Baseline Assessment: Bago River Watershed and its Natural Parks

Philippines Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience (B+WISER)

This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Chemonics International Inc. The Biodiversity and 26Watersheds June 201 5Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience Program is funded by the USAID, Contract No. AID-492-C-13-00002 and implemented by Chemonics International in association with:

 Fauna and Flora International (FFI)  Haribon Foundation  World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF)

The author’s views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Chemonics International Inc. The Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience Program is funded by the USAID, Contract No. AID-492-C-13-00002 and implemented by Chemonics International in association with:

 Fauna and Flora International (FFI)  Haribon Foundation  World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF)

The author’s views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

Vulnerability Assessment of Bago River Watershed and its Natural Parks

Philippines Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience (B+WISER) Program

Implemented with:

Department of Environment and Natural Resources Other National Government Agencies Local Government Units and Agencies

Supported by:

United States Agency for International Development Contract No.: AID-492-C-13-00002

Managed by:

Chemonics International Inc. in partnership with Fauna & Flora International (FFI) Haribon Foundation World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF)

26 June 2015

CONTENTS

List of Figures...... iii

List of Tables ...... iv

List of Plates ...... iv

Acronyms ...... v

Rationale ...... vii

The Bago Watershed and its Natural Parks ...... 1

The Climate Profile ...... 4 Baseline climate ...... 4 Climate scenario for Northern Negros in 2020 and 2050 ...... 6

Assessment Framework and Methodology ...... 8 Data Collection...... 8 Vulnerability Assessment ...... 8 Hazards Assessment ...... 9 Flood Hazard Assessment ...... 9 Drought Hazard Assessment ...... 11 Landslide Hazard Assessment ...... 13 Land Capability Classification ...... 14 Generation of Soil Erosion Potential ...... 15 Rainfall Factor (R) ...... 15 Soil Erodibility Factor (K) ...... 16 Slope Length and Slope Gradient Factor (LS) ...... 17 Creation of Soil Loss Tolerance ...... 17 Determination of Soil Erosion Index ...... 18 Generation of Land Capability Classification ...... 18 Validation ...... 19

Findings ...... 21 Hazards Assessment ...... 21 Flood Hazard Assessment ...... 21 Drought Hazard Assessment ...... 32 Rain-Induced Landslide Hazard Assessment ...... 44 Land Capability Classification ...... 56 Protection Areas ...... 56 Key Biodiversity Areas ...... 56 Stream Buffer Areas ...... 58

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | i Production Areas ...... 59 Multiple Use Zone ...... 59 Limited Production Zone ...... 59 Unlimited Production Zone ...... 59

Conclusion ...... 63

Recommendation ...... 64

References ...... 65

ii | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1. The Bago Watershed and its surrounding natural parks ...... 2 Figure 2. Tracks of tropical cyclones that crossed the province of Negros Occidental (1948 – 2009) ...... 5 Figure 3. Observed and projected monthly rainfall in Northern Negros ...... 6 Figure 4. Framework of the vulnerability assessment ...... 9 Figure 5. Framework for erosion-based land capability classification system ...... 15 Figure 6. Site visited during the validation in the Bago Watershed and its natural parks ...... 19 Figure 7. Flood vulnerability based on observed scenario under the CNCM3 model in the Bago Watershed, Northern Negros ...... 27 Figure 8. Flood vulnerability (2020s period) based on CNCM3 model (A1B scenario) in the Bago Watershed, Northern Negros ...... 28 Figure 9. Flood vulnerability (2050s period) based on CNCM3 model (A1B scenario) in the Bago Watershed, Northern Negros ...... 29 Figure 10. Flood Vulnerability (2020s period) based on CNCM3 model (A1B scenario) in the Bago Watershed, Northern Negros ...... 30 Figure 11. Flood Vulnerability (2050s period) based on CNCM3 model (A1B scenario) in the Bago Watershed, Northern Negros ...... 31 Figure 12. Standardized precipitation index based on CNCM3 A1B scenario of the Negros Occidental Province ...... 34 Figure 13. Standardized precipitation index based on CNCM3 A2 scenario of the Negros Occidental Province ...... 34 Figure 14. Drought Vulnerability based on observed scenario under the CNCM3 model (A1B scenario) in the Bago Watershed and its natural parks ...... 39 Figure 15. Drought Vulnerability (2020s period) based on CNCM3 model (A1B scenario) in the Bago Watershed and its natural parks ...... 40 Figure 16. Drought Vulnerability (2050s period) based on CNCM3 model (A1B scenario) in the Bago Watershed and its natural parks ...... 41 Figure 17. Drought Vulnerability (2020s period) based on CNCM3 model (A2 scenario) in the Bago Watershed and its natural parks ...... 42 Figure 18. Drought Vulnerability (2050s period) based on CNCM3 model (A2 scenario) in the Bago Watershed and its natural parks ...... 43 Figure 19. Landslide vulnerability based on observed scenario under the CNCM3 model in the Bago Watershed, Northern Negros ...... 51 Figure 20. Landslide vulnerability (2020s period) based on CNCM3 model (A1B scenario) in the Bago Watershed, Northern Negros ...... 52 Figure 21. Landslide vulnerability (2050s period) based on CNCM3 model (A1B scenario) in the Bago Watershed, Northern Negros ...... 53 Figure 22. Landslide vulnerability (2020s period) based on CNCM3 model (A2 scenario) in the Bago Watershed, Northern Negros ...... 54 Figure 23. Landslide vulnerability (2050s period) based on CNCM3 model (A2 scenario) in the Bago Watershed, Northern Negros ...... 55 Figure 24. Prescribed land capability classification in the Bago Watershed and its natural parks ...... 61

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | iii LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Number of barangays by municipality/city and their area coverage within the Bago Watershed and its Natural Parks ...... 3 Table 2. Monthly mean climatic variables based on La Granja, La Carlota Agromet Station (1975-2003) ...... 4 Table 3. Projected rainfall based on CNCM3 model with two scenarios ...... 7 Table 4. Estimated changes in average monthly rainfall by 2020 and 2050 ...... 7 Table 5. Available datasets for the assessment ...... 8 Table 6. Summary of the classified ranges for the different layers/factors considered in the flood susceptibility ...... 10 Table 7. Summary of the classified ranges for the different layers/factors considered in the drought susceptibility ...... 12 Table 8. Summary of the classified ranges for the different layers/factors considered in the landslide susceptibility modeling ...... 13 Table 9. K-values for the Bago Watershed ...... 16 Table 10. Prescribed soil loss tolerance in the watershed ...... 17 Table 11. Land capability classification criteria ...... 18 Table 12. Vulnerability to flooding and its area coverage of the Bago Watershed and its influence natural parks ...... 23 Table 13. Vulnerability to flooding by barangay of the Bago Watershed, Northern Negros ..... 24 Table 14. Drought vulnerability and its area coverage of the Bago Watershed and its natural parks ...... 35 Table 15. Drought vulnerability ratings by barangays in Bago Watershed, Northern Negros ...... 35 Table 16. Landslide vulnerability and area coverage of the Bago Watershed and its natural ...... 47 Table 17. Landslide Vulnerability by barangay in Bago Watershed, Northern Negros ...... 47 Table 18. The prescribed land capability classification and its hazard limitations and management prescriptions ...... 60 Table 19. Area distribution of the land capability classification by land cover ...... 62

LIST OF PLATES

Plate 1. Participants during the vulnerability assessment validation workshop ...... 20 Plate 2. A highly susceptible area to flooding in Pulupandan ...... 22 Plate 3. Areas vulnerable to drought in the Bago Watershed ...... 33 Plate 4. Identified landslide vulnerable areas in Mt. Kanlaon Natural Park ...... 44 Plate 5. Identified landslide vulnerable areas in Northern Negros Natural Park ...... 45 Plate 6. Upland agriculture and kaingin farming are often practiced in barangay Pula, Murcia ...... 46 Plate 7. Remaining natural forests or closed forest as key biodiversity areas ...... 57 Plate 8. Planted bamboo along the Bago River in Northern Negros ...... 58

iv | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS

ACRONYMS

B B+WISER Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience BRW Bago River Watershed BSWM Bureau of Soils and Water Management

C CNCM3/ CNRM-CM3 Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques

D DEM Digital Elevation Model DENR Department of Environment and Natural Resources

E EDC Energy Development Corporation

F FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FMB Forest Management Bureau FS Flood Susceptibility

G GIS Geographic Information System

L LCC Land Capability Class LCCS Land Capability Classification System LGU Local Government Unit

M MDG Millennium Development Goals

N NAMRIA National Mapping and Resource Information Authority NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetative index NOAH Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards NSO National Statics Office

P PAGASA Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration PHIVOLCS Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | v S SAFDZ Strategic Agriculture and Fisheries Development Zone SEI Soil Erosion Index SEP Soil Erosion Potential SPI Standardized Precipitation Index

U USAID United States Agency for International Development USLE Universal Soil Loss Equation

V VA Vulnerability Assessment

vi | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS

RATIONALE

Ecosystem vulnerability assessment is an approach used in determining the degree to which a system is susceptible to the adverse effects of climate related hazards such as soil erosion, flooding, drought, landslides, etc. It is regarded as a planning tool as it serves as basis in making decisions that will help minimize the vulnerability of the watersheds to environmental and climate related disasters. Natural events such as typhoons and heavy rains can be hazardous and can pose a major threat both to the ecosystems and human beings.

Watersheds play significant role in pursuing sustainable development (Lasco et al. 2006). More than 70% of the country’s total land area lies within watersheds. Around 20 to 24 million people — about one fourth of the country’s total population — inhabit the watersheds and are dependent on them for survival (Cruz et al., 2005). Thus, in order to minimize further destruction and degradation of watersheds due to climate related extreme events, assessing their vulnerabilities to soil erosion, landslides, drought and flooding is of utmost importance. The results of the assessment will provide basis in crafting mitigation and adaptation measures that have to be integrated in the management plans of Bago Watershed, Northern Negros Natural Park and Mt. Kanlaon Natural Park and development plans of the LGUs covered by the watershed.

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | vii

THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS

The Bago Watershed is located in the northwestern portion of the Negros Island within the province of Negros Occidental. It lies between geographical coordinates 10˚ 20’ 0” to 10˚ 50’ 0” north latitude and 122˚ 50’ 0” to 123˚ 30’ 0” east longitude (Figure 1). Bago Watershed and its natural parks falls within the jurisdiction of 15 political or administrative units comprising of nine cities, namely: Bago, Cadiz, Canlaon, Talisay, Victorias, Sagay, San Carlos, La Carlota, and Talisay and six municipalities: Calatrava, E.B. Magalona, La Castellana, Murcia, Salvador Benedicto, and Pulupandan. Bago Watershed, Mt. Kanlaon and Northern Negros Natural Parks have a total area of about 142,185 ha covering 87 barangays (Table 1). Of this, the municipality of Murcia shares the biggest area (27,891 ha) covering 24 barangays. This is followed by the municipality of San Carlos City, which occupies 26,752 ha covering 8 barangays. The smallest area belongs to Vallehermoso covering 2 barangays.

The headwaters of the Bago Watershed originate from the upper slopes of the watershed within the forestlands of Murcia, Salvador Benedicto, and San Carlos City. These forested areas include the proclaimed Bago Watershed Forest Reserve under Proclamation No. 604 dated June 28, 1990. The forest reserve encompasses an area of 61,926 ha or approximately 66% of the entire Bago Watershed. The headwater regime is also straddled between and includes portions of two ecologically sensitive areas, namely the Mt. Kanlaon Natural Park (MKNP) and the North Negros Natural Park (NNNP).

MKNP is a complex volcano and surrounded by several craters and volcanic peaks. The present cone of the volcano forms a bald and pointed peak that dominates the whole north central region of the Negros Island. MKNP also features the Margaha Valley with an area of more or less 40 ha and about 2,041 masl. The valley is deep and roughly circular surrounded by sheer rock walls, lying about 335 m below the cone of the volcano. It lies in the northeastern mountain ranges. Furthermore, the MKNP was declared a natural park by virtue of Presidential Proclamation No. 1005 dated May 8, 1997 and was included among the initial components of the National Integrated Protected Areas System (NIPAS) of the country as mandated by Republic Act 7586 of 1992. It covers an area of approximately 14,909 ha or 18% of the entire Bago Watershed within the cities of San Carlos and Bago.

