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Conference Summary Report

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Our Common Future Conference | Hannover · Essen | 2 – 6 November 2010 Conference Summary Report Conference Our Common Future Our Common Future Conference Summary Report Editorial Dear reader,

our globalized world is faced with a multitude of diverse challenges. Natural and man-made catastrophes, climate change, economic crises, global health issues, increasing migration, politi- cal systems in transition: The effects that go with them cannot be met by unilateral measures alone. Lasting solutions have to rely on close cooperation with others – beyond the borders of nation-states and academic disciplines.

Hence, in order to advance dialogue on these topics, the VolkswagenStiftung, Deutsche Messe and Stiftung Mercator invited eminent intellectuals from all over the world to a four-day conference held in Hannover and Essen. The event was attended by scientists and scholars, representatives of business and industry, high-court judges and church leaders, and last but not least, a large number of young researchers.

In the course of twelve conference sessions, the participants identified and discussed what they found to be the most pressing issues facing our societies, economies, and the scientific community. In addition, fundamental questions were covered like: What ­political and economic prerequisites must be fulfilled before the scientific community will be able to make substantial contributions towards resolving future issues on a global scale? What role will international institutions, religious movements, and NGOs play in a ­future world which is becoming increasingly interconnected? Where in the midst of the grave dangers threatening humankind can we perceive opportunities for action on the part of civil society actors: For individuals and organizations?

It goes without saying that the conference “Our Common Future” did not come up with a comprehensive set of recipes for shaping a just and better future. Nevertheless, it did make an important contribution towards stimulating the international debate and ­providing tentative suggestions: This is portrayed in this publication. It contains key- note speeches of internationally renowned experts, portraits of passionately committed young academics and their projects, as well as conversations between experts from ­various spheres of life.

Despite the partially bleak outlook, the conference “Our Common Future” did give cause for some hope. It showed that the scholarly and scientific community, at least, is capable of taking common action across borders and at a global level.

Wilhelm Krull Wolfram von Fritsch Bernhard Lorentz Secretary General Chairman of the Board President VolkswagenStiftung Deutsche Messe Stiftung Mercator

5 024 056 About the Economic and Urban Global Health and Conference Development Molecular Medicine

005 028 060 Editorial Paul Collier Colin D. Mathers 008 Global Development Life Expectancy Essay 032 063 Closing the Gap Francois Bourguignon Rudi Balling 012 Economic Disparities Big Biology The Conference 036 070 Facing Our Common Future Ananya Roy Global Young Faculty Project 018 Megacities Equitable Global Health Worldwide Science 046 071 020 Suketu Mehta Fidele Ntie Kang Homi K. Bhabha and Urban Future Burden of Disease Norbert Lammert 048 072 Global Young Faculty Project Elizabeth Blackburn Essen/Istanbul Age Limits 174 050 074 Impressions Deljana Iossifova Luis Guachalla, Natalia Urban Planning Gavrilova and Leonid Gavrilov 188 Talking about Population Growth Hosts and Partners 051 Nnaemeka Ikegwuonu 077 190 Transmitting Development Constance Walyaro Publication Details Educating Peers 052 Rumin Luo and Ludger Pries Talking about Migration

6 Introduction Our Common Future 080 112 142 Climate Change Future Human Rights and and Energy Technologies Global Values

084 116 146 Ottmar Edenhofer Justine Cassell Antjie Krog A New Global Deal Virtual Communication Reconciliation 088 120 151 Wolfgang Kinzelbach Daniel Sperling Steven Vertovec Resource Allocation Postfossil Mobility Crossing Borders 092 125 154 Nebojsa Nakicenovic David Simchi-Levi Pippa Norris Green Energy Smart Production Management Society and Secularism 102 134 164 Liadi Mudashiru and Claire Global Young Faculty Project Global Young Faculty Project Saunders Being 3.0 Interfaith Pavilion Talking about Climate Change 136 166 105 Bob Jeffery Wei Shen James Evans Transportation Intellectual Capital Green Urban Design 137 167 106 A. Idil Gaziulusoy Philip Jenkins Global Young Faculty Project Industrial Design Christianity - from South to North Facing Climate Change 138 168 108 Luc de Ferran Liav Orgad Klaus Töpfer The Brazilian Model Integration and Values Climate Governance 169 Ashis Nandy Embracing Religion 170 Joseph Cardinal Zen Ze-Kiun Cardinal Values

7 Essay

Closing the Gap by Andrew Curry

Prominent thinkers have always worried and society. To be certain, they faced a dif- about humanity’s common future. Take ferent world; one where technologies never Martin Luther King Jr., America’s best- dreamed of in 1964 now enable us to com- known civil rights leader. In 1964, he had municate instantly with people across the just been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. The globe, carry entire libraries in the palms of As humanity world around him was changing fast – not our hands, and reach into the very fabric of just in terms of society and politics, but in life to alter organisms to suit our needs and moves into a terms of technology as well. live longer lives. new millennium, Speaking to an audience in Oslo on a And yet the gap between our material December night, King surveyed the amazing achievements and our moral ones remains. it’s important scientific and technological progress made More than a sixth of the people in this world in the two decades since the end of the still live in crushing poverty. Women in to remember ­Second World War with concern. “In spite many societies remain disenfranchised and of these spectacular strides in science and subjugated. Preventable diseases like ma- that science technology, and still unlimited ones to come, laria and tuberculosis stalk wide swaths of something basic is missing,” King said. the globe. Corruption and neglect perpetu- and scholarship “There is a sort of poverty of the spirit which ate vast inequalities in material wealth. And stands in glaring contrast to our scientific mankind’s drive for material comfort con- do not exist in and technological abundance. The richer tinuously endangers the planet we live on, we have become materially, the a vacuum. poorer we have become morally and spiritually.” research Nearly a half-century later, hundreds of driving its climate into dangerous disequi- scholars and scientists gathered in Hannover librium. and Essen for a four-day conference on Our Common Future (OCF), hoping to address and bridge some of the gaps between science

8 Introduction Our Common Future humanity moral

As humanity moves into a new millen- sible for interpreting and acting upon it. nium, it’s important to remember that Others eagerly dive into the public debates ­science and scholarship do not exist in a over the issues of the day vacuum. Looking up from their lab bench- and suggest remedies, es and laptop screens, researchers must ask from global warming to equality themselves what should be a troubling ques- health care. Each camp tion: Is access to the fruits of modern science seems to view the other as suspect – and a human right, or a luxury for the rich and public opinion on the role of scientists and the lucky? Are scholars obliged to engage in the impact of their ­research results is just as public debate, or should they stand apart, divided. acting as no more than neutral advisors to policy makers and politicians? In short, what When the public perceives scientists tak- role should researchers play in solving the ing an activist role, the backlash can be sig- world’s most pressing problems, like climate nificant. The recent “Climategate” scandal, change, infectious diseases, and economic in which a group of climate researchers in inequality? the UK were accused of massaging data to make a stronger case for global warming, is The answer is far from clear-cut. Many a classic example of research being attacked scientists argue that a scholar’s job is to do for political reasons. Multiple independent good, unbiased research, providing solid reviews deemed the charges unfounded – data to policy makers who are then respon- but the damage was dramatic nonetheless. “A lot of people out there would rather shoot the messenger than change anything in their In short, lives,” says Joachim Schellnhuber, a pre- eminent climate scientist who led one of the what role can OCF conference sessions on Climate Change and Energy. researchers

There’s no doubt that in the highly char- play in solving ged debates over our common future that play out in the world’s parliaments and the world’s most pressing problems?

9 science

­legis­latures, science is often twisted to Technology for technology’s sake may ­political ends. But researchers must decide not be the answer. Scientists should be aware whether that is an ar- of the potential uses of their work, and strive gument for abandon- to make their research part of a better com- responsibility ing the public realm mon future. The American poet Henry entirely, or for step- David Thoreau disparaged many of the ad- ping up and taking vocal and visible positions vances of his day as “improved means to an in advocating for their conclusions. unimproved end.” By the same token, today’s scientists should ask whether they have a There is also a need to strike a balance responsibility to research primarily things between basic and applied science. Just as that will improve humanity’s lot, or wheth- pharmaceutical companies have a responsi- er science is an end in itself. bility to research not only high-profit drugs for the world’s wealthy, but also cures for There’s no doubt the fruits of science neglected tropical diseases, malaria, and tu- and technology can be a tremendous force berculosis, researchers from all fields should for good when harnessed properly, some- think about how their work can help lift the times beyond all ability to predict what they world’s “bottom billion” out of poverty. might one day be good for. Take, for in- stance, the Web’s power to bring people Despite many advances, great gaps in together – embodied most recently by Face- technological and basic infrastructures re- book and Twitter – making it possible for main. Communications and budget prob- democracy and civil rights activists in the There’s no lems hobble researchers in the Middle East and developing world, for example North Africa to initi- doubt the fruits in drug research, relegating ate protest move- many of the diseases that have future ments that opened of science and the greatest impact on the global South to the door for profound change in their second place in the race for cures. ­societies. Though the results have been technology ­decidedly mixed and the dramas are still playing out on the streets of Damascus and can be a in the deserts of Libya, there’s no arguing tremendous that the situation has changed dramatically. force for good.

10 Introduction Our Common Future ingenuity

By the same token, access to mobile Though the future remains unknowable, phones, considered a luxury for the ultra- the overall message of the participants at the rich just a few decades ago, has transformed OCF conference was positive. Speaker after the lives of billions in the develop- speaker had the same ing world by bringing rural areas message: Man has the out of isolation and spreading ability and the inge- information about markets to policy nuity to make our every farmer. planet a better place for us all when thor- ough research is combined with common But it’s not enough to count on lucky sense and humanity. What we lack right now accidents and trickle-down technological is the political will to make hard choices and Man has the applications. Science must be applied in sacrifices. smart, sustainable ways to the problems we ability and face down the road – and the backing of In his 1964 speech, King was at once good policy can help. Subsidies for drug optimistic and wary. “Enlarged material the ingenuity research and public outreach could solve powers spell enlarged peril if there is not many of the basic health problems plaguing proportionate growth of the soul,” King said. to make Africa and Asia. Renewable energy, sup- “When the ‘without’ of man’s nature subju- ported today by subsidies and tax breaks, gates the ‘within,’ dark storm clouds begin our planet a can take us into a future without carbon- to form in the world.” The OCF conference belching smokestacks and cars. And by con- made clear that to reach a common future, better place sciously nurturing networks of young people from different walks of life and from researchers from around the world through different fields of research will have to work for us all. grants and exchange programs, it’s possible together. And while scientific progress by to forge the scientific alliances of the future itself can be a dangerous thing, ingenuity today. and hope are also forces that can make a better world for us all.

Andrew Curry is an American journalist and chief editor of this report.

11 The Conference

Facing Our Common Future

At the beginning of the 21st century, social, environmental, cultural, and technological changes are all happening at an unprece- dented pace. The best approach to the chal- lenges posed by this fundamental change is to confront them, develop new concepts and measures, and actively shape the future. ­Covering five big issues – Global Health and Molecular Medicine, Economic and Urban Development, Climate Change and Energy, Future Technologies as well as Human Rights and Global Values – the Our Com- mon Future conference provided a platform for leading intellectuals, researchers, busi- nesspeople, and politicians as well as a cross- section of young and future leaders to enter into a dialogue, present perspectives, and – last but not least – suggest solutions for the way ahead.

12 Introduction Our Common Future Worldwide Science Young researchers from all over the world were invited to Hanno- ver and Essen. The marks on the map show where they are pursu- ing their academic careers.

Global Young Faculty The Global Young Faculty was an inter- disciplinary network of around 100 postdoctoral researchers from the German Ruhr region. Funded by Stiftung Mercator, they had the opportunity to present their solutions to the challenges of our globalized world and to collaborate with interna- tional experts. Members of the Global Young Faculty worked together in five groups: Climate, Technology, Economics, Health, and Culture and Society. The groups each consisted of 10 to 25 researchers, all with different academic backgrounds and exper- tise. The Global Young Faculty was an initiative of Stiftung Mercator, coordinated by the Institute for Advanced Study in the Humanities (KWI) in Essen. It was a contribution of these two institutions, the University Alliance Metropolis Ruhr, and the extra- university research institutes to the European Capi- tal of Culture Ruhr.2010. Additional support came from the Ministry of Innovation, Science, Research and Technology of North Rhine-Westphalia. For more, visit: www.global-young-faculty.de

18 Introduction Our Common Future Our Common Future Fellows Global challenges should be approached by bridging different cultures, nations, disciplines, and generations. To this end, the VolkswagenStiftung invited 100 young researchers from all over the world to participate in the conference “Our Com- mon Future." In 2010, these young researchers were given the opportunity to pursue an intensive intellectual exchange with one another and with members of the Global Young Faculty in the lead-up to OCF. During the conference they presented their contributions in workshops and panel discussions. For more, visit: www.ourcommonfuture.de

19 “My own experience of living in the ‘in between’ of cultural diversity was a lesson I learnt at home."

Homi K. Bhabha

Homi Bhabha is director of the Humanities Center at Harvard University and delivered the welcome address at the Reception of the City of Hannover for the OCF conference participants at the Gallery in the Royal Herrenhausen Gardens.

Multidimensional Future “Our common future is not only multicultural, it is also multivocal and multidimensional. And it is a common future that is part of a world that is lived ‘at the limits,’ facing asymmetrical pressures and anachronistic forces. … Doubt and perplexity are also our common future. We frequently live in the midst of worlds of information and identification that lie ‘in between’ cultures and customs.” Inter-cultural Interpretation “A renewed sense of civic or civil belonging in a globalized age demands a language of intercul- tural interpretation as well as the policy-oriented prose of social integration. It must be a language rich in metaphor and imaginative power; a lan- guage that evolves towards a sense of consensus or community by being able to sustain the public representation of social conflicts and political contradictions.” Global Citizens “Languages of constitutional reform and political rationalism lack a vocabulary that addresses the affective life of global citizens – their sense of public anxiety, ambivalence, uncertainty, indecision – as they ponder choices that emerge inbetween cultures and their varied practices.” Imagined Communities “There is a kind of global cosmopolitanism, widely influential now, that configures the planet as a concen- tric world of national societies extending to global villages .... Global cosmopolitans ... frequently inhabit ‘imagined communities’ that consist of silicon valleys and software campuses; although, increasingly, they have to face up to the carceral world of call centers and the sweatshops of outsourcing.”

21 “An impor- tant sign, the mark of Western civilization, is doubt.” Norbert Lammert

Norbert Lammert has served as President of the German Parliament since 2005. He also teaches political science at the Ruhr-University Bochum. These quotes are drawn from his keynote speech opening the Essen part of the OCF conference. Responsibility “The decision on what kind of future we want isn’t a question for science alone. Rather, it’s a question for us all – for scientists, politicians, economists, and engineers alike. No one has plausible grounds for claiming such decisions for themselves, just as no one has a right to abandon their share of the responsibility.” Evolution “One of the obvious changes that define the time in which we live is that the modern world has increasingly taken charge of its own evolution. The natural structures of our world are in decline, while the artificial ones are on the rise. Whether that’s progress on the part of mankind or whether it’s the biggest threat the world has ever seen is by no means merely an interesting philosophical issue. It is the very concrete question of what our common future will be like.” Diversity “A free society can never be free of conflicts. Conflicts are the inevitable, predictable cost of a society’s freedom. But a society can only afford conflicts if a consensus exists on the rules governing how they should be handled. And without a minimal amount of consensus, without a mini- mum of common beliefs and principles, a society is also Truth unable to cope with diversity.” “The futility of any attempt to find a conclusive answer to the question ‘What is the truth?’ is, in fact, the prerequisite for democracy. The logical prerequisite for the central principle of democratic decision-making – namely, majority voting – is that no claim is made to absolute truth, or at least that claims to absolute truth are not accepted as a justification for decisions. You can’t vote on the truth.” Doubt “One important aspect of Western civilization, in my view – indeed, its hallmark – is doubt. Since the days of the Enlightenment, doubt has placed a question mark instead of an exclamation point behind every claim to a supposedly absolute, eternal truth.”

23 Economic and Urban Development

"Homo sapiens has become an urban

species.“ Suketu Mehta

24 Economic and Urban Development Our Common Future Economic and Urban Development Introduction

A billion people on the Earth still live everything that happens to us is a global ­session. “For the first time in history the in poverty while a small segment of the phenomenon, but it’s just not true.” ­majority of the human population on ­planet world’s population enjoys relative luxury Klasen points to Africa as a prime exam- earth is living in urban settlements.” and wealth. But in the middle, surprising ple of a region standing in stark contrast to OCF participants argued that this phe- things are happening. Contrary to the some of its lagging trading partners. In nomenon will increasingly define different doom-and-gloom headlines, many of the Africa, the world’s demand for natural re- domains of our common future as the world’s world’s developing countries are seeing their sources has yielded ten years of growth. population continues to converge in urban fortunes rise – along with the prosperity of “Africa came through the economic crisis areas: Demographers showed how metropo- their cities. The opportunities and chal- very well,” says Klasen. “It is still unclear lises are expanding as rural populations move lenges of economic changes for social inclu- whether this is sustainable, but things in from the country to the city looking for work, sion around the world were a central subject Africa look better than they have for dec- while other experts analyzed the megacities’ of discussion at the OCF conference sessions ades.” Workshop participants from develop- role as the mass dream of the global South. on Economic and Urban Development. ing countries also stressed that leveraging Led by scholars from the fields of sociology A diverse, counter-intuitive global picture that precarious prosperity using well- and urban studies, participants also took a was a key theme. “Everybody from the rich thought-out development strategies that hard look at the growth of slums, and what countries thinks the financial crisis was a ter- account for local culture will be critical to it might mean for the development of future rible thing, but for much of the rest of the maintaining the trend. cities and societies. world, it didn’t matter so much,” says Stephan A key feature of the societies of the future The various impacts of this “urban tran- Klasen. The professor of Development Eco- is the city. “Mankind has entered the urban sition,” as Kreibich calls it, make smart urban nomics and Empirical Economic Research at age,” says Volker Kreibich, a former professor planning on a sound scientific basis – from the University of Göttingen and one of OCF’s of Spatial Planning in Developing Countries efficient and clean public transport to a re- scientific advisors points out that the Western at the University of Dortmund and the alistic appraisal of how internal migration perspective is too narrow. “We tend to think scientific advisor for the OCF Metropolis works – eminently important.

26 Economic and Urban Development Our Common Future 50% The reduction in global poverty since 1980. 42,000,000 people will live in one city when China’s “Turn The Pearl River Delta Into One” project unites nine large cities into one. 60% of the world’s population will live in cities by 2030. $300,000,000,000 Amount of money 150 million migrants sent from the countries where they work to their (developing) home countries in 2006. This total is greater than all the foreign aid and direct investment from rich countries to the developing world that year combined. 2,000,000,000 Number of people living in slums by 2030.

27 Global Development

Help for the World's Poorest “The case for concentrating international attention on the bottom billion has become stronger.”

Paul Collier, CBE is professor of economics and director of the Centre for the Study of African Economies at the University of Oxford, and author of the 2007 book The Bottom Billion. From 1998 to 2003, he was director of the Development Research Group of the World Bank.

28 Economic and Urban Development Our Common Future over $600. Similarly, in other developing surge in extraction of natural resources from Poverty is everywhere, but some peo- countries infant mortality dropped even their territories: The scale of the financial ple – the “bottom billion”, a phrase more rapidly, by an astonishing 18 percent. flows will be without historical precedent. coined by Oxford economist Paul Collier – Similarly, in terms of governance, while the However, this will pose huge challenges of are in particularly desperate danger of being bottom billion advanced absolutely on the economic governance. A second opportu- left behind for good by rising prosperity. Yet ICRG measure, they did not succeed in clos- nity is the consequence of the rapid rise of even when the world’s rich muster the will ing the gap with other developing countries. the middle-income developing economies to help, aid efforts are often squandered be- Indeed, since the turn of the millennium as industrial powers. As skills and wages rise cause of ill-thought-out policy measures and the case for concentrating on international rapidly in these countries, there may be political expediency. In his keynote lecture attention on the bottom billion has become “room at the bottom” for some of the poor- at the OCF session on Economic Develop- stronger. China and India have demonstrat- est countries to break into global markets ment for Global Inclusion, Collier argued ed that their spectacular growth is robust. for labor-intensive manufactures such as that international development aid must be The Asian crisis which beset some other garments. The crisis in the OECD has wors- wielded like a scalpel to target the neediest major emerging market economies such as ened prospects for conventional develop- countries most effectively. Indonesia proved to be temporary. Brazil ment assistance but opened prospects for finally began to achieve the promise it had more commercial forms of finance. Finally, long failed to harness. Meanwhile, the inter- I will discuss how the bottom billion might The period 2000 – 2008 was, in retro- national community demonstrated repeat- access new forms of international finance. spect, a remarkable global boom during edly and embarrassingly that effective which developing countries converged rap- international cooperation on any objective Natural Resource Exploitation idly on the countries of the Organisation for is extremely difficult. We should learn from The countries of the bottom billion have Economic Co-operation and Development, this to economize on the tasks that we place long been heavily dependent upon natural or OECD. Even the countries of the bottom before it. Of course, there remain many poor resource exports. This is both a problem and billion took part in this growth, in contrast people in India, China, Indonesia, Brazil, an opportunity. It is a problem because to the previous two decades during which and the other emerging market economies. natural resource extraction does not di- they had stagnated. Were we to be guided by the composition of rectly employ many people and so has only Approximating this group of nations the annual global poverty headcount, inter- limited direct impact on the incomes and using the official category of “Least Devel- national development efforts would be well-being of ordinary citizens. Indeed, re- oped Country,” per capita income rose on widely (and hopelessly) dispersed. Poverty source extraction may foreclose opportuni- average by an unprecedented 4 percent per needs to be seen in a dynamic context: The ties for industrialization that would have year, and this was reflected in some of the children of poor households in China have stronger transmission mechanisms for pov- fundamental indicators of well-being: Infant credible hope of a transformed life, whereas erty reduction. Further, revenues are volatile, mortality, for example, dropped by around the children of similarly poor households in making macroeconomic management dif- 11 percent. Consistent with these improve- Chad do not. The case for international in- ficult and increasing the need for social pro- ments in outcomes, measures of governance tervention also needs to be seen in the con- tection. also advanced: The average score on the text of the scope for domestic strategies of Natural resource exploitation is, however, widely used International Country Risk poverty reduction. Middle-income societies increasingly becoming an opportunity. High Guide (ICRG), a measure of risk to investors have the option of reducing extreme abso- commodity prices increase the rents on re- in 150 different world economies, improved lute poverty through redistribution, and this source extraction more than proportionately. by nearly 4.5 points. choice is essentially a matter for each soci- In addition to this direct effect, high prices However, despite this absolute progress, ety itself to resolve. Low-income societies induce discovery. Until recently, there has been the bottom billion continued to diverge do not have this option: Equitable redistri- much less prospecting in the bottom billion from the rest of mankind. In countries above bution would simply leave everyone poor, than in the richer countries. As of 2000, be- the bottom billion line, per capita income and so it is in these societies that interna- neath the typical square kilometer of the bot- rose faster, by over 5 percent per year, so that tional assistance is warranted. tom billion countries, only one-quarter of the the income differential between them and I would like to suggest an agenda for as- subsoil assets had been found compared to the the world’s poorest countries widened. In sisting the countries of the bottom billion, typical square kilometer of the OECD coun- absolute terms, per capita income in the bot- focused on new opportunities arising from tries. This is not because less is there, but be- tom billion rose by just under $100, where- recent changes in the world economy. The cause there has been less investment in as in other developing countries it rose by most important opportunity will be the prospecting by ­resource extraction companies.

29 Over the next decade, the extraction of stage system of negotiations for the rights resources for development. It sets out the natural resources from Least Developed to resource extraction. In the first stage, a entire decision chain involved in harnessing Countries (LDCs) is likely to expand both in company which is either too small to face natural resources for development on a Web value and in volume. It is a unique opportu- scrutiny, or not OECD-based, negotiates site (www.naturalresourcecharter.org) in- nity for LDCs, but the history of resource with the respective government. In the sec- tended for governments, citizens and com- extraction is not encouraging: Harnessing the ond stage, this company sells on the rights panies. Its 12 precepts propose standards for opportunity requires a capacity to resist pres- to a major OECD company that has the resource extraction companies, the govern- sures of both corruption and populism. Pri- technology and finance to undertake exploi- ments of the countries which are home to marily, the problems and opportunities call tation. A third and related international such companies, and the governments of the for distinctive domestic policies by the gov- initiative has been to coordinate the laws countries in which resources are extracted. ernments of the bottom billion. However, relating to money laundering, and a fourth some actions of the international commu- initiative has been the Kimberley Process, The Challenge of Diversification nity can also be helpful, like international which has curtailed illegal international Trade preferences for LDCs continue to be financing of prospecting and other geological transactions in diamonds through certifica- part of the world trading system. Under the information, OECD initiatives against cor- tion of the source of origin. The government Generalised System of Preferences, LDCs have porate corruption, and international stan- of Nigeria has recently proposed that an access to most OECD markets, and historical dards for companies extracting mineral and equivalent system of certification be put ties have been recognized in schemes such as other resources from LDCs. into place to curtail the large-scale theft of the EU’s Lomé and Cotonou agreements. The fight against corporate corruption crude oil from the Nigerian Delta. The latest Recent years have seen several extensions of can start in the OECD countries themselves. initiative is the Lugar-Cardin Amendment, preference schemes. The EU’s Everything but Governments are dependent upon indi- now enacted into US law, whereby all com- Arms scheme, initiated in 2001, gave duty- vidual officials and ministers to negotiate panies listed on the New York stock market free access to LDCs in (almost) all products. deals with resource extraction companies. engaged in resource extraction must report The United States introduced the African Companies can gain immensely by bribing all payments made associated with contracts Growth and Opportunities Act in 2000, im- these individuals. This gives rise to an “agen- in considerable detail. Potentially, such leg- proving market access for eligible sub-Saha- cy problem” for the societies of the bottom islation could so discourage the major com- ran African countries. The United States also billion. While widely recognized, to date it panies from entering into prospecting operates the Caribbean Basin Initiative and contracts with the gov- the Andean Trade Promotion Act. “The fight against corporate ernments of the bottom These schemes have two main elements. corruption can start in the OECD billion, and that the only One is the trade preference – the granting countries themselves.” companies left as part- of market access at reduced tariff rates and ners for governments with less restrictive quotas, possibly going has been addressed by a variety of ad hoc would be cowboy operations. all the way to duty and quota-free market international initiatives. One such is the Ex- Neither the interests of the OECD coun- access. The other is the constraints on par- tractive Industries Transparency Initiative, tries, nor those of the emerging market ticipation. These define eligible countries started in 2003 and now with over thirty economies, are the same as the interests of and products, and also impose rules of signatories among the governments of re- the LDCs; nor are the available models ­origin (ROOs). There has frequently been a source-rich countries, indicating concern for of OECD “best-practice” particularly ap- tension between these elements, with the the problem. It aims to counter corruption propriate for LDCs: They need norms and constraints severely reducing the effective- in contracts by requiring companies engaged stan-dards appropriate for their own cir- ness of preferences as an instrument of in resource extraction to report all their pay- cumstances. These are now provided by the ­economic development. These constraints ments, country by country; thereby forcing Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative are likely to be particularly important for illicit payments into the open. Another ini- (EITI), and the Natural Resource Charter. ­manufactured products, and redesign of tiative has been the pan-OECD anti-bribery The EITI is a multi-stakeholder interna- preferences is needed if they are to facilitate legislation which has made it a criminal of- tional organization that focuses exclusively developing country participation in a glo- fense for an OECD-based company to bribe on the transparency of revenues. Currently balized world trading system. government officials anywhere in the world around 30 governments are using it as a The importance of manufacturing and in order to win a contract. commitment technology. The Natural Re- other modern sector exports to the wider One consequence of this OECD legisla- source Charter is an information guide on process of economic growth is now sup- tion has been the rapid emergence of a two- the decisions involved in harnessing natural ported by a good deal of evidence. The Asian

30 Economic and Urban Development Our Common Future experience is well documented, and a number The experience of trade preferences has were not so different from where such low- of recent studies point to the role of exports demonstrated that they are largely ineffec- income countries are today. Over the years, in growth accelerations. Another showed that tive as devices for transferring income the IBRD club has, in effect, collectively particular growth accelerations are associ- (“rents”) to poor countries. For this purpose moved up. In the process its members have ated with an average 13 percentage point alone, they are simply not worth prioritizing become less risky and so are now able indi- increase in the share of trade in income (over as an objective. However, the experience has vidually to borrow commercially: The IBRD a 5-year period) as well as an acceleration of also demonstrated that as devices for pump- club has become less necessary other than the rate of transfer of labor into manufactur- priming the entry of a country into global at times of financial crisis. A second ap- ing. Another study points to the association manufacturing, in particular the manufac- proach, which might well be combined with between growth accelerations and trade ture of apparel, they can be useful. the above, is for the rate of return on the growth in sub-Saharan Africa. bonds issued by the bottom billion to be How can trade preferences be designed The Challenge of Declining Aid linked to some aspect related to their ability to maximize their effectiveness in stimulat- Until recently, the only financing for govern- to repay. A final link between returns and ing a manufacturing supply response? Man- ment permitted to the bottom billion was performance is to move the focus from the ufacturing supply response is not a simple overseas development aid, or ODA. The national level to the project level. matter of moving up a supply curve, but prospects for aggregate ODA are not encour- depends on a wide range of complementary aging: Unprecedented fiscal pressures in Investing Competently inputs, some of which can be imported and OECD countries are reducing aid budgets. The post-boom global economy looks to some of which have to be developed domes- There is a need both to sharpen the focus of have some important differences with the tically, often involving increasing returns to ODA onto the bottom billion, and to look half-century since the bottom billion gained scale. Trade preferences can have a catalytic to alternatives. independence. As other developing coun- role, but will only perform this role if they Given that the prospects for total aid are tries rapidly converge on a crisis-ridden are designed to allow import of complemen- discouraging, a sensible strategy for the gov- OECD, the countries of the bottom billion tary inputs, and to operate in countries with ernments of the bottom billion is to focus are becoming increasingly distinctive. The the skills and infrastructure to be near the attention on its allocation. While the osten- OECD economies are in crisis and so aid is threshold of global manufacturing com- sible rationale for aid is to address poverty, set to decline relative to the Gross Domestic petitiveness. most aid goes to other developing countries. Product of the bottom billion: New types of For the bottom billion, to diversify their Indeed, large aid flows are going to middle- international finance will need to be devel- exports into manufacturing may require a income countries that are already growing oped. However, the most important source catalyst to create clusters of activity and lift rapidly. If aid were focused on the bottom of finance is likely to be the money gener- them to threshold productivity levels. Forty billion it would permit a major expansion in ated by resource extraction. Because other years of African domestic protectionism the aid flow to them without requiring any developing countries are growing rapidly, have failed to induce such clusters. How- increase in OECD aid budgets. As the cate- commodity prices are likely to remain high, ever, the evidence suggests that – given the gory of “emerging market economy” expands, and this will make the management of nat- right conditions – it is possible for African it is important that these countries cease to ural resources by the governments of the countries to accelerate their modern sector be aid recipients so that aid can be concen- bottom billion critical. If governments can export growth in sectors like the apparel and trated on those countries that really need it. invest this money competently within their textile industries. Designing policy to pro- There are a few ways to address this own economies, some of them stand a mote such growth requires recognition of a problem. International Monetary Fund pro- chance of diversifying into light industry. number of features of modern global trade; grams explicitly require governments of the The international community can enhance fragmentation, increasing returns, and the bottom billion not to borrow commercially. this opportunity by granting privileged mar- consequent “lumpiness” of development. However, this condition is now being re- ket access to the manufactured products of Domestic policy and international policy are thought. This will open up options for fi- the bottom billion. complements. Domestic policy needs to nancing. One approach might be for the ensure a good business environment and World Bank to create an International Bank This is a condensed version of a speech infrastructure, but this can be spatially con- of Reconstruction and Development given at the OCF conference’s session centrated. International policy needs to (IBRD)– like a club of borrowers designed on Economic Development for Global redesign trading arrangements with rules for low-income countries with reasonable Inclusion. More can be found at of origin that do not penalize narrow spe- economic governance. When the IBRD was www.ourcommonfuture.de/collier cialization. created it was designed for countries that

31 Economic Disparities

Reducing Inequality “There is something new happening in the global economy.”

Francois Bourguignon is the former chief economist at the World Bank and director of the Paris School of Economics.

32 Economic and Urban Development Our Common Future global inequality trend dips downward very ing in the developed world that is causing It’s a difficult conundrum: Global in- steeply. There is clearly a big change taking serious problems for the countries of the equality is going down overall, the place. global North. In the United States, five per- gaps between the world’s richest and some What is behind this changing inequality? cent of the labor force has lost manufactur- of the poorest nations are continuing to There has been a lot of discussion about ing jobs just in the last decade. Just grow. Francois Bourguignon, former chief whether we live in a world where what is transferring five percent of the labor force economist at the World Bank, says that trade, going on in the North is decoupled from from one sector to another sector produces investment, aid, technology, and policy must what is going on in the South. This is not a lot of frictions. In Germany, the problem all play a part in turning this situation true of economic cycles and the recent crisis is much less acute, but in the rest of Europe around. At the same time, Bourguignon told is good proof of it. One thing is remarkably the problem is quite serious. Because of that, participants in the Our Common Future clear, however: The North–South divergence for the next 10 years the growth rate of those conference’s Economic Development session in growth trends, which started in the early countries will be low. that countries must beware of the rising 1990s and in which developing and emerg- By contrast, in big emerging countries, inequalities within their borders if develop- ing countries begin to develop much more growth is likely to continue, yet at a slightly ment is to flourish in the future. rapidly than high-income countries. slower pace. Those countries will rely on The drop in global inequality is due to growing domestic markets, which are devel- this divergence in growth rate. Even during oping very quickly. At some stage, China will We are at a turning point in history. the big recession, in the depths of 2009, the have to reorient its development strategy Inequality in the world, which has been in- difference in terms of growth rates between more toward the domestic market, simply creasing for more than four centuries, is now the South and the North was more or less because the growth rate in the North will going down. This means that there is some- the same as when the global economy was not be that great. Growth then will have to thing new happening in the global economy. peaking. Gradually, the developing world is focus on its domestic market or on exports Not only is global inequality going catching up. In the evolution of the global to other developing countries rather than down, but it is going down at a time when economy, this is something new. exports to developed countries. global growth is extremely rapid. The change This has had dramatic consequences for But there is no denying that emerging is not because growth in rich countries is the world’s poverty rate. Between 1980 and countries will be affected by slow economic suddenly slowing down, but because growth 2005, global poverty was halved. If we were growth in the North. Despite the fact that in the developing world is speeding up. The to extend the trend to combination of less inequality and fast 2015, then the Millen- “Growth in developed countries growth means that global poverty rates are nium Development will stay slow as a result of public falling very rapidly, too. Goal on global poverty indebtedness.” Strikingly, at the same time global in- will most likely be equality is going down, inequality within reached thanks to a combination of fast developing countries are growing very countries is on the rise. It seems that domes- growth and declining inequality in the world. quickly, developed countries still represent tic inequality is partly replacing interna- What’s next? It is always difficult to do between 55 and 72 percent of global GDP, tional inequality, which is a threat to the long-range forecasts, but the first important depending on whether purchasing power whole process of global development. If in- point is that growth in developed countries parities are taken into account or not. One- equality goes up too fast and by too much will stay slow as a result of public indebted- half or even three-quarters of the global in too many countries, and if this change ness. Many important countries in the world economy slowing down will have a substan- is attributed in the public opinion to glo- are in the middle of a fiscal contraction be- tial impact on the rest of the world. balization, as it is often the case today, then cause of their high public debt. Unemploy- Global equalizing is thus likely to con- this might act as a brake on the globalization ment is also high and may take some time tinue because of this combination of regula- process and the gains from globalization. to come back to normal. tion, long-term adjustment in labor markets Global inequality has been increasing in rich countries, and dynamic growth basically since the early 19th century until Long-Run Trends in emerging economies. What we have the 1980s. Then it flattened out. And there But there are also long-run forces for slow ­observed over the last 20 years is not just a even was a slight improvement in the dispar- growth: New regulation of the financial sec- cyclical event. It is a very strong central force ity between the top 20 percent of the world’s tor, which is just getting started, for example. in the global economy. population and the bottom 20 percent. But Even more importantly, there is a long-term There are several caveats, of course. Poor when you look at the period since 1997, the adjustment process away from manufactur- countries, in particular sub-Saharan African

33 countries, may be in a slightly different situ- It is not impossible to combine exports inequalities at the top, while people at the ation. It may be misleading to simply lump of natural resources and manufacturing bottom struggle with unemployment and sub-Saharan Africa together with other production. A country like Indonesia, which stagnant wages. emerging economies. The numbers show has huge resources of oil, was able to grow So what is the risk here? Because in- that growth in sub-Saharan Africa has be- a very dynamic manufacturing sector. The equality is increasing, there may be some come strongly positive and faster than problem of sub-Saharan African countries resistance to globalization which is often growth in high-income countries over the is that their markets are not big enough seen as the cause of increasing disparities. last decade, but this is potentially deceptive. whereas Indonesia has a domestic market of This would then reduce the benefit that the According to some analysts, recent 250 million people. To keep growth going global community can get out of globaliza- growth in Africa is due to better policies and in Africa, larger markets must be created. tion through some kind of return toward better governance. It is true that policies Part of that creation must include regional protectionism. have improved and in many countries gov- integration through true free trade areas and Surprisingly, the same trends hold true ernance has made progress. But many other trade policies that would open up markets when we look at developing countries. Six- analysts argue that what is happening today in the global North to African products. ty percent of developing countries (where in sub-Saharan African is simply the reflec- the data are available, at least) show an in- tion of very high commodity prices, and the The Hidden Threat crease in inequality. Probably the most obvi- day those prices go down the situation will At the same time, as we observe this fall in ous case is China, where inequality has take a turn for the worse. The latter explana- global inequality, we observe a very notice- increased very substantially. In India, too, tion seems convincing. When we look at the able increase in inequality within a large there are signs that inequality is increasing. evolution of the structure of the African number of countries over the last 20 years. Yet, a counter-example would be Brazil economies, we see very little change. Manu- When we look at OECD countries, inequal- where inequality went down, even though facturing has remained at 10 percent or less ity has significantly increased in more than still at a very high level. as a share of the overall economy. As long as half of them. You have an increase in Italy, When we look at global inequality, these there is no change in the structure of GDP in Germany, or in Japan. You have a big in- within-country changes are not enough to crease in the UK and reverse the equalizing trend between the “Within-country trends are not still a bigger one in the global North and South. But what is hap- United States. Some of pening at the country level may be more enough to reverse the equalizing these changes may be important from a political point of view. An trend between the global North due to reforms of tax- increase in inequality at the national level and South.” benefit systems. Others might become a real obstacle for further are due to an increase progress in global development if it is as- in those countries, it is not possible to say in the inequality of market incomes. sociated in the public opinion to the globali- that there is autonomous growth taking Really dramatic figures are observed in zation process, which is actually the case and place. Rather, growth that is witnessed today the United States. According to a congres- is certainly not totally wrong. Because of might be essentially the result of high com- sional report, the total increase in the in- that, we cannot ignore domestic inequalities. modity prices. come of the bottom 20 percent has been 6 One way of trying to avoid this negative Basic economics dictates that there will percent over the 25 years between 1979 and evolution towards more inequality is en- be a supply response to those very high 2005. The richest 20 percent have seen their hanced social protection at the country commodity prices. High prices will encour- real income grow by 70 percent. And if you level. Even in some developed countries, age more commodity production, bringing look at the top 1 percent, then the increase particularly the United States, there is not prices back to some lower level. Unlike Gulf in their real income has been 176 percent. enough of this sort of social safety net. countries, sub-Saharan Africa is too pop­ Many people would think that such a ­Because of that, the adjustment within ulous and its population is growing too fast dramatic increase in economic disparities ­countries due to increasingly globalized to live on commodity rents alone. The would not be really possible in European economies may be more painful, and politi­ region needs to diversify its economy. This countries, but who knows? When we look cally more difficult. Extra social protection must be done primarily through the man- at the very top of the distribution pyramid, in both some developed countries and in ufacturing sector and through trade with executives and traders are increasingly developing countries, improving inter­ the rest of the world or, at least, with neigh- paid in Germany, France and the UK what national redistribution instruments and boring countries through regional inte­ they are paid in the United States. Upward- global development assistance could go a gration. spiraling executive pay is creating huge long way towards smoothing the transition.

