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Issue Number 23 TThhee Summer 2015 SSoocciiaalliisstt CCoorrrree-spondent £2.00 The European Central Bank Frankfurt, Germany. Angela Wolfgang Merkel Schauble

Yanis Varoufakis

n Greek lesson: the EU is bad for the people Page 4

n Labour’s election success n UK General Election and aftermath Page 6 in London - Page 9 Jeremy Corbyn “On a clear anti-austerity n SNP’s fiscal figures do not add up - Page 13 platform.” Islington Tribune Or back to New Labour? n Ukraine: escalating into full-scale war? - Page 16

n Yemen: Saudis’ war to regain control - Page 20 Labour ship Arnold Mesches and his Leader Liz Andy Yvette n ction FBI file - Page 31 Ele Kendall Burnham Cooper ISSUE NO. 23 Contents SUMMER 2015

Discussion, debate and authors’ opinions: To encourage the broadest possible discussion and debate around the aims of exposing capitalism and promoting socialism, we hope our readers appreciate that not all the opinions expressed by individual authors are necessarily those of The Socialist Correspondent.

Greek lesson: the EU is bad Ukraine: escalating into for the people full-scale war? ALEX DAVIDSON SIMON KORNER Page 4 Page 16

UK General Election and Yemen: Saudis’ war to the aftermath regain control SIMON KORNER SCOTT M CDONALD Page 20 Page 6

Venezuala and Ecuador Labour’s election success under threat in London FRIEDA PARK BRIAN DURRANS Page 22 Page 9

70th anniversary of The Socialist Correspondent Dresden Inferno Conference DR. KLAUS SCHWURACK Page 12 Page 24

SNP’s fiscal figures Hardship or hope do not add up for Africa? GREG KASER PAUL SUTTON Page 26 Page 13

Arnold Mesches and his FBI file GEORGE HEARTFIELD Page 31

Pictures: Unless otherwise stated all pictures are courtesy of Commons Wikimedia. Some of these will be attributed to an individual photographer. This does not mean that these individuals agree with the opinions expressed by individual authors or The Socialist Correspondent. Further information: http://commons.wikimedia.org

2 The Socialist Correspondent Summer 2015 To contact The The Socialist Correspondent email the editor: [email protected] Socialist www.thesocialistcorrespondent.org.uk Correspondent Get Out of the EU Commentary Labour Party leadership In his article on Greece, Alex David - The Labour Party is now in a leader - son, explains that the five-month ship contest. The Blairites, in paint - negotiations between the Troika ing the General Election defeat as (European Commission, European stroying one of the world’s poorest disastrous for Labour, aim to re-take Central Bank and the International countries to maintain control over a the leadership and return to the poli - Monetary Fund) and Greece’s strategically important region. tics of right-wing New Labour. SYRIZA government were a sham. As he points out, “Yemen has been Miliband had gone some way in tak - The EU diktat has critically important strategically since ing Labour away from that position come to pass and the British Empire developed the port but the Blairites are determined to Greece is now in a of Aden as a staging post to India…” stop that continuing. worse position. The It is important now to the Ameri - Scott McDonald argues in his arti - lessons for Britain cans, whose “policy is dictated by its cle, “General Election and the After - and elsewhere are need to control both the strategic math”, that although it was a defeat clear: Get Out of the chokepoint and the oil reserves.” for Labour, it was not as disastrous as EU. the Tories and the Blairites would like The EU cannot be UK General Election to make out. negotiated with from Anyone who thought that it didn’t As he points out it suits both the inside as the Greeks matter who won the British General Tories and the Blairite agendas, “It have learned. Acces - Election because the Labour Party was suits the Tories as it suggests invinci - sion to the EU has as bad as the Tory Party should al - bility and aims to dishearten Labour The European been disastrous for ready have changed their view or they activists and supporters. From the Central Bank the former Eastern soon will. Blairite standpoint, it makes sense … in Frankfurt. European socialist The Tory government, now with a blaming Miliband and left policies countries as well as slim but workable overall majority, has and creates the platform for the re- for Portugal, Ireland, Greece and started its next five-year term of office launch of their right-wing New Spain, whose people have paid for setting out a legislative programme, Labour agenda.” their banks to be bailed-out. which will extend and deepen austerity. Brian Durrans in his piece analy- Although the main parties in Proposed legislation includes that of sing the results in London shows that Britain, from the Tories to the SNP, making it even more difficult for trade Labour did very well, in fact better will campaign for a YES vote, mil - unions to take industrial action when than in previous elections when Blair lions will not be convinced because of workers’ rights and conditions are fur - and Brown were the leaders. their experience and the knowledge of ther attacked; the capping of welfare In his in-depth analysis of the Lon - what has happened in Greece. benefits; the introduction of the ‘right don results he shows that Black and Germany played the leading role in to buy’ for housing association tenants Ethnic Minority (BME) voters are dealing with Greece and is extending thus taking more homes out of social more likely to vote in accordance its hegemony over the EU and this is housing for future generations; and with their class position and in Lon - exposing inter-imperialist rivalries. much more. don there is a greater proportion of BME voters. Ukraine Alice In Wonderland He draws the In his article on Ukraine, Simon The Queen’s Speech at the opening of conclusion that Korner notes that, “Germany has Parliament began, “My government “if the key lesson opted for the EU accession deal, will legislate in the interests of everyone is that Labour rather than military force as a means in our country. It will adopt a one na - can do best of ruling Ukraine - a model which tion approach, helping working people when people has served it well in dominating other get on, supporting aspiration, giving vote according to east European countries.” new opportunities to the most disad - their class inter - On the other hand, there are those, vantaged…” Britain’s monarch, the Jeremy Corbyn ests, then the particularly in the US, who would like most privileged person, parroting party will do even better when it de - “to advance NATO’s military pres - words penned for her by the privileged fends and advances those interests in ence up to Russia’s border.” and rich people’s Conservative party the principled and vigorous way its about helping ‘working people’ ... it’s founders intended. Permanent War the language of ‘Alice in Wonderland’. And as austerity affects more and War is now a constant for millions of However, the words will not camou - more people, Labour can win over people in many parts of the world, flage the consequences. This is a pro - voters from other parties to the extent not least the devastated Middle East: gramme of even greater attacks on the that it inspires existing supporters.” think of Iraq, Libya, Syria, Palestine. trade unions, the welfare state, the un - You won’t hear much from Liz The situation in Yemen is analysed employed, the sick, elderly and dis - Kendall, Andy Burnham or Yvette by Simon Korner in which he argues abled, indeed all working people than Cooper about class interests but you that the US-backed Saudi war is de - we have seen hitherto. may well do so from Jeremy Corbyn.

Summer 2015 The Socialist Correspondent 3 Greek lesson: EU is bad for the people Greek lesson: EU is bad for the people

The situation now faced by Greece demonstrates with on which Greece finds itself, all the data great clarity that the European Union (EU) is undemocratic, on state-owned enterprises. So we spent a lot of time trying to provide them with unreformable and a major enforcer of failed neo-liberal it and answering questionnaires and hav - capitalist policies. ing countless meetings.” “So that would be the first phase. The By ALEX DAVIDSON second phase was they’d ask us what we intended to do on VAT. They would The Greek government has now signed meantime the Eurogroup had taken steps then reject our proposal but wouldn’t up to a Third Memorandum with the to protect its banks even if the Greek come up with a proposal of their own. Troika (European Commission, Euro - banks defaulted. “And, then before we would get a pean Central Bank and the International Greece has been given no debt relief, chance to agree on VAT, they would Monetary Fund), which puts the coun - and in borrowing more money and shift to another issue, like privatisation. try into an even worse situation than it therefore paying more interest, the debt They would ask what we want to do already was. is destined to increase. about privatisation: we put something Days after the Greek people voted forward, they would reject it. ‘NO’ in their referendum the Greek Sham negotiations “Then they’d move onto another government agreed to even greater aus - The five months of negotiation were a topic, like pensions, from there to prod - terity and a further diminution of the sham. As early as February 2014, Greek uct markets, from there to labour rela - rights of the Greek people. The new Finance Minister, Yanis Varoufakis tions…it was like a cat chasing its own deal was even more punitive than that accused the ‘creditor’ governments of a tail.” (1) earlier on offer. lack of flexibility in the negotiations. The appalling treatment of the Greeks After his resignation on the evening (6 Harsh conditions is a big lesson for the people of Britain July) of the referendum result, he went When five years previously the Greek as we approach an In-Out EU referen - further and labelled the negotiations ‘a crisis began and the EU stepped in, it dum. The EU cannot be negotiated set-up’. was not the kind of help one would have with from inside as the Greeks have He said “the other side insisted on a wanted. Joseph Stigletz, formerly senior learned. The EU structures are unde - ‘comprehensive agreement’, which Vice-President and Chief Economist of mocratic and dictatorial and increasingly meant they wanted to talk about every - the World Bank, and Martin Guzman Germany dominates this capitalist club. thing. My interpretation is that when you wrote, “The initial proposals had Ger - Accession to the EU has been disas - want to talk about everything, you don’t many and other ‘rescuers’ actually mak - trous for the former Eastern European want to talk about anything.” ing a profit out of Greece’s distress, socialist countries as well as for the He suggested that Greece’s creditors charging a far higher interest rate than PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and had a strategy to keep his government their cost of capital. Worse they imposed Spain), whose people have paid for their busy and hopeful of a compromise, but conditions on Greece - changes in its banks to be bailed-out. in reality they were slowly suffering and macro- and micro-policies – that would Although the main parties in Britain, eventually desperate. have to be made in return for the (bail- from the Tories to the SNP, will cam - Varoufakis added, “They would say out[Ed]) money. (2) paign for a YES vote, millions of people we need all your data on the fiscal path “Such conditionality was a standard will not be convinced because of part of the lending practices of the their experience and the knowledge IMF and World Bank … There was of what has happened in Greece. an element of neo-colonialism: the From the election of the Syriza old White Europeans once again government through to the Greek telling their former colonies what to referendum, the Eurogroup never do. ” (2) wavered from its position that the The IMF and World Bank’s austerity programme agreed to ‘structural adjustment’ programmes by previous Greek governments in Zimbabwe and Argentina are must be adhered to. Dr. Wolfgang worth recalling in this regard, with Schauble, Germany’s Finance Min - disastrous consequences for the ister and the architect of the deals peoples of those countries. Greece signed in 2010 and 2012, These years of blackmailing insisted on this throughout. Greece and demanding ever more The Eurozone pre-emptively dis - austerity has led to a catastrophic missed the referendum and in the Wolfgang Schauble Yanis Varoufakis economic depression with around

4 The Socialist Correspondent Summer 2015 Greek lesson: EU is bad for the people

30% unemployment (more than 50% He added that he could not see why youth unemployment), slashed salaries the Germans would feel better about and pensions, huge cuts in the public bailing out Spain or Portugal than they sector and vast inequality between the would Greece. rich and poor. The economy has been In the book Geithner also once again reduced by 25%. highlights the disagreement between the Those saved by the bail-outs were not Americans and Europeans on how the the people of Greece but German and debt crisis should have been handled at French banks. its outset in 2010. This latest Memorandum will enlarge While European lenders remained Greek debt and make a bad situation for doggedly committed to austerity Geith - the Greek people even worse. The pro - ner writes he felt that imposing aggres - visions of the new deal include: sive austerity too soon in Greece would n An additional increase of the VAT be counterproductive as it would depress rates, transferring packaged food and the economy and tax revenue, ultimately other items of mass popular consump - increasing the deficit. tion to the highest rate of 23%, the abo - lition of tax exemptions for farmers, a German hegemony significant increase in VAT for the is - The United States is wary about Ger - lands. man hegemony over Europe; so besides n Maintenance of the anti-social-secu - the differences over how to deal with rity measures in their entirety which re - Greece there are other differences in - duce pensions, increase the retirement The European Central Bank cluding over Ukraine. age, exempt employers from social-secu - headquarters, Frankfurt, Germany The negotiations between Germany, rity contributions France and Russia, which led to the n The introduction of new measures Minsk Agreement over Ukraine, ex - that abolish the remaining early retire - there is divergence from the fiscal goals. cluded Britain and the United States. ments, establishing a single retirement The United States and NATO con - age of 67, abolition of the benefits for Inter-Imperialist rivalries in Europe tinue to gear up for war while Germany pensioners with very low pensions, in - There have been differences between the would prefer to integrate Ukraine into crease in workers’ social-security contri - organisations of the Troika and between the EU and control it through that butions, merging of the social-security the positions of the United States and mechanism. funds with a race to the bottom in terms Germany. These reflect the differing ap - Membership of the EU has been bad of rights. proaches to handling the financial crisis for many countries including Greece and n The freezing of collective agree - and also inter-imperialist rivalries. bad for all workers throughout Europe. ments, the maintenance of reduced There is no disagreement among the It has been good for capital but not for wages and also additional new anti- capitalist countries that it is the working labour. worker measures in the name of adapta - people who should pay to save the The referendum debate in Britain will tion to the EU directives for the banks. The differences are over tactics as not be framed in this way by the capital - expansion of individual contracts be - to how the situation should be handled. ist media nor by the main political par - tween workers and employers, the rein - Timothy Geithner, US Treasury Sec - ties but, then, all of them are defenders forcement of part-time and temporary retary (2009-2013), met with Wolfgang of capitalism. work, flexible labour relations. Schauble on the German island of Sylt It is worth recalling that on a British n Maintenance of the privatisations in the North Sea in July 2012, and in his exit from the EU, Wolfgang Schauble ar - that have taken place and the promotion book ‘Stress Test’ published at the end of gued in 2014 that Britain’s EU member - of new ones, in the ports, 14 regional air - 2014, revealed that the German Finance ship was particularly important to ports, the railways, the company that Minister had presented him with a plan Germany as both countries share a mar - manages natural gas. to kick Greece out of the Eurozone. (3) ket-oriented reform approach on many (4) n The creation of a mechanism for This, according to the German economic and regulatory questions. mortgaging and selling public property Finance Minister, would allow Germany What that means is that weaker capi - in order to raise 50 billion Euros to repay to provide the financial support neces - talist countries would, like Greece, have the loans. The suggested mechanism for sary to the Eurozone as the German to abide by EU diktat, privatisation selling off Greek public assets, according people would no longer perceive the as - would be endemic and workers through - to Wolfgang Schauble, is that they “shall sistance as a “bailout of the corrupt and out Europe would have their rights and be transferred to an existing external or profligate Greeks.” conditions further reduced whilst capi - independent fund like the Institute for Furthermore, according to Schauble’s talism reigns supreme. Growth in Luxembourg.” The Institute logic, a Greek exit would scare the rest FOOTNOTES for Growth was jointly established in of Europe enough for them to commit 2013 by a previous Greek government to providing sufficient financial assis - 1. Yanis Varoufakis interview with New and KFW, the German Development tance in order to prevent the system Statesman , 13 July 2015. Bank. Schauble is the Chairman of the from collapsing. 2. Stiglitz Joseph E and Guzman, Mar - Board of KFW. Geithner called the idea ‘frightening’, tin, “Argentina shows Greece there , n The creation of primary surpluses of writing that he felt that it would create a may be life after default” The World 1% for 2015, 2% for 2016, 3% for 2017, crisis of confidence that would be diffi - Post , 1 July 2015. 3.5% for 2018, and the implementation cult to contain regardless of how much 3. Geithner, Timothy, “Stress Test” , of a mechanism to automatically cut money the Europeans subsequently 2014. salaries, pensions, social spending if pledged to shore up bankrupt states. 4. Financial Times , 30 June 2014.

