BJP Wins, but Real Winner Is AAP Table of Contents

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Delhi polls 2013: BJP wins, but real winner is AAP Table of contents

AAP wins big in Delhi

Delhi Election Result: AAP office erupts in celebrations 05 Delhi result 2013: close races are testament to AAP’s phenomenal groundwork 06 Will be a strong Opposition, wont ally with Cong, BJP: Kejriwal 07 Analysing the AAP phenomenon

Why Arvind Kejriwal’s supporters swore by him and won 09 Why technology is the wind beneath AAP’s wings 11 AAP has disproved the cynics, but lets not get swept away 13 Story of a home-grown David: How AAP triumphed in Delhi 15

The end of an era: Sheila Dikshit loses to Kejriwal

Sheila Dikshit ki bewaqoofi: The fall of the Lutyens regime 19 Shock and awe after Sheila Dikshit’s crushing loss to Kejriwal 21 Sheila Dikshit’s 15-year tenure ends: All you need to know 22 Kejriwal doesn’t worry me: Why Sheila will have to eat her words 24 By the numbers: Why Kejriwal’s victory over Dikshit is so incredible 25

Harsh Vardhan leads BJP to victory but falls short

Delhi election results: Vardhan thanks Dikshit, congratulates Kejriwal 28 Dr Saab to CM nominee: Meet Vardhan, the man who united BJP in Delhi 29 How the RSS went all out for Harsh Vardhan - but fell short 31 BJP won’t resort to horse-trading to form majority in Delhi, says Harsh Vardhan 33 Will talk only to Modi, want deputy CM post: Delhi’s lone independent MLA 34 Why BJP won’t get any help from AAP in Delhi 35

Copyright © 2012 Firstpost How Delhi’s voters picked their MLAs Delhi election results: Congress decimated in its strongholds 38 Delhi elections spell gloom for dynastic politics 40 Delhi result: NOTA loses, less than 1% used right to reject 41

Beyond Delhi: Lessons for Congress and BJP

Delhi election 2013: Six things AAP has changed in politics 43 Assembly election result: Modi can’t ignore Kejriwal’s AAP anymore 45 Congress will do AAP bigger and better, promises Rahul Gandhi 47 Why Rahul Gandhi’s better-than-you- can-imagine promise fails to enthuse 49 What assembly elections say about Modi and Nehru-Gandhi dynasty 51 Hard lesson of the assembly elections: How Congress can stop Narendra Modi 54 Dear Rahul Gandhi, here’s what you could do to save the Congress 56

It’s Modi’s turn next, say volunteers at teeming office of the AAP in Delhi.

Shruti Dhapola Dec 8, 2013 t's Delhi election result day and the Aam Aadmi Party office is easily home to one of The other big news for the AAP came from I the capital's loudest celebrations. Teeming Seemapuri where deceased AAP candidate San- with people since 7 am on a chilly winter morn- tosh Koli's brother Dharmendra Singh is leading, it now appears that there is no end to the ing by over 11,000 votes. celebrations with the party having clear leads in more than 25 seats. In RK Puram, star AAP candidate Shazia Ilmi is trailing. An AAP worker believes they might just For a party that was formed only in November lose that seat. 2012 and registered with the Election Commis- sion in March this year, its performance has In Malvika Nagar, Congress cabinet member Dr been overwhelming, what everybody including Kiran Walia is losing to AAP candidate Somnath AAP workers and political observers are calling Bharti who is at 13,000 votes followed by BJP a spectacular debut, one that has defied all crit- candidate Aarti Mehra. The Congress is a dis- ics. tant third.

The biggest shouts go up when news filters out "Sheila tai bhag gayi, sister Sheila is gone," one that Arvind Kejriwal has defeated three-time slogan goes up, to be followed soon by another: chief minister Sheila Dikshit in the New Delhi "Sheila ko haraya hai , modi ko harayenge. We constituency by over 10,000 votes. The news is beat Sheila , it's Modi's turn next." confirmed by AAP workers, though the Election Commission website is still to be updated.

Even in the seats that the Aam Aadmi Party lost, it gave the BJP and Congress candidates a spirited run for their money. Shazia Ilmi, AAP candidate from RK Puram lost by a mere 326 votes in the polls.

Shruti Dhapola, Dec 8, 2013

ven in the seats that the Aam Aadmi Vihar, AAP’s Dinesh Mohaniya won by 777 Party lost, it gave the BJP and Congress votes. He got 24,851 votes while rival BJP can- E candidates a spirited run for their mon- didate Shiv Charan Lal Gupta got, 24,074 votes. ey. In Sadar Bazar too, AAP candidate Som Dutt won by a vote margin of 796 votes defeating BJP’s Jai Prakash.

The other constituency which saw a close contest was Rohini where AAP candidate Rajesh Garg defeated BJP’s Jai Bhagwan Agarwal by a margin of 1872 votes. Garg got 47,890 votes while Agarwal got 46,018 votes.

In Delhi Cantt AAP candidate Surender Singh won by a margin of 355 votes. He defeated BJP candidates Karan Singh Tanwar. Surender Singh got 26124 votes while Tanwar got 25,769.

In Sultanpur Majra, Congress’ Jai Kishan won by a margin of 1112 votes. He polled 31,458 Shazia Ilmi, AAP candidate from RK Puram lost votes while rival AAP candidate Sandeep Kumar by a mere 326 votes in the polls. She got 27691 got 30,356 votes. votes and gave her BJP rival Anil Kumar Shar- ma a huge scare, as he scraped through with In Vikaspuri, AAP candidate Mahinder Ya- 28,017 votes. dav has a slim margin of 405 votes, over BJP’s Krishna Gahlot. Gahlot polled 61,627 votes Two constituencies saw AAP candidates win- while Yadav got 62,032 votes till now, and the ning by a margin of over 700 votes. In Sangam counting is still in progess.

“Ordinary people have ensured the defeat of heavyweights,” Aam Admi Party’s Arvind Kejriwal said, addressing thousands of supporters outside the party’s office in New Delhi.

FP Politics, Dec 8, 2013

Ordinary people have ensured the defeat of AAP's outstanding performance in the Delhi heavyweights," Aam Admi Party's Arvind Assembly elections have clearly indicated the " Kejriwal said, addressing thousands of mood of the people, one against rising prices supporters outside the party's office in New and corruption. Delhi. "If parties do not change, then the people will change them... who are we? we are just common people standing for change," he said.

Kejriwal also highlighted various party candidates who defeated three-time MLAs in their strongholds, saying the elections were fought on the plank of honesty.

"We had said we wanted only Rs 20 crore, once we reached that limit, we stopped. Which other party does the same? No where in the world does this happen."

Kejriwal also said asked other elected representatives to serve the people in their constituency, saying that was the basic purpose of politics. Stating that his party was clear that they would not offer or accept support from any political "I don't have personal enemies, if I have hurt party, Kejriwal said he was ready to sit and be a anyone during the campaign, I apologise for it," strong opposition party. he said, adding that his main fight was against corruption and inflation.

While skeptics may have doubted Kejriwal’s ability to take on Dikshit, AAP workers say they have always had full faith in him.

Shruti Dhapola, Dec 8, 2013 ew Delhi: AAP’s Hanuman Road office office, well before the results or numbers had near Connaught Place is an old yel- started coming out. She was steadfast in her N lowing house in the middle of a lane belief that Kejriwal would win. that is sprawling with bungalows and Mercedes cars. But today this quaint little road was jam- Sonkar is a housewife and AAP party worker for packed with AAP workers when the election the last nine months. results were declared. The AAP House itself was She tells us, "Till now I had never voted for any- overflowing with people celebrating, cheering, one. I had no faith in these politicians, but with dancing, and waving AAP’s jhaado as the party AAP it's different. I'm confident that Kejriwal put up a spectacular debut performance in the will win in New Delhi. I've campaigned for AAP Delhi elections. to so many people that even I don't remember."

She was also one of the poll booth managers for AAP at the Gole Market area in New Delhi. When asked if she thinks AAP will form the government, she’s hesitant. “Not so sure about government. But I have full faith ki hamara banda to jeete ga (our guy will win).”

Another person who was confident of Kejriwal’s win is Hamender Ghagat. Ghagat was in-charge of the Gole market zone. He’s never doubted Kejriwal’s win. “I’m hoping for an AAP government. There’s no question of our party going into an alliance with BJP or Congress,” he says.

Why was Ghagat so sure of Kejriwal’s win? The biggest winner of the day was the party’s “When we went to people's homes they told us, leader, Arvind Kejriwal, the man around whom hamara vote toh Arvind ke saath hai, (Our vote AAP has built much of its image. Kejriwal de- is already with Arvind) don’t waste time on us. feated Delhi’s outgoing chief minister Sheila Go and convince other people. Across Delhi, I’ve Dikshit from the New Delhi Constituency, and been in touch with people and I know people a three-time MLA from the seat, by a margin have voted for jhaadu ”, he says. of 25, 864 votes. It was nothing short of David slaying Goliath. As the day progresses and news comes in that AAP is leading in 30 seats, the party office While skeptics may have doubted Kejriwal’s erupts into celebrations. From sweets to waving ability to take on Dikshit, AAP workers say jhaadus, the AAP workers are in no mood to let they have always had full faith in him. Neelam the moment pass by. Sonkar was one of early birds to arrive at the

Copyright © 2012 Firstpost Outside the party office road, holi celebrations “We’ll show BJP what an opposition is supposed begin. Three or four National flags are also to do,” Sharma says. Ask him if AAP could have bought out and waved. A reporter sternly points done better and he says, “Kuch, kuch kami toh out to one of men waving the flags, “Don’t let rahe gayi. We’re not that experienced in poll the jhaadu touch the flag. You could get into booth management. That is one place where we trouble for that.” They promptly correct their were weak. We had lots of people coming from actions and thank her for pointing it out. outside to campaign for us. Since they are not locals, it was tough for them. Plus local people But not all is good. In RK Puram, star AAP are also afraid of big parties. They don’t want to candidate Shazia Ilmi is trailing. An AAP worker get into trouble by managing things for AAP.” believes they might just lose that seat. Since I’m the only one with a tablet, pretty soon I’m flood- “But anyway, it’s an election. First time hai, ed with requests to see how the candidates are we’ll learn as we go,” he says. For now the next doing in each constituency. RK Puram seems to step appears to be opposition in Delhi and Lok be on everyone’s mind. Sabha Elections 2014. Eventually, it’s clear that Shazia has lost the seat By three p.m., it’s evident that Kejriwal has won by a whisker, a mere 326 votes. While celebra- and that AAP has done exceptionally well for tions continue, some point out that Shazia’s a first timer. Manish Goel, who is from Hisar loss should not be mentioned. “Morale kaam ho the same place that Arvind Kejriwal belongs to, jaaye ga,” says someone. has been with the movement since 2011. When asked why he thinks Arvind succeeded, he says, By 2 p.m., it’s clear that AAP the underdog has “He has good people management skills. If he done the un-thinkable. It has decimated the can manage this movement and so many people Congress and given the BJP a run for its money. so well, I’m sure he will manage people in the Chants of “Bhag gayi bhag gayi Sheila tai bhag government too.” gayi” (Sheila tai has run away, run away) and “Sheila ko haraya hai, Modi ko harayenge” I ask him if he thinks the road ahead will be (We’ve defeated Sheila and will beat Modi next) easy for Arvind if he becomes chief minister. are heard at the AAP office. “No, frankly speaking, no. I know it will be very hard for him. You can’t expect Arvind to come In Delhi, it seems AAP is all set to play the role and break the cycle of corruption in one day. He of opposition. DD Sharma, AAP worker has will try and I have full faith in him.” been showing a key and shouting, “Mil gayi, rajneeti ki chaabi mil gayi.” (We’ve got the key It is that faith that has working for Kejriwal to politics.”) No one really knows where the key fits but for now it seems AAP has indeed un- locked the door to political stardom.