34 Economic and Urban Development Our Common Future The ­development of cash transfers or micro- credit in developing countries, which seemed almost impossible 15 years ago is a good example of the kind of progress that can be made along this line. We should also add what is called “de- velopment policy coherence.” It does not “In some developed countries...there is not enough of this sort of social safety net.” “An increase in make very much sense to have generous of- ficial development assistance policies on the one hand when there are trade policies inequality at the which undo their results on the other hand. Following Nordic countries, European countries and the European Union could national level analyze more systematically the consequenc- es of their trade policies on developing countries or develop new trade facilities for those countries that find it hard to access might become a European markets. An initiative like “Eve- rything but Arms” which is giving trade preferences to Least Developed Countries real obstacle for (most of them in sub-Saharan Africa), is a good start. However, it is too modest and too restrictive through the rules of origin it further progress imposes on exporters. The US initiative AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Pact) was, from that point of view, more ef- fective but is very limited in size. in global devel- In sum, we should not simply stop and relax because the whole world is equalizing. There are formidable obstacles ahead if we opment.” are to ensure continuing global development that benefits all countries and all people within countries.

This is a condensed version of a speech given at the OCF conference’s session on Economic Development for Global Inclusion.

35 Megacities

Mass Dreams of the Modern Metropolis “The Third World slum ... is the iconic geography of this urban and human condition."

Ananya Roy is professor in the Department of City and Regional­ Planning at the University of California, Berkeley, where she teaches urban studies and ­international development.

36 Economic and Urban Development Our Common Future disease – are the grounds of numerous di- This too, of course, was the theme of the Regarded from the North, many cities agnostic and reformist interventions. controversial film, Slumdog Millionaire. of the global South are understood And it is the slum, the Third World slum, While protested in India as an instance of through their vast, informal urban spaces – that is the iconic geography of this urban and “poverty pornography,” the film can be read their slums, in short. Hit movies feature the human condition. It is the “recognizable as an allegory for the 21st century metropo- slums of Mumbai, reality tours take in the frame” through which the cities of the global lis and its dhandha, a Hindi word that means favelas of Rio de Janeiro and the townships South are understood and their difference transactions, hustles, business. In Slumdog of South Africa, and Nigeria’s mushrooming mapped and located. If we are to pay attention Millionaire, everyone is out to make a deal: “make-do” megacity of Lagos has become a to what postcolonial critic Gayatri Chakra- the traders in misery who maim children so symbol for the future of Africa. Speaking at vorty Spivak has identified as the “worlding that they can beg on the sidewalks of Mum- the OCF’s session on Metropolis, urban of what is now called the Third World,” then bai; the traders in space who replace the planning expert Ananya Roy explained how it is necessary to confront how the megacity slums of Dharavi with sky-high condomin- the term slum is an oversimplification – and is “worlded” through the icon of the slum. In iums; the traders in dreams who create the made some guesses as to how the world’s other words, the slum has become the most television programs and films that create a cities might look in the future. common itinerary through which cities of the world of fantasy for those who need it, rich global South are recognized. and poor. I do not use the term itinerary casually. It is thus that the Third World slum The 21st century will be an urban cen- Today, the Third World slum is a touristic ­becomes central to the making of urban tury, one where the human condition will itinerary, with reality tours available in the futures. Suddenly, the horizon of urbanism also be an urban condition. The 21st cen- favelas of Rio, in the townships of South is no longer in New York, or London, or Los tury will also be a Southern century and Africa, in the kampungs of Indonesia, and Angeles, but rather in the global South. perhaps even an Asian century. Much of featured in travel guides ranging from From- It is thus that star architect Rem Kool- the urban growth and urbanization of this mer’s to Lonely Planet. haas interprets the urbanism of Lagos as a century will take place in the cities of the Such itineraries of recognition are inter- “culture of make-do.” In his encounter with global South, including those of the newly esting because they disrupt apocalyptic Lagos, part of Harvard’s Project on the City, emergent economic powerhouses, India stereotypes of the megacity. Against aca- Koolhaas is taken with the inventiveness of and China. I am interested in understand- demic and popular renditions of the mega- its residents as they survive the travails of ing how the making of urban futures, the city as a planet of slums, marked by the the megacity. He sees such experimental making of collective futures, the making warehousing of surplus humanity, slum responses as generating “ingenious, critical of common futures is at stake in the 21st tours present the Third World slum as places alternative systems,” a type of “self-organi- century metropolis. To understand this it of enterprise and economic activity. Here zation” creating “intense emancipatory is necessary to conceptualize the 21st cen- for example is how Pukar, an experimental zones.” tury metropolis as a mass dream. I borrow research group based in Mumbai, presents It is thus that Iranian-born sociologist this term from Suketu Mehta, who has ar- Dharavi, Mumbai’s famed slum: Asef Bayat argues that “informal life,” char- gued that “just as cinema is a mass dream Dharavi is probably the most active and acterized by “flexibility, pragmatism, nego- of the audience, Mumbai is a mass dream lively part of an incredibly industrious city. tiation, as well as constant struggle for of the people of South Asia.” What does it People have learned to respond in creative ways survival and self-development” is the “habi- mean to study the future itself as a mass to the indifference of the state … Dharavi is all tus of the dispossessed.” dream? To answer such questions we have about such resourcefulness. Over 60 years ago, And it is thus that Peruvian economist to, of course, pay attention to how the cit- it started off as a small village in the marshlands Hernando de Soto presents the Third World ies of the global South are narrated in aca- and grew, with no government support, to be- slum as a “people’s economy” populated by demic and popular discourse. come a million-dollar economic miracle provid- “heroic entrepreneurs.” For de Soto such In the urban imagination of the new ing food to Mumbai and exporting crafts and economies are rich in assets, albeit in the millennium, the “megacity” has become the manufactured goods to places as far away as defective form of dead capital. The “mystery shorthand for the human condition of the Sweden. No master plan, urban design, zoning of capital” is how such assets can be trans- global South. Cities of enormous size, they ordinance, construction law or expert know- formed into liquid capital, thereby unleash- are delineated through what Jennifer ledge can claim any stake in the prosperity of ing new frontiers of capital accumulation. Robinson has called “developmentalism.” Dharavi.… Dharavi is an economic success There is a striking resemblance between Their herculean problems of underdevelop- story that the world must pay attention to dur- such arguments of economic libertarianism ment – poverty, environmental toxicity, ing these times of global depression. and the utopian schemes of the left. For

37 example, in a sketch of “post-capitalism,” make possible new understandings of the of the good city. As the work of urban plan- geographers Katharine Gibson and Julie 21st century metropolis. The concepts are ning experts Hiba bou Akar and Mona Harb Graham celebrate the “exciting proliferation periphery, urban informality, zones of ex- shows, Hezbollah today is both insurgent of […] projects of economic autonomy and ception, and gray spaces. My claim is not militia and real estate developer. In its latter experimentation.” They showcase these as that these concepts are new and therefore guise, Hezbollah supports and implements the performing of “new economic worlds,” worthy of attention. Rather I am interested projects of urban development that can an “ontology of economic difference.” in how scholars, working in a variety of transform al-Dahiya, the Shiite ghetto, into I am highly sympathetic to these rendi- ­urban contexts, are using such concepts a city center worthy of a global city. In the tions of Third World urbanism – those that to chart new itineraries of research and resistance society, no resistance is possible place the megacity and its slums at the heart ­analysis. to the making of urban futures. The periph- of the making of urban futures. I see this ery then embodies the contradictory approach as an important correction to the Peripheries ­impulses of rule and insurgence that are silences of urban historiography and theory, In a recent treatise on city life, the London- constitutive of the 21st century metropolis. the “sanctioned ignorance” – that has repeat- based sociologist AbdouMaliq Simone edly ignored the urbanism that is the life and makes the case for the importance of the Urban Informality livelihood of much of the world’s humanity. periphery in urban life. By periphery, he In his much discussed 2006 text “Planet of I see it as an instance of what Vanessa means a “space in-between” that has “never Slums,” urban theorist Mike Davis states that Watson, of the African Center for Cities at really been brought fully under the auspices “informal survivalism” is “the new primary the University of Cape Town, has called “see- of the logic and development trajectories mode of livelihood in a majority of Third ing from the South.” that characterize a center.” World cities.” In my research, I argue that However, in my work, I also argue that I am interested in the periphery as a the informal is not a distinct and bounded it is time to think beyond the geography of space of both rule and insurgence. Such is sector of labor, housing, and governance, but the slum. To world the cities of the global the case with a periphery that often garners rather is an idiom of urbanization, a logic international at- through which differential spatial value is “Urban informality is not restricted tention, the south- produced and managed. Urban informality to the bounded space of the slum. ern suburbs of is not restricted to the bounded space of the Beirut, al-Dahiya, slum; instead, it connects the seemingly It connects the seemingly separated or the Shiite ghetto. separated geographies of slum and suburb, geographies of slum and suburb.” Here, the de facto favela and enclave. In short, informal ur- state is Hezbollah, banization is as much the purview of wealthy South through the slum means that we re- the party of God, a religious militia that has urbanites as it is that of slum dwellers. The main bound to the study of spaces of pov- matured into one of Lebanon’s most impor- analytical and political question at hand is erty, to essential forms of popular agency, to tant political parties. Al-Dahiya is the space how and why in the 21st century metropo- the habitus of the dispossessed, to the en- of what Hezbollah calls the resistance lis, elite informalities are valorized and sub- trepreneurialism of self-organizing econo- ­society, where poor, downtrodden, and dis- altern informalities are criminalized. mies. These are ontological and topological placed Shiites can create an autonomous Take for example the case of Indian understandings of urbanism, those that urbanism. With this in mind, Hezbollah has ­cities. In the case of Delhi, London-based associate the slum with poverty, and built up an infrastructure of urbanism and urban geographer Asher Ghertner notes that that associate poverty with self-organizing development that defies the logic of the a vast proportion of the land use of the city, economies. center and intervention by the Lebanese state. from so-called farmhouses to shopping I am interested then in how we can From schools to health clinics to micro­ malls, violates some planning or building ­understand the inevitable heterogeneity of finance institutions to Jihad al-Binaa (or law, such that much of the construction in Southern urbanism, that which cannot be “Jihad for construction”), Hezbollah’s al- the city can be viewed as “unauthorized.” contained within the familiar metonymic Dahiya demonstrates how the periphery is a But while the law has come to designate categories of megacity or slum. How can we “potentially generative space – a source of slums as “nuisance” and the residents of produce a different worlding of the cities of innovation and adaptation … potentially slums as a “secondary category of citizens,” the global South and thus more broadly of destabilizing of the center.” the illegal and informal developments of the the 21st century metropolis? Yet the periphery is also a space of rule, urban middle classes and the urban elite With this in mind, I want to briefly dis- one where Hezbollah seeks to implement have come to be sanctioned by the state as cuss four emergent concepts that I believe norms of civic governmentality and a vision the making of urban futures.

38 Economic and Urban Development Our Common Future I am arguing then that it is often through made visible the South City complex as But the zone of exception that most cap- informality and illegality that, in India, the “towers of violation,” thereby presenting a tures my attention is Shenzhen. Shenzhen world-class city is produced. This is the challenge to elite informality and calling after all is not only one of China’s first Spe- story of evictions and displacement, the into question the criminalization of subal- cial Economic Zones, it is also the “world’s sheer dispossession of peasants, slum dwell- tern informality. workshop.” It is in Shenzhen’s factories that ers, squatters, sharecroppers that is at work the world’s favorite commodities – from in the carving out of new towns, special eco- Zones of Exception iPods to iPhones – are churned out. This nomic zones, and urban-industrial enclaves. I have suggested that the concept of urban assembly line is usually invisible to us except But it is also the bold aspirations of what is informality denotes fractal geometries of at rare occasions when the invisible workers, increasingly designated, at least in India and metropolitan habitation and that these are whose labor makes possible our cosmo- China, as the Asian century, the sense that quite different analytics than those that are politan lifestyles, become visible. This hap- the future belongs to Asian economic pow- concerned with the bounded slum and its pened a few years ago when a Shenzhen erhouses. In this self-referential imagination, ontologies. A similar spatial theory is pro- migrant worker, completing the assembly of world-class Asian cities compete with one vided by the work of Berkeley socio-cultur- an iPhone, left a photograph of herself on another. Mumbai is imagined as the next al anthropologist Aihwa Ong on zones the phone. Dressed in a pink-and-white Shanghai, inevitably slum-free. Singapore of exception. Ong studies “market-driven striped uniform, smiling, making a peace circulates as a frame of success. ­strategies of spatial fragmentation,” tracing sign, she came to be known simply as Dubai, in particular, serves as the dream ­patterns of “non-contiguous, differently “iPhone girl.” image of an Asian hyper-urbanism. Bill- ­administered spaces of graduated or varie- Shenzhen reminds us that zones of ex- boards lining the streets of Delhi, and pho- gated sovereignty,” what she calls zones of ception are not only spatial configurations, tographed by Berkeley urban sociologist exception. From special economic zones to but also distinctive temporalities. Widely Gautam Bhan, mark the partnership be- special administrative regions, these zones celebrated in Shenzhen is the idea of Shen- tween Indian and Dubai property capital both fragment and extend the space of the zhen Speed, a phrase that refers to the city’s and read: “Burj Dubai, the World’s tallest nation-state. Such zoning practices have incredible pace of growth – from about tower. The only thing taller is our dream for been particularly visible in China, where 25,000 people in 1980 to nearly 14 million India.” I want to emphasize that such forma- liberalization has coincided with “zone people in 2010. But the phrase also suggests tions of urban meaning must be understood ­fever.” George Lin thus reports that the thou- that “no other place or time has experienced as mass dreams, those claimed by middle- sands of Chinese zones together cover a the transformations that have characterized class consumer citizens who are seeking territory that exceeds total urban built-up this city.” In Shenzhen today, the revolution “leisure, safety, aesthetics, and health.” But area in China. Indeed, one may ask: In a ter- is urban. Everywhere there is construction; such mass dreams are also subject to con- ritory where zones of exception proliferate, everywhere the new becomes old; every- testation and informality is an important what then is the city? where factories and paddy fields give way to axis of such contestation. This question becomes poignant in a condominiums and malls; everywhere fast- Take, for example, Quarter no. 4/11 in setting like Dubai, where the entire city itself speed infrastructure inhabits the city. All Kolkata. Occupied by one single person, can be understood as a free trade zone, a that is solid melts into air. French cultural Shambhu Prasad Singh, this factory quarter speculative frontier was the last hold out in a tract of factory of state capitalism “Mass dreams, claimed by land that had been converted into the city’s disguised as free en- middle-class consumer citizens upscale South City retail and residential terprise, an ambi- complex. The workers were evicted from tious remaking of the who are seeking 'leisure, safety, their living quarters with no prior notice and relationship between aesthetics and health.'” with meager compensation. Shambhu Pras- city and nature – ad Singh refused to make way. For a while, through islands in the sea, underwater theorist Paul Virilio had once noted that “No with the towers of South City rising around hotels, and the transformation of the desert politics are possible at the scale of the speed him, he was the blockade. Soon it became into mega-development. Such free enter- of light.” In the 21st century metropolis, evident that the South City complex had prise zones are also of course, paradoxically, what politics are possible at the speed of been built in violation of environmental laws zones of bonded labor. Dubai’s towers rise light? and through the enclosure of some of south- on the backs of South Asian workers hoping In 2010, a series of suicides have plagued ern Kolkata’s largest water bodies. For a mo- to make their own futures in this 21st cen- Shenzhen factories, including Foxconn, the ment, Shambhu Prasad Singh’s blockade tury metropolis. world’s biggest contract electronics supplier.

39 The deaths have been seen as a symbol of hoods Act,” it is a bold assertion of state Ysidro, perhaps the busiest international the dark side of Shenzhen Speed: Migrant intrusion, of the police state. Aimed at wip- border crossing in the world. The horse ap- workers working 11-hour overnight shifts, ing out undocumented immigration, the law peared seemingly out of nowhere, straddled seven nights a week, forging plastic and initially required police to determine the the border with two legs resting on the US metal into electronics parts amid fumes and immigration status of those detained, side and the two other legs on the Mexican dust, living eight to a room in cramped dor- stopped, or arrested. side. One head looked north, the other mitories. The suicides have been seen as the Arizona’s law is an example of a firmly looked south. And after a while it vanished. symbol of a new generation of workers un- territorialized and racialized framework of Californian architect Teddy Cruz writes of willing to make unending sacrifice for the citizenship, one that erodes understandings the performance: Chinese economic miracle, a part of a rap- of urban citizenship based on cosmopolitan- “The Trojan Horse was the fragile ‘anti- idly changing context of labor strikes and ism and difference. In this sense it marks the monument’ […] It reminds us that the con- mobilizations. After all Shenzhen too is a end of the idea of the city. The Arizona law temporary city is still able to elude the mass dream, the place where China’s peas- is also an example of ants come to make an urban future. But it the border, the global “Arizona's law is an example of a turns out that such a future must be negoti- border. It is a remaking firmly territorialized and racialized ated through what African philosopher and of the US-Mexico bor- political scientist Achille Mbembe has called der, the world’s most framework of citizenship.” necropolitics, the politics of life and death. policed border, in the heart of cities and absolute ordering devices that attempt to In the 21st century metropolis, zones of ex- towns. It is the making of all neighborhoods render it homogeneous and one-dimension- ception then are where the making of urban as border neighborhoods. It is the creation al […] that the most derelict and unexpected subjects is evident. of a series of gray spaces that remain sus- places have the potential to become sites for pended between legality and illegality, be- light occupations that challenge the massive Gray Spaces tween safety and destruction. colonization of traditional urbanism.” In his provocative and haunting work on the Gray spaces proliferate in the 21st cen- For me, the 21st century metropolis is a Bedouins of the Israeli Negev, political ge- tury city. But gray space is also the terrain space that requires both critique and hope. ographer Oren Yiftachel describes “gray of politics. I am interested in the technolo- The 21st century metropolis is a space that spaces” as “those positioned between the gies of crossing that can disrupt the social far exceeds the boundaries of the slum. Bet- ‘whiteness’ of legality/approval/safety, and legislation of fear and thus the securitization ter understood as peripheries, zones of ex- the ‘blackness’ of eviction/destruction/ of space. At the global border, artists in par- ception, gray spaces, and urban informality, ticular have experimented the 21st century is made up of fractal ge- “The horizon of urbanism is no with technologies of cross- ometries of metropolitan habitation. The longer in New York ... but in the ing. These experiments are 21st century is time at the speed of light and global South.” perhaps visible symbols of it is also dialectics at a standstill. the everyday (and extraordi- But most importantly, the 21st century death.” He notes that these spaces are toler- nary) practices of border crossing, through is a terrain of politics. The fractal geometries ated and managed but “while being encaged which this space is lived and negotiated. of the contemporary city also constitute the within discourses of ‘contamination,’ ‘crim- Such ruptures are evident in the work of the grounds for negotiated subjectivities, con- inality,’ and ‘public danger’ to the desired transnational art project, inSITE. Taking tested spaces, and claims to the urban future. ‘order of things.’” place at various venues along the San In this sense the 21st century metropolis To illuminate this final concept of gray ­Diego-Tijuana border, inSITE performs may just be, to borrow Erre’s allegory, a spaces, let me take a closer look at social transient pieces of art in places where art is ­Trojan Horse. landscapes in America, and especially at the not typically exhibited. Each performance gray space that is the global border. In Amer- punctures the global border and weaves a This is a condensed version of a speech ica, the spring of 2010 saw the gathering new transnational fabric of meaning and given at the OCF conference’s session storm of the “Tea Party” movement, a con- habitation. Each performance transforms on Metropolis. More can be found at servative fury against Big Government and gray space into political space. www.ourcommonfuture.de/roy its purported failures. As spring rolled over For example, in 1997, Marcos Ramírez into summer, so in the border state of Ari- Erre, a Tijuana artist, rolled an enormous zona, a new law was passed. Titled “Support Janus-headed Trojan Horse into the middle Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighbor- of traffic waiting to cross the border at San

40 Economic and Urban Development Our Common Future Urban Future

Suketu Mehta is a professor of literary reportage at New York University and the author of Maximum City: Bombay Lost and Found, published in 2004. He grew up in Mumbai and New York and is at work on a book about immigrants in contemporary New York.

“Mumbai is probably a better predictor of the future than New York.”

The future is urban: The number of city In your book Maximum City you write And in many of these cities there is a tre- dwellers is forecast to reach five billion by that Mumbai (formerly known as Bombay) mendous amount of squalor, of people liv- 2030, and already exceeds half of the is the future of urban civilization. But to ing on the streets. But there are also windows world’s population. Kolkata-born Suketu many Westerners, parts of Mumbai seem of opportunity and islands of tremendous Mehta, author of the award-winning book medieval. There are people working, sleep- wealth. If you look closely, you will realize Maximum City and a speaker at the OCF ing and defecating on the streets. Is that that the First and the Third World are no conference, understands better than most the future of cities? Squalor in ever increas- longer separated around the globe. They why some cities succeed where others fail ing amounts? coexist in places like Mumbai and also, sur- and why many migrants see them as places Mehta: The world is going to be dominated prisingly, in places like New York: I have been of hope, and not despair. In an interview, by these megacities of the South, more than to tenements in Chinatown, just 15 minutes Mehta talked about the future of the city. the established cities of the richer world. from where I live, where 15 migrant workers

46 Economic and Urban Development Our Common Future cram into one room. But in terms of abso- Detroit or Duisburg could benefit from nities. If you look at a New York City restau- lute numbers, Mumbai is probably a better large-scale immigration? rant for example, the chef might be French, predictor of the future than New York. Mehta: There needs to be a critical mass of the people washing dishes might be Mexican, Most people who migrate to cities end up people that sustains a city. It seems that big the hostess might be Russian, the taxi driver in slums. Why would you leave the coun- cities get even bigger. If there are 20 million bringing the customers might be Pakistani, tryside, where you can enjoy a clean envi- people in Mumbai, then the villager in dis- the owner British or Canadian. They are not ronment, for the suffocating lack of space tant Bihar thinks, ‘These 20 million people all equal. They earn different rates. But they in a place like Lagos or Mumbai? must know something, so I’m going to go work together. It’s like the Hindu caste sys- Mehta: Well, you and I don’t like slums be- join them.’ In the United States the cities that tem. Everybody has their place. What I know cause we look at them and we see overcrowd- are stagnating resemble Detroit and Balti- of Europe is that in cities which are experi- ing and squalor. But for the people that come more – places that don’t have a lot of diver- encing problems, single ethnicities tend to in from the countryside, there are three main sity in terms of ethnicity or that have tied dominate. There’s also much less opportu- things that draw them to the cities: One is themselves to a single industry. But cities nity for people coming in. If you ask Indians economic opportunity, because even in the like New York, which actively encourage im- whether they would rather live in Europe or worst job they can make much more than migration, are doing better than ever before. in America, most of them would still choose Ethnicity belongs to these in- the United States. There’s still an escalator “Human beings, as a species, tangibles that are difficult to here where an Indian engineer can come in like to live in colonies. We are measure in economic terms. and soon have a house and feed a family. The But many of the software en- United States have a much more fluid vision not solitary animals who live in gineers and designers, and the of what it is to be American. It would be more caves. We are more like ants.” creative class that make cities difficult for a Turk to feel completely German. attractive want a choice of Both cities you’ve lived in, New York and they could as an agricultural worker. The different kinds of food, of different kinds of Mumbai, have suffered severe attacks by second is a sense of personal freedom. For music. They are widely traveled and don’t Muslim fundamentalists. What makes people trapped in the caste system, or in want to eat sausages every evening. They these two cities so hated by terrorists? traditions of an African village, the idea that also like to eat peanut stew and bhelpuri. So Mehta: I think that the terrorists see both you can go into a city and remake your own ethnic diversity can revitalize these old in- New York and Mumbai as Sodom and life and marry a person of your choice is dustrial cities across the richer countries. Gomorrah. The openness of these cities is tremendously appealing. The third is the How does New York cope so well with di- deeply threatening to people who believe that romantic possibility of cities. Human beings, versity? And why do cities in Europe strug- God likes some people and not others. Also, as a species, like to live in colonies. We are gle so much with immigration? they’re the economic capitals of their coun- not solitary animals who live in caves. We Mehta: I can only speak about why New tries. And in both cases, the terrorists hoped are more like ants. In America, after the Sec- York does so well: Because no one ethnicity that they would set off a civil war. But it didn’t ond World War, it seemed like suburbs were dominates. That’s very important. I grew­ happen: Most of the attacks on Arabs – or the answer. You’d come into the city when up in New York’s Jackson you were single, you’d find a mate, then Heights, which is the most “The openness of these cities you’d go and settle with your kids in the ethnically diverse place in the is deeply threatening to people suburbs. But today, people are staying in United States. There are American cities and making a go of it. There South Americans, South who believe that God likes are lots of attractions: Opera, sports stadi- Asians, East Asians, South- some people and not others.” ums, being able to walk around, being able east Asians, Uzbeks – you to eat many different kinds of food, being name it. So no one community gets blamed Sikhs who were mistaken for Arabs – after close to your job. In richer countries suburbs for a lot of trouble. In New York, Mexicans 9/11 happened in places like Arizona, not in are fading in significance the way farms are are the fastest growing group of people, but New York. fading in the poor countries. they too find a place in the “caste system” of But there are second-tier cities that are New York. The immigrants who come here More can be found at actually shrinking. Do you think cities like don’t automatically find jobs and opportu- www.suketumehta.com

47 Global Young Faculty Project “Essen/Istanbul"

The Complexity of Ethnic Diversity: A Tale of Two Cities

Recently named the world’s most dynam- ­Faculty have spent much of 2010 looking at thorities and developers to put pressure on ic city by the Brookings Institution in a range of topics, including how religious elements they perceive as being undesirable, Washington, Istanbul is a city on the rise. and cultural diversity is highlighted and in a way that hasn’t happened in Essen. In 2010, it shared the designation of Euro- dealt with in both Istanbul and Essen. In Istanbul, members of the city’s Kurd- pean Cultural Capital with Essen, another To begin with, both cities have celebrat- ish minority and members of the less privi- city with surprising dynamism. Separated ed 2010 as proud European Cultural Capi- leged classes have come under intense by a wide cultural and geographic gap, the tals, helping build naturally strong cultural pressure in the face of gentrification and two metropolises still have much in com- linkages. Secondly, they are cities undergoing urban regeneration. Sometimes they have mon. As part of the Global Young Faculty, a sustained period of urban regeneration. been forced to move to entirely new neigh- a group of young researchers from the Lastly, the two cities have a long history of borhoods to allow development projects to Ruhr area examined the problems of inte- ethnic and cultural interconnectedness due take place. gration and urban renewal that bring these to immigration from Istanbul to Germany’s “The main issues in Istanbul are class cities together. Ruhrgebiet. That is, perhaps, most obvious issues and the ways in which the Kurdish in the Ruhr area’s ethnic makeup, which is minority group is being marginalized,” says Can one really compare Essen and today among Germany’s most diverse. About Salzbrunn. “The very idea of urban regen- ­Istanbul? At first glance, the differences be- 12 percent of the city’s population of 600,000 eration provides a way for authorities to tween the two cities seem vast and difficult call themselves immigrants. sweep away minority communities.” to bridge. After all, Essen is in Germany, a One thing the group discovered is that, And while both cities portray themselves country that has long been recognized as despite these facts, politicians in the Ruhrge- as modern metropolises, sometimes people fundamentally European, while Istanbul is biet aren’t promoting the region’s ethnic with little social or economic capital fall the economic capital of Turkey – a land that diversity as much as they should. “It’s sur- through the cracks, failing to be heard literally straddles the line between East and prising that it is not being put forward among the voices of the powerful. “Cities West, Europe and Asia. enough, in our opinion. What you’ve heard need to put forward their diversity or inter- But perhaps there are more similarities this year is about the cultural richness of the nationality as an asset, because it is one,” says than we think, says Monika Salzbrunn, a region and the industrial creativity. But the Salzbrunn, whose research has touched on professor at the Université de Lausanne in ethnic diversity in all its complexity is hard- topics ranging from gender relations to Switzerland, who has written several publi- ly being discussed,” Salzbrunn says. transnational social spaces. “All kinds of cations exploring transnational and migra- Another interesting discovery is that people in Essen and Istanbul have proven tion issues. She and the other members of progress toward urban regeneration in their capacity for success. We all need to the economics group of the Global Young ­Istanbul has recently provided a way for au- recognize that.”

49 Urban Planning China's With 1.3 billion people, China is the most unique niches in cities repairing bicycles or populous country in the world. It is also selling food to both the rich and poor. home to some of the globe’s fastest growing Problems, Iossifova argues out that the dynamic cities. Architect and urban planning expert and constantly shifting nature of large Deljana Iossifova says that what may ­Chinese cities like Shanghai make them per- look to outsiders like unbridled chaos Chinese fect fodder for experimentation in how to in China’s urban spaces is ­actually a pro- solve the problems our world will face in ductive mix of class and ­enterprise. Talking Solutions the ­future. to fellow participants in the OCF workshop Yet the Chinese model isn’t right for on participative urban development, everyone. One of the things that has made Iossifova warned that Chinese-style urban it so interesting for urban planners is the planning models might not be a good fit political system, which allows officials to for other places. make sweeping changes without interference by various groups of stakeholders. When it China is undergoing one of the most comes to making rapid decisions, central dramatic demographic revolutions the planning accelerates the process. world has ever seen. In the last thirty years, As problematic as that is for advocates more than a quarter of the Asian giant’s of participatory democracy, from a purely population has moved from farms and small urban planning point of view it might be villages in the countryside to booming cities seen as an opportunity. “There are major like Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai, and Wu- possibilities tied to the specific political han. And the trend shows no sign of slowing. structure of the country which makes it pos- Over the next 20 years, 15 to 20 million peo- sible to change the ways in which the built ple each year will flood into Chinese cities. environment is produced and appropriated,” All those new city dwellers will need Iossifova says. places to live and work, making China the Yet the autocratic urban planning system world’s biggest de facto urban planning lab- at work in China can be a double-edged Deljana Iossifova, born in 1977, oratory. Experts estimate that more than sword. Some of these experiments are ­already is a research fellow at the University 1,500 skyscrapers will be built in China an- of Westminster and teaches architecture threatening the things that make ­Chinese nually for decades to come; dozens of ­Chinese and urban design at the University ­cities so unique. As a new middle class has cities will need mass transport systems. Chi- of ­Nottingham. sprung up in cities around China, many poor na is faced with a tremendous challenge: It inner-city residents are being displaced to must build the equivalent of one Chicago- hai,” Iossifova says. “But I found the reality make way for urban redevelopment projects sized city each year for the next two decades. is different.” She found one constant in the directed by the Chinese state, erasing the vi- This heady mix of challenge and oppor- Chinese urban environment: Forced class brant mixed neighborhoods Iossifova found tunity was one reason Bulgarian-born archi- coexistence, created largely because of inter- when she first came to Shanghai. tect Deljana Iossifova, a research fellow at the nal migration from the countryside to the It’s clear to OCF-fellow Iossifova that the School of Architecture and the Built Environ- cities. By observing how Shanghai neighbor- Chinese model won’t work for everyone, and ment at the United Kingdom’s University of hoods changed over the course of many probably shouldn’t. “A city that functions Westminster, worried about what she would years, Iossifova discovered that the rich, the within one particular cultural, ecological or find when she journeyed to Shanghai, China, middle class and the poor live side by side geographical context may be a complete about four years ago to research how city in the new, rapidly urbanizing China. catastrophe when you try to reproduce it dwellers were grappling with rapid change in The close quarters mean people of dif- someplace else,” she says. “I think we should their urban environment. ferent income levels must work together to get away from the idea that there can be “I started off thinking there is this very find solutions to existing problems and perfect solutions. You have to look at every scary fragmentation and segregation be- somehow be of service to each other. Rural- city by itself and try to find solutions for tween different classes of people in Shang- to-urban migrants, for instance, have found every case.”

50 Economic and Urban Development Our Common Future Transmitting Development Radio's Role In countries with little or no communica- But the core of the Smallholders Foun- tions infrastructure, radio isn’t just a form dation is its radio programming. Almost of entertainment. It’s also a way to distrib- in Ending everyone in Nigeria has a radio, meaning ute information on new farming tech- broadcasting over the airwaves is the most niques far and wide. Nnaemeka Ikegwuonu, effective way to reach rural workers – many founder of Smallholders Farmers Rural Rural of whom have had limited formal education. Radio in Nigeria, contributed to a work- The radio programs, mostly designed shop at the Our Common Future confer- Poverty and produced by farmers themselves, cover ence’s session on Economic Development basic business skills and offer advice on com- about radio’s critical role in lifting farmers mon issues in the agricultural sector, such out of poverty. as how to deal with erosion as well as the safest and most effective pesticides and fer- Growing up in a rural part of Nigeria’s tilizers. Perhaps the most interesting aspect Imo state, Nnaemeka Ikegwuonu spent of the project, however, is its emphasis on much of his childhood tending to cattle and interactivity. The Smallholders Foundation other farming tasks. distributes solar-powered devices to listener So the 29-year-old Ikegwuonu, who groups, allowing them to provide voice feed- holds bachelor degrees in history and inter- back that gets sent directly to radio broad- national relations and a master’s degree in casters. Their listeners’ advice and ideas are cooperation and development, knows the then broadcast during radio programming challenges faced by rural Nigerian agricul- for other farmers to learn from. tural workers firsthand. Ikegwuonu sees his work as a simple “It’s a difficult life. Many people have model others in the global South can follow knowledge that could help others by, for to promote productivity, while ensuring that instance, improving efficiency. But it’s hard local people have a strong participatory to spread the information around,” he says. voice. The Smallholders Foundation model The solution? In 2003, at the age of 21, may be particularly effective in countries like Nnaemeka Ikegwuonu, Ikegwuonu created a unique organization Nigeria and Uganda, where many people are born in 1982, is the director­ and called the Smallholders Foundation from founder of the Smallholders illiterate but have radios at their disposal. scratch. Its goal is to help build the capacity ­Foundation in Nigeria. Preliminary data shows that the founda- of the area’s burgeoning agricultural sector tion’s work has made a real impact. In some by offering information to improve produc- cases, farmers have seen a 50 percent increase tivity and efficiency and by creating a forum in output after listening and participating. where workers can share their knowledge And as he has overseen successes – he with others. has been given a prestigious Rolex Award Since, then, he has been running the or- for Enterprise, among other honors – Ikeg- ganization, making a living off the proceeds wuonu is excited about ambitious plans to and promoting its goals and achievements. “We have many people who are en- expand beyond the state’s borders to cover The need for the Smallholders Founda- trapped in poverty, and the only way to get all of Nigeria and eventually other countries, tion is particularly urgent because rural out of it is education,” Ikegwuonu says. “This such as Ghana. Right now the radio pro- workers in Nigeria have little access to fills the gap.” The organization, focused in grams have about 250,000 listeners. Ikeg- knowledge transmitted through technology southeast Nigeria’s Imo state, where nearly wuonu envisions millions listening, the rest of the world takes for granted, like 3 million people work in the agricultural participating and improving their lives. the Internet or television. This makes it al- sector, offers a range of services, from live “I am ready to replicate this all over,” he most impossible for farmers to learn cut- demonstrations of the latest technologies in says. “I want people to know that there are ting-edge techniques that could improve crop cultivation to establishing school individuals making a difference throughout crop quality or yield. ­gardens at primary and secondary schools. Africa.”