Summer 2015 The Socialist Correspondent 5 UK General Election and the aftermath UK General Election and the aftermath

The Blairite wing of the Labour Party and the Tories paint jority. Tallying up the switched votes the picture that the General Election was disastrous for needed for Labour to get these seven seats, we end up with a total of 901 peo - Labour. The media repeat this assertion ad nauseam. ple. That’s how few people gave the To - ries an overall majority in the House of By SCOTT M cDONALD Commons. The Tory strategy and tac - tics worked in the key contests. But it is not true. The facts do not sup - fading challenge of UKIP to the Tories, port their argument. the SNP’s sweeping gains in Scotland, Tory Strategy However, this description of a disas - the disenchantment of many working- Lynton Crosby, the Australian political trous defeat for Labour fits both the class voters, the pro-Tory media as well campaign strategist, guided John Blairite and Tory agendas. as the Tories’ strategy and tactics Howard and the Liberal Party (ie the It suits the Tories as it suggests invin - account for Labour’s defeat. But to Australian Tory Party) to four election cibility and aims to dishearten Labour describe it as disastrous is to deny the wins in Australia and had run Boris activists and supporters. facts. Johnson’s two successful London May - From the Blairites’ standpoint, it oral campaigns. In January 2012 he was makes sense to describe the result as dis - Liberal Democrat disaster appointed to head the Tories election astrous, blaming Miliband and left poli - The Liberal Democrats collapsed, los - strategy for the 2015 General Election. cies, and creates the platform for the ing a total of 49 seats, 27 to the Tories, All parties understand that there is an re-launch of their right-wing New 12 to Labour and 10 to the SNP. This air war (TV, radio, social media) and a Labour agenda. leaves the Liberal Democrats with just 8 ground war (knocking on doors, phone This description also suits the SNP, seats in Parliament. (See Table 1) calls, leafletting). which has always had the aim of de - Their share of the vote Mark Wallace, writing in the Conser - stroying Labour. Of course the election plunged from 23% in the 2010 vative Home website said, “The was disastrous for Labour in Scotland, election to 7.9% in 2015. Conservative air war was visible but not in England nor Wales. The SNP UKIP, which had been chal - for anyone to follow – the as - would like to convince everyone that lenging the Tories, particularly in sault on Labour’s fiscal credi - there is no way back for Labour not just the south of England, stopped bility, the image of a weak Ed in Scotland but in the rest of the UK. getting the same positive media Miliband being propped up by By making the argument that there attention as the election ap - a strong SNP, the starkly-drawn will be a Tory government forever in the proached. UKIP did secure a dividing lines on such as wel - UK, the SNP believe this will convince worrying 3.8 million votes, but fare reform and the deficit. more people in Scotland that independ - won only one seat. Their share of These headline messages cer - ence is the only answer. the vote increased to 12.4% from tainly played a large part in de - The SNP know that a Tory govern - 3.1% in the 2010 election. Lynton Crosby livering the Conservative ment in Whitehall, and creating the im - majority.” (1) pression that there is no way back for How the Tories won an overall However, the Tory ground Labour, will make it easier for them to majority war was deliberately played under the achieve their aim of independence. A meagre 901 voters spread over 7 con - radar. So, it is in all their interests - the To - stituencies was what gave the Tories an Wallace continued,“At the Conserva - ries, right-wing Labour and the SNP - overall majority (see table 2). tive conference in Birmingham in 2012, to describe the election result as disas - In the constituencies shown in Table Stephen Gilbert, the Prime Minister’s trous for Labour. 2, you only need half of those people to Political Secretary, outlined the election But it is not true. The facts do not switch from Conservative to Labour for strategy… “Speaking in a closed session support their argument. the Tories to lose their majority in gov - to senior activists, Gilbert set out the The Tories won 8 seats from Labour ernment. In Gower for instance if 14 programme for the Tory Stealth Win but Labour won 11 seats from the people who voted for the Tories had that was painstakingly effected beneath Tories. (See Table 1) Labour’s share of voted for Labour instead, Gower would the radar of Labour, the media – and in - the vote increased from the 2010 Gen - have become a Labour seat. Only 14 deed pollsters.” (1) eral Election, from 29% to 30.4%, even people! It was known as the 40/40 strategy in with Labour shedding many votes in If that had happened in all of these which the campaign would focus on de - Scotland. Labour’s vote was up by seven constituencies, the Tories still fending 40 Conservative-held seats and 740,000 from the previous election in would have won more seats than any attacking 40 others held by Labour and 2010. other party but, at 324 seats, they the Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrat collapse, the wouldn’t have managed an outright ma - Wallace added, “Having picked the

6 The Socialist Correspondent Summer 2015 UK General Election and the aftermath

alised and, in particular, that Lib - TABLE 1 - Tory Gains and Losses eral Democrat supporters were Tory Gains: 35 more amenable to voting Tory than others realised. From Liberal Democrats: 27 From Labour: 8 “This laid the foundations for the ground war: without it, the ground 1. Bath 28. Bolton West campaigning, phone calls 2. Berwick 29. Derby North and leaflets to come would have 3. Brecon & Radnorshire (Powys, Wales) been far less effective. If the con - 30. Gower (West Glamorgan, Wales) cept of the 40/40 strategy was a 4. Cheadle 31. Morley & Outwood (W Yorks) precision strike to win a majority, 5. Cheltenham (Gloucester) Crosby’s research (later bolstered 32. Plymouth Moor View by Jim Messina’s (2) data) was aimed 6. Chippenham 33. Southampton Itchen at delivering a precision strike to 7. Colchester (Essex) win a majority of votes in each seat. 34. Telford “The importance of getting the 8. Eastbourne 35. Vale of Clwyd research right cannot be overstated, 9. Eastleigh (Hampshire) either in terms of the eventual elec - 10. Hazel Grove (Greater Manchester) tion result, or the subsequent media confusion. 11. Kingston & Surbiton Tory Losses: 12 “The majority would be won by 12. Lewes (East Sussex) campaigns targeted directly at a rel - To Labour: 11 atively small number of groups, 13. Mid Dorset & North Poole each composed of a relatively small 14. North Cornwall 1. Brentford (London) number of people in a relatively 2. City of Chester small number of seats. 15. North Devon “That level of detail was hard for 16. Portsmouth South 3. Dewsbury (West Yorks) those working at a national level to 17. Solihull 4. Ealing Central & Acton (London) see, and Crosby’s own insistence that “we don’t talk about process” 18. Somerton & Frome (Somerset) 5. Enfield North (London) combined with it to make crucial 19. St Austell & Newquay (Cornwall) 6. Hornsey & Wood Green (London) parts of the campaign almost invis - ible. 20. St Ives (Devon) 7. Hove (East Sussex) “The Conservative approach 21. Sutton & Cheam 8. Ilford North was, in effect, a rather secret war, carried out below the radar of the 22. Taunton Dean (Somerset) 9. Lancaster watching national media, which had 23. Thornbury & Yate (Avon) 10. Wirral West (Merseyside) no means of assessing the quality of 24. Torbay (Devon) the information gathered in the 11. Wolverhampton South West databases, or all the ways in which 25. Twickenham (1) To UKIP: 1 it was duly exploited.” 26. Wells (Somerset) The Tories 40/40 strategy was ex - 12. Clacton (Essex) ecuted using Team 2015, who were 27. Yeovil (Somerset) activists moved around to the target seats. They were encouraged by as - seats and selected the candidates, the stituency: how had they voted in the sistance with transport, special days and next step was to understand key voters past, why had they done so, what might free curries and enabled with a very clear in each constituency. Part of Lynton make them stick with the blues or switch, picture of voter’s likes/dislikes provided Crosby’s role was to lead on the polling and so on. He believed there were more by the database created by Crosby and and analysis of voters in each target con - potential swing voters than people re - his team. The underground ground war was complemented by the very visible air TABLE 2 - Seven Most Marginal Tory Seats by Majority war, of which the use of nationalism was Constituency Majority Gain/Hold particularly effective in the targeted seats. Gower 27 Tory gain from Labour The Nationalist card Derby North 41 Tory gain from Labour The Tories played the “English Votes for English Laws” (EVEL) card from the Croydon Central 165 Tory hold morning when David Cameron com - Vale of Clwyd 237 Tory gain from Labour mented on the result of the Scottish In - dependence Referendum through to the Bury North 378 Tory hold final days of the General Election Morley & Outwood 422 Tory gain from Labour campaign. The Tories used the SNP to portray a situation in which, if Labour Plymouth Sutton won, Miliband would be in the pocket of & Devonport 523 Tory hold Salmond. It was a very effective tactic devised by Tory campaign strategist

Summer 2015 The Socialist Correspondent 7 UK General Election and the aftermath

Lynton Crosby. ship in the ‘Better Together’ referendum “aspirational” voters. “Aspirational” is “With typical shrewdness and ruthless - campaign alongside the Tories to tar right-wing shorthand for the “middle ness, Crosby identified the surge of Scot - them with the toxic Tory brush. SNP class”. tish nationalism in recent years as a activists took to name-calling Labour, the The big losses for Labour since the wedge that could be used against Labour, “Red Tories”. 1997 election have been working class both in Scotland and in England.” (Andy n The SNP used anti-austerity rheto - voters. An estimated 4 million ‘Labour Beckett, Guardian , 8 May 2015) ric as their main message throughout the identifiers’ did not vote at the 2010 elec - “The Tory emphasis on the threat of a election campaign, positioning them - tion.This loss of mainly working-class SNP-Labour coalition helped claw back selves to the left of Labour. This mes - voters has been growing for more than a voters from the Lib Dems and Ukip – sage was reinforced by pointing to decade. placing the Conservatives on course to Labour’s partnership with the Tories in claiming today’s majority” (Corey Charl - the Better Together campaign. Who caused the 2007-08 crash? ton, Mail online, 8 May 2015) The SNP has always been clear that Part of the Blairite argument is that Labour were squeezed by English and the main obstacle to Scottish independ - Labour is not trusted on the economy. Scottish nationalism. When pushed by ence is the Labour Party. They targeted The Tory narrative is that it was Labour the SNP to form an alliance, Miliband traditional Labour voters and argued that which caused the deficit and the crash had no choice but to reject their phoney they would “lock Cameron out of of 2007-08. overtures. Downing St.” if Labour went into The Tories spent five years hammer - If he had accepted, it would have been alliance with them. ing away at this message. When as good as saying “vote SNP not Labour Their tactics were aimed at disillu - Miliband did offer a different explana - in Scotland” and it would have pushed sioned Labour voters who didn’t want a tion during one of the television debates frightened voters in the south of England Tory government but had to be con - he was shouted down. The narrative even further into the Tories’ hands. vinced that voting SNP would not put that it was Labour to blame and not the So, Miliband had no choice but to re - the Tories back into government. bankers had been allowed to become the ject any formal or informal alliance with Many hitherto traditional Labour vot - dominant explanation. the SNP. On this point, if there is to be ers, fed up with Labour, accepted the ar - The Blairite strategy is to create the any criticism to be made of Miliband, it gument and, in many cases, didn’t platform for the return of new New is that he should have made the position necessarily regard a vote for the SNP as Labour. Three of the four Labour lead - clearer earlier. a vote against Labour. ership candidates follow this agenda in The SNP argued that a vote for them varying degrees. On a scale of 1-10 with in Scotland was not a vote against Blairite pre-planned attack 10 being their ideal replacement for Labour nor a vote for the Tories. In The Blairites, having lost the leadership Tony Blair, then Liz Kendall scores 10. England and Wales they called on people of the Labour Party with the defeat of Yvette Cooper and Andy Burnham are to vote Green or Plaid Cymru, making it Ed’s brother, David, attempted on sev - not far behind. Jeremy Corbyn is the even more clear that their “support for a eral occasions to get rid of Ed prior to only candidate who doesn’t accept the Labour Government” was false. the election. Blairite arguments. In Scotland the SNP made huge gains, They launched a pre-planned attack When a poll showed that Corbyn may taking 40 seats from Labour and 10 the day after the election. It sought to be leading in the leadership race then it from the Liberal Democrats bringing put the blame for Labour’s defeat onto was time for Tony Blair to intervene. He their total to 56 seats, leaving Labour, Miliband and left-wing politics, invoked said that people voting in the Labour the Liberal Democrats and the Tories memories of Michael Foot and other leadership election who were going to with one seat apiece. Labour defeats and accused Miliband of vote with their heart rather than their There are a number of explanations the failure to tap into the hopes of head “needed a transplant”. for this victory of the SNP in Scotland: This was designed to remind people n Growing disenchantment and disil - Jon Trickett MP , Labour Party Deputy that, according to the Blairite philoso - lusion with Labour, especially among Chair, wrote on the web, 13 May 2015, phy, you can only win an election in working-class voters, during the “If we compare the election results for Britain if you appeal to the so-called Blair/Brown years with the war on Iraq our last election victory in 2005 with middle ground or “aspirational people” and right-wing domestic policies. the result last Thursday and analyse by by essentially adopting right-wing n The poor performance of Labour social class, a very interesting pattern policies. and its leadership in Scotland over many emerges. Here are the figures. But Labour held on to, indeed slightly years. increased their share of the middle class 2005 2010 2015 n Labour continually taking for vote, as pointed out by John Trickett granted its support. This complacency AB 28 26 27 MP. Despite the Blairites, the Tories often turned into arrogance. C1 32 28 30 and the media, Labour would do better n The SNP, having led a minority gov - to look to the disenchanted, austerity-hit ernment for several years, won a major - C2 40 29 30 millions of working people who could be ity in the last Scottish election and has DE 48 40 37 inspired to fight for a better life. now governed Scotland for seven years. (House of Commons Library figures) FOOTNOTES n Although the Referendum was a vic - “It is possible here to see that the tory for the NO vote, the YES campaign 1. http://www.conservativehome. proportions of AB and C1 voters who com/thetorydiary/2015/06/the-com - refused to accept the result and contin - voted Labour in the last three elections ued their campaign. The momentum puters-that-crashed-and-the-campaign- has held steady. Indeed Ed Miliband’s that-didnt-the-story-of-the-tory-stealth-o they had built up during the Referendum leadership led to a mild recovery of campaign continued in the very short peration-that-outwitted-labour.html these voters between 2010 and 2015, 2. Jim Messina was in Barak Obama’s run up to the General Election. (as it did among the C2 group.)” n The SNP used Labour’s member - campaign team.