On the other hand, the NNFR was declared a natural park pursuant to Presidential Decree No. 895 dated August 2005. It covers approximately 18,952 ha or 22% of the entire Bago Watershed area within the cities of Talisay and La Carlota and the municipalities of Don Salvador Benedicto, Murcia and Calatrava. The North Negros Natural Park lies in the northern mountain chains.

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 1

Figure 1. The Bago Watershed and its surrounding natural parks

2 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS Table 1. Number of barangays by municipality/city and their area coverage within the Bago Watershed and its Natural Parks

No. of barangays Area of the Area covered by the Percent Municipality covered by the municipality (ha)* watershed (ha)* covered watershed Bago City 14 35,090 20,570 58.6 Cadiz City 4 51,618 16,854 32.7 Calatrava 8 34,454 10,561 30.7 Canlaon 3 14,733 2562 17.4 City City of Talisay 2 19,901 6,034 30.3 City of Victorias 1 10,355 1,179 11.4 Enrique B. Magalona 2 14,032 1,077 7.7 La Carlota City 2 12,101 1,542 12.7 La Castellana 5 19,691 2,800 14.2 Murcia 24 36,420 27,891 76.6 Pulupandan 2 1,613 1,090 67.6 Sagay City 2 30,462 2,232 7.3 Salvador Benedicto 6 18,222 18,222 100.0 San Carlos City 8 40,897 26,752 65.4 Silay City 2 19,652 2,673 13.6 Vallehermoso 2 11,403 146 1.3 Total 87 370,644 142,185 *GIS generated area

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 3

THE CLIMATE PROFILE

BASELINE CLIMATE

Based on Modified Corona’s Classification System, the area has a Type III climate, which is characterized by two very distinct seasons (Agpaoa et al., 1975). The dry season usually starts in November and ends in April while the wet season begins in May and peaks in July or August and ends in October.

Records from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Agromet Research Center at La Granja, La Carlota City showed that from 1975 to 2003 the normal monthly rainfall distribution ranged from 58.7 mm in January to 422.1 mm in July. The average annual rainfall was 2,642 mm.

The average mean annual temperature is approximately 27.4 °C. The coldest month is January and the hottest is May. The lowest mean monthly temperature (26.3 °C) was registered in January and the highest mean monthly temperature (28.7 °C) was registered in April. The normal monthly minimum temperature ranged from 20.6 °C in January to 23.3 °C. The normal monthly maximum temperature ranged from 31.8 °C in July and August to 34.9 °C in April.

The normal monthly relative humidity in the watersheds does not vary much with a narrow range of only 76% to 85%. Further, climatic variables details are shown in Table 2.

The normal annual evaporation rate during the period averages 3.9 mm day with the highest daily rate in the month of April at 5.5 mm and lowest in the months of July and October at 3.1 mm per day.

Northern Negros is frequently visited by typhoons or cyclones. A total of 68 tropical cyclones passed within 50 km of the watershed between 1948 and 2009. Northern Negros often experiences erratic and extreme weather events. On average, the area is visited by 3 typhoons per year. It is during November and December when the most number of cyclones would cross the watersheds whereas the months of July to September are almost free of tropical cyclones. The tracks of past tropical cyclones in the area are shown in Figure 2.

Table 2. Monthly mean climatic variables based on La Granja, La Carlota Agromet Station (1975-2003)

Relative Rainfall No. of Rainy Temperature Temperature Temperature Month Humidity (mm) Days (Max) (Min) (Mean) (%) Jan 58.7 8 32 20.6 26.3 85 Feb 43.9 7 32.8 20.4 26.6 82 Mar 56 8 34.1 21.1 27.6 78 Apr 89.2 8 34.9 22.3 28.6 76 May 210.5 16 34.1 23.3 28.7 79 Jun 346.3 21 32.4 23 27.7 83 Jul 422.1 23 31.8 22.7 27.3 85 Aug 368.7 21 31.8 22.8 27.3 85

4 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS Relative Rainfall No. of Rainy Temperature Temperature Temperature Month Humidity (mm) Days (Max) (Min) (Mean) (%) Sep 365.7 21 32 22.7 27.3 85 Oct 349.7 21 32.3 22.4 27.4 84 Nov 219.6 15 32.4 22 27.2 84 Dec 111.9 13 31.9 21.2 26.6 85 Annual 2642 182 32.8 22.1 27.4 83

Figure 2. Tracks of tropical cyclones that crossed the province of Negros Occidental (1948 – 2009)

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 5 CLIMATE SCENARIO FOR NORTHERN NEGROS IN 2020 AND 2050

In order to assess future vulnerabilities to flooding, drought and landslide, projections of future changes in rainfall in 2020 and 2050 were prepared by the PAGASA using the CNRM-CM3 model (also known as CNCM3 model) with two scenarios. CNRM-CM3 coupled generation circulation model is the sum of the updated version of the different model components already present in CNRM-CM2 (Salas-Melia et al., 2005).

In this assessment, the model outputs under the two scenarios were within a planning horizon of up to 2050. Outputs of the model under the A1B and A2 scenarios will only diverge after 2050 due to the long lifetimes of the greenhouse gases. The outputs of the model runs for the observed monthly, and changes in the monthly rainfall both in 2020 and 2050 were used in the vulnerability assessments.

The simulated monthly rainfall ranges from 29 mm to 652 mm. The mean monthly rainfall of two scenarios (A1B and A2) was not significantly different from each period. The driest month, April, still sees on average, over 62 mm of precipitation per year. The wettest months are August and December with a monthly mean of more than 300 mm (Figure 3 and Table 3).

In particular, the monthly precipitation fluctuated each month for two periods. However, the most distinct changes were predicted to be in the 2020s period under A2 scenario where the months of May, August and December had indicated a potential decrease. Other periods closely followed the trends and patterns. Overall, an increase of annual rainfall was predicted in each scenario for two periods (Table 4).

Figure 3. Observed and projected monthly rainfall in Northern Negros

6 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS Table 3. Projected rainfall based on CNCM3 model with two scenarios

A1B A2 Month Observed 2020 2050 2020 2050 Jan 176.3 176.0 182.4 182.5 140.9 Feb 117.5 243.2 127.1 65.2 167.9 Mar 114.5 115.5 127.8 129.2 193.0 Apr 98.2 73.9 117.3 95.9 70.5 May 168.3 353.7 202.5 140.1 228.9 Jun 274.5 225.5 315.4 314.4 149.8 Jul 305.1 178.2 353.7 267.8 159.0 Aug 353.6 418.8 402.7 533.1 202.8 Sep 239.9 264.4 293.2 332.9 364.0 Oct 258.1 272.3 261.7 328.6 302.0 Nov 219.1 312.2 244.2 194.2 265.9 Dec 278.0 400.9 312.7 241.5 262.5 Total 2603.1 3,034.5 2,940.8 2,825.3 2,507.2 Min 98.2 73.9 117.3 65.2 70.5 Max 353.6 418.8 402.7 533.1 364.0 SD 82.14 176.0 182.4 182.5 140.9 Ave 216.9 243.2 127.1 65.2 167.9

Table 4. Estimated changes in average monthly rainfall by 2020 and 2050

A1B A2 Month 2020 2050 2020 2050 Jan 0 3 3 -20 Feb 107 8 -45 43 Mar 1 12 13 69 Apr -25 19 -2 -28 May 110 20 -17 36 Jun -18 15 15 -45 Jul -42 16 -12 -48 Aug 18 14 51 -43 Sep 10 22 39 52 Oct 6 1 27 17 Nov 43 11 -11 21 Dec 44 12 -13 -6 Total 17 13 9 -4

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 7

ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK AND METHODOLOGY

DATA COLLECTION

An exhaustive collection, examination and analysis of existing documents was conducted. The Geographic Information System (GIS) geodatabase used in the overlay analysis was derived from the information contained in the sources and satellite data (Table 5).

Table 5. Available datasets for the assessment

Layer Description Source Bago Watershed/ PA Extent of assessment Interpolated from DEM boundary NAMRIA; DENR-FMB Fault lines Fault lines of the Philippine Islands PHIVOLCS Geology Soil morphology FAO datasets; BSWM Soil series/ Soil texture Soil series map BSWM (1965; 2005) Barangay Barangay map NAMRIA; www.philgis.org Town and city Administrative boundaries based on town NAMRIA; www.philgis.org and city DEM Digital Elevation Model of the Philippines ASTER-GDEM River River networks within the area NAMRIA-DENR; MPDO Standardized Precipitation Computed based on monthly average Derived Index rainfall Land cover 2010 Land Cover Map NAMRIA-DENR Vegetative Index Derived from land satellite 8 imageries www.earthexplorer.usgs.gov Rainfall Daily rainfall data Silay Weather Station; www.acuaweather.com Population Density Based on 2010 population distribution by National Statics Office barangay Watershed shape Based on sub-watersheds shape Interpolated from DEM

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

A GIS-based assessment was conducted to determine the area’s vulnerable to the climate hazards. The assessment was undertaken by determining inherently sensitive areas due to topography and their exposure. Vulnerability or hazard maps were prepared to show which areas in the watershed and natural parks require immediate attention to minimize the adverse impacts of changing climate. The assessment made use of simulated hazard maps derived from overlay analyses associated with different variables based on the observed and projected climate scenarios. Of the many different types of hazards related to climate change, flood drought, and landslides were selected for assessment in this project. The selection is founded on the understanding that the projected climatic changes in the area involve significant variations in the amount and seasonal pattern of rainfall. With shorter/ drier dry seasons and longer/ wetter wet seasons expected to become more prevalent, more frequent flood and drought events are expected to affect the local communities’ activities.

Hazard assessment was conducted based on different factors and their relative weights. Vulnerability maps to climate hazards for two (2) climate scenarios based on future with time

8 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS periods of 2020 (base year 2006-2035) and 2050 (base year 2036-2065) were developed following the processes as illustrated in Figure 4.

Bio-physical Characteristics • Soil • Geology • Land cover/ Climate Scenarios Vegetative cover (Observed, 2020s • Drainage and 2050s) • Road networks • Fault lines • Elevation and slope

Land Capability Socio-demographic Vulnerability Classification Characteristics Maps • Soil Erosion • Population by (Flood, Drought Potentials barangay and Landslide) • • Population density Production areas • • Farming systems Protection areas

Climate Characteristics • Rainfall • Standard Precipitation Index ZONING Ground Validation and Consultation

Figure 4. Framework of the vulnerability assessment

The assessment used the land capability evaluation tool in conducting adaptive capacity assessment. Land capability evaluation is a strategic planning tool in integrating climate change. The tool was used as part of vulnerability assessment under the MDG-F 1656 project for the purpose of developing an integrated watershed management plan. The tool was patterned after the VA framework by observing the process of problem identification, implementation and assessment following steps of Land Capability Classification Process.

HAZARDS ASSESSMENT

Flood Hazard Assessment

Flood hazard maps for 2020 and 2050 were generated by adjusting the existing flood hazard maps based on the projected mean annual frequency of days with rainfall of at least 100 mm. The susceptibility flood hazard map was generated based on different factors and their relative weights. The flood modeling is based on the overlay of six (6) contributing factors, namely slope, land cover/land use, soils, elevation, sub-watershed shape, and stream buffer (Table 6). Each factor is classified into five (5) categories ranging from very normal to very high classes. The different factors are described below:

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 9 a. Slope: The slope of the different sites was generated using a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with a resolution of 30 m. A slope of >30% is considered to have very normal susceptibility and a slope range of 0-3% is classified to be highly susceptible to flood.

b. Land Cover: The 2010 land cover data was used for this factor. Water bodies and open areas are classified as highly susceptible to flood because they can generate high surface runoff while forested areas are considered to have normal susceptibility to flooding.

c. Soils: The different soil textural classes, more commonly known as the soil series, mainly describe the soil factors. These textural classes ranged from clay to sandy types. Water- holding capacity of soils at field capacity and wilting point of different soil textures are considered in the classification. Hence, clay types are deemed to be highly susceptible and sandy types are classified to have normal susceptibility to flood.

d. Elevation: The elevation was generated from the DEM. Higher elevations are considered to be resistant to flooding and these are classified to have normal susceptibility while slower elevations are regarded as areas with very high susceptibility to flooding.

e. Watershed Shape: The shape of different sub-watersheds with the watershed was interpolated from the DEM. Almost elongated watershed is classified to be less susceptible while a watershed with nearly circular in shape is highly susceptible to flood.

f. Stream Buffer: The stream was generated from the 30 m DEM and then buffers were interpolated. Distance within 30 m from the stream is classified to be highly susceptible to flood while buffers with >1000 m distance from the stream is regarded to have very normal susceptibility.