51 Talking about Migration

“You cannot fulfill or empower all of your people in a country

of 1.3 billion.” Rumin Luo

“The traditional ways of doing politics have to change.” Ludger Pries

52 Economic and Urban Development Our Common Future Migration isn’t what it used to be. The Is the rural-urban dynamic replacing the ­familiar scenes of workers flooding from border in migration? poorer countries to work in richer ones are Pries: It is not rural, urban or internation- increasingly a thing of the past, as the flows al, but thoroughly mixed. In the US case, it and currents of migration become steadi- is traditionally rural Mexico to urban Unit- ly more complex. At the OCF conference, ed States. But if you look at California right renowned German sociologist Ludger now, immigrants are going from urban ar- Pries and the young Chinese migrant – and eas in Mexico to rural areas in California to immigration scholar – Rumin Luo came pick strawberries. together for an inter-generational dialogue How can politicians best address these on what the future has in store for migrants changing types of migration? Rumin Luo, born and their destinations. Pries: I think if migration gets much more in1980, is a PhD candidate at Bielefeld complicated then the traditional ways of How important are national borders University's Graduate ­doing politics have to change. We have to for migrants today? School in ­History and develop procedural mechanisms to help Pries: I lived in Mexico for six years, and Sociology and a visit- people to organize themselves. The Chinese ing researcher at Bos- did a lot of empirical research on Mexican state will not be able to manage and control ton University. Born in migration to the United States. That was a China, she earned her all the tensions and problems arising from relatively simple case. But now we cannot bachelor’s degree at internal and international migration. One easily distinguish between internal and in- the China Agricultural lesson for me is we have to invite people to ternational migration, as we could in the University in Beijing. organize and to participate in resolving their past. Both are completely intertwined. We problems. see this in the case of China: There is a huge Does that mean more democracy? volume of Chinese people who are internal Pries: More democracy, more participation. migrants, more than 200 million people each We have to invite people to participate year. But we also have a lot of influx into so they are part of the solution, not the China right now, from surrounding coun- ­problem. tries like Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos, Luo: In some ways I cannot fully agree with which is a relatively new phenomenon. And you. China is really facing these problems, we have a lot of outflow migration from but China is still a developing country. You China to other countries. Patterns of migra- cannot fulfill or empower all of your people tion are getting more and more complex and in a country of 1.3 billion. It’s true, China entangled with other aspects of transnation- has many high-skilled international mi- alism and globalization. grants, and if we go back to China we may Luo: I totally agree. In the past people talked bring new ideas – but they should be incor- about illegal or undocumented immigrants, porated into the current policy framework. like the ones headed to the United States. Pries: My argument was not liberalization from Mexico. But this phenomenon is very and leaving the state out of this. States are similar to what’s going on in the Chinese very crucial. If we look at states which were domestic case, where we have the special successful in the last 30 years, it was always Ludger Pries is a soci- household registration system that tries to the ones with strong states – like China. ologist specializing in control migration to urban areas. When I migration, participation There needs to be a combination of the state look at how people integrate into urban and transnationalism and civil society institutions. ­areas in China, I learn a lot from the case of at the Ruhr University Luo: All of the countries are improving gov- Mexican immigrants – in China we’re also Bochum. ernance and management, but we need to trying to determine whether to empower work out the process. It’s not a problem we migrants who come to urban areas. can solve in one day. 53 Impressions from the conference.

54 Economic and Urban Development Our Common Future 4 Questions, 8 Answers

“What fact makes you the most optimistic about our ­common future?" Klasen: The world in 2000 was a very divided place. We had the rich and the rest. Now Africa, China and Latin America are seeing dynamic growth. We live in a world where people’s lives are better than they have been for a long time. Kreibich: Human ingenuity. I think people will be able to overcome the problems political institutions are creating for us through new inventions and organizational resources.

“What is the greatest challenge facing us in the next 25 years?" Klasen: There are still islands of chaos and bad governance. In 2000, these conflicts were the majority. Now they are the minority but they could flare up again. Kreibich: We need to control the increasing consumption and exploitation of natural resources by segments of the world’s population.

“What piece of advice would you give young researchers in your field today?" Klasen: Economic development researchers need to think beyond the paradigm that the North gives aid and the South receives it. We now live in a multipolar world. We need to, for example, learn about South-South social protection programs like those spreading from Latin America to Africa. Kreibich: Don’t separate yourself from practical issues and normal life. In our discipline, the nexus between academic research and urban development should be very close, even in our own individual lives.

“What was the most surprising insight you had at this conference?" Klasen: I was very impressed by the African policy makers at the conference. Their world has changed completely. They have steered their countries towards a much brighter future recently. But they are also unsure whether the good times will last and so they want to create smart, cautious economic policy.

Kreibich: It was interesting to see what was going on in the neighboring disciplines, but I would have provided more opportunity for dialogue.

Stephan Klasen and Volker Kreibich served as scientific advisors for the OCF sessions on Economic and Urban Development. Klasen is a professor of development economics and empirical economic research at the University of Göttingen, where he also heads the Ibero-American Institute. Kreibich was, until his retirement in 2005, professor of spatial planning in developing countries at TU Dortmund University.

55 Global Health and Molecular Medicine Introduction

Every year, human life expectancy in- regulation as to how care is distributed, and need to talk across specialties and conti- creases. More sophisticated technology, the aid that comes is sometimes delivered nents. The OCF conference was an oppor- better nutrition and greater access to care by international agencies without a clear tunity for participants to look past the all contribute that people in many regions focus or ability to connect with local popu- boundaries of their expertise and day-to-day of the world having a chance of staying lations. work: Policy makers talked with doctors on healthier longer. This should be great news. “We have to help politicians on a na- new strategies to care for quickly aging But with greater longevity comes a different tional and international level to remember populations. Epidemiologists and develop- set of problems. Our bodies now have more that many countries do not have adequate ment specialists crafted solutions for people years to manifest diseases in new ways. medical services,” says Axel Haverich, head who die long before their time because of Older people not only need treatment for of Cardiothoracic, Transplant and Vascular poverty and preventable disease. Represent- chronic illnesses and conditions, but also Surgery at Hanover Medical School. “There atives of large health agencies sought the more intensive care every day. Treatment needs to be more equal access in places like help of grassroots players to better under- has to be carefully coordinated and fi- Africa, South America, and China.” stand the differing needs of populations in nanced. While health care in the developing On the other hand, for people living in different regions. world is still unable to meet basic expecta- developed countries there are promising “Interdisciplinary meetings are difficult tions, the global North is already striving cures on the horizon. A stem cell expert says to conduct but they are what is needed now,” to develop ways to reshape its health care that pioneering therapies may dramatic- says Karl Rudolph, Director of the Institute system to deal with demographic changes ally alter outcomes for some of our most of Molecular Medicine at the University of to come. pernicious diseases, like diabetes. Under- Ulm and, like Haverich, scientific advisor for As participants at the OCF conference standing our genetic building blocks better the sessions on Global Health. “We need to made clear, in developing countries the great could help turn back our bodies’ clocks. discuss not only basic aspects of science but killers are still present. People living in eco- Targeted cancer treatments might delay or also look at social impact in different areas nomically and politically fragile regions of even defeat the full impact of the disease. of the world.” Only through collaborative ef- Africa and Asia are often denied medicine The sessions’ scientific advisors and nu- forts can medicine make the progress we need and preventive care. AIDS, infectious dis- merous speakers emphasized that to con- to offer people better, sometimes longer and eases and the lack of basic nutrition stalk tinue making progress at both the macro often more comfortable lives. people young and old. There is often little and molecular level in medicine, people

58 Global Health and Molecular Medicine Our Common Future

25,000people in the European Union die because of a serious resistant bacterial infection each year.

of Africans live in villages or communities with inadequate or no sanitary 75% facilities. 20,000–30,000 genes are in the human genome, coding for up to 500,000 proteins. 3,000,000 people would not die from diarrheal diseases each year if they had access to safe drinking water. 9,000,000 children worldwide under the age of 5 die every year, most from easily preventable causes.

59 Life Expectancy

A Graying World

“The average person will be living longer than ever before.”

Colin D. Mathers is a senior scien- tist at the World Health Organiza- tion in Geneva. He works in the Evidence and Information for Policy Cluster.

60 Global Health and Molecular Medicine Our Common Future both declined dramatically, e.g. in Sweden lowest for sub-Saharan Africa, with around Development in human health is go- and other developed countries. a 30 percent decline over 20 years. Some ing through parallel transitions. As As a result, the population of developed regions have had declines of 60 or 70 percent richer countries begin to worry about dis- countries has aged dramatically, as in the since 1990. In most places, the risk of dying eases of old age, the developing world is case of Japan. Currently, around 22 percent under the age of 5 has been halved since pushing past the point where its primary of people in high-income countries are aged 1990. Still, the United Nation’s Millennium concern is child mortality and communica- over 60. By the middle of the century it’ll be Development Goal is to have a 75 percent ble disease. Will we ever live in a world where around 30 percent. The transition will be decrease by 2015, and the world is not going everyone can hope to live to old age? Colin even more dramatic in developing countries. to achieve that, although some countries and Mathers, a senior scientist for the World Today, around 7 or 8 percent of the popula- regions will. Health Organization, shed some light on tion of developing countries is over 60. By Maternal mortality is also dropping. Af- this question at one of the OCF sessions on 2050, it’s projected to rise to around 20 per- rica, India, and parts of Asia still have dra- ­Global Health. cent. That’s similar to the developed coun- matically higher maternal mortality rates than tries today, but with a steeper curve and the rest of the world. India alone accounts for more difficult transition as a result. more than a quarter of the world’s maternal According to our best estimates, there’s The developing world is undergoing mortality deaths, for example. In developed been a dramatic increase in life expectancy what scholars in the 1970s first described as countries, however, maternal mortality is so in all regions of the world since 1950. In an epidemiological transition, or a charac- low that it’s essentially nonexistent – take high-income countries, it’s gone from a bit teristic evolution of mortality that has been Australia, for example, which has 10 or 15 over 60 years to around 80 years when you observed in different average male and female life expectancies regions of the world. “Child mortality is on the decline together. In low-income countries, it’s much Initially, populations lower – life expectancy has gone from are at risk of dying all over the world, according to the around 40 years in 1950 to close to 60 years from infectious dis- latest analysis of global trends.” today. These statistics can be a bit deceptive, eases and related dis- of course: Average life expectancy at birth eases like under-nutrition, high levels of deaths per year, each of which is obviously takes into account the impact of infant-child maternal mortality and high levels of child very carefully looked at individually. mortality, early adult mortality and mortal- mortality due to poor birth conditions. As HIV obviously has had a dramatic im- ity at older ages. That means when a coun- societies develop, the risk of death from in- pact on global health, and particularly Afri- try’s average life expectancy is 40, the fections and those maternal and child causes can health and mortality. In parts of Africa, statistic includes a lot of people who die in diminishes dramatically, and the risk of there have been significant reductions of life their first year of life as well as those who death from degenerative diseases rises. In expectancy due to HIV of 20 years or more. live longer. part, that’s because people are living through But our best estimates now are that the I’m not going to dwell on the demo- the younger ages and so they’re getting to epidemic, at least in global terms, appears graphic transition, but rather explore the older age, where the accumulated damage to have peaked and is on the decline. Part of epidemiological transition from high mor- results in degenerative diseases – in particu- that is associated with antiretroviral therapy, tality to low mortality and the associated lar, cardiovascular disease, cancer and res- which keeps people alive much longer. Wide- transition from high fertility rates to low piratory disease. The age balance of the spread antiretroviral coverage may well be fertility rates. The combination of these two population changes as well, as more people also impacting incidents in that it reduces phenomena leads to a dramatic shift in the make it to old age thanks to a decline in com- the viral load and reduces the risk of trans- population age structure. The difference municable diseases. mission. So if you have everyone on antiret- between Yemen, where 44 percent of the rovirals, even if they’re not practicing safe population is under 15, and Japan, where Impacts on Mortality sex, you will reduce the epidemic. only 13 percent are, is very striking in terms Child mortality – the risk of dying under When it comes to tuberculosis, there have of the age distribution of the population. the age of five – is on the decline all over the been major efforts to scale up coverage with Over the past few centuries, there have world, according to the latest analysis of “directly observed short-course therapy”, also been dramatic declines in both child and global trends in child mortality from known as DOTS. These efforts have had some adult mortality in developed countries. UNICEF and the WHO. The trend has var- impact, but have been slower than antici- More people are living to old age. Premature ied across all regions, and in fact in terms of pated, in part because tuberculosis is an op- adult mortality and child mortality have percentage decline, the decline is actually portunistic infection in HIV-positive people.

61 The high levels of HIV in Africa, therefore, narrowed? There are a number of new tech- of years, which will lead to a resurgence of have kept tuberculosis levels relatively high. nologies that may accelerate progress, some child deaths in Africa due to malaria. So, turning now to look at adult mortal- of them available primarily to the rich: Na- The projections essentially assume that ity or the causes of death and the levels of nobots will clean our bloodstream in the the risk trajectories in developing countries mortality risk for adults between 15 and 60, near future, and it’s reasonable to expect will be similar to what’s been seen in devel- there is a dramatically high death rate in Af- research breakthroughs on things like can- oped countries over the last 50 years. But if rica, which is to a large part due to HIV/AIDS cer, Alzheimer’s, and regeneration and reju- the risk trajectories in developing countries and other infectious diseases, not to mention venation technology. Such technology will end up being worse because they fail to con- hunger and malnutrition. In Europe, there benefit the rich, and will perpetuate the gap trol tobacco, alcohol, blood pressure, and remain gaps between the lower-middle in- between rich and poor in terms of health – other public health threats, things may well come countries of Europe, predominantly although if developing countries can learn be substantially worse than in high-income former Soviet countries, and their richer from the best of the experience of developed countries down the line. Already, the age- neighbors. Eastern Europe has the second- countries, maybe they can catch up. specific risks of cardiovascular death are highest level of premature adult mortality in On the other hand, climate change and higher in many middle-income countries the world, largely due to cardiovascular dis- environmental degradation ease and injuries. In Russia, for example, may have significant nega- “As diseases mutate and shift mortality rates due to cardiovascular disease, tive impacts. I’m involved in response to antibiotics ... injuries, and so on remain extremely high. with a WHO group trying there's a risk that we'll Whether there’s a political will to tackle those to model the health impacts at a population level in the short term re- of climate change. It’s really face new killer diseases.” mains to be seen. In South-East Asia, which hard to do. For example, some of the mod- than in high-income countries, in part be- is dominated by India, there are also reason- els are fairly simplistic: If temperature rises, cause of poorer health systems and uncon- ably high levels of infectious diseases. But then the malaria mosquito will start breed- trolled primary risk factors. other developing regions have largely passed ing, for example. Well, maybe. But maybe And there’s always the risk of new or through the epidemiological transition in not. I don’t think Switzerland will have a resurgent infectious diseases. The devastat- terms of the impact of communicable dis- malaria problem, however hot it gets, be- ing toll of HIV over the last three decades is eases, maternal diseases and other factors. cause the Swiss have lots of money and a warning on that front. As diseases mutate Most importantly, China and India are they’ll just kill the mosquitoes. It’s really an and shift in response to antibiotics and amongst the countries that will have passed issue of adaptation and the ability of socie- other countermeasures, there’s a risk that through this epidemiological transition. ties to adapt. And there are harder issues we’ll face new killer diseases – drug-resistant with climate change tuberculosis, for example – in the future. “It's reasonable to expect research around the extreme It is almost certain that the developing breakthroughs on things like cancer, climatic events, world will largely pass through the epide- which may severely miological transition and also contend with Alzheimer's, and regeneration and impact parts of Asia aging populations in which chronic condi- rejuvenation technology.” and elsewhere in tions dominate. This should not be seen as the form of heat a bad thing, since the average person will be China, in fact, already has. Its adult mortal- waves, diseases tied to floods, and other living longer and most likely with lower ity rates are lower than in parts of Eastern ­unpredictable forces. mortality risks than ever before. But such Europe, and child mortality also is quite low. For the time being, continued global optimistic trends may be offset to unknown As populations’ age and life expectancy ­financial instability is thought to be a blip on degrees by climate change, population and increases, we’re going to more intensely the horizon, having no long-term impact. resource pressures, and the potential emer- ­focus on the fatal and nonfatal diseases of Certainly, in the short term, it has had a sig- gence of new diseases. aging. Money will be rolling in for dementia nificant impact on the WHO and other in- research and for therapies to prevent damage ternational agencies’ abilities to fund some of This is a condensed version of a speech that leads to these diseases. their primary activities. The global fund for given at the OCF conference’s session on tuberculosis, malaria, and HIV have all had Global Health and Molecular Medicine. Narrowing the Gap significant shortfalls, partly due to the global More material can be found at Can the mortality gaps between developed financial crisis. That may translate directly www.ourcommonfuture.de/mathers and developing countries be substantially into a shortage of bed nets in the next couple

62 Global Health and Molecular Medicine Our Common Future Big Biology Fighting the Diseases of the Future “The revolution in information and

communication Rudi Balling is a German geneticist and director of the Luxembourg technology Centre for Systems Biomedicine. opens up new possibilities."

Infectious diseases have had a major This was, of course, premature, as we Infectious disease is one of the great- influence on the course of history. More than know by now. Today we are not only faced est threats facing the world in the once, the casualties in wars from infectious with newly emerging pathogens, i.e. HIV, decades to come: unpredictable, fast-mov- diseases outnumbered those from man- SARS or avian influenza, but also with ing, difficult to track, and potentially more made weapons. Up to the end of the 19th ­pathogens that we thought we had elimi- deadly than anything we’ve ever seen before. century, not much could be done. The de- nated, such as tuberculosis and malaria. The Rudi Balling, a German geneticist and direc- velopment of public health hygiene princi- most serious of all is the increase in antibi- tor of the Luxembourg Centre for Systems ples, the discovery of penicillin, and the otic resistance. Multi-resistant bacteria are Biomedicine, says the solutions to the epi- development of vaccines, however, have dra- now identified in many hospitals and even demics of the future are cooperation be- matically changed this. The public health in public places outside of hospitals. Our tween scientists and a holistic approach to measures were so efficient that in 1967 the antibiotics have started to fail and for many biology that accounts for the complexities Surgeon General of the United States of the viruses, i.e. HIV or hepatitis C virus of today’s world. ­declared the end of the era of infectious (HCV), we do not have any vaccine or ­diseases. ­efficient antiviral.

63 The consequences are very severe. Over than double what it is now. We can also have a strong effect on how effectively we the last 30 years, more than 25 million ­predict that as a result of our changing life- are ­infected, how quickly and efficiently we ­people have died from AIDS. Respiratory style, obesity and diabetes will rise. This is mount an immune response or whether we diseases and diarrheal infections have killed not only a problem for Western countries, become immune after a first infection. There more than 5 million people, most of them but also for many developing countries. are more than 20,000 genes in our genome, children, according to the WHO’s senior Unfortunately, it is much more difficult, coding for more than 100,000 proteins. The scientist Colin Mathers. The SARS epidem- if not impossible, to predict when and which result is a combinatorial explosion when we ic, which spread within a few weeks and infectious disease epidemic will hit. HIV was try to model and simulate the response of caused the shutdown of entire cities, such first discovered in 1981, but the infection infectious diseases to new drugs or vaccines. as Toronto, has demonstrated the vulnera- took off rapidly after that. SARS arrived bility of our society in times of high mobil- ­almost overnight, without any warning sig- Systems Biology ity. Today Boston, tomorrow Hong Kong or nal. Scientists had been warning of new Infectious diseases are the result of extreme- New Delhi, and back to Frankfurt, is not an influenza viruses for quite some time. ly complex interactions between two evolv- uncommon travel agenda for many people. ­Nevertheless, when the swine flu appeared in ing genomes, that of the host and that of the Viruses often travel along with these pas- Mexico and Califor- sengers. Whereas we enjoy our increased nia, the world was not “Systems biology not only looks mobility, the global nature of travel and prepared. This unpre- at components, but tries to business is one of the major drivers of global dictability and the infectious disease epidemics and pandemics. stochastic nature of address the characteristics of Our world is small and for infectious dis- infectious disease the entire system.” eases this means that it is easier for them to emergence are the spread. In addition to increased mobility, largest challenges that we face. This is some- pathogen. These interactions are strongly climate change has the potential to alter the what comparable to tsunamis or earthquakes. influenced by environmental factors, such distribution of infectious diseases on our There is an urgent need to come up with as nutrition or stressful situations. For this planet. As a result, malaria may spread into “early warning signals” that can better predict reason, knowing the components of a com- geographic areas where it was far too cold when and which pathogens might emerge. plex system such as an emerging infection for the parasite to survive. One of the most promising measures to is insufficient. The design and development At the same time that globalization in- cope with this uncertainty is the fostering of new vaccines or antivirals require an un- creases the chances of infectious disease of international relationships between sci- derstanding of the entire system, especially transmission, the revolution in information entists and other professionals. In many the topology and dynamics of the underly- and communication technology opens up cases, when political dialogue has broken ing molecular and cellular networks. It is new possibilities to fight infectious diseases. down or failed, scientists are still able to currently impossible to predict the behavior Today it is much easier to set up efficient maintain constructive relations. of a pathogen to evolutionary pressure, such surveillance programs, supporting early Some of the unpredictability can be re- as chemotherapy. countermeasures. We are faced with several duced through these international personal As a result of the Human Genome main challenges in our attempt to under- networks. They can lead to an increase in Project and the technological advances in stand, prevent and treat infectious diseases. the quality of infectious disease surveillance, DNA sequencing, transcriptome, proteome the speed of information flow from one and metabolome analysis, we have made Uncertainty continent to the other or the exchange of great progress in identifying most of the When we try to predict how many cancer, key information about the nature of a spe- components in the human body and impor- cardiovascular or neurodegenerative disease cific pathogen. Awareness helps to increase tantly of the pathogens that infect us. How- patients we will see in our hospitals 20 to 30 preparedness. ever, we are far away from understanding years from now the demographics of our the mechanisms of infectious disease patho- population does give us a fairly good esti- Complexity genesis. Without this understanding we can- mate. Many Western countries still enjoy an Almost all diseases are multifactorial and not expect to be able to design efficient drugs increasing life expectancy. This will be fol- multigenic in nature. It is well-known that that not only kill or slow down the pathogen, lowed by an increase in chronic age-related individual people can differ dramatically in but that also avoid the development of anti­ diseases. We already know that in two to their susceptibility or resistance to infectious biotic resistance. three decades the number of Alzheimer’s disease. According to British geneticist Biomedical research during the last 50 and Parkinson’s disease patients will be more ­Adrian Hill, our “genetic background” can years has succeed by focusing on increas-

64 Global Health and Molecular Medicine Our Common Future ingly smaller parts of the systems and by an Interdisciplinarity portunities in the biotechnological and attempt to reduce complexity by an ana- High-throughput functional genomics and biomedical area. lytical approach. We now realize that this genetics need to be combined with informa- As a result of the increasing efficiency in approach is limited if we want to understand tion technology, mathematics, computa- genomics, proteomics and metabolomics, and predict the behavior of entire multi- tional biology and engineering approaches. we are currently witnessing an explosion in scale emerging systems, such as those that It is a combination of experimental and the amount of data derived from biological we find in living organisms. Complex sys- theoretical approaches that will be necessary experiments and clinical research. This re- tems such as infectious diseases often show to describe, analyze, and predict the behav- quires the development of new bioinformat- a highly nonlinear behavior. It is for this ior of complex biological systems. Most ics tools. The challenge of data-rich biology reason that we now see a strong interest in biologists do not have adequate training in and medicine is not only in pattern recogni- systems ­biology. mathematics, statistics, or physics, all of tion, but becomes increasingly a problem in Systems biology not only looks at com- which are required for successful modeling data security, data handling and data archiv- ponents, but tries to address the characteris- and simulation of infectious diseases. It will ing. The increase in the amount of data tics of the entire system. Systems approaches be necessary to change the curriculum of produced greatly exceeds our storage capac- have been very successful in engineering, so- the next generation of students. Biological ity. Individual institutions are not able to cial sciences, and many other disciplines. This systems and human diseases can only be maintain the fast and expensive cycles in approach is now also moving into the life understood using a highly interdisciplinary equipment and infrastructure necessary for sciences, mainly because of the revolution in approach. This will not be restricted to the genomic, proteomic or bioinformatics anal- genomics. A key factor was the development classical natural sciences such as biology, ysis of biological data. For this reason it is of technology to sequence DNA. Within a chemistry, or physics, but also needs to en- necessary to share technology platforms, i.e. decade, the cost of sequencing an entire compass an understanding of our climate in bioinformatics, high-throughput fast se- human genome has come down from tens of and the changes we observe using the social quencing, proteomics or metabolomics, millions of dollars into the range of a few sciences, psychology and economy. which serve not only a few research centers, thousand dollars. This trend will continue but also increasingly a larger number of re- and has also moved into the high-throughput Top-Notch Infrastructure search institutes, i.e. within a region, a coun- generation of RNA expression data. Single Research in the life sciences has undergone try or even beyond. This demands new molecule sequencing and mass spectrometer- another change within the last decade. Col- modes of international cooperation. based proteomics and metabolomics will laboration and resource sharing have be- further accelerate the transformations in come an important element not only in the Outlook biology and biomedicine. design and implementation of the experi- Infectious diseases will never be completely University of Washington researcher Jay ments per se, but also in the establishment eliminated. Fighting them will always be an Shendure and his Stanford University col- of large-scale, capital- and human resource- arms race, driven by evolutionary forces, be- league Hanlee Ji have argued that it will not rich infrastructure. Top-notch infrastructure tween the infected host and the infecting be long before genomic sequencing will be- is a key attractor for becoming competitive pathogen. Uncertainty and complexity are the come a commodity and, as a result, consti- on an international level and staying that hallmarks of infectious diseases. Our best tute an integral part of biomedical research, way. As a result of the progress in sequencing counterattack is probably the ability to work medical routine diagnostics and therapeu- the human genome, the analysis of biologi- across disciplinary boundaries in order to un- tics. These developments will have a great cal systems has largely been driven by efforts derstand in detail the underlying mechanisms. potential to improve our understanding of to automate and miniaturize individual as- Maybe we will discover and understand gen- the mechanisms of infectious diseases. This says. This has led to “Big Biology”– labora- eral rules of complexity and new ways to dis- will guide future vaccine and antiviral drug tories which are characterized by major sect complexity. This will not only be relevant design and enable the development of effec- capital investments, i.e. in robotics, auto- for biology and infectious diseases, but will tive public health policies and measures. The matic imaging capture devices and IT infra- touch upon many other areas. challenge will be whether and how we are structure. The costs for equipment and able to transfer these technologies to the human resources to operate and manage This is an edited version of a lecture given developing world. Rapid DNA sequences of high-throughput infrastructure are substan- at the OCF conference’s session on Global pathogens at the “point of care” has tremen- tial and the replacement cycles become Health and Molecular Medicine. A full dous potential, but as described requires a shorter and shorter. We need to come up ­version and bibliography can be found at rather high tech environment, which is often with solutions to enable developing coun- www.ourcommonfuture.de/balling not available in less-developed countries. tries to participate in the potential and op-

65 Burden of Disease

African Researchers Join Forces to Solve Continent’s Troubles

In Africa, the continent where basic drugs University of Douala, there are regular pow- are needed most, home-grown research er outages and the computers Kang uses are moves slowly due to a lack of infrastruc- often not powerful enough to do the analy- ture, funding and coordination. Cameroo- ses he needs. nian drug design researcher – Fidele Ntie A lack of lab infrastructure means key Kang hopes that a new effort will get more drug compounds must often be sent over- Africans involved in drug development, seas for testing, leading to weeks-long delays. from sorely needed anti-malarial drugs to An unreliable phone network can make therapies for AIDS and other illnesses. Ad- communication between colleagues difficult, dressing participants at the OCF confer- let alone contact with researchers abroad. ence’s session on Global Health, Kang The toughest problem for African drug Fidele Ntie Kang, born in 1976, explained how joined forces of scientists is a researcher in drug design and researchers, Kang says, is a lack of funding and other players could help the continent. development at the University of Douala not only for research, but also for basic in Cameroon with a special interest in scholarship. Because the University of ­Doula In 2003, Fidele Ntie Kang watched his promoting trans-African cooperation. suffers from perpetual funding crises, the 31-year-old sister die of tuberculosis in a faculty is short-staffed and there are often Cameroonian hospital. more students than professors can handle. The experience was transformative. Now impact of tens of billions of dollars to Afri- Many students also struggle to pay univer- a drug design researcher at the University of can gross domestic product. Yet Africans sity fees – Kang himself had to work for a Doula in Cameroon, Kang’s work to develop play a negligible role in developing drugs for few years after high school in order to be treatments for common maladies that still scourges such as HIV/AIDS, malaria and able to afford his education. kill countless Africans each year is moti- tuberculosis. And because there’s little mon- Nonetheless, Kang says he and his col- vated by the memory of his sister. ey involved in treating the world’s poorest leagues are making incremental progress. The numbers are stark: Although Africa people, the diseases are low on the priority He’s especially interested in finding new has 11 percent of the world’s population, it list for major drug companies. ways to battle tuberculosis and is conducting is beset with more than 25 percent of the Kang is one of a growing number of re- computer-assisted research on new tuber- world’s disease burden. It accounts for 60 searchers trying to fight that trend. He’s culosis drugs. And he hopes ANDI and pro- percent of the world’s AIDS cases. Malaria, working with colleagues to create new drugs grams like it will help foster collaborative a disease virtually unknown in the global and acting as a sort of unofficial spokesman research in African universities. North, is endemic in 42 of the continent’s for the African Network for Drugs and Project leaders hope to have ANDI 46 countries and kills a million Africans each Diagnostics Innovation (ANDI), a newly firmly established by the end of 2011. They year. The tuberculosis that killed Ntie Kang’s formed group sponsored by the World are working to create a governance structure, sister claims the lives of half a million more. Health Organization, that aims to increase recruit staff and plan an innovation fund to The results put some of the region’s coun- collaboration between African scientists. spur African drug development. Once in tries at the extreme end of the world’s de- “We have to take care of our own,” he says. place, the fund could receive money from mographic tables: A girl born in Lesotho can “We have to figure a way to make things governments, the private sector or non- expect to live 42 years less than her counter- better here.” governmental organizations. “A few years part in Japan. The Cameroonian knows the challenges ago, we didn’t have any direction,” Kang says. The health situation in Africa causes faced by African drug researchers first-hand, “Now we have a plan to move forward and untold human suffering, as well as a negative because he lives with them every day. At the change things.”

71 Age Limits

Elizabeth Blackburn is a professor of biology and physiology in the Department of Biochemistry and Biophysics at the University of California, San Francisco. In 2009, Blackburn won a Nobel Prize for her work on telomeres, together with her colleagues Carol Greider and Jack Szostak. Body Clock: Telomeres, the Indicators of Aging

Telomeres are to chromosomes what aglets Are telomeres a natural mortality So are shorter telomeres indicators of are to shoelaces: They are like little end- ­device? ­aging, or causes? caps that keep the string of DNA from un- Blackburn: We don’t know if that’s what Blackburn: Well, they’re certainly indica- raveling. Telomere discoverer and Nobel they evolved for. But in humans, who live tors. I think the science challenge is to try to Prize winner Elizabeth Blackburn talked far longer than what we were necessarily sort out what is causal and what isn’t. There to participants in the OCF session on Glo- selected for evolutionarily, one sees clear are very good reasons to think there’s causal- bal Health about how telomeres have relationships between diseases of aging, risks ity, as shown by the somewhat more extreme emerged as a good indicator of cellular ag- of aging and shortness of telomeres. So they cases of rare genetic mutations that prevent ing – and have been connected to chronic are an indicator of diseases of aging. They’re telomeres from regenerating. There are diseases of aging like cardiovascular dis- not necessarily an indicator of longevity, but many people on the planet who have telom- ease, diabetes, and cancer. Recent studies they have emerged in elderly cohorts as a erase gene mutation defects, which very show that stress can interfere with tel- measure of how many years of healthy life a clearly cause extreme forms of diseases that omere maintenance, while meditation may person has, which is really quite interesting. mirror a lot of the things that do happen in boost these chromosome caps. In an inter- Years of healthy life is the number of years the more general population as they age. So view, she also pointed to the responsibil- one has before succumbing to one or an- that kind of causality is clearly genetic. ity ­scientists have to society at large and other of the things that happen in old age – be Are there examples of the reverse situation, the policy implications of her research. it disease or frailty or lack of functionality where people have unusually resilient tel- in one way or another. omeres?

72 Global Health and Molecular Medicine Our Common Future Blackburn: People have looked into the Has enough research been done to conclu- telomere maintenance, you can give it an situation for centenarians, and there have sively say depression and stress have a di- objective measure. As we look at health care, been surveys of the genetic variants that you rect effect on telomere maintenance? there are a lot of situations that may not look find in centenarians. A few things have Blackburn: It’s just beginning. One has to that severe individually but add up to quite shown up, and they include telomere main- first of all do the studies and see what shows a large burden. These are worth taking tenance genes – but they include other up, and then push it further and further. But ­seriously, and we’ve stumbled into this by things as well. How they all play together is there are clear relationships between chron- having a set of measures. unclear, but there’s a definite smoking gun ic stress, extreme forms of clinical depres- How deeply should scientists be involved there. In terms of wider implications, I’m sion, and various other syndromes and in the larger public debate on these ques- still very cautious, because centenarians are telomere maintenance. We still need to un- tions? a pretty rare group. Their numbers are going derstand these links. Blackburn: To me, the primary job of sci- up, but they’re still a minority. Are there policy implications to that entists is to do really good science – we must In the gray middle zone, the vast major- knowledge? never lose sight of that. But being able to ity of humanity – we have to be cautious Blackburn: In the medical and scientific and articulate your science is important, and a about overinterpreting from the extremes policy communities, it’s often about what side effect is you learn to think more clearly. about how much is causal, and how much we can measure, whereas nursing profes- It’s a double bonus. is interacting with other pathways. But if you sionals often say that the gold standard is On the other hand, if you’re just going draw a line between the extremes, it’s an how the patient feels. Chronic stress, for ex- out and being articulate all the time, you’re extremely reasonable one. ample, sounds very vague to a lot of people. not really spending the time to do the science Are there factors besides genetics that come Yet we have studies of people who are care­ well. Everybody says you should be out com- into play when it comes to telomeres? givers for people who are chronically ill – municating all the time, but I think you need Blackburn: A lot of us die of heart disease, mothers of chronically ill children, or to be in the lab, too – and spend time really of cancer, of diabetes – illnesses where there’s caretakers for people with Alzheimer’s or thinking. That’s the hard part, to spend time not a strong genetic input in the majority of dementia, and their telomeres are especially thinking. the population. But beyond genetics, that’s short. These individuals are not the patients, Are today’s scientists doing a good enough where things get extremely interesting, be- but they are under a lot of stress that goes job, and how could the next generation do cause there are further factors that affect on for a long time. Their perception of stress better? heart disease, like chronic stress. You can is quantitatively related to cardiovascular Blackburn: The difference between my quantify the effects of chronic stress on tel- disease risks, which is a pretty expensive ­generation and a lot of younger scientists omere maintenance. disease when you get it. now is that when I was at a comparable stage How do you eliminate confounding factors Anything you can think of as a policy in my career, we had fewer research tech- that might confuse the picture? that gives tools for these caregivers to cope nologies to use, so we had to figure out our Blackburn: I come from the molecular cel- with this stress sounds like a no-brainer, but own ways around the problems. And we lular research world, so I need to collaborate the health care systems in the United States generated so much less data that we had to with people who have great expertise in don’t work like that. You can’t always take really think about what we had. Now you clinical studies. It’s important to collaborate stressful situations out of people’s lives, but can do so much in the lab, that stopping and with people bringing in really different ex- if they have real disease consequences you really thinking is really the hard part. pertises. I’ve learned from them that it’s can say OK, maybe it’s worthwhile putting It’s a wonderful dilemma that it’s now important to remember that confounders things in place that treat stress as a serious easier to generate data than to force yourself are not necessarily confounders – they can situation as well. to really grapple with what it means. In the be interactors, and those can be informative. So the idea is to prove to policy makers that biological sciences, the older generation We’re looking very closely at those things as by measuring telomeres you can develop ­scientists can encourage people to think well. We have studies looking at depression, new methods to deal with stress? about their results. post-traumatic stress, adverse childhood Blackburn: You can say someone’s just events and telomere maintenance, and there whining, and shouldn’t be taken seriously. More can be found at http://biochemistry. are some very clear links. Some people are born whiners. But if you ucsf.edu/labs/blackburn/ have quantitative measures of stress, like

73 Talking about Population Growth

“Usually demogra- phers underestimate longevity.” Natalia Gavrilova

“There's a lot of effort to extend life span.” Luis Guachalla

74 Global Health and Molecular Medicine Our Common Future Leonid Gavrilov and Natalia Gavrilova are years than in the very radical forecasts of life population biologists who specialize in the span extension. So, I made a prediction pro- mechanisms of mortality, longevity, and gram for another scenario, which shows aging. Their research has unearthed sur- continuation of the current increasing trend prising and intriguing demographic in life span expectancy … trends. At the OCF conference, they spoke Gavrilov: She worked with her computer with OCF Fellow Luis Guachalla – a post- overnight, and produced completely new doctoral researcher in molecular medicine data. One of the great benefits of confer- whose work involves uncovering the bio- ences like OCF is not just people coming logical causes of aging and death – about and presenting their results, but interacting the links between longer lives and global with each other during the conference to population growth. produce new results. Luis Guachalla, born Gavrilova: … The consequence will be that in 1980, works at the Guachalla: It’s not that common for young- Research Center for the population will still decline, but there er researchers to have an opportunity to sit Molecular Medicine at will be more very long-lived people and 100 down and interview senior scientists, so I’m the Austrian Academy years from now it will not be surprising to really happy to be here. I was interested in of Sciences. find people who live up to 120. But what is your latest paper that showed the conse- interesting is that usually demographers quences of extending life span. There are underestimate longevity, and they underes- many fears that extending life span will lead timate the growth of life expectancy. De- to overpopulation of the world, but your mographers are usually afraid to assume that results indicate that may not happen. In fact, people will live past 110, and for this reason your model suggests that in 100 years, there they usually underestimate future popula- won’t be any change in the world’s popula- tions. I made no such assumptions in my tion, partly because people are having fewer predictions. This is simply a continuation children even as they live longer lives. But of the trend of increasing life expectancy. how would it be in a longer time frame – for Guachalla: In your paper you use the ex- example, 200 years, 300 years, 400 years? ample of Sweden, a very well-developed Would it still be the same trend? country. You’re already showing a declining Gavrilov: Well, it depends on the particular population. Can extending longevity main- model. For example if you consider the tain the population, or do Swedes need to situation where you have less than two chil- increase their reproduction rate as well? dren per family, the population growth in- Gavrilov: This is very important, because crement keeps decreasing. But in other people are very concerned about overpopu- specifications, there might be different lation, and often objections to life extension ­scenarios. The key issue is the number of are made on the basis of “there will be too children per family, on average. Overpopu- many people in the world.” What they do lation depends more on fertility than on not understand is that in developed coun- mortality. Even in the most radical life span tries like Sweden and Germany, the real extension scenario, you cannot get big pop- Population biologist problem is not overpopulation but on a long ulation growth. Natalia Gavrilova time horizon you have a drastic decline in Gavrilova: I met the chair of our session, is a research associate native-born population. You have a demo- Professor Karl Lenhard Rudolph, director at the Center on Aging, graphic catastrophe. Of course you can solve of the Institute of Stem Cell Aging at Ulm NORC (National Opin- this problem with immigrants, but then you ion Research Center) University, and I found out that he, for ex- at theUniversity of can lose your cultural identity, you can lose ample, is more interested in realistic sce- Chicago. your language. Life-extension technology is narios of increases in life span up to 100 not a part of the problem, but part of the

75 solution. Any intervention that increases Guachalla: I come from a developing coun- healthy human life span would really help try, Bolivia. Would you say the same rules in this situation. would apply for life span extension in a de- Guachalla: One observation to this point veloping country as in a developed country? – extension of life span is not always associ- Gavrilov: This is a more political question ated with improved health quality. If human than scientific. It seems to me there is a lot beings reach 130 years of age, what would of low-hanging fruit, so to speak. It is much be your recommendations on retirement easier to clean water to avoid cholera epi- age? There’s a hot debate in Europe right demics, for example, than apply expensive now on this topic. The French for example, antiaging treatments. There are so many are complaining that they are not willing to things that can be done in developing coun- work two, three or five years longer. But if tries to increase healthy lifespan that it Leonid Gavrilov is a people live to be 130 and keep the current would be a waste of resources to push the research scientist at retirement age, it means that they will only the Center on Aging, idea of anti-aging interventions at this point. spend half their life working. NORC at the University In many countries with short life span, there Gavrilova: The main consequence of lon- of Chicago. are much easier ways to add years of healthy gevity is accelerated population aging. Cur- life than high tech antiaging interventions. rent societies are not ready for this challenge. Gavrilova: It’s interesting, because the But I believe that it is not only a challenge, trends are diverging in the developing world. it is an opportunity. Older people have more Take Malaysia: We found that in Malaysia experience and knowledge, maybe require the life expectancy is close to Western coun- only short education for new jobs. This is tries. They’re really healthy, even though it’s an asset to society. But current regulations a rapidly developing country. On the other do not encourage older people to work, and hand, Russia, which is considered a highly sometimes there is even forced retirement industrialized country, has a very, very low after a certain age. Governments are doing life expectancy. For men it is 59 years, lower this in a not very gentle way, just raising the than in China. retirement age without giving people a Gavrilov: It has to do with heavy, heavy choice. But you could, for example, give ­alcoholism. It would be insane to make some people who want to work longer some in- antiaging intervention before you eradicate centives and let people who are frail or don’t alcoholism from the culture in Russia. They want to work that option. Currently, though, simply refuse to do the easy part. Western societies are not ready for the Guachalla: Talking about external factors, ­challenges of an aging population. something that has been discussed a lot is Guachalla: Ideally, it would be nice to not climate change. Do you think climate change only live longer but also have a good qual- will have an impact on life expectancy? ity of life. The aim is being 80 or 90 but still Gavrilov: Just recently, there were extreme being able to do tasks a young person can heat waves near Moscow that hadn’t been do. We can live until we’re 130 or 140, but seen in 100 years. There was a spike in mor- we don’t want to be trapped in bed con- tality among older people, and there are nected to oxygen tubes. I think there’s a lot different estimates but the most conservative of effort to extend life span and also improve estimate is that the death rate increased by quality of life in the elderly. a factor of two. Climate, if it becomes a sys- Gavrilova: The few people who survived to tematic problem, really adds to the pressure old ages in the past were much healthier at on life expectancy. age 80, because otherwise they would have succumbed to disease at an earlier age.