8 The Socialist Correspondent Summer 2015 Labour’s election success in London Labour’s election success in London

David Cameron’s victory in the UK’s General Election on But the very idea of addressing this 7 May 2015 was achieved despite the Conservative/Liberal- issue was ignored in the 2013 Fabian Society document which did much to Democrat Coalition’s widely unpopular policies of austerity shape the Labour Party’s 2015 election at home and militarism abroad. strategy. (2) Claiming credit for its stabilising in - By BRIAN DURRANS tervention, however, would have given Labour the chance to convert it into It was also won against a personable handling of the economy? popular support for an alternative to the Labour leader whose policies repre - The 2008 crisis (which was and neoliberal mayhem which caused the sented the first significant shift from a remains not just a crisis of banks or crisis in the first place. Blairite agenda in over a decade. finance but of capitalism itself) was con - Practical lessons for the future will Ever since the first results were tained only by state intervention through emerge from a balanced assessment of declared, two stories dominated the Gordon Brown’s Labour government. Labour’s strategy and performance: media: that forecasters failed to predict The idea that ‘Labour can’t be trusted n what the policies were, how coher - the outcome even as late as the exit polls, with the economy’ has twice proved an ently they fitted together and how they and that it was a disaster for Labour, election-winner for the Conservatives, in were promoted; which Ed Miliband’s prompt resignation 2010 and, as just seen, in 2015. n how the election campaign was did nothing to refute. But that wouldn’t have been possible if designed and handled, including how Labour commentators David Blunkett the slogan hadn’t also been a diversion effectively vested interests and their and Alastair Campbell, interviewed on from the fact that saving the banks media and parties were countered locally, TV as the disappointing results were demolished the dogma of the ‘free’ mar - regionally and nationally. coming in, identified in perhaps un - ket independent of the (capitalist) state. Labour supporters are already asking guarded comments that the main prob - Even right-wing Labour figures like what went wrong in 2015 and how past lem had been the party’s failure, some Blunkett and Campbell know this but mistakes can be avoided in future. seven years before, to nail the lie that, can’t admit that the reason why Labour This has to address strategy as well as because it was in government at the was unable to defend itself is because its tactics, but if there’s any complacency time, it was somehow responsible for the Blairite copying of Tory austerity poli - about Labour’s performance the greater 2008 ‘banking crisis’. (1) cies looked like a confession of guilt. risk is despair. This echoed the pre-election views of Only a clear, determined and pro - Although Labour also did well in some others not confined to Labour’s own longed campaign to combat this other places, its remarkably good per - ranks or the wider left (such as former promptly-planted caricature of Labour formance in London should counter the Bank of England Chairman Sir Mervyn could have significantly improved the pessimists. King) and is much more credible than party’s chances in 2010. that Labour lost because of some lurch Even if the problem had been clearly Labour in London to the left. identified in preparing to fight the 2015 Labour’s electoral performance can be The obvious question is why in the election, the original failure to nip it in usefully compared between national and following seven years Labour did so lit - the bud would probably have left too London results over the last three tle to put the record straight on its much ground to make up. general elections (Table 1). (3)

TABLE 1 - Labour’s London Performance Election 2005 (4) 2010 (5) 2015 Labour leader Tony Blair Gordon Brown Ed Miliband Scale National London National London National London Labour votes 9.6m 1.1m 8.6m 1.3m 9.3m 1.5m Total electorate 44.2m 5.0m 45.6m 5.3m 46.4m 5.4 % voter turnout (6) 61.4 57.8 65.1 64.5 66.1 65.5 Labour’s % of votes cast 35.2 38.9 29.0 36.6 30.4 43.7 Labour’s seats won/fought 355/646 44/74 258/650 38/73 232/650 45/73

Summer 2015 The Socialist Correspondent 9 Labour’s election success in London

TABLE 2 - Shift of Votes and Seats in London Party % Vote 2015 % Vote 2010 Change Seats 2015 Seats 2010 Change Con 34.9 34.5 +0.4 27 28 -1 Lab 43.8 (8) 36.6 +7.2 45 38 +7 LD 7.7 22.1 -14.4 17-6 UKIP 8.1 1.7 +6.4 000 Green 4.7 1.6 +3.1 000

Under Ed Miliband, Labour in Lon - nearly 125,000 between 2010 and 2015, new departure – when asked not about don surpassed not just the 2010 election nor the slightly higher turnout, played the 2005 election but about their past but even that of 2005 in its share of the out between the parties, nor to what ex - turnout at all the general elections in vote and the number of seats gained and tent the two main parties lost or gained which they have been eligible to vote, the retained. support to and from each other. normal pattern of steadily declining This outcome depended on winning But if it’s still hard to imagine nearly as propensity to vote by social class re - nearly six times as many more votes, many Lib Dem votes going to UKIP as asserts itself.” (9) compared with 2010, than could be ex - to Labour and only half as many of On this evidence, BME voters regard - plained by Labour’s expected share of those Lib Dems who switched to UKIP less of their class vote in a more consis - around 40% of new votes from the voting Green instead, this would be to tently class-conscious way than the growth of the London electorate, and overlook the unstable opportunism of electorate as a whole, or at least did so in well over twice as many than even if it Lib Dem politics in (and before and 2005. had won the support of all new London since) 2010. The Ipsos Mori analysis was based on voters. Plainly, too, tactical voting will have a nationwide sample rather than a Lon - This outcome is all the more remark - distorted the outcome more in marginal don one, but one of the key findings of able given that, at national level, than in safe seats, and more in some a more recent report, published in Janu - Labour’s actual (and media-enhanced) marginals than in others. But overall, ary 2015 (four months before the elec - shortcomings and disadvantages were at and with all these caveats, the main (net) tion) by the Migrant Rights Network least as evident in London as elsewhere. beneficiary of Lib Dem decline was un - and which has been called the first com - For possible clues to Labour’s good doubtedly Labour. prehensive analysis of the migrant vote, performance in London I turn first to As has mostly happened nationally, so (10) is that “the migrant electorate is heav - the electoral collapse of the Lib Dems also in London, electoral politics has ily concentrated in London – 19 of the and then to the perhaps more significant polarised in the way we might expect 20 seats with the largest migrant voter ethnic composition of the capital’s work - given the onslaught on the social wage shares are in Greater London”. ing class. as capitalism tries to solve its problems at Unsurprisingly, it also notes (p. 3) that Since neither factor was unique to the the expense of the working class. across the UK, “historical voting pat - capital city, however, Labour’s achieve - For the moment, then, the collapse of terns suggest that migrant voters are ment certainly reflects other issues that the Lib Dem vote, even if the party can’t likely to prefer parties that they view as concern Londoners more than most, of yet be written off, helps clarify the main positive about race equality and immi - which the most important is probably options. gration issues and that, “research on ear - housing and the shortage of affordable lier migrant communities suggest that rented accommodation. BME and class perceptions about the parties’ attitudes The impact of so-called Black and towards migrants and minorities, and the Lib Dems Minority Ethnic (BME) voting is a more discrimination they face in British soci - Is there any evidence that the 2010 Lib- stable and predictable reconfiguring of ety, can have a lasting impact on migrant Dem vote was recycled more to Labour class-based allegiance to Labour and is political loyalties.” than to the Conservatives in 2015, and especially marked in London. especially in London? Two Ipsos Mori pollsters wrote in Inspiration If so, could this have made the differ - 2005 about class and BME voting in that If we combine these demographic and ence and, if it did, how might this be ex - year’s election. voting-habit findings with what the plained? Acknowledging the significance of Ipsos-Mori poll suggests about the class Table 2 (7) summarises the shift of votes class on voting patterns for the electorate allegiance of the BME electorate and its and seats in London from 2010 to 2015 as a whole – in case you wondered, the numerical strength in London, Labour’s and seems to show the main directions higher your class, the more likely you’ll performance in London is much easier in which former Lib Dem support was vote Tory, and conversely for Labour – to understand. redistributed: the pollsters observe that whilst lower If the key lesson is that Labour can do The impression given in the table’s turnout among 18-34 year old BME vot - best when people vote according to their ‘Change’ column is that in London the ers may reflect greater alienation than class interests, then the party will do parties that benefited most from the col - among the White population, “less in even better when it defends and ad - lapse of the Lib Dem vote were, from line with expectations from the voting vances those interests in the principled most to least, Labour, UKIP, Green and behaviour of the rest of the population and vigorous way its founders intended. Conservative. […] was turnout by social class. While And as austerity affects more and This is slightly misleading, however, ABs were, as would be expected, the more people, Labour can win over vot - because it takes no account of how the most likely to vote, turnout among DEs ers from other parties to the extent that net growth of the London electorate, by was almost as high. This appears to be a it inspires its existing supporters.

10 The Socialist Correspondent Summer 2015 Labour’s election success in London

FOOTNOTES Top 40 of (all cited web-pages were accessed in mid-July 2015) London’s Population 1. see sociologist Michael Rustin’s guest blog: http://blog.lwbooks.co.uk/?p=254. 2011 UK Census 2. http://www.fabians.org.uk/wp- content/uploads/2013/09/LaboursNextMajority_web.pdf. This approach is Country of Birth Pop. psephological, not in the dictionary sense of psephology as the scientific 1. UK 5,175,677 analysis of elections but in the conventional sense of simply measuring how 2. India 262,247 samples of people vote or what they say. There’s money in dressing up such guesswork as politically unbiased, but to give a sense of how political this 3. Poland 158,300 kind of ‘non-politics’ really is, the report for example dismisses arguments 4. Ireland 129,807 within Labour as giving the party only a negative reputation (p.22) rather than 5. Nigeria 114,718 a potential basis for winning elections. The report’s author, then-Fabian Soci - 6. Pakistan 112,457 ety deputy director Marcus Roberts, left the organisation shortly before the 2015 election; he was field director of Ed Miliband’s leadership campaign but 7. Bangladesh 109,948 later resigned and criticised the leader for failing to follow his (Fabian) strat - 8. Jamaica 87,467 egy: see http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/06/without-change- 9. Sri Lanka 84,542 labour-choosing-lose. As of mid-July 2015 Roberts is managing Sadiq Khan’s 10. France 66,654 campaign to be the official Labour candidate for London’s Mayoral election. His apparently reasonable post-general election view, that ‘Labour must seek 11. Somalia 65,333 to persuade, not just mobilise’ - http://www.theguardian.com/poli - 12. Kenya 64,212 tics/2015/may/11/inside-the-campaigns-labour-must-seek-to-persuade-not- 13. United States 63,920 just-mobilise - seems at first glance to reverse his own psephological strategy which helped deprive Labour of the victory it deserved. But in his new verdict, 14. Ghana 62,896 as in his earlier advice, the missing element is any concrete idea of what the 15. Italy 62,050 persuading will actually be about, so Roberts is at least consistently vacuous. 16. Turkey 59,596 3. A few boundary changes between constituencies during this period, as well 17. South Africa 57,765 as other variables like the identities of other candidates/parties, should of course be factored into a full analysis but are ignored for reasons of space 18. Germany 55,476 and because they don’t much affect Labour’s overall performance. 19. Australia 53,959 4. The figures for 2005 are from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_King - 20. Romania 44,848 dom_general_election,_2005#Polling and 21. Philippines 44,199 http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/1678 91/UK-Parliament-elections-2005-Electoral-data-Report.pdf; 22. Cyprus 43,428 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2005_(Lon - 23. Portugal 41,041 don); and http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/our-work/our- 24. Lithuania 39,817 research/electoral-data. 5. The figures for 2010 and 2015 are from 25. China 39,452 http://data.london.gov.uk/blog/the-2015-election-the-numbers-behind-the-re - 26. Afghanistan 37,680 sult/, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_elec - 27. Iran 37,339 tion,_2010 ; 28. Spain 35,880 http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/our-work/our-research/electoral- data; 29. Uganda 32,136 http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/1058 30. Brazil 31,357 96/Plymouth-GE2010-report-web.pdf, http://www.bbc.com/news/elec - 31. Iraq 29,789 tion/2015/results and http://data.london.gov.uk/blog/the-2015-election-the- 32. New Zealand 28,547 numbers-behind-the-result/. 6. “The basic rule: the more affluent the area and/or the more marginal the 33. Canada 27,207 seat, the higher the turnout”: 34. Bulgaria 26,453 http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/1678 35. Hong Kong 23,779 91/UK-Parliament-elections-2005-Electoral-data-Report.pdf. 7. https://londonist.com/2015/05/labour-gains-lib-dem-losses-centre-for-lon - 36. Mauritius 21,516 don-analyses-our-new-political-landscape. 37. Kosovo 21,309 8. The previous table gives Labour’s percentage of the vote in London in 38. Zimbabwe 27,288 2015 as one decimal point lower at 43.7: perhaps a rounding-down rather 39. Malaysia 21,209 than –up. 9. 40. Japan 20,637 http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/4726 The 2011 census recorded 0/ECBMEReportFINAL2_18810-13883__E__N__S__W__.pdf [p. 8]. For this n reference I am grateful to one of its authors, Prof Roger Mortimore. that 2,998,264 people - or 10. http://www.migrantsrights.org.uk/files/publications/Migrant_Vot - 36.7% of London’s population ers_2015_paper.pdf and - were born outside of the UK. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/29/surge-in-voters-born-over - seas.

Summer 2015 The Socialist Correspondent 11 The Socialist Correspondent Conference

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12 The Socialist Correspondent Summer 2015 SNP’s fiscal figures do not add up SNP’s fiscal figures do not add u p!

On the 27th November 2014 the Smith Commission and others and have revealed funda - presented its proposals to the Scottish Parliament. mental weaknesses in the SNP approach to managing the economic and fiscal af - By PAUL SUTTON fairs of Scotland. At its heart has been the question of The Commission had been established 2. economic and social full fiscal autonomy - the demand by the following the independence referendum issues; and, SNP that the Scottish Parliament (Holy - in September to agree a package of en - 3. an increase in the financial rood) should be in control all revenues hanced powers to be devolved to the responsibilities of the Scottish raised and spent in Scotland, except for Scottish Parliament on a strict timetable. Parliament. reserved areas such as defence, foreign This envisaged the publication of Collectively the measures were de - affairs and some matters of common draft clauses for a new bill for Scottish signed to strengthen the Scottish Parlia - economic regulation which would devolution by the end of January 2015, ment and to create a powerful devolved remain with the Westminster Parliament. followed by the tabling of such a bill in assembly with important powers over The case for full fiscal autonomy was the first session of the new UK Parlia - taxation and spending. presented in the SNP’s submission to ment following the general election in In the months since the Commission the Smith Commission. May 2015. Members of the Commis - reported, these powers, and especially It argued that: “all tax revenues sion were drawn from the five largest those concerned with financing the should be retained in Scotland. The political parties in Scotland. Scottish government, have become a Scottish Parliament should have policy The measures proposed by the Smith contested issue in Scottish Commission covered three areas: politics. 1. a revised constitutional settlement They have set the SNP for Scotland; against the Labour Party

Report of the Smith Commission for further devolution of powers to the Scottish Parliament

27 November 2014

The Scottish Parliament at Holyrood, Edinburgh.