Copyright © 2012 Firstpost Why technology is the wind beneath AAP’s wings While AAP’s media and marketing tactics have been analysed to death, their use of technology to reach out and convince new voters has been equally successful.

Pranjal Kshirsagar, Dec 8, 2013

n Delhi's most keenly watched contest, that call will be connected to a random number Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) founder Arvind that is owned by a citizen of Delhi. Once con- I Kejriwal edged past Chief Minister Sheila nected, the volunteer can convince him or her to Dixit in New Delhi assembly constituency, of- support the AAP too. After the call, that number ficials said. will automatically go into a list of used numbers and will never get connected again.

This enabled the AAP to come out with an army of volunteers without much effort or cost. The volunteers too, even those who had time or fi- nancial constraints, could contribute effectively. There are no privacy issues here as the solution makes sure that the volunteer and the receiver of the call both cannot see information about each other.

According to statistics shared by The TechPan- da,

- Aam Aadmi Party is using more than 100 calling channels. So at a given time, above 100 volunteers can simultaneously make the call to While the AAP seemed to have taken the coun- the citizens of Delhi. try by storm this year, there's a little bit of technology that puts wind beneath its wings. Be it - The campaign is live since November 20th the caps or the broom as its election symbol, the and according to the data nearly 5,00,000 calls AAP has always been innovative with its PR and have been done in one week by more than 7,000 marketing strategies. It already has the usual volunteers. social media arsenal with a Facebook page, group, Twitter handle and an Android app. Tak- - Team VoiceTree expects this number to in- ing it a notch higher displaying its collaborative crease to nearly “60,000” calls a day, seeing the thinking and 'of the people, by the people, for intensity of the campaign. the people' attitude, the AAP tied up with cloud telephony services provider VoiceTree. Another highlight of this campaign is that while a call receiver will be someone in Delhi, a volun- What VoiceTree brought in was the capability teer can call from anywhere in the world. This that enabled any random citizen of India be- has gotten many Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) come a volunteer for the party at absolutely no also on the bandwagon. cost. It came up with a solution where a volunteer can call up a toll free number. On calling, In another instance, Kejriwal conducted a

Copyright © 2012 Firstpost Google Hangout video session with Indians liv- From there, volunteers at phone banks in the ing in Singapore to promote the party’s Adopt United States and elsewhere aggregated these a Constituency, in which NRIs could pick an phone numbers into a large electronic database, area in Delhi and help the local campaign team focusing on the phone numbers of undecided reach a fund-raising goal of 1.4 million rupees, voters. This database was then distributed or $22,500. Kejriwal also held Google Hangout through the party’s website, giving each over- question-and-answer sessions with Indians in seas caller a list of names and phone numbers of the United States, Britain, Australia, Belgium people in Delhi. and Germany. “N.R.I. support has been very, very crucial,” said Ankit Lal, the head of information technol- A blog on NY Times explains how AAP milked ogy at AAP. “Such a successful planning and the best of Facebook too. As Aam Aadmi mem- implementation for the campaign would not bers visited households in Delhi, they used have been possible without N.R.I.’s. They have a smartphones to photograph the phone numbers different level of expertise.” and emails they acquired from Delhi residents who were undecided or voting for another party. Pushing AAP from being an underdog to Then these campaign volunteers posted the a game-changer, technology has definitely phone numbers onto the Facebook group. changed how political campaigns work.

As more statistics roll in, I cannot help but feel a little less cynical about the voters of Delhi.

G Khamba, Dec 9, 2013

ike a lot of other people in Delhi, I didn’t cynical. Yesterday however, magic happened. think Arvind Kejriwal had a shot in hell. L I was watching news channels monitor elec- It’s not that the anti-corruption message didn’t tion results coming in from Rajasthan, Madhya resonate, I just thought fasting was not the an- Pradesh, Chhatisgarh and Delhi, and Delhi was swer to every problem. the most exciting of the four because the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) had made a bid for the capi- Maybe it came from my discomfort at how tal, much like Alok Nath asking an industrialist Kejriwal caught our attention — by idolising for his daughter’s hand for his poor son. someone who got people flogged for drinking in his village, sharing a stage with the likes of The hired dholwala left the Congress headquar- ponytailed manager who has no sense of irony ters by 9am (referred to as an early trend) and — somewhere along the way, I became deeply soon it was clear that the state would be split

Copyright © 2012 Firstpost between the BJP and AAP. It was then that we applause-worthy is a “victory for South Asia”. were treated to the clown circus called 'panel discussion'. By this time, Arvind Kejriwal’s was leading against Sheila Dixit by over 10,000 votes and I feel bad for political party representatives on soon even the most pro Congress panelists were election-result day because they have to defend asking Dixit to stop defending Rahul Gandhi. the party line even in face of loss, rather than But I suppose one cannot afford to lose one’s speak honestly. BJP representatives have it easy job in such a tight economy. It must also hurt because all they have to do is trip over each to be schooled on changing the political system other saying, “MODI IS GREAT MODI IS AWE- by an AAP representative who uses words like SOME MODI IS HE-MAN MODI IS ARNOLD “wanna” and is wearing a cap made famous by SCHWARZENEGGER MODI MODI MODI!” one of the Congress party’s icons.

If you started downing tequila, sorry, aam ras I just hope news channels gave them a tube of shots every time someone said “Modi effect”, Vicco Turmeric their way out. it’d take you five minutes to start slurring. Still, As more statistics roll in, I cannot help but feel a it was nice to see Rajiv Pratap Rudy smile in- little less cynical about the voters of Delhi. stead of his usual look of suffering from acute gastroenteritis. This is an excellent start (and for now, that is all that is). The fact that the party managed Congress representatives like Jayanti Natarajan, to prove a lot of us wrong is truly exceptional. however, had to resort to platitudes like “We Maybe there is still a place for idealism in In- accept this verdict with humility”, as if they had dian politics. Now if only they’d stop dancing a choice. My personal favourite: “It was a vic- around with brooms because really, they don’t tory for democracy.” Victory for democracy after look cool. They just look like tantricks playing losing an election is like Pakistanis’ trying to quidditch. take credit by saying an Indian doing something

Big party apathy and pride caught the BJP and Congress off guard as AAP beat all expectations with innovative methods

Vivek Kaul, Dec 9, 2013 ne of the fundamental rules of fore- music rights that it owned. casting is to make as many forecasts O as possible and then publicise the ones When it comes to low cost airlines Southwest you get right. On August 4, 2012, I wrote a piece Airlines first woke up to the opportunity. None on Firstpost in which I compared what would of the bigger players in the market like Pan become the Aam Aadmi Party(AAP) to a disrup- American, British Airways, Lufthansa, Delta etc, tive innovation. saw the opportunity at that point of time. Even in an Indian case, a rank outsider Indigo has The term disruptive innovation was coined by captured the low cost market, instead of in- Clayton Christensen, a professor of strategy at cumbents like Air India and Jet Airways, which Harvard Business School. He defines it as “in- continue to make huge losses. novations that transform an existing market or create a new one by introducing simplicity, There are scores of such examples in business, convenience, accessibility and affordability. It where the biggest player(or players) in the mar- is initially formed in a narrow foothold market ket has been rattled by a new player. AAP is a that appears unattractive or inconsequential to similar disruptive innovator. In the August 2012 industry incumbents.” piece, I had said that what “works to the advantage of disruptive innovators is the fact that the A great example of a disruptive innovation is major players in the market ignore them initial- Micromax. Micromax and a host of other Indian ly and do not take them as a big enough force phone makers built up a significant presence in that deserves attention.” the smartphone market, while the biggest player Nokia was busy elsewhere. And this works to the advantage of the disruptive innovator, which can quietly keep doing its Bharti Beetel, which produced India's first land- thing. The bigger player is not interested be- line phones which had buttons on them, did not cause the market that the disruptive innovator wake to the opportunity of the mobile phone is catering to is too small for them to take seri- market. This despite the fact that its sister com- ously. pany Airtel was India's biggest mobile phone service provider. Take the case of smartphones. Smartphones have been around since the late 1990s, but they RCA, America’s leading radio company, did not only took off in the last few years. Hence, Nokia see the rise of battery powered pocket transis- never got around to take them very seriously. tors which were first made by Sony in 1955. Sony changed the way the world heard music by When Sony first launched pocket transistors launching the Walkman and the CD player. But they catered primarily to teenagers. This led to it handed over the digital music player market RCA ignoring the market, because the bigger on a platter to Apple and other companies. Sony market was elsewhere. Apple's first personal did not capture the mp3 player market because computers were targeted towards the youth, it feared that it would play havoc with all the leading to the existing players who manufac-

Copyright © 2012 Firstpost tured minicomputers ignoring the market com- go with the doctor.” pletely. The only possible explanation for this change Along similar lines, the Bhartiya Janata Party is the fact that the BJP came to realise, slightly and the Congress, looked at AAP as a party late in the day, that the AAP was no pusho- which catered to the frustrations of the middle ver. Hence, it had to project a chief ministerial class. And given that the middle class in this candidate with a clean image. And this got Dr country does not care to vote, the existing politi- Harsh Vardhan into the picture. cal parties felt that there was no point in paying attention to what the AAP was upto. The fact that it wasn't taken seriously by its opponents allowed the AAP to go about building itself right from scratch in Delhi. The results suggest that what the AAP has managed to do in the span of a little over a year is unprecedented. No other political party established from scratch has ever won the number of seats that it has, since independence, in its very first election.

On various discussions that happened across television channels yesterday political analysts brought up the example of NT Rama Rao.