76 Global Health and Molecular Medicine Our Common Future Educating Peers Youth The global fight against AIDS is waged on Walyaro: One of the simplest things that many levels. International, national and came from it was that young people like to local advocacy organizations all try to Education hear from other young people. They’d rath- educate people about the disease and fight er hear about HIV/AIDS and sexual repro- its spread. But for years there has been a ductive rights from their fellow peers as major flaw in AIDS advocacy: Organiza- and the opposed to having people who represent tions rarely engaged young people in the their parents telling them to use condoms, process. Kenyan Constance Walyaro, a AIDS Crisis practice safe sex and get tested. So having member of the Global Youth Coalition on peers talk to each other about HIV preven- HIV/AIDS, points out that a key to solving tion and advocacy has really helped and the African AIDS crisis is engaging the pushed the agenda forward. young in spreading public-health mes- Do you find that commitment is flagging? sages. Invited as OCF Fellow to the confer- Walyaro: Absolutely. In the beginning, ev- ence she talked to workshop participants eryone was talking about HIV and AIDS. at the session on Global Health. That was a major focus. There was so much support. But right now, it is just like any How do AIDS and HIV specifically other disease. So it has lost a lot of the clout impact young people? that it used to have. It is a bit worrying, be- Walyaro: Well, in 2003, about half of all new cause if the general trend continues and HIV infections in Africa were among people people begin to forget where we’ve come between the ages of 15 and 24 and they were from with regard to HIV and AIDS, we could the most vulnerable population. Right now, see ourselves regressing and losing some of we have made progress, but young people the gains we’ve actually made. still remain vulnerable. In terms of infection How has your youth impacted your work? rates, those numbers have gone down thanks Do you think you bring a fresh outlook to to better information, treatment and care. these issues? Kenyan Constance Walyaro, born 1979, is What tactics have made an impact when it Walyaro: I think a lot of us young people – the president of Citron Wood Foundation, comes to education and prevention? a nonprofit devoted to empowering poor like the OCF fellows – bring a different per- Walyaro: One thing that has been working communities. She is working ­towards a spective because there definitely is a well is the capacity building and technical PhD in health economics, policy and law. generational gap. It is very refreshing to find assistance. We, at the Global Youth Coalition young people who are interested in develop- on HIV/AIDS, have been providing a lot of How has involving youth in the process ment issues. Because I think sometimes the free online courses. We have been providing changed AIDS/HIV advocacy? older generation has this picture of young young people opportunities to attend health Walyaro: We found in the past that govern- people that they are rowdy – that they conferences, where they get to meet with ments, donors, and big organizations real- really have no concern for the future and for professionals who have more information ized that young people were vulnerable to the world. But there are many people who about what is happening. We also give them HIV, but that segment of the population was are doing something positive and contribut- an opportunity to showcase what they are only brought in during the implementation ing to the future of the world. doing. At the same time, we have made it stage of projects. So we did a lot of advo- That sounds like a tenet of your youth-to- possible for international aid conferences to cacy work and insisted that under-25s be youth education: Policy makers should actually have a section that just focuses on involved not just at implementation stages have more trust in young people. Young people under 25. This is much more engag- but at the decision-making, planning, mon- people have the capability to make impact ing. Before, many youths attended these itoring and evaluation stages. It turns out and be the leaders of tomorrow. conferences, but there was no space for they had a lot to contribute to the processes. Walyaro: Yes – and not tomorrow. We are them. Right now, people under 25 are driv- What was the first thing that the young actually leading right now. ing the process much more. people changed about the process? What had adults overlooked? www.gyca.org

77 Impressions from the conference.

78 Global Health and Molecular Medicine Our Common Future 4 Questions, 8 Answers

“What fact makes you the most optimistic about our ­common future?" Haverich: Younger scientists are more willing to look beyond the boundaries of their own research and collaborate with experts in other specialties and regions. Rudolph: Medical care has improved dramatically over the last 100 years. I think, in principle, we can handle new challenges. Human intelligence will find solutions to the most pressing issues.

“What is the greatest challenge facing us in the next 25 years?" Haverich: We have to remind politicians to strengthen aid to countries that don’t have adequate medical and social support. There needs to be more even distribution and access to medical treatment. Rudolph: In the medical sector, the biggest challenges are aging and cancer. I also think we need to make sure that industries take better care of the environment. Wasting the planet’s resources will ultimately affect health.

“What piece of advice would you give young researchers in your field today?" Haverich: I would advise young researchers to develop a broader understanding of concepts outside of their fields. Personally, I get most of my ideas when I go to meetings of other specialties. Rudolph: We need more physician scientists. In order to have further increases in health span, we need physicians who understand the molecular causes of disease.

“What was the most surprising insight you had at this conference?" Haverich: Elizabeth Blackburn’s discussion about biochemical changes in cells and aging was fascinating. She gave some very good examples of how physical exercise can help us live longer and reverse the aging process.

Rudolph: I was really excited to see how stem cell research is translating into medical applications, for example, in the treatment of cancer.

Axel Haverich and Karl Lenhard Rudolph served as scientific advisors for the OCF sessions on Global Health. Haverich is head of the Department of Cardiothoracic, Transplant and Vascular Surgery at Hanover Medical School (MHH). Karl Lenhard Rudolph is director of the Institute of Molecular Medicine and head of the Max Planck Research Group for Stem Cell Aging at the University of Ulm.

79

Climate Change and Energy Introduction

With the Kyoto Protocol expiring in 2012, At the OCF conference, participants was the scientific advisor for the second will the global community manage to nego- joined together to come up with ideas on ­session on Climate Change. “Just reducing tiate a new, binding climate treaty? The how to overcome the problems of the world’s emissions can’t stabilize the climate now and meager results of the last few climate summits changing climate. On the one hand, experts for ever – we need to also adapt to changes offer slim hope. Part of the problem is that discussed ways to halt or even roll back the that occur, now and in the future.” binding limits on greenhouse gas emissions damage already done. Known as mitigation, No matter what their area of study, how must be global, and not just applied to this approach involves strategies ranging to communicate better with the world’s pol- industrial nations. Politicians and scientists from capturing carbon from power plants iticians – and the public they represent – was agree that’s the only way to get the problem and natural gas wells deep underground, to high on the list of priorities for the experts of global warming under control. It will take developing technologies for mobility and at the climate sessions. Participants noted other measures too, of course. That’s as manufacturing that use less fossil fuels and that as multilateral negotiations flame out certain as the fact that nothing will happen have a smaller carbon footprint. and fail, one common theme in the discourse without an entirely new approach. On the other hand, international aca- has been the lines drawn between developing Nevertheless, a subliminal reluctance to demics and representatives of relevant in- nations, who have an interest in raising the trust authority in general has manifested stitutions joined to discuss different options standard of living for their citizens to levels itself in an unwillingness to listen to re- of adaptation. Adaptation involves the clear- long enjoyed in the global North, and devel- searchers’ urgent warnings. “This kind of eyed realization that climate change is com- oped countries, hoping to preserve what irrationalism, in whatever form, can be very ing, whether we curb emissions or not, and they have without sacrifice. With speakers dangerous in our society,” says Hans Joachim the sooner we learn to deal with it the better. and attendees from both sides of the divide, Schellnhuber, founding director of the Pots- “Mitigation and adaptation are two aspects the OCF conference was a hopeful sign that dam Institute for Climate Impact Research of one problem,” says Reinhard Huettl, science and rationalism can endure in the who acted as the scientific advisor for the scientific director of the German Research face of denial and narrow-mindedness – first session on Climate Change and Energy. Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam, who and, in the end, overcome them.

82 Climate Change and Energy Our Common Future ½ of the world’s wetlands have been lost since 1900.

nuclear power plants around the world 442 produce 375 gigawatts of energy.

845 th plant species in the EU may lose their habitat due to global warming, 1/20 of the continent’s total.

12,000,000,000,000 tons of carbon, mostly in the form of coal, is left on Earth.

900 liters of water are needed to produce 1 liter of wine.

83 A New Global Deal

Keys to Curbing Climate Change “We have to leave the majority of the reserves of coal, oil, and gas underground.”

Ottmar Edenhofer is deputy director and chief economist of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and co-chair of the mitigation working group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

84 Climate Change and Energy Our Common Future rise over the next century. But even if the burnt in the memory of humankind that Everyone knows something must be actual concentration of greenhouse gases in well-being, welfare, and economic growth done about climate change. The ques- the atmosphere could be stabilized right are associated with burning coal, oil, and tion is, what – and how? As the nations of now, global mean temperature would still gas. This historical experience is the reason the world debate what the future will bring, rise by 0.6 degrees. This adds up to already why so many developing countries are issues of justice inevitably arise. Does the 1.4 degrees – just a little lower than the reluctant to accept binding commitments. developed world have a responsibility to limit of two degrees the United Nations The crucial question is: Are we able to sacrifice some of its prosperity to help the agreed upon. decouple economic growth from emissions poor of the world achieve higher standards We have already seen the implications growth in the next century? “Business as of living without further damage to the for emission reduction profiles. In an ideal usual” leads to an increase of global mean ­environment? Renowned climate expert world, the only thing we as scientists would temperature of around four to five degrees. Ottmar Edenhofer says cooperation and have to do is to communicate these insights So we risk really dangerous climate change. technology are both key to navigating the to the policy makers. They then have to To achieve the two degree Celsius target, on perilous future we face together. choose reasonable climate and energy poli- the other hand, requires that we peak our cies in order to reduce emissions. emissions around 2020, then reduce emis- However, there’s another risk, a very sions substantially by the end of the cen- The world’s leading climate researchers important one, emphasized in particular by tury. In the long run we have to achieve agree that the Earth’s system has certain tip- the developing countries. And this is what negative emissions. ping elements sensitive to global warming. I would like to call the risk of dangerous There is a gap between what will happen Once specific temperatures are exceeded, emission reduction. and what should happen. Do we have the events might be set into motion that we can- If you look at the world’s distribution of technologies, and can we transform our not reverse – receding ice caps leading to capital stock per person over the last five energy system to achieve the two degree rising sea levels, melting permafrost in Si- decades, the results aren’t much of a sur- Celsius target? beria emitting substantial quantities of prise: The United States is very rich, Latin Our energy system is a fossil-fuel based methane into the atmosphere or significant America is poor, Africa is very poor, and energy system dominated by oil, coal, and changes in ocean currents, for example. The Europe is also relatively rich. gas. There’s a little bit of nuclear power, a lot dimension of these impacts on the planetary This distribution becomes a little bit of traditional biomass (largely firewood), machinery has a profound impact on how more interesting if you compare it to how and a very tiny part of the mix is renewables. economists think about climate policy and much CO2 different countries have depos- From now on, we have to transform our the whole climate change issue. ited in the atmosphere over the last five dec- energy system substantially. These events are hard to determine pre- ades. The countries which have been Renewables will be an important part of cisely. Even if their probability would be low, successful in promoting economic growth any future energy system. Another impor- the impacts are very high. This is what some and overcoming poverty are the economists call a “fat-tail” distributed event. same countries which have used “The crucial question is: Are This has a very important implication: cost- the atmosphere to a large extent. we able to decouple benefit analysis cannot be applied if you are And this is a one-to-one relation- confronted and challenged by these kinds of ship. Historically, increasing economic growth from events. capital stock per capita by one emissions growth in the To deal with the potentially high impact percent, also increased emissions next century?” of those tipping elements, we need a kind of by one percent. precautionary principle. One such principle tant element will be negative emissions. is that in order to avoid dangerous climate Tragic Trade-off This means some kind of carbon extraction change, the increase of global mean tem- We have never successfully decoupled eco- technologies like the almost CO2-neutral perature must be limited to two degrees nomic growth from emissions. We are con- use of biomass combined with carbon cap- Celsius, compared to preindustrial levels. fronted with a tragic trade-off. A world ture and storage, and nuclear power. The This would hopefully result in avoiding where we have climate protection means costs of implementing these solutions are large-scale risks to the planet. We have al- emission reductions and sacrificing eco- between one and two percent of world ready increased the global mean tempera- nomic growth. Or we have economic growth GDP – in other words, postponement of ture by 0.8 degrees over the last centuries, without climate protection, and risk danger- economic growth for a few months between so we can afford an additional 1.2-degree ous climate change. It seems that it has been now and 2030.

85 Is this realistic? Can we expect such a Managing the Atmosphere it is not a good idea to walk through a desert transformation, based on what we have seen First of all, we have to recognize that the with a limited amount of water. So philoso- regarding the evolution of our international atmosphere is a global common. We have phy cannot help us. institutions, the Copenhagen Accord and the around 12,000 gigatons of carbon as ex- Instead, we need a bunch of people who ongoing evolution of our energy system? I haustible resources underground. And we undertake a trip to the next oasis together. would argue that we cannot expect such a can deposit just 230 gigatons of that in the The next oasis, in this case, is a carbon-free transformation unless we have internation- atmosphere if we want to achieve the two economy with a reasonable portfolio of al binding agreements. degree Celsius target. That’s why the atmos- mitigation options and new technologies. Over the last five years, the carbon in- phere is the limited resource, not carbon. Without climate-friendly technologies, tensity around the world actually increased. We have to establish a kind of an earth at- without innovation, I believe we cannot After the recovery of the world economy we mospheric trust to manage the atmosphere, solve the climate problem. We have to dis- will have an even higher growth rate, and an one of the most important assets we have, tribute the water in a way which allows the increase in carbon intensity. This will lead on behalf of humankind. whole trip to the next oasis. It might be plau- to an increase in emissions. sible that the whole trip will reach the next But we need carbon intensity and emis- Innovative Technologies oasis if the water is distributed equally sions to go down, not up. It is quite clear Then the crucial question becomes how among the group. However, without new that the scarce resources in the 21st century should we distribute, in a fair way, these technologies, this climate problem becomes are not coal and gas, and oil; the limited emission rights over the course of the next a purely distributional zero-sum game. And ­resource is the capacity of the atmosphere. century? To highlight these issues of fairness humankind doesn’t have the capability to This is, from my point of view, the most and justice, let me tell you a little fairy tale. solve zero-sum games. important insight of the economics of Think about ten people in a desert. Analyzing the climate problem with the climate change: We have to leave the major- These ten people have a limited amount of eyes of an observer who would like to see ity of the reserves of coal, oil, and gas under­ water. Two people drink a lot of water, and much more innovation, it is quite worrisome ground. they have already used half of the water. that research and development investment At some point, the in renewable energy technologies is not as “We have to ... manage the atmos- whole group realizes high as it should be. And R&D investments water is a scarce re- do not have the right composition to bring phere, one of the most important source. the appropriate technologies forward in the assets we have.” So the two who long run. In particular, we need new storage have already drunk technologies for renewables and also invest- This will reduce the profits for some the most come up with a splendid idea. They ments in carbon capture and storage. companies and nations. And this is the rea- argue, “let’s distribute the rest of the water son why they will oppose any global binding in a fair way so everybody gets the same Stop Deforestation agreement: Because such a treaty would amount of water.” Two people in the group Thirty percent of carbon emissions come ­reduce their resource rents. What we have are quite happy with that plan. The other from land use and land use change emis- to do, in one way or another, is transform eight people are not happy. They point out sions, in particular deforestation. The south- their profits. We have to transform their re- that the first two have already source rents into a kind of a climate rent, used half of the water. “To protect the forests, we which is then the property right to the at- In the end, it doesn’t mat- have to think about how to mosphere for humankind as a whole. ter: If the ten people in the Therefore it seems to me that we need desert start fighting about the compensate people who do global institutions that allow us to manage proper way to distribute the rest not use them.” this transformation. These institutions con- of the water, in the end they will sist of an international cap and trade system: all die of thirst. ern hemisphere, in particular, is responsible A kind of atmospheric trust; promotion of This is what economists call a serious for these kinds of emissions. Here we are climate-friendly technologies; funds to avoid zero-sum game. And zero-sum games cannot challenged by another global common: The deforestation; an international adaptation be solved. A philosopher could probably forests. To protect the forests, we have to fund and a new kind of development policy, solve the problem, but there are no philoso- think about how to compensate people who as outlined below. phers in the desert: They’re all sitting at do not use them. But, again, such a compen- home writing marvelous essays about why sation scheme is quite tricky.

86 Climate Change and Energy Our Common Future This entire process is especially difficult tries, and in particular in Africa. Here, again, given the interconnected nature of the glob- we need a redesign, in particular of the al economy and its links to forests around ­European agricultural policy. To deal with the world. Even efforts to produce greener a decline of food production we need an fuels seem to be backfiring. Increasing oil integrated agricultural market where poor prices, for example, have led to an increasing countries have access. Otherwise, I do not rise in maize prices. Why was this the case? think we can prevent food crises in the Due to the increasing oil price, it becomes future. incredibly competitive for the farmers all Finally, we need to redesign develop- over the world to produce biofuels – in par- ment policy. When we distribute our emis- ticular bioethanol and biodiesel. This means sion rights according to equal shares per that the opportunity costs to protect the “The energy markets ... are the forests increased, be- most important force behind what cause now the de- happens in the agricultural market.” mand for food and the demand for biofuels have increased the capita – let’s say by 2020 each person on land rents. That is an additional incentive earth has the same right to emit CO2 – across for farmers not to protect the forests, but to the globe, it is quite obvious that the poorest chop them down. countries, particularly in Africa, will sub- This aspect is quite worrisome. Now the stantially benefit from this scheme. We energy markets, in particular the oil market, should use the international cap and trade are the most important force behind what system as an important tool to redesign and happens in the agricultural market. The in- to enhance development policy. An interna- creasing demand for biofuels has led to an tional cap and trade system is an important increase in deforestation. This is simply first- device to mobilize money, which then can semester microeconomics. be invested in the poor countries. However – and this is quite important – This is, from my point of view, the glob- people who are designing the compensation al deal we need. Even if you are not so inter- mechanism to protect the forests have not ested in climate policy, these kinds of global taken into account the fact that oil prices institutions are necessary to manage our determine what happens in the agricultural global commons. The atmosphere and the markets. forests are some of the most important ex- amples of a global common resource. Adapting to Climate Change We need these institutions in order to Adaptation is quite an important issue. Even manage other global crises, like the food if we are able to limit the increase of global crisis and the migration problem. While it mean temperature to just one degree Cel- seems to me these kinds of global institu- sius, there will be some climate change. In tions are absolutely necessary, I have to say particular, poor countries have to adapt to I do not know if it is likely global institutions climate change. And therefore an interna- like this will be implemented in the next tional adaptation fund has to help these five years. In the end, it is up to us to make countries redesign their infrastructure. it likely. But if we take only into account infra- structure investments, we’re not sufficiently This is a condensed version of a speech understanding adaptation. We need also a given at the session on Climate Change new agricultural policy. An increase of glob- and Energy. More can be found at al mean temperature beyond two degrees www.ourcommonfuture.de/edenhofer will have a severe impact on agricultural productivity, particularly in poorer coun-

87 Resource Allocation

Water in a Global Perspective “Sustainably solving the world's water problems will come at a high price."

Wolfgang Kinzelbach is a professor of hydromechanics at ETH Zurich. His research focuses on sustain- able water resources management in arid and semiarid regions, mainly in Africa and China.

88 Climate Change and Energy Our Common Future have a drought and have to pull up water to used in the production of a good which is With all the discussion about the save the harvest. But we should base what afterwards not contained in the good, like world’s dwindling supply of fossil we really do on the rapidly renewing surface the 900 liters it takes to make one liter of ­fuels, another critical substance is often water. Groundwater is not something which wine. overlooked. Life on Earth depends on water, goes well with large-scale irrigation. To put this in perspective, most people and yet the world is well on its way to a ­water Another difference is between blue and drink two to five liters of water a day. Yet one crisis. All across the globe, farmers need green water. Green water is the rainwater kilogram of grain takes in its production 500 more water to supply food for a growing which is stored in the root zone of the plants to 2,000 liters of water, making grain essen- world population. Water expert Wolfgang and released into the atmosphere again tially concentrated water. If you use that Kinzelbach of ETH Zurich says a combina- through the plants’ evapotranspiration. Blue grain to feed animals, then the water is dou- tion of political will and creative technology water is runoff left on the land. It collects on bly concentrated, or more. And one kilogram is needed to get us safely through the decades the surface or comes out of springs, flows of animal products – meat or milk – con- to come. into channels and rivers, and then on to the sumes 5,000 to 15,000 liters of water. ocean. Should we become vegetarian? I think When we look at rain-fed agriculture, if we look at this question a bit more scien- In South Africa, there’s a popular slo- we talk about green water use. It’s the rain tifically, then we should differentiate care- gan: “Save water, drink wine.” Sadly, the which is stored in the slogan is completely wrong. To produce one soil and then evapo- “In 2025, there will be three billion liter of wine, you need about 900 liters of rated by the plants. people living in areas with scarce water. That’s water for the vine to grow and Irrigated agriculture water resources.” the leaves to develop, water for the grapes to is blue water use. ripen, and water to wash the bottles before Only blue water is easily managed and dis- fully – if we told countries like Mongolia, you fill them. tributed. Green water can be managed only Botswana or Argentina not to eat meat but This false slogan illustrates a problem in indirectly by land-use change. to grow food on their prairies, they would the public debate over water resources. Finally, we distinguish between noncon- ruin their countries, just as in the Dust Bowl When we talk about water, most people just sumptive water use and consumptive water in the United States almost a hundred years think about drinking water. Drinking water use. If I wash my hands, the water is, for ago. Usually, the only reasonable way of is a minor, even negligible, problem as far as example, coming from the Rhine River. It turning a prairie into edible calories is to put water quantity is concerned: What we re- will go down the sewage canal. It will go to cows or sheep on it. ally need water for is to grow plants and, the sewage treatment plant. And it will re- more specifically, food. turn to the Rhine. It has just made a detour. Competition for Resources I didn’t use the water: I used its cleanliness, But in most of the world, the intense water Banking Water maybe its low temperature, but not the ­water use that comes along with agriculture con- In truth, we have two types of water. One is itself. tributes to a growing, and urgent, problem: the surface water you see in lakes and rivers. This is different in agriculture, where Water scarcity. According to the UN, serious The other is ground water hidden under the water is evaporated. It’s not lost, but it prob- water scarcity starts when there are less than surface. They’re very different, in two ways: ably doesn’t come down as rain in the same 1,000 cubic meters per year, per person in a Surface water has a relatively small volume catchment area it was taken from. So, as far region. That’s not just water for drinking, but a large renewal rate, while groundwater as the catchment is concerned, it may be lost, it’s water for everything from agriculture to has huge volume but a very small renewal or consumed. This consumptive use will industry. According to that definition, we rate. Surface water takes, on average, two to have a consequence. If the people upstream had about 400 million people who fell into three years to exchange once, while ground- use a lot of water for agriculture, they evap- this category in the year 2000. In 2025, there water takes thousands of years to exchange orate it and the people downstream will lack will be three billion people living in areas once. that water. with scarce water resources – more than a Think of it in terms of a bank account. sixfold increase. When setting a budget, the important thing Water into Wine Scarcity is growing for four reasons. Rea- is our monthly paycheck, not the money in Finally, there’s virtual water. This is a term son number one is population growth to our savings account. Savings are for when coined by John Anthony Allan, a British ge- about 9 billion by 2050, when hopefully it we get into trouble and need to fix the car – ographer and economist. We call it virtual will stop and decline again. Our task is not just like groundwater is important when we water because there is water which has been really to fight against the exponential curve,

89 it’s to make it to 2050 – if we manage that, be sustainable. If users upstream are taking fold: Number one is the water transfer from then afterwards things will become better all the water, people downstream might have Southern China to Northern China. And again. Second is an increase in living stan- a problem – maybe even to the point of an number two is a land grab in Africa, where dards. The fact is that the last doubling of armed struggle. The breakdown of institu- food for Chinese cities will be grown in Af- population caused a tripling in water use. tions due to bad governance is also unsus- rican fields instead of on Chinese land. This We eat better, we drink better, we do more tainable. And runaway costs for water would is a way of adapting to the situation, but for our hygiene – we each use more water. be as well. whether it’s a good way is another question. Third is the water required for agrofuels. So what are the largest problems of un- Fourth, and finally, there’s climate change. sustainable water use on Earth? The first is Damning Diversity Climate change does not change the amount of course the depletion of aquifers. One- Another growing issue is the decreasing flow of water we have on Earth, but it changes quarter of all withdrawals are nonrenewable. of rivers in low-flow season. Many rivers the distribution of rain on the surface of It’s fossil water, which is not renewed. And which used to be perennial – the Nile, the the Earth. 40 percent of irrigated agriculture in the Yellow River – have become seasonal rivers. Due to all of these factors, global de- world is affected by declining groundwater On the Yellow River, for example, reservoirs mand could double in the future. That levels. have been built to an extent that their com- makes water security a global problem. How The two worst places are in India’s Gan- bined storage volume now equals the average do we make global water consumption sus- ges valley and in the North China Plain. In annual flow of the river. That means that tainable and avert a water crisis? First we the North China must look at the ways in which our water Plain, the pressure on “The world's wetlands have shrunk use today is deficient. There are many prac- underground water by 50 percent over the last tices today for which there is no simple al- resources is so heavy ternative, but which at the same time cannot that the price of water century ... due to competition.” go on indefinitely without running into has gone up, because more electricity is in an average or below-average year you a crisis. needed to get the water up from the lowered can retain every drop of the river’s water One example is the depletion of a finite groundwater table. As a result, it is no lon- within the watershed, and not leave anything resource which cannot be replaced. If a ger economically feasible to grow irrigated to the sea. country lives on groundwater alone because wheat in the North China Plain. The irri- Damming the river’s upper stream, of there is no other perennial water source, and gated wheat farming is migrating to the course, has a lot of repercussions on the this groundwater is pumped out faster than country’s northeast, where it can be grown lower reaches of the river. The most tragic it can be replaced, you have an unsustainable with rainwater. That is one way of adapting example for upstream use leading to down- situation. The same goes for soil: If we erode to the situation. stream misery is the Aral Sea, where water it faster than it is formed, we will have none The situation in India is more critical. is now evaporated in agriculture upstream left in the end. And the same goes for bio- In India, unsustainable water use is encour- instead of in the lake. As a result, what was diversity. You cannot recreate species which aged by the fact that electricity is free for the once a vast inland sea has almost vanished, are extinct. farmers. Whenever something is free, there’s except for a small basin which is saved by Another example is the accumulation of no incentive to conserve or value it. And that a dam. substances in the soil or groundwater. Salt is what is happening with water: Indian The world’s wetlands have shrunk by 50 accumulation may be a very slow trend. But farmers pump it from the ground exces- percent over the last century. In the first part sively because the of the century, wetlands disappeared in “How do we make global water electricity is free. No North America and Europe. In the second consumption sustainable and avert exit strategy is on the part of the century, it’s Asia and Africa that a water crisis?” horizon. Politicians are losing their wetland biospheres at a are reluctant to im- rapid rate due to competition from agricul- if you go on accumulating, you reach a pose unpopular tariffs on electricity in the ture both for land and water. With the loss limit where plants cannot do their osmotic countryside. of the wetlands we lose biodiversity, which work and the soil becomes sterile. Salts and The important thing to remember is that may be very important for our survival in heavy metals are “ingredients” which could you can do things which are not sustainable, the future. An example of a wetland, which accumulate and carry us over game-chang- but only for a while. You can do them to gain can still be saved, is the Okavango Delta in ing thresholds. Unfair allocation of a re- time, and as a temporary fix. But you need Botswana, where I’ve been doing research source is also a situation which might not an exit strategy. China’s exit strategy is two- for the last 12 years or so. If the interna-

90 Climate Change and Energy Our Common Future tional community can help the upstream where we ruin the water resources as a result. solution of technical problems but also of countries save water, the decrease of the In water terms, that means that for some socioeconomic problems which, as a rule, swamp area could still be stopped. countries increasing imports of “virtual wa- are more difficult to solve and time-consum- ter” in the form of grain will play a big role. ing. Sadly, there’s no doubt in my mind that Hope for the Future There are less sweeping, more local op- the water resources remaining for natural All this is not to say the situation is hopeless. tions, like rainwater harvesting, new dams ecosystems will further decrease in favor of If we want to solve these water problems, we and the desalination of seawater. Wastewater agriculture. must start with the biggest user: Agriculture. recycling can increase the water we have at Generally, I think humankind will have There is no other way. We could make dra- our disposal. And resettlement of people and to allocate a larger portion of its income to matic strides in water conservation – on the birth control are ways to reduce demand for food and water in the future. Food has be- order of 1,000 cubic kilometers per year – by water and the products made from water. come less and less expensive over the last implementing improved technology. Nowa- But of course these all carry costs, whether century. This is not a natural law – the food days, if a Pakistani farmer takes one cubic in terms of energy or political capital. price fluctuations we have seen in the last meter of water out of a reservoir and brings few years are an indicator that this time is it to his or her field, half is lost on the way. Water Saving over. If we allocate enough of our resources Half of that is lost in the field itself to non- How much more water do we really need? to the problem, we can do anything; but productive evaporation from the bare soil Taking into account population growth, sustainably solving the world’s water prob- or seepage. And when you bring the grain unsustainable practices, and mitigation of lems will come at a high price, and that to your granaries, about 40 percent of it is climate change, plus agrofuels, we will need means more money spent on food. lost to fungi, rats, and other avoidable pests, 4,000 to 6,000 cubic kilometers more per As an engineer, I’m optimistic about our making a final efficiency of water use of year. If we cut out agrofuels, which at present ability to overcome the water problems, around 10 percent. It could be easily dou- are disastrous for the world’s poor, we still given the political will to do it. But I’m less bled, which means producing the same need 3,000 to 4,000 cubic kilometers more certain that we can allocate the resources on amount of food with half the water. Food per year, either in increased resources or the Earth in an equitable way to all of its losses occur also in rich countries like Ger- water saved. The task is enormous, if we inhabitants. That’s the really big problem, many or Austria, where food worth 300 eu- consider that the present blue-water use of and unfortunately I have no answer for ros is thrown in the garbage per person, per about 4,500 cubic kilometers per year cannot that. year. About 10 per- cent of the food sold “There's no doubt ... the water This is a condensed version of a speech in supermarkets is resources remaining for natural given at the OCF conference’s sessions thrown away before ecosystems will further decrease.” on Climate Change and Energy. the package is ever More can be found at opened. These are all places where we can be increased substantially. The potential of www.ourcommonfuture.de/kinzelbach really save a lot with smarter management. all water-saving and resource-enhancing op- Another important technological ap- tions is on the order of 3,000 cubic kilom- plication is increasing the yield of rain-fed eters. Any remaining discrepancy will most agriculture. A big chunk of our food comes probably be covered by taking green water from rain-fed fields, and making this area from natural ecosystems. more efficient through the use of biotech- There are already serious regional water nology – for example by breeding drought- problems. We don’t have to wait for the fu- resistant and high-yielding strains, perhaps ture to see water scarcity. But these problems using genetically modified organisms – will are increasing in intensity for the reasons I be an important tool. have described. Part of our present water supply is not sustainable. And climate Division of Labor change will increase the pressure on water And then, of course, there is the increasing sources. efficiency of the international division of The only way to avoid a global water and labor. We should grow wheat where there is food crisis, in my opinion, is to do without a marginal advantage of growing wheat, agrofuels and to use our water much better rather than growing wheat in the desert than we do today. This involves not only the

91 Green Energy

The Third Revolution

“We stand today on the verge of another grand transformation.”

Nebojsa Nakicenovic is deputy director of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and professor of energy economics at the Vienna University of Technology.