Summer 2015 The Socialist Correspondent 13 SNP’s fiscal figures do not add up

responsibility for all taxes unless there is enues raised wholly in Scotland came to figures directly but to discredit its oppo - a specific reason for a continued reser - replace the Barnett Formula (1) under nents claiming they were “constantly vation. In particular, the Scottish Par - which Scotland receives a block grant talking down Scotland’s financial abili - liament should have full autonomy for from the Westminster government to ties” ( BBC Scotland , 21 April 2015). income tax, national insurance, corpo - cover a significant proportion of its But the weaknesses of the SNP case ration tax, capital gains tax, fuel duty, spending. were increasingly being revealed. In the air passenger duty and inheritance tax.” The figures given for 2014-15 were a Scottish Parliament Nicola Sturgeon It also argued that the Scottish Parlia - deficit in Scottish government finances came under attack and in April dodged ment should be responsible for all of £12.9 billion under the estimate cal - questions as to whether the SNP would domestic expenditure, including welfare, culated by the Office for Budget Re - seek to amend the Scotland Bill in the and that it should have borrowing sponsibility (assuming all revenues Westminster Parliament to provide for powers. generated within Scotland and from immediate full fiscal autonomy as she The Conservative, Liberal Democrat North Sea oil and gas (NSOR) were as - had stated only one month earlier. and Labour parties in Scotland all pro - signed to Scotland) and £10.6 billion if Her assertive Finance Secretary, John posed varying degrees of greater fiscal using the more optimistic estimates of Swinney, also became more circumspect responsibility and further tax devolution the Scottish government which the SNP speaking of delay and significant periods to the Scottish Parliament, but all were favoured. The deficit under the Barnett of transition in reaching full fiscal au - opposed to full fiscal autonomy. Formula would be £8 billion. tonomy. The Scottish Labour Party in its sub - Fiscal Affairs Scotland stated: “What It was therefore not surprising to see mission emphasised the benefits of a this analysis illustrates is that a move - that in its General Election manifesto the “sharing union” with the rest of the UK ment away from the current Barnett SNP spoke now of a transition to ‘full “in which risks and rewards are collec - arrangement to one which relies more on fiscal responsibility’ (note the word tively pooled”. the retention of taxes generated in Scot - change) that “would take a number of The Scottish Trade Union Congress land could put the existing level of Scot - years to complete”. also opposed “full fiscal autonomy or land’s public spending at risk. ... Under It therefore proposed a dual strategy Devo Max” arguing that it presented the most recent NSOR forecasts full fis - that would seek to retain the Barnett “potential future challenges for the cal autonomy would result in Scotland Formula alongside new devolved powers maintenance of current levels of per- continuing to have a negative fiscal bal - over and above those proposed in the capita public spending in Scotland rela - ance in 2018-19 even though by then the Smith Commission. tive to the rest of the United Kingdom”. UK is projected to be in a fiscal surplus” These would include “powers over It was however prepared to see a signif - (press release, 21 October 2014). employment policy, including the mini - icant “devolution and assignment of tax - Six months later the situation had be - mum wage, welfare, business taxes, na - ation amounting to at least two-thirds of come worse. New figures from Fiscal Af - tional insurance and equality policy”. Scottish public spending (over 50% of fairs Scotland now put the deficit at They would deliver substantial addi - all spending in Scotland)”. £14.2 billion for 2015-16 (press release, tional revenue (e.g. national insurance is In the end the Smith Commission de - 18 March 2015). Although this was ex - estimated to raise £8.7 billion in Scot - livered a compromise in which eco - pected to fall to £8.2 billion by 2019-20 land and on-shore corporation tax £2.8 nomic powers were devolved across a number of areas including taxation, state Joel Barnett, Baron Barnett as he benefits in specific areas, borrowing and became, died on November 2014. the management of the Crown Estate. This gave the Scottish Parliament an As Labour’s Chief Secretary to the extra £15 billion of taxes to cover some 60% of the spending over which they Treasury between 1974-79 he now had control. devised the formula by which public Although the SNP signed up to these spending is apportioned to England, recommendations in the Smith Com - Scotland, Wales and Northern mission Report, it also predictably con - demned them on the Report’s Ireland: it became known publication as failing to deliver the en - as the “Barnett Formula”. (1) hanced powers for the Scottish Parlia - He used to joke about ment promised by the leaders of the being immortalised for Conservative, Labour and Liberal De - mocrat parties in the final days of the having “his own formula.” referendum campaign if Scotland voted ‘No’ to independence. the UK deficit as a whole by that time billion) and more control over spending. By this time however significant ques - was forecast to have moved into surplus. It is a position the SNP has reaffirmed tions had been raised on the economic Without the Barnett Formula and in the new UK parliament. As agreed in costs and benefits of full fiscal auton - under full fiscal autonomy Scotland the Smith Commission, a new Scotland omy. The submission and accompany - could only cover this size of deficit by Bill was introduced in the House of ing press release to the Smith higher Scottish taxation, or cuts in pub - Commons which would give the Scottish Commission by Fiscal Affairs Scotland, lic services, or borrowing, or all three. Parliament powers to raise 40% of taxes an independent think tank, provides a Comparable figures confirming a and decide 60% of public spending. useful summary statement. growing deficit were released around the As with the Smith Commission, the According to its analysis falling oil same time by the separate Institute for SNP again complained that it did not revenues would impact massively if full Fiscal Studies in London. True to form meet what was promised in the referen - fiscal autonomy were adopted as rev - the SNP sought not to discredit these dum and by the Smith Commission,

14 The Socialist Correspondent Summer 2015 SNP’s fiscal figures do not add up

demanding the new powers it had set thought out. The same can be said for ond referendum to be held before the forth in its election manifesto be the policy of full fiscal autonomy. end of the current parliament. included as well. It does not make economic sense. As The strategy and tactics of the SNP It therefore proposed a number of with independence the figures do not could not be clearer. A policy of ap - amendments to achieve this, all of which add up. It will put public and social serv - peasement will not work. The SNP were defeated. Among them was one to ices at risk and expose the Scottish econ - needs to be confronted and its policy of give the Scottish Parliament the right to omy to the vagaries of the international ‘independence by increments’ exposed. determine when to move toward full fis - oil market. To their credit the Scottish Labour cal autonomy. And another sought an Scotland will be far worse off if it Party in Holyrood and the Labour Party ‘Economic Agreement’ between the adopts such a policy. in Westminster have mounted a vigorous Tory government and the SNP to set out So why do the SNP promote it? Quite opposition to full fiscal autonomy, and a plan for implementation of full fiscal simply, it is seen as a policy to move in particular to the SNP practice of autonomy. closer to independence. ignoring the true costs of the policy. In his response to these amendments, Full fiscal autonomy (or even the slim - It is therefore disappointing that a David Mundell, the Tory Scottish Sec - mer version of full fiscal responsibility) Labour amendment to the Scotland Bill retary, stated that: "An amendment that simultaneously erodes and undermines that would have seen an independent kills off the Barnett formula and ends the the economic and social benefits of the commission of experts established to as - sharing of resources across the UK is Union while increasing the autonomy of sess the impact of full fiscal autonomy about as far away from sensible as one the Scottish Parliament, moving it ever on the Scottish economy and public fi - can get. It would be a full fiscal sham - closer to ‘Devo-max’ and so ever closer nances and report by the end of March bles that would cost every family in Scot - to independence, which would then be 2016 was defeated in the House of Com - land around £5,000. ... The Institute for but a short step away. mons by 376 to 192, with the SNP and Fiscal Studies has estimated that fiscal It also accords with the dominant SNP the Tories joining together to reject the autonomy would mean Scotland having approach pioneered by Alex Salmond amendment ( BBC Scotland , 30 June almost £10bn less to spend by the last and now promoted by Nicola Sturgeon 2015). year of this parliament" ( BBC Scotland , of SNP demand and Westminster con - Such a ‘marriage of convenience’ is no 15 June 2015). cession on an ever-escalating basis. surprise. There will no doubt be many The reference to the Institute for Fis - There is no way that Westminster con - more occasions on which the SNP and cal Studies figure takes into account the cessions will ever satisfy nationalist de - the Tories in Westminster make common latest figures from the Office for Budget mands short of independence and cause while pretending to be implacable responsibility which shows the impact of another referendum. foes. the crash in oil prices on Scotland’s Indeed, precisely this prospect was And it should not be forgotten that in North Sea Oil Revenues. the final analysis a Tory government in It stated: “The effects of accumulated Westminster serves SNP interests much losses reducing the effective rate paid by Angus better than a Labour opposition. companies in the North Sea, plus the re - Robertson MP, It is an indispensable basis for their payments associated with decommis - SNP Leader at claim that Scotland is different and thus sioning costs, mean that in our central Westminster needs to be independent, when the truth projection just £2 billion of receipts will who said, the is that Scotland is not that different from be raised in total between 2020-21 and the rest of the UK and the interests of 2040-41.” These are down £34.5 billion failure of the the Scottish people are the same as the from their estimates last year ( BBC Scot - Tory govern - majority south of the border. land, 11 June 2015). ment to deliver On this basis full fiscal autonomy is a Commenting on these figures the what ... was retrograde step and full fiscal integration Scottish Labour MP Ian Murray said promised in the Smith a much better option for most in Scot - they "blew a further hole in the SNP's land. The figures prove it. plans. ... The SNP were once all for full Commission were prospec - fiscal autonomy, then they weren't so tive grounds for proposing a FOOTNOTES keen and now they say they want it but second referendum ... 1. Tax paid in Scotland goes toward cov - just not for a wee while yet. ... It's an before the end of the current ering expenditure by the Scottish gov - utterly confused position” ( BBC Scot - parliament. ernment and the UK government. land , 15 June 2015). The UK government returns money to It is indeed, but it is all of one piece Scotland to pay for devolved services via with the SNP’s past approach to eco - raised by Angus Robertson MP (above), a block grant to the Scottish govern - nomic issues and with its current and the leader of the SNP at Westminster, in ment. medium term plans for Scottish inde - an interview with the Observer (28 June The size of this grant does not depend pendence. 2015). on how much revenue is raised in Scot - In the independence referendum the In it he claimed that some in the UK land but is based on its historic spend - SNP produced what can now be seen as Parliament seemed to be living in the ing in Scotland, adjusted each year wildly over-optimistic forecasts on the vain hope that the SNP and pressure for using the Barnett Formula so that future of the Scottish economy under in - independence were temporary phenom - changes in spending in Scotland and dependence. ena that would just ‘go away’. England are broadly in line. They were challenged at the time and But that would not happen. Added to Scottish government spending on their economic policy on issues such as which the failure of the Tory govern - average has been 11% higher per per - retention of the pound sterling as the ment to deliver what in his view was son than in the rest of the UK (£1600 currency for Scotland after independ - promised in the Smith Commission were per head more than in England on 2012- ence were shown to be ill advised and ill prospective grounds for proposing a sec - 13 figures).

Summer 2015 The Socialist Correspondent 15 Ukraine: escalating into full-scale war? Ukraine: escalating into full-scale wa r?

With the second Minsk ceasefire shaky, the conflict in eastern of the conflict. Ukraine could easily escalate into full-scale war. Yet despite this, Obama’s Defense Secretary, Ashton Carter, continues to By SIMON KORNER suggest supplying lethal weapons, and there has been open discussion in the The current relative lull in fighting in being prised away from Russian eco - US about deploying anti-missile systems Ukraine follows the second Minsk nomic and political influence. and the so-called “counterforce” option ceasefire in February this year, brokered With the conflict right on its doorstep, - using pre-emptive conventional by Russia, France and Germany. and a major refugee crisis of over a mil - weapons based in Europe against mili - But there has been no lasting settle - lion people displaced from the war- tary sites in Russia - as well as installing ment – fighting continues daily, with zone, it faces a renewed offensive by the nuclear missiles aimed at Russia. army artillery fire hitting civilians and western-backed Ukrainian army, per - According to the hacker group Cy - industry, as confirmed by the Vienna- haps later this year. It cannot afford to berBerkut, the US billionaire George based Organisation for Security and Co- let this succeed. Soros is actively organizing the re-arm - operation in Europe (OSCE). The preparations for a new Ukrainian ing of Ukraine and calling for training If the US pushes its proxy in Kiev army attack are well underway, with the in Romania so as to avoid accusations into a military offensive to take Donetsk, Minsk 2 ceasefire - the first ceasefire of breaching the Minsk agreement. Lugansk or Crimea, the conflict will was last September - giving Ukraine In preparation for war, a new law in flare up again on a larger scale. time to reinforce its military, with Ukraine – passed by only a narrow mar - The war – which began with the US- foreign help. gin in the Ukrainian parliament – allows orchestrated coup against elected presi - Despite Russian warnings that more nuclear weapons and foreign military dent Yanukovych, using the Maidan military support would be a ‘dangerous forces to be placed on its territory. protests as ‘democratic’ cover – aims at escalation’, both vice-president Joe Already, Kiev is receiving US completing what the Orange revolution Biden and Secretary of State John weapons via the United Arab Emirates, of 2004-5 failed to do: to advance Kerry, along with Susan Rice, Obama’s alongside other weapons supplied se - Nato’s military presence up to Russia’s security adviser, advocated direct US cretly by the US, Poland and Lithuania. border, and bring the Ukrainian econ - arms supplies prior to the Minsk agree - In addition, the US has staged the omy under western control. ment – though this was blocked by largest western military exercise ever The bigger strategic aim is to prevent held in Ukraine – on a massive training the resurgence of Russia as a rival global range in Yavoriv, western Ukraine – power by installing a compliant regime training Ukraine’s National Guard in Moscow, giving the US control over under Operation Fearless Guardian. Russia’s energy supplies and markets. Some 300 US troops, in co-ordination For its part, Russia wants to maintain with 75 British and 200 Canadian sol - a buffer-zone to protect its borders, and diers, are the numbers quoted in the preserve its market share in Ukraine as press, which suggests many more are well as access to the agriculturally and actually there. The US presence is os - industrially important country. tensibly for 6 months – the same It was Russia’s unequivocal opposi - timescale they announced when they tion to the aggression and its support for first entered Vietnam. eastern Ukraine, where local militias US Rear Admiral Brad Williams mounted an increasingly effective claimed that these exercises "provide a defence, which blocked the western Angela Merkel (pictured) and, to some reassurance” to Nato’s allies and advance. extent, Obama. demonstrate the alliance’s resolve – but But overall, Russia has lost ground. Currently, overt US support extends clearly this is a preparation for actual While it has avoided being drawn into a to supplying auxiliary systems, commu - conflict, with emphasis on sophisticated costly full-scale war, despite US provo - nications and logistics, but not strike anti-missile defence and radar to face cation, and has maintained its influence weapons such as missiles, ammunition, down Russian forces. over the Russian-speaking industrial artillery systems or aircraft, according to Other recent military exercises include eastern region – providing informal sup - Russian security analyst Alexei Arbatov naval manoeuvres in the Black Sea with port, including humanitarian aid, and of the Russian Academy of Science’s US, German, Turkish and Italian ships, a securing Crimea in a defensive move to Center for International Security. submarine exercise off Norway, and land ensure continued naval access to the Any open involvement of the USA in exercises to test Nato’s new rapid reaction Black Sea – it has nevertheless been un - supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine force, the Very High Readiness Joint Task able to prevent the majority of Ukraine would amount to a sharp escalation Force (VJTF), in the Baltic states.

