 15 16 Lose 1 Total 592,066 100 70 70 75 Based on a predicted electorate of 592,066 by 2025, a Council size of 70 equates to an average of 8,458 electors for each Councillor. 2 The Commission’s main criteria when devising division arrangements are: • Electoral equality • Community identity • Effective local government. When formulating the proposed division arrangements, our submission respects these criteria: Electoral equality • Although our proposals respect all three of the Commission’s criteria, the first criterion in particular is adhered to, namely electoral equality. • The proposed scheme means that 68 (97%) of the 70 divisions vary less than 10% from the average. Indeed, 48 divisions (69%) vary less than 5%. Only two divisions (3%) don’t meet the criterion of less than 10% variance in electoral equality. Community identity • The proposed division arrangements aim to reflect the interests and identities of local communities, whilst also ensuring that they deliver electoral equality. • In a few cases, this meant that several communities needed to be brought together in a single division, even if they do not share the same community identity. • Where applicable, we have used parishes as the building blocks of divisions. We have respected the existing parishes, parish wards and grouped parish councils. • Major roads, railway lines and other established boundaries are respected in the proposals. Under our proposals, all parishes are easily accessible using major and/or minor roads. Effective local government • None of our proposed electoral divisions cross the existing district/borough council boundaries. • We have aimed to ensure that none of the proposed divisions is too large or too small to be represented effectively. • The scheme
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