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Impact of Turmoil on the Handicraft Sector of Jammu and Kashmir: an Economic Analysis

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Impact of Turmoil on the Handicraft Sector of Jammu and Kashmir: an Economic Analysis International NGO Journal Vol. 7(5), pp. 78-83, December 2012 Available online at http:// www.academicjournals.org/INGOJ DOI: 10.5897/INGOJ12.020 ISSN 1993–8225 ©2012 Academic Journals Article Impact of turmoil on the handicraft sector of Jammu and Kashmir: An economic analysis Fayaz Ahamad* and Effat Yasmin Department of Economics, University of Kashmir Srinagar, India. Accepted 8 November 2012 The handicrafts of Jammu and Kashmir (J & K), namely, shawls, namdhas, wooden art-ware, papier- mache, crewel embroidery etc. are well known, yet the export from this sector has been of an average of around Rs. 20 crore per annum. However, the handicraft industry occupies an important position in the economy of J & K, which provides a gainful employment to more than 3 lakh people and too has the potential to generate more employment in near future. In absence of large scale industries in the State, handicrafts remained a key economic activity from times immemorial. Due to the instable political conditions and turmoil in the state, the performance of this sector got deteriorated. As per regression analysis the output of the sector has declined to a large extent. In this background, the paper will highlight the various aspects of turmoil on the handicraft sector of the state during the reference period. Key words: Turmoil, potential markets, militancy, economic setbacks, handicraft exports. INTRODUCTION The recent decades have proved challenging for nations the important sources of livelihood of local people such due to emergence and escalation of a wide variety of as tourism, horticulture and handicrafts industries. violent conflicts around the globe. Regardless of the Besides exacting extensive damage to the infrastructure motives, violent conflicts prove disastrous in all aspects- of the region, the violent conflict has discouraged private political, socio-cultural and economic. Needless to add, investment, pushing the economy towards stagnation. violent conflicts create atmosphere which stunts The downward trend of economy has been acutely felt economic growth, destroys civic life and sows seeds of since late 1980s when militancy gained momentum. It is distrust, frustration and maligns future generations. And a vicious circle in which violence has led to Kashmir is no exception to this. This emerging scenario underdevelopment and vice versa, and in this gruesome appropriately fits into the discourse on Kashmir conflict scenario it is the common people of the region who suffer that is quite complex. This conflict is pronounced as one the most (Evans, 2000). The last decade has witnessed of the most complicated situation wherein on the one side many remarkable developments in the world, and the two nuclear powers are involved and on the other side wide reach of globalization is one among them. the people of the Kashmir valley in the Indian state of Conventional territorial boundaries and related disputes Jammu and Kashmir (J & K) developed alienation against are challenged by increasing trans-border commercial the Indian federal rule (Schofield, 2000). The economic and cultural exchanges and popular acceptance of cost of the conflict cannot be confined to a particular democratic means of conflict resolution. The Kashmir sector of industry or investment prospects. It has affected conflict is no exception to it (Mir and Ain, 2010). Though the Kashmir issue cannot be resolved only by means of economic development, vibrant economic growth in the region would not only better the lives of local people but *Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]. Tel: may infuse spirit of reconciliation and harmony among 9906339158 them. Ahamad and Yasmin 79 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY scale enterprises, which have not been able to wean themselves from generous subsidies to compete and This study is descriptive and analytical. The study is mainly based integrate with the national market (Shekhawat, 2009). on secondary sources data; however information has also been obtained from primary sources which include interviews, comments, Thus, the state of Jammu and Kashmir represents a observations, opinion, notes, etc. of the persons concerned with paradox where sectors that are relatively unaided have handicrafts sector and also from experts. The required secondary managed to carve a niche for themselves in the global data has been collected from various issues of Digest of Statistics, economy, while sectors that are the recipient of state J & K Economic Review and Economic Survey and various reports largesse have not been able to do so. of Directorate of Handicrafts government of J & K. To workout the difference between annual trend value and actual value of production and exports of handicrafts during last three decades that is, before turmoil and during twenty years of turmoil period, the Production of handicrafts formula