16 The Socialist Correspondent Summer 2015 Ukraine: escalating into full-scale war?

In late May, a major air exercise, Arc - travention of the NATO-Russia Coun - far more sober account of the situation, tic Challenge, took place in northern Eu - cil’s founding act of 1994. Britain’s re - which contradicted Breedlove's view in rope in an already tense situation, with cently announced delay in withdrawing almost every respect. Most of the Russ - Scandinavian countries claiming Russian its last 20,000 troops from Germany ian military equipment on the border encroachments by plane and submarine only confirms this view. with Ukraine was there already, accord - and Sweden intercepting Russian planes In response, Russia has conducted ex - ing to the BND, and not, as Breedlove in international airspace apparently tensive naval exercises and deployed claimed, a sign of an invasion. heading for Sweden. Near misses, like missiles and troops in Kaliningrad and Significantly, the US was unable to one between US and Russian planes bombers in Crimea – within the same stampede Germany into arming Ukraine, over the Baltic in April, underline the geographical areas as the Nato exercises, and Merkel underlined Berlin’s opposi - dangers of an accident triggering con - prompting protests from Nato. In late tion to US hawkish policy when she flict. May, it conducted unannounced air- stated: “I am firmly convinced this con - In addition to the exercises, permanent combat-readiness exercises to coincide flict cannot be solved with military command-and-control units are being set with NATO’s Arctic manoeuvres – the means.” The US was left out of the up in most of the east European states; third major Russian exercise in 3 Minsk talks. and in Riga, north Germany and else - months. Germany’s resistance to stoking the where military equipment is being "pre- conflict further is based on fears that a positioned for deployment". Lithuania is Differences within NATO US-instigated war in Europe would bringing back conscription, while Poland The effect of the continued US strategic damage its interests and give its US rival has raised its defence budget by 18%, the push eastwards has been to sharpen dif - an advantage. biggest increase of any European coun - ferences with its NATO allies, princi - Germany has opted for the EU acces - try. pally Germany. sion deal, rather than military force, as a Altogether, the NATO expansion is Victoria (“Fuck the EU”) Nuland (see means of ruling Ukraine – a model “the biggest reinforcement of our collec - picture), a potential Secretary of State which has served it well in dominating tive defense since the end of the Cold under a future Republican White House, other east European countries – and has War,” according to Danish General and NATO chief, General Breedlove, consequently settled for a federal Knud Bartels. deliberately exaggerated the Russian mil - Ukraine with autonomy for the east and The military exercises, which will ex - itary threat during crucial talks at the leaving Crimea under Russian control. pand this autumn, amount to, in effect, Munich Security Conference on Feb 7. Not as a means of granting the Ukraine the permanent stationing of NATO This prompted the German intelli - independence, but as a more stable form troops in eastern Europe, in direct con - gence agency, the BND, to issue its own of rule.

Victoria Nuland at John Kerry’s right hand in Munich, 1 February 2014 as they instruct Ukraine’s right wing coup d’etat leaders - Poroshenko (hidden), Klitschko and Yatsenyuk - on how best to carry out US imperialist and anti-Russian aims in Ukraine.

Summer 2015 The Socialist Correspondent 17 Ukraine: escalating into full-scale war?

However, elements within the German presiding over the main trial against the and now forms the backbone of ruling class – including the president – Communist Party – a previously signifi - Ukraine’s military, following the disinte - favour a harder line, and both Social De - cant political force, having gained 13% gration of the official (conscript) army at mocrat and Green policy is to support of the vote in the last election – provoked Debaltseve. Kiev and NATO ’s war drive in Europe, his resignation, along with that of the Moreover, with Right Sector party along with the CDU defence minister, other judges in the trial. leader Dmitri Yarosh promoted to a Ursula von der Leyen, who has wel - The Ukrainian press has been another leading military position and threatening comed US troops’ presence and prom - to create a ‘parallel general staff’ based in ised Germany support for the Baltic Dnipropetrovsk – home to the oligarch states in any future war with Russia. Meanwhile, wartime fascist Igor Kolomoisky, who is providing the France, meanwhile, is against war, organisations – the UPA and funds – the danger of a fascist coup is with Hollande, Sarkozy and the Front the Organisation of Ukrainian growing. National all in basic agreement. Sarkozy, Yarosh has demanded the removal of for instance, argues that the Crimeans Nationalists (OUN), heirs to Viktor Muzhenko, the official army’s had every right to break away from Stephen Bandera, the wartime commander-in-chief, and rejected any Ukraine, just as the Kosovans broke with fascist leader – have been peace settlement in the east made by the Serbia. Sarkozy favours a neutral Poroshenko government, itself the bene - Ukraine, as a bridge between Russia and rehabilitated under a new law ficiary of a coup and unrepresentative of Europe, and outside the EU. commemorating the so-called millions in the east who boycotted the Though Nato is thus under strain, defenders of Ukraine’s elections. both France and Germany are joining in The attack on Kiev’s gay pride march the NATO rapid reaction force, along independence and rewarding in June by right-wing thugs is a sign of with Britain, Spain and Poland, and have old fascists with government things to come. Fascist demonstrations agreed for it to expand to 40,000 troops. benefits. in Kiev in early July called for full-scale This is the US’s price for the Minsk war against the People’s Republics. peace deal, a deal made possible by the For their part, the People’s Republics major military defeats suffered by the The ban on Nazi parties, of Donetsk and Lugansk are unstable en - Ukrainian army at Debaltseve and previ - brought in to try to mask the tities, representing Russian-oriented ously at Ilovaisk in late summer 2014. Ukrainian capitalism as opposed to anti-communist witch-hunt, has Kiev’s pro-western stance. Ukrainian repression not affected any actual fascist Last winter in the midst of the fight - Poroshenko’s weak position – publicly groups, as they are not literally ing, they shipped coal to the Kiev gov - humiliated after insisting his army was in ernment, along with corporation taxes – control at Debaltseve shortly before its “National Socialist” and no while the people went cold. Clearly total defeat – has forced him to bring in longer wear their Nazi insignia. these are not socialist republics, yet they emergency measures that push Ukraine nevertheless represent, along with Putin’s further towards a police state. Russia, a significant hindrance to the A police register of everyone in the target. One rightwing pundit argued re - plans of western imperialism. country has been set up, along with ever cently that “taking out several dozen tighter media censorship. With almost journalists in the conflict zone will re - Economy every Russian TV channel banned last duce the quality of the picture presented Industrial production in Ukraine has year, the ban now extends to any infor - in the Russian media and, therefore, re - now fallen 21%, in spite of the ‘aid’ from mation from Russia which is “unsanc - duce the effectiveness of their propa - the US, the EU and the IMF. tioned”. The People’s Republics in the ganda.” Its currency has fallen 69% against the east have been branded terrorist organi - Meanwhile, wartime fascist organisa - dollar, and its hryvnia currency is all but sations, making expression of support for tions – the UPA and the Organisation of worthless. GDP fell by 20% in the year them illegal. Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN), heirs to to the first quarter, according to the Fi - Communist leaders are being prose - Stephen Bandera, the wartime fascist nancial Times (May 18), while inflation cuted under the charge of promoting leader – have been rehabilitated under a is out of control, reaching 61% in April. ‘separatism’ – most Communist Party new law commemorating the so-called Estimates of Ukrainian debt go as high support comes from the east and defenders of Ukraine’s independence as $40 billion. An economy as large as Crimea; other parties besides the Com - and rewarding old fascists with govern - Poland’s at independence has shrunk to munists are under fire as well. And the ment benefits. a third of the size. previously non-lethal attacks on Com - The ban on Nazi parties, brought in Foreign creditors have no intention of munist Party leader Pyotr Symonenko to try to mask the anti-communist witch- undergoing a ‘haircut’ to save the coun - and others have now escalated to several hunt, has not affected any actual fascist try, so the government is squeezing its killings of political opponents – claimed groups, as they are not literally “National own population to pay back foreign by the fascist UPA militia, according to Socialist” and no longer wear their Nazi debts. Der Spiegel – and public calls for further insignia. To make matters more complicated, assassinations. Though the numerous fascist parties Russia owns a $3 billion bond issued in This growing campaign of terror rein - and groups currently wield little electoral 2013 (aid to Yanukovych), a debt which forces the government’s April 9 ban on influence, their power is continuing to matures later this year, but which it public discussion of communism, out - grow as they intertwine with the state could call in earlier due to a legal clause lawing all communist symbols and any machine. allowing faster repayment when debt “public denial of the criminal nature” of The National Guard – set up last year levels are high. communism. with US funding – has absorbed fascist One condition of the EU loan to Police raids on the offices of the judge battalions battle-hardened in the east, Ukraine, as part of the EU Association

18 The Socialist Correspondent Summer 2015 Ukraine: escalating into full-scale war?

agreement, is that the country’s prof - sack, as outlined by Vitaly Dudin, writ - expressed in Georgia in 2008, has been itable agriculture – it was once the bread - ing in openDemocracy . reaffirmed. As Putin said on Feb 7 this basket of the Soviet Union – is to be Public anger is growing, according to year: “There absolutely, definitely is an taken over by western corporations, fol - leftwing blogger Stephen Lendman. “In - attempt to deter our development by lowing the Polish model which provoked termittent protests have erupted since various means … Russia will never be mass protests there. late last year”, calling for the ousting of satisfied with this kind of world order.” Foreign corporations now own more prime minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Second, Germany, the increasingly than 1.6 million hectares of Ukrainian finance minister Natalya Yaresko. dominant power within Europe, has land. Monsanto and others will thus be If the protests expand, it could lead to shifted more clearly towards a foreign given a free hand in Ukraine. Once its another Maidan, this time suppressed by policy independent from the US, and GM crops have penetrated the Ukraine, state violence. this divergence looks set to grow. Monsanto will eventually use this (po - In the face of the fifth wave of con - Third, as a result of economic sanc - tentially) new EU member as a lever to scription, 95% of men drafted in Kiev tions, Russia has turned to China, strik - force open the rest of Europe to GM. have avoided it, many by leaving the ing major energy deals and important rail IMF and World Bank loans are tied to country, and 9,500 are reported to have integration and joining the new Asian In - similar deregulation as EU loans. Wage evaded military service in Lviv. frastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), cuts, sackings of government workers, which China has set up to finance its pension theft and freezes, cuts in welfare ambitious Silk Road high-speed rail net - are the usual conditions. George Soros work from China to the West. This rail is set to invest $1 billion in Ukraine, par - network will be integrated with Russia’s ticularly in the nationalized energy com - Eurasian Economic Union. pany Naftogaz, once it is broken up and Not only China, but countries such as sold off – and pressing for his investment Venezuela have also been drawn closer to be underwritten by the EU’s AAA to Russia, with the latest deal seeing the credit rating. This is typical Soros shock Russian state-owned energy company therapy, as seen in other ex-Soviet bloc Rosneft investing $14 Billion in Venezu - countries. lan oil and gas. His International Renaissance Foun - Venezuela recognizes that Russia, like dation (IRF), which funded NGOs in itself, is a victim of “unconventional Ukraine since 1989, supported the Or - war”, according to foreign minister, ange revolution and the Maidan protest, George Soros at the Delcy Rodriguez, who described Russia is also orchestrating a new Ukrainian Munich Security Confrence, 2011. as challenging “the hegemony and ex - body called the National Reform Coun - pansionism of imperialism”. cil which will allow Poroshenko to rule MF and World Bank loans are Fourth, Russia’s cancellation of the by decree, bypassing parliament so that tied to similar deregulation as South Stream gas pipeline, constantly Naftogaz can be privatized with little op - hindered by the Ukraine and EU under position. EU loans. Wage cuts, sackings US pressure, has meant a shift towards Corruption, one of the main bugbears of government workers, pen - Greece, via Turkey, for its gas exports, of the mass of Maidan protestors, is rife, sion theft and freezes, cuts in forcing the EU to finance its own new with the oligarchy more firmly in place welfare are the usual condi - pipelines if it wants Russian gas. than ever. Ukraine is the 142nd most Altogether, according to energy analyst corrupt country in the world, according tions. George Soros is set to F.W. Engdahl, the Ukraine crisis has to the Transparency International’s Cor - invest $1 billion in Ukraine, ushered in the birth of a “new global ruption Perceptions Index – the most particularly in the nationalized monetary order and a new Eurasian eco - widely used indicator of corruption energy company Naftogaz, nomic colossus to rival US sole super - worldwide. power hegemony”. According to Rada (Ukrainian parlia - once it is broken up and sold While Engdahl’s analysis seems to ment) deputy Sergey Kaplin, all min - off – and pressing for his overestimate US weakness and underes - istries have bribe collectors. The war investment to be underwritten timate the dangers of its unleashing war makes corruption easier, with army offi - by the EU’s AAA credit rating. as a reckless means of retaining global cers and officials stealing huge amounts dominance – he doesn’t account for the of weapons originally destined for the This is typical Soros shock US reinvigoration of NATO – it does Ukrainian army – and frequently selling therapy, as seen in other point clearly to the rapidly shifting pat - them off to the separatists in the east. ex-Soviet bloc countries. terns in power relations, with China and While the people suffer from rising Russia growing closer. taxes and unaffordable gas prices, as well If the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine as rampant inflation, the military budget Conclusion breaks down, the US, under intense stands at $5.4 billion. Incorporating Ukraine into the western pressure from both Republican and De - The pressure from the oligarch em - bloc is coming at a higher price than the mocrat hawks – many of the latter within ployers to tear up the old progressive US anticipated, when it orchestrated the Obama administration – could opt to labour code – which contained many sniper fire to spark Yanukovych’s down - arm Ukraine and escalate the conflict, Soviet era worker protections – will drive fall. First, Russia has shown its ability against explicit Russian warnings. Ukrainian wages down and remove long- to defend its interests boldly – though With eastern Europe increasingly on a held rights: a maximum 40 hour working also willing to compromise, accepting the war footing under the NATO alliance, week, continuous leisure time of 42 loss of influence in western Ukraine for US warmongers might decide to strike hours a week, protection for pregnant the sake of stability. now, while they believe they have the women and young mothers from the Its refusal to bow to US diktat, first strength to win a major war.

Summer 2015 The Socialist Correspondent 19 Yemen: Saudis’ war to regain control Yemen: Saudis’ war to regain control

The US-backed Saudi war in Yemen is destroying one of whose fighters are composed largely of the world’s poorest countries to maintain control over a military units loyal to Saleh, while Saleh’s son is being groomed for the strategically important region presidential role. The Saudis claim the war is being By SIMON KORNER waged to protect the Yemeni people from a group “allied and supported by Despite the official end of Operation Iran and Hezbollah.” But this protec - Decisive Storm – Saudi Arabia’s bomb - tion has caused 3,000 deaths – some es - ing campaign in Yemen, which began in timates put the figure as high as 8,000 – March – the war is continuing. and left 6 million at risk of starvation The bombardment, including illegal and 9 million without reliable water sup - cluster bombs, has given the Saudis plies. control over Yemeni airspace and coasts, All the countries comprising the Gulf allowing them to blockade Yemeni im - Co-operation Council (GCC) except ports – not only arms – so that severe Oman are supporting the war, and the fuel shortages are afflicting the popula - Saudi US and Britain are providing intelli - tion. Disease is widespread as necessary Arabia gence and logistics. Other Arab coun - fuel to power water-pumps is unavail - Yemen tries, such as Jordan, Morocco, Egypt able. and Jordan have also offered help. The Saudi war aims are to reinstate Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula its puppet leader, the unelected presi - south and west. (AQAP) is also fighting the Houthis. dent Hadi, to power. Hadi fled to The former president Saleh remains AQAP has gained control over in - Riyadh after being toppled by the in Yemen and is backing the Houthis, creasingly large sections of Yemen since Houthis (from north western Yemen) even though when in power he con - 2009, particularly in the southern last September, and now the Houthis ducted six brutal campaigns against Hadramaut province, exploiting the cur - hold the capital Sana’a, and have them. Many sources believe Saleh is rent war between the Houthis and pro- taken large swathes of territory to the significant in maintaining Houthi power, government forces.

Saudi-led air strike on Sana’a - the capital - in June 2015.

