Ethnic Violence in Africa: Destructive Legacies of Pre-Colonial States Jack Paine* June 14, 2017 Abstract Despite endemic ethnic violence in post-colonial Africa, minimal research has analyzed historical causes of regional variance in civil wars and military coups. This paper argues that ethnic differences gained heightened political salience in countries with an ethnic group organized as a pre-colonial state (PCS). Combining this insight with a model on post-colonial rulers’ tradeoff between coups and civil wars implies PCS groups and other groups in their country should more frequently participate in ethnic violence. Regression evidence using original data on pre-colonial African states demonstrates that ethnic groups in countries with at least one PCS group have participated in either ethnic civil wars or coups more frequently than ethnic groups in other countries, with the modal type of violence for different groups mediated by how pre-colonial statehood affected ethnopolitical inclusion. Before 1989, 34 of 35 ethnic groups that participated in major civil wars belonged to countries with a PCS group. Keywords: African politics, Civil war, Coup d’etat, Ethnic politics, Historical statehood *Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Rochester,
[email protected]. The author thanks Leo Arriola, Kyle Beardsley, Ernesto dal Bo, Mark Dincecco, Thad Dunning, Erica Frantz, Anderson Frey, Bethany Lacina, Alex Lee, Peter Lorentzen, Robert Powell, Philip Roessler, Erin Troland, Tore Wig, and seminar participants at UC Berkeley, University of Rochester, WGAPE 2015 hosted at the University of Washington, SPSA 2016, and WPSA 2017. Political violence such as civil wars and military coups has plagued Sub-Saharan Africa (henceforth, “Africa”) since independence, causing millions of battle deaths and contributing substantially to the region’s poor overall economic performance.