Table 6. Summary of the classified ranges for the different layers/factors considered in the flood susceptibility

Classes/ Relative Layer/ Factor Ranges weights Elevation >150 1 (ranges in masl) 80 - 150 2 40 - 80 3 20 - 40 4 <20 5 Slope >30 1 (% ranges) 18 - 30 2 8 - 18 3 3 - 8 4 0 - 3 5 Stream buffer <100 1 (buffer ranges in m) 100 – 200 2 200 – 300 3 300 – 500 4 >500 5 Soil texture Fine sand 1 (categories) Sandy loam; Fine sandy loam 2 Loam; Sandy clay loam; Sandy clay; Silty clay; Silt 3 loam Silty clay loam; Clay loam 4 Clay 5 Land cover Closed forest 1 (categories) Open forest; Plantation 2

10 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS Classes/ Relative Layer/ Factor Ranges weights Shrubs; Natural grassland 3 Agricultural/Cultivated; Pasture land; Built-up 4 Bare; Water bodies; Inland water 5 Watershed shape <0.25 (almost elongated) 5 (ratio; descriptive) 0.25 – 0.40 4 0.40 – 0.60 3 0.60 – 0.80 2 >0.80 (almost circular) 1

The flood susceptibility (FS) map was generated using a map overlay analysis of the five criteria or factors namely, slope, soils, stream buffer, elevation and land cover. The highest relative weight was given to elevation (38%). It was followed by slope factor (24%), stream buffer (17%), shape of the watershed (12%) and soil series (6%), while the lowest relative weight was calculated for the land cover factor (3%). Relative weights were applied to determine the flood susceptibility by using the following equation:

퐹푆 = (퐸푙푒푣푎푡𝑖표푛 × 0.38) + (푆푙표푝푒 × 0.24) + (푆푡푟푒푎푚 푏푢푓푓푒푟 × 0.17) + (푆ℎ푎푝푒 × 0.12) + (푆표𝑖푙 푠푒푟𝑖푒푠 × 0.06) + (퐿푎푛푑 푐표푣푒푟 × 0.03)

Based on the overlay analyses of these factors, the different flood susceptibility models were generated.

Drought Hazard Assessment

Vulnerability to drought is the relationship of susceptibility to physical factors, exposure to climatic factors and adaptability to anthropogenic factors. Basically, each factor was assigned a relative weight according to their influence. Each factor with the specific hazard values was prepared and analyzed for simulation. All factors followed the same scaling factor procedures to assess and map out vulnerable areas (Table 7). Overall, drought hazard maps for observed 2020s and 2050s periods were produced based on different factors and their relative weights. Different factors are described below:

a. Standardized Precipitation Index: The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a tool developed primarily for defining and monitoring drought. It determines the rarity of a drought at a given time scale of interest for the given station. It can also be used to determine periods of anomalously wet events. It must be noted that the SPI is not a drought prediction tool. Mathematically, the SPI is based on the cumulative probability of a given rainfall event occurring in the station.

The SPI was generated from the variation in a gamma distribution function. The function was a standard deviation and a mean, which depends on the rainfall characteristics of the area. The SPI can effectively represent the amount of rainfall over a given time scale, with the advantage that it provides not only information on the amount of rainfall, but that it also gives an indication of the relation of this amount to the normal, thus leading to the definition of whether a station is experiencing drought or not. In essence, the SPI value of greater than 0 is considered to be wet to extremely wet. Higher exposure values are greater than 2, which were classified as extremely dry.

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 11 b. Elevation: The elevation was generated using the digital elevation model. Higher elevations are classified as resistant to drought and have low susceptibility while low elevations are regarded as areas with severe susceptibility to drought.

c. Soils: The different soil textural classes, more commonly known as the soil series, describe the soil factors. These textural classes ranged from fine sand to clay types. Water retention of several soil textures is already reported in literature (Plaster, 2003). Hence, fine sand types are deemed to be highly susceptible and silt loam types are classified to have low susceptibility to drought.

d. Irrigation Canal and River: Streams and canals assessment is based on the available datasets and then buffers were interpolated. Distance within 500 m from the stream and canal is classified as not susceptible to drought while buffers with >2000 m distance from the stream is regarded to have low susceptibility.

e. Population Density: Population density was estimated based on the 2010 population and area per barangay. The barangays with more than 200 person/ha are classified to be severely susceptible to drought while barangays with less than 10 person/ha are assigned to have low susceptibility.

f. Vegetative Index: The latest land satellite imageries were used for this factor. The influence of water bodies is considered normal with values ranging from -1 to 0. Open and built up areas are classified as severely susceptible to drought because they can generate high soil and surface evaporation losses.

Table 7. Summary of the classified ranges for the different layers/factors considered in the drought susceptibility

Classes/ Relative Layer/ Factor Ranges weights Standardized Precipitation Index >0 wet to extremely wet 1 0 – -1 (near normal) 2 -1 to -1.5 (moderately dry) 3 -1.5 to -2.0 (severely dry) 4 >-2 (extremely dry) 5 Elevation >1000 1 (masl) 500 - 1000 2 200 - 5000 3 100 - 200 4 0 – 100 5 Distance of existing irrigation canal 0-250 1 and river 250-500 2 (buffer ranges in m) 500-1000 3 2000-3000 4 >3000 5 Soil texture Silt loam 1 (categories) Clay loam; Loam 2 Fine sandy loam 3 Sandy loam; Clay; Sandy loam 4 Fine sand 5 Vegetative index -1.0 - 0 1 (NDVI range index) 0.5 – 1.0 2 0.30 – 0.50 3 0.15 – 0.30 4 0 - 0.15 5

12 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS Classes/ Relative Layer/ Factor Ranges weights Population Density <10 1 (person/ha) by barangays 10 -50 2 50 - 100 3 100 - 500 4 >500 5

Landslide Hazard Assessment

It is essential for landslide susceptibility assessment to involve the detailed knowledge of slope processes that lead to landslides. Such information includes geology, geomorphology and hydrogeology. Sufficient geotechnical information about the slopes also improves slope failure modeling. A number of important data are, as of yet, not available with the Negros Occidental Province, such as soil thickness and rainfall-landslide thresholds. Hence, additional constraints were incorporated in the landslide susceptibility modeling to improve its reliability. In order to define the landslide susceptibility, the matrix method in a GIS environment was applied (e.g., Irigaray et al., 2007; Jimenez- Peralvarez, 2009).

The vulnerability to landslide is a function of different physical factors, and the different thematic maps (slope, soil, geology (geo-hazard), land cover and climate). Essentially, each factor assigned a relative weight according to their influence in landslide occurrence. Each factor with the specific hazard values was prepared and analyzed for simulation (Table 8). All physical factors followed the same scaling factor procedures. Degrees within each factor were given relative weights (from low to high) depending on the degree by which they could influence landslide susceptibility. The geomorphologic and heuristics analyses were utilized to assess and map out areas vulnerable to landslide.

Table 8. Summary of the classified ranges for the different layers/factors considered in the landslide susceptibility modeling

Classes/ Relative Layer/ Factor Ranges weights Elevation <200 1 (ranges in masl) 200 - 400 2 400 - 600 3 600 - 800 4 >800 5 Slope <8 1 (% ranges) 8 - 18 2 18 - 30 3 30 - 50 4 >50 5 Rainfall <100 1 (buffer ranges in mm) 100 – 200 2 200 – 300 3 300 – 500 4 >500 mm 5 Soil Morphology Tropaquepts w/ Entropepts; Udorthents & Tropepts 1 (categories) Tropopsamments w/ Troporthents; Eutrandepts w/ 2 Eutropepts Tropudalfs w/ Tropepts 3 Entropepts w/ Dystropepts 4 Tropudults w/ Tropudalfs; Mountain soils w/ 5 Entisols, Inceptisols, Ultisols and Alfisols

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 13 Classes/ Relative Layer/ Factor Ranges weights Land cover Closed forest 1 (categories) Open forest; Plantation 2 Shrubs; Natural grassland 3 Agricultural/Cultivated; Pasture land; Built-up 4 Bare 5 Fault lines <500 5 (buffer ranges in meters) 500 - 2000 4 2000 - 5000 3 5000 - 8000 2 >8000 1 Road Network <150 5 (buffer ranges in meters) 150 - 300 4 300 - 500 3 500 - 1000 2 >1000 1

LAND CAPABILITY CLASSIFICATION

Land capability is the capability of the land to sustain the forest ecosystem. Rainfall, soil and topography are the factors considered for determining the survival of a forest ecosystem. These factors are assessed for land capability assessment for sustaining forests and (other) ecosystems. Before, land capability assessment was conducted without the consideration of climate change. Today, climate change has been incorporated with land capability, since climate change will have an impact on forest ecosystems over time.

Land capability evaluation process looks at the characteristics of each factor and how it affects the capability of the land to sustain the forest ecosystem. This process was applied as a product of land capability classification, which was undertaken using the potential soil erosion of an area as basis.

Figure 5 shows the framework derived from the erosion-based land capability classification system (LCCS) developed by Warren et al. (1989) in the United States and applied by Cruz (1990) in Ibulao Watershed, by De Asis (1998) in UP Land Grant, Quezon-Laguna, and by Cruz et al. (2010) in Pantabangan and Ambuklao-Binga Watersheds, Philippines, by EDC (2012) in five (5) geothermal project sites, and by DENR-R4 (2013) in San Juan River Watershed.

Soil erosion is a suitable indicator of land capability because of common key determinants (i.e., rainfall, soil and topography). Soil erosion is also a good measure of the sustainability of land productivity, which is the primary success indicator of land capability. The premise of an erosion-based LCCS is that any use that is compatible with a specific land capability class (LCC) or zone will not cause significant soil erosion that will lead to the deterioration of land productivity and soil and water resources. Moreover, the planned use should not bring about adverse offsite impacts. Climate change related hazards, such as floods, rain-induced landslides and other natural hazards, impose limitations on the potential uses of LCC.

Following the procedure described by Warren et al. (1989) and with the aid of GIS analytical techniques, erosion index was developed and used for land capability classification.

14 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS Rainfall Land Capability Soil Erosion Classification Soil Potential

Topograph y

Figure 5. Framework for erosion-based land capability classification system

Generation of Soil Erosion Potential

Soil erosion potential (SEP) was estimated using the principle of the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) developed by Wischmeier and Smith (1978). Originally, the equation includes the rainfall erosivity factor (R), soil erodibility factor (K), topographic factors (slope, S and length, L), plant cover and farming techniques (C), and erosion control practices (P). However, SEP was computed the same except for the C factor. The C was excluded because it can easily be altered by the activities of man. In particular, the equation is as follows:

푺푬푷 = 푹 × 푲 × 푳푺 × 푷

Rainfall Factor (R)

In 1987, David and Collado adopted an equation to estimate the value of R given the limited rainfall data in Northern and Central Luzon, Philippines. The equation is shown as follows:

m R  A P j  i where: Rj = number of erosion index units on a given year j; Pi = daily precipitation total for a given day i in any year j; m = an exponent A = an empirical constant designed to relate the precipitation amount P with raindrop erosive energy

In the application of the above equation, only rainfall totals, Pi exceeding the threshold value of 25 mm is used, while values of m and A are 2.0 and 0.002, respectively.

In this assessment, the computation of R was based on the above equation. According to David (1988), the use of an A value of 0.002 renders the R estimates compatible with those of the USLE. The R factor is computed from the daily rainfall records exceeding or equal to 25 mm, which is commonly considered as erosion producing rainfall events. These records were obtained from acuawheather data portal and La Carlota Agromet station in Negros Occidental Province.