20 The Socialist Correspondent Summer 2015 Yemen: Saudis’ war to regain control

Though its leader Wuhayshi was re - Meanwhile, the Houthis are attacking cently killed by US drone attack in mid- Saudi Arabian border regions – with the June, objectively AQAP constitutes a aim of stirring up Shi’ite Zaydi tribes in pro-western force. For example, the Saudi territory. Saudis did not bomb AQAP during Op - Between the Gulf states there are divi - eration Decisive Storm; Wuhayshi’s sions. The UAE backed ex-president killing by drone may have been a warn - Saleh against Islah, due to its fear of po - ing to AQAP to stay onside. The new litical Islam, so that when Saleh turned AQAP leader used to work for the towards the Houthis last year, the UAE Yemeni intelligence agency under US di - found itself indirectly supporting the rection. Houthis. Meanwhile, Qatar, with its Other groups opposing the Houthis in Muslim Brotherhood connections, is al - the complex civil war are: the powerful lied with Islah, the enemy of the Houthis Ahmar clan; the Muslim Brotherhood and Saleh. party Islah, which has a fundamentalist For Iran, the war on Yemen is a dan - wing and is backed by former Saleh gen - gerous escalation of Saudi power, which eral (and later opponent) Mohsen; and could force it into intervention more di - army units loyal to Mohsen, who fled to 1954 - Britain’s Queen Elizabeth II rectly in Iraq and Syria, or in the Shia Saudi Arabia after the Houthis took - sword in hand - with her areas of Saudi Arabia itself. In a recent Saan’a. husband, Prince Philip, as she is speech Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Meanwhile, in the oil-rich south, about to knight some of her Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon which was formerly a separate socialist subjects in Aden in South Yemen, warned that it would be possible to arm people’s republic during the Cold War, a then a British colony. Shi’ite rebels in Bahrain. divided secessionist movement also op - At least 700,000 Yemenis are in need poses the Houthis, because of the latter’s for the Saudis - which had previously of food assistance, according to the UN. commitment to Yemeni national unity. backed Islah - when Saudi rival Qatar Water is in short supply due to the Saudi Yemen’s fragmentation fits US policy, increased its influence over the party; fuel blockade, reinforced by the US which is to break up territories to keep and by the time of Sisi’s coup in Egypt navy. Hospitals are unable to cope with - them as weak and undemocratic as pos - in 2013, the Saudis followed Egypt in out supplies. sible – as in Libya and Iraq. branding the Muslim Brotherhood (and Underlying the situation in Yemen are Meanwhile, Iran has sent 5 shipments affiliated groups) terrorists, though there stringent spending cuts that have hit the of humanitarian aid to Aden, but has is contact with Islah again now that the poor hardest. Since 1990, when Yemen, been forced to suspend the aid for fear Houthis have become the Saudis’ main as a non-permanent UN security coun - of the Saudi air force – backed by US enemy. cil member, voted against war in Iraq, ships in the Gulf of Aden, including an Saudi Arabia perceives Iranian influ - the US has cut its aid to Yemen mas - aircraft carrier – which has threatened ence as a threat to its power in the re - sively. At the 2010 London conference Iranian vessels. gion, and claims that the Houthis are on Yemen, western powers agreed to in - getting military and financial help from tensify ‘security’ and increase austerity – Background the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The targeting the 153rd poorest nation in the The Houthi tribal movement makes up Saudi bombing campaign thus has a world. 40% of Yemen’s population and has suf - strategic aim of weakening Iran. Meanwhile, money is being spent on fered discrimination for decades. Its Some sources believe the US was not arms to the Saudis and the GCC states Zaydi branch of Shi’te Islam underwent informed of the first Saudi bombing at - – massively increased since the terrorist a revival in the early 1990s and its anti- tacks in March, suggesting that the attack on a US ship in 2000 and the western position – with links with Saudis are moving out from under US 2008 bombing of the US embassy. Hezbollah and Iran – set the Houthis control, critical of Obama’s rapproche - Yemen has been critically important against the Gulf state leaders and made ment with Iran which has gathered pace strategically since the British Empire them popular; the Houthis took the cap - particularly since the collapse of Iraqi developed the port of Aden as a staging ital, Sana’a in September 2013, pushing forces in the face of IS. post to India - and it is notable that Hadi aside with ease. Ideologically, the The Saudis also fear that the US could British Foreign Secretary, Philip Ham - Houthis are fundamentalist Shi’a, though ditch their autocratic regime, if it ever mond, visited Riyadh just before the with few theological differences with faces popular revolt, just as the US Saudi bombing campaign, given that the Sunnis. ditched Mubarak in Egypt. Saudi war planes are built in the UK, Relations between Saudi Arabia and There is reason for Saudi worries over with Saudi Arabia a major market for the Houthis have fluctuated over the US loyalty. Voices in the US are urging British arms under the series of Al-Ya - years. The Saudis, like the US, sup - a turn towards the Houthis. This article mamah deals. ported the long-time ruler Saleh against in Foreign Affairs put the point Yemen is important to the Americans the Houthi uprising in the early 1990s. clearly:“Those loyal to the Houthi fam - due to its position on the vital straits of After Saleh was ousted in 2011 during ily have emerged as one of the most ef - Bab el-Mandab, linking the Mediter - the Arab Spring, the Saudis switched fective military forces combating the ranean to the Indian Ocean, giving it support to Saleh’s deputy Hadi. Hadi’s expansion of al Qaeda and the Islamic control over the passage of oil tankers austerity policies and continuing corrup - State of Iraq and al-Sham in the Arabian through the Suez Canal. tion made him unpopular, and to bolster Peninsula. If the West turns its back on Moreover, Yemen is a country with his position, he allied himself with the Houthi leadership because of slogans, potentially the world’s largest oil re - Islah party, aligned with the Muslim opportunistic aid from Iran, or Hadi’s serves. US policy is dictated by its need Brotherhood. protestations, it might end up forsaking to control both the strategic chokepoint But that alliance became problematic a serious partner in the Middle East.” and the oil reserves.

Summer 2015 The Socialist Correspondent 21 Venezuala and Ecuador under threat Venezuela and Ecuador under threat

The reactionary war against democratically elected, mine social gains rather than take them progressive governments in South America remains a serious forward. Within Venezuela the opposition is still threat. weak and divided. Lopez has called off a 30 day hunger strike claiming that one By FRIEDA PARK (though only one) of his demands had been met. As they seek to defend themselves from sion. Of around 3000 people arrested, This was that a date be fixed for elec - destabilisation and attempted coups so 1558 were charged with offences of tions. The announcement by the they come under further attack. whom 35 remain in prison. Action was Venezuelan Electoral Commission that This not only takes the form of sup - taken against security personnel who parliamentary elections will be held on port to right-wing opposition groups, had responded with excessive force. 6th December 2015 was in keeping with but attempting to influence world opin - Among those who remain in prison normal timetables for arranging election are some prominent opposition leaders, dates and was not a response to Lopez. including Leopoldo Lopez, who is However, this get-out was seized on by charged with various offences relating to Lopez, who might have gathered promi - organising and inciting the violence of nent supporters abroad, but has less last year. support at home. Opposition demon - The US and the right are attempting strations called by him recently have had to make these individuals figureheads tiny turnouts. for the campaign to undermine democ - The United Socialist Party of racy and the rule of law in Venezuela. Venezuela (PSUV) has won 11 of the Support has come from the likes of Fe - last 12 parliamentary elections. lipe Gonzalez, former right-wing Presi - During the time it has been in govern - dent of Spain who has offered his ment it has significantly extended access services to the Lopez defence team. to, and participation in, the electoral At the United Nations Human Rights process. From 1998 to 2012 the electoral Commission Venezuela robustly de - roll grew from 11 million to 19 million fended its record under attack from people. NGOs, some of which are funded by Venezuela operates a system of pri - the US government via the National En - maries, where people pick their Party dowment for Democracy. These in - candidates. These were held recently, cluded Prensa y Sociedad, Observatorio with 3.1 million people turning out to se - Venezolano de Prisiones and Espacio lect candidates for the PSUV and saw Publico. long queues at polling booths. On the left we need to question re - By contrast the right-wing opposition Venezuala’s President, ports of rights violations and not take at MUD coalition had a turnout of 543,000 Nicolas Maduro face value what is being said because voters in their primaries. There were they emanate from progressive-sound - other contrasts too. ion against those governments. ing civil society organisations. Of the PSUV candidates 85% were In Venezuela the extreme right oppo - After all Archbishop Desmond Tutu under 50 years old and over half were sition showed its anti-democratic cre - is among those to side with the right in women. Of the MUD candidates over dentials by its refusal to accept the Venezuela and calls for these “political 80% were above the age of 50. election of Nicolas Maduro as President prisoners” to be released. Despite the difficulties caused by the after the untimely death of Hugo The battle of facts and ideology will fall in the price of oil, and the attempted Chavez. get harder as the US and the right pile destabilisation of the country, support It launched a campaign of violence on the pressure. Organisations claiming for the PSUV and the Bolivarian revolu - aimed at forcing him out of office by to represent workers, indigenous people, tion remains high. In a recent poll 62% destabilising the country. In this it was LGBT communities, environmentalists backed the government to continue. wholly unsuccessful; however, it did suc - etc are widely quoted attacking the gov - ceed in causing destruction of public ernments of Venezuela and Ecuador. Ecuador property and the deaths of 43 people. Some are real organisations with real Ecuador has also been a target for desta - The Venezuelan government and peo - concerns and some are not. We need to bilisation. Plans were recently uncovered ple met this challenge with considerable be careful that we are not co-opted into for another coup attempt against Presi - restraint and there was no mass repres - agendas which ultimately seek to under - dent Rafael Correa and his government

22 The Socialist Correspondent Summer 2015 Venezuala and Ecuador under threat

ahead of the planned visit by Pope Francis. Venezuela’s Health Programme The last coup attempt was in 2010 and the recent plans included blockad - Saving Lives, Helping Millions ing of airports and roads, attacks on the police, the occupation of the presidential palace and government buildings. Protests have been happening in the two biggest cites, Quito and Guayaquil, since early June when the government announced plans to increase capital gains and inheritance taxes, which tells us all we need to know about the class charac - ter of the demonstrators. Despite temporarily withdrawing the bills in order to have dialogue, the pro - testers demands escalated to include the overthrow of Correa, despite his demo - cratic mandate - he was re-elected in 2013 with 57% of the vote. The necessary responses of the demo - cratically elected governments of Venezuela, Ecuador and others to pre - vent coups, violence and instability are predictably portrayed as repressive by

Ecuador’s President, Rafael Correa the media here. The actual context and the facts are in short supply. The fact that prominent politicians have been charged with offences relating to the attempted overthrow of the Venezuelan Government does not make them political prisoners. Prior to the violence of last year they After providing more than 705 million participated freely in the democratic process. They have not been jailed, nor free consultations, Venezuela’s widely will they stand trial for their views, but popular health programme recently for illegal, anti-democratic actions. Due process will determine their guilt marked its 12th anniversary. or innocence.

Summer 2015 The Socialist Correspondent 23 70th anniversary of Dresden Inferno 70th anniversary of Dresden Inferno

The 13th of February 2015 was the 70th anniversary of the high as a house. destruction of Dresden by Anglo-American bomb attacks. The length of time between the two attacks – a strategy of double attack was By Dr KLAUS SCHWURACK, Dresden. followed – was minutely reckoned. Be - Traslated from the German journal Rotfuchs by Pat Turnbull. tween the first and second wave only some three hours were to pass. This year as usual this is the occasion President, Harry S. Truman declared The second wave happened when fire for debates over whether and in what only a day after the invasion of the and rescue efforts were in full flow and manner to commemorate this event. USSR by the fascist armed forces: ‘If we the fascists’ night fighters (anti-aircraft For several years there has been a see that Germany is winning, we should deployment proved to be ineffectual) widely held view that a so-called ‘Dres - help Russia, and if Russia is winning we had not yet been able to take off. den myth’ had to be countered. Even should help Germany, so that in this Now it was mainly explosive bombs some on the left take this view. way as many as possible should kill each which were dropped on the blazing city Those who say Dresden must be ‘de- other.’ and its defenceless inhabitants. As mythologised’ say – undoubtedly cor - As a chief argument for restraint it is many people as possible were to be rectly – that fascist Germany unleashed suggested that Dresden was, after all, killed. the Second World War and that Goer - not an ‘innocent’ city. Even if certain The attack did not contribute in any ing’s air force had previously bombed arguments to back this up are accurate, way to a quicker military defeat of Hitler Guernica, Coventry and Rotterdam. it does not alter the barbaric character Germany nor to the effective support of From my point of view this only tells of the attack on a defenceless civilian the approaching Red Army. Nor was it part of the truth and represents a cer - population. in any way discussed with Moscow, tain simplification of history. Did the fact play a role that Dresden, contrary to statements by imperialist German fascism did not appear from as the single undestroyed German me - circles. nowhere but was bolstered for years by tropolis, was already being talked of as In summer 1944 a memorandum was German capital itself and by the west - part of the future Soviet occupation presented to the chiefs of general staff ern powers. With their insidious policy zone? of the western allies on the subject of a of appeasement, they hoped to divert Incidentally, the USSR, which had in - special air attack, far greater in its effects Nazi German aggression from them - comparably more victims and destruc - than bombardments up to that point, on selves and direct it towards the Soviet tion to complain of, and whose territory a large German city. ‘This could result Union alone. had been laid waste by the fascist ag - in enormous destruction if the attack Unscrupulously they therefore toler - gressors, refused on principle to conduct was concentrated on a single large town ated breaches of the rights of nations, the carpet bombing of towns. apart from Berlin. The effect would be provocations and annexations by the In February 1945 there was no longer particularly great if it was a town which German fascist leadership. any doubt of the imminent defeat of fas - up to then had suffered relatively little That had already begun with the si - cist Germany. Dresden was not a destruction,’ said the document. The lence when the German army marched fortress and therefore did not need to be planned operation was named Thun - into the demilitarized Rhine zone, and stormed by allied troops. derstorm. continued with the ‘non-intervention’ There were indeed factories there On the advice of the united planning after the attack by Franco, Hitler and which were important for the war effort, committee the implementation of the Mussolini on the Spanish Republic, and like the Saxon Works, plus military sites plan was postponed to a time when the the subsequent annexation of Austria and the aerodrome used by the German united intelligence committee viewed the and the Munich Agreement, which pre - air force. But these were not the targets circumstances as favourable for a re - sented Hitler with Czechoslovakia to be which would be attacked. newed test of its capabilities. swallowed up. An air photograph taken by the This restraint had reasons; since the At the same time the west rejected British Royal Air Force, on which the beginning of the 1940s the USA had every proposal by the USSR for creating intended area to be bombed was pre - been working feverishly on the develop - a system of collective security. cisely marked, made it clear that the ment of an atomic bomb. The leader of The Second World War was at the bombing attacks of the western allied the project reckoned that the first start a clash between two imperialist squadrons were limited to the heavily weapon of mass destruction would be coalitions; but there were still differ - populated centre of the city on the Elbe. ready for deployment in January 1945. ences. Some western politicians did not In the first wave of attacks the main On the 25th January the united intel - hesitate to express, even in public weapon was huge quantities of fire ligence committee recommended to the speeches, their hope that Germany and bombs which set off a devastating fire British Prime Minister Winston the Soviet Union would mutually de - storm. People trying to escape were Churchill a modified version of action stroy each other. US Senator, later hemmed in by a barrier of flames as Thunderstorm. As the atomic bomb

