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Brand Disruption 2020: Direct Brands Go Mainstream February 2020

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Brand Disruption 2020: Direct Brands Go Mainstream February 2020 Direct Brands Initiative Strategic Partners: IAB Proprietary Research This report was produced by IAB. The final report, findings, and recommendations were not influenced by strategic partners. 1 Acknowledgments This report would not have been possible without the collaboration and financial support of our Direct Brands Initiative Strategic Partners and supporting sponsor, listed below. The final report, findings, and recommendations were not influenced by strategic partners or sponsors. Direct Brands Initiative Strategic Partners Supporting Sponsor Additionally, we extend our deepest appreciation to all the marketers, publishers, technology developers, and service providers that have contributed their time, insight, and enthusiasm in support of this report. IAB Proprietary Research 2 Table of Contents 1. The Mainstreaming of the Direct Brand Economy 2. Production: At-Your-Service 3. The Delivery Wars: Speed Is of the Essence 4. The New Shopping Experience: Selling Brands in an Omnichannel World 5. The Shopify Effect: Powering the Direct Brand Ecosystem 6. The First-Party Data Economy: Personalization Confronts Regulation 7. Attention: The Battle to Reach Consumers IAB Proprietary Research 3 The Mainstreaming of the Direct Brand Economy IAB Proprietary Research 4 The Direct Brand Economy is Achieving Mainstream Status IAB Proprietary Research 5 2019: Incumbents Lead in Buying Successful Disruptors —The New York Times —AdAge —BusinessWire —beautyindependent.com —TechCrunch —TechCrunch —Forbes —Target IAB Proprietary Research 6 6 32 Disruptors Founded in the Last 10 Years had M&As in 2019 Alcohol/Beer/Wine Education Health/Wellness DTC Acquired by DTC Acquired by DTC Acquired by Swish Beverages ZX Ventures Thinkful Chegg Habit Viome CodeMonkey Studios TAL Education Group AVA Royal DSM Apparel/Fashion Portfolium Instructure Foodstand Diet ID DTC Acquired by zyBooks Wiley Greats Steve Madden Osmo BYJU's Personal Care Reformation Permira Socratic Google DTC Acquired by WIN Brands Bow & Drape Sustain Natural Grove Collaborative Group Walker and Company Procter & Gamble Lively Wacoal Food & Beverage DTC Acquired by Christophe Robin The Hut Group NurturMe Grays Peak Capital Drunk Elephant Shiseido Consumer Electronics Tio Gazpacho Novamex Kylie Cosmetics Coty DTC Acquired by Halo Top Wells Enterprises Oars & Alps SC Johnson littleBits Sphero Hungry Harvest Ungraded Produce Tatcha Unilever Wisp Target Group Purple Carrot Oisix ra daichi This Is L Procter & Gamble Henge Docks Brydge Cameron's Coffee Grupo Nutresa Revive Kombucha Peet's Coffee & Tea IAB Proprietary Research Source: CB insights 7 7 Top 2019-2020 Direct Brand Economy Trends 1. Brands are now born “storelessly” and grow across channels 2. The entire brand supply chain is increasingly available “as-a-service” 3. Delivery wars intensify: next-day now the norm, same-day the frontier 4. Buy online, pickup in-store (BOPIS) is the new normal in shopping 5. To survive, retailers and brands are engaged in a raging “experience war” 6. Emerging tech now fully emerged to elevate digital shopping experiences 7. A “Shopify ecosystem” is materializing as a direct brand alternative to Amazon 8. Digital data output will triple from 2019 to 2025, powering demand for – and availability of – personalized services, products, content, and marketing 9. Regulatory concerns about consumer data are high, but not yet affecting companies’ data investments 10. Video consumption is skyrocketing – entirely on direct-to-consumer channels 11. The video ad market is really two markets: story-based, and “me-based,” and both, content, commerce, and data are converging 12. Shoppable video ads are edging close to mainstream 13. Podcast and audio streaming are creating breakout brand opportunities IAB Proprietary Research 8 Indirect Brand Economy (1879 – 2010) consumer publisher finance sourcing advertising manufacturing brand agency logistics retailer distribution integration IAB Proprietary Research 9 Direct Brand Economy, 2010+ IAB Proprietary Research 10 Welcome to the “Storeless Brand” IAB Proprietary Research 11 B&M Store Closings Up 68% YoY to a Record 9,300 Stores US Store Closings Have Spiked to Their Highest Levels in Years in 2019 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Total Store Closures Total Store Openings IAB Proprietary Research Sources: https://qz.com/1771909/2019-saw-a-dramatic-spike-in-us-retailers-closing-stores/; https://coresight.com/research/reviewing-year-to-date-us-store-closures-and-openings/ 12 The Rise of E-commerce Powers the Direct Brand Economy • Ecommerce is growing 5x the Comparing Growth: U.S. Retail Sales* vs. E-commerce rate of total retail, and its 20 share has