NT Rama Rao stormed to power by winning the January 1983 assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh. His Telegu Desam Party won 199 out of the 294 assembly seats. In comparison, AAP's performance looks pale. But its worth remem- In fact, Sheila Dikshit, the chief minister of bering here that NT Rama Rao was the biggest Delhi for the last 15 years said so in several Telgu film-star at that point of time. He may interviews. have been contesting elections for the first time, but everyone in Andhra Pradesh knew who he In an interview to the Open magazine published was. And given how crazy Andhra Pradesh was in early November, Dikshit said that “he(i.e. and continues to be about cinema, NTR did not Arvind Kejriwal, the National Convener of the have to start right from the start like AAP did in AAP) is not even on our radar.” Delhi.

In a rally without referring to Kejriwal, she Some others also compared AAP's success to the even called him ‘barsaat ka keeda’. In another defeat that Mamata Banerjee handed out to the interview to Tehelka, Dikshit said, “My reaction Left Front in West Bengal in 2011. While what to the Aam Aadmi Party is nothing..absolutely Mamata did was huge, it is worth remember- nothing.” By the time Congress woke up to the ing that it took her almost three decades to do threat from the AAP, it reacted the only way that. And when she moved out of the Congress it could, by ordering a probe into the foreign Party to form the Trinamool Congress, a large funding sources of the party. section of the Congress Party moved with her. This meant that there was some sort of organi- The Bhartiya Janata Party also woke up around sation that was present at the ground level when mid October, six weeks before the election, Mamata seriously thought of taking on the Left and decided to project Dr Harsh Vardhan as its parties on her own. Delhi chief ministerial candidate. As the India Today reported on the issue, “Highly-placed When the success of AAP is looked at with these sources in the BJP have told indiatoday.in that factors in mind, it really is unprecedented. the party wanted to go into the elections with a leader who had a clean image and that made it Another point that comes out here is what mar-

Copyright © 2012 Firstpost keting gurus Al and Laura Ries make in their the last sixty to hundred years, in a period of book The Fall of Advertising and the Rise of PR. one year? In the last few decades the biggest brands have been made through public relations and not The party did this and a lot more. through advertising. It raised money directly from people, something As Al Ries told me in a October 2008 inter- that has been unheard of in Indian politics. The view that I did for the Daily News and Analysis party also innovated when it came to reaching (DNA) “Almost all of the recent brand successes out to people, something expected from a dis- have been public relations (PR) successes, not ruptive innovator. It organised small mohalla advertising successes...In its first 10 years, sabhas attended by a few hundred people at a Starbucks spent less than $10 million (total) on time, all across Delhi. Of course, existing po- advertising which is a small amount in a coun- litical parties used to large rallies, did not see try of 300 million people. The Body Shop has much worth in organising events where at best a never advertised. Yet recently, L'Oreal paid $1.1 few hundred people turned up. billion to buy the company...Red Bull today is a worldwide brand with $3.3 billion in annual The AAP also used social media very effectively sales, yet the company does little advertising. when it came to drumming up support, some- Same is true about Google, Facebook, Twitter, thing no one other than Narendra Modi, has which are now some of the biggest brands in the tried to do. world.” The question is will the AAP be able to replicate In fact, the success of AAP is a very good exam- its success in Delhi through other parts of the ple of the same. The party did not have enough country? The answer is not simple. The incum- money to go through the conventional route of bent politicians would like to believe that it will advertising on television and in newspapers. be very difficult for the AAP to play the game of They came up with innovative ways of adver- caste so important in large parts of the country. tising which did not need a lot of money, like getting their volunteers to stand with banners But what should give them hope is the fact that of the party at strategic traffic points. They also the larger political parties are still not taking advertised on autorickshaws, which was a cheap them seriously. A senior BJP leader said on and effective way of reaching a large number of NDTV India yesterday that comparing BJP with people. AAP was like comparing “Raja Bhoj with Gangu Teli”. Another BJP leader challenged them to In fact, they got spectacular coverage in the win even a single seat out of the 48 Lok Sabha media by exposing corruption in business and seats in Maharasthra. crony capitalism. Arvind Kejriwal and the AAP were on the front pages of newspapers all over This tells us that the incumbent politicians are the country, for fairly long periods of time, over still not taking AAP seriously and feel that they the last one year. In the end, this strategy was will find it difficult to replicate their success out- overused, businessmen cracked the whip and fi- side Delhi. How successful AAP is outside Delhi, nally a large section of the media stopped cover- only time will tell us. ing there exposures. The door to door campaign in Delhi that it carried out was also a spectacu- To conclude, AAP's spectacular debut in Indian lar public relations exercise. democracy was best summarised by anchor Punya Prasun Bapai on Aaj Tak yesterday, when As I said earlier, the big boys never really took he said “Jhadu, Tiranga Ke Saath Lehra Raha the AAP seriously. They asked all the practical Hai”. questions. Where would the AAP raise all the money to fight an election? How would they be Vivek Kaul is a writer. He tweets @kaul_vivek able to put an effective organisation in place, in such a short period of time? How would they manage to achieve all that we have achieved in

Middle class Delhites are no longer impressed by a politician’s ‘convent’ accent, or her understated polish of class. Age-old infatuation with status has given way to impatience, even resentment.

Lakshmi Chaudhry, Dec 9, 2013

ewakoof hain na hum," snapped a weary shit dismissed Arvind Kejriwal with typical Sheila Dikshit when asked if she under- upper class condescension. “My reaction to the B estimated the Aam Aadmi Party. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is nothing,” she told quote unwittingly summed up the cluelessness Tehelka, “Absolutely nothing.” It was the kind of Delhi's political elite of which Dikshit was a of hauteur only a politician of Dikshit's pedigree leading light. More than the Congress party's could summon. The daughter-in-law of Uma decimated numbers, it is the former Chief Min- Shanker Dikshit, who was brought into politics ister's personal fate that tells the bigger story. by Rajiv Gandhi and kept close at hand by So- nia, was a card-carrying member of the Lutyen's In the months leading up to the election, Dik- elite. And in a city that worships privilege, she

Copyright © 2012 Firstpost was its citizen number one. Lutyen matriarch. Her refusal to engage with him read not as a dismissal of AAP but of the "Mrs Sheila Dikshit is far more difficult to aam aadmis and aurats he represented. defeat than her party, Congress, because she is still the person every Delhiwallah would be Worse, Dikshit was also betrayed by her own; happy to welcome home as a guest, and then her fellow upper class liberals who preferred brag about it," wrote MJ Akbar in the Times the genuine populism of a Kejriwal to the jaded of India. And yet defeated she was because the Congress-style rhetoric of noblesse oblige. average Delhite-- including the residents of elite Hence her shocking defeat in the heart of Del- New Delhi constituency -- has changed. hi's most expensive real estate. It is the Con- gress loyalists who deserted Dikshit, and proved Middle class Delhites are no longer impressed her and her party's undoing -- even as most BJP by a politician's 'convent' accent, or her under- supporters stayed true to their own. BJP's wise stated polish of class. Age-old infatuation with last-minute decision to change horses, and bet status has given way to impatience, even resent- on the modest Doctor saab, likely saved them ment. As with the Gandhis, 'elite' in politics from losing ground to Kejriwal. A compromised, reads increasingly as out-of-touch, and can be old style politician like Vijay Goel would have more easily be interpreted as downright callous. guaranteed an AAP victory. When she loftily refused to take responsibility for law and order in the wake of the Delhi Talking heads on TV may natter on about the gang-rape, saying “My own daughter is unsafe," return of the Sonia coterie, but the real message Dikshit's insincerity enraged all the average from Delhi is that durbar-style politics and all Delhiwallahs who live underfoot Delhi's lal- those associated with it are now in great peril. batti culture. Her bizarre passivity in the face of In 'new' India, entrenched privilege in Indian escalating prices confirmed the CM's image as politics can still be an advantage, but the right LBZ's resident Marie Antionette. 'Let them ride opponent can just as easily transform it into a the metro,' she seemed to say, anytime someone fatal weakness. We no longer want a leader who complained about bijli or pyaaz. can "give adequate voice to man on street," as Rahul Gandhi seems to believe. We much prefer And it is Dikshit's bad luck that she landed as a leader who is the man on the street. Kejriwal a rival the one man who would underline her taught Sheila Dixit that bitter lesson on Sunday. privilege. Everything about Arvind Kejriwal — No doubt, Narendra Modi is looking forward to from his Amol Palekar demeanor to the name of doing the same in 2014. As he well knows, there his party to its lowly jhaadu symbol — screamed is no one better equipped to bring down India's plebeian with a capital P. In contrast, he made ruling dynasty than a former chaiwala. Dikshit look less unfussy librarian and more

Not too long after counting began on Sunday morning, the impending doom and gloom became evident.

Pallavi Polanki, Dec 8, 2013

hree-time chief minister and one-time support. darling of the middle class who refused T to even acknowledge Arvind Kejriwal as Asked whether she had failed to read the mood, a challenger was handed a humiliating defeat at Dikshit remarked sarcastically, "Bewakoof hai the hands the rank newcomer. na hum. (We are fools aren't we?) "

Not too long after counting began on Sunday morning, the impending doom and gloom became evident with the Congress's tally strug- gling to move beyond single digits.

Dikshit's lead in her home base of New Delhi was short-lived. And hope quickly evaporated as Kejriwal's margin of lead grew from 4000 to 7000 before the election was called in Kejriwal's favour who won by a massive margin of over 25,000 votes.

There was stunned silence at Dikshit's Moti Lal Nehru marg residence. A visibly upset and disappointed Sheila Dik- shit emerged from her residence where she Dejected party-workers were lost for words, remained holed up all morning to make a brief some of them blaming "price-rise" and the statement to the media shortly before 1 pm. "youth-support for Kejriwal" for shock defeat. Refusing to take questions, Dikshit accepted The residence remains deserted with only defeat and thanked the people of Delhi for their friends and family permitted inside to meet her.