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 15 Soil Erodibility Factor (K)

Owing to the lack of a detailed soil map, the K-values were estimated using the Wischmeier and Mannering (1969) equation as modified by David (1987) and used by Cruz (1990), Pudasaini (1992), Singh (1993), Bantayan (1996), De Asis (1998), and Combalicer (2000). This equation was estimated on the basis of particle size distribution, organic matter content, and pH. It was also simplified and adjusted for Philippine conditions. The equation is as follows:

 0.621  K  0.043pH  0.0082Sa 0.0062C S  OM  where: K = erodibility factor OM = organic matter content in percent Sa = percent sand %clay C = clay ratio  % sand  % silt % silt S = 100

The K values for the different soil series identified are shown in Table 9.

Table 9. K-values for the Bago Watershed

Soil series K-value Bago fine sandy loam 0.30 Bago loam 0.28 Bago sandy clay loam 0.27 Beach sand 0.30 Cadiz gravelly loam 0.28 Faraon clay 0.15 Faraon clay (Steep phase) 0.15 Guimbalaon clay 0.15 Guimbalaon fine sandy loam 0.30 Guimbalaon gravelly loam 0.28 Guimbalaon loam 0.28 Hydrosol 0.15 Isabela clay 0.15 La Castellana clay loam 0.22 Luisiana clay 0.18 Manapla loam 0.28 Obando sand 0.20 Pellupandan sandy loam 0.27 Rough Mountainous land 0.20 San Manuel fine sandy loam 0.30 Silay clay 0.15 Silay fine sandy loam 0.30 Silay loam 0.28 Silay sandy loam 0.27 Tupi fine sandy loam 0.30

16 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS Slope Length and Slope Gradient Factor (LS)

The topographic factor is the combined effects of slope length (L) and slope steepness (S) on soil erosion. Slope length is the horizontal distance downslope from the point where overland flow begins up to where runoff enters a waterway or where deposition starts. Slope gradient is the field or segment slope, usually expressed as a percentage.

Slope length and slope gradient have significant roles in the erosion process. Since they are related, the effects of both factors were evaluated as a single topographic factor. Using combination equations of Smith and Wischmeier (1957) and Williams and Berndt (1972) as adopted by Cruz (1990), Sing (1993), Pudasaini (1993), Oszaer (1994), and Combalicer (2000). LS can be computed as follows:

m  L  LS  4.705   0.0076  0.0053 S  0.00076 S 2   22.13 

where: LS = topographic factor (unitless) L = slope length factor S = average slope in % m = an exponent m = 0.5 if S>5 m = 0.4 if 5>S>3 m = 0.3 if 3>S>1 m = 0.2 if S<1

Creation of Soil Loss Tolerance

Soil loss tolerance limit of a watershed is a common expression of the SEP estimates. The T value is an expression of the maximum soil loss that an area can sustain without regressing in productivity permanently or temporarily. It is a function of the rate of soil accumulation in an area that is dependent on the slope of an area. Hence, the slope was reclassified according to its soil loss tolerable limits (Table 10).

Table 10. Prescribed soil loss tolerance in the watershed

Slope Soil Loss Tolerance (ton/ha) 0 - 3 20 3 - 8 15 8 - 18 12 18 - 30 10 30 – 50 7 >50 5

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 17 Determination of Soil Erosion Index

The computation of soil erosion index (SEI) is essential to standardize the SEP estimates. As it is, the SEP per se when directly used as indicator of sensitivity or susceptibility of an area to soil erosion, does not capture the full weight of slope as a determinant of soil erosion in an area. Hence, the equation is as follows:

푆퐸푃 푆퐸퐼 = 푆퐿푇

Generation of Land Capability Classification

Land use zones were delineated based on land capability as indicated by Soil Erosion Index and other criteria as shown in Table 11. Two (2) major zones, namely protection and production, were identified. Each major zone was further classified into subzones. It is noted here that the output zonation and the indicative land uses in the area are intended to provide a scientific basis for allocating the lands in the municipalities to various uses.

Zoning is not meant to be prescriptive in any absolute sense. The land capability zoning map is an ideal physical framework for allocating the lands within the watershed. The primary goal is to sustain the long-term productivity of the land and promote the sustainability of biodiversity, soil and water resources and the delivery of key services of ecosystems in and out of the area. The decision on how the lands are ultimately used still rests with the managers, farmers, and other stakeholders.

Table 11. Land capability classification criteria

Class Land Classification SEI Management Prescriptions I PROTECTION AREAS

Strict Protection Zone Strict protection, limited collection of All remaining natural forests, all areas with high ornamental plants, herbs, vines, fruits IA erosion potential and slope >50%, all key >5 and other non-timber products may be biodiversity areas, all areas categorized as allowed SAFDZ, all other areas with SEI > 5 Permanent crops (fruit trees, bamboo), Protection Buffer Zone harvesting of fruits and bamboo shoots IB All areas within 40 m of stream banks, all areas and culms will be allowed but no within 50 m of major watershed divides; harvesting of trees will be allowed IC Key Biodiversity Area For biodiversity conservation II PRODUCTION AREAS 0 - 5

Timber and fruit tree plantations, Unlimited Production Zone agriculture and agroforestry can be IIA Grasslands and brushlands; built up and 0 - 1 allowed with suitable soil and water cultivated areas conservation measures, settlement can be allowed Multi-storey timber and fruit tree Multiple Use Zone plantations, agroforestry can be allowed IIB Grasslands and brushlands; built up and 1 - 3 with suitable soil and water conservation cultivated areas measures Multi-storey timber and fruit tree IIC Limited Production Zone 3 - 5 plantations

18 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS VALIDATION

Results of simulation based on physical, demographic, vegetative and climatic data were validated on site. Different stakeholders from municipalities within the watershed were considered as key informants in the area. Key informants are primarily the municipal planning and development officer and the disaster risk reduction risk and management officer (Plate No. 1). Each informant was asked of his/her observation on the degree of hazard susceptibility of every barangay. High susceptible barangays are considered to have previous experience of landslide, drought and flood.

Site visit followed after interviews and document gathering in the entire watershed. The location of sites visited is shown in Figure 6.

Figure 6. Site visited during the validation in the Bago Watershed and its natural parks

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 19

Plate 1. Participants during the vulnerability assessment validation workshop, (Taken March 3, 2015)

20 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS

FINDINGS

HAZARDS ASSESSMENT

Flood Hazard Assessment

Flood is commonly defined as an overflow of water onto normally dry land. It is also described as the inundation of a normally dry area caused by rising water in an existing river networks and waterways. In this assessment, flood scenarios were generated given physical factors, vegetative conditions and rainfall amounts based on CNCM3 model with two scenarios during the 2020s and 2050s periods.

Table 12 shows the summary of vulnerability ratings and area coverage in the Bago Watershed. Highly vulnerable areas range from 20 to 5,000 ha given the observed and projected scenarios for 2020s and 2050s periods. In proclaimed natural parks, there are no indication of high flooding susceptibility considering primarily their topographic locations. In particular, moderate to high vulnerable areas is likely increasing under A2 scenario that would affect to as much as 5,000 ha of the watershed.

As shown in Figures 7 to 11, the assigned colors represent specific categories and translated into susceptibilities. In short, it is the possibility of floods in the watershed covered by the each colored representation. However, susceptibility flooding cannot be equated with floodwaters. In particular, the blue color suggests that the areas covered are highly susceptible to flooding at any given event. Although it was categorized in one single category, this does not mean that the entire area will be under flooding all at the same time at any given event but rather depending on the magnitude of rainfall and influence of associated factors. In any given tropical storms and extreme rainfall events, some parts will be highly affected, others moderately affected, and some low at all.

Table 13 describes information on the distribution of areas vulnerable to floods for different barangays. Areas affected by flood risk were found in barangays Culo and Ubay in Pulupandan given the observed scenario. In the A1B scenario, a portion of three barangays in Bago City (Busay, Ma-Ao Barrio, and Napoles), and two (2) barangays in Pulupundan (Culo and Ubay) were categorized as highly susceptible areas within the Bago Watershed. However, a portion of eight (8) barangays in Bago City, namely: Alianza, Atipunan, Busay, Caridad, Ma-Ao Barrio, Malingin, Napoles, and Pacol were predicted as highly susceptible areas. The remaining barangays are ranked low to moderate in terms of flooding. As a result, spatial risk assessment described that part of Pulupandan and Bago City were areas exposed to flooding (Plate No. 2). Generally, the climate change phenomenon certainly affects the surface runoff and water discharge towards the low lying areas of the Bago Watershed.

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 21

Plate 2. A highly susceptible area to flooding in Pulupandan (March 3, 2015)

Flooding remains to be the topmost hazard that some barangays are exposed. In Northern Negros Natural Park, the Himugaan river floods were intensified by factors associated with the drainage networks and stream channels from the Pakol and Hamtikon rivers. Most of the channels operate to speed up the movement of water within the Himugaan watershed located in the northern part of the Northern Negros Natural Park.

In Bago Watershed, another contributing factor of flooding is the sea level rise based on predicted climate change especially in terms of river mouth flood risks. The coastal areas of Bago City and the municipality of Pulupandan near the mouth of Bago River are potentially significant geo- hazardous areas due to fluvial flooding. Occasionally, high tide coincides with heavy rainfall events. In addition, moderate flood prone areas are those covered by the municipalities of Murcia because of the volume and velocity of water coming from the high slopes and logged over areas.

Flooding in low-lying areas and stream channels is a leading concern in the watershed. In 1990, the Bago and Pulupandan have experienced flooding that affected residents in terms of lives lost and damage to properties and crops. Heavy to torrential rainfall brought about by tropical storms and typhoons mainly caused the incidents of flooding. These conditions are also perceived due to forest degradation, poor drainage system, siltation of waterways and increasing urbanization. Floods often result to loss or damage to life, economic assets and production base, contamination of water supply and health issues from water-borne and water-related diseases.

Based on the interviews conducted with stakeholders, there was no significant flooding that took place within the watershed. However, incidence of flash floods occurred at some of the stream

22 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS intersections draining to Pataan Falls. Most of the flooding occurred at the Bantolinao-Maugbi sub-watershed located in Bago City and Murcia.

Overall, it was predicted that there will be no shifting in weather patterns that will bring degrees of variation of monthly rainfall in the near future. Damaging typhoons and tropical storms will usually happen in the months of August and September, which will likely contribute to significant increase of surface runoff in the watershed. This pattern and trend may increase the incidence and magnitude of flooding as the amount and variation of rainfalls change in the area.

