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Potenziale, Maßnahmen Und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit Von Bioenergie

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Potenziale, Maßnahmen Und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit Von Bioenergie Schriftenreihe Nr. 106 Nr. Schriftenreihe Zu Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts steht die Welt vor riesigen Herausforderungen Karl M. ORTNER bei der Energieversorgung. Das Energiesystem, muss umgebaut werden, Hubert JANETSCHEK um die Ansprüche einer wachsenden Bevölkerung bei knapper werdenden Erika QUENDLER Ressourcen zu erfüllen und den Klimawandel positiv zu beeinfl ussen. Der Um- und Ausbau soll daher auf Basis von erneuerbaren Energieträgern erfolgen, die in Konkurrenz zu fossilen Energieträgern stehen und auf den freien Markt nur Die Zukunft der Energie: teilweise wettbewerbsfähig sind. Potenziale, Maßnahmen und Die vorliegende Studie zeigt auf, wie umfangreich und wettbewerbsfähig verschiedene Energiequellen und ihre Verwendung sind und welche Wettbewerbsfähigkeit von Bioenergie Erwartungen an sie geknüpft werden. Dabei geht es einerseits um technische Neuerungen und Fortschritte, Forschung und Entwicklung, die erneuerbare Energien rentabler machen sollen, andererseits um politische Maßnahmen, die ihnen zum Durchbruch verhelfen sollen. Die Zukunft der Energie: Potenziale, Maßnahmen und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit von Bioenergie Karl M. Ortner, Hubert Janetschek, Erika Quendler: SR BUNDESANSTALT für Agrarwirtschaft 106 BUNDESANSTALT für Agrarwirtschaft BUNDESANSTALT für Agrarwirtschaft Karl M. ORTNER Hubert JANETSCHEK, Erika QUENDLER Die Zukunft der Energie: Potenziale, Maßnahmen und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit von Bioenergie Wien, 2013 Inhalt Vorwort 9 1 Einleitung 11 1.1 Problemstellung 11 1.2 Aufbau und Gliederung 18 1.3 Bestehende Studien 19 2 Das bestehende Energiesystem 25 2.1 Nachfrage nach und Versorgung mit Energie 25 2.1.1 Verbrauch weltweit 26 2.1.2 Erzeugung und Verbrauch in der EU 27 2.1.3 Energie in Österreich 31 2.2 Handel mit Energie 44 2.3 Energiepreise und -steuern 47 3 Energiequellen: Potenzial und Nutzung 49 3.1 Angebot an Energie, verfügbare Ressourcen 49 3.2 Kohle 50 3.3 Erdöl 52 3.4 Erdgas 57 3.5 Atomenergie 61 3.6 Erneuerbare Energie 63 3.6.1 Wasserkraft 65 3.6.2 Energie aus Biomasse 65 3.6.3 Forstwirtschaftliche Biomasse 73 3.6.4 Landwirtschaftliche Biomasse 81 3.6.5 Geothermie 105 3.6.6 Sonnenenergie 106 3.6.7 Gezeiten 112 3.6.8 Wind 112 4 Transformation, Verwertung und Verteilung 115 4.1 Produktionstechnik der Bioenergie 115 4.2 Wärme und Strom 119 4.2.1 Kraft-Wärme-Kopplung 119 4.2.2 Verteilernetze 120 4.2.3 Ökostrom 121 4.2.4 Rentabilität von Heizsystemen mit erneuerbarer Energie 122 4.3 Flüssige Treibstoffe 124 4.3.1 Herstellung und Verbreitung 124 4.3.2 Bioethanol 127 4.3.3 Biodiesel 131 4.3.4 Synthetische Treibstoffe 134 4.4 Gas 134 4.4.1 Biogas 134 4.4.2 Synthesegas und Wasserstoff 141 4.5 Holzkohle 143 4.6 CO2-Abscheidung und -Verwertung 144 4.6.1 CO2-Verwertung 145 4.6.2 CO2-Abscheidungskosten 146 5 Rahmenbedingungen und Ziele 149 5.1 Globale Herausforderungen für Energie aus Biomasse 149 5.1.1 Einleitung 149 5.1.2 Chancen 150 5.1.3 Emissionen 153 5.1.4 Wettbewerb im Sektor Biomasse 153 5.1.5 