92 Climate Change and Energy Our Common Future and steam was followed by the “age” of oil Universal Access Nebojsa Nakicenovic argues that we and gas, internal combustion engine, elec- In many ways, the industrial revolution has need nothing short of an energy rev- tricity and numerous other technologies, propelled only half of the global population olution comparable with the Neolithic and institutional and social changes. The explo- into affluence. About three billion people the industrial revolutions to achieve further sive development initiated with the indus- still have to cook with solid fuels, about half development in the world and goals of a trial revolution is still under way. a billion with coal and two and a half with sustainable, equitable future. Addressing the The last two centuries of this unprec- noncommercial biomass. Of these, about Our Common Future conference ses­sion on edented development in the world have half a billion live in sub-Saharan Africa; the Climate Change in Hannover, Nakicenovic – improved the human condition enormous- rest are mostly in Asia. Many of these people an expert in long-term patterns of tech­- ly. The gross world product now stands at either have no or inadequate and unreliable n­ological and climate change – said the next almost ten thousand dollars per capita, access to electricity. revolution will take investment in research which is sufficient to provide for a good Universal access to energy services is a and deployment, sound policy, ingenuity average quality of life. However, at the same prerequisite for development and is thus an and above all commitment. time, inequities are increasing and the essential development goal in itself. There is “bottom billion” has to live on barely a dol- another, little-known dark side to this lack lar a day. A predominant social issue that of access. The World Health Organization Before discussing possible future devel- is increasingly becoming a major preoccu- estimates that on the order of one and half opments it is instructive to first look at our pation for world leaders is addressing social to two million children die prematurely each past. Humanity has evolved in the more re- inequality and poverty, especially in the year from respiratory diseases related to in- cent history through major revolutions. Go- developing world. These contrasting devel- door air pollution that is caused by cooking ing back a few million years, human beings opmental patterns have not only resulted with an open fire in enclosed rooms. Provid- lived as hunters and gatherers. This way in increasing gaps between the poor and ing access to energy will have a health co- only a few million people could be sustained the rich but also in adverse environmental benefit as well. The challenge is to provide on the planet. The Neolithic revolution, impacts on all scales, from indoor air both upfront investments and adequate sub- some five to ten thousand years ago, led to pollution to climate change and biodiver- sidies for “priming the development pump” the domestication of plants and animals. sity loss. until access can enable productive activities This innovation resulted eventually in the We stand today on the verge of another that generate income and make energy serv- development of agriculture and city-states, grand transformation or revolution. In ices more affordable. Other co-benefits in both of which enormously expanded the terms of demographic change, we are at a addition to health would include time re- niche of humans on this planet. This trans- crossroads: Most population projections leased from collecting solid fuels for other formative change can be also seen as the first indicate another 50 percent increase in the productive activities. energy revolution: Enhanced productivity global population, to about nine billion peo- The problem is not one of lack of en- in agriculture enabled to harness human and ple by mid-century, followed by a decline to ergy resources or renewable potentials. From animal muscle power and thereby provide about or below the current level of seven coal and oil shale to frozen methane, there the essential mechanical energy for basic billion. All of that increase will essentially are ample occurrences of hydrocarbons, human needs, from building settlements, be in cities. Already, more than 50 percent many of which could be economically infrastructures required for essential activi- of the global population lives in cities. Urban tapped in the future provided that appropri- ties from water pumping to mobility and population will probably double to about ate technologies are deployed and environ- food processing. six to seven billion people in the second half mental compatibility resolved. The vast By the year 1700, there were about 900 of the century. quantities of carbon in resources also indi- million people on the Earth exceeding one The combination of rapid urbanization, cate that the planetary boundaries associ- billion shortly after the 1800s. About this end of population growth and approaching ated with climate change would indeed period came the Industrial Revolution, the planetary boundaries mark the possible present the ultimate limit to future extrac- second major energy transformation in the emergence of the third grand transforma- tion of hydrocarbons. This means that in Earth’s history. The inanimate sources of tion to emissions-free development path- the future there is an urgent need to use al- energy with the development of the steam ways. One of the major challenges is to ternative, non-carbon sources of energy or engine and other innovations were able to provide sustainable access to energy and decarbonize fossil energy sources. This can replace human and animal work and there- ecosystem services. These include food and be done by carbon capture and storage tech- by further expand global population to water for the half of the humanity that’s es- nologies. Many of the components have seven billion people today. The “age” of coal sentially excluded from global prosperity. been in use by the oil industry for enhanced

93 oil extraction, however the quantities of from the atmosphere. A possible technology projects in the works to tap the solar energy separated carbon to be stored in the case of is sustainable biomass with carbon capture from remote deserts such as from the Sahara fossil energy decarbonization would be and storage. From the energy point of view, to supply power to Europe and sub-Saharan truly gigantic (in orders of gigatons of car- nothing short of a revolution is necessary to Africa or from the Gobi desert into metro- bon dioxide). Storage possibilities can pose bring the changes required to achieve such politan areas of coastal China. With advanced limitations as well as potential risks and the radical emissions reductions. The key ques- nuclear technologies, in principle we could do need to store carbon for millennia to come. tion is whether the vigorous decarbonization the same. This kind of revolutionary change Uranium resources are also vast and is possible over the next four to five decades would occur at a number of levels, from local with advanced fuel cycles practically infinite. and whether this transformational change and distributed to centralized generation. The In this respect the nuclear option could lead would bring other benefits beyond the direct very nature of energy end use would be un- to a substantive reduction of carbon dioxide ones for the energy system and climate. dergoing fundamental transformation toward emissions by replacing fossil energy. The more self-organization and Internet-like limitations however are due to risks of ac- Transformational Change structures and integration. cidents as the Fukushima plants have expe- Fundamental, game-changing energy trans- The emerging new energy systems rienced in the aftermath of the gigantic formations are needed for a shift toward re­quire two complementary co-evolutions – tsunami in 2011. Furthermore, there are more sustainable development paths. By one is technological and the other institu- inherent risks of proliferation of fissile ma- significant investment in new technologies tional. With new technologies and systems, terials and the need to store the waste prod- and decarbonization multiple co-benefits new business models and institutional ar- ucts for millennia. may be achieved – from provision of afford- rangements will emerge. All of these com- Fortunately, renewable energy potentials able access to energy services and creation plementary and co-evolving transformations are also vast. The economic potential of re- of new business and economic opportunities would imply and require market, regulatory newables is in the range and may even exceed to averting the threat of climate change. De- and behavioral changes. the current global energy requirements. The carbonization of the global economy is such technical potential is truly huge and for ob- a paradigm-changing transformation. In the Sustained Investments vious reasons solar energy potential is prac- energy area, this implies a shift from tradi- Using a holistic and integrated approach, tically inexhaustible. tional energy sources, in the case of those researchers at IIASA (2011) have identified A robust conclusion is that we are not who are excluded from access, to clean fos- management and policy options that could really limited in terms of energy potentials sils and modern renewable energy. It also bring about the transformational change of or resources. We may be limited by our in- requires a shift from fossil energy sources to energy systems. The possible benefits of this genuity, by the capability of our economic carbon-free and carbon-neutral energy ser- transformation, or energy revolution, would system, and by the will of our political in- vices in the more developed parts of the include: stitutions to achieve the energy revolution world. under way toward a more sustainable future. In all cases, the transformational change • Vigorous reduction of greenhouse But, in principle, energy resources and po- means a vigorous improvement of energy gas emissions in order to avert tentials are there. efficiencies, from supply to end use, expand- dangerous climate change; ing shares of renewables, more natural gas • Universal access to affordable energy Vigorous Decarbonization and less coal, vigorous deployment of car- services by 2030; The real limitations to future energy use are bon capture and storage, and in some cases • Improved air quality and improved the environmental and planetary bound- (where it is socially acceptable and econom- human health and life expectancy; aries, particularly climate change. To keep ically viable) also nuclear energy. • Improved energy security (reducing the Earth’s climate within two degrees of its All of these energy technologies need to reliance on energy imports and preindustrial temperature, future global mesh with emerging innovations in energy reliability of energy systems); emissions need to reach a peak this decade, networks and end use in the direction of smart • Avoided costs associated with the proceed to decline by about 80 percent by integration. There is enormous potential for adverse impacts of climate change; and the middle of the century, falling to zero or most renewables such as solar energy. High • Avoided energy subsidies. even becoming “negative” in the second half shares of intermittent renewable energy re- of the century. The later the peak, the more quire development of smart grids to harmo- Preliminary analyses indicate that these “negative” the emissions need to become. By nize supply and demand that would also ­additional benefits outweigh most of the negative emissions we understand the situ- include storage and gas power plants as reserve investments associated with achieving the ation where carbon is effectively removed capacity (or virtual storage). There are even revolutionary energy transformation. Fur-

94 Climate Change and Energy Our Common Future thermore, in many cases, the benefits are US$100 to 300 billion per annum. This does policies applied at local, regional, and na- demonstrable in the short term and on na- not include economic impacts that could tional scales and across sectors. tional and local scales. Thus, there is a strong result from ensuing political instability such argument for an integrated development as in North Africa and the Middle East or Conclusions strategy, focusing on energy and climate as other disruptions to oil and gas supplies. Greenhouse gas mitigation through an in- the key entry points with many co-benefits The development of technologies to tegrated energy and climate strategy is en- that achieve other environmental and social reduce greenhouse gas emissions, such as vironmentally, socially, and economically objectives. carbon capture and storage or solar photo- viable if the many co-benefits and avoided The above-mentioned benefits can col- voltaics, serve as an example of how “green costs are considered. Governments must lectively be seen as the motivation for a growth” can stimulate economic growth. look beyond short-term costs and consider “green growth” and decarbonization devel- Green development pathways also generate both the short- and long-term benefits. This would bridge the “gap” that exists today be- “‘Negawatts’ are cheaper than ... kilowatts.“ tween the needed investments for the en- ergy transformation and the possible opment pathway, one that is necessary to local employment, particularly in the case co-benefits that today cannot be fully ap- move both mature and emerging economies of sustainable energy options such as re- propriated by those who would provide the toward a more sustainable future. newables and efficiency improvements. The necessary finance. The most cost-effective greenhouse gas co-benefits, including avoided costs, associ- The cumulative nature of technological mitigation measures are increased energy ated with the transformational change as- and associated institutional changes, all efficiency and energy conservation. Energy sociated with the next energy revolution compounded by deep uncertainties, require efficiency improvements are among the offset most of the investment costs. innovations to be adopted as early as pos- most cost-effective options. “Negawatts” are These policies also advance the broader sible in order to lead through experimenta- cheaper than capacities for additional kilo- UN Millennium Development Goals. En- tion and evolutionary changes to lower costs watts. They lead to significant and long-term ergy is cited as the missing MDG, recognized and wider diffusion in the following dec- energy and emissions savings. by ministers and government representa- ades. The longer we wait to introduce these Increased use of renewable energy, ex- tives from 71 nations, including Africa, advanced technologies, the higher the re- pansion of nuclear capacity, and improve- Latin America, and India in a declaration quired costs and emissions reduction will ments in energy efficiency and conservation calling for 2012 to be designated by the be as well as the “lock-in” into the old struc- would reduce both greenhouse gas emis- United Nations as the “International Year of tures. The transformational change toward sions and other airborne pollutants such as Energy Access” and the General Assembly more sustainable futures requires enhanced sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and par- Resolution to declare 2012 the “Interna- research, development and deployment ticulate matter. This would not only reduce tional Year of Sustainable Energy for All.” (public and private) efforts as well as early the investment required for pollution con- These calls were reiterated at the Cancun investments to achieve accelerated diffusion trol, but the resulting improved air quality climate talks in 2010, further reinforcing the and adoption of advanced energy technolo- would improve human health and lower relevance of energy to climate objectives. gies and systems. The possible benefits of health costs. Energy would be an important entry point such revolutionary change would outweigh The estimated co-benefit value of reduc- for addressing sustainable development at the needed investments. Achievement of ing the emissions of air pollutants – including the Rio+20 Global Summit in 2012. universal access to energy services represents particulate matter, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen The policies and decisions on future a humble and doable portion of the total oxides – is in the range of US$400 to $500 energy sources, the efficiency of their con- investment needs. billion per year and that up to 50 percent of version into energy carriers such as electric- The evident crisis of the “old” develop- air pollution emissions could be avoided by ity, and the changing nature of energy end ment patterns is an opportunity for the deep cuts in greenhouse emissions. use in providing goods and services for hu- “new” ones to emerge and a possible begin- Many energy scenarios include addi- man well-being, will profoundly enhance ning of the third energy revolution. tional costs for improving energy security our ability to reduce poverty, improve through limiting energy imports and sup- health, minimize adverse environmental This is an updated version of a speech porting larger domestic energy production, impacts, and avert dangerous climate given at the OCF conference’s sessions on often despite higher costs. The co-benefits change, whilst still empowering develop- Climate Change and Energy. of an integrated energy and climate strategy ment. Progress, however requires a diverse would avoid energy security costs of some and integrated portfolio of actions and

95 Talking about Climate Change

“As scientists, we want to be as neutral as possible.” Liadi Mudashiru

“We should find positive metaphors to communicate.” Clare Saunders

102 Climate Change and Energy Our Common Future Research results and respective news about just switch off and bury their heads in the climate change have become so common sand. So instead of saying “we need to avert that the topic threatens to fade into the dangerous climate change,” we say “we need background. At the OCF conference, we to look after this wonderful planet that we’ve asked two young researchers from different got.” fields – British political scientist Clare Dr. Saunders, you’re a social scientist. Dr. Saunders and chemist and energy research- Mudashiru, you deal primarily with en- er Liadi Mudashiru – to discuss ways re- ergy research. What can you learn from searchers could boost public understand- each others’ academic disciplines? ing and engagement in this important Saunders: I would really like to know more issue. about carbon capture and storage on the OCF Fellow Liadi Mu- basis of some of the things I’ve been study- dashiru, born in 1972, In the field of climate change, there’s is a research associate ing. For example in 2008 in Kingsnorth in always new research coming out that at Newcastle Univer- Kent, there was a big demonstration with trumps the old assumptions. Sorting sity. His background is around 2,000 protestors. They were there to through that can be overwhelming for the in chemistry and geo- protest against new coal-fired power stations sciences. For the past average person. How do you break through being built. It was called partial carbon cap- three years, he has to people who are desensitized to this focused on the clean ture storage. I don’t know if the activists topic? use of fossil fuels. knew exactly what partial carbon capture Mudashiru: It is part of our responsibility storage is. I’m curious whether the activist as researchers to be able to communicate discourses make sense from a scientific per- what we do in the laboratory and behind the spective. Which science do they draw from scenes to the public. Over the past five years, to create their arguments? And how? And I’ve been a UK Science and Engineering why? ambassador. As part of the program, young Mudashiru: I do agree with you, there is people like me go to secondary schools. We a lot of synergy. What we are trying to do is use our energy, enthusiasm and passion for not downgrade the risk but better commu- science to introduce a new young generation nicate the risk to the public. There have been to the subject. We also have a national or- various disasters but public engagement has ganization called the British Council for the been very successful. For instance, in France, Advancement of Science. We host an an- the oil and gas company Total successfully nual science festival in the Houses of Parlia- built a carbon capture storage facility with- ment. This has given us the opportunity and OCF Fellow Clare Saun- out any protests. It’s because from day one the platform to talk directly to the policy ders, born in 1975, the company embedded public engagement makers. is a Research Council in the project management. It was very Saunders: I’ve gone to schools to do some UK Fellow in energy transparent. You could go on the Internet to outreach work. I try to give lively talks and and climate politics see what they will do with the factory. So I at the University of relate things to people’s individual lifestyles. Southampton. She is a think there is room for a lot of collaboration Also, more of my work now is shifting to- passionate advocate when it comes to communicating with the wards understanding behavior change. Gen- for the climate in her public. eral research on behavior change shows that private life as well, Is there a danger of oversimplification we should find positive metaphors to com- organizing protests when it comes to explaining climate sci- and training camps municate about environmental problems. for environmental ence? So if we have headline articles saying, “Dan- activists. Saunders: Policy makers want to know: ger! Danger! We’re all going to die!” people “What is the truth? Where do we stand?” But

103 science is always this continually evolving Mudashiru: I think that has always been the Mudashiru: I think there are lessons to be process. There is no such thing as smooth danger. People in the scientific community, learned. I think it will be in our own interests facts. When you communicate to school- we think we know it all. But the public doesn’t to be as transparent as possible. And people children, you can really simplify the message. like that. They want to be part of the process. like Clare in her profession can help us do When you communicate with the govern- They are very skeptical. They think we over- that. Because we scientists – we are not very ment, there is a real danger in saying, “This simplify risk – that we cover things up – es- good at communicating. But things are is what we know. This is the definitive fact pecially when your research is being funded changing. on this.” Also, it’s important to take the hu- by big corporations like Shell. But as scien- man factor into account with anything that’s tists, we want to be as neutral as possible. technological. All technological solutions Saunders: But it’s so hard isn’t it? Because have to become politically acceptable and you can say “the science shows this, but this socially acceptable as well. Therefore, some is the confidence interval we have.” And the social scientists suggest that what we need minute you say that it loses the headline is a more discursive forum. That way, when impact. And there’s no way around it. It’s a carbon capture and storage facility is pro- the difference between making something posed, for example, you can expand the snappy and being truthful and neutral at the conversation. same time.

104 Climate Change and Energy Our Common Future Green Urban Design Cities, the Cities only occupy about two percent of the romanticized as being so natural.” Transport Earth’s surface, but they consume the ma- is another area where cities have the capac- jority of the planet’s resources. Balancing Labs of the ity to lead the way for the rest of the world. the demands for food, fuel, and water with “You could just use electric cars in the city, a finite natural supply is a tough equation but only hire a petrol car when you want to to solve. Yet cities are also fertile spaces for Future drive long distances. Or you could simply change and experimentation. Environmen- improve high-speed rail lines between cities. tal governance expert James Evans, a par- Or you could have electric taxi vehicles in a ticipant in the OCF workshop on Climate city pool,” Evans says. “It’s about changing Justice, says when we stop looking at cities how people think. If you get them to buy as the problem, we may be able to unleash into it, it’ll happen.” city dwellers’ capacity to solve the issues of Hamburg, Germany, for instance, is in the the future. midst of an environmental experiment with its hydrogen-powered bus program. Hydrogen James Evans has a message for the has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas, world: The prevailing image of cities as giant pollution, and improve energy security in masses of concrete has to change. ­Europe, so the city supported implementation That perception doesn’t fit reality in of a hydrogen-powered bus fleet. The innova- many cities, which actually demonstrate tive program works because there’s already a incredible environmental diversity. Birds public transport network in place, the buses build nests in the eaves of apartment build- only need to make short trips, and locals are ings. Trees crack through concrete sidewalks. open to change. By initially experimenting Flowers sprout on the embankments of busy with this technology in a city, scientists work roads. When given the opportunity, nature out problems first, and can then spread the flourishes in cities. program to other places that don’t have the The diverse city landscape can provide same level of preexisting infrastructure. OCF Fellow James Evans, born in 1977, rich resources like cleaner air and water and But to turn urban spaces into effective is a lecturer in the geography depart- access to healthy locally grown foods. For ment at the University of Manchester and laboratories, Evans says, individual cities scientists, the city is potentially a ready- author of Urban Regeneration in the UK: need to create public and private partner- made laboratory for ideas that have the Theory and Practice. ships to encourage such experimentation. power to change the world for the better. “The lesson of my research would be that The density and diversity of the cityscape we need to make it possible and easy for lends itself to innovative solutions to chal- droughts. The indigenous plants also pro- people to try new things – I’m talking about lenges involving global warming and climate vide natural filtration of water and air taint- residents living on a street, neighborhood change, says Evans, an urban sustainability ed by pollution. associations, municipal governments, or a researcher at the University of Manchester. A food program in Vancouver, Canada, company that wants to deploy new technol- Cities are suited to this kind of experi- connects residents willing to share their ogy,” says Evans. mentation because researchers have access yards with amateur farmers who want to Supporting experimentation in the area to diverse populations of people with a va- raise crops. Those crops are then sold cheap- of urban sustainability can include reward- riety of needs and expectations. There is ly at local markets. Innovative community- ing companies and individuals who cut also usually more money and infrastructure led approaches like this improve quality of down their energy use or better educating to draw upon. life for residents. residents on ways to shrink their environ- Take urban gardening: Brazil’s largest “Residential gardens can be amongst the mental footprints. “We need a social trans- southern city, Curitiba, pays residents to most biodiverse habitats on the planet,” says formation in how people think and work,” plant indigenous plants in their gardens in Evans, who grew up on an English farm. Evans says. “But this is feasible. The problem order to preserve biodiversity and prevent “There’s more biodiversity in many gardens is helping people understand that another soil degradation that could lead to floods or than in parts of rural England that we have way is better.”

105 Global Young Faculty Project “Facing Climate Change"

Turning Google Earth Into a Global Warming Teaching Tool

Using a tool that’s high tech, easy to use across to the public in an accessible and eye- but it should be ready to go online soon. and – most importantly – free, members opening way. Once it goes live, users will be able to down- of the Global Young Faculty put together a Click on a spot in Brazil, for example, load the layer and install it into Google Earth way to reach out to the public over the and a documentary on the country’s role in themselves. A future goal is getting Google Internet. The result is called “Facing climate change pops up. Click on another to include it in downloadable releases of ­Climate Change,” and it could be coming spot in the Arctic and there’s a simulation Google Earth, something the team is cur- soon to a computer screen near you. of changes in sea ice coverage as global rently negotiating. warming happens. And if the public finds it useful, there When the members of the Global Young Other spots on the world map offer pre- are all kinds of possibilities for future incar- Faculty Climate Change team came togeth- sentations by or interviews with prominent nations of “Facing Climate Change.” More er in 2009, one thing was immediately clear scientists, among other neat features. case studies from other regions and simula- for their common project: An in-depth The idea is to give laypeople the most tions of the consequences of global warming ­scientific project targeted to the academic current scientific information on climate are potential add-ons. community wouldn’t make a lot of sense. change without forcing them to slog through For now, though, Leese and his col- “We all came from very different disci- complex academic papers, decipher tough leagues are just happy that they created a plines,” says team member Florian Leese, a equations, or attend a seminar far from successful project. Even among the hard- researcher in the Department of Animal home. Instead, they can just point and click charging academics, there was always a nig- Ecology, Evolution, and Biodiversity at the to explore the changing world from the com- gling fear that they might not be able to pull Ruhr-Universität Bochum. “Many of us fort of their home or office. By improving the thing off. Indeed, much of the most im- didn’t necessarily have a lot of specific ex- communication, unconventional and suc- portant work on the layer happened in just pertise in climate change. But we wanted to cessful strategies to confront climate change the last few weeks and months before the close the gap between scientific knowledge in remote parts of the world may become Our Common Future conference. and public perception.” best-practice examples for others. Demonstrating the team’s work at a The team decided their project would While “Facing Climate Change” appears mammoth touch-screen station in the lobby have to reach out to the masses. And the slick and easy to use, creating it wasn’t so of the Essen Philharmonic during the Our obvious choice to do that? That free high- simple. Team members had to figure out Common Future conference, Leese sounded tech tool called Google Earth. how to program the layer, which is similar as proud as he was relieved. “I think we In 2010, the team created a Google Earth to Google Earth layers that automatically planted a seed for something pretty cool and “layer” – a sort of overlay on the Google display all the restaurants or hotels in an important,” he said. “This may really going Earth map that gives users specialized infor- area, for example. to help educate the public on climate change mation – focusing on the different local and It was also hard work coordinating with realities.” global faces of climate change, its impli­ colleagues from around the world to create cations, and best-practice examples to con- the necessary content. Much of it is original More can be found at front it. and created exclusively for the layer. “Facing www.facing-climate-change.org Called “Facing Climate Change,” the Climate Change” isn’t ready to be officially layer aims to get basic scientific information released yet due to some copyright issues,

107 Climate Governance

Klaus Töpfer was German Federal Minister from 1987 to 1998, headed the United Nations Environment Program from 1998 to 2006, and is currently director of the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies in Potsdam, Germany. “Take small steps, make incremental changes, and you'll see the world is changing much faster than you expected.”

108 Climate Change and Energy Our Common Future In a world where pessimism reigns, it takes very, very critical assessment is that this out- real leaders to keep pressing for change. come is now misused by people who say ‘first Former German environment minister the politicians and the Klaus Töpfer chaired the workshop on diplomats need to find “It would be hard to convince ­Climate Justice and Climate Governance a solution, and then we at OCF. He challenged the leaders of the can act against climate politicians and the public in future to attack the issue on multiple fronts change.’ Developing other countries to do something and talked about some of the obstacles countries are afraid the United States is not doing.” to progress faced by politicians trying to that first the developed negotiate a global climate agreement. countries overused the environment, and now they want to misuse Has it become harder to push for cli- their sins as a blocking instrument against Are young scientists energized enough mate justice in this economic climate? the development of developing countries. about this issue? Töpfer: Without any doubt, the financial We have to change this mentality drasti- Töpfer: I think so. From what I’ve seen at and economic crisis concentrated a lot of cally. the OCF conference, they are really enthu-

political focus away from climate change. Is it possible to achieve all this within the siastically linked with fairness, with justice, More and more people are saying, ‘Maybe existing climate-negotiation system? with the fact that you cannot have a peaceful first we have to solve the economic crisis, Töpfer: I’m always afraid that when you go world in the future without stabilizing the and then we can come back to the climate.’ to change the whole system, you go nowhere. gaps between rich and poor. That injustice We are fighting very hard against this posi- Holistic approaches are destined to fail. I’m is a recipe for conflicts and wars. If we can tion. We know that we can only solve both much more interested in having a clear di- overcome these differences while making rection and then going sure the environment is not punished and “We must make a green economic that way. Take small misused we will have a good basis for the steps, make incremental future as well. solution possible. We must create changes, and you’ll see a green industrial revolution.” the world is changing much faster than you crises together. We must make a green eco- expected. All those asking for the “Big Bang” nomic solution possible. We must create a change, they’ve been asking for years, and green industrial revolution. I believe more they forget to act. and more people are aware of these neces- Can serious progress be made without the sities, and understand this is not a prescrip- United States? tion for destroying our way of life, but for Töpfer: No. Of course we need the United changing it in a way that is less energy-in- States. That’s easy to understand – the Unit- tensive and consumes less than we did be- ed States leads the world in consumption fore. But there’s still a lot to do. and production, not only of CO2 but of a lot Was the failure of the Copenhagen nego- of other things. It is the superpower in the tiations a sign that there’s a fundamental world, and therefore it would be absolutely disconnect between the developed and de- unconvincing to go forward without the veloping world on climate change issues? United States. It would be very hard to con- Töpfer: I’m not as pessimistic about the vince politicians and the public in other Copenhagen outcome as some. Whoever’s countries to do something the United States aware of the real situation in the world is not doing. It’s in the best interest of the couldn’t have expected a legally binding United States to lead the fight against envi- agreement coming out of the conference. My ronmental destruction.

109 Impressions from the conference.

110 Climate Change and Energy Our Common Future 4 Questions, 8 Answers

“What fact makes you the most optimistic about our ­common future?" Hüttl: We’re globally investing more in research and education, and the better we are educated the more research we can do. Whether the research will be applied is not in the hands of scientists, but in the hands of politicians and business leaders. Schellnhuber: I’m optimistic about the potential humankind has to overcome crises. But I’m pessimistic that we will make use of it.

“What is the greatest challenge facing us in the next 25 years?" Hüttl: Higher consumption in the future means more pressure on resources, which makes resource efficiency the real challenge. Schellnhuber: We don’t have anything that might be called a global government, just a lot of nation-states playing poker. What we need is a bottom-up movement, supported by electronic media, to organize global citizens.

“What piece of advice would you give young researchers in your field today?" Hüttl: Young researchers need soft skills – communication, management, leadership, teamwork – because the science of the future will mainly be done in teams. Schellnhuber: Try to get training in a field which shows you how the scientific method works, but don’t lose sight of the big picture.

“What was the most surprising insight you had at this conference?" Hüttl: It was clear that people really understand our common future lies in our hands, and we are responsible for it. We can influence it, and in a sustainable way.

Schellnhuber: I found it surprising we didn’t have a better turnout. To me, that shows people don’t care that much about our common future right now.

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber and Reinhard Hüttl served as scientific advisors for the OCF sessions on Climate Change. Schellnhuber is ­director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Hüttl is scientific director of the German Research Centre for ­Geosciences (GFZ) in Potsdam.

111 Future Technologies Introduction

In the world’s laboratories and research Wahlster: “The application of these innova- solutions include different fuel systems, smart departments, the technologies of tomorrow tions is already changing our lives.” cars and unorthodox ideas to get people out and the day after tomorrow are being devel- In their presentations, OCF participants of their auto-centered lifestyles – from new oped: Cars that can be steered with the gave a long list of examples that showed how forms of car sharing to traffic taxes. voices and glances of their drivers and that high tech is routine already, or will soon be Although inventing technologies in the warn of slippery streets ahead or maintain a making our everyday lives easier. Electronic realm of communication, mobility or produc- safe distance from other drivers. Refrigerators pill bottles can monitor a patient’s daily dos- tion takes great creativity, researchers say the that keep track of their own contents and ages and remind patients to take their med- most difficult part is not the idea phase – it create shopping lists when something’s about icine. And GPS systems can be harnessed to is implementation. This also applies to new to run out. Shipping containers that are help the elderly call for help any time they manufacturing technologies, product de- tracked by satellites and can be remotely need it. “There are more and more people sign, and the organization of global supply monitored to maintain their internal tem- over 60 who can now use these technologies chains. To design technology that improves peratures and external security. Cell phones to ensure their mobility and independent our future while taking resource efficiency that simultaneously translate what conversa- living,” says Wahlster. and sustainability into account, OCF speak- tion partners are saying. And humanoid ro- Participants in the sessions on “Mobil- ers say we must dismantle old ways of doing bots programmed to talk with people in a ity” and “The Factory of the Future” stressed things and re-imagine what is possible. lifelike way. the need for a broader perspective, including The technology is ready – the only ques- Modern technology will revolutionize social responsibility when developing new tion is whether society will have the foresight communication between people, between technologies. Just as it’s impossible to know and will to adopt seemingly inconvenient people and their machines, and even be- all the implications of an invention, it is im- solutions to pressing problems. “Everybody tween machines themselves. Wolfgang Wahl- portant to think about both the social and is obviously aware that changes are essen- ster, director of the German Research economic impacts technological develop- tial,” says Fritz Klocke, scientific advisor for Center for Artificial Intelligence and scien- ments may have, ideally through collabora- OCF and a renowned professor of manufac- tific advisor for the OCF session on Com- tion between academics and politicians turing technology and engineering at RWTH munication, is sure of it: “Most of the urgent across disciplines and geographic locations. Aachen University. But is the public truly problems of humankind can be solved using For instance, mobility researchers are col- prepared to hop on and take a ride into the information and communication technol- laborating with environmental engineers and future? ogy,” he says. It’s already clear to him that urban planners to think about new and bet- these developments are well under way. Says ter modes of transportation. Some of the

114 Future Technologies Our Common Future 1,966,500,000 people in the world were connected to the Internet in 2010.

1,000,000 Number of electric cars China plans to have on its roads by 2015, supported by $15 billion in investments.

50% of air pollution is caused by traffic.

37% of Internet users were located in Europe and North America in 2010.

Estimated number of mobile 5,000,000,000 phones in the world in 2011.

115 Virtual Communication

Putting a Friendly Face on the Technology of Tomorrow “Are virtual humans attractive conversation partners?”

Justine Cassell is the director of Carnegie Mellon University’s Human Computer Interaction Institute and a former researcher at the MIT Media Lab. She co- authored the 1998 book From Barbie to Mortal Kombat: Gender and Computer Games.

116 Future Technologies Our Common Future those newest technologies so that we main- figurations to convey particular meanings As computers grow ever more prev- tain a link with the past. and particular stances. The meanings that alent in our daily lives, there is a My methodology in pursuing these we make may differ from person to person growing sense of unease about the toll com- questions through the multidisciplinary lens and from culture to culture, but the ways puter-assisted communication is having on outlined above is to begin with the study of that we make meanings are the same. So, our society. In her keynote speech at the real humans and then to model virtual hu- for example, it appears to be the case that OCF conference, Carnegie Mellon Univer- mans on those real humans. I begin by try- virtually all people in all cultures use gesture sity professor Justine Cassell said only by ing to understand those things that we take in order to clarify what they are saying in studying how humans communicate with for granted about ourselves and our interac- words. And virtually all people use eye gaze each other, can we design machines that tions with others. Simple things, like what to manage the conversation. And virtually emulate the complexities and subtleties of we do with our eyebrows when we talk, and all people modulate the tone of their voices human interaction. That way, future tech- more complex things like how our eyes smile to add meaning to the content of the words nology can wear a more human face, setting when we are truly happy, whereas only the they are saying. users at ease and bringing us closer togeth- corners of our mouths turn up when we These kinds of studies of human com- er as a society. want to look happy. Why do I sometimes municative behavior have been carried out look you in the eye and sometimes look away for decades, but only 17 years ago did we when we are talking? It turns out that eye- first use such studies of human communica- There was a time when communication brow raises accompany important points in tive behavior to build a virtual human that was about talking face to face, person to per- conversation, and that eye gaze is a way of behaved in the same way as we do. And son, in close proximity, in real time. There managing turn taking. only 15 years ago did we first use these stud- was a time when collaboration was about Studying these minute behaviors of hu- ies of human behavior to build a virtual working together in the same room, assisting man communication microscopically serves ­human that could communicate with real each other in concrete tasks. Today, com- two purposes: First of all, it allows us to bet- humans in some of the same ways as humans munication is about iChat or Skype or leav- ter understand humans themselves – how communicate with one another. ing each other messages on the Facebook we function, how we differ from other ani- For example, we watched hundreds of wall. And collaboration is about using a ro- mals, how we interact with one another. people describing a house. From those ob- bot to do surgery in South America while I And, secondly, only by studying these servations, we were able to draw generaliza- move a robot arm in Sydney, Australia; it is minute but utterly human details of com- tions about how people use speech and about a group of people collaborating to munication can we maintain them in our gesture together to contribute to their com- create an article on Wikipedia. virtual human interlocutors of the future. municative goals – communicative goals While the communication and collabo- In turn, only by maintaining these utterly which have to do with describing a house to ration technologies of today are exciting and human details of communication in virtual the person sitting across from them. Based raise our hopes about what will be possible humans can we ensure that virtual humans on this model of communication, we were one day, they also raise fears about the will draw out the very human patterns of able to implement a virtual human – a real- ­future. They raise fears about a day in which communication in us. By watching real hu- tor, in fact – who understood the questions we might lose the skills of personal relation- mans interact with the virtual humans, I get of the people talking to her, and who re- ships and the ties to community that make a sense of where the gaps lie in our know­ sponded to them, based on the model of us human. In my work I ask how we can ledge of real humans. Then I can return to human – human speech and gesture. preserve and develop those skills that are studying real humans, and the iterative pro- It is important to note that the virtual most representative of our human existence, cess of study begins again. human’s speech and gesture were not script- those values we take to be most important. In looking at conversational behavior ed, they actually came from her understand- I pursue these questions by asking how over the years, it has become clear that ing of what the human asked her, her we can use what we know about the human meaning is made up out of language and reasoning about the best answer to make in body, about human social interaction, and intonation and hand gestures and posture response to him, her knowledge of human about the human mind to develop new tech- and facial movements, among other sourc- language and gesture and facial movements, nologies – that we don’t sacrifice what we es. Virtually all people use their faces and and her ability to synthesize all of those hold most dear about human existence. And their hands and their bodies and their eyes into conversation. I rely on the fields of anthropology, devel- (and so forth) to make meaning in conver- Now, you will notice that REA (the Real opmental psychology, literary theory, and sation. And in all people in all countries, Estate Agent) is not as beautiful as the ac- linguistics to inform the development of these embodied resources join in tight con- tresses from the movie Final Fantasy – in

117 fact, she does not even look as realistic. How- By this stage, we were fairly confident in “I thought she was pretty good. You know, ever, while Final Fantasy was filmed by ani- the accuracy of our models of human com- I can small-talk with somebody for a long mating the performance of real actors, REA munication, based on the way in which we time. It’s how I get comfortable with someone, is her own woman (one might say!). REA is collected the data, the hundreds of hours of and how I get to trust them, and understand based on an artificial intelligence engine and video we analyzed, and the accuracy of the how trustworthy they are, so I use that as a a natural language generation engine that models we implemented. But at this point tool for myself.” understands the notion of thinking about we had to ask ourselves whether the virtual And an introvert said: space and communicating one’s own repre- humans we were implementing were effec- “REA exemplifies some things that some sentation of the world. tive. That is, are virtual humans who act like people, for example my wife, would have sat REA constituted a breakthrough in how real humans attractive conversational part- down and chatted with her a lot more than I humans and computers communicate with ners? Do they get the task done? Are their would have. Her conversational style seemed one another. But the REA system was just a skills judged in the same way as real human to me to be more applicable to women, frank- first step in understanding what makes us skills are judged? ly, than to me. I come in and I shop and I get human through the use and study of vir- In order to evaluate our real estate agent the hell out. She seemed to want to start a tual humans, and in maintaining those we therefore asked people to work with REA basis for understanding each other, and I abilities and values in the digital world. In to look at apartments for rent. Some of the would glean that in terms of our business in- the years since REA was introduced in 1996, people worked with a version of REA with teraction as compared to chitchat. I will form we have pursued the methodology described social skills and some worked with a version a sense of her character as we go over our busi- above to further analyze human behavior, of REA who got right down to business. In ness as compared to our personal life. Where- and to implement it as my wife would want to know about her life into virtual humans. and her dog, whereas I really couldn’t give a No human conversa- “Technologies of today raise damn.” tion only concerns fears about the future.” We were pleased to have been able to facts and goals; all of evoke such strong feelings in the people who our conversations have a social component. fact, even though none of the experimental interacted with our virtual humans, and So a later version of REA gave her the abil- participants knew about the differences be- pleased that our study of human behavior ity to engage in small talk, or social chitchat. tween the two versions, and none of them resulted in virtual humans who were so re- In order to understand those abilities we knew the purpose of our study, we discov- alistic in their behaviors (even if not in their followed a genuine real estate agent around ered that there was quite a difference be- looks!). and analyzed the ways in which she used so- tween the two REAs. People preferred the As time has gone on, our study of hu- cial chitchat on the job. We found that the version of REA who was able to use small man behavior, and our implementation of realtor – and other people we observed – used talk; they thought she was smarter, and that models of human behavior into virtual hu- small talk in a very subtle way to establish a she understood their needs better – just like mans, has advanced beyond the building relationship, to avoid embarrassment, and to in the real world! Even more strikingly, how- blocks of turn-taking and acknowledgement get past conversational impasses. On the ba- ever, when we looked at the personality of and introducing new topics, past gesture and sis of those data, we were able to build a the people in our study, it turned out that it eye gaze and posture, to more social phe- model of the places in the conversation in was extroverts who most preferred the ver- nomena such as social chitchat and, most which she was likely to use small talk and the sion of REA who used small talk, while in- recently, culture and identity. We have been places in which she was likely to stick to the troverts didn’t care which version they used. able to understand more and more about And this, too, is those phenomena that make us most ­human, “Virtual humans are an impor- very similar to and that we most value, and the behaviors what happens in that signal those phenomena. And as we tant aspect of human-computer the real world, understand more about these phenomena interaction today.” where extroverts in humans, and as we collect more data engage in small about the behaviors that make them up, we task. And that model of small talk that we talk and appreciate small talk, while intro- are better able to build those behaviors into built from hundreds and hundreds of hours, verts might prefer to be left alone. virtual humans. not just looking at this real estate agent but For example, an extrovert who used the Most recently, we have begun to think also looking at sales people, allowed us to version of REA that engages in small talk, about the thorny but preeminently impor- build a virtual human who used small talk in and who did not know about the purpose tant questions of identity and culture. How her interactions with real humans. of the study, said to us: do we show others who we are? How do we

118 Future Technologies Our Common Future demonstrate our alliance and affiliation to school. In the United States, this dialect is behaviors and values that we prize. In fact, particular groups? As we have begun to called “mainstream American English,” or communication between real and virtual study this, and to read the literature from MAE. beings can be important for teaching and social psychology and anthropology, it has How do children use the different dia- learning. become clear that “national origin” is only lects they hear around them? Do they learn In 1772, the Droz brothers, Swiss clock- one aspect of who we are – in fact, each of to switch between the dialect spoken at makers, built a series of automatons that were us belongs to a number of different “cul- home and the dialect spoken at school? We able to carry out real human tasks, such as read in the educational literature writing and drawing, in the way that humans that children who do learn to do. Others followed the same path, and au- “We needn't fear that we switch into MAE at school are tomatons became quite popular. Although will lose the face-to-face more likely to do well on their these automatons were based on gears rather schoolwork – not because MAE than software, they were not so different from nature of interaction.” is a better version of English, but the virtual humans of today – and their because it is more accepted. Fol- presence as entertainment in drawing rooms tures.” I am American, and I am also fe- lowing our usual methodology, we asked if of the time began to worry people. As the male, a professor, from New York City, with we could observe how dialect is used in cul- German novelist E. T. A. Hoffmann wrote, years of living in France. Each of these as- ture, if we could build a model of its use, “The story of the automaton had struck deep pects of my identity is more important to and of switching between dialects, and then root into their souls and, in fact, a pernicious me, and to the people around me, at some if we could build that model of dialect and mistrust of human figures in general had moments than others. And I highlight the cultural identity into a virtual human. begun to creep in.” importance of each aspect of identity as I Our research with this virtual peer Every time a new technology comes on move from context to context throughout showed that children recognize the cultural the scene, whether it’s an automaton or a the week. Not only do I dress differently, identity of the virtual peer as being the same but my accent changes, my gestures adapt, as their own cultural identity. And when we "No human conver- I move with more excitement or with more built the ability to switch dialects into the reserve. virtual peer, we found that children are will- sation only concerns I might speak differently with my eld- ing to switch dialects to match the dialect of facts and goals.” erly parents than with the college students the virtual peer. We believe that by maintain- I teach. From this perspective, cultural iden- ing the important aspects of cultural iden- tity can be seen as the demonstration in a tity that we all prize, we may have built an virtual human, our tendency is to fear it. But particular context of a set of behaviors and educational tool that could help children if we make sure that those automatons or practices that show other members of the learn the mainstream dialect that they need virtual humans are based on us and not group, and members of other groups, one’s for school. solely on the capacity of gears or computers, cultural community membership. In order to maintain those aspects of without reference to our minds, hearts With this in mind, we set about explor- human identity that we prize, virtual hu- and communities, then we will carry our ing issues of identity and culture that were mans must have minds, they must have so- ­humanness far into the next century and more subtle than national origin, and that cial skills, and they must fit into beyond. come up frequently in people’s perceptions communities of identity. In the long run, we of who they are. Most languages are spoken needn’t fear that we will lose the face-to-face This is a condensed version of a speech in different ways in different parts of the nature of interaction and be consigned to given at the OCF conference’s session on country. In Germany, for example, German only using text to communicate. Virtual hu- Communication. More can be found at is spoken quite differently in the north than mans are an important aspect of human – www.ourcommonfuture.de/cassell in the south, and the way one speaks German computer interaction today, and their plays quite an important role in how others importance continues to grow. And we see you, and how you identify yourself. needn’t fear that we must give up our hu- The United States is no exception, and manity to live in the future. Studies of real so we studied some American subcultures humans can and do play an essential role in and dialect use. Of course, while language is the development of future technologies. And spoken differently in different parts of the studies of those technologies can shed light country, it is often the case that one dialect on our human behavior, as well as helping is felt to be the most appropriate for use in us develop technologies that maintain those

119 Postfossil Mobility

A Vision For ­Sustainable­ ­Transportation “We must begin to create something more efficient.”