Table 12. Vulnerability to flooding and its area coverage of the Bago Watershed and its influence natural parks

Bago Watershed A1B A2 Vulnerability Observed 2020 2050 2020 2050 Low 61,136 55,779 55,779 41,073 61,136 Moderate 17,059 21,364 21,364 32,103 17,059 High 23 1,075 1,075 5,043 23 Total 78,218 78,218 78,218 78,218 78,218 Mt Kanlaon Natural Park A1B A2 Vulnerability Observed 2020 2050 2020 2050 Low 22,195 22,439 22,439 18,558 22,195 Moderate 1,904 1,661 1,661 5,542 1,904 High Total 24,100 24,100 24,100 24,100 24,100 Northern Negros Natural Park A1B A2 Vulnerability Observed 2020 2050 2020 2050 Low 58,953 57,566 57,566 41,202 58,953 Moderate 4,963 6,350 6,350 22,714 4,963 High - - 1 Total 63,917 63,917 63,917 63,917 63,917

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 23 Table 13. Vulnerability to flooding by barangay of the Bago Watershed, Northern Negros

A1B Scenario A2 Scenario Barangay/ Municipality Observed Validated 2020 2050 2020 2050 BAGO CITY Abuanan moderate moderate low low moderate moderate Alianza low low moderate moderate high low Atipuluan moderate moderate moderate moderate high moderate Bacong-Montilla moderate moderate low low moderate moderate Busay moderate moderate high high high moderate Calumangan low low low low moderate low Caridad low low moderate moderate high low Dulao moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate Jorge L. Araneta (Ma- low low moderate moderate moderate low Ao Central) Ma-Ao Barrio moderate moderate high high high moderate Malingin moderate moderate moderate moderate high moderate Napoles moderate moderate high high high moderate Pacol moderate moderate moderate moderate high moderate Taloc low low low low moderate low CADIZ CITY Caduha-An low low low low low low Celestino Villacin low low low low moderate low Magsaysay low low low low low low V. F. Gustilo low low low low low low CALATRAVA Ani-E low low low low low low Dolis low low low low low low Laga-An low low low low low low Lalong low low low low moderate low Ma-Aslob low low low low low low Marcelo low low low low low low Menchaca low low low low moderate low Minapasuk low low low low low low CANLAON CITY Bayog low low low low low low Ninoy Aquino low low low low low low Pula low low low low low low CITY of TALISAY Cabatangan low low low low low low San Fernando low low low low moderate low CITY of VICTORIAS Barangay XI (Gawahon) low low low low low low

24 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS A1B Scenario A2 Scenario Barangay/ Municipality Observed Validated 2020 2050 2020 2050 ENRIQUE B. MAGALONA Canlusong low low low low low low San Isidro low low low low low low LA CARLOTA CITY Ara-Al low low low low low low Yubo low low low low low low LA CASTELLANA Biaknabato low low low low low low Cabagnaan low low low low low low Mansalanao low low low low low low Masulog low low low low low low Sag-Ang low low low low low low MURCIA Abo-Abo low low low low low low Alegria low low low low low low Amayco low low low low low low Blumentritt low low low low moderate low Buenavista low low low low low low Caliban low low low low low low Canlandog low low low low low low Cansilayan moderate low low low low moderate Damsite moderate low moderate moderate moderate moderate Forest Area low low low low moderate low Iglau-An low low low low low low Lopez Jaena low low low low moderate low Minoyan low low low low low low Pandanon* low low low low low low Salvacion low low low low low low San Miguel low low moderate moderate moderate low Santa Cruz low low low low low low Santa Rosa low low low low low low Talotog low low low low low low Zone I low low low low low low Zone II low low low low low low Zone III low low low low low low Zone IV low low low low low low Zone V low low low low low low PULUPANDAN Culo high high high high high high

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 25 A1B Scenario A2 Scenario Barangay/ Municipality Observed Validated 2020 2050 2020 2050 Ubay high high high high high high SAGAY CITY Colonia Divina low low low low low low Puey low low low low low low SALVADOR BENEDICTO Bago (Lalung) low low low low low low Bagong Silang moderate low low low low moderate (Marcelo) Bunga low low low low low low Igmaya-An low moderate moderate moderate moderate low Kumaliskis low low low low low low Pinowayan low low low low moderate low (Prosperidad) SAN CARLOS CITY Bagonbon low low low low low low Buluangan low low moderate moderate moderate low Codcod low low low low low low Nataban low low low low moderate low Palampas low low low low low low Prosperidad low low moderate moderate moderate low Quezon low low low low moderate low Rizal low low low low moderate low SILAY CITY Kapitan Ramon low low low low moderate low Guimbalaon low low low low moderate low Patag low low low low moderate low VALLEHERMOSO Bairan low - low low low low Maglahos low - low low low low Note: * with dispute

26 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS

Philippine Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience (B+WISER) Program

Figure 7. Flood vulnerability based on observed scenario under the CNCM3 model in the Bago Watershed, Northern Negros

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 27

Philippine Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience (B+WISER) Program

Figure 8. Flood vulnerability (2020s period) based on CNCM3 model (A1B scenario) in the Bago Watershed, Northern Negros

28 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS

Philippine Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience (B+WISER) Program

Figure 9. Flood vulnerability (2050s period) based on CNCM3 model (A1B scenario) in the Bago Watershed, Northern Negros

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 29

Philippine Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience (B+WISER) Program

Figure 10. Flood Vulnerability (2020s period) based on CNCM3 model (A1B scenario) in the Bago Watershed, Northern Negros

30 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS

Philippine Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience (B+WISER) Program

Figure 11. Flood Vulnerability (2050s period) based on CNCM3 model (A1B scenario) in the Bago Watershed, Northern Negros

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 31 Drought Hazard Assessment

Drought is described as the unavailability of water due to extreme weather conditions such as long period of abnormally low rainfall. It is also a condition of moisture deficit sufficient to have an effect on vegetation, animals, and man over a sizeable area. Basically, a drought-related hazard is an event in which a significant reduction of water brings about severe economic, social and environmental hardships to the population.

The vulnerability to drought was assessed primarily based on precipitation exposure, influence and distribution. In the Bago Watershed, drought would take place from January to April and a possibility to extend up to June under the observed and future scenarios. Months of January to April in 2020s and January to May in 2050s periods were registered from nearly normal (0 to -1) to moderately dry (-1.0 to -1.5) based on CNCM3 model simulation under the A1B scenario. On the other hand, the months of January to May (2020s) and January up to August (2050s) were simulated from nearly normal to moderately dry index under the A2 scenario. The remaining months are categorized under wet season (Figures 12 to 13).

The computed SPI in Northern Occidental Province can effectively represent the amount of rainfall over a given time scale, with the advantage that it provides not only information on the amount of rainfall. It also gives an indication of what this amount is in relation to the normal.

Table 14 presents the distribution of vulnerability rating from the Bago Watershed. Results show that there are about 150 to 7,000 ha (43%) that are highly susceptible to drought given the observed and projected scenarios.

The climate-related drought risk maps were generated and labeled as high (yellow), moderate (gray), and low (green) as shown in Figures 14 to 18. The attribute table was then generated to determine the barangay exposed to drought. As presented in Table 15, the spatial assessment indicates that a total of 10 barangays are vulnerable to drought. Bago City and the municipality of Pulupandan are projected to have high areas affected by drought (Plate No. 3). Based on the results, Barangays Abuanan, Atipulan, Bacong-Montilla, Busay, Clumangan, Jorge L. Araneta and Napoles in Bago City, and Barangays Culo and Ubay in Pulupandan are highly vulnerable to drought. The remaining areas are classified as moderate and low susceptible.

32 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS

Plate 3. Areas vulnerable to drought in the Bago Watershed (Pulupandan, Negros Occidental, February 3, 2015)

Generally, drought has been considered a recurring catastrophe particularly in the agricultural sector. Different cities and municipalities being agro-industrial towns are very susceptible to this condition and have thus adversely brought loss and damage to crops, which significantly affected the productivity of the sector that translated to income or opportunity loss. For instance, the recurring long dry season spells have greatly affected the present vegetation in the locality. These are particularly evident in heavily denuded areas within the MKNP especially within San Carlos City.

Based on key informant interviews conducted during the validation workshop, there were evidences of drought, which affect cropping season in the areas (Plate No. 4). The drought prone areas are mostly identified in the low-lying areas of cities and municipalities around the NNNP and MKNP or even in the entire watershed. Changes from low to moderate affected areas are increasing which mainly concentrated on the upper and mountainous barangays. This can be attributed to the influence of its topography and water availability during summer season. Forest areas appear not affected because of the presence of perennial streams and irrigation systems in the area.

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 33 A1B Scenario: Standardized Precipitation Index 2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 SPI

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

-2.0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 2020s 2050s

Figure 12. Standardized precipitation index based on CNCM3 A1B scenario of the Negros Occidental Province

A2 Scenario: Standardized Precipitation Index 2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5 SPI 0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

-2.0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D 2020s 2050s

Figure 13. Standardized precipitation index based on CNCM3 A2 scenario of the Negros Occidental Province

34 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS Table 14. Drought vulnerability and its area coverage of the Bago Watershed and its natural parks

Bago Watershed A1B A2 Vulnerability Observed 2020 2050 2020 2050 Low 54,125 41,749 54,125 54,125 41,749 Moderate 23,928 29,425 23,928 23,928 29,425 High 153 7,032 153 153 7,032 Total 78,206 78,206 78,206 78,206 78,206 Mt. Kanlaon Natural Park A1B A2 Vulnerability Observed 2020 2050 2020 2050 Low 20,821 19,912 20,821 20,821 19,912 Moderate 3,278 4,187 3,278 3,278 4,187 High 0 0 0 0 0 Total 24,100 24,100 24,100 24,100 24,100 Northern Negros Natural Park A1B A2 Vulnerability Observed 2020 2050 2020 2050 Low 54,739 41,078 54,739 54,739 40,745 Moderate 9,178 22,771 9,178 9,178 23,104 High 0 67 0 0 67 Total 63,917 63,917 63,917 63,917 63,917

Table 15. Drought vulnerability ratings by barangays in Bago Watershed, Northern Negros

A1B Scenario A2 Scenario Barangay/ Municipality Observed Validated 2020 2050 2020 2050 BAGO City Abuanan moderate high moderate moderate high Alianza moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate Atipuluan low high low low high Bacong-Montilla low high low low high Busay moderate high moderate moderate high Calumangan moderate high moderate moderate high Caridad low moderate low low moderate Dulao low moderate low low moderate Jorge L. Araneta (Ma- low high low low high Ao Central) Ma-Ao Barrio low moderate low low moderate Malingin moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 35 A1B Scenario A2 Scenario Barangay/ Municipality Observed Validated 2020 2050 2020 2050

Napoles low high low low high Pacol moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate Taloc low moderate low low moderate CADIZ CITY

Caduha-An low low moderate low low moderate Celestino Villacin low low low low low low Magsaysay low low low low low low V. F. Gustilo low low moderate low low moderate CALATRAVA

Ani-E low low moderate low low moderate Dolis low low moderate low low moderate Laga-An low low moderate low low moderate Lalong low low moderate low low moderate Ma-Aslob moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate Marcelo moderate low low moderate moderate low Menchaca low low low low low low Minapasuk moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate CANLAON CITY

Bayog low low low low low low Ninoy Aquino low low moderate low low moderate Pula moderate moderate low moderate moderate low CITY of TALISAY

Cabatangan low low low low low low Katilingban low low low low low low San Fernando low low low low low low CITY of VICTORIAS Barangay XI (Gawahon) low low low low low low ENRIQUE B. MAGALONA

Canlusong low low low low low low San Isidro moderate low moderate low low moderate LA CARLOTA CITY

Ara-Al low low moderate low low moderate Yubo low low low low low low LA CASTELLANA

Biaknabato low low low low low low Cabagnaan low low moderate low low moderate Mansalanao moderate moderate low moderate moderate low Masulog low low moderate low low moderate Sag-Ang moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate

36 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS A1B Scenario A2 Scenario Barangay/ Municipality Observed Validated 2020 2050 2020 2050 MURCIA Abo-Abo low low moderate low low moderate Alegria low low moderate low low moderate Amayco moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate Blumentritt low low moderate low low moderate Buenavista low low moderate low low moderate Caliban moderate low moderate moderate moderate moderate Canlandog low low moderate low low moderate Cansilayan low low moderate low low moderate Damsite low moderate high low low high Forest Area low low low low low low Iglau-An low low moderate low low moderate Lopez Jaena low low moderate low low moderate Minoyan moderate low moderate moderate moderate moderate Pandanon* moderate low low moderate moderate low Salvacion moderate low moderate moderate moderate moderate San Miguel low low moderate low low moderate Santa Cruz low low moderate low low moderate Santa Rosa low low moderate low low moderate Talotog low low moderate low low moderate Zone I low low low low low low Zone II low low low low low low Zone III low low low low low low Zone IV low low low low low low Zone V low low low low low low PULUPANDAN Culo high high high high high high Ubay high high high high high high SAGAY CITY Colonia Divina low low low low low low Puey low low moderate low low moderate SALVADOR BENEDICTO Bago (Lalung) low low moderate low low moderate Bagong Silang low low moderate low low moderate (Marcelo) Bunga low low low low low low Igmaya-An moderate moderate low moderate moderate low Kumaliskis low low low low low low Pinowayan moderate moderate low moderate moderate low (Prosperidad) SAN CARLOS CITY

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 37 A1B Scenario A2 Scenario Barangay/ Municipality Observed Validated 2020 2050 2020 2050