Nachhaltigkeit 155 5.1.6 Bodennutzung 158 5.1.7 Ernährungssicherheit und -souveränität 160 5.1.8 Bewertung 162 5.2 Internationale Rahmenbedingungen 163 5.2.1 Klimaschutzvereinbarungen 164 5.2.2 Kyoto-Protokoll 165 5.2.3 USA 167 5.3 Richt-Ziele der EU und Österreichs 168 5.3.1 Die Lissabon- und Barcelona-Strategie 168 5.3.2 Das Kyoto-Protokoll in der EU und in Österreich 169 5.3.3 Das Klima- und Energiepaket der EU bis 2020 172 5.3.4 Die Energiestrategie Österreich 175 5.3.5 Der Energiefahrplan 2050 der EU 179 5.3.6 Energieautarkie 181 6 Maßnahmen 185 6.1 Maßnahmengruppen 185 6.2 Maßnahmen für erneuerbare Energieträger 186 6.2.1 Ökostrom 186 6.2.2 Gas und Wärme 191 6.2.3 Biokraftstoffe 191 6.3 Subventionen, Steuern und Beimischungszwang 194 6.4 Emissionssteuern 195 6.5 Emissionsrechtehandel 196 6.5.1 Konzeption des ETS 196 6.5.2 Nationale Umsetzung und Wirkungen 199 6.6 Importbeschränkungen 201 6.7 Energiespar- und Effi zienzmaßnahmen 202 6.8 Technischer Fortschritt und Beratung 204 6.9 Anderes 204 6.9.1 Verteilungssysteme 204 6.9.2 Zertifi zierungssysteme 206 6.9.3 Nachhaltigkeitskriterien für Biokraftstoffe 206 6.9.4 Mobilitätsmanagement 209 6.10 Forschung für erneuerbare Energie 209 6.10.1 Erneuerbare Energiepotenziale Europas 209 6.10.2 Biomassepotenziale der Landwirtschaft 211 6.10.3 BIOENERGY 2020+ 220 6.10.4 Andere 221 7 Wirkungen von Fördermaßnahmen 223 7.1 Bewertungskriterien und -modelle 223 7.1.1 Kosten der Energiedienstleistungen 223 7.1.2 Wirtschaftlichkeit der Rohstoffproduktion 225 7.1.3 Vermeidungskosten von Treibhausgasen 229 7.1.4 Wirkungen eines Maßnahmensystems 232 7.2 Wirkungen einer steigenden Nachfrage nach Bioenergie 233 7.3 Wechselwirkungen zwischen Preisen 235 7.3.1 Preise von Agrarprodukten, Bioenergie und Rohöl 235 7.3.2 Einfl uss von Rohölpreisen und von energie- und umweltpolitisch motivierten Eingriffen 236 7.3.3 Preisvolatilität 238 7.3.4 Abhängigkeit von CO2-Preisen 239 7.3.5 Wirkungen auf öffentliche Interessen 240 8 Zusammenfassung 247 9 Hinweise 253 9.1 Literatur 253 9.2 Netzwerke und Kontaktadressen 285 9.3 Abkürzungen 287 9.4 Glossar 292 Vorwort SR 106 9 Vorwort Das Thema „Bioenergie“ wurde auf Wunsch der Zentralstelle (BMLFUW Abt. III 9) in das Ar- beitsprogramm 2008 der Bundesanstalt für Agrarwirtschaft als Projekt AWI/163/08 über- nommen. Dies geschah im Kontext des Vorschlages der Europäischen Kommission (EK 2005), wonach die Mitgliedsländer Biomasseaktionspläne erstellen sollten. Zu diesem Zweck wurde im BMLFUW eine Task Force eingerichtet. Eine Mitarbeit der Bundesanstalt für Agrarwirtschaft am nationalen Biomasseaktionsplan kam aber nicht zustande, weil vordringlich naturwis- senschaftlich-technische Fragestellungen zum Potenzial an heimischer Biomasse untersucht werden sollten. Als erstes Ergebnis dazu wurde eine Untersuchung der Energieagentur zum Biomasse-Aktionsplan vorgelegt (Austrian Energy Agency 2006). Ihr Schwergewicht lag auf der Frage, wie und an welchen Stellen Biomasse auf möglichst effi ziente Weise im österreichischen Energiesystem Verwendung fi nden könnte. Agrarökonomische Fragen wurden insofern berück- sichtigt, als geschätzt wurde, welche Mengen an unterschiedlichen Arten von Biomasse unter bestimmten Annahmen über die Flächenverwendung aus österreichischer land- und forstwirt- schaftlicher Produktion aufgebracht werden können. Die damit verbundenen