The highs and lows of her 15 year tenure

FP Staff, Dec 8, 2013 n 2003, on a twin plank of governance her father-in-law's work. Gandhi nominated and development, Sheila Dikshit, then 65, Sheila as a member of the Indian delegation to I became the first Delhi Chief Minister to get the UN Commission on the status of women. a second successive term. She won with a two- thirds majority even as Congress governments She was elected as an MP from Kannauj in Uttar in three other states were shown the door on an Pradesh in 1984 and became a minister in Rajiv anti-incumbency wave. Gandhi's government between 1986 and 1989. It was only upon her marriage into the family of former Union Minister Uma Shankar Dikshit In 1998, she was appointed president of the that she was exposed to politics. (She married Delhi Pradesh Congress Committee (DPCC), be- Dikshit's son Vinod, an IAS officer.) ing given charge of a party that was riven by fac- tionalism with just six months to go for Assem- Her first big assignment came when Indira Gan- bly polls. Nudged along by an anti-incumbency dhi began to notice her while she was handling wave against the BJP government owing to a

Copyright © 2012 Firstpost serious onion crisis in Delhi, Sheila's Congress does not control the police. won 52 out of 70 seats that year. And then she didn't cover herself in glory when Good governance and infrastructure develop- she ventured to say that women in Delhi should ment have remained Sheila Dikshit's keywords not venture out after 8 pm. throughout the three terms she has enjoyed since. A Wall Street Journal profile of Sheila quotes Sidharth Mishra, author of “Capital Phenom- A big plank for her next election would be the enon,” a book about Delhi, as saying Dikshit introduction of the bhagidari (partnership) gave subordinates “functional autonomy”. Her system with residents' associations of Delhi in other big asset has been her networking with governnace decisions. The bhagidari system the legislative party. “Her main strength is her helped set right several Delhi ills -- pollution, legislators, who she knows have good local con- encroachments, traffic chaos and more. A va- nections,” Mishra is quoted as saying. riety of social welfare schemes focusing on pension for marginalised groups, an improved From the Delhi Metro to a string of flyovers and Public Distribution System are also among her from a brand new public transport system to ac- achievements. cepting that the BRTS simply does not work for Delhi, she has put Delhi firmly on the global cit- The big downers in recent years -- the 2010 ies map. If India's growth rate is 8.33 percent, Commonwealth Games corrruption scam, and Delhi's has been 10.33 percent. the December 16 gangrape in Delhi and the outrage subsequently. In the case of the former, On Sunday, however, the much-loved CM lost Sheila insisted that nothing has been proved, what was a chance to make history with a record and in the latter she threw her hands up saying fourth term. law and order was not in her hands and that she

Sheila Dikshit has always had a rather low opinion of AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal but that might change. Here are five things she had said about Kejriwal in the past.

FP Politics, Dec 8, 2013

fter winning the New Delhi seat for Here are five things Dikshit had said about the three terms, Sheila Dikshit was convinc- AAP convenor who defeated her today: A ingly defeated by AAP's Arvind Kejriwal today in perhaps the biggest upset in the elec- "His entry into New Delhi does not worry me... tions across the four states. I don't want to comment on his campaign. My campaign is reflected in my style of work. I believe in one-on-one meetings and have been doing this continuously," Dikshit to CNN-IBN on 4 June.

"The common man doesn't believe in what Ke- jriwal is talking about," Dikshit on 28 June. "It’s a phenomenon. It might carry on; it may just vanish," Dikshit to Reuters on 30 October.

"Ask Opposition not to target us on corruption. I would want to ask them to give us details of where the corruption is and not talk without evidence," Dikshit to Times of India on 14 Octo- ber . Sheila Dikshit has never had kind things to say about her opponent since he decided to The person who came with a very clean image contest against her and pit his party against now has a darkened image. That’s all I can say,” the Congress in the party. Whether that will Dikshit said after sting operation on AAP that change remains to be seen, but she's going to be alleged corruption in the party. a lot more wary of him if they're ever in pitted against each other again.

Kejriwal beat Dikshit by a whopping 25864 votes, a margin of defeat that the Congress leader herself has been unable to hand opponents.

FP Politics, Dec 9, 2013

No one would have given Aam Aadmi Party convenor Arvind Kejriwal an outside chance against Sheila Dikshit about a year ago. However, the AAP leader is now going to go down in history as a leader who handed the three-time Delhi Chief Minister one of the most humiliating losses in her political career.

Kejriwal beat Dikshit by a whopping 25864 votes, a margin of defeat that the Congress leader herself has been unable to hand opponents over the years that she has contested Delhi Assembly elections.

In 1998, Sheila Dikshit beat the BJP candidate Kirti Azad by over 5,600 votes. 1998

In 2008, she improved her tally to improve her victory margin even more to over 13,000 votes.

BJP’s chief ministerial candidate Harsh Vardhan on Sunday thanked voters for giving the party the maximum number of seats in 70-member Delhi assembly.

PTI, Dec 8, 2013

ew Delhi: BJP's chief ministerial can- of AAP and outgoing CM Sheila Dikshit, who is didate Harsh Vardhan on Sunday likely to lose her New Delhi seat. N thanked voters for giving the party the maximum number of seats in 70-member Delhi "I will congratulate Kejriwal on the good show assembly. of his party against expectations. I will also offer "I am confident that we will be able to serve the my thanks to Dikshit for serving Delhi for 15 people of Delhi," he said, declining to take ques- years," he said. tions about the formation of next government as the party looked short of majority in the assem- He expressed happiness over his resounding bly. victory from Krishna Nagar constituency and said he was thankful to people for electing him Vardhan extended his wishes to Arvind Kejriwal with a whopping margin of over 43,150 votes.

Harsh Vardhan, anointed BJP’s Chief Ministerial nominee less than a month before the Delhi Assembly polls after a bitter internal squabble, steadfastly united various factions to bring enthusiasm among workers to keep the party on course to regain power from Congress after 15 years.

PTI, Dec 8, 2013

ew Delhi: Harsh Vardhan, anointed the 1998, 2003 and 2008 assembly elections. BJP's Chief Ministerial nominee less Fondly called "Doctor Saab" by supporters and N than a month before the Delhi As- opponents alike, Vardhan is known for his ef- sembly polls after a bitter internal squabble, forts in eradicating polio in Delhi when he was steadfastly united various factions to bring the Health Minister. He is known to share a enthusiasm among workers to keep the party on very cordial relationship with RSS and people course to regain power from Congress after 15 close to him say he still retains the Swayamse- years.An RSS member since his younger days, vak's tendency to downplay the "Swayam" (self) 59-year-old Vardhan, a practicing ENT surgeon giving precedence to "Seva" (service). known for his disarming simplicity, sucessfully connected with the voters while leading a high- Senior Delhi BJP leaders said his anointment to voltage campaign from the front despite under- the top post has helped the party give a tough currents of friction in the Delhi party unit. fight to both the greenhorn Aam Admi Party and Congress. In the campaigning, Vardhan attacked the Congress on range of issues including price rise, corruption, rising power tariff, scarcity of water, unemployment and promised to offer a clean government besides promising to slash by 30 percent the power tariff, an emo- tive issue for Delhiites.

During his Ministership in the Delhi government (1993-98), people had found him remark- ably accessible and officials respected him for his hands-on style of functioning. "He joined politics with the laudable objective of using his considerable medical knowledge and experience for serving the common man," former Prime People close to him said Vardhan's easy-going Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had said once attitude and disarming smile were his greatest about Vardhan. assets because of which the party drew support from various quarters, some of them unexpect- Apart from being an effective minister, he also ed. proved his organisational capabilities by rebuilding the BJP's operations in Delhi, virtu- Vardhan had entered the political fray in 1993 ally from scratch, after the party's defeat in the when he successfully contested the Assembly 2003 Assembly Election. In late 2003, he was polls from Krishna Nagar constituency in East appointed as president pf Delhi BJP. He is cred- Delhi in 1993. He went on to retain the seat in ited with rebuilding the party at the grassroot

Copyright © 2012 Firstpost level after the party's defeat in the assembly visited various states to persuade the health polls that year. ministers to cooperate in making the country polio free. He is also credited with bringing the In April 2007, the party recaptured power in the Delhi Prohibition of smoking and non smokers Municipal Corporation of Delhi and in 2008, health protection bill. Soon, many states fol- the party emerged victorious in the Delhi Can- lowed Delhi's example, culminating in a Central tonment Board election under his leadership. legislation banning smoking in public places in Vardhan, known for his simplicity and amiable 2002. The World Health Organisation, recog- leadership style, is admired by many leaders nising his contribution, had awarded him the belonging to various political parties. Recognis- Director-General's Commendation Medal in ing his leadership qualities, Vardhan, who hails May, 1998. from Baniya community, was given president- ship of Delhi BJP for three terms between 2003 In December 2004, Vardhan had come out and 2008. Vardhan managed to bring enthu- with his own account on how he conceived and siasm among grass root workers whose morale implemented the Pulse Polio programme. The had taken a beating following party's image of book, titled - A Tale of Two Drops -- was re- a "divided house" when Goel openly staked his leased by Atal Bihari Vajpayee. claim for the post. Born on December 13, 1954, Married to Nutan, a specialist in hospital ad- he had done his schooling from the Anglo-San- ministration who preferred to be a homemaker, skrit Victoria Jubilee Senior Secondary School Vardhan has two sons and a daughter. Vardhan in Daryaganj in central Delhi. is also involved in promoting ideologies of Shya- ma Prasad Mookherjee, the founder of the Jan Later, he did his MBBS and specialisation in Sangh, and Deen Dayal Upadhyay. As secretary ENT from GSVM Medical College in Kanpur. of the Shyama Prasad Mukherjee Foundation, As a Health Minister, he had launched the polio he has taken up projects to assemble the col- eradication initiative in Delhi in October, 1994. lected works of Mukerjee, to restore his house Taking cue from the success of the programme, in Kolkata and to promote research in topics of the Union Health Ministry adopted the same as national importance. a national programme later. He had also

The RSS in Delhi pulled out all the stops to make Harsh Vardhan the CM, but its efforts underestimated the Aam Aadmi Party wave.

Arun Anand, Dec 8, 2013

he Bharatiya Janata Party should prob- Harsh Vardhan's name was announced as the ably thank its ideological patron - the BJP’s CM candidate. Thus began a quiet op- T Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh - in Delhi eration in the second week of November. The for not bearing the complete brunt of the Aam organisation identified 1,700 “bastis”(habitats) Aadmi Party (AAP). It was a massive grassroots- in the city comprising around 4,500 polling level operation in typical RSS style which helped booths where it had a strong presence. There the BJP salvage the situation during the last 10 are around 12,000 polling booths in Delhi. days of campaigning. The RSS had set up 1,700 teams to cover each of the polling booths within a span of 10 days. Each team comprised two to three RSS functionaries. These polling booths were spread across Delhi. They were supposed to cover it within a span of 10 days. The teams carried out their “mass contact” programme till 3 Decem- ber, a day prior to the polls.