of regression has been used: Notwithstanding the fact that Kashmiri arts and crafts Y = a + bX (1) have enjoyed worldwide fame and name, their production Y = dependent variable; suffered to a large extent with the broke down of turmoil X = independent variable; in the valley in 1989. Not only their production but also a = intercept coefficient and b is the slope coefficient. The value of quality wise they are now less superior to the goods ‘a’ and ‘b’ is found by the following normal equations. produced in China, Nepal and Iran. Due to this reason, nowadays the export trade has not been able to capture ∑Y = Na + b∑X (2) its due share in the potential markets (Mahapatra and Shekhawat, 2008). The Table 1 shows year wise the 2 ∑XY = a∑X + b∑X (3) production of handicrafts of J & K during last three decades. The Table 1 reveals that the production of handicrafts RESULTS AND DISCUSSION has affected a lot during last 20 years of conflict. The value of production has deteriorated during 1989-90 as The state of Jammu and Kashmir and in particular the Rs.150 crores from Rs.154 crores in 1988-98, because Kashmir Valley has suffered severe economic setbacks this was the starting period of conflict in Kashmir and due to turmoil in the region over the past 20 years. Every during the peak seasons of turmoil i.e. from summer sector of economy has been affected, be it handicrafts 2008, 2009 and 2010, the production of handicrafts has production, the horticulture sector, medium and small- also deteriorated. scale industrial units, the tourism sector etc. What is The Figure 1 shows the production of handicrafts and noteworthy is that the bulk of this trade takes place trend value year wise during 1980-91 to 2010-11. As it is beyond the aegis of the state and through private hands evident from the figure that the actual value of production un-aided by the state. This again is ironically due to the during the period of 1989-90 to 1998-99 was lower than militancy that swayed the state in the 1990s. Itinerant the value of linear trend line, which shows that the Kashmiri handicraft merchants forced into hawking their production of handicraft sector has not flourished during wares house-to-house in many Indian cities became a this period. After that the production of handicrafts shows common sight. This strategy was necessitated by the fact an increasing trend up to the period of 2008 and from the that a major source of demand—tourists—had stopped peak seasons of turmoil, i.e. summer 2008, 2009 and visiting the valley (Omera, 1990). Soon Kashmiri 2010 the production of handicrafts has decreased a lot handicraft dealers had hit upon the novel idea of setting i.e. from Rs. 1614.59 during 2007-08 to Rs.1100 in 2008- up shop in those parts of India where visitors thronged, 09, Rs.1000 in 2009-10 and Rs. 325 in 2010-11. such as Goa, Delhi, and Kerala. Thus, Kashmiri handicrafts facing the vicissitudes of militancy adopted such measures and tactics whereby they were able to Exports of handicrafts overcome the limitations of the market defined by tourist arrivals in the Valley and integrate themselves with the Kashmiri handicrafts, especially its shawls and hand national and global economy. This sector did so without woven carpets, are also very renowned and have much help from the state and in extremely difficult economic potential in exports and the ability to create conditions. They were able to do so because handicrafts such handicrafts and export them to other areas of the remain a business where much of the production takes world in which such commodities are rare and valuable place indoors. Curfews do not affect production and could raise many women and families out of the difficult demands on infrastructure are few. Thus production is situation of poverty (Darakhshan, 2011). The Table 2 not affected by militancy. The nature of its markets does shows year wise exports of handicrafts of J & K state not call for a “just-in-time” system, and as such small during last three decades. disruptions in supply are easily absorbed. This is in The Table 2 that the export of handicrafts has marked contrast to sectors such as small and medium decreased during the initial years of conflict, that is, 80 Int. NGOJ. Table 1. Year-wise production of handicrafts and its trend value. Year Actual value of Production (Rs. in crores) Y=36.71X−146.30(Trend value of production) 1980-81 53.82 −109.59 1981-82 68.57 −72.88 1982-83 81.37 −36.17 1983-84 91.10 −0.54 1984-85 97.85 36.84 1985-86 105.00 73.96 1986-87 108.40 110.67 1987-88 109.29 147.38 1988-89 154.00 184.09 1989-90 150.00 220.80 1990-91 200.00 257.51 1991-92 220.00 294.22 1992-93 230.00 330.52 1993-94 240.00 367.64 1994-95 245.00 404.35 1995-96 250.00 441.06 1996-97 260.00 477.77 1997-98 260.00 514.48 1998-99 280.00 551.19 1999-00 633.03 587.90 2000-01 696.33 624.61 2001-02 765.94 661.32 2002-03 775.00 698.03 2003-04 821.53 734.74 2004-05 887.00 771.45 2005-06 900.00 808.16 2006-07 950.00 844.87 2007-08 1614.59 881.58 2008-09 1100.00 918.29 2009-10 1000.00 955.00 2010-11 325.00 991.71 Source: Directorate of Handicrafts J & K Government.
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