Kosten wurden am Rande oder als Nebenbedingungen behandelt. Es folgten weitere Studien, in denen das Ressourcenpotenzial für die Aufbringung an heimischer Biomasse sowohl aus land- als auch aus forstwirtschaftlicher Produktion quantifi ziert wurde (z. B. Brainbows 2007). Die Ergebnisse der Vorstudien für den Biomasseaktionsplan wurden mit aktualisierten Datensätzen als Dokument „Erneuerbare Energie 2020 – Potenziale und Verwendung in Öster- reich“ in die Publikation der „Energiestrategie Österreich“ übernommen (BMLFUW 2009). Die Entwicklung der Energiestrategie Österreich (BMWFA und BMLFUW 2010) erforderte eine um- fangreiche politische und fachliche Koordination von neun Arbeitsgruppen, von denen 40 Ein- zeldokumente veröffentlichte wurden1. Des Weiteren muss noch auf eine wichtige Publikation des Klima- und Energiefonds hingewiesen werden: „Strategien für eine nachhaltige Aktivierung landwirtschaftlicher Bioenergie-Potenziale“ mit Fragestellungen, die den Agrarsektor und des- sen Beitrag für das österreichische Energiesystem unter naturräumlichen und ökonomischen Bedingungen im Fokus haben (Kalt et al. 2010)2. Der hier vorliegende Bericht legt den Focus auf das globale physische, wirtschaftliche und regulatorische Umfeld, in dem sich die Entwicklung der Biomasse in Relation zu anderen Energieträgern abspielt. Die Wirtschaftlichkeit einer verstärkten Nutzung von Biomasse hängt einerseits davon ab, welche Maßnahmen zugunsten einer Umstellung des Energiesystems auf erneuerbare Energieträger weltweit getroffen werden, und anderseits davon, welche erneu- erbaren Energieträger jetzt und in der Zukunft mit Energie aus Biomasse in Konkurrenz stehen bzw. treten werden. Das hängt wiederum davon ab, welche Ziele sich die Politik setzt und wie diese Ziele auf effi ziente Weise, d.h. zu niedrigen Kosten, erreicht werden können. 1 www.energiestratgie.at 2 http://www.eeg.tuwien.ac.at/eeg.tuwien.ac.at_pages/research/downloads/PR_179_Endbericht_ALPot. pdf 10 SR 106 Die Zukunft der Energie: Potenziale, Maßnahmen und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit von Bioenergie Die vorliegende Studie bietet eine Zusammenschau von bereits vorliegenden Doku- menten und Ergebnissen. Aus Mangel an personellen und fi nanziellen Ressourcen wurden kei- ne spezifi schen Modelle zur Analyse der anstehenden Fragen entwickelt. Als Leitfaden für die Struktur des Berichts wird eine Beschreibung des Energiesektors anhand seiner Komponenten und seiner Wertschöpfungskette verwendet. Damit soll eine Grundlage für eine informierte Diskussion über die Umstellung des Energiesystems geschaffen werden. Klaus Wagner Interimistischer Leiter Einleitung SR 106 11 1 Einleitung 1.1 Problemstellung Motivation und Zielsetzung Zu Beginn des 21. Jahrhunderts steht die Welt vor riesigen Herausforderungen, denn das der- zeitige Energiesystem, das zu 89 % auf fossilen Energieträgern und Atomenergie beruht, muss umgebaut und erweitert werden, um die Ansprüche einer wachsenden und wohlhabende- ren Bevölkerung zu erfüllen und den Klimawandel hintan zu halten. Der Umbau und Ausbau sollte daher auf Basis von erneuerbaren Energieträgern erfolgen, die in Konkurrenz zu fossilen Energieträgern stehen und auf dem freien Markt nur teilweise wettbewerbsfähig sind. Aber auch zwischen den verschiedenen
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