The members of the teams were carefully select- ed and comprised local RSS functionaries who knew the area well and the residents too. They provided continuous feedback about the situation at ground zero to their senior functionaries who in turn communicated to the BJP leaders. In fact, while a number of BJP leaders had been dismissive of the AAP in a fortnight before polls The mandate of the teams was clear: “Visit and not taking the threat to the BJP’s bastions every home in the area assigned and urge them seriously enough, the RSS had read the writing to vote for a nationalistic and patriotic party.” on the wall to some extent, though not fully. It is interesting to note that these teams did not One of the prime reasons why the RSS worked openly ask the people to vote for the BJP. The so actively for BJP was because it had become a message was subtly conveyed though. prestige issue for the Sangh. Dr Harsh Vardhan was the RSS's choice. The RSS's Delhi State “Parachar Pramukh,” Rajiv Tuli, said: “The Sarsanghachalak (RSS Resistance within the BJP about going to the chief Mohan Bhagwat) had said this year in his polls with a CM nominee was vetoed by the RSS address on Vijayadashami that swayamsevaks as it pushed Harsh Vardhan’s name as the one should urge the people to come out and vote in and the only choice. large numbers. That is why our swayamsevaks urged the people to come out and vote. We To ensure that its choice was not proven wrong, wanted to ensure 100 per cent vote. ” the Delhi RSS swung into action as soon as

Copyright © 2012 Firstpost Tuli further added: “We urged the people to favourite seats. RSS functionaries across the city vote for a patriotic and nationalistic party and ran a parallel network about which even some make the right choice.” While visiting these BJP candidates had no clue. Thus many BJP families, the RSS did not distribute any litera- supporters were brought out from their homes ture. The teams just held informal conversa- to vote. tions. They were also able to gauge the general The RSS can take solace from the fact that it mood, but, as a senior RSS functionary admit- helped the BJP to emerge as the single largest ted, “We could sense a strong anti-Congress party in Delhi, but the results also indicate that sentiment and an undercurrent for AAP but despite the might of the RSS, the BJP has strug- frankly even we could not gauge the extent of gled to reach the half-way mark. That could be a support for AAP.” cause of worry for not only the BJP but also for the RSS! However, a cautious RSS had activated its network on polling day, especially as reports start- (Arun Anand is a senior journalist and tracks ed coming in during the early hours of polling RSS and BJP) that AAP was making a strong dent in the BJP’s

The hung verdict in Delhi Assembly polls has raised intriguing questions about government formation in the national capital. With 31 seats, BJP emerged as the single largest party but is still short of the majority mark of 36 in the 70-member Assembly.

FP Staff, Dec 8, 2013

he hung verdict in Delhi Assembly polls Meanwhile, Delhi BJP President Vijay Goel said has raised intriguing questions about the party will not resort to any unfair means to T government formation in the national reach the magic figure of 36 and prefer to sit in capital. With 31 seats, BJP emerged as the sin- the Opposition. "We will not resort to any unfair gle largest party but is still short of the majority means to get support of the required number mark of 36 in the 70-member Assembly. The of MLAs. The people of Delhi have given the second largest party is the newbie Aam Admi verdict and we respect it. We will prefer to sit in Party with 28 followed by Congress with 8 seats. opposition rather than forming a government One seat each has gone to an Independent, through horse trading," Goel said. JD(U) and Akali Dal, which is an ally of BJP. Former BJP President and incharge of Delhi The options for BJP are to either stake claim to Nitin Gadkari said, "We will form government form the government or wait for Lt Governor if we get support in natural process. Otherwise Najeeb Jung to invite its leader Harsh Vardhan we would like to sit in Opposition." If there is to do so as leader of the single largest party. no way out of the impasse, there may be a spell However, the catch is that the Lt Governor is of the Lt Governor's rule for a maximum of six likely to ask a BJP government, so invited, to months in one go which could be extended up to prove its majority in the house within a speci- one year. fied time. Given the composition of the House, it is unlikely that BJP would be able to prove its Talking about various options, a Constitutional majority unless there are defections from the expert said a lot would depend upon the dis- Congress or AAP which may not happen. cretion of Lt Governor and whom he invites to form the government. In an interview with NDTV, Harsh Vardhan said the party will not coax or resort to any horse- Another expert, S K Sharma, former Director trading to form a majority in New Delhi. While of Lok Sabha Secretariat, said in most likeli- Vardhan admitted that the BJP underestimated hood the Lt Governor will invite the single the support Aaam Aadmi Party was enjoying largest party to form the government and give in the capital, he reiterated that he will not use it a chance to prove majority on the floor of the unfair means to get support for a majority. House. "The Supreme Court in the S R Bommai case had ruled that the House is the appropri- " I am in a helpless situation. Since I do not ate forum for proving the strength of any ruling have 36 seats, I cannot be part of any govern- party," Sharma said. ment formation in Delhi... I do not know what will happen," he added.

With the Delhi elections giving both the BJP and AAP a mandate just short of a clear majority, the political kingmaker in the elections is now the lone independent candidate - Rambir Shokeen.

FP Staff, Dec 9, 2013

fter the Delhi electorate gave both the dka constituency admits he is a big fan of BJP's BJP and AAP a mandate just short of a PM candidate Narendra Modi. A clear majority, the political kingmaker in the national capital could now be lone inde- "I am not in talks with BJP or any other party pendent elected representative - Rambir Sho- yet. But if Modi asks me, then I will talk to the keen. BJP. I am a huge fan of Modi," Shokeen told CNN-IBN.

And what post does Shokeen want?

"The only condition of joining the BJP is the post of deputy CM, I don't want anything to else. If Modi offers me the post of deputy CM in Delhi, then I will join BJP." Shokeen said he will go back to his people and ask them which party he should join - BJP or AAP.

"Whoever they like and feel they can trust, I will join that party," he said.

While BJP sources have said that he also had an But Shokeen comes with a set of conditions. additional demand, that Vijay Goel be made the While he denies having spoken to any party yet, Chief Minister, Shokeen says "he will see what the new elected representative from the Mun- happens."

Perhaps smarting from not winning Delhi outright, BJP leaders took to denigrating their latest challenger, suggesting AAP was unfit for governance.

FP Politics, Dec 9, 2013

he assembly elections were supposed to The triumphant wave at AAP headquarters has end in a 4-0 sweep for the BJP but some- also given the party the impetus it was look- T one forgot to tell the Aam Aadmi party ing for to take the plunge into national politics, about it. Founded just over a year ago, AAP which appears to have ruffled the BJP’s feathers made a barnstorming debut in Delhi, winning even more. Perhaps smarting from not winning 28 seats and preventing the BJP, which got 32 Delhi outright, BJP leaders took to denigrating seats, from gaining an outright majority. their latest challenger, suggesting AAP was unfit for governance and that it would be swept aside by Modi-mania in the 2014 Lok Sabha

During a discussion on NDTV, a BJP representative warned the AAP about showing humility and of the consequences of the coming of Modi.

"The anti-Congress mandate is clear," he said. “All surveys have showed Narendra Modi is way ahead of Arvind Kejriwal as a preferred Prime Ministerial candidate. So if AAP doesn't respect that, the people will reject them. What they do - the wire cutting gimmicks - is exciting, but it isn't governance.”

AAP’s success also put a crimp in the premise It was a sentiment that would be echoed by Ravi that a BJP wave is sweeping the nation. While Shankar Prasad on CNN-IBN, when he said In- the BJP rolled to power in Rajasthan, boosted dia is yearning for a change and that those peo- its majority in Madhya Pradesh, and edged ple who have voted for AAP in Delhi would vote ahead in Chhattishgarh, it was essentially a two- for Narendra Modi in the national elections. horse race between it and the Congress in those three states. Even a seasoned politician like Arun Jaitley felt the need to criticise the AAP after the party In Delhi however, voters were presented with a refused to join hands with either the Congress third alternative and a sustantial number picked of the BJP in Delhi. the newest kid on the block. Perhaps the biggest surprise of the day was Arvind Kejriwal, "You're an insider already and you're still posi- the founder and face of AAP, thumping three- tioning yourself as an outsider,” Jaitley said on time Delhi chief minister Sheila Dikshit by over NDTV. 25,000 votes. “What does that even mean? It means that you

Copyright © 2012 Firstpost are embarrassed to be a part of a government Yogendra Yadav then smartly turned the tables from the fear of being criticized. What kind of on Jaitley. "Actually, I can throw the sugges- politics is that?" tion back to Mr Jaitley. Why doesn't BJP ally with Congress and lead the government? If they Jaitley, who comes from the traditional para- can say, 'how can we do it', why can't we say the digm of politic insisted that parties need to take same too? People who have voted for us have pragmatic decisions and cannot be motivated by done so because they are wary of the same cor- idealism. He, and other BJP leaders, also sug- rupt political traditions. We can't do some back gested that the AAP’s desire to sit in the opposi- door deal with any of them," he said. . tion represented a shirking of responsibility and Jaitley and others also argued that the AAP was showed they coud not be taken seriously. not equipped to govern, saying it was easy to point fingers but much harder to actually lead However, Prashant Bhushan of the AAP rub- and that if AAP did actually have to govern, the bished these arguments. party would be found out.

"We are not just an alternative political party,” Once again Yogendra Yadav would not be he said. “We are trying to give the country an drawn in to a mud slinging argument. Instead, alternative brand of politics. How can we gang he simply pointed out how the BJP and the up with the same people, whose politics we have Congress had been wrong about the APP from condemned? People are fed up of the duplicity the beginning. and communalism of the BJP and Congress, hence they voted for us." “At first you said we'll fail if we formed a party. They you said we'll fail if we contest the polls. He was backed up by Yogendra Yadav, who as Now you're saying we'll not last long enough," usual spoke in measured tones. Yadav pointed he pointed out. out that the only possible way of 'cleansing' Delhi of he traditional form politics practised by While Harsh Vardan, the BJP’s chief ministe- the BJP and the Congress was to win an out- rial candidate for Delhi admitted the party had right majority. underestimated the AAP, it seems like the BJP’s central leadership is determined to keep under- Failing that, the party had no option but to take estimating this upstart. Whether the BJP like up the guise of a principled opposition. It was it or not, the AAP is now set to grow beyond a therefore juvenile to assert that the AAP didn’t Delhi-centric party and already has 307 district want the responsibility of government because units in place across the country. they refused to partner or support the other two parties. They were simply sticking to their prin- "After this performance, more people will want ciples and promises on the back of which they to join us and fight for us," Prashant Bhushan had been elected. said.

In pulling off the biggest upset in recent election history by defeating Sheila Dikshit, Arvind Kejriwal and his spectacular debut has brought the curtains down on an era of a decade-and-a-half of uninterrupted Congress rule.