Daniel Sperling is the found- ing director of the Institute of ­Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis.

120 Future Technologies Our Common Future electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and e- realize a new array of mobility options. A green future is a future without cars – bikes. Imagine being able to recharge these Computers that understand the human or at least without internal combus- with the neighborhood’s intelligent renew- brain, recognize individual and collective tion engines. Yet experts agree vehicle able-energy grid, which automatically behavior patterns, and enhance intelligence ownership in the future will rise. Daniel Sper- switches from recharging to feeding electric- will be part of this tool set. Real-time infor- ling, director of the Institute of Transporta- ity from the battery back to the system. Im- mation and global communications will tion Studies at the University of California, agine easy access to bus rapid transit (BRT) facilitate the transfer of ideas, enabling Davis, says innovative strategies are needed with your neighborhood electric car or a policymakers to replicate each others’ best to transform behavior, vehicles, and fuels. In smart jitney that picks you up within five practices without waiting. Intelligent tech- an OCF conference keynote, Sperling told minutes of your electronic call. A typical nology embedded in cars and other vehicles participants in the session on Postfossil traveler might use one form of transporta- will promote eco-driving, helping travelers Mobility it will take consumers, local govern- tion or mobility service one day and an- reduce their carbon footprints. ments and entrepreneurs working together other the next, depending on the nature of The new incentives will motivate so- to develop the needed transformations. the errand, time available, distance, weather cially rational behavior by giving tomorrow’s and traffic conditions, and personal consid- consumers much clearer signals about the erations. And imagine banking credits for impacts of their choices. Personal carbon Imagining a transportation world of all of the carbon you save to use later for a budgets will be set up for individuals and 2050 can give us an inkling of what is re- special travel vacation. families. Carbon accounts will be credited quired to dramatically reduce oil use and In this future world, electric-drive vehi- and debited based on travelers’ decisions. A greenhouse gas emissions. What might this cles have supplanted most of those old- portion of the balances that accrue from future look like? With sustainability as the fashioned gasoline cars with internal low-carbon lifestyles can be spent by indi- goal, it most certainly will not continue to combustion engines. These electric-drive viduals or sold to others. Taxes and fees will embrace the American car-centric model – vehicles are powered in near universal ownership of big, powerful, part by electricity gener- “Imagine garages that once gas-guzzling cars in mega-garages and sub- ated by power plants urban enclaves. We must begin to create with near-zero emis- housed gas-guzzling SUVs something more efficient, affordable, and sions, along with hydro- now sheltering zero-emission civilized. gen made from a mix of This future world would not depend on renewables and natural electric vehicles.” internal combustion engine cars and oil and gas. The remaining elec- would be populated by a wide range of mo- tric-drive vehicles are very efficient hybrids be indexed to carbon, so that those making bility services. In this world, suburbs have getting well over 100 mpg and powered by greener choices will pay less for goods and come to resemble villages or urban neigh- biofuels – not the old kind made from corn, services. Heavier polluters will help finance borhoods, with commercial and recreation- but from grasses, wood, algae, and various the low-carbon purchases of others by pay- al centers aesthetically integrated so that waste materials. Choices have expanded. ing a surcharge that goes to provide rebates residents can walk, bike, or take a neighbor- Convenience and sustainability have become for less-polluting cars and fuels. hood electric vehicle to jobs, schools, doc- primary considerations. Transportation Local officials and developers will follow tors, playing fields, and local merchants of with near-zero carbon emissions has re- consumers’ lead. As demand for low-carbon food, clothing, home wares, and entertain- placed the carbon-laden transportation products and lifestyles increases, sprawl will ment. For urban and suburban dwellers monoculture. cease and smarter development will ensue. alike, a powerful, pocket-sized computer Cities, businesses, and even developers will serves as an electronic travel agent arranging Essential Underpinnings also have carbon budgets to adhere to. The for mobility beyond the immediate neigh- For this future world to take root, an en- decisions will be theirs to make, but with borhood. The list of menu items includes tirely new set of incentives must be put in changes in tax laws and federal financing to car-sharing, ride-sharing, and jitney service, place. These incentives will motivate con- reward compact development, local govern- all of which can be lined up automatically sumers, governments, and business to re- ments will be motivated to reduce sprawl and instantaneously – thanks to advanced spond rationally to the carbon and energy and offer creative ways to reduce vehicle technology. constraints that increasingly bind us. travel. In the United States, decades of zon- Imagine garages that once housed gas- These incentives will work alongside an ing and permitting rules that had codified guzzling SUVs now sheltering zero-emission expanded set of technological gadgetry to sprawl into law will be reversed.

121 Cities and individuals will be motivated Needed Changes come mostly from waste materials – crop and empowered to find ways to reduce en- Three sets of changes are needed to realize residues, forestry wastes, and urban trash – ergy use and carbon emissions. Not only will this vision of the future: Vehicles must be- plus grasses and trees in areas where food they be rewarded with lower energy bills – come far more energy efficient, the carbon crops don’t grow well. The more important and in the case of cities, more funding for content of fuels must be greatly reduced, and fuels will be electricity and hydrogen, used low-carbon transportation (spent on a wide consumers and travelers must behave in a in battery, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell ve- selection of new mobility options) – but more eco-friendly manner. By mid-century, hicles. But the transition to these latter fuels they’ll also be able to sell their excess credits we envision a massive shift under way in all will require major transformations of the to other governments, businesses, or indi- three realms. Electric-drive vehicles will have very large companies that dominate the au- viduals. largely supplanted internal combustion en- tomotive and oil industries, and thus will As for state and national governments, gine vehicles, low-carbon fuels will have proceed slowly. not only will they alter transportation fund- nearly vanquished petroleum, and the trans- In this time frame, the two other big ing formulas to favor low-carbon mobility portation monoculture will be fragmenting, energy stories are unconventional oil and services and low-impact infrastructure, but even in car-centric America. coal. A big challenge of policy is to head off they’ll also alter the tax code and the vast The automotive transformation is al- oil companies’ embrace of oil sands, very array of rules and standards they administer ready beginning. Automakers are shifting heavy oil, and oil shale as conventional oil to reward energy efficiency and low-carbon toward electric-drive vehicles that use elec- supplies become less available. The other big investments and behavior. Mortgage deduc- tric motors for propulsion and to control challenge, the one that requires more nu- tions, sales taxes, and much more will be tied steering, braking, and acceleration. They are anced treatment, is coal. Because it’s so to environmental impact. Comprehensive moving from a mechanical engineering to abundant and so cheap to extract, coal will regulations will replace piecemeal policies an electrical engineering culture. The first be an important energy source for a long to guide the development of low-carbon generation of electric-drive vehicles, gaso- time. It will continue to be a principal source vehicles and fuels. These regulations will be line hybrids, are still fueled by petroleum, of electricity and will be a tempting source fuel and technology neutral, taking govern- with the fuel converted into electricity on- of future transportation fuels. Its CO2 emis- ments out of the business of picking winners board the vehicle. But several major auto- sions are so inordinately high, though, far makers are about to more than petroleum, that dramatic changes “New policies are needed that unveil battery electric are needed in how coal is processed and and plug-in hybrid ve- used. Coal conversion must become much spur energy companies to hicles that will operate more efficient and, most critically, the em- invest in low-carbon fuels and mostly or totally on bedded carbon must be prevented from electricity – motivated entering the atmosphere. For transportation necessary infrastructure.” in part by California’s fuels, that means converting the coal into zero-emission vehicle carbon-free fuels such as hydrogen and elec- and instead setting clear targets so that the program. And automakers continue to invest tricity, capturing CO2 emitted at the produc- most promising technologies will advance. in hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicles that tion facility, and then sequestering that CO2 Investments in clean tech R&D will could reach mass commercialization in the underground – with the understanding that ramp up to buoy companies in their com- next decade and beyond. There’s little un- “cleaner” coal is a half-century stopgap petition for global markets. Entrepreneurs certainty about this evolution toward effi- measure awaiting low-cost renewable hydro- will become even more engaged in the green cient, electric-drive vehicles – it’s more a gen and electricity. energy and vehicle race. Their efforts will be question of how fast it will occur. The third arena, eco-friendly travel be- rewarded by global communications that With transportation fuels, the path to havior, is the most problematic. Cars are halo them, new collaborations that inspire the future is less certain and probably slow- firmly entrenched in our culture and mod- them, and new markets for novel products er. While biofuels are already well established ern way of life. Reducing inefficient car- that enrich them. With higher oil prices and in two regions, America’s farm belt and Bra- dependent vehicle travel requires reforming vibrant carbon markets, paybacks will be zil, these biofuels of today are not likely to monopolistic transit agencies, anachronistic high on their low-carbon technology invest- play important future roles. In this vision, land use controls, distorted taxing policies, ments. In good times and bad, the most in- biomass will contribute a modest chunk of and the mindsets of millions of drivers novative entrepreneurs will advance a future transport fuels, some of it from Bra- who’ve been conditioned to reflexively get diverse portfolio of smart bets and pie-in- zil’s sugar cane but none from corn or oth- into the car every morning. It’s much more the-sky dreams. er food crops. Biofuels of the future will challenging than transforming a small

122 Future Technologies Our Common Future number of energy and car companies. But about the staggering challenge it faces and United States. The challenge is to capture even in California, the birthplace of car- the radical transformation it must under- more of the benefit of technology improve- centric living, the realization is starting to take. Achieving a 50 to 80 percent net reduc- ments to serve the public interest, even if settle in that mobility must be more sustain- tion in greenhouse gas emissions isn’t that means scaling back vehicle size, weight, something that businesses, consumers, and and especially power and performance. Siz- "Automakers can politicians can fully imagine. Life after cheap able fuel economy gains are possible through oil evokes images of crises to come. There’s incremental improvements to today’s tech- ultimately build no escaping that there will be winners and nology; even more gains are possible with efficient vehicles.” losers, but strong leadership and good pol- an accelerated transition to electric-drive icy can ease the transition. Because CO2 vehicles. able. Spurred by escalating gas prices and resides in the atmosphere for a hundred accelerating evidence of climate change, years and because investments in energy and Transforming Fuels consumers are already beginning to recog- infrastructure endure for decades, it’s im- Dramatic changes are needed in the energy nize that the transformation of the car- portant to get started immediately. sector. Given the flawed marketplace and centric monoculture is long overdue. To realize this future vision of a lower- absence of guiding policy, today’s oil indus- The really big changes in travel will come carbon, less oil-driven future, we need a try is maximizing private gains. But that slowly. By mid-century, it’s possible that the strategy for getting there – a pragmatic, behavior isn’t in the public interest. Oil mar- transportation monoculture will be action-oriented ap- ­fragmenting. A myriad of electronic, com- proach inspired by in- “The challenge is to capture munications, and mobility innovations – novation, fueled by including carsharing, dynamic ridesharing, entrepreneurialism, and more of the benefit of tech- smart paratransit, bus rapid transit, and sensitive to political and nology improvements to advanced telecommunications services, all economic realities. This coupled with small neighborhood cars, re- approach must be root- serve the public interest.” vitalized transit providers, enhanced pedes- ed in and responsive to the realities of today, kets are unresponsive to prices, largely ig- trian and bicycling facilities, and smarter but with an eye to the future. nore greenhouse gases, and invite land use – will enable a new transportation The recommendations that follow con- geopolitical conflict. Massive investments system that better serves the diverse needs stitute a strategy for achieving this vision of are being directed toward high-carbon un- of all people, including those less fortunate, the future. The recommendations are guid- conventional petroleum. the aging, and the disabled. This transport ed by two overarching principles. First, enact New policies are needed that spur en- system will be less expensive, more efficient, policies to align consumer and industry in- ergy companies to invest in low-carbon fu- and more sustainable than today’s. terests with the public good. And second, els and necessary infrastructure. Large oil This vision of the future might have develop and advance a broad portfolio of companies need to be encouraged to transi- seemed far-fetched even a few years ago, but efficient, low-carbon technologies to trans- tion into broader energy companies that are much has already changed. If we had to pick form transportation. less dependent on fossil energy. Many poli- one year when the world seemed to turn a ticians and companies across the United corner, when it began to be motivated to Transforming Vehicles States and other affluent nations are embrac- make large changes, it would be 2006. It will The most effective and least costly way to ing the need for a more coherent approach be a decade or more before history will be reduce transportation oil use and green- to energy. But, alas, the public debate is fo- able to confirm this observation. But it was house gas emissions is to improve the en- cusing on corn ethanol and policies un- in 2006 that the United States, the laggard ergy efficiency of vehicles. And yet, it’s likely to have much effect on transport fuels, among rich nations, finally accepted that surprising, even appalling, how little the including carbon taxes and cap-and-trade climate change is a threat to humanity. Oil United States and many other areas have programs. And where policies have been and car companies, politicians of all stripes, done. For twenty-five years, from the early adopted – the biofuels directive in Europe and voters finally accepted mounting scien- 1980s to 2008, the fuel economy of new cars and the renewable fuel standard in the Unit- tific evidence that climate change is real. Led and light trucks remained stagnant. Vehicle ed States – they’re deeply flawed. by California, the national debate shifted technology improved dramatically, but the from “if” to “what.” energy-efficiency improvements have been Consumer Behavior But realization and understanding are diverted to serving private desires for bigger Automakers can ultimately build efficient just a first step. The world is still in denial and more powerful cars – especially in the vehicles, and energy companies can supply

123 low-carbon fuels. But unless consumers are awakening giants to be part of the solution aren’t sufficient financial and natural re- willing to buy more-efficient vehicles that and not part of the problem. We can align sources, or climatic capacity, to follow the use low-carbon fuels and to reduce vehicle incentives to motivate consumers to act for patterns of the past. Consumers, govern- travel, there’s no hope of reducing oil use the greater public good. We can rewrite the ments, and companies all have essential roles and greenhouse gases. Thus, the focus here rules so local governments make decisions to play in making the needed changes. The is on consumer behavior, plus one other that further low-carbon transportation op- sooner we get on with addressing the issues, player, local governments, since they operate tions. And we can invite entrepreneurs to the better. And a durable framework is a bet- and manage – and indirectly influence – develop the needed transformations in ter approach than the haphazard and ad hoc much of the transportation system, particu- transportation. road we’ve been on. Adopting a strategic, larly transit services. They also regulate land Indeed, the first transformation, that of long-range view is the key. use, which has a large effect on vehicle usage. vehicles and fuels, is already under way, al- The road to surviving and thriving is Only with enhanced transport choices and beit tentatively. It will take many years for paved with low-carbon fuels and electric- smarter land use can individuals and cities this transformation to play out. It will un- drive vehicles, new mobility options, and reduce their carbon footprints. doubtedly happen in surprising ways, calling smarter governance. Enlightened consum- for open-ended policy approaches that don’t ers, innovative policymakers, and entrepre- Realizing the Vision pick winning technologies but instead es- neurial businesses worldwide can drive us As we head toward a future world of increas- tablish fair but tough, escalating goals. The to a sustainable future. ing vehicle ownership, innovative strategies second stage of the transportation revolu- are needed to transform behavior, vehicles, tion, a complete rethinking of how we move This is a condensed version of a speech and fuels. We can look to innovative policy- about, will evolve more slowly. Both trans- given at the session on Mobility. making in California for new ideas on how formations will require incentives, man- More can be found at www.ourcommon to proceed. We can learn from innovative dates, research, and demonstrations. future.de/sperling cities in Europe, such as Freiburg, Paris, Change will happen. It must happen. London, and Stockholm. We can invoke The days of conventional cars dominating novel ways to stimulate China and other personal mobility are numbered. There

124 Future Technologies Our Common Future Smart Production Management Greening the Global Supply Chain “Executives face ... pressure to look at David Simchi-Levi is a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and author, most sustainability.” recently, of Operations Rules: Delivering Value through Flexible Operations.

On top of that, in the last few years there means that companies start moving ship- Whether stretched around the world has been a significant increase in labor costs ments from rail to the trucking industry. or around the block, supply chains are in developing countries. To illustrate this, As a result, transportation costs in general tremendously sensitive to movements in the just look at China and Mexico. In the last go up. costs of labor and fuel. Using real-world five years, labor costs in China increased by In addition, we have seen a significant examples, MIT professor David Simchi-Levi an average of 20 percent each year. In Mex- increase in the level of risk assumed by many explains how supply chains can be levered ico they’ve gone up by an average of five companies. The reason for that, surpris- by savvy policymakers to make manufactur- percent. In the United States, the increase is ingly, is precisely successful implementation ing processes more environmentally friend- about three percent, year over year. Those of strategies like lean production, outsourc- ly – and, ultimately, make the world a numbers mean that if a company made ing and offshoring. What does lean mean? greener place. production-sourcing decisions five years Lean implies a low level of inventory. A low ago, they may need to revisit some or all of level of inventory suggests that if there is these decisions in light of changing costs. a disruption, the supply chain will not Global market and supply chain chal- Not only have we seen significant in- be able to meet demand. Similarly, outsourc- lenges are well-known. At the top of this list creases in labor costs in developing coun- ing and offshoring imply that the supply of challenges are rising and shifting cus- tries, but we have also seen significant chain is geographically more diverse – tomer expectations. On the one hand, increases in logistics costs. One reason is and as a result, open to all sorts of potential customer demand is difficult to predict. On energy prices; a second reason, at least in the problems. the other hand, there is a lot of pressure to United States, is limited rail capacity. That The level of volatility, especially in just increase service levels. increases rail transportation costs, but also the last two to three years, has increased

125 significantly. And when I talk about the of CO2 emissions than trucks. Ocean trans- Some retailers introduce environmental level of volatility, I don’t focus only on vola- portation is almost 50 times more efficient scorecards that they use to compare the per- tility in demand, I also focus on volatility in than air transportation in terms of its carbon formance of different suppliers. They already supply – in particular, the impact of com- footprint. So it’s not only about production. rate the performance of their suppliers based modity price volatility. It’s also about selecting the mode of trans- on quality, cost and service, and now they’re The oil price is an illustration of this. portation in your supply chain that will af- starting to look at the environmental score- Between January 2009 and November 2010, fect the level of emission associated with a card. oil prices almost doubled. In fact, this is true specific company. Other retailers require their suppliers to not only for oil prices, but for almost every add a label on the product providing infor- commodity that you can think of. Public Policy’s Power mation not only on where the product is Thus, companies face increases in labor The second driver that has got executives made, and what material goes into the prod- costs in developing countries, increases in focused on sustainability comes from public uct, but also what levels of carbon emission risks and volatility both on the demand side policy and regulations. The Kyoto Protocol it takes to produce and deliver the product and the supply side. And at the same time, has forced companies, especially in Europe, to the retail outlet. there is an increased pressure to focus on to look at the level of carbon associated with sustainability. So it’s interesting to under- the production and delivery of products. In Finding the Right Metric stand where this pressure is coming from the United States, there has been a lot of Introducing the environmental scorecard and how it affects supply chain strategies, discussion, but no significant change in suggests a question: What is the right metric manufacturing strategies, and logistic and policy. Still, many executives are concerned to use? Some companies are focused on car- distribution strategies. that this is soon coming. bon footprint. That’s a direct way to measure Even without regulations in the United the impact on the environment. Others are Supply Chain Efficiency States, executives face a lot of pressure to focusing on what is called “dead-end dis- The first driver is supply chain efficiency. look at sustainability as an important area. tance.” This is the nonproductive movement When you talk to executives who are think- This pressure comes from three different of trucks, or movements where the truck is ing deeply about their logistics, you realize directions. Some – not a lot – comes from empty. And we’ve seen some who use prod- that many of them correlate supply chain consumers. There’s pressure from supply uct-miles, the total distance the products efficiency with sustainability. What they chain partners. And probably the most travel to the retail location, especially in the think about is that when the carbon foot- important source of pressure is from insur- media, as criteria. print is high, when carbon emissions are ance companies, which associate risk with But this can be a very misleading indica- high, that is an indication that the transpor- sustainability. tor. The impact on the environment has tation system is not efficient. Inefficiency Some executives are looking at this as a nothing to do with distance. Take a simple motivates them to try to improve supply competitive opportunity. What they are example: You’re in a nice restaurant in New chain efficiency, and this also leads to a re- worried about is that their competitor will York City and you’re about to order a red introduce a green- wine. You’re trying to choose between two “Insurance companies ... associ- er product and different types: One from the Napa Valley, ate risk with sustainability. this will shift mar- and one from the Loire Valley. Surprisingly, ket demand. In from the carbon footprint point of view, the Some executives are looking at fact, a number of one from Napa Valley generates more car- this as an opportunity.” surveys indicate bon, because it is trucked to the East Coast, that consumers in whereas the French wine is shipped over the duction in the overall carbon footprint. general prefer greener products to other ocean – a more efficient means of long- In fact, they are right that the logistics products. That’s not surprising. The prob- distance transport. This suggests that the sector is a large and growing emitter of car- lem is that none of these surveys show at supply chain network has a huge impact on bon dioxide, and the data suggests that lo- what price point consumers prefer to switch carbon footprint and therefore on the envi- gistics contribute about six percent of total to greener products. The second thing sur- ronment. emissions. Out of this, almost 90 percent is veys suggest is that people in developing Some companies are focused on finding associated with transportation-related ac- countries are the most concerned and ready the right trade-off. An example of a com- tivities. to act. pany that made a big difference is Walmart. Different modes of transportation have In response to all this, retailers are At the end of 2005, they announced a plan different emission efficiencies. Rail, for ex- putting pressure on their suppliers. And to reduce energy use, cut waste and cut ample, is six times more efficient in terms these come in general in two different ways. greenhouse gas emissions. Their objective

126 Future Technologies Our Common Future was a 20 percent cut by 2012, not only on on reducing costs and improving customer goes up, and so transportation becomes emissions associated with their supply chain service. And the other one was focused on more expensive relative to inventory and but also the emissions associated with their reducing carbon footprint. relative to warehousing cost. Similarly, as the suppliers’ supply chain. To do that, Walmart Though their plants were in Iowa and oil price increases transportation cost be- started rating their suppliers based on an Delaware, their customers are all over the comes more expensive relative to manufac- environmental scorecard that has eight di- country. What should this company do to turing cost. If transportation becomes more mensions, including greenhouse gas emis- reduce costs and improve service? You can expensive relative to inventory and ware- sion levels, recycled content and renewable see that we started with two distribution house costs, that suggests you need more energy. centers, but if you want to improve costs and warehouses. And because transportation service, the best strategy is to add two ad- costs become more expensive than manu- “If oil prices ditional warehouses, one on the West Coast facturing cost, you need to move manufac- and one in the South. This will reduce sup- turing closer to market demand. increase, you will ply chain costs and improve customer ser- This tells you something about the dis- see a move from vice by reducing average time to market by cussion around public policy. Many people almost 50 percent. talk about taxation and the impact of policy global manu- The question is: What is the impact of on manufacturing and supply chain strate- facturing.” additional distribution centers on the car- gies. That suggests that if there is an addi- bon footprint associated with this company? tional tax on fuel in the United States, you This made a big impact. Their largest As you add distribution centers, you start to will see a change in manufacturing and sup- third-party logistics company in Canada reduce average distance to the market. Re- ply chain strategies. changed the way they distribute products to ducing average distance to the market im- It also suggests that if oil prices increase Walmart stores, switching from road to rail plies that you reduce transportation costs because of limited resources, you will see a and changing some of their trucks to electric from the warehouses to the customers – but power, both of which significantly reduced at the same time you increase transportation “Companies are the carbon footprint and reduced the costs from the plants to the warehouses. amount of fuel used by the trucks. Surpris- In this supply chain, transportation focused on finding ingly, the two measures not only reduced the from the warehouses to the customers is the right trade-off.” impact on the environment but also reduced done by trucks, whereas transportation from costs for the third-party logistics companies the plant to the warehouses is done by rail, move from global manufacturing – where and as a result for Walmart customers. yielding a reduction in the carbon footprint. manufacturing is done in low-cost countries When companies start to look at carbon The problem is that you now have more fa- – all the way to local manufacturing, where footprint in their supply chain they need a cilities. More facilities consume more energy. manufacturing is closer to market demand. lot of data. They need data on the carbon It turns out that the right balance be- This is a completely different way of footprint associated with different transpor- tween, cost, carbon footprint, and response thinking about manufacturing and supply tation activities and information about the time was achieved by adding four distribu- chain strategy. Whether green policies are carbon footprint associated with ware­ tion centers. This allowed the firm to reduce implemented because of government regu- houses, plant and production activities. costs by two percent, cut average distance to lations, pressure from supply chain partners Carbon emissions by fuel type, average fuel the customers by almost 60 percent and cut or consumers, or changes in oil price, such efficiency, electricity consumption by build- carbon footprint by about one-third. policies are making or will make a huge im- ing characteristics because building size, pact on how companies design and manage geographical region, the number of workers, Sustainable Thinking their supply chain. the age of the facility – all these inputs have Now when you talk to executives about car- an impact on carbon footprint. bon footprint and sustainability you realize This is a condensed version of a speech In my research and consulting projects, very quickly that the higher the oil price, the given at the OCF conference’s session on I have tried to identify the right way to bal- more interest they have in focusing on sus- The Factory of the Future. More can be ance cost, service, and carbon footprint. One tainability. When the oil price is low, on the found at www.ourcommonfuture.de/­ example is a US manufacturer of office fur- other hand, there is very little interest. simchi-levi niture with two plants, one in Iowa and one Therefore, it’s important to understand what in Delaware. They have two distribution the impact of oil prices are on manufactur- center warehouses at the same locations. ing, on logistics and supply chains. As the There were two objectives: One was focusing oil price increases, the transportation cost

127 Global Young Faculty Project “Being 3.0"

Taking Technology Use to the Next Level: Being 3.0

Concerned about the disparity between Talking to friends, co-workers and fam- of their lives – were the least careful with technology and its responsible use, ily, Avanzi and his colleagues noticed that their personal data online. The group’s sur- researchers from the Global Young Fac- the power of technology often outstripped vey showed that young people are willing to ulty came together to find out just how people’s preparedness for the results. One post personal information on sites like Twit- Germans were using the Internet – and particularly worrying example is data pro- ter and Facebook, or on publicly accessible what lessons could be learned for the tection. Says Avanzi: “There are lots of peo- blogs, that they might later regret. “The in- future. Their results, in the form of a ple who use the Internet but are not teresting thing is why people do this,” survey of over 1,000 Germans, were concerned about the consequences of their Sülzenbrueck says. “Maybe it’s like being surprising. Awareness of the dangers data.” your own pop star – everyone wants to be lurking on the Internet was high, even if The group coined the term “Being 3.0” meaningful and relevant.” people didn’t always act in their own best for people who were both adept at using tech- Discussions with other group members interests online. nology and conscious of the risks involved. raised topics for future research. The grad- “Being 3.0 is what we want to achieve – ual creep of technology into every corner of In the beginning, there was man: Naked people who are aware of the risks, but also our lives is eroding skills previous genera- and alone, with no idea how the environ- responsible for their actions,” Avanzi says. tions once took for granted, for example. ment could be harnessed (with the help of To see where on this imagined continu- Take what Avanzi calls “digital dementia.” some sharp rocks and a few sticks) to make um the average German stood, the group “There are plenty of people who rely too life easier. put together a survey of 1,004 Germans. To much on machines and do not remember Then came Being 1.0, and with him the their surprise, the survey indicated that most data” like telephone numbers, appointments first hints of modern humanity: Man, the Germans were remarkably astute and aware and addresses, “just how to search for it.” toolmaker, shaping his surroundings. That Internet users. A whopping 80 percent of The group’s members shared little except wasn’t the end of man’s development, the people they surveyed were aware of the a common interest in the future of technol- though. “Being 1.0 is the simple toolmaker, risks to personal data posed by the Internet. ogy. When it came to deciding on a project not aware he is influencing his environment. “Quite a lot of them are already there, to pursue, that diversity was an obstacle that Being 2.0 is a different level, in which a per- so to speak,” says Sandra Sülzenbrueck, a the group transformed into an asset. “I son realizes he is part of his environment GYF member and researcher at the Leibniz never, ever would have expected to work and a larger group,” says Roberto Avanzi, a Research Centre for Working Environment with an art philosopher, a production de- professor of mathematics at the Ruhr Uni- and Human Factors in Dortmund. “They signer or a bionics researcher,” Avanzi says. versity-Bochum. seem to be behaving, and seem to know “Yet we were able to do something, and Together with other like-minded mem- about the risks. Most people, it turns out, do something surprising. That’s the most bers of the OCF conference’s Global Young are more active than passive.” rewarding for me personally.” Faculty, Avanzi wondered if the flood of dig- The telephone survey suggested that the ital technology that has pervaded every aspect users of the future – “digital natives,” or of life over the last few decades promised yet young people who have grown up with in- another phase to humanity’s development. formation technology permeating every part

135 Transportation Missing Caught between a lack of transportation nificantly lower life expectancies – eight and sprawling cities, many people living in years lower than the national average. Chil- Europe’s impoverished inner cities can’t the Bus dren of those from the lowest social class are change their situations because they can’t more than five times more likely to be killed get to jobs, supermarkets or universities. on the roads than those from the highest The solution lies not in more cars, but in social class. This is not limited to the UK, in sound investment in buses and other forms Germany children from lower social classes of accessible, affordable public transport, (and especially Turkish children) are also said OCF Fellow Bob Jeffery at the OCF more likely to be victims of road traffic ac- conference’s workshop on Postfossil Mo- cidents. bility. That’s only one reason why Jeffery sup- ports the Campaign for Free Public Trans- Mobility defines our lives in myriad port in the UK. He describes it as “an ways. Access to safe and affordable transpor- embryonic activist group which is cam- tation can connect us to higher-paying jobs, paigning for a radical solution to the UK’s cheaper food and better education. But transport problems.” Jeffery concedes this many cities struggle to bring that freedom movement is marginal, but he thinks social of movement to their citizens. science should place priority on addressing Bob Jeffery, a PhD candidate in sociol- people’s needs, not moving in lockstep with ogy at the University of Salford in Greater policymakers’ agendas. Manchester, UK, was invited to the confer- Jeffery’s interest in the subject is more ence to contribute to the session on Mobil- than academic. For him, there’s a personal ity. Among other things, he researches the element as well. He says early experiences impact of transportation on quality of life with the impact of poverty, drugs, and crime and the way attitudes towards mobility are motivated him to study social science. That’s perpetuated from generation to generation. also why he wants to stay involved with com- “An important part of this discussion is munity groups and local politics. Born in 1983, Bob Jeffery is a sociologist suburbanization – which in the UK is a more “I actually live in the deprived commu- ­focusing on transportation and social jus- extreme phenomenon than in the rest of tice at the University of Salford in Greater nity which has been the focus of my re- Europe,” says Jeffery. Manchester, UK. search,” says Jeffery. “I think one of the Suburbanization is the growth of com- problems with the social science that studies merce and development on the outskirts of deprivation is that people are very much cities – sprawl, in other words. Jeffery says kind of coming in from the outside trying that as services move to cities’ edges, those to tell these communities what their prob- citizens who rely primarily on public trans- accessing college, and 1.4 million people per lems are. I don’t think there is enough listen- portation like ethnic minorities, the elderly, year miss, turn down or choose not to access ing going on.” and the impoverished are affected the most. medical help because of transport problems. Jeffery plans to edit a book in 2011 on “The UK has a fully deregulated, fully A sad irony is that while many inner cit- debates around free public transport, privatized transport system which encour- ies lack adequate public transportation op- spreading the word about cities where low ages car growth for those who can afford it, tions, they also have the highest density of or no-cost mobility solutions have been im- but leads to the continuing exclusion of roads. So while people have difficulty moving plemented to positive effect. those who cannot,” says Jeffery. from one community to another using pub- Examples of this from the UK govern- lic transport, they still have to deal with traf- More can be found at: ment’s own research include the fact that fic noise and pollution in their neighborhoods. http://www.freepublictransport.org.uk every two out of five job seekers report that This can cause serious public health http://salford.academia.edu/BobJeffery transport is a barrier to getting a job. Half of concerns. Jeffery says the neighborhood he’s all 16 to 18-year-olds experience difficulties researching in Greater Manchester has sig-

136 Future Technologies Our Common Future Industrial Design Products Too often, companies respond to the mar- work, and today is a passionate advocate ket’s demands by churning out simple of what she calls “system innovation”: De­ products that yield immediate profits. But for a Better signers must acknowledge that the world is that kind of thinking overlooks the poten- interconnected and complex, and products tial gains of taking a longer view. Instead, should support a sustainable society. companies should innovate for future Future To illustrate her point, Gaziulusoy recalls needs. Auckland University of Technology a speech she heard in 2005, at the Sustain- lecturer Ayse Idil Gaziulusoy argues profits able Business Network Conference in Auck- can be sustainable if companies take a land. The New Zealand executive of Toyota broader view, and look more creatively at talked about the company’s hybrid Prius car. what part their business – and their inno- After the executive’s speech, someone from vations – will play in a complex world. the audience asked what the company could do to increase the sustainability of transport. Industry often takes a short-term ap- “He said we have to build more roads to proach when it comes to sustainability is- increase diffusion of hybrid cars,” Gaziulu- sues, settling for small tweaks rather than soy recalls. sweeping reinventions. Take the common That was the wrong answer. “Toyota had washing machine: Product developers work great foresight in anticipating that reducing to make it better each year, introducing fea- carbon emissions and enhancing fuel effi- tures that lower the unit cost, use less en- ciency would become major selling points ergy or save water. Such steps are progress, and developed the Prius. But arguing that to be sure – but not much. hybrid cars are the ultimate in sustainable Instead, product developers should mobility was caused by a lack of systemic come up with new ways to wash. What about understanding,” Gaziulusoy says. More cars a public laundry where neighbors can meet on roads means increased traffic, stress lev- and pool resources, or a fabric that repels els and a loss of biodiversity. “The company dirt, or a wardrobe that cleans clothes auto- wasn’t thinking about meeting a societal A. Idil Gaziulusoy is a ­lecturer at the matically? We don’t need incremental im- need, it was thinking about a specific prod- Auckland University of ­Technology in provements, we need sweeping change that New Zealand. She was born in 1978. uct, the Prius. We have to get beyond think- leads to less wasteful living, says Ayse Idil ing about specific products.” Gaziulusoy. She joined the conference as Gaziulusoy knows that only a few people an Our Common Future Fellow contri­ in the world are trying to link product de- buting to the session on the Factory of the velopment to the broader-scale transforma- Future. tion that needs to take place. But she has a This approach doesn’t always come few suggestions on how to get there. Com- naturally to companies focused on making panies can collaborate with each other and the biggest profits for the smallest invest- establish partnerships with NGOs and gov- ment. Corporate short-term thinking leads ernments. to long-term problems, from the well- says. “We must ask ourselves how product Companies like Toyota shouldn’t just known example of climate change resulting development can be aligned with the long- focus on developing their next car, but also from human-induced carbon-dioxide emis- term transformation that needs to take place consider larger questions involved in societal sions to depleted fisheries, clear-cut forests, in society.” mobility. What would a world without cars and the deluge of electronic waste shipped Gaziulusoy was born in Turkey. She says look like – and how could Toyota play a role to developing countries. the enormous disparity she observed there in such a world? “Think conceptually. Then, “In order to achieve a sustainable society, between rich and poor made her want to be you might start thinking about greater so- we have to change everything in society – and an agent of change. She’s trying to change cietal innovations and systemic shifts might industry has a key role to play,” Gaziliusoy the world through changing how businesses become possible,” Gaziulusoy says.

137 The Brazilian Model

Luc de Ferran is an industrial consultant and former vice president of Ford Latin America Group.

“It was a unique opportunity to do everything differently.”