24 The Socialist Correspondent Summer 2015 70th anniversary of Dresden Inferno

was not yet at their disposal, it would be the pilots had been given express per - that they, like the USSR, are regarded as carried out with conventional weapons. mission to bomb even opportunist victims in an undifferentiated way. That From the 3rd to the 11th February the targets. is a simplification. Crimean Conference of the allies of the What reason can there be to question Between the western powers and Nazi anti-Hitler coalition met in Yalta. the figure of 35,000 dead which had Germany existed – despite contradic - For Churchill the intention was to been circulated in the German Demo - tions – a common class interest in the shock the Soviet Union with a demon - cratic Republic and was regarded for destruction of the socialist Soviet Union stration of western air power in order to decades as the number regarded as ac - which had become a great power in the be able to negotiate with Moscow from a curate? In the Dresden Heide cemetery course of the war. position of strength; the Soviet Union’s 28,746 victims have been buried. It is The inventors of a so-called myth of convincing success in their Weichsel- known in addition that in the fire storm Dresden completely leave out of the ac - Oder offensive in January had been very many of the people caught in it lit - count such facts and connections, and extremely unpalatable to the Anglo- erally burned without trace. instead take the line of the ‘anti-Ger - American imperialists. The ‘newer information’ was largely mans’ when they press for ‘understand - However, unfavourable weather con - deduced by means of doubtful, invalid ing’ of the bombing of Dresden and in ditions forced the operation to be post - methods. The results rest largely on the course of doing so adopt the theory poned; it could only take place somewhat false premises and unproven assertions. that the dead of February 1945 were later. At that time the western allies were Even if it cannot be proved, the suspi - themselves the culprits. firmly of the view that the war in Europe cion that these ‘researches’ were politi - Those who attempt to label the popu - would not be over until the second half cally motivated projects cannot be lation of a whole city in such a fashion of 1945. regarded as groundless. and who call it a ‘myth of victimhood’ If this had been the case, the USA when it comes to commemorating those would almost certainly have dropped who died a painful death at that time, their first atomic bomb on Dresden. The Churchill in RAF uniform distance themselves from humanity. unexpectedly rapid advance of the Red For Churchill the Anyone who carries banners and plac - Army alone is to be thanked for pre - intention (bomb - ards with slogans like ‘Bomber Harris, do venting this genocidal crime from hap - it again!’ or ‘No tears for krauts’ is no pening. ing Dresden) anti-fascist. It is not a question of creating and was to shock the The new Nazis falsify the history of maintaining an alleged myth, not even a Soviet Union the Dresden inferno in particular by mis - question of Dresden in itself, but a mat - with a demon - appropriating the historical truth. They ter of facts and background information stration of west - are silent on the fact that the war was which are no longer to be read in history begun by Hitler fascism and rebounded books. The reason is obvious: they con - ern air power in on Germany. They thereby falsify Hitler tradict the anti-communist mood of the order to negoti - fascism’s main responsibility for the de - times and are therefore uncomfortable in ate with Moscow from a position struction of Dresden. NATO circles. of strength ... But there is a clear difference between During the Second World War there recognizing the basic share of responsi - were influential groups in leading circles bility of a people in proven crimes in Great Britain and the USA who Fascism was not the spawn of the in - against humanity and war crimes and la - wanted a separate peace with Hitler Ger - scrutable German national character. Its belling them as culprits without differen - many in order to march against the So - roots lie in imperialism and not in a par - tiation. viet Union with the German armed ticular national culture. People who reject the theory of ‘It forces. Churchill declared quite openly The bombings of Guernica, Warsaw, served them right!’ and who honourably after the defeat of the Third Reich: ‘We Coventry, Rotterdam, Leningrad and commemorate their relatives and forefa - have slaughtered the wrong pig.’ many other towns by Goering’s air force thers who were torn apart, killed, Today’s NATO allies don’t want a blot were therefore not principally German crushed, burned to death and suffocated on the landscape like the destruction of but imperialist crimes. are unjustly defamed by people who the Dresden cultural metropolis to attach This standard must equally be applied were only protected from these atrocities itself to them any longer. So the mur - to the wiping out of Dresden’s inner city. by being born later. derous carpet bombing on the Elbe has It is valid too for the dropping of US That is also a form of revision of his - to be presented as a perfectly normal atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Na - tory which plays into the hands of the military operation. gasaki. Genocidal crimes are, independ - proponents of new variants of fascism, This is clearly the reason for the ent of whether they are committed by which Georgi Dimitrov once charac - reduction some time ago of the number German, British, American or other im - terised as the rule of the most reac - of victims of the air attacks to 18,000 - perialists, products of the system. tionary, most chauvinist and most 25,000 by an officially appointed Dres - The fact that Hitler had first attacked imperialist circles of finance capital. den Historians’ Commission, as well as Britain and France and that the Soviet The reconciliation rituals which have the denial of the deployment of low fly - Union in the context of the anti-Hitler taken place for years in Dresden, with ing aircraft on 14th February 1945. coalition undertook an alliance with the white roses, candles and chains of peo - Now suddenly we are told that it was western allies which brought about vic - ple, conceal the fact that those who were actually a matter of air battles between tory over fascism must not lead to a lack once responsible for the carpet bombing machines of the US air force and Ger - of clarity over the perception of class po - of the city on the Elbe and the wiping man fighters. This theory ignores all the sitions. out of Hiroshima and Nagasaki acted accessible sources: documents and eye- The western allies appear from such a and act now in the same imperialist witness accounts of those who experi - point of view to a certain extent as the manner in Korea, Vietnam, Yugoslavia, enced and survived the inferno. In fact ‘natural allies’ of the Soviet Union, so Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria.

Summer 2015 The Socialist Correspondent 25 Hardship or hope for Africa? Hardship or hope

In the third and final part of his series on how global warming could lead to a food catastrophe, for Africa? Greg Kaser looks at the situation of Africa.

It is not enough to think globally and act locally. We must mation, and there are many examples act locally, nationally and internationally to achieve a decisive where it has been pivotal to the realized growth, including among others in shift towards the collective management of land and water Ethiopia, Uganda, Ghana, and my own resources if humanity is to get through the climate crisis. country, Rwanda. “However, agriculture must be treated By GREG KASER as a business and not just a subsistence activity, in order for it to become a Africa is the continent least able to cope and Europe as well. The other major transformation agent. A huge market ex - with the impacts of CO2 emissions on crop cultivated in Africa, cassava, is not ists. The potential to increase produc - the planet’s climate and oceans. Its pop - grown in quantity in North America but tivity, create more jobs and raise ulation is projected to rise from 1 billion is found in South Asia. Here again incomes is ever present. to 1.6 billion by 2030 and to 2.4 billion African farmers get only one-third of the “But to turn agriculture into a busi - by 2050. output achieved in the Indian sub-con - ness dictates that we modernize it, in - Over past decades, the world’s agri - tinent. vest in technology and research, make cultural production grew faster than its Low yields reflect the deficiencies in reforms in land tenure, land and water total population, as a result of the Green farming technologies, the unaffordabil - management, and develop transporta - Revolution. Since the 1960s, the Green ity of seeds, fertilizers and pesticides, tion infrastructure for greater distribu - (1) Revolution has introduced new crop va - and the lack of access to banking and tion and trade.” rieties, brought better water manage - insurance, capital for investment, and to Others stress “support for ecological ment, improved use of fertilizers and markets for selling the produce as a smallholder farming in Africa”, as pesticides and know-how to millions of result of poor roads, the absence of against “agribusiness” and a “new wave smallholder farmers in developing coun - warehouses and refrigeration, and so on. of colonialism” (open letter to David tries. But Africa today grows only the Co-operatives for processing and mar - Cameron from John Hilary, War on same amount of food per person as it keting the produce are also essential if Want, and other British non-govern - (2) did in 1960. Less than 7% of cultivated farmers are to ‘move up the value mental organizations). land is irrigated compared to 40% in chain’. Massive tracts of land are being Asia. Fertilizer usage is far smaller and These problems are well known but bought in Africa by companies for plan - the number of tractors per hectare is how to address them is controversial. tation or other types of large-scale agri - three times higher in Asia than in Africa. In a recent speech President Paul culture, for either food production or The Green Revolution had some suc - Kagame of Rwanda suggested that the bio-fuels, and driving smallholders off cess in Africa – more food is grown than modernization of African agriculture can their land and into destitution. ever before – but in Asia and Latin only be achieved if it is economically Action Aid published research sug - America food production exceeded pop - viable. “Agriculture [is] a crucial cor - gesting that six million hectares of land ulation growth; this failed to happen in nerstone to Africa’s economic transfor - in Sub-Saharan Africa are under the Africa. The continent is in a weak posi - tion should climate change under - Table 1: Crop Yields as a Percentage of North American Yields mine food production further. Region Maize Wheat Rice Potatoes Onions Sorghum Understanding why this is and what can be done to avoid a looming ca - Southern Africa 43 94 31 78 41 41 tastrophe means taking a close look at the use of land. West Africa 19 59 24 11 35 24 East Africa 13 59 28 21 12 27 African crop yields are already low Africa has plenty of land but crop East Asia 57 159 86 36 40 103 yields per hectare are much lower than in North America or Europe. Southeast Asia 28 54 53 34 15 41 Table 1 shows the yields for differ - South Asia 37 84 45 46 28 25 ent African regions as a percentage of those achieved in North America. Europe 63 136 76 48 40 75 Typically, yields in Sub-Saharan Africa are about 37% of those in North America 100 100 100 100 100 100 North America. They are generally Source: Food & Agricultural Organization, 2008 data. lower than yields obtained in Asia

26 The Socialist Correspondent Summer 2015 Hardship or hope for Africa?

control of European companies planning or might change as global warming pro - Africa relying upon unimproved drink - to grow bio-fuels. The charity claims ceeds. ing water sources and 70% lacking im - that there has been a “diversion of land proved sanitation. from producing food for people to pro - Africa is able to feed itself As populations have increased, more ducing fuel for cars” with “disastrous” Many African countries face chronic and more land is being used for growing consequences for “global hunger” and food shortages and several millions go crops. Worldwide, cultivated areas have with allegedly little benefit in mitigating hungry every day. There are 265 million been expanding by nearly two million climate change. malnourished people in Sub-Saharan hectares a year, and it is estimated that Environmental Africa, nearly one- the rate of expansion will treble over the campaigner George third of the total next two decades. Monbiot, writing in population. Two-thirds of this expansion will be in The Guardian , Nearly half of Sub-Saharan Africa. (4) Part of this ex - joined in the debate all pregnant pansion is at the expense of forests, and with criticism of women suffer it also includes the farming of marginal plans put forward from anaemia and land in hilly or mountainous zones or at by the New Al - 14% of babies the edge of arid areas. liance for Food Se - have low birth- Even so, huge areas of suitable agri - curity and Nutrition weight. Half the cultural land remain to be exploited for ahead of the G-8 children – 195 crops, and nearly half of it is to be found Summit of world million – are in Africa. leaders in June stunted. This land is non-forested, outside eco - 2013. Among the logically protected zones and lightly pop - The G-8 and the countries unable ulated. It amounts to some 200 million Alliance, he alleged, to feed their pop - hectares and much of it is to be found in aimed “to cajole ulations are: Burk - Ghana, Chad, Sudan, Congo, Mozam - African countries Dried cassava in Cameroon ina Faso, Burundi, bique, Madagascar, Tanzania, Zambia into a new set of Central African and Zimbabwe. agreements that allow foreign companies Republic, Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Further expansion of arable land, to grab their land, patent their seeds and Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Kenya, Liberia, whether this is for food and animal feed … remove any market barriers that Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and or for crops suitable as bio-fuels, can be favour their own farmers”. (3) Zimbabwe. accommodated sustainably on the conti - Bottoming out this argument requires Furthermore, hunger is often exacer - nent. us to look at the structural features of bated by water scarcity and poor sanita - In fact, since the total area of culti - African agriculture and how this could tion, with 37% of people in Sub-Saharan vated land in Sub-Saharan Africa at the moment amounts to 221 million hectares, the po - Table 2: Average Farm Sizes Worldwide (1994-2011 data) tential exists to almost double crop production. Region Mean size Percentage of farms Trend since 1970 So, if African farmers (ha) under 2 ha (%) were to become as effi - cient as, say, European Sub-Saharan Africa 2.4 69 Farms getting smaller farmers, then crop pro - duction could double; Southeast Asia 1.8 57 Farms getting smaller and if they farmed twice the land area at this dou - South Asia 1.4 78 Farms getting smaller ble productivity, then the East Asia 1.0 79 Farms getting smaller agricultural output from African farmers could be West Asia & North Africa 4.9 65 Data not available four times what it is today. Europe 32.3 30 Farms getting bigger Not only can Africa feed its growing popula - North America 190.1 4 Farms getting bigger tion, but it could export crops to the rest of the Central America 10.7 63 Data not available world.

South America 111.7 36 No overall change Surviving the impact of Oceania 2.7 18 Data not available climate change And there is some more Australia/New Zealand 2239.1 : Farms getting bigger good news. Rain-fed agriculture could prove World 5.5 : to be more resilient to cli - mate change than irri - Source: Klaus Deininger and Derek Byerlee, with others, 2011, Rising Global Interest in Farmland: Can it yield gated crops, according to sustainable and equitable benefits? , Washington: The World Bank: p. 28, Table 1.3; FAO World the International Food Census of Agriculture 2000; Canadian and US farm census data. Policy Research Institute. Global warming will in -

Summer 2015 The Socialist Correspondent 27 Hardship or hope for Africa?

Wanawake Kwanza (Women First) crease water evaporation from the growers association in Maza able. The alternative is to move towards oceans and therefore rainfall should be village, Morogoro, Tanzania. (US Aid) a socialist solution. heavier (but storms more violent). African farmers tend to rely on rain - Collectivization revisited fall so more frequent rain might help farmers are mostly smallholders tending Paul Kagame is a forthright proponent them initially. Rain-fed crops are tougher tiny scattered parcels of land. They are of Chinese participation in Africa’s de - and better adapted to the intermittency in no position to adapt to climate change velopment. He is not alone and there are of rainfall. Irrigated crops depend on without assistance. That’s the bad news. some other, perhaps unlikely, supporters there being a steady water supply and A study in 2009 by the International of the Chinese model for agriculture. will perish if this is not available. Food Policy Research Institute suggested A World Bank paper on ‘Learning Rice is especially vulnerable in this re - that without an increase in irrigated area, from the Chinese Miracle’ praises the spect. But it should be noted that while in any case necessary if Africa is to feed development lessons for Africa. Dis - irrigated farming takes up only one-fifth itself, Sub-Saharan Africa would see falls cussing the replacement of the commune of the world’s farmland it grows two- in agricultural output as a result of cli - system by the household responsibility fifths of the world’s food. mate change. system, the paper notes: “The reforms Africa’s problems are interconnected: Farmers in East Africa are adapting by had strong ramifications on economic reliance on rainfall results in low yields; introducing more drought resistant vari - output. The fast growth of agricultural but fertilizers are less efficient where eties, but they are also changing or even output accumulated crucial initial capi - rainfall is low and unpredictable; and abandoning a sowing season. Instead of tal for the take-off of rural enterprises, lack of fertilizers leads to soil depletion raising cattle they now just tend hardier which were concentrated in labour-in - and worsens yields. goats. (5) Adapting to climate change is al - tensive industries. There was a dramatic Turning this situation around will be ready reducing food supplies. increase in household savings … [and], expensive: irrigation, drainage, water The trouble is that African farms, as in parallel, a new pricing policy was in - harvesting and storage projects are cap - in other developing countries in Asia, are troduced to give stronger incentives to ital intensive, with major environmental tiny and in no position to finance capital individual farmers. From 1979 to 1981, impact and social repercussions in terms investment. Table 2 sets out some recent reformers [in the Chinese government] of management and upkeep. data on average farm size. cumulatively boosted procurement prices However, if temperatures carry on ris - In Sub-Saharan Africa, 80% of farm - of crops to close to 40 per cent over ing, rainfall patterns could alter drasti - ers are smallholders, the majority of 1978 levels. Finally, the government pro - cally and no agricultural zone will then whom are women. (6) Small farms can be vided farmers subsidies to buy seeds and be safe. very efficient but left to their own devices fertilizers needed to grow high-yielding The increasing frequency of drought smallholders cannot invest to expand as hybrid rice varieties.” (7) suggests that global warming is already businesses. The World Bank omits to mention that altering the climate around the Indian The long-term trend is towards larger the household responsibility system, in - Ocean, including that of East Africa. farms, but even in developed countries troduced under Deng Xiaoping, is not a Variability in weather patterns is the these receive state subsidies, which for form of private ownership but a collec - ruin of small-scale farmers. African many developing countries is unafford - tive solution, ‘owned’ by families and