Pallavi Polanki, Dec 8, 2013

ew Delhi - In pulling off the biggest up- last four elections – have abandoned the party. set in recent election history by defeat- N ing Sheila Dikshit, Arvind Kejriwal and In three of those seats, the Aam Admi Party’s his spectacular debut has brought the curtains candidates have achieved stunning victories, down on an era of a decade-and-a-half of unin- with the BJP snatching the Uttam Nagar seat terrupted Congress rule. from the Congress heavy weight Mukesh Shar- The Congress party’s serial MLAs -- some of ma. them in power longer than Dikshit -- have been decisively voted out by Delhi’s voters. AAP pulled off a remarkable victory in South Delhi's Jangpura constituency defeating four- Constituencies long known to be strongholds time MLA Tarvinder Singh Marwah by close to of the Congress party such as Uttam Nagar, 2000 votes. Jangpura, Ambedkar Nagar, Mongolpuri – all of which have voted for the Congress party in the Former PWD minister Raj Kumar Chouhan,

Copyright © 2012 Firstpost who was the favourite to win his fifth term from won in 2008. the Mongol Puri seat, has been yet another casualty of the AAP wave. Chouhan lost by a Three-time Congress MLAs, who were consid- wide margin of 10,000 votes to the Rakhi Birla ered a sure shot ticket to victory, too have been of AAP. have been swept away by the anti-Congress wave. Subhash Chopra from Kalkaji, Naseeb In another shocker, former speaker of the Delhi Singh from Vishwas Nagar and Narendra Nath Assembly and former Delhi Congress chief from Shahadra lost to their BJP rivals and Veer Prem Singh, who hasn’t lost an election since Singh Dhingan from Seempuri, Mala Ram the 1955, finished third, losing his seat to AAP’s Gangwal from Madipur and Rajesh Jain from Ashok Kumar. Sadar Bazar lost to AAP candidates.

Only three former ministers of the Dikshit gov- Reduced to eight seats from the a tally of 43 in ernment survived the anti-incumbency wave. 2008, the remaining five Congress candidates Former food and civl supplies minister Haroon who won are Prahlad Sawhney from Chandini Yusuf who retained his seat from Ballimaran, Chowk, Asif Mohammad from Okhla, Hasan former health minister A K Walia from Laxmi Ahmed from Mustafabad, Chaudhury Mateen Nagar and former urban development minister Ahmed from Seelampur and Jai Kishen from Arvinder Singh Lovely was voted back to power Sultanpur Majra. from Gandhi Nagar, but by half the margin he

Despite being a BJP stronghold, the upmarket south Delhi constituency of Greater Kailash which voted for V K Malhotra in 2008 gave his son Ajay Malhotra the thumbs down

Pallavi Polanki, Dec 8, 2013

ew Delhi: In a vote against politics of Despite being a BJP stronghold, the upmarket dynasty, Delhi voters rejected three out south Delhi constituency of Greater Kailash N of four sons of prominent politicians which voted for V K Malhotra in 2008 gave who contested from the BJP and the Congress his son Ajay Malhotra the thumbs down. Even tickets. The most shocking of all being the de- though Malhotra senior had won by a wide mar- feat of Ajay Malhotra, the son of veteran BJP gin of 10,000, the family name failed to carry leader and chief ministerial candidate in the last Ajay who was washed away by the AAP wave assembly election V K Malhotra. which saw their candidate Saurabh Bharadwaj win by a massive 13,000 votes.

The other two sons of veteran politicians who met the same fate were BJP leader O P Babbar’s son Rajiv who lost from Tilak Nagar and son of controversial Congress leader Sajjan Kumar Jagparvesh Kumar who was defeated in Sangam Vihar. Rajiv and Parvesh lost to AAP candidates Jarnail Singh and Dinesh Mohaniya, respec- tively.

Parvesh Sahib Singh was the only son of a politician to make it to the assembly. Son of former Delhi CM Sahib Singh Verma, Parvesh won the Mehrauli seat defeating the AAP candidate Nar- inder by a margin of 4500.

Proving everyone who predicted a landslide victory for NOTA wrong, it appears that the people of Delhi preferred for a ‘positive vote’.

Soumik Mukherjee, Dec 8, 2013 n the run up to the Delhi Assembly elec- Vinay Kumar, a voter from Patparganj. tions, in terms of speculation and hype, the I only contender that came anywhere close From the reaction of voters, it seems that the to matching the attention that was lavished on rise of AAP has been one of the major reasons Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Party was why the much debated NOTA had few takers. neither a candidate not a party. IT was another "The option would have been valid if I had to new entrant in Indian electoral politics -- choose between the bad and the evil. But our NOTA, or None Of The Above, the right to reject minds were made up that our vote would go handed to the voters through a Supreme Court to AAP," says Harpal, a voter from the New order. Delhi constituency which is heading towards an unthinkable victory for Arvind Kejriwal over incumbent CM Sheila Dikshit.

The political parties, however, claim that NOTA did, however, create a certain pressure as there was a strong apolitical wave before the election. "The same apolitical wave that has given AAP a leverage could possibly give NOTA a heads-up, but thankfully people preferred to vote for the candidates," said a state BJP leader.

Political analysts believe that in a triangular election and more importantly in an urban election like Delhi, NOTA is redundant. "It was However, as the results unfolded, one thing was a good move to try it as a pilot project in this clear -- voters in Delhi had no place for NOTA. election but in an election like Delhi, NOTA is invalid. Here people had enough options to So far, according to Election Commission up- choose from. But it will be useful in states such dates, only less than 1 percent votes in Delhi as West Bengal or UP or Tamil Nadu, where were polled for the NOTA button. In a few con- the local people vote for respective candidates stituencies such as Bijwasan, Sangam Vihar, it under immense pressure from political strong- reached 1 percent. men," says a journalist cum political analyst.

Proving everyone who predicted a landslide vic- Now with the final results only an hour away it tory for NOTA wrong, it appears that the people seems that the Arvind Kejriwal magic not only of Delhi preferred for a 'positive vote'. uprooted the Congress government but it also gave a positive direction to voters. "There is no point wasting a vote using NOTA. It was an opportunity for us to opt for change for the first of its kind election in Delhi," said

The spectacular showing of the AAP in Delhi will change national politics in 2014 even if Arvind Kejriwal’s party does not win too many seats

R Jagannathan, Dec 9, 2013 he assembly elections have yielded their proved that a third option is possible – even if results, but one result will dominate it does not win. In many states, there are third T national politics in 2014 – the rise of the and fourth parties that can now combine with Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the prominence AAP and queer the pitch for the national par- of its underlying message. After being denied a ties. This means all parties have to rethink their clear-cut victory in Delhi, the BJP will be tempt- strategies. ed to say that the issues in the national elections will be different, and that Narendra Modi will Second, Delhi is not just any other state. Its citi- be a more important factor in April-May 2014. zens come from all over north India, and how But that would be underestimating the real im- they voted may impact decisions back in their pact of the AAP, which goes beyond its immedi- home states. Pollsters will have to figure out ate performance in Delhi. how Biharis, UP-ites and Dalits voted in Delhi, since it could point to potential shifts back home too. Third, AAP is setting the agenda for clean politics. After the results, all parties have to begin wondering whether they can win with the sheer number of criminals in their midst. This is particularly true of the states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which will be decisive for all parties in 2014. All parties will have to, at the very least, reduce the number of criminals and corrupt candidates the next time. Trying to do this can result in short-term revolts within parties, but some parties may consider this well worth the risk.

There are six things that will now inevitably Fourth, while AAP is not a national force as yet, change and if the big parties fail to take note, and its mobilising powers may not be as strong they will pay a price – as the BJP nearly did in in other states as in Delhi, the fact is national Delhi. All parties will be impacted by the AAP elections are won with wafer-thin majorities. phenomenon. In UP, the party winning 30 percent of the vote takes the bulk of the seats. This is the same in First, given the importance of the Delhi vote to almost every state. What this means is that if the national audience, the clear message coming the AAP is able to garner even 2-5 percent of the through is that TINA (there is no alternative) popular vote, even if it doesn’t win, it will im- is a much over-rated factor in elections. Till pact the election results. yesterday, you had to think of the Congress and the BJP as the most viable alternatives to each Example: In Maharashtra, the mere existence other, both in Delhi and nationally. AAP has of Raj Thackeray’s MNS has robbed the Sena-

Copyright © 2012 Firstpost BJP combine of possible victory at least twice. parties this time – even more than usual. For In Andhra, Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam (now the last few years now, several Muslim parties merged with the Congress) took away a chunk have been coming to the forefront – from As- of the vote and enabled YS Rajasekhara Reddy sam (AUDF) to Maharashtra (MIM, Welfare to make a clear sweep in 2009. This time, the Party) to West Bengal (Welfare Party, Social Andhra Pradesh vote may be even more unpre- Democratic Party), and Uttar Pradesh (Peace dictable in view of the Telangana factor. Small Party). In last year’s Jangipur Lok Sabha bypoll, players can make a huge difference. This is why for example, Pranab Mukherjee’s son Abhijit AAP could conceivably change the landscape for barely squeaked through as two Muslim par- 2014 even if it does not win a single seat. ties cut into his vote. The Welfare Party of India and the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) Fifth, for the BJP in particular, the current polled 41,620 and 24,691 votes, while the Con- strategy centering around the incompetence of gress won by a mere 2,500 votes. the central government will have to be nuanced With the AAM in play, it is not inconceivable and possibly reworked. It will have to take note that new alliances will be formed, for there is of the new kid – on the block, and the new is- now strong evidence that Muslims are tired of sues he is bringing to the fore. It is no longer voting for Congress and some of the regional possible to pit Narendra Modi against Rahul parties (Samajwadi) merely to keep the BJP Gandhi and hope for a walkover. Given the away. In Delhi too, a significant chuck of Mus- high media savviness of AAP and the likelihood lims may have voted for AAP. of the party getting more national play on the media in the coming months, one cannot rule The systemic impact of the Aam Aadmi Party out the possibility of the focus shifting to larger will thus go far beyond what its own immediate issues beyond the Congress’ incompetence. In prospects indicate. And this is what could prove this scenario, Modi’s pitch may need altering. very important in 2014.

Sixth, the Muslim vote is going to matter to all

The pollsters have more or less got it right, and AAP is the big winner in 2013. This changes the neture of the challenge in 2014 for all political parties.

R Jagannathan, Dec 8, 2013

ven as we are mid-way through the elec- a strong message of idealism and the ability to tion result trends in the four major as- channel and organise public support effectively. E semblies of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, The interesting thing about AAP is not that it Chhattisgarh, and Delhi, the broad trend seems has made waves so quickly after formation—re- to be thumping wins for the BJP in the first two, gional parties like Telugu Desam have done that a challenging revival of the Congress in Chhat- before—but that it is largely an urban party, tisgarh (though a win can’t be predicted for ei- driven by the middle and lower-middle classes. ther party at this time), and a spectacular debut It heralds the change that urban India is seeking by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi, which in politics. will probably rob the BJP of a clear majority. Third, while it is true that assembly election results cannot be extrapolated to decide how national elections may pan out—both Delhi and Chhattisgarh may vote differently in 2014— what is clear is that the Congress is on a slippery slope. It will surely make course corrections and try and pull back, but from now on the momentum is in the other direction.