138 Future Technologies Our Common Future The auto industry is in constant flux. small cars. Why? Because we couldn’t afford 13,500 people out of poverty and gave them Companies come and go. Production bigger ones. So we started the other way 900 hours of training each. moves to meet demand. Models morph around. The public income ten years ago How did this kind of approach affect the into ever more futuristic designs. Even the was probably less than a thousand dollars bottom line? epicenters shift: Latin America, Brazil in per head per year, something particular, is an emerging leader. That’s like that. Now it’s ten times “In Brazil, we've mostly made why many in the auto world are keeping a higher. But the Brazilian close eye on the Brazilian model of growth auto industry actually was small cars. Why? Because we and innovation. Former Ford executive Luc born ten years ago. Before couldn't afford bigger ones.” de Ferran, who helped lead the automotive that, the industry was flat at giant’s efforts in Latin America, was in- around one million cars sold a year. Now we de Ferran: The quality improved when the vited to talk about his experiences at the are reaching four million and growing very workers understood that what they do con- session on Future Technologies. He says quickly. In another five years, Brazil will be tributes to the satisfaction of what their successful automotive companies in the the fourth largest car market in the world customers will buy. In the end, this is paying future will have to change the way they behind China, the United States, and Japan. their salaries. Also, the level of education approach staffing in developing countries. How did Brazil become a major player in inside the plant was much higher. It helped auto manufacturing? tremendously. You get more dynamic ideas Why has Brazil experienced such de Ferran: The Brazilian industry is not from the staff. ­dynamic growth in the auto sector? fresh. It started in the 1900s. We shipped What has the impact been on the local de Ferran: First, our country is going Ford Model T’s from Dearborn, Michigan ­population? through violent growth. Even in 2009, when to São Paulo back in the first decades of the de Ferran: There is better healthcare, dental the economy was very bad everywhere, Bra- 1900s, but the real industry started produc- care and education. I am advocating that zil broke even. And in 2010 our gross na- tion in Brazil in 1957. Most recently, we built you cannot isolate the guy from his job or tional product grew 7.4 percent. That’s the revolutionary new plants. Totally new pro- from his participation in society – you just projection. Brazil’s per capita income takes cesses – fully integrated with logistics pro- cannot. One way or another, one ends up us out of the poverty range. We are at about cesses that are benchmarks. Everything we affecting the other. So you had better recog- $10,000 per person now. Second, the mix of do to build these vehicles is very productive. nize that and make it work. You played a major role in that reestablish- So you aim to build not just a factory, but “In another five years, ment of Ford in South America – specifi- a community? Brazil will be the cally in the way factories are managed. de Ferran: In reality that’s what it is. Now What changes did you make at the Ford sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn’t. fourth largest car mar- plant in Bahia, Brazil for example? But what you have to have in mind is “I’m ket in the world.” de Ferran: It was a unique opportunity to not hiring a worker, I’m hiring a person.” do everything differently. I had all kinds of That’s a big difference, isn’t it? And there is cars is completely different. I think what models I had studied. With all those models, a relationship that needs to be well-done and damaged the auto industry in the United I said I will do something which is unbeat- long-term. That’s the difference. That’s States was the size of the cars. You need to able from quality, production and profitabil- ­human. You can do that any place in the think about how much the vehicle will waste ity viewpoints. And we worked on it. One world. in comparison to how much the vehicle will of the things I found is that the involvement carry. If you look at the Brazilian market, of human resources was incredibly impor- 75 percent is small cars. tant. We made it so workers were no longer Why are more fuel-efficient cars so popular workers, and bosses were no longer bosses. in Brazil, while other countries like the Workers need help, they get together and United States still loves its gas guzzlers? ask each other. They are all well trained to de Ferran: In Brazil, we’ve mostly made handle this responsibility. In Bahia, I took

139 Impressions from the conference.

140 Future Technologies Our Common Future 4 Questions, 8 Answers

“What fact makes you the most optimistic about our common future?" Klocke: People are aware of the big challenges we face. This makes me optimistic that science and industry will find adequate solutions.

Wahlster: Our presentations showed that most of the urgent problems of humankind can be solved with the help of IT innovations, and this makes me optimistic.

“What is the greatest challenge facing us in the next 25 years?" Klocke: The move towards more effective use of renewable energy sources, along with the development and introduction of new concepts for more resource-efficient production processes and products.

Wahlster: The biggest challenge for society is finding the right balance between open Internet communication and privacy. Technology can give us a better life, but it can also create new problems if we are not careful.

“What piece of advice would you give young researchers in your field today?" Klocke: Go for interdisciplinary research approaches. Look beyond the borders of your discipline and join multidisciplinary research teams.

Wahlster: Try to solve not only academic toy problems but those problems that have some impact on our daily life. And focus on those topics that have a societal and an economical impact in researchers’ respective countries.

“What was the most surprising insight you had at this conference?" Klocke: I was surprised at how well the conference was attended. Wahlster: I was really amazed by a young researcher who showed that elderly people can trace a line on paper faster and more accurately than young people. It turns out elderly people are used to handwriting letters, whereas young people use email keyboards and touch screens more often. If young people don’t develop the dexterity of their hands, it could be a problem in the future – especially in fields like surgery and dentistry that require refined motor skills.

Wolfgang Wahlster and Fritz Klocke served as scientific advisors for the OCF sessions on Communication and The Factory of the Future under the frame topic Future Technologies. Wahlster is professor of computer science at Saarland University (Saarbrücken, Germany) and director and CEO of the German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI). Klocke is head of the Fraunhofer Institute for Production Technology (IPT) in Aachen as well as professor of manufacturing technology and co-director of the WZL Laboratory for Machine Tools and Production Engineering at RWTH Aachen.

141 Human Rights and Global Values Introduction

The boundaries separating people and in China, for example, will define this cen- developed countries, we will not understand places are rapidly eroding. Yet dramatic dif- tury in pivotal ways. A migration expert the dynamics of their social change in the ferences remain: Between rich and poor predicts that China’s creative approach to future,” says Ludger Pries, a sociologist at economies, between authoritarian and dem- bringing emigrants home will allow the Ruhr Universität Bochum and, like Limbach, ocratic states, between secular and religious country to keep its most talented creative one of the scientific advisors. societies. In a world that remains divided, workers and move the country from a cheap Underpinning all of the discussions dur- exploring what constitutes global human production center to a more knowledge- ing the OCF conference was the question of rights and values has never been more im- based economy, for example. At the same how policy shapes what rights are granted portant. At the OCF conference, an inter- time, scholars debated whether the same ap- and what values are protected. As boundaries generational dialogue between young proaches states use to integrate migrants shift, more international organizations, from activists and scholars and an older, more from other countries might apply to the oft- the UN and World Trade Organization to the experienced generation touched on topics overlooked phenomenon of internal migra- European Union, are stepping into a regula- like international justice and the rule of law, tion from the countryside to urban areas. tory role. Yet often this power exists without religion and values, as well as migration. Just as migration transcends national the constitutional checks and balances that “People who come from countries with boundaries, the international reach of reli- most nations rely on. great economic or constitutional problems gion makes it one of the most divisive and “The question arises as to how this de- are often much more informed about op- potentially benign forces in human society. cision-making power can be democratically portunities for change,” says Jutta Limbach, Though the headlines may be about the legitimized and submitted to certain funda- the former president of the Federal Consti- clash between Islam and Christianity, some mental rule-of-law principles,” says Dieter tutional Court of Germany. With experience political scientists and historians at the OCF Grimm, professor emeritus of public law at on the ground that goes beyond the theo- conference argued that an equally significant the Humboldt University of Berlin. “There retical, local activists “provide concrete rec- shift may be going on within Christianity, is no equivalent to a constitution on the ommendations on how state organs and as evangelical strains of the faith sweep international level, or only a very thin one nongovernmental organizations can help across Africa and South America and replace at best.” promote democracy in areas where dictator- traditional denominations. There is no one answer to the question ships still flourish.” Societies across the world will be im- of how to provide human rights on a global The conference’s geographic diversity pacted by movements like these regardless of scale. But meetings like the OCF can provide highlighted issues beyond Europe’s borders – geographic location. “Without understanding a forum for identifying problems and gen- especially in some of the world’s emerging the very different historical developments, erating concrete ideas for a more just com- economies. Deep social changes occurring realities and challenges in developing and mon future.

144 Human Rights and Global Values Our Common Future 849 out of 7,112 petitioners were granted amnesty by South Africa’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission.

81people per toilet seat in Mumbai, India. 144,000 Chinese students studied abroad in more than 100 countries in 2007.

90%of people without basic necessities say religion is an important part of their lives. 60% of people with their basic necessities met say ­religion is an important part of their lives.

33% of U.S. citizens will be of Latino descent by 2050.

145 Reconciliation

Culture, Community and Human Rights: South Africa's Lessons “‘If truth has replaced justice ... has reconciliation turned into an embrace of evil?’”

Antjie Krog is a South African poet, writer and professor at the ­University of the Western Cape.

146 Human Rights and Global Values Our Common Future result would have been to explain apartheid guage of amnesty, political context and for- Addressing the Human Rights session as an evil system, not just to reduce it to evil giveness, South Africans are being asked to of the OCF conference, South African operatives.” let off the hook the president (accused of poet and journalist Antjie Krog drew on Mamdani was particularly vocal about raping a young woman), his financial advis- African philosophy to explore how a world the forced removals of three and a half mil- or (accused of corrupt dealings in the arms view that might seem alien to Europeans lion people to create racially segregated deal), and the xenophobic attackers (accused made the pioneering Truth and Reconcilia- residential areas as “South Africa’s gulag.” of attacking and looting the businesses and tion Commission project the right solution While some 25,000 people died between houses of people from other African coun- for South Africa. 1960 and 1994 in political violence, millions tries). more were condemned to anguished lives of Mamdani and Braude are saying that racially defined poverty. With the narrow those who benefited from a crime against Is a common understanding of human focus of the TRC their dignity could never humanity have walked off scot-free. Those rights possible? Is a shared doctrine of hu- be restored while thousands of apartheid who have killed, maimed, and tortured got man rights possible and desirable? Are all functionaries and millions of white benefi- amnesty. Because the structural injustice human rights universal? ciaries were left unscathed, off the hook, and black people suffered has not been rectified, I will first discuss two examples of strong with all their loot intact. Instead of placing the rights and freedoms in the constitution and devastating criticism against the basic the complicity and culpability of beneficia- remain a chimera. We are therefore NOT principles of the South African Truth and ries center stage, white South Africans by equal before the law and will never enjoy Reconciliation Commission (TRC). Both and large were able to claim a false inno- equal benefit or protection. The TRC single- these criticisms suggest that some fatal flaws cence. handedly destroyed the possibility of restor- within the process itself hampered and are In an interview with me, Mamdani ing human dignity which forms the still hampering South Africans in cultivating sharply criticized the way in which the com- foundation of freedom, justice, and peace a culture of human rights and building a fair mission was settling for truth instead of try- in the world. Therefore, the commission’s and just society. Then I want to explore an- ing to exact justice for the impoverished. “If critics say, all South Africans have in a way other way of interpreting these “fatal flaws” truth has replaced justice in South Africa – been licensed to be as corrupt and criminal in order to show that a different kind of has reconciliation then turned into an em- as they want, to make up for what they have reading is possible which not only broadens brace of evil?” he asked. been denied, or in protecting that which the concept of human rights but also makes South African scholar Claudia Braude ­others want to take from them. the building of a just society more probable. is also critical of the commission’s approach. You will agree: This is devastating. The TRC was only a few months into its Having avoided a Nuremberg route in deal- But allow me to look at the same issues two-year workload when one of the stron- ing with the crimes of the past, she says, framed by a different philosophy or world- gest, most enduring and often quoted criti- South Africa has entrenched a pervasive view, namely that of being part of an inter- cisms was leveled at the Commission. culture of impunity. Using the “template of connected community. Prominent scholar Mahmood Mamdani, forgiveness,” many South African criminals based at University of Cape Town when the were claiming the right to be forgiven. “Since Is Autonomy European? TRC was active between 1996 and 1998, amnesty cannot be granted for crimes First things first. Is the concept of an “au- criticized the fact that the TRC decided to against humanity, descriptions of apartheid tonomous person” a European invention? It confine its gaze to the physical and repressive mutated from being an internationally rec- is important to realize that over the years, dimensions of apartheid rule such as severe ognized crime against humanity into a gross African philosophers have defined person- ill-treatment, abduction, torture, and killing human rights violation,” Braude writes. hood in a specifically interconnected way. instead of addressing the structural violence She agrees with several scholars accusing The self is not something private, hidden of apartheid. Archbishop Desmond Tutu of cloaking the within our bodies, modern African theolo- This, Mamdani suggested, obscured the commission in a language of forgiveness gians Gabriel Setiloane and Augustine co-dependency of racialized power and ra- which allows a political compromise, also Shutte maintain. The self is outside the body, cialized privilege. Instead of regarding vic- called a pact between elites, to suddenly ac- present and open to all. It is not a thing, but tims as “political activists” and perpetrators quire a moral overlay. No wonder, the article the sum total of all interacting forces. The as “state agents”, the TRC should have gone continues, that the democratically chosen human self is therefore not something that “beyond notions of individual harm and leaders of the new South Africa, who in re- first exists on its own and then enters into individual responsibility, and located agen- cent years participated in a corrupt arms relationship with its surroundings. It exists cy within the workings of a system. The deal, now demand amnesty. Using the lan- ONLY in relationship to its surroundings.

147 This kind of interconnectedness is not the Batswana, the moment that a person was impressively formulated by a mother an isolated exceptional phenomenon, but starts living in disregard of the community, whose son was killed by an apartheid hit part of a much broader, more general con- according to the each-man-for-himself prin- squad. Asked what she thought about rec- text found in a variety of forms, under a ciple, then “the light of the mind is darkened onciliation she answered as follows: variety of names, manifesting in a variety of and [his] character deteriorates, so that it This thing called reconciliation [...] if I cultures across the African continent. In his may be said that the real manhood is dead, am understanding it correctly [...] if it means famous 1995 essay on African philosophical though the body still lives; when they realize this perpetrator, this man who has killed thought, Ghanaian philosopher Kwame that to all intents and purposes the human Christopher Piet, if it means he becomes Gyekye says that communitarism is held by being is alienated from fellowship with his human again, this man, so that I, so that all most of the scholarship involving cultures kith and kin.” of us, get our humanity back [...] then I of Africa, as the most outstanding trademark How does this view interact with the no- agree, then I support it all. as well as the most defining characteristic. tion of human dignity? Here for you, in In simple terms she spelt out the full Poet and Wellesley College philosophy Germany, human dignity is inviolable and complex implications of being interconnect- professor Ifeanyi Menkiti also maintains that innate. It forms the foundation and basis ed-towards-wholeness and the role of rec- “as far as Africans are concerned, the reality from which people can access the protection onciliation in it. of the communal world Her words, firstly, mean that she under- takes precedence over the “In Germany, human dignity stood that the killer of her child could, and reality of the individual is inviolable and innate.” did, kill because he had lost his humanity; life histories” and there- he was no longer human. Secondly, she un- fore comes to three conclusions: The com- of their human rights. Gyekye says that the derstood that to forgive him would open up munity defines the individual; personhood basis of a caring society could be ‘caring or the possibility for him to regain his human- is not bestowed on somebody simply compassion or generosity’ rather than jus- ity; to change profoundly. Thirdly, she un- through birth, but is something to be ac- tice. derstood also that the loss of her son quired; personhood is something at which affected her own humanity; she herself had an individual could fail. The Essence of the TRC now an affected humanity. Fourthly and In other words: A person is fully depen- Thousands and thousands of revenge kill- most importantly, she understood that if dent on others. In African philosophy this ings were executed in Europe after the Sec- indeed the perpetrator felt himself driven is at times described as interconnectedness ond World War. Not a single direct revenge by her forgiveness to regain his humanity, towards fullness. Former Senegalese poet killing of victims took place during the TRC then it would open up for her the possibil- and President Leopold Senghor underlined period – many murders of course, but they ity to become fully human again. the Latin meaning of “conspiring” – breath- were generally linked to criminal activities. This remarkable formulation affirms ing together. Our deepest moral obligation Why this absence of vengeance? Why did how somebody, who would be regarded by is to become fully human and that we can victims and perpetrators sit together in the many as not effectively literate, let alone only do through entering more and more same room talking about their experiences? schooled in African philosophy, intimately deeply into community with others. The I want to suggest that it was due to this sense understood her interconnectedness and goal of morality is the fullness of humanity. of being part of and dependent on one an- could formulate it succinctly. But this view Being interconnected makes it possible other in order to build a personhood with- had profound implications for the workings to acquire personhood. Personhood is not in a new democracy. of the TRC. bestowed on someone simply through birth. But we are a country split down the mid- After 18 Truth Commissions around the You have to “build” yourself into a person. dle: White perpetrators use the brand-new world, from Chile and El Salvador to Can- bill of human ada, the South African one has been hailed “Personhood refers not to a state rights to protect and credited for being the first to hold victim those very rights hearings in public, individualize amnesty of being but to a state of becom- that they previ- and allow victims fighting on both sides of ing. No living self can be static.” ously denied the conflict to testify at the same forum. their victims. Most scholars ascribe that to motivated Personhood refers not to a state of being but Victims and the poor did not demand rights and innovative thinking. But all three can to a state of becoming. No living self can be before the TRC, but hoped that by telling be traced directly back to a strong awareness static. Stasis means social death. According their collective story a country would be of interconnectedness. Because people share to early 20th century missionary Tom moved into changing everybody’s life. How each others pain, the audience has as much Brown, who lived over forty years among powerful this kind of interconnectedness is, right to be in the presence of the testimony

148 Human Rights and Global Values Our Common Future as the testifier, all of it is our story and there- That no sharing or change has happened Is the template of forgiveness providing fore may be public; because people who are is more an indication of a dominating non- impunity to the corrupt? Yes, if amnesty is prepared to apply for amnesty are admitting interconnecting culture clashing with an regarded in a strictly individual sense, it wrongdoing, they could therefore begin to indigenous interconnecting one, than a TRC could be seen as a dishonest way to escape change in order to be eventually re-admitted template encouraging people to be comfort- punishment. But if amnesty is regarded in able with “evil.” an interconnected way, that it is an admit- “Why did victims It seems that those who do not bear in- tance of wrongdoing and stating of a willing- terconnectedness in mind find the reasoning ness “to make up” for it in order to become and perpetrators sit in and around the TRC confusing. In an es- part of the community again, then amnesty in the same room?" say on forgiveness, the late French philoso- is NOT impunity, but profound change. It pher Jacques Derrida describes Tutu as is therefore too simplistic a reading to regard to society; and because mothers who lost “confused” and oscillating “between a non- all the amnesty-asking of the new dispensa- their loved ones, fighting for the ‘right’ or penal and non-reparative logic of ‘forgive- tion as purely a desire for impunity. I am the ‘wrong’ side, suffer alike and can only try ness’ (he calls it ‘restorative’) and a judicial suggesting that much of the support for to heal when connected to one another. logic of amnesty.” Through the interconnect- “criminals” in South Africa is embedded edness-prism however, Tutu is not simply NOT in a desire for wrongs to go unpun- Community in African Thought linking human rights and What are the implications? amnesty to religion, but is “Because people who apply Mamdani’s criticism means that exchanging using the foundation of in- truth for justice or “embracing the evil one” terconnectedness to allow for amnesty are admitting could be the beginning of a humanizing people back into humanity wrongdoing, they could process in which compassion and change through processes such as bring the ultimate form of justice – a re- forgiveness and amnesty. In therefore begin to change.” stored and caring society. other words, concepts such as amnesty and ished, but to be allowed, through negotiated In fact it is important to know that the judicial logic are not added on or simply wiedergutmachen back in the community of whole notion of evil, according to African linked to forgiveness but instead interpreted respectable citizens. philosophers, is different. Something is con- through interconnectedness which pro- At the same time, the fact that many cur- sidered to be evil not because of its intrinsic foundly changes the way these two terms are rent political leaders regard amnesty indeed nature, but by virtue of who does what used by people like Archbishop Tutu. as the SAME impunity granted to the ben- to whom. According to Setiloane, evil can Again, interconnectedness does not sim- eficiaries of apartheid, is a sign of how west- be described as living in disregard of the ply regard extracting privileges and benefits ern notions of individual rights are community. It is when you begin to deny your from the one group to give to the other, as dominating, overriding, and corroding the interconnectedness, step out of the corporate justice or restoring human rights. Intercon- indigenous notion that nobody can be in which you should be ‘building’ yourself nectedness depends on everybody’s moral ­without others. that you are committing evil. So it is exactly awareness of a deep and potentially fatal by refusing to forgive, refusing to embrace connectedness which puts an imperative on The Notion of Justice whom is regarded as evil that one begins to beneficiaries to share and build, in order for The notion of justice was not left out of the deny interconnectedness and is therefore them to regain their humanity. Intercon- equation of the TRC, as many have argued. busy with evil. nectedness lit up concepts like justice into Justice was interpreted through the world- In terms of not addressing the structural restorative justice, amnesty into admitting view of interconnectedness towards a fuller devastation of apartheid: Within a communi- wrong doing, forgiveness into re-admittance humanity. In fact, justice entered and be- tarian worldview, one may assume that forgiv- into the community of humanity and hu- came rejuvenated through a radical rethink- ing and embracing the perpetrator will man rights into responsibilities towards a ing of the grammar of justice itself and demand of him to change into a fellow citizen more humane society. You cannot have dig- through the process of human compassion that will begin to “build his personhood” nity or freedom if mine is affected. and restoration that is understood to be as through sharing and assisting his community. This kind of interconnected responsibil- important as, and should become part of, In terms of apartheid’s beneficiaries, intercon- ity shows up countries that are quick to put the rule of law. This rethinking should be nectedness assumes that whites will feel them- African leaders on trial for human rights used not only during times of difficult selves linked to the few identified perpetrators abuses, while they themselves and their ­transitions, but in European countries des- and that THAT will propel them into proc- policies sow hunger, corruption, and de- perately trying to protect themselves from esses of change, restoring, and reparation. struction in Africa. those whose interconnectedness had been

149 destroyed through colonialism and things This is a condensed version of a speech like collateral damage, who are now flocking given at the OCF conference’s session to European shores to share the spoils. on Human Rights. More can be found at This conference on Our Common www.ourcommonfuture.de/krog Future asks whether a common understand- ing of human rights is possible. I would say yes, but only when there is an awareness “Western notions of individual rights within the human rights discourse that peo- are dominating, overriding and corrod- ple can think about human rights through a frame OTHER than that of the western ing the indigenous notion that nobody individual. can be without others.”

Truth Commissions: A Worldwide Phenomenon

Since 1974, more than 30 truth commissions • Guatemala (Commission for the Disappearances of Persons in Western, were created in 28 countries. The model is Historical Clarification of Human Southern and Sabaragamuwa Provinces, being considered in the wake of mass human Rights Violations and Acts of Violence Presidential Commission of Inquiry in rights violations in other countries as well. which Caused Suffering to the to Involuntary Removal and Disappear • Argentina (National Commission on Guatemalan People, 1997) ances of Persons in the Central, North the Disappearance of Persons, 1983) • Haiti (National Commission for Truth Western, North Central and Uva • Bolivia (National Commission of and Justice, 1995) Provinces; and Presidential Commission Inquiry into Disappearances, 1982) • Indonesia (Truth and Reconciliation of Inquiry into Involuntary Removal • Chad (Commission of Inquiry on the Commission, 2004) and Disappearances of Persons in the Crimes and Misappropriations • Liberia (Truth and Reconciliation Northern & Eastern Provinces, 1994) Committed by the ex-President Habré, Commission, 2005) • Timor-Leste (Commission for his Accomplices and/or Accessories, • Morocco (Equity and Reconciliation Reception, Truth and Reconciliation, 1991) Commission, 2004) 2002) • Chile (National Commission for Truth • Nepal (Commission of Inquiry to • Uganda (Commission of Inquiry into and Reconciliation, 1990; National Locate the Persons Disappeared during the Disappearance of people in Uganda, Commission on Political Imprisonment the Panchayat Period, 1990) 1974; and Commission of inquiry into and Torture, 2003) • Nigeria (Human Rights Violations Violations of Human Rights, 1986) • Democratic Republic of Congo (Truth Investigation Commission, 1999) • Uruguay (Investigative Commission on and Reconciliation Commission, 2003) • Panama (Truth Commission, 2001) the Situation of Disappeared People • Ecuador (Truth and Justice Commis- • Paraguay (Truth and Justice and its Causes, 1985; and Peace sion, 1996; Truth Commission, 2007) Commission, 2003) Commission, 2000) • El Salvador (Commission of Truth, • Peru (Truth and Reconciliation • Yugoslavia, Federal Republic of (Truth 1992) Commission, 2000) and Reconciliation Commission, 2001) • Germany (Commission of Inquiry for • Sierra Leone (Truth and Reconciliation the Assessment of History and Conse- Commission, 2002) Source: www.amnesty.org/en/ quences of the SED Dictatorship in • South Africa (Truth and Reconciliation international-justice/issues/ Germany, 1992) Commission, 1995) truth-commissions • Ghana (National Reconciliation • South Korea (Presidential Truth Commission, 2002) Commission on Suspicious Deaths, 2000) • Grenada (Truth and Reconciliation • Sri Lanka (Presidential Commission of Commission, 2001) Inquiry into Involuntary Removal and

150 Human Rights and Global Values Our Common Future Crossing Borders The Changing Face of Global Migration “It is ... important to recognize the transnational Steven Vertovec is director at the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Religious and Ethnic Diversity in capacities of Göttingen, Germany. today's migrants.”

Most UN agencies put the number of stantially in terms of its makeup in three key There are hundreds of millions of international migrants at about 214 million ways. First of all, the numbers of interna- global migrants each year, and their people per year. Indeed, over the past 30 tional migrants represent only a quarter of numbers are growing. But unlike the mass years, the number of international migrants the estimated migrants in the world if we migrations of the 19th and 20th centuries, has doubled. However, if we look at the pro- take internal, rural–urban migration into today’s migrants are more diverse, their des- portion of international migrants, vis-à-vis account. Even though we might be dealing tinations more varied and their reasons for the growth of the global population, we’ll with internal, rural–urban migration, in leaving home more complex than ever be- see that international migration has stayed many countries this still entails considerable fore. In his keynote at the OCF conference’s about the same – about three percent – for ethnic, linguistic, and religious diversity. session on Migration and Integration, social several decades. It is projected to continue Second, most international migration scientist Steven Vertovec explored some of to do so until about 2050. happens within regions. In Europe, we have the consequences of the new migration pat- Yet while the proportion of migrants is 31 million people moving just within the terns. staying the same, I would argue that the na- continent. Thirteen million people are mov- ture of global migration has changed sub- ing from country to country within Africa.

151 And in Asia, there are 35 million people beiter. This is a myth that needs breaking. In certain political discourses it’s as- moving from region to region. Within the same group – indeed, within the sumed that transnationalism and integra- Finally, a lot of people have the idea that same family – you often find people with tion represent what you can call a zero sum international migration is mainly a matter many different legal statuses. That’s a tre- game. In other words, the more transna- of poor people moving to rich countries. mendously important factor to take into tional migrants are, the less they integrate. But the reality is that only about a third of consideration because a person’s legal status There’s a considerable amount of research international migration is made up of peo- has implications on housing, jobs, families, that shows this is not true. Surprisingly, we ple from developing countries moving to and access to public resources. Ulti- developed countries. The majority is com- mately, it impacts people’s position “What's the relationship prised of people moving from developing in society, how long they’re going to countries to developing countries, or mov- be there, their own strategies for in- between cities and the ing from developed countries to developed tegration, and so forth. nation-states in which countries. Another big change is what we can call churn, meaning something they are located?“ Fundamental Shift in Patterns that’s turning over and constantly moving. see that those who are more transnational Over about the past 30 years, we’ve seen a The fact is: Not only do you have varying and who maintain strong political, econom- fundamental shift in global migration pat- numbers of people coming into the country, ic and social links with their homelands are terns. Basically, post-war migration up un- but also large numbers of people leaving the actually more integrated. They have better til the 1970s can be characterized as large country at the same time. This is primarily employment and more to do politically in numbers of people going from a few places felt in cities. For policy makers, this should terms of engagement and participation than to a few other places. Large numbers of peo- have crucial impact: When you have popu- those who aren’t. These are counter-intuitive ple from Turkey and Yugoslavia came to lations that are turning over every year or findings that we need to get into public de- Germany, for example; lots of Algerians every couple of years, it has an impact on bates about migration and integration. went to France, and large numbers of Mex- how you have to plan. What does the future hold? In terms of icans emigrated to the United States. global migration, flows, and diversification, Since the 1980s, global migration has Transnationalism's Importance I think we can, in significant ways, expect consisted of small numbers from many Transnationalism is another important more of the same. One of the reasons we’ve places moving to many places. Not only do dimension of global migration. Transna- seen more people from more parts of the we see more people coming in small num- tionalism refers to various kinds of intensi- world coming in smaller numbers has to do bers from more countries, but I suggest that fied connections that migrants are able to with a gradual increase in living standards over the past 30 years, we’ve had a prolif- sustain with their homelands now. Since the around the world. Of course, terrible pock- eration of migration categories: Students, 1980s – and particularly since the 1990s – ets of poverty remain, but on the whole asylum seekers, environmental refugees, the capacity for migrants to be able to main- many countries are rising up economically. internally displaced people, seasonal work- tain various kinds of social, political, and ers, family reunification and marriage mi- economic connections with their homelands Migration’s Future gration, contract workers and the like. I has reached unprecedented levels. It is not the poorest who migrate, but those think a lot of the public debate loses sight Migrants have always maintained con- who are economically mobile or slightly of this proliferation in different categories. nections with their homelands. But now, due better-off. Given widespread patterns of in particular to cheap development, this suggests that future mi- “In Europe, we have 31 million telephone calls, mi- gration will be more evenly spread around grants can have a real- the world. people moving just within the time connection with To be sure, there will be uneven effects continent.” people on the other and patterns, within nations and around the side of the world. The world. Some places receive more migrants Furthermore, a lot of the public debate ability to electronically send money has also under different conditions than others. assumes that people from a particular coun- been enhanced over the last couple of years. Within countries, cities and their localized try have automatically come under a certain It is increasingly important to recognize the political economies are the engines of global migration category or a certain legal status: transnational capacities of today’s migrants, migration: Frankfurt, Berlin, Hamburg, and All Iraqis must be refugees; all Turks must who are now able to have their feet in two London are going to have different patterns be Gastarbeiter and descendants of Gastar- places at least. than other places. We are seeing rapid diver-

152 Human Rights and Global Values Our Common Future sification in rural areas in many countries, but nothing in comparison to the changes surrounding cities. This raises an important question: In the future, what’s the relationship between su- per-diverse cities and the nation-states in which they are located? Berlin already re- sembles the rest of Germany less and less. New York does not look like the United States, and London does not look like the rest of the UK. How do you politically manage a situa- tion like that? Cultural diversity is reaching a point where it is on the political agendas of most countries now. Migration-driven diversification is a core feature of contem- porary global cultural transformation, just as globalization is a core aspect of econom- ic transformation. This process has already happened. It is manageable, but it is here, and it is irreversible. Now and in the future, a nation-state’s social, political, and economic success will be determined by how well it adapts itself to increasing diversity and complexity and not by how it hides it, denies it, or fights against it. Policy makers have to make hard decisions and hard trade-offs, but they “Cities and their should do it with the knowledge that things are going to get more complex. They’re go- ing to get more diverse. And that is our com- localized political mon future.

This is a condensed version of a speech given at the OCF conference’s session on economies are Migration and Integration. the engines of global migration.”

153 Society and Secularism

The God Gap

“Rising existential security tends to bring declining emphasis on religion.”

Pippa Norris is the McGuire Lec- turer in Comparative Politics with a focus on religion at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. She has served as an expert consultant for many international bodies including the UN, UNESCO and the World Bank.

154 Human Rights and Global Values Our Common Future as blasphemous in Islamic countries, while The Growing Religiosity Gap In developing societies with rapidly demands for their suppression raised con- New evidence lends further support to the growing populations, religion is cerns about freedom of expression in West- thesis that rising existential security tends strong and getting even stronger; in most ern countries. And violent riots occurred a to bring declining emphasis on religion in advanced industrial societies, with dwin- few months later in suburban Paris housing postindustrial societies, an argument first dling populations, religion plays a steadily projects involving disaffected Franco-Magh- presented in my book Sacred and Secular: less-important role in public life. In a lecture rebi communities. Religion and Politics Worldwide, written at the OCF conference’s session on Religion Contemporary debates in Europe viv- with Ronald Inglehart and first published in and Values, Harvard University political idly demonstrate the continued relevance of 2004. This – combined with the resurgence ­scientist Pippa Norris explains the facts be- understanding religious values, including of religion in many developing countries – hind this trend and why reducing social and arguments surrounding the role of visible has led to the emergence of a growing re- economic inequality can smooth religious religious symbols, like headscarves, in pub- ligiosity gap worldwide. Demographic tensions in the future. lic arenas in France, bans on the construc- trends have reinforced this gap, with the tion of new minarets in Switzerland, and the shrinking population in secular Europe, and role of multiculturalism and Leitkultur in the growing population in developing soci- In recent years, debates about the role Germany. One widespread assumption is eties. The dynamics of secularization are of religion have become increasingly prom- that these sorts of disparate events reflect a more complex than either the simple decline inent around the world. The persistence of worldwide revival of religion. of religion that was proposed by some early high rates of churchgoing in the United I suggest the picture is more complex, States, the growing importance of liberation and empirical evidence derived from scores “Religions provide theology in Latin America, and religious of societies demonstrate growing religious conflict in the Balkans, demonstrated that divergence worldwide. On one hand, reli- reassurance that ... religion had not faded as a potent force in gious values and practices remain strong in a higher power many contemporary societies. developing societies, which have rapidly That point was reinforced by the events growing populations; and religion is making will ensure things of 9/11 in the United States, ethnic and re- a comeback in many ex-communist coun- work out.” ligious tensions in Asia, and repeated out- tries, filling the vacuum left by the collapse bursts of violent conflict between religious of communism. But at the same time, secu- sociologists or the universal resurgence of groups in Nigeria, Sudan, and India. In the larization has been occurring in most ad- religion that has been suggested by many vanced industrial societies, contemporary commentators. “The decline of religious with dwindling populations. The central thesis of Sacred and Secular This erosion of church argued that the emergence of high levels of values is not confined to attendance, religious values, existential security are expected to diminish Western Europe.” and beliefs has been most anxiety and stress, promoting feelings of clearly observed in Scandi- psychological well-being – which, in turn, EU, the rapid settlement of Muslim migrants navia and Western Europe, which has led reduce the importance of religious values in into European societies has raised important some scholars to claim that Western Europe people’s lives. Although this hypothesis has challenges for how policy makers manage is the exception – not the United States. The been controversial, it can be argued that cultural diversity, maintain social cohesion, depth of change does vary across societies virtually all of the world’s major transcend- and accommodate minorities. but the decline of religious values and prac- ent religions provide reassurance that, even Recently, events have intensified concern tices is not confined to Western Europe, by though the individual alone can’t under- about the integration of Muslims within any means. Similar developments are evi- stand or predict what lies ahead, a higher Europe. Sharp ethnic tensions arose in the dent in comparable affluent postindustrial power will ensure things work out. This be- Netherlands after the murder of filmmaker societies such as Australia, New Zealand, lief reduces stress and anxiety, enabling peo- Theo van Gogh by Islamic extremists in No- Japan, and Canada; even in the United ple to focus on coping with their immediate vember 2004. Heated protests broke out in States, a trend toward secularization is problems. Under conditions of insecurity, many countries, following the September discernable, though partly masked by the people have a powerful need to see author- 2005 publication of the ‘Muhammad’ car- large-scale immigration of people with tra- ity as both strong and benevolent – even in toons in Denmark: The cartoons were seen ditional worldviews. the face of evidence to the contrary. Through

155 strengthening feelings of security, the Since cash income is only a poor proxy, necessities of life report that religion is an processes of societal modernization have especially in subsistence economies, the important part of their daily lives, but this significant consequences for religiosity; the Afro-Barometer – an African-led series of proportion drops to just six out of ten peo- conditions of growing security that usually national public attitude surveys on democ- ple who have these basic needs met. Similar accompany the transition from agrarian to racy and gover-nance in Africa – pioneered disparities can be observed for at least week- industrial societies, and then into postin- the use of a Lived Poverty scale which meas- ly religious participation, although behav- dustrial societies, tends to reduce the sa- ures the extent to which people have been ioral indicators are always lower than the lience of religion in people’s lives. forced to go without basic necessities during expression of religious values. the past year. To construct a similar objective Experiential Security scale, the Gallup World Poll contains eight Inequality Equals Religiosity The empirical analysis presented in Sacred items that ask respondents to report to what Far from being an anomaly, the existential and Secular also demonstrated strong cor- extent they had enough money to buy food security thesis applies to the United States relations between religiosity and national or shelter in the previous year, how well they as well as to most other societies. Hence, level indicators of social and economic se- are satisfied with their standard of living and among the poorest segments of American curity, such as health and wealth. But the state of health, whether their home has basic society almost everyone reports that religion evidence then available did not establish a facilities such as running water, electricity is important to their lives, but among the direct individual level link between religios- and a landline telephone, and whether they most affluent segment, only six out of ten ity and measures of existential insecurity. have experienced health problems. These do so. Churchgoing is less strongly linked What additional evidence would provide multidimensional items were summed and with existential security, but nevertheless the further confirmation of the relationship proved to form a consistent “Lived Poverty poorest group of Americans, as measured between existential security and religiosity? Index.” by the Lived Poverty Index, are also the most Answering that question became pos- Comparing the Gallup and Afro-Barom- likely to attend religious services. Sharp in- sible in 2007 using new data which only eter results confirms that the Lived Poverty equalities in American society help to ex- became available after Sacred and Secular Index was indeed strongly correlated with plain its relatively high religiosity. was first published. The 2007 Gallup World religious values; hence some of the poorest It could be suggested that the patterns developing socie- observed so far might apply only to Roman “Have you attended a place of ties in Africa, such Catholic and Protestant Christian societies, as Chad, Rwanda but not to other religions. But the Lived worship or religious service and Mali, gave the Poverty Index predicts religious values within the last seven days?” highest priority to across nearly all religions, including Muslims religious values. as well as Catholics, Buddhists and Confu- Poll (GWP) provides data on living stan- By contrast, some of the most affluent cian/Taoists, as well as Protestants and those dards, social deprivation, exposure to soci- postindustrial societies in the world, led by of Orthodox faith. Across many compari- etal risks, and religiosity among the public Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Britain, sons, using data from both the Gallup World living in 132 societies worldwide. showed the most secular values. There are Poll survey and the World Values Survey – Two items contained in the Gallup exceptions: Many post-communist states and across scores of nations and many types World Poll are particularly useful to measure with relatively high levels of lived poverty of faith, the findings are consistent and ro- religiosity. Hence religious values are mon- were secular, while many moderate income bust. The most vulnerable populations in itored by: “Is religion an important part of countries with low levels of lived poverty are the world – those who lack the basic neces- your daily life?” Since this does not refer to also highly religious in their values, notably sities of life such as food, running water and any specific concept, meaning, or definition the oil-rich Gulf states and other predomi- electricity – are far more likely than others of ‘religion’, or to any particular practices nately Muslim countries such as Lebanon to feel that religion is important in their and beliefs, this item is the most suitable for and Algeria. lives; and to participate more often in reli- cross-faith comparisons. In addition, reli- The comparison with religious prac- gious practices. gious practices are monitored by Gallup: tices shows a similar and almost equally The indicators of both religious values “Have you attended a place of worship or strong relationship; thus without any con- and religious behavior are not simply cor- religious service within the last seven days?” trols, the Lived Poverty Index proved to be related with experience of lived poverty. To measure the experience of insecu- a significant predictor of participation in They are also strongly related to a range of rity, we monitor vulnerability to multiple religious services. Roughly nine out of ten societal level demographic indices. Hence risks and forms of social deprivation. people worldwide who lack the most basic there is a robust and consistent pattern; the

156 Human Rights and Global Values Our Common Future most religious societies (defined by both the emphasis on religion. Thus the public of regimes collapsed throughout the Soviet importance of religion and attendance at Norway, Spain, Northern Ireland, the Neth- Union and Eastern Europe. In China and religious services in the 2007 Gallup World erlands, Belgium, Switzerland, the former Vietnam, hard-line communist regimes were Poll) are also usually the ones which have East Germany, New Zealand, Sweden, Den- replaced by more pragmatic communist the highest fertility rates for women, the mark, and Australia all shifted toward saying regimes that have become increasingly mar- that God was less important in their lives ket-oriented. In the former Soviet Union “Most high-income from the earliest available survey to the lat- and Eastern Europe, the collapse of com- est one. munism was accompanied by severe eco- countries show a But many countries show increases, and nomic and social decline which left an declining emphasis all six of those showing the greatest gains ideological vacuum everywhere. are ex-communist countries: Bulgaria, Rus- Moreover, other factors contributing to on religion.” sia, China, Belarus, Serbia, and Romania. sharply rising levels of insecurity experi- Overall, the public of 13 of the 15 ex-com- enced in many post-communist societies greatest estimated population growth, and munist countries for which we have a sub- have been the social disruption caused by the highest proportion of young people in stantial time series, increased their emphasis the transition to liberal market economies the total population. on religion. The sharp drop in economic, in the early 1990s, accompanied by drastic The global contrasts are stark; hence in physical and psychological security experi- some of the world’s most affluent societies, enced by ex-communist societies is what we “The collapse of such as Sweden, Japan and Russia, the aver- suspect caused the resurgence of religion in age fertility rate for women is less than two, most ex-communist countries. This devel- communism left an generating population decline. By contrast, opment has multiple components: The col- ideological vacuum.” in countries such as Chad, Sierra Leone, and lapse of the communist ideology was a Afghanistan, the average fertility rate for central part of this, leaving people disori- cuts in the welfare state, rising unemploy- women is around six. Patterns of longevity ented and psychologically insecure and ment, and falling standards of living for dampen overall population growth in the opening an ideological vacuum that, for many social sectors. Mean levels of growth poorest societies, but nevertheless the gen- many people, religion fills. Although religion declined sharply in the early 1990s before eral tendency is for populations to grow has long been weak in these countries, Marx- recovering, at least in some countries, as most in the developing world, which is also ist ideology once filled the function of a measured by per capita GDP, but accompa- the most religious, and to fall in more secu- religion, providing psychological security, nied by higher inequalities of income and lar postindustrial societies. predictability, and a sense of meaning and wealth. The most vulnerable populations, purpose in life for many people. such as the low-skilled unemployed, the re- Resurgence of Religion? It is impossible to understand the rise to tired and the disabled, lost out heavily from Early versions of modernization theory, power of communist movements in these the transition to market economies. Not from Karl Marx to Max Weber, held that countries without recognizing the motivat- surprisingly, some of the post-communist religious beliefs were dying out and would ing power that the communist worldview countries which made the most successful disappear with the spread of education and once had. Many thousands of true believers economic transitions, such as the Czech Re- scientific knowledge. More recently, it has sacrificed their lives for the communist cause public, Poland, and East Germany, are also become apparent that religion continues to during the Russian revolution and civil war, the ones where religiosity eroded. play a prominent role, leading to claims of during the Long March in China, and during Lastly the liberalization of expression a “Global Resurgence of Religion.” The truth the Vietnam War. For many decades, com- and religious freedom also probably con- lies between these two extremes. When munism seemed to be the wave of the future. tributed towards the more open expression examined in the global longitudinal per- The belief that they were building a better of religious values and practices, particu- spective provided by the World Values Sur- society may have given a sense of purpose larly in the Chinese case. In the past, com- vey, it becomes evident that religion has to the lives of many people. But during the munist regimes systematically repressed indeed become more important in many 1970s and 1980s, Marxist ideology began religion – but during the last decade, religion countries – but it has continued to decline losing credibility; fewer and fewer people has been making a comeback. It has not re- in many others. believed that communist regimes were cruited equally from all strata: It has tended We do not find a global resurgence of building an ideal society that represented to attract the least happy people – those who religion, as some observers have claimed. the wave of the future. By 1990 communism feel the greatest need for security, reassur- Most high-income countries show declining was generally discredited, and communist ance, predictability, and social support.