nearly tripled in 18 the last decade (from 5% to 14%) 16 14 12 • 82% of U.S. adults shop 10 online, accounting for nearly 8 $600 billion in 6 2019 (up 13% YoY) 4 2 0 • In 2020, for the first time 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 mobile will account for half -2 of all online sales -4 Total Retail Sales Growth* E-Commerce Sales Growth *Factoring out the sale of items not normally purchased online, such as fuel, automobiles and sales in bars and restaurants IAB Proprietary Research Sources: eMarketer, October 2019; https://content-na1.emarketer.com/us-E-commerce-2019; A decade in review: E-commerce sales vs. retail sales 2007-2018 13 E-commerce Market Share will Increase ~50% across All Categories by 2023 US Retail E-commerce Sales Share by Product Category % of Total Retail Sales Timeframe 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Apparel & Accessories 25.20% 27.90% 31.00% 34.00% 37.00% Auto & Parts 3.70% 4.10% 4.40% 4.70% 5.00% Books, Music & Video 51.20% 56.20% 61.80% 67.80% 74.40% Computer & Consumer Electronics 39.40% 43.40% 47.70% 52% 56.30% Food & Beverage 2.60% 3.10% 3.60% 4.20% 4.80% Furniture & Home Furnishings 22.20% 25.20% 28.30% 31.20% 34.30% Health, Personal Care & Beauty 10.20% 11.70% 13.60% 15.50% 17.60% Office Equipment & Supplies 26.60% 28.40% 30.30% 32.20% 33.90% Toys & Hobby 32.70% 36.80% 40.80% 44.90% 49.00% Other Categories 24.20% 24.30% 24.20% 24.20% 24.10% IAB Proprietary Research Source: https://forecasts-na1.emarketer.com/584b26021403070290f93a31/5851918a0626310a2c186abc 14 CPG Sales are Gradually Shifting from Bricks to Clicks While CPG brick-and-mortar unit & sales growth are flat to declining YoY, e-commerce sales are up significantly Consumption Growth Grinds to a Halt What CPGs are Growing Fastest Online? CPG Brick-and-Mortar 3-Year Compound Annual Growth Rate 70 1.196 59.90% 60 0.58 50 -0.036 38.40% 40 34.20% -0.652 32.50% 30 27.70% Unit Volume -1.268 20 Unit % Growth 14.60% -1.884 10 0.10% - 1.00% 5.40% - 4.30% 1.80% 1.80% 1.70% 1.20% 0.80% 0.70% 0.60% 0 -2.5 0.10% Pet Household Health/ Grocery Baby Total Supplies Care Beauty Items Care FMCG Q1 '19 Q1 '18 Q4 '18 Q3 '18 Q2 '18 Q1 '17 Q4 '17 Q3 '17 Q2 '17 Q1 '16 Q4 '16 Q3 '16 Q2 Unit Volume Unit % Growth E-Commerce Overall In-Store IAB Proprietary Research Sources: Nielsen.com 7/26/19, "Total Consumer Report 2019“; Digitalcommerce360.com, 10/18/19, "e-commerce has an outsized impact on the CPG market, research shows“; Nielsen.com 7/26/19, "Total Consumer Report 2019“; KPMG Organic Growth Barometer 2019 15 60 Years of Big Brand Dominance is Eroding Nearly 60% of the Top 20th Century Brands Have Lost Share or Stopped Trading 2016- 2016- Brand 1923 1983 Brand 1923 1983 2019 2019 Out of Swift's Premium Bacon 1 1 Sherwin-Williams Paint 1 1 3 Business Kellogg's Corn Flakes 1 3 3 Hammermill Paper 1 1 1 Eastman Kodak Cameras 1 1 Bankrupt Gillette Razors 1 1 1 Del Monte Canned Fruit 1 1 2 Coca-Cola Soft Drinks 1 1 1 Hershey's Chocolates 1 2 2 Campbell's Soup 1 1 1 Crisco Shortening 1 2 1 Ivory Soap 1 1 6 Wrigley Chewing Gum 1 1 2 Lipton Tea 1 1 1 Nabisco Biscuits 1 1 1 Goodyear Tires 1 1 3 Eveready Batteries 1 1 6 Palmolive Soap 1 2 2 Golden Medal Flour 1 1 1 Colgate Toothpaste 1 2 3 LifeSavers Mint Candies (Wrigley) 1 1 5 IAB Proprietary Research Source: (1983), “Study: Majority of 25 Leaders in 1923 Still on Top,” Advertising Age, P.32. & Various 16 Marketing Strategies are Becoming Fundamentally More Personalized "Once you have the smart audiences, you can do propensity marketing with people that have similar characteristics.” - David Taylor CEO, Procter & Gamble July 2019 IAB Proprietary Research Sources: https://www.marketingdive.com/news/pgs-sales-jump-as-ad-spending-shrinks-data-driven-marketing-ramps-up/559912/; https://www.prweek.com/article/1593429/p-g-slashes-ad-spend-350m-cutting-waste-agency-fees; https://www.thedrum.com/news/2019/04/19/unilever-ups-ad-spend-300m-2-years-thanks-agency-cutbacks; https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/unilever-saves-%E2%82%AC500m-in-housing-more-efficient-agencies/1578798 17 Apparel Industry Illustrates Brands’ Big Shift • Apparel retailers’ earnings Apparel Industry Profits were down 24% in Q1 Retail Metrics Apparel Group percent change in earnings 2019— the worst showing since Q1 2008 (-40%) Source: Retail Metrics IAB Proprietary Research Source: https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/product/online-apparel-report/ 18 Apparel Industry Illustrates Brands’ Big Shift • U.S. online apparel sales Online Share of Total Apparel Retail Sales grew 18.5% in 2018 vs. total 34.4% apparel (+5.3%) and now represent more than a third of all apparel sales 30.6% 2017 2018 IAB Proprietary Research Source: https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/product/online-apparel-report/ 19 As Consumers go “e,” DTCs are Trouncing Top Women’s
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