28 The Socialist Correspondent Summer 2015 Hardship or hope for Africa?

the community. scattered parcels. rights through programmes to register From 1979 on, the Chinese Commu - On the other hand, mechanised farms customary rights to land, forest and nist Party encouraged communes “to di - would require less labour and there is water resources. vide the land to the households” but abundant rural labour in China, and A very successful programme of this retained village and township enterprises Africa. The situation will change in type has been undertaken in Rwanda, as collectives. In 1983-84, the 50,000 China as the push to develop the New part-funded by the British government. communes were replaced by 92,000 Socialist Countryside becomes a reality. Rwanda has endured a tragic history of townships and the six million production Former prime minister Wen Jiabao an - ethnic conflict in which its two main brigades (each consisting of an average nounced the programme in 2006, which communities have seized land from each of 33 families cultivating about 8 aims to narrow the gap in living stan - other, in repeated rounds of mass killing hectares) were broken up. dards between urban and rural areas. and expulsion. Households are responsible for man - The Chinese examples suggest that Under Kagame’s Rwandan Patriotic aging land under lease and must fulfil with a fair structure of land tenure (with Front government, which set out to end government contracts for production. all households gaining a stake in manag - the cycle of conflict, claims to land have They are free to sell any surplus produce ing the land), appropriate incentives to been arbitrated by local commissions and on the market. spur productivity, specialization, innova - title registered formally. A feature of the Typically a household leases about 0.6 tion and marketing, and the provision of process was the recognition of widows’ hectares for a term of 15 years, though up-to-date knowledge and critical pro - rights. terms of 30 years have been possible duction inputs (seeds, fertilizers and pes - With plots properly delineated by since 1995. China is self-sufficient in ticides) can give a massive boost to satellite mapping and on-the-ground food production, has expanded its crop - agriculture and the rural economy. boundary markers, property rights are ping area and raised yields. Since the Moreover, Chinese farms are run as established legally and the land’s value is 1990s it has been a net exporter of businesses, within a national and provin - available to secure loans for investment. grains. cial planning framework to ensure every A similar programme is underway in Deng’s economic reforms are credited Ethiopia, which also seeks to register with bringing prosperity to the country - women’s title to the land they cultivate. side. The opportunity to diversify pro - The Chinese experience in Security of tenure is a critical factor in duction into a wider range of crops and combining household responsi - ensuring that farmers have the confi - activities (such as sugarcane, fruit, veg - bility with state-supported dence to invest and innovate. If farmers etables and medicinal herbs, orchards, think that they may not reap any benefit animal husbandry, dairy products and development cannot, of course, from improving the productivity of the other non-farm small-scale industry), be transferred to Africa without land they are working they will not in - rather than be tied to the ‘top down’ modification, but the lessons vest, even if they are aware of the ad - state procurement of grains, enabled en - are clear enough. vantages. terprising households to raise their in - But this must be accompanied by gov - come. ernment-funded assistance to smallhold - Even so, it is not an entirely market- Without a major transformation ers and the modernization of the driven/private ownership system of pro - in a socialist direction, African economic infrastructure. Irrigation and duction. The government continues to farmers will be at the mercy of water storage will be necessary if Africa provide know-how, seeds, fertilizers and is to ride out the early consequences of pesticides at affordable prices, which world commodity markets and climate change. were the key elements of the Green Rev - climate change. It is therefore entirely feasible for olution. African smallholders to grow far more Investment and maintenance of the Food production, already low by than they do today and to prosper, as irrigation infrastructure, a major effort world standards, will continue to Kagame envisages, but they cannot do it undertaken by the communes in the on their own. The truth is they have to 1960s and 1970s, remains a collective fall short of what people need. do it together – on a model that enables responsibility. Local governments also them to get the best from the land and help households in marketing their pro - water resources collectively. duce. Farm mechanisation and plot con - region can feed itself and rural develop - Community rights to forage or pasture solidation have suffered as a result, ment is prioritized. animals on land have to be addressed however, and in recognition of this, since By contrast, the perspective for agri - and this can only be achieved through 2008, larger-scale mechanised farming cultural modernization in Africa envis - collective management. The Chinese ex - has been encouraged. ages little role for the state and would be perience in combining household Nonetheless, it remains difficult for driven by Capital. The World Bank’s responsibility with state-supported leaseholders to trade their plots, and, as policy is to favour the role of private development cannot, of course, be trans - these may be dispersed – partly to investors in creating consolidated com - ferred to Africa without modification, ensure that every household has a fair mercial agricultural units with family but the lessons are clear enough. mix of soil types and growing conditions farmers under contract to manage the Without a major transformation in a – Chinese agriculture has reached some - land. socialist direction, African farmers will thing of a productivity plateau (unless In this way the Bank seeks to recon - be at the mercy of world commodity GM crops are introduced more exten - cile the interests of smallholders with markets and climate change. Food pro - sively). agribusiness and institutional investors duction, already low by world standards, Much larger farms in Europe, the for - without compromising the principle of will continue to fall short of what people mer Soviet Union and America have private ownership. need. higher productivity as a result of mech - Such ‘land governance reform’ would, Greater variability in the weather will anisation, which is not practical on small, in fact, strengthen private ownership make matters worse. If many parts of

Summer 2015 The Socialist Correspondent 29 Hardship or hope for Africa?

In the advanced industrial economies A farmer near the town of Gabiley, Somalia. (K Bohmer) the welfare state was secured by the 1950s. Other countries have followed, with emerging industrial nations like China, Brazil and India now putting comprehensive social protection meas - ures in place. But there is still a long way to go in the less developed countries. The prior - ity for twenty-first century socialism is that of planetary management, perhaps, even, of ensuring humankind’s survival. Socialists must not just complete the outstanding tasks but make common cause with the environmental movement to establish proper democratic account - ability at the international level to man - age the Earth’s resources, our industries and our scientific potential to meet peo - ple’s needs for sustenance, security, health and education. The challenge, then, is to achieve pop - ular sovereignty that exercises power lo - cally, nationally and globally. It is not enough to think globally and act locally. As this series has shown, action is needed nationally and internationally if our planet is to be preserved for human Africa cannot feed themselves now, what In so doing the poor incurred the crit - habitation. hope will there be when harvests fail year icism of moral philosophers – the likes of after year? Adam Smith, Edmund Burke and FOOTNOTES Developing countries are, of course, Thomas Malthus – who advocated lais - 1. Speech to High Level Seminar more vulnerable to the famine potential sez-faire. on Africa’s Structural Transforma - Thompson went on to describe how tion organised by the African De - arising from global warming and ocean velopment Bank in Marrakech on acidification. But developed countries these liberal ideas were exported to India (8) 28 May 2013. are by no means immune – drought, with pernicious effect. 2. The Guardian , 8 June 2013. flood, desertification and weather ex - There, as Nobel Prize-winning econo - 3. George Monbiot, Africa, let us tremes will affect the great bread baskets mist Amartya Sen has shown, famine help – just like in 1884, The of Europe and the Americas. Developed was exacerbated by British reluctance to Guardian , 10 June 2013. country consumers will also feel the ef - intervene in the market to prevent the 4. Klaus Deininger and Derek Byer - fects of food and water shortages else - export of grain and rice and to control lee, with others, 2011, Rising where in the form of price hikes. Earth prices. (9) Global Interest in Farmland: Can it would be a hungry planet. We can expect a repeat of the same ar - yield sustainable and equitable guments in favour of ‘letting the market benefits? , Washington: The World Past lessons work’ from today’s neo-liberals, not to Bank: pp. xxvii-xxviii. To prepare a class response we should, mention condemnation of any protest 5. Patti Kristjanson, Introduction to perhaps, recall the days in the seven - action by people unable to afford basic Climate-smart Agriculture, African teenth and eighteenth centuries when sustenance. Union CAADP Workshop on Climate- 20% of the British population went hun - It has been the historic task of social - smart Agriculture, held on 24-27 gry even in good times. ism to overcome the forces of barbarity October 2011 in Nairobi. Historian E P Thompson chronicled and reaction, to free people from op - 6. Montpellier Panel Report, 2012, the direct action taken by the common pression and exploitation, and to con - Growth with Resilience: Opportuni - folk of England to protect their access to struct a global society that fully develops ties for African Agriculture , London: human and natural resources sustainably Imperial College: p. 13. food during periods of dearth. 7. Ali Zafar, 2010, Learning from Through the distribution of anony - and equitably. the Chinese Miracle: Development mous handbills and posters, marches, In the nineteenth century socialists lessons for sub-Saharan Africa , Pol - blockades and ‘riotous assembly’ crowds tackled the threats from predatory capi - icy Research Working Paper 5216, intimidated rich farmers, millers and talism. With occasional liberal allies, so - Washington, DC: The World Bank: merchants into bringing grain to market cialists built democratic nation states that p. 20. and lowering prices to affordable levels. eventually tamed rapacious imperialism. 8. E P Thompson, 1991, Customs The crowds tried to force the lords By the 1960s, colonial rule and inter- in Common, Pontypool : The Merlin lieutenant and magistracy to apply the imperialist wars were, hopefully, over, al - Press: chapter 4 and pages 278- old laws from Tudor times – known though US imperialism still threatens 287. popularly as the Book of Orders – that world peace. For the socialists of the 9. Amartya Sen, 1981, Poverty and prohibited speculation and price rigging twentieth century all-round development Famines: An essay on entitlements by engrossers, factors, forestallers, huck - and restoring dignity to working people and deprivation , Oxford: Clarendon sters, jobbers and laders. were the prime challenges. Press.

30 The Socialist Correspondent Summer 2015 Arnold Mesches and his FBI file Arnold Mesches and his FBI file

Arnold Mesches (pictured below) is a 92 year old American masqueraded as a comrade. artist, who has illuminated - in the style of medieval Mesches was subject 100-27874. A “rank and file member” of the Los An - manuscripts - his own FBI file. geles Communist Party, the FBI ac - knowledged some years into its watch, By GEORGE HEARTFIELD “book number 49939” – not much, or not yet. Arny, as he prefers to be known, had His “potential or actual dangerous - decided to petition for his FBI file after ness” seems to have been that he might seeing those of some friends. “I loved become something more, might know the way they looked, those black strokes, someone bigger, do something bigger. like Franz Kline color sketches. I also He certainly popped up at a lot of thought, ‘This is history, and, hey, this is marches and concerts for “peace.” my history.’” Who could know his dark ambitions? The package that eventually arrived He had been a young radical, a “former when unbound from the armour of AYD member”; that’s American Youth wads of plastic tape, disclosed in its 768 for Democracy. pages the comings and goings of While doing set illustrations for a Mesches’ past, each page a single report, Tarzan movie he walked off the job in supplied by FBI agents or, more often, the great Hollywood Strike of 1946. by comrades and bedmates, people at a He learned to work in watercolour by meeting, in a crowd, studio models, pur - going out painting with a couple of set ported friends. people every morning after picket duty. He learned that the Bureau paid in - He “dressed like a Communist,” accord - formants $75 a page for their trouble. obscuring them, emerge from the same ing to the FBI file, always in jeans and a “Imagine if you were reporting on ten period as the files. Their juxtaposition is T-shirt. people, that’s $750 a week, $3,000 a an aesthetic choice. He did covers and inside drawings for month; people were living on it.” There is: Frontier, “definitely anti-FBI.” “He did Half a million people were within the n the first cover of Playboy, sketches on disarmament for a confer - state’s scope during the years the House n a paint-by-number Last Supper, ence in April, 1960, sponsored by the Un-American Activities Committee n a soldier in winter in Korea, Emma Lazarus Jewish Women’s Club.” functioned. “I had only 768 pages. I had n snapshots of Coney Island, He drove a 1954 Ford station wagon, a friend who had 4,000. He was a very n Arny’s children, “an old model Nash, California license busy man.” n an audience in 3D glasses, 2N19005.” Arny poured over those pages, and n Malcolm X, He taught art in Salt Lake City but while he was re-living his life through n the KKK, was “expelled for Communist Sympa - the eyes of the FBI he also saw beauty in n pieces of toys, thies.” the riddle of ink on paper. He began a n logos for Flair and for Mad, He taught art at USC. He signed a series of large paintings, collages. n Nixon (see back page), brief in support of John Howard Lawson Mulling over the idea of illuminated n image transfers from magazine ads and Dalton Trumbo as representative of manuscripts, he worked on a smaller for Cutty Sark and Marlboro, the Arts & Professions Group. scale, using the pages themselves, mak - n the Kennedy convention with On January 26, 1966, the Special ing diptychs, containing the documents grotesques on lofted banners, Agent in Charge of LA sent J. Edgar within borders, adorning them with n Havana January 1, 1959, Hoover an airmail letter “Re: Artist miniatures, ornamenting them with n the Hollywood Strike 1946-47 (see Protest Committee/Information Con - rough or classical lettering, decorating back page), cerning/(Internal Security)” with them in gold. n Paul Robeson as Othello, Mesches’ name and the suggestion of an The result was a 2002 exhibition, n a bloody handprint, upcoming demonstration evident but which has now been refreshed, concen - n a lunar module, much else blacked out. trated and titled, “Next in Line”, for a n a stencil of pickets, “I really wanted the images to have a new generation under surveillance. It n a protest armband, feeling of those days, the external life of was on display earlier this year in New n clowns, those days,” Arny says. York, where Arny now lives. n sketched portrait of Arnold Mesches The worst that happened to Mesches The painted or lifted images bracket - commissioned by the FBI and was the burglary of his studio in 1956. ing the documents, interrupting them, executed by an informant who Two hundred sketches, 100 prints, all

Summer 2015 The Socialist Correspondent 31 Arnold Mesches and his FBI file

his paintings, including several of the Rosenbergs, were robbed, “every piece of work that I could live on.” His file makes no mention of this event and is silent about the six months leading up to and following it. He titled his new exhibition “Next in Line” because sur - veillance is the open secret of this era. Arny worries about the NSA, whose technical ability to sweep up data on billions of people in an instant is different from the old days but with the same aim. His major addition to the earlier work is a fifty-foot canvas clustered with faces, pen-and-ink drawings affixed to the sur - face, some overlapping, in different tones, different styles. The work suggests a police bulletin board assembling evidence of a crime. Arny has said that he used to use anger, but that didn’t in - volve the audience and it didn’t have the same questioning as - pect so he now uses “absurdity”. In his work he has tried “to re-create the sense of utter instability and sheer insanity that he feels has so often permeated his years.”

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32 The Socialist Correspondent Summer 2015