Bagonbon low low moderate low low moderate Buluangan low low moderate low low moderate Codcod low low low low low low Nataban low low moderate low low moderate Palampas moderate moderate low moderate moderate low Prosperidad low low low low low low Quezon low low low low low low Rizal moderate moderate low moderate moderate low SILAY CITY Kapitan Ramon moderate moderate low moderate moderate low Guimbalaon low low low low low low Patag low low low low low low VALLEHERMOSO Bairan low - low low low low Maglahos low - low low low low

38 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS

Philippine Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience (B+WISER) Program

Figure 14. Drought Vulnerability based on observed scenario under the CNCM3 model (A1B scenario) in the Bago Watershed and its natural parks

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 39

Philippine Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience (B+WISER) Program

Figure 15. Drought Vulnerability (2020s period) based on CNCM3 model (A1B scenario) in the Bago Watershed and its natural parks

40 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS

Philippine Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience (B+WISER) Program

Figure 16. Drought Vulnerability (2050s period) based on CNCM3 model (A1B scenario) in the Bago Watershed and its natural parks

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 41

Philippine Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience (B+WISER) Program

Figure 17. Drought Vulnerability (2020s period) based on CNCM3 model (A2 scenario) in the Bago Watershed and its natural parks

42 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS

Philippine Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience (B+WISER) Program

Figure 18. Drought Vulnerability (2050s period) based on CNCM3 model (A2 scenario) in the Bago Watershed and its natural parks

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 43 Rain-Induced Landslide Hazard Assessment

Landslide is essentially described as the downward movement of a relatively dry mass of earth and rock. It is a process where soil particles detached, transported and deposited from one place to another. It is usually triggered by excessive rainfall or the occurrence of an earthquake strong enough to cause instability in the underlying rock layer. The rain-induced landslide hazard maps for the Bago Watershed were assessed and generated based on physical conditions, vegetated factors, and climate change influences given the CNCM3 model and scenarios.

Table 16 shows the distribution of rain-induced landslide affected areas in different periods. It was estimated that high vulnerable landslide areas within the watershed range from, 8,000 – 14,000 ha for the Mt. Kanlaon Natural Park, and 21,000 – 32,000 ha for the Northern Negros Natural Park. Changes of highly vulnerable areas appeared significant to the forest landscape during the observed, 2020s and 2050s periods (Figures 19 - 23). This can primarily be associated with the fluctuating pattern and trend of monthly rainfalls during the months of August to October except in 2050s A2 scenario. The 2050s period in A2 scenario predicts a decline of rainfall for the duration of June to August.

Portions of twenty-two (22) barangays are found as highly vulnerable areas (Table 17). Most of these areas are apparent in the fragmented mountainous portions of Mt. Kanlaon and Northern Negros mountain range (Plate Nos. 4 and 5). The landslide-prone areas are apparent in 3 barangays of Cadiz City (Cadula-An, Celestino Villacin, and V.F. Gustillo), 2 barangays of Calatrava (Laga-An and Lalong), 1 barangay of Canlaon City (Pula), 2 barangays of Talisay City (Cabatangan and San Fernando), 1 barangay of La Carlota City (Yubo), 5 barangays of La Castellana (Biaknabato, Cabagnaan, Mansalanao, Masulong, and Sag-Ang), 2 barangays of Murcia (Forest area and Minoyan), 6 barangays of Salvador Benedicto (Bago, Bagong Silang, Bunga, Igmaya-An, Kumaliskis, and Pinowayan), and 3 barangays of San Carlos City (Codcod, Prosperidad, and Quezon).

Plate 4. Identified landslide vulnerable areas in Mt. Kanlaon Natural Park, (Salvador Benedicto, Negros Occidental, March 3, 2015)

44 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS

Plate 5. Identified landslide vulnerable areas in Northern Negros Natural Park (Cadiz City, Negros Occidental, April 15, 2015)

As shown in the landslide hazard maps (Figures 20 to 24), the susceptibility was described in three (3) categories of low, medium and high. Areas that are assessed prone to geologic hazard have high exposure to impact of extreme climate variability. A large areas of the entire watershed are highly erodible especially those with steep slope and high elevation. This can be seen in mountain ranges at the foot slopes of Mt. Kanlaon and Northern Negros.

In upland areas, among the reported environmental issues, denudation of forest cover contributes significantly to landslides and loss of soil productivity. Extensive upland agriculture and kaingin farming are often practiced in barangay Pula, Murcia as well as in other areas (Plate No. 6). Further, the over-extraction of forest resources resulted to denudation of the upland areas. These conditions are evident along the national road of Pio Duran where hills and mountains are plainly deforested. In essence, with the soil exposed, surficial erosion ensues, and eventually bringing down fertile deposits until the land loss its productivity. This condition contributes to landslides, and ultimately siltation of rivers and flashflood.

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 45 Plate 6. Upland agriculture and kaingin farming are often practiced in barangay Pula, Murcia (March 4, 2015)

Generally, signs and indices of past landslides in steeper parts of the watershed are still present. It is thought that many of these are caused by land degradation and erosion rather than seismic induced. It has been observed that landslides are frequently experienced in the northern, eastern and southern parts of the watershed. Recent landslides monitored within the watershed happened mostly in a large portion of Murcia and San Carlos City where open areas dominate the lower portion of the park with denuded riverbanks. Excessive rains were caused of landslides especially in areas where sparse vegetation exists. Other portions of agricultural lands are affected due to slopes of agricultural based activities.

In Northern Negros Natural Park, the stakeholders perceived that it faces a lot of pressing issues and concerns on the increasing number of illegal dwellers. The continued “kaingin” activity inside the protected area, and the continued illegal logging lead to the loss of biodiversity, aggravated soil fertility, soil erosion, and landslide in the forestlands.

46 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS

Table 16. Landslide vulnerability and area coverage of the Bago Watershed and its natural

Bago Watershed A1B A2 Vulnerability Observed 2020 2050 2020 2050 Low 27,127 27,127 27,127 23,727 27,127 Moderate 35,066 35,066 35,066 30,777 35,066 High 16,026 16,026 16,026 23,714 16,026 Total 78,218 78,218 78,218 78,218 78,218 Mt. Kanlaon Natural Park A1B A2 Vulnerability Observed 2020 2050 2020 2050 Low 435 435 435 127 435 Moderate 15,084 15,084 15,084 10,278 15,084 High 8,581 8,581 8,581 13,695 8,581 Total 24,100 24,100 24,100 24,100 24,100 Northern Negros Natural Park A1B A2 Vulnerability Observed 2020 2050 2020 2050 Low 4,512 4,512 4,512 1,594 4,512 Moderate 38,291 38,291 38,291 30,966 38,291 High 21,114 21,114 21,114 31,357 21,114 Total 63,917 63,917 63,917 63,917 63,917

Table 17. Landslide Vulnerability by barangay in Bago Watershed, Northern Negros

A1B Scenario A2 Scenario Barangay/ Municipality Observed Validated 2020 2050 2020 2050 BAGO CITY Abuanan low low low low low low Alianza low low low low low low Atipuluan low low low low low low Bacong-Montilla low low low low low low Busay low low low low low low Calumangan low low low low low low Caridad low low low low low low Dulao low low low low low low Jorge L. Araneta (Ma- low low low low low low Ao Central) Ma-Ao Barrio low low low low low low Malingin low low low low low low Napoles low low low low low low

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 47 A1B Scenario A2 Scenario Barangay/ Municipality Observed Validated 2020 2050 2020 2050 Pacol low low low low low low Taloc low low low low low low CADIZ CITY Caduha-An moderate high moderate high moderate moderate Celestino Villacin high high high high high high Magsaysay low low low low low low V. F. Gustilo high high high high high high CALATRAVA Ani-E moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate Dolis moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate Laga-An moderate moderate moderate high moderate moderate Lalong high high high high high high Ma-Aslob moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate Marcelo moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate Menchaca low low low moderate low low Minapasuk moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate CANLAON CITY Bayog moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate Ninoy Aquino moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate Pula moderate high moderate high moderate moderate TALISAY CITY Cabatangan moderate moderate moderate high moderate moderate Katilingban low low low low low low San Fernando high moderate high high high high VICTORIAS CITY Barangay XI (Gawahon) moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate ENRIQUE B. MAGALONA Canlusong moderate low moderate moderate moderate moderate San Isidro low low low low low low LA CARLOTA CITY Ara-Al moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate Yubo high high high high high high LA CASTELLANA Biaknabato moderate high moderate high moderate moderate Cabagnaan moderate high moderate high moderate moderate Mansalanao moderate high moderate high moderate moderate Masulog moderate high moderate moderate moderate moderate Sag-Ang moderate high moderate moderate moderate moderate

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A1B Scenario A2 Scenario Barangay/ Municipality Observed Validated 2020 2050 2020 2050 MURCIA Abo-Abo low low low low low low Alegria low moderate low moderate low low Amayco moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate Blumentritt low moderate low moderate low low Buenavista moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate Caliban low low low low low low Canlandog low low low low low low Cansilayan low low low low low low Damsite low low low low low low Forest Area high high high high high high Iglau-An low low low low low low Lopez Jaena low low low low low low Minoyan moderate high moderate high moderate moderate Pandanon* moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate Salvacion low low low low low low San Miguel low low low low low low Santa Cruz low low low low low low Santa Rosa low low low low low low Talotog low low low low low low Zone I low low low low low low Zone II low low low low low low Zone III low low low low low low Zone IV low low low low low low Zone V low low low low low low PULUPANDAN Culo low low low low low low Ubay low low low low low low SAGAY CITY Colonia Divina low low low low low low Puey moderate low moderate moderate moderate moderate SALVADOR BENEDICTO Bago (Lalung) moderate high moderate high moderate moderate Bagong Silang moderate high moderate high moderate moderate (Marcelo) Bunga moderate high moderate moderate moderate moderate Igmaya-An high high high high high high Kumaliskis high high high high high high Pinowayan high high high high high high (Prosperidad)

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 49 A1B Scenario A2 Scenario Barangay/ Municipality Observed Validated 2020 2050 2020 2050 SAN CARLOS CITY Bagonbon low low low moderate low low Buluangan moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate Codcod high high high high high high Nataban moderate moderate moderate high moderate moderate Palampas low low low moderate low low Prosperidad high high high high high high Quezon high high high high high high Rizal low low low low low low SILAY CITY Kapitan Ramon low low low moderate low low Guimbalaon moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate moderate Patag low low low moderate low low VALLEHERMOSO Bairan low - low low low low Maglahos low - low low low low Note* with dispute

50 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS

Philippine Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience (B+WISER) Program

Figure 19. Landslide vulnerability based on observed scenario under the CNCM3 model in the Bago Watershed, Northern Negros

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 51

Philippine Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience (B+WISER) Program

Figure 20. Landslide vulnerability (2020s period) based on CNCM3 model (A1B scenario) in the Bago Watershed, Northern Negros

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Philippine Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience (B+WISER) Program

Figure 21. Landslide vulnerability (2050s period) based on CNCM3 model (A1B scenario) in the Bago Watershed, Northern Negros

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 53

Philippine Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience (B+WISER) Program

Figure 22. Landslide vulnerability (2020s period) based on CNCM3 model (A2 scenario) in the Bago Watershed, Northern Negros

54 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS

Philippine Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience (B+WISER) Program

Figure 23. Landslide vulnerability (2050s period) based on CNCM3 model (A2 scenario) in the Bago Watershed, Northern Negros

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 55 LAND CAPABILITY CLASSIFICATION

Land capability classification was derived based on soil erosion index and other criteria. Five (5) major zones were identified for the area. The classification and management prescriptions are intended to provide a scientific basis for allocating the lands to various uses.

Zoning is not meant to be prescriptive in any absolute sense. Basically, the land capability zoning is an ideal physical framework for allocating the lands resources. The primary goal is to sustain the long-term productivity of the land and promote the sustainability of biodiversity, soil and water resources, and the delivery of key services of ecosystems in and out of the area. The decision on how the lands are ultimately used still rests with the managers, decision makers, and other stakeholders.