Fourth, the resounding defeat of Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan and the close fight in Chhattis- garh indicate that freebies are not a sure way to win elections. Gehlot, in his last year, has been flooding Rajasthan with freebies (food, health, etc). Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh has been But some broad conclusions can clearly be widely lauded for his cheap rice scheme. Sheila drawn from these trends – regardless of what Dikshit's Delhi also announced the launch of the the final seat count numbers are in these four food security scheme before the elections. But states. barring dirt-poor Chhattisgarh, it seems that using taxpayer money to buy votes is not any First, the pollsters appear to have got it more more a critical factor in elections. At best, these or less right – even in Chhattisgarh and Delhi, schemes may accentuate an existing trend. where there was a tight race on. Their predic- tions are well within the margins of error they Fifth, the Narendra Modi factor will be dis- had predicted. cussed endlessly, with his critics pointing to what happened in Delhi, and his backers talking Second, the biggest victor is clearly AAP, which about the sweep in Rajasthan and MP, and the has not only gatecrashed the Delhi election creditable performance in Delhi and Chhattis- scene in one fell swoop, but also established the garh. The reality is somewhere in between. viability of new parties in politics if they have

Copyright © 2012 Firstpost While Chhattisgarh was probably fought totally the announcement by AAP that it will contest in on local issues, Rajasthan—which adjoins Gu- many more places, the BJP will have to change jarat—clearly benefited from Modi’s extensive its messaging if it is to contain the damage from campaigning even though Vasundhara Raje AAP. If the anti-incumbency vote is split, one could possibly have won even without Modi. cannot expect the Modi additional vote alone to What Modi’s campaigning achieved was proba- deliver victory for the BJP/NDA. bly a sharper sweep for the BJP in Rajasthan. In Madhya Pradesh, Shivraj Singh Chouhan clearly The Congress has been given a shock, but it carried the day, and Modi may not have added now has time to set things right. Four months is much to the tally—though one can’t say that enough time to change its message and candi- conclusively. In Delhi, if the BJP crosses 30-32 dates. And the message clearly cannot be free- seats, one can say Modi probably prevented bies and the Gandhi family. It has now noth- AAP from emerging as the biggest party—which ing to lose by dumping all its old and doubtful it could well have. candidates and trying new faces with less anti- incumbency problems. In short, Modi made a difference – but it would be fair to say that the local elections could not The Congress can make a small comeback if the have been won purely by him. In the national Dynasty takes a back seat and instead allows lo- elections, though, he may be a bigger factor, and cal leaders to come to the fore, fully empowered. this is what the BJP will be hoping for. The regional parties will have to take note of Sixth, the AAP victory is also a warning signal the recent election results. There are small to regional parties. Thus far, all commenta- city-based parties already in existence—like the tors have been glibly telling the BJP that in the Loksatta Party in Andhra Pradesh—and it would states where regional parties are strong, the make sense for them to align with AAP. A state BJP may not be able to make much headway. like Andhra Pradesh, which is already in the But AAP is an idea, and the regional parties do throes of political crisis due to the Telangana not necessarily have a better image than the issue, may be just ripe for an interloper like Congress or BJP in their states. If AAP becomes AAP-Loksatta to overturn all conventional logic a factor in metros such as Mumbai and many significantly. state capitals, one can’t rule out a dent in the regional vote too. The regional parties have Most important, while negative campaigning only one differentiator from the national par- worked for AAP—it had no record to defend— ties – being closer to local issues, and being able the BJP and regional parties have to make a to choose their own leaders. With AAP in the positive pitch for themselves. fray, they too will have to rethink their strategy. They can’t afford to make the BJP’s mistake of The BJP remains the frontrunner, but it will underestimating the challenge from AAP till just have to rethink its old gameplan of only target- a month before the Delhi election, when they ing the Congress with the Modi aura. The Modi changed their chief ministerial candidate. aura at the national level is unmistakeable, and like AAP, he too will benefit from being an The BJP now has to reckon not only with the outsider to Delhi, but he can't afford to ignore Congress, but also a freshly-minted party (AAP) either the regional parties or AAP. in the urban areas. Even though the Delhi exit polls showed a high overlap between AAP and In short, all bets are off for 2014. Modi supporters, given six more months, and

The Congress President said that the party would declare its prime ministerial candidate at the opportune element.

FP Politics, Dec 8, 2013

aving suffered losses in four major imagine," Gandhi said. states ahead of the 2014 elections, the H Congress leadership put up a brave The Congress Vice President said he believed face and party vice president Rahul Gandhi Sheila Dikshit had delivered good governance credited the Aam Aadmi Party for involving in Delhi despite her loss and said that the party people like no other party and promised that he needed to move to a paradigm where people would learn from them - and then do a better were given a voice in political parties. job. "I am going to put all my efforts to ensure that "We are going to do a better job than anyone in you get a party that lives up to your expecta- that party and in a manner that you can't even tions," he said.

Copyright © 2012 Firstpost The Congress Vice President said that both par- tion... We have to look into the way we took or ties particularly the Congress had been thinking didn't take our message to the people," Sonia about politics in a traditional way. Gandhi said. "The people have given us a message with these elections... I and the Congress party have taken She said people must have been unhappy with this seriously," he said. their governments in states and acknowledged that price rise might have been a factor in their "The Congress party has the ability to stand up losses. the expectations of the people and it will do so," Gandhi said. "We will introspect seriously and take all neces- sary steps to rectify our method of functioning," The Congress Vice President said that the party she said. has heard what the people had to say and prom- The Congress president said that the national ised that they would do whatever they could as elections will differ greatly from the state elec- a party and individuals to live up to people's tions and these results didn't offer any indica- expectations. tions on how that would go. He refused to comment on Narendra Modi and said that the BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate "The elections will be quite different from the had his own perspective. state level," she said.

"My focus is on how I can help the people of She was also whether the party had lost any this country. That's my focus... What the BJP is momentum because they didn't have a prime doing and what other people are doing is their ministerial candidate. focus. What we're doing is our focus," he said. The party will decide on its prime ministerial Speaking before him party president Sonia candidate, she said, with Rahul Gandhi stand- Gandhi congratulated their opponents for their ing beside her with a cryptic smile on her face. performance in the four states and said it meant the party would need to introspect. "At the opportune time the name of the PM candidate will be announced," she said. "Naturally this results calls for deep introspec-

Changes in organisational structure and roping in citizen’s participation were ‘revolutionary’ changes Rahul has tried earlier. They failed.

FP Politics, Dec 9, 2013

n the inscrutable manner reserved only for defeat, there is already ample reason to believe the Congress high command, Sonia Gandhi that this too will end badly for the Congress. I and Rahul Gandhi addressed a brief press The party's media managers are rumoured to conference on Sunday evening, appearing to have been briefed to stick to the line that Sonia accept defeat graciously, congratulating oppo- attempted too, that national general elections nents who more than convincingly stole their are a completely different ballgame, and that thunder, but also simultaneously making some local issues that dominated these elections are indecipherable noises. likely to be very different from issues that will hold sway when the summer of 2014 comes around. Panelists at TV studios will also steadfastly reject any suggestion that this result is a referendum result on Rahul Gandhi's leadership.

Coming back to Rahul's promises. Nobody, not even the Congress high command, can ignore the message that the four states delivered on Sunday. Before Sonia and Rahul's press statement, similar statements came from the next generation of Congressmen.

South Mumbai MP Milind Deora congratulated Arvind Kejriwal on Twitter and then added a "A new paradigm," Rahul promised, adding tweet: "Results of hundred battles help one pre- later that the lessons they will learn from the pare well for the war ~ Sun Tzu. Good time for Aam Aadmi Party would be implemented bet- Congress to introspect & reward the deserving." ter than the AAP. Citizen ("common men's" to use Rahul's term) participation in governance MP campaign chief Jyotiraditya Scindia and decisions would be introduced in a way that Rajasthan leader Sachin Pilot were gracious in is manner that is so good "that you can't even defeat too, promising to learn from the party's imagine". mistakes.

A little consternation however mild, "deep in- But Rahul's lofty announcement of changes in trospection" as promised by Sonia Gandhi and the party that are better than anything Indians willingness to learn from opponents -- these can even imagine does not sound promising. can only be good things for a depleted Congress Because tall promises about organisational party. structure have been made earlier, including promises about involving the general public in Still, even though it's early days still since the decision making. Gandhi parivar's unexpected graciousness in

Copyright © 2012 Firstpost Truth be told, people dislike Rahul despite the visits to Dalit homes also about hearing what dimpled smile and the occasional charm. His Bharat has to say to the Congress? The sudden manner of speech builds no connect with those ebullience on Sunday evening just appears mis- who're listening, despite the frequent use of placed, yet another display of the arrogance that 'bhaiya' and 'suno na'. has brought the party down.

Rahul has already promised that ticket distribu- What Kejriwal brought to electoral politics is tion would be based on merit and not nepotism rebellion, a questioning of the old status quo. -- this promise remained unfulfilled. He already Like his victory, Kejriwal's politics has hinged aired his ideas about Congressmen connect- on seeking what was considered impossible. To ing with voters through social media initiatives replicate that, there is only one thing the Con- such as the now-forgotten 'Khidkee' -- this too gress can do -- present a whole new Congress, bombed. There was more: a new website, a plan give the the leadership status quo the big heave- to teach Congress candidates about the UPA's ho. That is what India truly can't even imagine. showcase schemes, nothing worked. Weren't the And what Rahul won't do.

While the emergence of Arvind Kejirwal as a giant killer and the slide of Rahul Gandhi and Congress are the two established, indisputable aspects of Sunday verdict, the most debated issue has been how much impact Modi had on the results.

Sanjay Singh, Dec 8, 2013

he election results across Rajasthan, in Chhatisgarh. Delhi, Chhatisgarh and Madhya Pradesh T are a loud and clear rejection of the Con- The big takeaways from Sunday verdict are gress. The Grand Old Party has never suffered three fold: this kind of rout in the region. It is a complete demolition – reduced to single digits in Delhi 1)The rejection of Rahul and Sonia Gandhi’s with chief minister Sheila Dikshit losing her brand of politics of attempting to win votes by own seat very badly, getting only over one-tenth offering handouts to people with only a passing of the seats in Rajasthan, giving Shivraj Singh nod to good governance. Chouhan a bigger two-third majority and a third term in MP and not being able to snatch victory 2) Even though the BJP may form the govern-

Copyright © 2012 Firstpost ment in Delhi, the big story is the emergence tioning the existence of a Modi wave, he is also of Arvind Kejriwal as a giant killer and his Aam being cautious. Aadmi Party as a force to reckon with. While the emergence of Arvind Kejirwal as a 3) An aggressive Narendra Modi’s march to Del- giant killer and the slide of Rahul Gandhi and hi could become virtually unstoppable should Congress are the two established, indisputable the run-up to parliamentary elections not take aspects of Sunday verdict, the most debated is- some unpredictable turns in next three to four sue has been how much impact Modi had on the months. results.