157 Religious values have indeed become It was not surprising, therefore, that That doesn’t mean religiosity is growing more important in many countries – but during the last decade American sociologists stronger in secure high-income societies. this has continued to decline in salience in mounted a sustained counterattack on the Rather, growing acceptance of divorce, abor- many others. And one finds a clear pattern basic premises of secularization theory. This tion, homosexuality, gender equality, and underlying these changes. In recent decades critique threw many former proponents on the spread of secular norms have led to the religion has become increasingly important the defensive. The simplistic assumption that political mobilization of those with tradi- in two types of countries: Developing coun- religion was in decline everywhere, common tional religious orientations. Precisely be- tries and ex-communist societies, where the in earlier decades, had become implausible cause their numbers are declining, people collapse of communism has opened up new to even the casual observer. Too many coun- with traditional religious values see key re- inequalities and insecurities, especially for ter-examples existed around the world. ligious norms as eroding – and they have vulnerable populations such as older wom- The religious market argument – a set become more active, making religious issues en dependent upon state benefits. But this of explanations that applied supply-and- increasingly salient. Conversely, in the long resurgence of religious values is by no means demand theories from economics to under- term, if high levels of existential security are universal. Among the public of high-income stand religion – sought to reconstruct our conducive to secularization, then expanding countries – who have grown up with high thinking about the primary drivers in reli- human security through sustainable devel- levels of existential security – the impor- gious faith. The attempt was long overdue, opment around the world, and economic tance of religious values is low and has con- but the religious market theory was funda- equality within societies, may contribute to tinued to decline. mentally mistaken in trying to generalize reducing tensions over religious values. from the distinctive American experience Conclusions and Implications to the world as a whole. It is clear that the This is a condensed version of a speech In recent decades public interest in religious U.S. public remains far more religious than given at the OCF conference’s session on contrasts around the world has grown tre- the public of most other postindustrial so- Religion and Values. More can be found mendously, and the debate about seculariza- cieties, but we believe that this largely re- at www.ourcommonfuture.de/norris tion theory and its recent critiques has flects other causes than those cited by become increasingly relevant to contempo- religious market theory. rary concerns. The idea of secularization has a long and distinguished history in the social Security and Secularism sciences with many seminal thinkers arguing New evidence confirms the finding that, with that religiosity was declining throughout rising levels of existential security, the public Western societies. of virtually all advanced industrial societies Yet the precise reasons for this erosion tend to move toward more secular orienta- of spirituality were never entirely clear. Max tions. Earlier perceptions of this process gave Weber attributed secularization to the rise to the mistaken assumption that religion spread of education and scientific knowl- was disappearing. “God is dead,” proclaimed edge; our own interpretation emphasizes the Nietzsche more than a century ago. A massive role of existential security. But by the mid- body of empirical evidence indicates that his 1960s the claim that religion was in a state negative forecast for religious values was wrong. As a result of con- “The world as a whole trasting demographic trends now has more people with in rich and poor countries, the world as a whole now has traditional religious values more people with tradition- than ever before.” al religious views than ever before – and they constitute of terminal decline rested on flimsy evidence. a growing proportion of the world’s popula- Its proponents cited empirical evidence of tion. The social and political divisions declining churchgoing in Western Europe, between those with religious and secular and a handful of case studies that fit the the- values, beliefs, and identities are thus grow- sis, rather than a systematic examination of ing – contributing to many of the tensions empirical evidence from many countries. observed today in contemporary Europe.

158 Human Rights and Global Values Our Common Future Global Young Faculty Project “Interfaith Pavilion"

Promoting Religious Dialogue in the Heart of the Ruhr

Few topics are more contentious in today’s group sought the help of local artists and pavilion, not the student projects. It was the Europe than the role of religion in public architects and erected an interfaith pavilion conversation. I am still really quite moved by life. With voters in some countries restrict- in the downtown square of Essen – the cent- that.” That spirit of dialogue characterized ing the building of mosques in tradition- er of Germany’s diverse Ruhr region – in the the project from its inception. The Global ally Christian city centers, the discussion summer of 2010. The center of the pavilion Young Faculty group sought the expertise of how best to negotiate religious divides consisted of a tower six meters high and two of artists and architects who knew how to is more relevant than ever. Drawing from meters broad. The tower was surrounded by design and build public installations. the expertise of architects, artists, stu- a building fence secured with barbed wire to “Scientists have a completely different dents, and scholars, Global Young Faculty hint at exclusion – but with a small entrance. way of conveying things than the artists,” members created a multi-media project in “The concept behind that was to have says Nagel. “Scientists are trained to go for Essen that tried to capture the essence of this tower as a placeholder for different the maximum unambiguity. The artists had this debate. ­religious traditions that might stand there,” to create objects which had to be interpret- says Alexander-Kenneth Nagel, the head of ed. These were issues of translation that we As much as religion deals with the in- the project and a junior professor of the have never been confronted with before.” tangible, dialogue about religious rights and Sociology of Religion at the Ruhr-Universi- Nagel and the group had to figure out beliefs is often characterized by hard edges. ty in Bochum. “In Germany, churches are what story they wanted to tell with this Boundaries arise between those religious well acknowledged in our city centers be- project. They decided to highlight the idea groups allowed into the heart of the com- cause they are seen as a legitimate part of that many people are moved by religious munity and those relegated to its fringe. In our self-understanding. But you will hardly questions, and because of this, societies need Germany, where cities are growing more ever see a mosque or Hindu temple.” to develop strategies on how to mediate be- diverse every day, the question of who can The group asked passersby to imagine tween people when it comes to religious worship where is becoming progressively that a mosque was being built on the spot. dialogue. “How this religious understanding more important. Nagel says they got “a lot of controversial can be put into context is one of the chal- The Global Young Faculty group on Re- reactions” – from people who agreed that lenges that we have to face,” says Nagel. “The ligion and Values challenged conceptions of they would be uncomfortable with a mosque earlier we start to deal with that challenge, religious identity, belonging, and place in its in the middle of Essen to a group of Muslim the greater the chance that the situation will project Sondernutzung, or “special permit.” men on their way back from Friday prayer end in harmony.” When people want to place an object in a who wondered why their faith wasn’t more public square in Germany, they must apply a part of the city’s fabric. More can be found at at for a Sondernutzung permit. This means The Global Young Fellows wanted to http://sondernutzung.wordpress.com/ the public space is not actually public. It is spark debate among Essen residents. Inside The Sondernutzung documentary: limited and governed. The Global Young the tower, they placed questions and left http://vimeo.com/16850785 ­Faculty group says this also refers to religious paper for people to respond. communities that are not Christian. To ex- “This turned out to be the main attrac- plore this topic of religious exclusion, the tion for people,” Nagel said. “Not the main

165 Intellectual Capital The Battle The West has historically led the global race back to China. That has become a very im- for talent. Many of those students who portant strategy. Some people even call this travel abroad for their education never For the the Chinese government’s calculated strat- return to their home countries to live and egy for development. work – or at least they didn’t used to. Chi- How is China pushing return migration? na is a major example that educational Best Minds They give you a lot of titles and publicity to patterns are changing. Chinese students encourage return migration. Sometimes abroad are going home after receiving their they give you administrative support. If you degrees. In an interview, immigrant expert want to set up a start-up company, they give Wei Shen, a professor of international you tax breaks. They also have preferential ­affairs in France and a Chinese emigrant policies for land use, so you see a mush- himself, explains how China is going from rooming of science parks around China. brain drain to brain gain. What impact will all of this return migra- tion have? Will it result in liberalization? When economists evaluate the future Shen: I hope so! What I have told you is very prosperity of countries, education levels positive: Win, win, win. Win for the sending are sometimes overlooked or at least un- countries, win for the receiving countries and derplayed. How much of an impact does win for the migrants. But some of them told education have on a country’s future? me that they still have problems reintegrating. Shen: I think what is more important is It’s not just knowledge – it is also politics. A looking at the soft infrastructure of the lot of them experience more culture shock in economy – the people. In the end, it is peo- China than abroad. Most Chinese political ple who make the economy. Winston leaders have studied abroad, including mem- Churchill once said, “The empires of the bers of the top academies of science or social future are the empires of minds.” So it is science. This kind of influence and impact really the brainpower that will be important. will not change things overnight. You will see That will differentiate between nations. That it gradually. OCF Fellow Wei Shen, born in 1981, origi- will decide who will have a better advantage Do you think other countries are doing nally from Shanghai teaches international for economic development. relations at the ESSCA School of Manage- enough to keep their most gifted scholars? How is this race for talent playing out? ment in France's Loire Valley. He first came Shen: There was interesting research by a Shen: I believe the brain race or the talent to Europe a decade ago as a doctoral foundation in the United States on why the race starts from student migration. It’s the student in the Netherlands. country is losing its brightest talents. The competition to get the brightest students and study showed it’s because the country takes to educate them both internally and to at- it for granted that people will stay. There is tract talents from outside the country. This not a lot of policy to encourage them to also blends with the internationalization of capitalize on their brainpower. higher education and in some countries the south become main sending countries of What do you think will happen in this race commercialization of higher education. Like talents to the global North. But my research for talent? What does the future look like? what we’ve seen in England, Australia, shows that in China more and more people Shen: Whether you are traditional sending America, and even Asia, getting interna- are returning to their home country. In countries or traditional receiving countries, tional students has become a very important China, we have a funny nickname for them. the future is being decided right now. Coun- financial resource. We call them sea turtles. Sea turtles leave the tries will have to get prepared because the A lot of your research focuses on trends in shore for the sea and then they come back talent war is a war without bombs or with- Chinese migration. How has the flow of to lay their eggs. Chinese people go to some out weapons. It’s a silent war. Different gov- talent in and out of China changed? of the best institutions in North America, ernments have already started developing Shen: Traditionally, we talk a lot about Europe, Australia, and Asia to study. They new incentives and initiatives. The competi- brain drain – where countries in the global accumulate knowledge and then they come tion for the future will be fierce.

166 Human Rights and Global Values Our Common Future South to North Changes Christianity has long been viewed as a fun- Jenkins: At the moment, Christianity around damentally European-American phenom- the world is becoming much more charis- enon. But that is changing, and fast: There in Global matic. That’s important because it means are now more than 400 million Christians Christianity becomes a very liberating force, in Africa, compared to about 300 million quite a radicalizing force on a personal basis. in North America and nearly 600 million Christianity That means a distinctive kind of worship style, in Europe, according to the World Chris- a belief in direct divine intervention in terms tian Database. By 2050 there will be a bil- of healing and miracles. That represents quite lion African Christians, while the numbers a revolutionary social and political change. in the West will stay relatively stable. For Will the fact that Christianity is growing Philip Jenkins, a historian of religion, these faster in the global South impact the way demographic shifts mark a dramatic Westerners practice Christianity in the change in how the faith is practiced – and future? are an important phenomenon for policy- Jenkins: It already is affecting the West, makers to consider. In a conversation at the particularly Christianity in Europe. Because OCF conference, he talked about how the of migration, on a typical Sunday in London growth of Christianity in the global South half the people in churches are black – either will play out. African or Afro-Caribbean. By 2050, the United States will be close to being a coun- You’re arguing traditional concepts of try in which whites will no longer form an Christianity as a white, European-Ameri- absolute majority. That means much of the can religion no longer apply. Why is this so religious style in the United States will be of important to understanding our common Latino, Asian or African origin. So when I future? talk about Christianity in the global South, Jenkins: Partly because most people have the global South is increasingly influencing a kind of assumption as to the direction of practices and theology in the North. the world. They know religion is declining Has competition with other faiths, such as Philip Jenkins is the Edwin Erle Sparks in Europe and therefore the assumption is Islam, had an impact on the way Christian- Professor of Humanities at Penn- that the religion of the future is Islam and sylvania State University, where he ity is practiced in the global South today? Islam seems to be the natural religion of the specializes in the study of history and Jenkins: The normal experience of Chris- non-Euro-American world. What I want to religion, particularly Christianity. tianity in most of the world is in the form suggest is Christianity has at least as impor- of a minority religion or a religion coexist- tant a role. If you are interested in the state ing with other faiths such as Islam. That of the poorer people of the world, if you are position makes proselytizing and evangeliz- interested in issues of development, then ing much more difficult. It means you have Christianity is the key force for understand- to be much more conscious at every stage ing that. of your interactions with other religions. Why is the faith growing so rapidly in That competitive tension can have a moral places like Africa? impact, too. If you’re in a society where Jenkins: There has been a lot of conversion Europe, and there’s a great deal of migration Islam is the main competitor, it means you to Christianity: In the last hundred years and globalization. These countries are grow- have to be much more cautious about probably the most important single thing ing very rapidly. appearing liberal and tolerating feminism that happened in Africa is a large part of the Are these changes having an impact on how or supporting gay rights issues. If you do, it population went from animist religions to Christianity is practiced globally? Are Af- may seem like you’re forfeiting the moral Christianity or Islam. But the most impor- ricans and others gravitating towards high ground to Muslims. tant reason is demographic. We have far traditional Catholicism or towards more higher birth rates in Africa than we do in evangelical styles of worship?

167 Integration and Values Opening Immigration is one of the key issues facing Orgad has researched a broad range of Europe in the future. Across the continent, topics – everything from constitutional policy makers are grappling with ways Doors, questions to the law of war. But his greatest to welcome immigrants without eroding passions are immigration and citizenship, the traditions and values of the dominant particularly how to reconcile nations’ right culture. Can liberal values withstand the Closing to self-determination with immigrants’ in- pressures of immigration? Expert in terests. He’s in the midst of writing a book immigration Liav Orgad, who took part in Minds called Cultural Defense of Nations: Liberal the conference’s session on Human Rights, Democracy and Cultural Citizenship, which argues that efforts to force immigrants to he hopes to finish in 2011. conform to European norms ultimately In his book he argues that countries backfire, and a more accommodating posi- should define culture in a limited way when tion will have more success. pondering what should be expected of im- migrants looking to integrate. Immigration and integration questions Orgad thinks Europeans should look to seem to be constantly in the news – from the United States, where immigrants are German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s con- asked to subscribe to values enshrined in the troversial claim that multiculturalism in national constitution but not specific cul- Germany has failed to aggressive positions tural values. In Germany, for example, a against Muslim immigrants taken by politi- hypothetical citizenship test that asks im- cians from the Netherlands to Switzerland migrants to accept the concepts of the rule and Italy. of law and human dignity would be appro- As many Europeans have become priate, but rules that asked them to promise alarmed that their cultural values are being to eat German food or listen to German eroded, countries have created immigration music would not. “It’s more legitimate for policies designed to protect liberal culture nation-states to protect their own constitu- values. But should they be doing so? tion,” he says. Liav Orgad, born in 1977, is a law Liav Orgad, an OCF Fellow and assistant Orgad acknowledges some Europeans professor at the Interdisciplinary law professor at the Interdisciplinary Center Center Herzliya in Israel. are worried that increased immigration is Herzliya in Israel, says European countries literally changing the cultural framework need to tread carefully. “Liberal states, in of the continent. But at the same time, there order to preserve and protect their liberal are tough questions to be asked about what values, are turning to illiberal means – and it really means to be European in the first this is contradictory,” he says. place, and whether forced assimilation As an example of illiberal means, he actually degrades the very idea of being points to documents prospective citizens in European. the Netherlands must sign affirming their “In Europe there is an expectation you support of things such as homosexuality, will be integrated into one dominant culture. or to requirements in some German states There is an expectation Turks in Germany that immigrants have a basic knowledge will become German – but what does it of Goethe or Beethoven to pass citizenship “The proposition here is you must be mean to become German?” Orgad asks. tests.Such requirements, which he says are liberal in order to live in a liberal state and “Does this concept include some space for often intended to quietly assimilate foreign- this goes against the very concept of a lib- multicultural ideas? We have to look at the ers into the majority culture, single people eral state,” he says. “The idea of multicultur- principal ideas and European values of pro- out because of their culture and are ulti- alism is you can pick and choose whatever tecting state neutrality and rejecting dis- mately counterproductive, Orgad argues. culture or ideas you want.” crimination.”

168 Human Rights and Global Values Our Common Future Embracing Religion Mixing Many of history’s most powerful political they’re living in the 19th century. They talk leaders came from a religious background. about secular statecraft as if it is a God- Often, their religious motivations had a Faith and given right of mankind, forgetting that some great impact on the political landscape. of the greatest killers of our times have been Today, Western societies ignore the power- perfectly secular. Secular statesmen killed ful influence of religion – sometimes at Politics people or maimed them. They organized their peril. That’s why political psycholo- genocides on absolutely secular instrumen- gist Ashis Nandy, one of India’s most emi- tal grounds. The United States has a very nent intellectuals, argues that we should good example of that, with its campaigns embrace religious discourse in the public against American Indians. So has the Soviet sphere rather than relegating it to the Union. So has China. So talking about secu- fringe. Ashis Nandy gave a lecture on lar statecraft as a be-all and end-all of human the politics of religion at the session on endeavor, I think is an exceedingly short- Religion and Values of the Our Common sighted and, if I might add, stupid endeavor. Future conference. Why have Western societies emphasized secularism so strongly? What role does religion play in a Nandy: Because Western intellectuals are democracy? guided by history. They are looking back at Nandy: Most important in any democracy the times when religion led to wars. But the is that people have a right to bring their own great wars of our time were not initiated by preferences into politics. In many societies extremists like Al-Qaeda, whose adherents and communities, these preferences include are a small, hopelessly outnumbered minor- personal religious beliefs. You cannot deploy ity. I’m not a believer myself. I come to this thought police to make sure people don’t position because I am coming through a mix religion and public life. I suspect this democratic system and I do believe that a mixture of religion and politics is frowned democracy just cannot ignore the desires of upon by many societies where religion has the people. If you do, then you get the worst Ashis Nandy is a Senior Honorary Fellow gone into decline. Religion has become a out of religion and then you cannot deploy at the Center for the Study of Developing private belief system. Faith, for many dec- Societies in New Delhi, India. its strengths. You cannot get Martin Luther ades now, has been a matter to be settled Kings from that kind of system – but you within a family or a closed small commu- can always get Osama bin Ladens. nity – not something that has an important principles from Buddhism. I look at South How do you open up a dialogue between role in politics, or for that matter social and Africa’s Truth and Reconciliation Commis- the secular and religious spheres? economic choices. But in some societies and sion, which I consider a magnificent effort. Nandy: By listening. Listening is a great art in some communities, it matters. And this Whether it’s successful or not is a different and I think in our times people have less contradiction, this conflict, cannot be easily matter, but it is a superbly creative innova- time to listen. They would rather write a blog solved within the model of religion available tion. That was the brainchild of Bishop Des- for the Internet or passively view a more to the western societies because they are used mond Tutu. So some of the most creative entertaining speaker. I think listening to or- to a tamed version of religion – a housebro- efforts in our times have been religious. dinary people going about their lives in or- ken version of religion. Do you think political leaders underesti- dinary ways is a great art. Often you have to What happens when religion enters into mate religion’s role in democracies? read between the lines to find out what they political discourse? Nandy: Why blame politicians? The politi- are trying to say. Only then can you some- Nandy: I come from a country that produced cians have to go to the people. They have to how summon the experiences of human- Gandhi, who explicitly mixed religion with cater to the tastes of the people. Even if they kind, which do not fall within your known politics; a country where at the moment one hate it, they have to take into account the world. This leads to a kind of intuitive play of the most interesting characters in interna- preferences and the opinions of the people. with the unknown and the strange, which tional politics, the Dalai Lama, derives his What about the intellectuals? They talk as if can be very creative.

169 Cardinal Values

A Soft-Spoken Fighter for Religious Freedom

From the highest ranks of the Catho- Born in Shanghai in 1932, Zen studied port of high human ideals.”One thing lic Church, Joseph Cardinal Zen Ze-Kiun theology in Rome and Hong Kong and he is sure of is that China’s hybrid is keeping the world’s focus on the freedoms taught theology at the Holy Spirit Seminary of authoritarian control and unfettered of Chinese Catholics in Hong Kong and on College in Hong Kong. He was named bish- market capitalism is a morally bankrupt the mainland. Through persistent, peaceful op of Hong Kong in 2002 and represented system with a doubtful future, despite its protest he’s managed to give a voice to the Hong Kong’s 300,000 Catholics for seven rapid growth in the past two decades. underdog both inside and outside the years in all, ending with his retirement in “Surely we are not in favor of capitalism church. His presence at the Our Common 2009. In 2006, he was elevated to the College especially as it exists in China,” Zen says. Future conference’s session on Human of Cardinals by Pope Benedict XVI. He “China has the worst kind of capitalism – it’s Rights was a reminder of the challenges remains a voice of conscience and a thorn capitalism without all those guarantees of activists face when confronting authoritar- in the side of the Chinese regime, which fair competition.” ian systems head-on. refuses to acknowledge the authority of the And unsurprisingly, Zen has spoken out Pope in Rome and requires Catholic priests in support of other activists targeted by au- Since rule of Hong Kong was transferred in China to answer first to Beijing. thorities in Beijing. After Chinese democracy from Britain to China in 1997, the island has As bishop, he took part in demonstra- activist Liu Xiabo was prevented from accept- become a sort of bridge to the mainland – tions against the Chinese government’s in- ing his Nobel Peace Prize in 2010, Zen was but also a battleground where more than a terference in church affairs, from the right eager to lend his support to his imprisoned century of British sensibilities and expecta- to organize public protests to the authority countryman. “We are happy that the commis- tions clash continuously with a very different to control parochial schools in Hong Kong. sion was courageous enough to face the threat Chinese culture. “I think it’s the duty of the pastor to lead the of the powerful government,” Zen said. “It’s Joseph Cardinal Zen Ze-Kiun, a soft- people in defending human rights when- not acceptable today to condemn a man to 11 spoken, slight man with a fierce reputation ever there’s a challenge,” Zen says. years just because he has peacefully presented as a crusader for the rights of Hong Kong’s Zen has fought with the Chinese govern- some remedy to the very serious situation of ment over specific a country” through his writing. Zen hopes peaceful protest and rights he feels the Now 79, Zen is retired from his duty as authorities are tak- a bishop – but hardly inactive. He still teach- consistent international pressure ing away from es, writes, and attends conferences all over will change China for the better. Hong Kong’s Cath- the world. olics, but he’s also And he still hopes that peaceful protest Catholics, has been in this mix for decades. been a strong voice in favor of human rights and consistent international pressure will “There were some very basic human rights beyond Hong Kong’s borders. Sometimes, change China for the better, especially as problems in Hong Kong right after the that means walking a narrow line between younger, more internationally aware cadres handover,” Zen says now. “The British colo- politics and religion. “The Catholic Church enter the country’s leadership. “In the long nial regime couldn’t have been called a de- is never in favor of capitalism or socialism run, I think it will change,” he says. “I am mocracy, but that regime respected many – we are against both,” Zen says. “We are in sure in China, in the lower echelon of lead- freedoms. After the handover, we had to de- favor of the universal distribution of mate- ership, there are people who are looking to fend ourselves from intervention from the rial goods for everybody, but also in support the world with their own eyes. They must totalitarian regime in China.” of disciplined market economy with a sup- feel the need for a change.”

170 Human Rights and Global Values Our Common Future Joseph Cardinal Zen Ze-Kiun served as Bishop of Hong Kong from 2002 to 2009 and was elevated to cardinal of the Catholic Church in 2006.

171 Impressions from the conference.

172 Human Rights and Global Values Our Common Future 4 Questions, 12 Answers

“What fact makes you the most optimistic about our common future?"

Grimm: Humankind has always had a great capacity to imagine. This innate creativity will help us craft new solutions to pervasive problems. Limbach: The readiness to think and act in global dimensions. We also shouldn’t forget that the progress of science and technology should be combined with an ethical discourse. Pries: I am optimistic that there are so many young scholars working together with senior scholars on problems that face us all. Stimulated by events like OCF they are specialists in some field and ready to intertwine with other specialists and disciplines.“

“What is the greatest challenge facing us in the next 25 years?" Grimm: International organizations like the United Nations, European Union and World Trade Organization are making more and more political decisions with direct effect on state citizens. So we need to address how this decision-making power can be democratically legitimized and submitted to certain fundamental rules of law. Limbach: I am concerned about the increasing violence of state agencies and private persons. Science gives us no clear answer as to what is the cause of this problem – whether it is television or something else – but I observe in capital towns like Berlin or Mexico City there is much more violence than ever before. Pries: Science and knowledge is developing so fast it is increasingly difficult to keep pace. This leads us to the problematic situation where everyone is in a small box looking at small problems and no one overseas the landscape of boxes or would be able to put together all the pieces.

“What piece of advice would you give young researchers in your field today?" Grimm: Up to now there is no (or only a very thin) equivalent to a constitution on the international level. We need more scholars working on this problem. A convincing solution is not yet in sight. Limbach: Firstly, I advise studying transnational and international law; secondly, learn at least two foreign languages; and thirdly, spend some time studying abroad. Pries: Young researchers should develop deep knowledge in specific fields while at the same time relating their findings to the big challenges of humankind and act interdisciplinary.

“What was the most surprising insight you had at this conference?" Grimm: I was happy to see the young generation’s passion and concern for human rights. Limbach: The ability of the young faculty to combine theoretical thinking and empirical studies with a readiness to recommend concrete strategies. Pries: I was struck by the deep social changes a country like China is experiencing and the lack of knowledge and sensitivity to those changes in Europe. We need to understand global developments for assessing local implications for topics like migration, global warming and social inequality.

Ludger Pries served as scientific advisor for the OCF session on Migration and Integration (together with Klaus J. Bade), Jutta Limbach and Dieter Grimm served as scientific advisors for the OCF session on Human Rights. Pries holds a chair for sociology at Ruhr Universität Bochum. Jutta Limbach is former president of the Goethe Institute and also of the Federal Constitutional Court of Germany. Dieter Grimm is professor emeritus of public law at the Humboldt University of Berlin and permanent fellow of the Wissenschaftskolleg (Institute for Advanced Study) Berlin.

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Four days, two cities, hundreds of participants hailing from six continents: The Our Common Future conference was an inspiring event and a rare opportunity for researchers and policy makers to meet and talk beyond the boundaries of specialty and about some of the most pressing and complex issues of our times. For the young scholars in attendance, especially those from the Ruhr region Global Young Faculty and the international ranks of the OCF Fellows, the conference was also the culmination of a year spent meeting and talking with colleagues in their fields. Together and individually, they explained their research to an elite audience: Renowned senior scholars in their respective fields and peers as well. But the conference wasn’t all keynote speeches and PowerPoint presentations. It was also an ­opportunity for busy scholars to meet and mingle in a relaxed, informal setting – a perfect environment for accidental inspiration, professional networking, and making friends. From the ornate banquet in the Gallery of Hannover’s Royal Herrenhausen Gardens to a gala evening at Essen’s Philharmonic concert hall, there was an ample cultural program to distract par- ticipants from the complex topics of the daytime sessions. On the pages to follow are some impressions of a conference that was invigorating, enlightening, and a step forward in the effort to create a better common future for us all.

Our Common Future was presented by:

The VolkswagenStiftung is an independent, Deutsche Messe develops, plans and runs Stiftung Mercator is one of Germany’s larg- nonprofit foundation under private law with trade fairs and exhibitions in Germany and est foundations. It initiates and funds its head office in Hannover. It is dedicated abroad. It has extensive expertise and expe- projects that promote better educational to the support of the humanities and social rience in planning and executing around 100 opportunities in schools and universities. sciences as well as science and technology in trade fairs and exhibitions in Germany and In the spirit of Gerhard Mercator, it supports higher education and research. abroad every year, involving 25,000 exhibi- initiatives that embody the idea of open- Since 1962, the VolkswagenStiftung has tors, 2 million visitors and 15,000 journalists mindedness and tolerance through intercul- funded more than 29,300 projects with a from over 100 different countries. tural encounters, encouraging the sharing total of over 3.6 billion euros. The money The main emphasis continues to be on flag- of knowledge and culture. spent on grants is generated by investing the ship international trade fairs for capital The Stiftung Mercator provides a platform capital of the Foundation – currently some goods, run by Deutsche Messe in Hannover. for new ideas to enable people – regardless 2.4 billion euros. The aim of these trade shows is to represent of their national, cultural or social back- The VolkswagenStiftung funds research the latest markets and highlight interna- ground – to develop their personality, be- projects in pathbreaking areas and provides tional market trends. They are also a forum come involved in society and make the most assistance to academic institutions wishing for applications-oriented demonstrations of of the opportunities available to them. In to improve the structural conditions for the latest technology, as well as new launch- this way it is committed to inspiring ideas. their work. In particular, the Foundation es of cutting-edge technologies and presen- Stiftung Mercator takes an entrepreneurial, perceives its mission as supporting the up- tations of the latest research findings. international and professional approach to coming generation of researchers and pro- Apart from its expertise in the running of its work. moting interdisciplinary and international international trade fairs and the unique It has a particular affinity with the Ruhr re- collaboration. ­capacity of its exhibition center, Deutsche gion, the home of its founding family. Messe offers exhibitors an excellent range of www.volkwagenstiftung.de www.stiftung-mercator.de quality services, ensuring the best possible support before, during, and after the show. www.messe.de

188 Our Common Future In cooperation with

Hannover on the river Leine is the capital of The Ruhr region was the European Capital the federal state of Lower Saxony (Nieder- of Culture 2010. As an unconventional “me- sachsen), Germany. With a population of tropolis in the making,” it is well on its way more than 500,000 inhabitants, the city is to becoming a new center in Europe. one of northern Germany’s major political, In line with the motto “Change through economic, and cultural centers. The Han- Culture – Culture through Change,” 53 nover fairground, following a series of exten- towns and cities in the region joined forces. sions in preparation for Expo 2000, is the They are proud to be able to play host to all largest in the world and every year hosts those who wish to experience the breathtak- important commercial expositions such as ing change that has seen Europe’s legendary the Hannover Fair and CeBIT. One of the coal and steel region become a new type of most famous and beautiful sights in Han- polycentric cultural metropolis. nover are the Royal Gardens of Herren- RUHR.2010 GmbH is the organization re- hausen. sponsible for preparing and implementing With its numerous museums and theaters, the cultural capital program and its accom- seven universities and colleges and a student panying marketing and tourism activities. population of 33,000, Hannover is also Along with its partners, it supports the de- home to the arts and sciences, and certainly velopment of sustainable effective structures well worth a visit! for the Ruhr Metropolis. RUHR.2010 has brought together regional www.hannover.de players from the areas of culture, politics, and business to form a creative alliance. Their ambitious aim is to transform the Ruhr region into an important player in the future of Europe, and give the area a new and unique branding on the map of Europe. www.ruhr2010.de

189 Publication Details Our Common Future Conference Summary Report published in May 2011

Publishers VolkswagenStiftung Kastanienallee 35 | 30519 Hannover | Germany Stiftung Mercator GmbH Huyssenallee 46 | 45128 Essen | Germany Idea Jens Rehländer (VolkswagenStiftung) Coordination Beate Reinhold (VolkswagenStiftung), Felix Streiter, Marisa Klasen (Stiftung Mercator) Publishing House G+J Corporate Editors GmbH | Stubbenhuk 10 | D-20459 Hamburg | www.corporate-editors.com CEO Soheil Dastyari, Peter Haenchen, Julia Jäkel

Concept Joerg Strauss (Head of Corporate Literature)

Managing Editor Margitta Schulze Lohoff (V.i.S.d.P, ­responsible for the editorial content), G+J Corporate Editors ­GmbH, Stub- benhuk 10, D-20459 Hamburg, Tel.: +49 (0)40 37030. Responsi- bility for the content of scientific presentations and keynotes is solely that of the individual authors.

Chief Editor Andrew Curry (www.andrewcurry.com) Editors Caitlan Carroll, Anuradha Seth Hanig, Moises Mendoza

Art Director Ilga Tick Layout Diana Schulz, Adriane Krakowski

Illustrations Matthias Grundner

Photography Andreas Reeg

Photo Editing TANK management | Fact-checking Egbert­ Scheu­nemann | Proofreading textra GmbH | Production Sören Hohmann | Typesetting MWW Hamburg | Printing sellier druck, Freising (Appl Group)

190 Our Common Future Rights Reprints in part or as a whole are only permitted with explicit­ approval of Volks­wagenStiftung and Stiftung Mercator GmbH. The editors are not responsible for unsolicited manuscripts and pictures. This report refrains from using academic titles.­ Photos Cover: Andreas Reeg, p.13: doc-stock/photo- take, p.14: BASF, p.15: Fuse/Getty Images, p.16: Peter Bialobrzeski/laif, p.17: Mimi Mollica/Corbis, p.20-28: Andreas Reeg, p.32: Jürgen Schmidt-Lohmann, p.36: Andreas Reeg, p.41: plainpicture/Mira, p.42/43: plainpicture/Stephan Zirwes, p.44/45: Dinodia Photo Library Pvt. Ltd., p.46: Andreas Reeg, p.48: istockphoto (Turkey-pictures), fotolia (Zoll­verein), p.50: Andreas Reeg, p.51: personal archive, p.53: ­personal archive, p.54-63: Andreas Reeg, p.66/67: Sven Torfinn/laif, p.68/69: alimdi.net/Erwin Rachbauer, p.71: personal archive, p.72-88: Andreas Reeg, p.92: Jürgen Schmidt-Lohmann, p.96/97: Bernhard Edmaier, p.98/99: Minden Pictures/Masterfile, p.100/101: action press/Newspix, p.103-105: Andreas Reeg, p.106: source: Google Earth © 2011 Cnes/Spot Image, 2011 TerraMetrics, p.108-125: Andreas Reeg, p.128/129: Alan Schein Photography/Corbis, p.130/131: picture-Alliance/ANSA/Guido Montani, p.132/133: Sipa Press, p.134: Jason Horowitz/Corbis, p.136: Andreas Reeg, p.137: ­personal archive, p.138-154: Andreas Reeg, p.159: Robert Kah/imagetrust, p.160/161: mauritius images/alamy, p.162/163: picture-alliance/k94/ZUMA Press, p.164: Interfaith Pavilion Project/­Alexander von Freeden, p.166-167: Andreas Reeg, p.168: Jürgen Schmidt-Lohmann, p.169-187: Andreas Reeg, p.180: Jürgen Schmidt-Lohmann

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