Protection Areas

Protection areas are designated mainly for the conservation of biodiversity; conservation of soil and water; protection of unique habitats, vegetation, geologic formation and landscape, and areas of sociocultural values; and minimization of climate-related and other natural risks and hazards associated with soil erosion, landslides and floods.

Table 18 presents the land capability classification, management prescriptions, area coverage, and its existing hazards. About 109,000 ha of the entire watershed and its natural parks are classified as protection areas (Figure 24). As shown in Table 19, a large portion of this area belongs to annual crop (48,254 ha), open forest (21,637 ha), closed forest (16,173 ha), and shrubs (16,929 ha). The land cover with annual crops is mostly found in the southern part of the watershed. The open and closed forest are seen in the Mt. Kanlaon northern part and the Northern Negros in southern portion.

Key Biodiversity Areas

The remaining natural forests or closed forest in the area are by law and logic areas that need to be protected at all costs (Plate No. 7). About 18,953 ha of the Northern Negros and 14,909 ha of the Mt. Kanlaon are the natural forests left in the area. Only sensible option is to make sure that these forests are protected ecologically or environmentally and socio-culturally. However, these areas are identified as vulnerable to landslide.

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Plate 7. Remaining natural forests or closed forest as key biodiversity areas (Sagay, Negros Occidental, April 15, 2015)

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 57 Stream Buffer Areas

The banks of rivers and streams and the shores of the seas throughout their entire length and within a zone of 3 m in urban areas, 20 m in agricultural areas and 40 m in forest areas, along their margins, are subject to easement of public use in the interest of recreation, navigation, float age, fishing and salvage. This provision is mandated by law (PD 705, Section 17) and pursuant to the provisions of the Water Code. These areas are essential buffers for the rivers that serve as filters to incoming sediments and other pollutants. These buffers that are supposed to be covered with vegetation are also excellent protection of the streamflow against excessive solar exposure to keep water temperature at ideal level. Stream buffer areas that are currently covered with grassland (119 ha), annual crop (1,250 ha), and shrubs (324 ha) or otherwise have inadequate vegetation must be targeted for re-vegetation using perennial forest species. Planting of bamboo and ferns is also potentially beneficial in these areas, as these plants are known to be good soil cover and at the same time provide income without the need to clear the area.

In particular, bamboo is a versatile crop that grows well in practically any kind of soil condition (Plate No. 8). It is both an excellent production crop that yields fair income for its growers. At the same time, it is an excellent soil cover crop that enhances the ability of the soil to resist erosion. It has proven its ability to stabilize slopes stream banks and other erosion prone areas. It is known to grow well in both dry and wet environment. Hence, bamboo plantations can be developed in the protection zone.

Plate 8. Planted bamboo along the Bago River in Northern Negros (March 3, 2015)

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Production Areas

As previously mentioned, the production zone is made up of lands that are suited for intensive land uses such as farming, multiple use forestry and other uses requiring disturbance of the soil and other resources found in the area. This zone also includes areas that are used for settlement and urbanization and other built up purposes. Almost 21,000 ha of the whole area are classified as production areas. About 2,700 ha of the production areas are classified for an unlimited production zone, 10,500 ha for the multiple use zone, and 8,600 for the limited production zone.

Multiple Use Zone

In general, the multiple use system that is envisioned for the area is the multi-storey system. This will provide income generation opportunities for the farmers and at the same time enhance the ability of the area to remain ecologically stable. Potentially, the areas that can be devoted for multiple use development include areas that are currently having annual crop (9,400 ha), shrubs (600 ha), and perennial crop (430 ha).

Limited Production Zone

Limited production zone can be allocated as agricultural areas that are classified within the alienable and disposable lands. About 8,800 ha can be allocated to multi-storey timber and fruit tree plantations. However, these areas are fragmented within the municipalities. Currently, areas with annual crop (7,000 ha), perennial crop (480 ha), and shrubs (890 ha) are devoted for agriculture and plantation development.

Recognizing that farming and animal raising are still a much preferred livelihood activity, this zone will not attempt to deliberately convert the use of areas into other uses. However, options can be presented to the farmers to convert their annual crop farms to other equally if not more rewarding land uses like agroforestry or multiple use system.

Plantation development for production purposes and for rehabilitation of degraded land has a great impact in the area. Forest rehabilitation refers to the re-establishment of the productivity of some, but not necessarily all, of the plant and animal species originally present in the area. For ecological or economic reasons, the multi-storey system with a combination of various fruit trees may improve the structure, productivity and species diversity of the area.

Unlimited Production Zone

Areas for settlement, commercial and industrial purposes consist mostly of areas that are currently used for the same purposes. As the community population continuously grows, the settlement and community areas may expand only to production areas immediately adjacent to the existing areas. By no means, the areas for settlement and community purposes should be permitted to extend in multiple use or even in the protection areas as this will likely compromise the ecological and environmental integrity of the watershed. This should be particularly and strictly observed in barangay Pula, Murcia as this part is more vulnerable to the disruptive nature of activities associated with upland farming, settlement and community development.

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 59 Table 18. The prescribed land capability classification and its hazard limitations and management prescriptions

Hazard Class Land Classification Management Prescriptions Area (ha) Considerations 1 PROTECTION AREAS ( 111,466 ha) 83% Strict protection, limited collection 109,247 Highly vulnerable to of ornamental plants, herbs, vines, landslide fruits and other non-timber 1A Strict Protection Zone products may be allowed; Planting of endemic species (i.e. White lauan) Permanent crops (fruit trees, ferns, 2,219 Highly vulnerable to bamboo), harvesting of fruits and flooding 1B Protection Buffer Zone bamboo shoots and culms will be allowed but no harvesting of trees will be allowed Northern Negros Natural Park 18,953 Highly vulnerable to Key Biodiversity Areas 1C landslide Zone Mt. Kanlaon Natural Park 14,909 2 PRODUCTION AREAS (21,926 ha) 17% Planting of annual and perennial Highly vulnerable to Unlimited Production crops such as sweet potato, corn, flooding Zone banana, sugarcane, rice, yum, Highly vulnerable to 2A Grasslands and 2714 eggplant, carrots, cabbage and drought brushlands; built up and other high value crops; cultivated areas Settlement can be allowed Multi-storey timber (Kakauate) and Highly vulnerable to Multiple Use Zone fruit tree plantations (Cacao, flooding Grasslands and 2B Jackfruit, Mango), agroforestry can 10,587 Highly vulnerable to brushlands; built up and be allowed with suitable soil and drought cultivated areas water conservation measures Limited Production Multi-storey timber, fruit tree Zone plantations, and coconut 2C Grasslands and plantations are suitable in this area 8,625 brushlands; built up and cultivated areas

60 | VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS

Philippine Biodiversity and Watersheds Improved for Stronger Economy and Ecosystem Resilience (B+WISER) Program

Figure 24. Prescribed land capability classification in the Bago Watershed and its natural parks

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 61 Table 19. Area distribution of the land capability classification by land cover

Protection areas Production areas Limited Land Cover Protection Stream Unlimited Multiple Use Total Production zone Buffer Zone Production Zone Zone Shrubs 16,929 324 126 609 889 18,877 Grassland 2,303 119 39 114 89 2,664 Annual Crop 48,254 1,250 2,476 9,408 7,070 68,459 Perennial Crop 5,495 232 82 435 481 6,725 Built-up 59 3 7 46 30 145 Inland Water 109 100 8 52 38 307 Closed Forest 16,173 158 14 57 73 16,475 Open Forest 21,637 48 31 135 163 22,013 Wooded Grassland 1,062 20 5 22 38 1,147 Open/Barren 423 32 0 2 5 462 Fishpond 0 - 7 16 2 26 Total 112,445 2,285 2,794 10,897 8,878 137,299

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CONCLUSION

Based on the results of the vulnerability assessment, the following conclusions are made:

 Flooding in low-lying areas and stream channels remains to be the topmost hazard that some barangays are exposed. About ten (10) barangays within the Bago Watershed were predicted as highly vulnerable to flooding in 2020s period under the A2 scenario. Heavy to torrential rainfall events associated by tropical storms and typhoons, high tides, forest degradation, and siltation are described to be mainly causing this incidence.

 Drought would take place from January to April and a possibility to extend up to June under the observed and future scenarios. A total of 10 barangays around the Northern Negros Natural Park and Mt. Kanloan Natural Park are found highly vulnerable to drought.

 About 22 barangays are categorically ranked as highly vulnerable to rain-induced landslide during the observed and future periods except for the A2 scenario in 2050s period wherein there would be a decline of rainfall amount. Extreme rainfall events resulting to rain-induced landslide will primarily affect the mountain ranges and steep slopes of Mt. Kanloan and Northern Negros. In upland areas, extensive agriculture and kaingin farming are evidently practiced in barangay Pula, Murcia which contributes significantly to landslides and loss of soil productivity.

 Based on land capability classification, about 83% of the Bago Watershed and its natural parks are estimated to be likely suitable as protection areas which include the classification of strict protection, stream buffer, and key biodiversity areas.

As agreed upon by the different stakeholders and the B+WISER team, results of the assessment including shape files will be shared to them to ensure that results will be used by the targeted clientele.

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 63 RECOMMENDATION

Results of the vulnerability assessment will serve as inputs to the management plans of Bago watershed, Northern Negros Natural Park and Mt Kanlaon Natural Park as well as in the comprehensive land use plans of the different LGUs inside the watershed and PAs. Mainstreaming climate change considerations such as results of the vulnerability assessment will enable the managers and LGUs to design mitigation and adaptation strategies that will make the ecosystems and its components to become resilient to the adverse impacts of climate change. Vulnerability assessment is a critical part of any planning exercise since climate change cuts across a wide array of various sectors.

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REFERENCES

CLUP-Bago City. _____. Comprehensive Land Use Plan of the Bago City, Negros Occidental.

CLUP-Murcia. 2001-2010. Comprehensive Land Use Plan of the Municipality of Murcia. Negros Occidental.

CLUP-San Carlos City. 2014. Comprehensive Land Use Plan of the San Carlos City. Negros Occidental.

CLUP-Salvador Benedicto. 2014 - 2023. Comprehensive Land Use Plan of the Salvador Benedicto. Negros Occidental.

Combalicer, E.A. 2000. Application of Soil Erosion Potentials in the Lower Magat Watershed, Philippines. MS Thesis. UPLB, College, Laguna.

Cruz, R. V. O., Lasco, R. D., Pulhin, J. M., Pulhin, F. B., and Garcia, K. B. 2005. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation: Water Resources of Pantabangan- Carranglan Watershed. Environmental Forestry Programme. College of Forestry and Natural Resources. University of the Philippines Los Baños. Laguna. Philippines. Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC), AIACC-AS21 Working Paper_N09, a joint project of START, the Third World Academy of Sciences, and the UN Environment Programme.

Cruz, R.V.O. 1990 Land-use suitability assessment and land capability classification in Ibulao Watershed, Philippines. Ph.D. Dissertation. Univ. of Arizona, USA. 180p.

David, W.P. 1988. Soil and water conservation planning – policy issues and recommendations. Paper presented at the workshop on upland resource policy program sponsored by PIDS, DENR, UPLB and IDRC. March 14, 1988. Quezon City.

David, W.P. and C.U. Collado, Jr. 1987. An assessment of land and water resources: present management practices and problems, and future management plans and programs for the Magat watershed. Upland Resources Policy Program. Tech. Report No. 2. Phil. Inst. for Dev. Studies, Makati.

De Asis, A. 1998. A GIS-aided soil erosion potential based solution to UP Land Grant allocation problem. MS Thesis. UPLB, Coll., Lag., Phil. 86p.

DENR-R4. 2013. Watershed Characterization and Vulnerability Assessment of the San Juan River Watershed. Volume 1. Calamba City. 156p.

EDC. 2012. EDC Water Balance Assessment Report. Ortigas, Manila. 59p.

Irigaray, C., Fernandez, T., El Hamdouni, R., and Chacon, J., 2007. Evaluation and validation of landslide-susceptibility maps obtained by a GIS matrix method: examples from the Betic Cordillera (southern Spain), Nat. Hazards, 41, 61–79.