The ever diminishing capacity of the Con- Senior BJP leaders see a clear Modi impact in gress to catch votes and the fading aura of the these elections. BJP president Rajnath Singh Gandhi-Nehru family could severely impair the spoke positively of Modi’s impact. Vasundhra UPA’s structure. Omar Abdullah, a key UPA ally Raje was the first one to go on record and talk and a personal friend of Rahul Gandhi, sent out of about Modi’s role in influencing the record an interesting series of tweets that are indicative three-fourth majority that she got. Shivraj Singh of the restlessness setting in among the ruling Chouhan too acknowledged his role. coalition partners. However, Vasundhra and Shivraj are mass lead- Congress president Sonia Gandhi, in one of her ers in their own right, Shivraj has achieved what rare media interactions, spoke of introspection Modi could not - returning the party to power by the party and Rahul Gandhi talked of a para- with an increased two-third majority for a third digm shift in party’s structure in days to come. term. Sonia Gandhi even said that the “people need not worry. At opportune time, the Prime Minis- Though BJP first came to power in 2003 with terial candidate will be announced”. a massive majority under Uma Bharti’s leadership, the party had nearly lost the plot until Omar’s tweets become even more interesting Shivraj was made chief minister under most in this context. He took a dig at Narendra Modi challenging circumstances. with eloquent words but the big political message was sarcasm directed at Rahul Gandhi, Some analysts are mistaken when they try to albeit without naming him. find an existence of Modi wave in numbers that the BJP gets in Delhi and Chhattisgarh. Modi’s “The Notes to self for #2014 big public meetings influence can be seen in the low numbers for don't always mean votes but poorly attended the Congress. His aggressive campaigning ones definitely indicate big trouble.” and constantly challenging Congress and the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty with new idioms and The message for Rahul couldn’t have been catch phrases had its impact. The numbers are clearer. He has pinched at the raw nerve of the embarrassing for the Congress, for which Modi Congress Party. Rahul had poorly attended ral- might say “Congress Mukt Bharat”. lies in Delhi and Jodhpur, where people started There are a number of BJP leaders who genu- leaving even while he had started to speak. inely believe that had Modi not been involved, the BJP would have lost in both Chhattisgarh In another tweet Omar said, “Note to self #2014 and Delhi. His intervention in replacing Vijay there is no "wave" but the effect on their cadre Goel with Dr Harsh Vardhan had been decisive is obvious. Can't afford to underestimate this and his campaigns energised the cadre. going ahead.” In the latter phases of the run-up to the Chhat- Modi is Omar’s political opponent and the tisgarh elections, the BJP made a strategic rivalry has become bitter after the BJP’s Prime shift in campaigning. Modi acquired a bigger Ministerial candidate’s Jammu rally. So Omar’s space than Raman Singh. Modi also stuck to comments on Modi is that of an opponent who campaigning for last two days. In first phase he is articulate in his expressions but while ques- was there for two days. Modi’s charisma lay in

Copyright © 2012 Firstpost charging the atmosphere for his party and in- two scenarios are completely different. In 2003- stilling required doses of confidence to take on 04, the BJP forced the nation into an election, their rivals. A charged cadre makes a difference which was due later in 2004. It was in any case in the electoral arena. facing an anti-incumbency of six years. Despite all the positive hype of about then Prime Minis- A number of Congress leaders have been argu- ter Atal Bihari Vajpayee, he did not look to be in ing through the day that the outcome of these best of his health and someone who could carry assembly elections will have no impact on the burden of being in office for another five parliamentary elections. Even Prime Minister years. The government’s credentials were fur- Manmohan Singh had earlier said “Congress ther tarnished by a series of scandals, including party is going to the election with a sense of the one exposed by Tehalka tapes. self-confidence and that should not be mistaken whatever may be the outcome of the provincial This time around, it is the UPA Government assembly elections. As an organised political that has lost its sheen and Manmohan Singh has party, we cannot underestimate the power of lost his Teflon-coated credibility of an honest, opposition to unsettle the ship.” economist Prime Minister. People in vast parts of the country have been itching to express their Others party leaders have taken that argument preferences and these assembly polls gave them a step further. They argue that the BJP had won that opportunity. these states (except Delhi) in 2003 and buoyed by the outcome, the Vajpayee government went Given the traction Modi has been getting, the to early elections in April-May 2004 and lost. likelihood is the momentum will continue. For the Congress, the scarier prospect would be that They are right on facts of what happened a the Modi wave grows even taller over the next decade ago but wrong in the assessment. The few months.

Difficult though it may be for the Congress to believe this, the only way the party can remain politically relevant is by further weakening itself.

Hartosh Singh Bal, Dec 8, 2013

he conclusion from the results is believe this, the only way the party can remain straightforward; the Congress is a politi- politically relevant is by further weakening T cal force in decline. When you consider itself. Within the party there is already talk of the fact that the gap between the two parties is Rahul Gandhi playing a more subdued role, and only set to widen -- more so in states such as Sonia Gandhi re-emerging as the most promi- Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan with Narendra nent face of the party. But such remedies is to Modi as the candidate, and with the BJP likely misunderstand the verdict. to fare far better in Chhattisgarh in 2014 -- it seems there is little the party can do to arrest In Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, where it was this decline in the run up to the general elec- in a direct fight with the BJP, the party has been tions. decimated, and even Chhattisgarh is unlikely to be a close contest in 2014 -- Sonia Gandhi or no Sonia Gandhi. In Delhi, the Congress has slid to third place, a result that no one could have predicted earlier in the year. Will Sonia Gandhi and the Congress need to take a back seat for 2014? AFP Will Sonia Gandhi and the Congress need to take a back seat for 2014? AFP As several analysts have argued, it is Delhi which is more representative of the battle that lies ahead. Despite the Congress’ poor showing, the BJP has face a real fight due to the Aam Aadmi Party. In a majority of the states, the challenge to the BJP is not from the Con- gress but from various regional parties. The real determinant of what sort of government For many in the country this is a welcome de- will emerge in 2014 depends on the numerical velopment, including people like me who have strength of the regional parties. no hesitation in affirming liberal and secular values. But where I differ from the cheerlead- There are two straightforward alternatives that ers of BJP is in believing that the diminishment give the BJP and Narendra Modi an overwhelm- of the Congress is only a step towards ensuring ing advantage. One where the BJP has sufficient that an authoritarian personality cult centred numbers -- and this would mean anything over around Modi and his exclusionist ideology does 190 or so -- to make sure the government that not come to dominate the country. For me, it is is formed bears the stamp of Modi. The second the central requirement of Indian politics over is where the numbers so add up that the only the next decade. alternative to a Modi-led BJP is a rag-tag coalition that will collapse in a couple of years pav- Difficult though it may be for the Congress to ing the way for a much stronger showing by a

Copyright © 2012 Firstpost Modi-led BJP. give in and concede seats to the BSP in other states while remaining modest in its demands It is for this reason that the Congress cannot for seats in UP. Not only will this strengthen the sit back and let things take their own course, resistance to Modi in states like MP and Rajas- relying only on the performance of the regional than, it will also bolster an already strong BSP parties to stymie the BJP. It has to start working in UP. now to facilitate a formation that is a practical Such an approach is required even more so in alternative to Modi. But a coalition where the Bihar where the Congress has to chose between Congress is an overwhelming presence whether Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar. The party backed inside the government or outside is doomed by the Congress can hope to see a consolidation from the start -- as the history of the coalitions of Muslim votes behind it, but most of the seats in the 1990s bears out. Such a coalition would handed over to the Congress in any alliance in work only if the Congress ends up with a tally of Bihar would be a dead loss. Similar arguments 75 or so -- rather than anything over 100. This extend across several states, and the resulting would leave the Congress free to play the role alliances that result from such concessions can the Left played UPA I, cementing the govern- serve as the nucleus for a coalition, even laying ment from outside with support that is based on down a common minimum agenda for govern- a pre-set agenda. ance.

The Congress is unlikely to end up with this low All this, of course, assumes that the party is a tally, but it must work toward achieving ex- capable of such a vision, which consigns the actly this. Such a goal may sound paradoxical, family to the background. On the evidence so but consider what this would actually imply on far, there is little reason to believe the party will the ground in states such as UP and Bihar. In take the leap. But perhaps the Congress needs UP, there have been several rounds of discus- to think back to 2004. If government formation sions between the BSP and the Congress over then was marked by an act of abnegation by a possible alliance. The sticking point seems to an individual, in 2014 it may require an act of be clear: while the BSP wants an alliance that abnegation by the entire party. extends across the country the Congress wants one restricted to UP. The Congress needs to

It’s no use invoking the merits of the Aam Aadmi Party as long as the Aam Aadmi in the Congress Party has no say in its politics.

Dhiraj Nayyar, Dec 9, 2013

fter decimation came introspection. A appropriate time. Now, this could be any time very very disappointed Congress Presid- between tomorrow and next April when the A net Sonia Gandhi told the press that she General Election gets underway. It could equal- would reflect on the grand old party’s dismal ly be after the election, in true Congress style. performance in Delhi, MP, Rajasthan and Chat- Rahul should insist that the party’s PM candi- tisgarh, even while insisting that her incumbent date be projected sooner rather than later. governments in Delhi and Rajasthan had done a good job. He should follow that insistence by insisting that the PM candidate be chosen in an open election in which every primary member of the party has a vote. Rahul would, of course, be most welcome to enter this intra-party process as a candidate. But recent evidence suggests that he isn't really interested in the job, not in 2014 anyway.

If the High Command (read mother and son) anoints the Prime Ministerial candidate in the manner of a monarch (a la Manmohan Singh), the voters of India will know that the Congress has had no real change of heart. If, on the other hand, the candidate is chosen in an open election, Rahul’s promise of reforming the Congress Rahul Gandhi was more ambitious when he will at least sound genuine. promised to involve the Aam Aadmi (not the party) in the workings of the Congress. The The Family’s confidence trick with Manmohan irony of his statement (coming from the Vice Singh – he the deserving technocrat-turned- President of a party which claims to be wedded politician – has been found out. India will not to the cause of the Aam Aadmi) clearly escaped accept another puppet as PM. Remote controls him. Still, he promised that he would do ‘it’ bet- cannot run governments effectively. India will ter than AAP, in a way that would challenge the no longer accept Rahul Gandhi’s numerous imagination of us ordinary Indians. (but ultimately false) promises of reforming his party. He needs to do something dramatic to Here’s an unsolicited suggestion to Rahul Gan- restore even an ounce of faith. dhi as he contemplates how to life his party from the nadir. Why doesn’t he make a start It’s no use invoking the merits of the Aam by involving the Aam Congressman in the Aadmi Party as long as the Aam Aadmi in the decision-making process of his party? Speaking Congress Party has no say in its politics. Words before Rahul, Sonia Gandhi dropped a hint that have never been Rahul's forte. Perhaps then the Congress would name a Prime Ministerial radical action can save a fast sinking political candidate for the 2014 General Election at an trajectory.

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