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 65 Jimenez-Pelvarez, J., Irigaray, C., El Hamdouni, R., and Chacon, J., 2009. Building models for automatic landslide-susceptibility analysis, mapping and validation in ArcGIS, Nat. Hazards, 50, 571– 590.

Lasco, R. D., K. G. MacDicken, F. B. Pulhin, I. Q. Guillermo, R. F, Sales and R.V. O. Cruz. 2006. Carbon stocks assessment of a selectively logged dipterocarp forest and wood processing mill.

NIA. 2009. Bago Watershed Management Plan (BWMP). Bago River Irrigation System Rehabilitation and Improvement Project, Region VI. Bago City, Negros Occidental. 99p.

Plaster, E.J. 2003. Soil Science and Management. 4th Ed. NY: Clifton Park.

Salas-Mélia D., Chauvin, F., Déqué, M., Douville, H., Guérémy, J. F., Marquet, P., Planton, S., Royer, J. F., and Tyteca, S. 2005. Description and validation of the CNRM-CM3 global coupled model, CNRM Working Note 103, 36 pp.

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ANNEX A. B+WISER DIRECTORY

DENR PROGRAM STEERING COMMITTEE

FOR.RICARDO L. CALDERON, CESO III Chair Director, Forest Management Bureau (FMB) Department of Environment and Natural Resources FMB Bldg., Visayas Avenue, Diliman 1100 Quezon City Phone: 928-9313/927-4788; Fax: 920-0374 Email address: [email protected]

MS. LOURDES G. FERRER Co-Chair Director for Program Implementation Office of the Undersecretary for Field Operations (OUFO) Department of Environment and Natural Resources Visayas Avenue, Diliman 1100 Quezon City Phone: 928-4969; Fax: 929-4969 Email address: [email protected]

DR. THERESA MUNDITA S. LIM Member Director, Protected Areas and Wildlife Bureau (PAWB) Department of Environment and Natural Resources Ninoy Aquino Parks and Wildlife Center Diliman, 1100 Quezon City Phone: 924-6031 to 35 local 203 & 204; Fax: 920-4417 Email address: [email protected]

ENGR. EDWIN G. DOMINGO Member Overall Director, Foreign-Assisted and Special Projects Office (FASPO) Department of Environment and Natural Resources Visayas Avenue, Diliman 1100 Quezon City Phone: 925-2344; Fax: 926-8065 Email address: [email protected]

DR. HENRY A. ADORNADO Member Director, Ecosystems Research and Development Bureau (ERDB) Department of Environment and Natural Resources University of the Philippines at Los Baños College, Laguna Phone: (049) 536-3628; Fax: (049) 536-2850 Email address: [email protected]

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 67 FOR. ERIBERTO C. ARGETE, CESO IV Member Director, Planning and Policy Studies Office (PPSO) Department of Environment and Natural Resources Visayas Avenue, Diliman 1100 Quezon City Phone: 929-6626 local 2043, 925-1184 Email address: [email protected]

ENGR. LEO L. JASARENO Member Director, Mines and Geo-Sciences Bureau (MGB) Department of Environment and Natural Resources MGB Compound North Avenue, Diliman Quezon City Phone: 920-9120; 920-9130; Fax 920-1635 Email address: [email protected]

DR. RIJALDIA N. SANTOS Member Director, Resource Data Analysis Branch National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA) Lawton Avenue, Fort Andres Bonifacio 1638 Taguig City Phone: 884-2857 / 816-1033 Email address: [email protected]

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TECHNICAL WORKING GROUP

FOR.MAYUMI MA. QUINTOS-NATIVIDAD OIC, Assistant Director Forest Management Bureau (FMB) Department of Environment and Natural Resources FMB Bldg., Diliman, 1100 Quezon City Phone: 927-4784; 928-2778; TeleFax: 920-8650 Email address: [email protected]

FOR.EDNA D. NUESTRO Chief, Planning and Project Management Services Division Forest Management Bureau (FMB) Department of Environment and Natural Resources FMB Bldg., Diliman, 1100 Quezon City Phone: 927-6217; Telefax: 920-0368 Email address: [email protected]

FOR.REMEDIOS T. EVANGELISTA Chief, Reforestation Division Forest Management Bureau (FMB) Department of Environment and Natural Resources FMB Bldg., Diliman, 1100 Quezon City TeleFax: 928-2891 Email address: [email protected]

FOR.NORMA M. MOLINYAWE Chief, Biodiversity Management Division Protected Areas and Wildlife Bureau (PAWB) Department of Environment and Natural Resources Ninoy Aquino Parks and Wildlife Center Diliman, 1100 Quezon City Phone: 924-6031 to 35 local 232; TeleFax: 925-8947 Email: [email protected], [email protected]

FOR. ARMIDA P. ANDRES Officer-in-charge, Planning Staff Protected Areas and Wildlife Bureau (PAWB) Department of Environment and Natural Resources Ninoy Aquino Parks and Wildlife Center Diliman, 1100 Quezon City Phone: 924-6031 to 35 local 210; TeleFax: 920-4486 Email: [email protected]

FOR. MARLYNN M. MENDOZA Chief, Protected Area Community Management Division Protected Areas and Wildlife Bureau (PAWB) Department of Environment and Natural Resources Ninoy Aquino Parks and Wildlife Center Diliman, 1100 Quezon City Phone: 924-6031 to 35 local 226; TeleFax: 925-8950 Email: [email protected]

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 69 DR. CARMELITA VILLAMOR Ecosystems Research and Development Bureau (ERDB) Department of Environment and Natural Resources University of the Philippines at Los Baños College, Laguna Phone: (049) 536-2229, TeleFax: 536-7746 Email address: [email protected]

FOR. MONINA M. CUNANAN Chief, Project Development and Evaluation Division Planning and Policy Studies Office (PPSO) Department of Environment and Natural Resources Visayas Avenue, Diliman 1100 Quezon City Phone: 929-6626 local 2042, 928-9737 Email address: [email protected]

MS. LLARINA MOJICA OIC, Policy Studies Division Planning and Policy Studies Office (PPSO) Department of Environment and Natural Resources Visayas Avenue, Diliman 1100 Quezon City Phone: 929-6626 local 2046, TeleFax: 925-1183 Email address: [email protected]

Ms. SOLITA CASTRO Senior Remote Sensing Technologist National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA) Lawton Avenue, Fort Andres Bonifacio 1638 Taguig City Phone: 810-4831 loc. 741 / 810-2891 / 884-2867 Email address: [email protected]

MR. CONRAD BRAVANTE OIC-Chief, Project Monitoring Division Foreign-Assisted and Special Projects Service Department of Environment and Natural Resources Visayas Avenue, Diliman 1100 Quezon City Phone: 929-6626 local 2118, TeleFax: 927-6755 Email address: [email protected]

MS. MOONYEEN MANRIQUE Project Officer, Project Monitoring Division Foreign-Assisted and Special Projects Service Department of Environment and Natural Resources Visayas Avenue, Diliman 1100 Quezon City TeleFax: 928-0028 Email address: [email protected]

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UNITED STATES AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (USAID)

Mr. JEREMY GUSTAFSON Director Office of Environment, Energy, and Climate Change (OEECC) U.S. Agency for International Development Annex 2 Building, U.S. Embassy 1201 Roxas Boulevard 1000 Ermita, Manila, Philippines (632) 301-2129; Fax: (632) 301-6213 Email: [email protected]

Mr. JOSEPH FOLTZ Deputy Director Office of Environment, Energy, and Climate Change (OEECC) U.S. Agency for International Development Annex 2 Building, U.S. Embassy 1201 Roxas Boulevard 1000 Ermita, Manila, Philippines Phone: (632) 301-4823; Fax: (632) 301-6213 Email: [email protected]

Mr. OLIVER O. AGONCILLO Natural Resources Policy Advisor Office of Environment, Energy, and Climate Change (OEECC) U.S. Agency for International Development Annex 2 Building, U.S. Embassy 1201 Roxas Boulevard 1000 Ermita, Manila, Philippines Phone: (632) 301-4828; (632) 301-6000 local 4828; Fax: (632) 301-6213 Email: [email protected]

Mr. RANDY JOHN N. VINLUAN Sustainable Landscape Specialist Office of Environment, Energy, and Climate Change (OEECC) U.S. Agency for International Development Annex 2 Building, U.S. Embassy 1201 Roxas Boulevard 1000 Ermita, Manila, Philippines Phone: (632) 301-4826; (632) 301-6000 local 4826; Fax: (632) 301-6213 Email: [email protected]

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 71 B+WISER PROGRAM KEY STAFF

Staff Designation E-mail Address

Roberto B. Rapera Acting Chief of Party [email protected] Ferdinand S. Esguerra* Communications Specialist [email protected] Rojessa T. Saceda Communication Specialist [email protected] Rodolfo B. Santos, Jr. M&E Specialist [email protected] Nena O. Espiritu Sustainable Finance Specialist [email protected] Maria Zita B. Toribio Policy & Governance Specialist [email protected] Guillermo A. Mendoza REDD+/MRV Specialist [email protected] Elena Chiong-Javier Gender & Inclusion Specialist [email protected] Felix Gaschick Forestry & Biodiversity Specialist [email protected] Wilman C. Pollisco Legal & ADR Specialist [email protected] Siegfried L. Batucan* Mapping & GIS Specialist [email protected] Raul M. Caceres* Social Marketing & BCC Consultant [email protected] Calixto E. Yao Coastal Forest Ecosystem Specialist [email protected] Robert R. Araño Field Manager – NSMNP rarañ[email protected] Roldan R. Dugay Field Manager – UMRBPL-KWFR [email protected] Geoffrey E. Sa-ong Field Manager – QAW [email protected] Anselmo P. Cabrera Field Manager – BRWNP [email protected] Rodolfo V. Aragon Field Manager – MKRNP [email protected] Gregory Benjamin M. Luz Field Manager – MANP [email protected] Sarah M. Simmons Operations Manager [email protected] Susan R. Elizondo Procurement/SAF Manager [email protected] Catherine C. Pollisco Finance Manager [email protected] Nicanor P. Gonzalo Senior Accountant [email protected] Eugene C. Bennagen Technical Activity Manager [email protected] Ina Karissa D. Tobias PCU Coordinator [email protected] Jay Lowell H. Payuyo IT/MIS Specialist [email protected] Romero Y. Inamac Publications Associate [email protected] Leo Rex C. Cayaban Senior Program Associate [email protected] Ramil S. Alcala Program Associate [email protected] John Kevin D.G. Benico Program Associate [email protected] Desiree A. Donceras Program Associate [email protected] Joyce Lyn S. Molina Program Associate [email protected] Kent C. Tangcalagan Program Associate for IPs & Social Media [email protected] Ana Georgina C. Ciriaco Program Development Associate [email protected]

SUBCONTRACTORS

FFI

Neil Aldrin D. Mallari Biodiversity and Ecology Specialist [email protected] Jose Don T. de Alban RS/GIS Specialist [email protected] Edmund Leo B. Rico Carbon Inventory & Assessment Specialist [email protected] Orlando Arciaga Community Development Specialist [email protected] Angelica Kristina Monzon RS/GIS Data Analysis Associate angelica.monzon@fauna-flora. Christian Supsup RS/GIS Data Analysis Associate [email protected] Rizza Karen A. Veridiano Forest Carbon & Inventory Assess. Assoc. [email protected] Nevong Puna Biodiv Assess. (BA) & Monitoring Assoc. [email protected] Jackie Lou Wenceslao BA & Monitoring Associate [email protected] Laila Pornel Community Development Associate [email protected]

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ICRAF

Rodel P. Lasco REDD+ and Agro-Forestry Specialist [email protected] Florencia B. Pulhin Climate Change & Forest Biodiversity Sp. [email protected] Bhen A. Aguihon Researcher [email protected]

HARIBON FOUNDATION*

Arlie Jo B. Endonila, Head, Training & Education Division

______* Short-term/part-time

CHEMONICS INTERNATIONAL INC. – B+WISER PROGRAM Unit 201, 2nd Floor, CTC Building 2232 Roxas Boulevard, Pasay City Trunk Line: +63 2 550-1012/15/16 Fax: +63 2 552-1696

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE BAGO WATERSHED AND ITS NATURAL PARKS | 73